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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  July 14, 2019 10:00am-11:00am PDT

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life. to the fullest. this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you around the united states and the world, i'm fre fareed zakaria. we'll start with tensions, gun boats, sanctions and economic misery. where is this all going? i'll talk to one of the deal's top negotiators, former secretary of energy. then an undiplomatic response from president trump. >> ear not big fans of that man. >> after diplomatic cables are leaked. the darroch affair.
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>> he found it necessary to leave his position as ambassador. >> whatever to the special relationship between the united states and the united kingdom. i will ask the britain's former foreign secretary david mill band. also hailed as a beacon of democracy in the middle east, now as an election fight heats up, some say it's a democracy on the brink. i will talk to thomas friedman, who believes that the future of israel itself is on the line. but first here is my take. the best illustration of the incoherence of the trump administration's strategy toward iran came last week in a white house press release. it read, there is little doubt that even before the deals existence, iran was violating its terms. the white house has not subsequently explained how a country can violate the terms of
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a deal before that deal existed. this is not the only example of incoherence. when donald trump announced last month that he had called off military strikes against iran, he said it was because he learned that an estimated 150 iranians would have died. instead he further tightened economic sanctions against iran. the sanctioning being levied against iran are having a massive and crippling effect on the country, says jeffrey sacks, an economist who has studied the effects of such measures. he notes, sanctions like these are known to cause a significant rise in mortality. given the size of iran's population, around 81 million, this is sure to be far larger than 150 deaths. keep in mind, the people who would have died in the military strikes likely would have been iranian soldiers. those who are now dying because of sanctions are newborn babies, mothers, the elderly, and sick.
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the trump administration has created a humanitarian crisis in iran and a geopolitical crisis in the middle east with no strategy to resolve either. the iran had forced to commit it would never develop nuclear weapons, ship away 98% of its enriched uranium, destroy it's plutonium reactor and agree to limits and inspections for 10 to 25 years. they confirmed iran was adhering to the deal. by with drawing from the pact, the trump administration has allowed iran to start moving away from those limits. for example, tehran had agreed it would only develop 300 kilograms of low enriched uranium until 2030. last week iran exceeded that limit justifying its move by pointing out that the united states had itself abrogated the pact. u.s. actions toward iran have
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also created a rift within the western alliance. the europeans are in open revolt against washington's unilateralism and even made efforts to establish an alternative payment mechanism to the dollar for trade with iran. as the news tightens around iran, it has been reacting with incremental actions by its own military or more often by associated militias from yemen to the persian gulf. each of these actions then produces a reaction from the united states or saudi arabia. in other words, trump has sharpsharp ly ratcheted regional tensions with no good plan to resolve them. the trump administration is hoping for capitulation from iranians in which they will return to the negotiating table and accept a deal far more onerous than the one they signed in 2015. it's possible this will happen but far more likely that this regional cold war gets worse and
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worse. even if there were some kind of temporary iranian concessions, born out of desperation, they will surely not last. wounded, embittered powers always find a way to return with a vengeance. the trump administration seems to forget that the iranian civilization has been a major player in the middle east for thousands of years. it has a electronic tradition of nationalism and state craft and history of resisting foreign domination. the path to stability in the middle east does not lie in strangling iran. that will only sow the seeds creating a more unstable region and one in which the united states will find itself mired for decades. alas, this is the path on which we find ourselves moving. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started.
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let's keep talking about iran and the future of the deal with one of america's top negotiators of the deal. he was brought into the talks because he was the energy secretary at the time and a nuclear physicist, once head of m.i.t.'s physics department. secretary, pleasure to have you on. >> thanks, fareed, pleasure to be back. >> it seems to me iranians are engaging in almost staged violations. they are abrogating in ways they are signaling that are sort of they claim permitted under the deal. what is the goal of these small steps they are taking? >> i think it's very much as you say. they certainly are not showing any evidence and do not want to project that they are going after a nuclear weapon.
