this is gps, the global public square. welcome. i'm fareed zakaria. the retaliatory attack that was called off. two nations brought to the brink of war. how did they get there and what would a war between the two look like? and water shortages in capetown.

does the answer i'll take you through this wild idea. but first here is my take. the massive protest we've been watching in hong kong highlights something we often tend to forget, the fragility of the chinese political system. china's rise has been something of a miracle. it is quite simply the most successful case of economic development in human history. the country's gdp has grown around 10% a year for 40 years, moving more than 850 million people out of poverty. in doing so, china has also proved to be the greatest exception to a near iron law of politics. decades of political science and research have shown that there is a fairly strong connection between economic growth and democracy. as countries modernize their economies, typically they're also forced to change their

societies and eventually their political systems to make them more open, accountable and democratic. now, there are outliers such as oil-rich countries, that gain their wealth without any need to modernize but china is the real outlier. china got richer but stayed resolutely nondemocratic. in recent years, the political system has become more oppressive, censorship has increased and the president has disindependenced with term limits for himself. what explains china's unique path to wealth without democracy? over the last few decades, china has actually been developing autocracy with trtic characteristics. reforms have made the administrative bureaucracy, once a stagnant communist behemoth more nimble, transparent and

accountable. it should be a type of political reform, she issues. officials move up through rigorous exams, evaluations and objective measures of results like economic growth, this exceedingly competitive system ensures quality and responsiveness, its defenders say. scholars argue that such a political model rests on the trust and faith in a mandarin governing class, a key feature of society. and yet one has to wonder good bureaucracy is not the same thing as democracy, which centers on the ability to both choose your leaders and throw them out of power. as for confucion societies, let's not forget hong kong and taiwan. both are thoroughly chinese societies with a deep demonstrated desire for democracy. the united states is now quarrelling with china on several fronts. in these struggles, americans

often make the mistake of thinking their adversary is 10 feet tall. first, it's not cheer china is an adversary, certainly not in the cold war sense, but rather a competitor. more important, while china has great strengths, it also has weaknesses. consider president xi jinping's situation. growth in china has slowed substantially. local and state-owned companies are borrowing vast sums of money. the consequence of its one child policy, classic example of the dangers of a dictatorship. perhaps above all, china has a political system that faces real pressure. in a global age of populism and anti-elitism, china is still ruled by distant elites, communist party retains power through the promise of growth and application of force.

it uses an elaborate system of censorship and increasingly espionage on its own people, facing a population that is not genetically or culturally different from those in taiwan or hong kong, where millions are making clear they don't want just good government or clever bureaucrats, but democracy. so the trade war with america might turn out to be one of xi's smaller problems. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column this week. and let's get started. president trump said the united states was, quote, cocked and loaded, unquote to attack three different sites in iran. trump went on, when he was

informed 150 people might die, he stopped. i think it's important to talk about what a war between iran and the u.s. would look like. the director of the middle east security program at the center for a new american security joins us now. ilan, welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> explain to us, lay out what you see the most likely scenario for both the american strike but as importantly the iranian response. >> sure. you start with a very limited american strike. what the president's advisers would say to him is, look, we're just going to respond and hit the target that hit us. and this will go just like syria did in 2017-2018, when president trump decided to launch very

limited strikes against al assad in syria. the difference is that iran is not syria. iran is much more capable than syria. it has missiles it can launch at the gulf, hit our ships with. it has various proxies in iraq, yemen, syria, and the middle east and launch terrorist attacks against u.s. embassies and other facilities. so, iran might decide, well, we don't want to get into a major conflict with the united states. or it might decide to retaliate and respond, in which case we could be off to the races. that is the real danger. >> and what would the united states do in the event of some kind of iranian response along the fronts you're describing? they have multiple -- you say they have leverage and interests and capacities in multiple areas but the u.s. also has bases all over the persian gulf. so, what would it look like if the u.s. were to try to respond