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but what they are saying, they are not getting the benefits of the agreement after the united states pulled out. and really ramped up what are called secondary sanctions dramatically, cut off oil revenues. so they are making a signal very, very clearly, i would say especially to the europeans that they need some solution to their -- to the economic benefits that they are being deprived of. and they will continue to ratchet up without causing, in some sense, a panic they are pursuing a nuclear weapon but making the case quite clearly that something needs to be done. i might add, i think it's very important to remember that the agreement, the jcpoa has built into it a minimum of one year for iran to assemble the
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material for a nuclear weapon no matter what they do. if they go full out and even make no attempt to disguise it, it would still take them a year. again, we have to put these so far small violations in a technical sense in perspective without diminishing the fact this they are, in fact, violations of some of the key parameters of the agreement. >> the big deal would be if they were to get rid of the inspectors and the cameras. the deal has this very intrusive inspection process. dozens of inspectors at every site from uranium mines to the labs to the production facilities, is there any sign they are trying to dismantle that inspection regime? >> well, so far not. and fareed, i think you've hit the nail on the head. frankly it's not emphasized enough that, in my view, i said this many times, the most important part of the agreement is, in fact, the verification
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measures that are unique to iran, much tougher than any other country is subject to. first of all, that's an indication that we actually had a broad spectrum of major powers. the united states, european countries, russia and china all taking note of the fact that iran did have a structured nuclear weapons program through 2003. and therefore the agreement is not built on trust. the agreement is built upon, as you say, very intrusive and very unique inspection measures. >> the trump administration seems to be hoping that all this pressure will bring the iranians back to the negotiating table and negotiate an even tougher deal, longer time periods, include ballistic missiles, et cetera. you spent a long time negotiating with the iranians. what is the likely prospect of that? >> i think right now it's not very likely, unless there is a
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much more creative proposal that provides benefits on both sides. and one reason is, quite frankly, we all know the supreme leader obviously approved the agreement. but in doing so he was consistently saying publicly, you know, you really can't trust the americans. well, the u.s. pulled out and that certainly did nothing but reinforce his argument. it's going to be very, very hard, i think, for these two leaders to come back together with a serious negotiation. we hope that can happen. but the conditions are certainly not ideal to put it mildly. >> so the trump administration as you say has ratcheted up the pressure tremendously. the iranians are responding in various ways. does it worry you that this kind of escalation spiral, without a clear, you know, exit strat by,
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without a clear ramp that people can take, could lead to miscalculations? >> absolutely. i am frankly terrified of that possibility. i do believe that ultimately both the iranian government and our administration and our military do not want a major military confrontation. but as you say, once you start getting into tit for tat, and the tits and tats are often asymmetric, there could be military strike, cyber responses versus across the middle east activities by iranian proxies against american assets and american personnel. this has every possibility of going out of control. >> ernest moniz, always a pressure to have you on. >> thank you, fareed. >> next on "gps," the future of the special relationship with
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united kingdom after trump's twitter tirade against the ambassador and prime minister. what is the future of brexit? i will talk to former british foreign secretary david mill brand when we come back. have a discount with another wireless carrier? t-mobile will match it. need a few more reasons to switch? 1. do you like netflix? sure you do. that's why it's on us. 2. unlimited data. use as much as you want, when you want. 3. no surprises on your bill. taxes and fees included. so, if you have a discount, bring it to t-mobile. we'll match it and give you great benefits.