to iranian efforts to kind of increase tensions or ratchet up violence from lebanon to yemen to syria to iraq? >> sure. well, what iran would do first is try to hit the u.s. with one of the types of options, stay away from going into an all-out conflict. if iran launches a terrorist attack, we might hit a terrorist training camp inside of iran. if iran hits more gulf -- launches missiles at our ships, we might start hitting the various missiles iran launched at our ships or from the sites from which they would launch. very quickly you get into this tit-for-tat. and when you are, the military comes to the president where they say we have options where we could go higher and take all of this out, all the various iranian military capabilities and that's where you might end up which now would not look like

syria 2017-18. it would look like iraq 1991 where the united states were to launch a limited war that would last a few weeks to try to sink all of iran's navy and take out all the capabilities that iran has. iran would exact a major cost in such a conflict with missiles falling on abu dhabi, riyadh. and israel responding in kind of a land invasion to lebanon if it's unable to protect itself through the use of missile defense systems alone. at that point the conflict starts to dramatically escalate. the bottom line is that it would be very bad for the united states and its regional partners. it would be worse for iran, who would have much of its military decimated but would maintain a lot of these abilities to launch proxy attacks at various facilities so you could have terrorist attacks going on for

years of different kinds and you would have also to have the united states stay in a region after a conflict like this for years on end. the whole notion of pivoting to asia or focusing on power competition would be over because we would have a very angry, still very capable country three times the size of iraq in the middle of a very strategic region that we would have to contain for years on end. >> the iranians seem to recognize what you're describing, which is that any kind of escalation, probably while it has all kinds of negative consequences for the u.s., it has worse consequences for iran. so, what they have done, it seems to me, they feel like they're backed in a corner, the trump administration is trying to squeeze them. they've launched a series of deniable escalations. they've gotten the huthis to attack in saudi arabia and done some of these applause ebly deniable attacks themselves.

what they're banking on is that this is not enough of a provocation for the trump administration to go all out to war against iran. >> i think that's right. i'm getting increasingly worried that they don't exactly understand our escalation ladder and we don't exactly understand theirs. >> thanks, ilan. fascinating stuff. to read his piece in foreign affairs, go to my twitter feed for a link. i'm @fareedzakaria. how did america and iran get to the brink? a great debate when we return. discover card. hi, do you have a travel card? we do! the discover it® miles card. earn unlimited 1.5 miles on every purchase, plus we'll match your miles at the end of your first year. you'll match my miles? yeah! mile for mile! and no blackout dates or annual fee. nice! i was thinking about taking a scuba diving trip! i love that. or maybe go surfing... or not. ok. maybe somewhere else. maybe a petting zoo. can't go wrong. can't get eaten.

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can lift you right up. expedia. everything you need to go. john bolton has never been shy about his hostility toward iran. that's been true in all of his roles in public and private life, no different since he has been national security adviser, a post he has been in for a little over a year now. last september, he warned iran there would be hell to pay if it continued to lie and cheat and deceive. he warned iran we will come after you. just last month he said that the u.s. was sending a career and unmistakable message to the iranian regime that any attack on united states interests or on those of our all is would be met with unrelenting force. is john bolton responsible for the ratcheting up of hostilities? if so, is this approach the appropriate one? joining me now, middle east specialist at the cia is now

senior fellow at the foundation for defense of democracies and peter is a professor at the school of journalism and old friend of the show. let me ask you, peter, it goes beyond john bolton. in a sense, what's happened here is that the trump administration has deliberately backed iran into a corner. it pulled out of the deal. it stopped issuing any waivers. now iran is facing an economic death sentence almost. and do you think that it has been baiting iran, in a sense, trying to get it to respond in some way? >> yes. not only do i think that, but the united states military, according to reports, think that. the europeans think that. they made the weather and then they stand there and say darn, it's rain iing. right? we pulled out of the iranian deal. we then not only imposed

sanctions but demanded other countries not do business with iran as well, basically to try to destroy the iranian economy, whose people are oppressed not only by their own government but the fact that now they can't buy medicines. general dunford, joint chiefs of staff, said this will incite retaliation. europeans said it. now, lo and behold, it's happened and the trump administration is shocked. >> i'm guessing you have a different narrative as to what is going on. >> yeah. i mean, one, certainly when president trump decided to withdraw from the jcpoa, which was a highly defective, deficient agreement, the iranians were going to get upset. they liked that agreement for a variety of reasons. it was quite a good one from their perspective. i'm not surprised they've gotten cranky and certainly the president has decided to engage in a massive pressure campaign

against them. it's not just john bolton driving that. i think there's pretty strong agreement between bolton and mike pompeo on that, the famous 12-point speech was co-written by the two of them. >> but to what end? what i'm a little unsure of, it feels like a reflex more than a strategy. is the goal regime change, to get them back to the negotiating table? is the goal simply to inflict pain? it seems to me it's pressure without a strategy behind the pressure. >> i think there is a strategy. but i think it's fair to say that it's conflicted. the president, obviously, wants to have new negotiations. i think it's fair to say that john bolton believes that would be a mistake. i think pompeo probably is more in the direction of john bolton, that he doesn't really believe that diplomacy is going to work with the islamic republic, but he is the secretary of state and he has certainly said publicly that he's in favor of

negotiations. so, in the meantime, i think they're just going to adopt sort of a containment minus approach. that is, they're going to deny the islamic republic billions of dollars of hard currency. they aren't going to really push back against it regionally, but for the time being, they are going to block a land route in syria until the president changes his mind and withdraws those troops. so, there is a coherent approach there, but there are contradictions within it that i don't think they're debilitating, but are certainly annoying. >> it does feel like it's sort of like maximum pressure and then watch and see what might happen and the dangers of miscalculation, but all of it, peter, is premised on the idea that iran is this uniquely dangerous country in the middle east. and i want to ask you, is that fundamentally true? >> no, i don't think so. i think iran has a bureaucratic

regime. the saudis, their main region alregional antagonists, i see no moral distinction between the iranians, saudis or emirates for that matter. we should be trying to deescalate and trying to have leverage with both sides so we can prevent this cold war from turning into a hot war. we have no idea. and john bolton has no idea what would happen if we started a war. this man, john bolton, has been calling explicitly for war with iran for more than a decade and he has never answered basic questions about what would happen the day after. for goodness sakes, in the shadow of the iraq war, how can we tolerate an american government that was so cavalierly moving to the brink

of a conflict given what we know about the costs of the last one? >> that does seem to be a reasonable question, which is all this pressure easily could lead to a spiral that gets us into a conflict. as i say, it's not clear to me what the end goal is but isn't that -- isn't iraq war a cautionary tale? >> let me say one thing first. i think it is a bit much to make a moral equivalence between the islamic republic and saudi arabia. i'm no fan of saudi arabia or the crown prince but iran has aided and abetted and slaughtered hundreds of thousands of people in syria. there's simply no equivalent of that on the saudi side. >> you don't think saudi actions in yemen are -- >> no, i do not. i do think the -- i think it's fair to say that one always has to be conscious of when the fire -- you know, when the guns start firing, that you need to

have some idea of your enemy. you need to have a good idea of what his capacity is, what his limitations are, and you need to know what your own are. this is basic 101. if you need to engage in any type of engagement approach, however limited it may be, by definition that means you're willing to risk conflict. if you're going to walk away from the jcpoa and tell the iranians, no, we're not going to permit you to gain a nuclear weapon within a decade, that means you're going to risk a conflict. i mean, this is sort of basic. the problem with trump is that he seems to, at times, want it both ways. that is, he suggests -- his rhetoric suggests he might be willing to risk conflict. but at the same time, his actions suggest that actually he's quite dovish, that he is, in some ways, obama 2.0. and he's not nearly belicose as he seems and may end up being just a twitter tiger. >> one has to wonder what the

world will look at this and see a pattern after a while. a guy who has bluffed much of his life. >> exactly. >> and appears to be doing exactly that. >> exactly. >> i'm sure we'll get back to this. thank you both. next on gps, india's sixth biggest city is dry, almost totally out of drinking water. capetown has had similar problems for a while now. one man has a remarkable solution. it involves towing an iceberg. that story, when we come back. everyone's got to listen to mom.