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in the white house fresh out of the bath and stark naked, churchill uttered these words, the prime minister of great britain has nothing to conceal from the president of the united states. that statement to many encapsulates washington's long special relationship with westminster. the friendship has been shaken in recent years but this week saw a new low in the aftermath of british ambassador kim darroch's trump cables leaked. in them he was frank about what he was seeing and hearing calling the administration inept among other things. trump responded angrily and nasayly not just toward the ambassador by the prime minister as well. joining me david miliband, the former secretary. david, you knew kim darroch. >> i still know him and he's alive and well i'm pleased to say. >> what did you think of him when you dealt with him professionally. >> he was an outstanding ambassador. the president called him pompous and stupid and those are the last words you would use for kim
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darroch. he was a worldly man. he is a worldly man. he was very inciteful about america, having talked to him during his time here, he made a point of knowing the washington game but also getting out into the country. so he wasn't completely surprised by the victory of president trump. he's a very astute watcher of the american scene. i think we now have a really unprecedented situation. the last time the united states government asked an ambassador to leave was in 1856. so this really is -- you called it a low point and i think you're right. it's now a relationship with a lot of contempt on all sides. >> what's striking about this, everybody understand ambassadors are required to be frank. it helps each country. for donald trump, this seems to be, you know, it's personal. he feels the personal insult. do you think this seems more so than with any previous administration? you've dealt with a lot of countries. the degree to which trump
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personalizes everything. >> two worrying things about it. one, why does the president really care? hasn't he got bigger thanks to worry about than the ambassador to the uk with a cable from two years ago. secondly, it's the sense that everything is a battle. actually, the darroch relationship with the administration was one that had breadth and depth and a brexit angle to this as well. britain has put itself outside the european community of nations, the european structure. that lives britain peculiarly vulnerable in the global village. obviously, i think president trump smells some weakness there. this is ironic because the great claim of the brexiteers was throw off european chains and march around the world doing trade deals. what is becoming clear britain is more like a cork bobbing on the open sea if it goes ahead
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with brexit, so far no deal brexit. theres a brexit angle as well as a bilateral angle to it. >> speaking of which boris johnson, the thing that precipitated kim's resignation likely incoming prime minister refused to support him. all the others did, the prime minister, the foreign minister, do you think that was a mistake? >> it was utterly spineless on boris johnson's part. the idea that you can't defend your own ambassador, and not even understand it's the most basic thing to do. if a country can't choose its own ambassador to a country, it really is in a low point. boris johnson may be known to some of your viewers. he was a former mayor of london, member of parliament. since then he is the put tiff next prime minister. all the polls suggest he's going to win the conservative leadership contest. he's got there by hiding his views.
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he's hard to track down. the journalists haven't been able to pin him down. what he's foisting everything on is the defense of the idea britain should hold open a no deal brexit from the your peeb union. in other words after three years of negotiation say we're not going to get a deal and we're going to take the consequences. that really is dangerous. >> because it's so dangerous, a lot of people think there might be -- this actually opens up or widens the possibility of a second referendum or parliamentary election that is essentially a referendum. i was in london a couple weeks ago. lots of people still hope that in such a circumstance you would go back to london and -- >> i would certainly want to campaign -- i do campaign and would campaign in a second referendum and i campaign for one. look, in a way it slightly embarrasses me to have to yet again explain to your viewers why britain is in a terrible mess but we are in a terrible mess. the wrecking ball at britain's constitution, never mind the
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economy represented by brexit is really severe. where we are today, there is a rising chance of a no deal brexit. it would be lunacy, i think, to go ahead with it. nonetheless, that is the demand of brexiteers. bizarrely, although theresa may is dead, her brexit deal is not dead. lots of people are talking about boris johnson applying some lipstick to this withdrawal deal and try to sell it to brexiteers. the second referendum isn't dead. three years on from the referendum, it's clear the promises of the brexiteers carry no water at all. the brexit they promise is not available. that's why people like me are saying the british people deserve a dhoons decide whether they want to go ahead with this breach with our european neighbors. >> we will keep watching and perhaps hope to see you in london one of these days soon. david miliband, pleasure. >> thank you. next on "gps," tom friedman says the future of israel is on the line in its upcoming elections. i'll ask him to explain why when
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country you admire is on the line. that powerful sentence was in the opening paragraph of tom friedman's "new york times" column this week. so how is israel on the line? tom friedman joins me now. his most recent book is "thank