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now for our what in the world segment. it's that time of the year, temperatures are rising in much of the world and for many it aggravates an all-too-frequent problem, water shortage. simple numbers, as environmentalists will tell you, water supply is constant but population, therefore the demand for water, keeps growing. and it is only going to get worse. by 2050, the population is expected to swell to nearly 10 billion. so, how do we get more water? there's a wild idea recently in a fascinating story in bloomberg

newsweek, tow icebergs off antarctica to less icy shores, a capetown based marine salvager. capetown desperately needs water. its taps nearly ran dry last year. iceberg towing may sound crazy but a team of experts have been assembled who believe it can be done. they're not the first to pursue it. iceberg towing has been floated to solve problems from southern california to the gulf. many previous efforts have been met with skepticism but that has not deterred him. his team has a plan, to sail to a point near gulf island, south of capetown. from there, they would identify the perfect iceberg. it would be more than 3,000 feet

long and 800 feet deep, weighing 125 million tons. then two tug boats would lasso the iceberg with a two-mile long net made from an exceptionally strong rope. they would pull the rope guided by tug boats to the cape. 90 days later, the iceberg would hit ground 20 miles off the coast of cape town where it could be harvested for water. sloane says he has secured financing for the maiden voyage which would cost more than $200 million but he still needs the government to give him the green light. if he did succeed, which by no means certain, he said the iceberg would provide capetown with 130 million liters of water a day for a full year. that may seem like a lot but according to sloane's calculations, it is just 20% of capetown's annual water needs. that's right.

125 million ton iceberg would supply just one-fifth of the city's water. that should make clear the scale of the problem and capetown's problems are the worlds. the u.n. projects by 2030, demand for water will exceed availability by 40%. in africa alone, the continent that will drive this century's population explosion, demand will rise by almost 300%. lassoing icebergs isn't the only solution. look at israel that has made huge progress with plants that remove the salt from ocean water. the approach is often dismissed as prohibitively expensive and energy intensive but it does work, according to reports. half of israel's water comes from desalination plants. it produces more water now than it consumes. leaders will have to consider investing serious sums into securing a resource that many now take for granted.

the important thing, whether you're looking at antarctica or nearer shores, is to think big, as big as the problem. next on gps, we're one step closer to knowing who will be the next leader of the united kingdom? i was in london as the votes were coming in. i have a guest who will talk about what it will mean for britain, brexit and the world. jardiance asks: while managing your type 2 diabetes- why think about your heart? because with my type 2 diabetes, i'm more likely to have a fatal heart attack or stroke.

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conservatives, have whittled down their choice of leaders by two. the winner will become the country's next prime minister. rory stewart had been one of the top candidates. he wanted britain to stay closer to europe and wanted the torreys to attract younger and diverse voters, a graduate of eaton, oxford, once private tutor to princes william and harry, helped to run providences in iraq and walked across afghanistan. but on wednesday, he was knocked out of contention. welcome back, rory. >> thank you. >> you've known boris johnson for a long time. he has gotten as far as he has to promising to be the hardest of the hard brexiters. is he going to betray his hard brexit allies and work out some

kind of compromise or move the other direction? >> this is what his supporters disagree on. half his supporters said no, no, no, he looked me in the eye and said he would deliver the hardest brexit. half of his supporters said no, no, he looked me in the eye and he has promised he would never do anything like that. it seems he's leaving in october. >> britain is leaving? >> sorry, yes, he's going to take britain out. the challenge is, again, he's saying before the 31st of october, he will negotiate a radically new deal with europe and europe has been clear again and again that no such deal is forthcoming. legally in the extension they granted the united kingdom, that the agreement they signed with theresa may cannot be reopened. one of the arguments i was