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you for being late" an optimist's guide to thriving in the age of accelerations. tom, pleasure to have you on. >> great to be with you, fareed. >> you argued that this is not really just about differences in policy, attitudes even towards palestinians of the west bank, this is about the future of israel's democracy if benjamin netanyahu gets elected. explain what you mean. >> things intersecting here. one, netanyahu was basically charged with fraud and breach of trust by the attorney general, an attorney general he nominated. so that is a very serious charge. netanyahu could be going to jail. that's on one track. on the other track, israel had an election in april. before that election, a lot of israelis suspected that netanyahu, if he won, was going
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to build a coalition, and the conditions of joining that coalition would be that the members agreed once they get their majority in the israeli parliament, they will pass a law that says a sitting prime minister cannot be indicted. when the israel supreme court would strike that law down as illegal, they would then pass another law that would spay it' making the supreme court sub serve yanet to its will. it would in effect turn israel into a jewish banana republic. in the end, though, what happened was the only parties who would kind of go for that banana republic deal were right wing zealot religious parties and ultra-orthodox parties. they had netanyahu over a barrel. he was going to go to jail. they could raise their demands. what were their demands? they want annexation of the west bank. in the end netanyahu actually
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couldn't strike a deal because he lost so many other potential allies who didn't want to go along with his banana republic solution. now we have another election september 17th. this time everyone knows how what netanyahu is up to. if israel were to elect netanyahu, and he were to put together a government that basically traded some form of creeping annexation in the west bank to save the prime minister from criminal charges, every friend of israel in the world, jewish and non-jewish, would have to make an ethical choice. are you ready to continue to support an israel that is turned into a jewish banana republic? i tell you, fareed, that question will rip apart every synagogue, every jewish institution, every friendly forum toward israel on any college campus around the world. something very big is at stake here. this election is not a rerun of
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the last election. this election is about the core issues of israel's identity as a jewish democracy. >> what you're describing in terms of the proposal is part of what would seem like a disturbing trend, the kind of law you're describing, this is the kind of thing erdogan has tried to do in turkey, this is the thing viktor has tried temperature in hungary when he celebrated idea of not being a liberal democracy or but iliberal democracy. >> exactly. you wrote the book on that, fareed. it's extremely important. the global trend where you have majoritarian leaders in power, what they do in power they attack all the institutions that can affect their power, media, civil, and netanyahu is going down that in a textbook way. it's extremely dangerous. unfortunately our administration, the trump
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administration, has been willing to be a willing accomplice to this trend. >> what does the landscape now look like with ahud barack, the former prime minister jumping n in? does it change things much? >> it changes things there was a conspiracy of silence by blue and white and netanyahu's party. netanyahu's party didn't want to talk about creeping annexation on the west bank and blue and white didn't want to talk about it either because they thought it would alienate voters. enter ehud barak, a former prime minister, now 77 years old, the one titan of israeli politics that netanyahu is afraid of, they are really peers. he's basically come in and put everything on the table i just described. he said we've got to talk about -- he called his party the democracy party. people have to understand that
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israel's democracy is at stake here. and the threat we are talking about every bit the equal of the threat of iranian nuclear weapon. i think one shouldn't focus on barak. the question is whatever party he forms help catalyze the whole center left, particularly labor party, merits, a more left party, and maybe a new barak party. every center vote, align with blue and white to get every center vote, enough they can put together a coalition or even a national unity government where maybe part of likud breaks off, join part of the center left because they say we do not want to be a jewish banana republic. something so big is at stake in this election, fareed. this is about the core identity of israel as a jewish democracy. >> tom friedman, pleasure to have you on.
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>> thank you, fareed. next on "gps," you may recycle, drive an electric car, have solar panels on your house, that won't make much difference unless asha acts in a way to combat climate change as well. a plan to make that happen when we come back. that's what happens in golf nothiand in life.ily. i'm very fortunate i can lean on people, and that for me is what teamwork is all about. you can't do everything yourself. you need someone to guide you and help you make those tough decisions,
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united kingdom piers morgan asked him about what was probably the most glaring challenge of the century, the climate crisis. trump said the united states had cleanest climate in the world before denigrating other countries. >> china, russia, many countries have not very good air in terms of pollution and cleanliness. >> donald trump is pointing to a real problem here. if we don't tackle from aishah, it will not make much difference. that region emits more carbon dioxide than anywhere in the world. the reason is coal. two-thirds of china and three-quarters of india's electricity was generated by coal. as "washington post" notes, emission emissions could increase.
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the green new deal focus on the west ignoring this inconvenient truth. poor countries won't be able to turn away from fossil fuels unless rich countries help them get access to cleaner, often more expensive forms of energy. leaders have known this for some time but they have never quite figured out how to act on it. the harvard economist offers an idea, a world carbon bank. he said in an interview to "gps" could be modelled on the world bank with secretary and technical staff. there would be a lot of details to hammer out but it would help poor countries wean themselves off fossil fuels by new technologies and projects. it would funded by world bank through bonds backed by rich countries. it could partially be funded through a carbon tax on rich countries. a world carbon bank could solve many problems. for one, fragmented. dozens of funds set up across
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the world and in specific regions that pump money into everything from reforestation in honduras to repairing homes in bangladesh. the mission overlap creating confusion for donors, where to invest, and where to apply it. then there's the fact corruption and fraud plague climate financial. a larger, more robust agency could involve more stringent oversight of funds. but the biggest argument for world carbon bank is the scale of the climate crisis. current efforts of just too small. countries have pledged more than $10 billion to the u.n.'s green climate fund, which is the largest of its kind. only half of that money has actually been allocated to projects. in 2017 trump canceled $2 billion pledged by the u.s. saying such funds were, quote, raided from america's war on terrorism. with or without the u.s. pledge, the money available to funds
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like these pales in comparison to the need. any significant start toward an energy transition in poor countries could cost at least $1 trillion a year. these figures are daunting but advanced nations should not look away. after all 75 years ago this month, world leaders convened to sign world bank and imf. those decisions changed the world. if ever a cause needed such collaboration it's the climate crisis. up next, much of the world just got done celebrating pride month, but almost 70 nations still criminalize same sex relations. i will talk to the two lawyers who fought against such a law in india and won.
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a book that you're ready to share with the world? get published now, call for your free publisher kit today! section 377 of india's penal code made gay sex illegal and imposed a potential penalty of life imprisonment. my next guest chief lawyers
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arguing against that law in india's supreme court. weeks later it was struck down. india's chief justice said in his statement criminalizing cardinal intercourse is irrational, indefensible and manifestly arbitrary. section 377 had been on the books since 1861, a relic of india's british colonial era. several laws still exist in many countries. some former colonies are not. indeed, international lesbian, gay, by sexual, trans and intersexual relationship says almost 70 countries have laws that punish same sex relations. the lawyers, congratulations on your victory in india and welcome to the show. >> thank you. >> thank you for having us. >> to me what's even more striking is 2013, the same indian supreme court had up held the sod my laws. how did you get the same court to reverse itself? >> so i think 2013 was, as you
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can well imagine, extremely difficult. it's one thing to have an old colonial rule, sod my law, another to have it upheld by your court three times. in those hearings, it was a month long hearing, fareed. there was a point in the hearings when the senior judge looks at the law officer and says, well, do you know any homosexuals. the officers laughs, chuckles aloud, he said, no, my lord, i'm not that modern. for all of us, i think it was very clear at that point that we were going to lose. because the judge had no imagination of who was a gay indian. i think from there on we decided that we would never again let it be invisible in any courtroom, starting in that courtroom.
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so when we went back to court in 2016, we took real life indians, who are just like everyone else. >> and you chose the cases -- you chose the case and the lit kban -- lyth ganlts carefully, right? >> in 2015 and 2016 when we were putting the case together, lgtb people were not exactly falling all over themselves to say they were criminals with a supreme court that just upheld the law in 2013. so these were the people who agreed to come forward. it wasn't like we had a wide pool of people wanting to put their names to this. i think those first five petitioners, it was really an act of bravery and courage on their part because they agreed to do this on the back of a loss and on the back of a supreme court having said lgtbq people would be prosecuted. >> there was a classical dancer.