trying to make is look, if you say you're going to get a radically new deal out of europe by october 31st it's simply not true. so that means if you're really saying that you will leave the european union regardless of the 31st of october, then you're signing up for a very, very damaging, destructive no-deal brexit. >> what do you think is anima animating this populous takeover of the torrey party? they don't like radical change. do you think this is something that will upend britain's economic relationship with its largest trading partner? is it culture, economics? you're a student of history and political ideas. >> i think it's very important to understand that for many people, particularly older people in britain, they have felt angry with european union for 40 years. so, they felt that they could join simply a free trade

agreement. it felt to them as though what they signed up for in the 1970s was something like nafta and they felt there's been a push in the last 40 years to make it feel a bit like if you were potentially an american voter who agreed to join with canada and mexico and suddenly discovered some city with its own parliament passing laws and telling you what to do. for them it felt like an independence movement. like any independence movement, south sudan, ultimately people don't care too much about the economics. >> do you think we are then entering into a world of greater nationalism and protectionism? it seems to be happening everywhere. >> ironically, greater nationalism but not protectionism. nationalist radical free traders. they want to open up to singapore. they're modernists. they want deals with the united states, china.

and free market fundamentalists. they're not like donald trump. but i think what is like the united states politics is i found myself trying to argue for things that nine, ten months ago seemed to be obviously true. no-deal brexit would be very damaging to our economy and finding 70% of conservative party members said no-deal brexit would be fine. and eye thought somehow by getting out of communicating on such a view i would be able to win that argument and explain it people what i believe to be the truth and i failed but i'm still failing to win an argument that should be easy to win because every nobel prize winner economist is on my side, oecd, everybody is reconfirming my hypothesis but i still can't convince people of it. one of the questions is how do you learn to do politics in a way that is radical?

trying to use the trumpian method of running around with twitter and that seems increasingly difficult because in britain we've gone from a bell shape where most political opinion sat in the sensor to a u-shape where most of the votes are now in the extremes. for somebody like me, trying to hold the center that's an uncomfortable position to be in. >> pleasure to have you. >> thank you very much. >> up next, china's president xi spent the end of the week in north korea. what is behind the strange relationship? we will explain when we come back. i assembled it myself last night. i think i did an ok job. just ok? what if something bad happens? we just move to the next town. just ok is not ok. especially when it comes to your network.

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a book that you're ready to share with the world? get published now, call for your free publisher kit today! president xi crossed the border on thursday. kim jong-un laid out the pomp and circumstance to welcome his protector and sponsor. it is an unusual relationship and a very important one. to help us understand it, i've asked a professor of history and politics of modern china at the university of oxford to come join me. pleasure to have you on. you know this history so well. these are sort of -- this is an odd couple. these are two -- north korea's

only ally. that relationship comes from a very different time when mao and kim il-sun, founder of north korea, were the two rogues, two revolutionary radicals in the world, trying to foment instability everywhere. >> that's right. we use the phrase odd couple. we have to remember in that famous movie oscar and felix were friend bus quarrelled all the time. the bond was strong but forged in war. essentially kim il-sun, you mentioned as the founding father of north korea and chairman mao, the chinese leader who conquered china in 1949 both had their revolutions forged in the japanese in the 1930s and '40s, the asian side of world war ii. being relatively young, middle-aged communists fighting

against an external enemy bonded them together as communists but nationalists, making sure their borders never be breeached and those ties stayed strong over the decade. >> can xi jinping tell his counterpart make a deal with the americans on the nuclear issue and would he want to do so? does he have the power and does he have the interest? >> i've talked to this about chinese policymakers over the years, they like to roll their eyes and say we tell the north koreans what to do and they pay no attention to us i thought sometimes that's a convenient excuse for the fact that china has a lot of leverage over north korea. sanctions were imposed a couple of years ago, the amount of chinese imports at least on official figures went down by 88 prs they really have control over a major economic lever. but that having been said, north korea is a very proud society.

does not like to be seen to be pushed around in terms of what it does. in the first few years of the current kim, kim jong-un's period in power, he was not invited to beijing. there was a major military parade in tiananmen square and the south korean president at the time was invited to be on the parade and the north korean president was not. the relationship has had to come back from some pretty low lows. >> and is it possible that xi will try to link his influence in north korea, such as it is, with the trade deal? in other words, could he say to the americans, look, if you stop pestering me, i can deliver more? >> i think he will. or at least float that idea. there's a grand bargain to be made between the various crisis currently operating in that part of the world. one is the u.s./china trade war, trade dispute that rumbles on

and the north korean nuclear problem, much more in the headlines a year or so ago, has not gone away. now the question that's being asked, i suspect, both in beijing and pyongyang is how much consistency is there on the u.s. side, the donald trump administration and would they be willing to negotiate that kind of grand bargain? if there was and there was a bargain that, for instance, guaranteed the security of north korea, that china maintained a friendly socialist country on the border on the northeast, that might be -- americans have a role as well as the chinese. >> what do you think xi jinping makes of the trump administration in donald trump? >> all the reports we have from the inside of china is that there have been a lot of very nonplussed people at the top in beijing. the starting point was that actually this is unlike any other american president, a bit more rash, exuberant but will give him a feast in the city,

imperial royalty. the fact that the trump administration has, first of all, pushed so hard on the trade issue and, second, made it, as you will know, fareed shall the only bipartisan issue in washington, d.c. seriously worried negotiators on the chinese side. and that means at the moment they are spending a lot of time, a, working out how to strengthen the domestic economy, in case it goes on for a long time and second working out what the next move is. >> fascinating. pleasure to have you on, rana. >> pleasure to be here, fareed. thank you. >> and we will be back. don't forget if you miss a show, go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my itunes podcast. ... for strength and energy! whoo-hoo! great-tasting ensure. with 9 grams of protein and 26 vitamins and minerals. ensure, for strength and energy. look for savings in your weekly paper.

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after a week of blackouts, which country experienced the most internet shutdowns in 2018, ethiopia, india, russia or china? stay tuned and we'll tell you

the correct answer. my book of the week is george will's "the conservative sensibility." he returns to that calling in the superb account of american conservatism. he makes history, philosophy and anecdote to create something rare, an important, serious book that is eminently readable. and now for the last look. humans produce roughly 330 million tons of plastic waste a year. that is nearly equal to the mass of the world's entire human population. we know that this has a dramatic impact on oceans from garbage patches to killing sea life. now it's become a bigger problem on land. why? because we're making the material far faster than we can dispose of it. of course, there are efforts to stem this tide. we've seen initiatives to ban plastic bags from california to tanzania. some nations, like japan, are

pledging to push plastic out of the picture in a matter of years by replacing it with biodegradable or reusable alternatives. our plastic problem makes worse a key global divider, as wealthier nations ship their waste abroad to poorer ones. after china banned plastic imports in 2018, the western world turned to asia's other developing nations but now other countries are following china's lead to keep from becoming the west's new wasteland. vietnam plans to ban plastic imports entirely and malaysia is returning hundreds of plastic waste to its home countries. canada finally agreed to retrieve its mislabeled trash from a port in the philippines. there are growing actions being taken, we need to take many more or else the mark of our modern civilization that will live on for centuries to come will be its everlasting, indestructible

mountains of plastic trash. the answer to my gps challenge question this week is b, india. according to the annual freedom report india had over 100 shutdowns in 2018, most notably when a mob killed two people after a false video warned against chinese kidnappers. such blackouts were up 27% from the entire year. china, the home of the great firewall actually rarely uses the blunt instrument of a shutdown, relying on a complex system of censorship and monitoring to earn its spot as top internet restricter in the world. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week and i will see you next week. hear you. we're working together to do just that. bringing you more great tasting beverages with less sugar or no sugar at all. smaller portion sizes,

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i'm brian stelter. this is "reliable sources," how the media really works, how the news gets made and how all of us can help make it better. brand new interview from president trump. we'll unpack it all with our expert panel. plus, a whistle blower speaking out about what it's like to keen out a social media dump. a moderator is here with me, live. lawmakers are taking action to memorialize the victims. there's an announcement happening first on this show in a few minutes. first, i'm live from los angeles this sunday. front page of the "l.a.