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>> the case is named for, the lead petitioner in the 2016 petition is a classical indian dancer. i mean, he is as quintessentially indian as you can be. a sickh indian, the most classic of all dancers. really kind of speaks so much to who is queer in india and what is being indian. >> the court recently ruled in favor effectively of the sod om laws you were able to get overturned. botswana went the indian way, in fact, cited your court decision. >> right. >> what do you think, do you have hope this movement is going to keep building? >> i do. i think the supreme court judgment plays a big part of that, because many of these
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former colonies have sodomy laws because of our history of british colonialism. i think after the supreme court judgment came, you've seen, you know, activists looking at how they can use this judgment to overturn their own laws. singapore there have been charges filed about a year ago now. there is definitely this movement. i think it makes a difference when you have a court in the global south that relies on its own jurisdiction, it's own jurisprudence and makes a difference in constitutional courts around the world that they are not just looking to courts from the west. you know, america, canada, the uk but also looking to india. >> i asked you about the human impact of this decision. but in a sense, it's personal because you guys didn't just argue the case together, you're also a couple your selves. >> sure. >> that's right.
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>> that's right. >> you know, the loss in 2013 was a loss of lawyers, it was a loss of citizens, it was a personal loss. it is not nice to be a criminal who has to go back to court as a lawyer to argue other cases. it is a deeply personal loss. i think for queer folks in all these countries, i think our governments have to have a sense these are not our laws. these were never our cultures, and why have we not been more proactive in bringing forth reform and expanding freedom. surely, surely independence and colonization must mean that. >> what did it mean to you personally? >> it was very difficult. we had a court where we practiced, where we were both lawyers at the supreme court. this court had just said that gay people were second class
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citizens. >> we really felt that, you know, this law had to be overturned. >> how did you celebrate when it actually happened? when >> you know, one of the things that meant the most to me is that my parents came to court the day the judgment was pronounced. so we met them the evening before, and my mom had been wanting to come to court for a long time, just to kind of see us in action, and then they were there. it really means a lot because it says in the judgment that history owes an apology to lgbt people and their families. i think one of the most meaningful things for me was that we were altogether after the judgment came out. >> well, congratulations. >> thank you so much. >> we will be right back. award winning interface.
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even on nights and weekends. today's xfinity service. simple. easy. awesome. i'd rather not. following the american women's soccer team's victory over the netherlands in the world cup last sunday, the stadium erupted in an unusual chant. >> equal pay, equal pay.
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>> days later crowds joined the team in chanting equal pay at the celebratory ticker tape parade on the streets of new york city. the crowds were expressing support for the members of the women's team who filed a lawsuit against the u.s. soccer federation citing gender discrimination. the suit alleges, among other things, that the federation discriminates by paying female players less than their male counterparts. it brings me to my question. according to the world economic forum's gender index, which of the following countries has achieved gender parity? iceland, norway, sweden, or none of the above? stay tuned and we'll tell you the answer. >> my book of the week is "leadership" by doris kearns goodwin. the 'em negligent historian has more insights about leadership drawn from studying four of the greats, abraham link up, the two roosevelts and lyndon johnson. she offers deep insights.
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the answer to my "gps" challenge this week is "d." according to the world economic forum's 2018 global gender gap index, no countries have achieved gender parity as they define it. the report measures gender equality across four pillars, economic opportunity, political empowerment, educational attainment and health and survival. the top seven countries in the rankings, iceland, norway, sweden, finland, nicaragua, rwanda and new zealand have closed at least 80% of their gender dpaps. overall the report notes with current trends it will take 202 years to achieve economic gender parity around the world. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. if you have moderate to severe psoriasis
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and you can cancel most bookings up to 24 hours in advance for a full refund. so you can make your next trip... monumental! read reviews check hotel prices book things to do tripadvisor happening now in the newsroom -- >> people come into our country illegally. we're taking them out legally. it's very simple. >> today, i.c.e. raids. the trump administration targeting thousands of undocumented migrants for deportation. plus -- >> i was on the sixth floor, we lost power. >> i looked out the window and i saw some black smoke coming out of a manhole cover. >> blackout. new york city plunged into darkness. people pouring into the streets as officials scramble to find a fix. and -- >> the situation here in baton rouge does seem to be deteriorating. >> barry dumping