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this nation. . >> he's a man who cozies up to the white supremacists. >> president trump plays down the latest north korean missile tests. >> the missile tests have all been short range. there's been no nuclear tests. >> sourced by the bepwefbest res now. welcome to "inside politics". i'm phil mattingly in for john king. why does this keep happening? that's the question americans have been asking themselves in the days after two mass shootings, one in texas, one in ohio, that killed 31 people. the texas massacre is the 7th worst shooting in modern american history. 22 killed inside a walmart store in el paso. according to police, the confessed killer says he specifically targeted mexicans. we'll talk about the race angle and how president trump has responded in a little bit. but first we start with the debate over guns and whether

this time will in fact, be different when it comes to new gun safety laws. president trump says it will be. and that he's ready to work with democrats on a bill strengthening background checks. >> we don't want insane people, mentally ill people, bad people, dangerous people -- we don't want guns in the hands of the wrong people. we have tremendous support for common sense, sensible, important background checks. there are many bills that have been put in over a period of four or five years. they went nowhere. but there's never been a president like president trump. . >> now, house democrats passed a background checks bill earlier this year. and they want mitch mcconnell to take it up right now. he is not going to do that. the question now is, how hard will president trump push? if he's looking to polls like this one it seems, at least on

its face, a political no-brainer. 89% for universal background checks, including the most trump-friendly demographics. but voices like this in conservative media. >> george h.w. bush said read my lips, no new taxes, raised taxes. any kind of a deal with the democrats on guns is going to risk the same fate happening to trump. the only thing a new law would do is drive a wedge between tuf trump and his voters, the nra. they want your guns. they want every gun you've got as quickly as they can get it. >> joining us now with the reporting and their insights. michael bender and thyme's molly ball. i want to start with history. we have all covered these issues for a long period of time. we have all seen this moment that feels like a tipping point and then ends up withering away

over the course of a couple weeks. if you take a look at the last 20 years, you see the clusters of the mass shootings, eight or more people killed. and you look at what happened during this period of time. you have in 2007, you have the virginia tech shooting where nothing occurred afterwards. small improvements in mental health data. 2012, sandy hook. nothing happened. background checks failed. a large failure for people looking for gun law changes. las vegas in 2017. massive shooting. more than 50 people killed. no significant changes. southern springs down in texas, small tweaks in the fix nics law. but nothing major. i guess the question that everyone wants to know, is this time different? >> i think there's a couple things missing from that timeline. first of all, that's a timeline of federal action. and there's a lot that has been

going on in the states during that time. also in some blue states. there has been a building grassroots movement in favor of gun control that we haven't seen. back in the 90s when republicans considered this politically toxic issue, that's really changed now because in the past when the nra was virtually unopposed as the source of voice in lawmakers's ears, now there is a really big movement on the other side. you have a really remarkable grassroots and well-funded bunch of organizations that are pushing. and you see the ground swell support gradually building to the point that background checks have always been broadly popular. but other gun control measures have also become more popular among the public, which i think you can attribute to a

combination of this drum beat of continued mass shootings and this political movement that has arisen. so the calculus for lawmakers is different now. and i think that -- we saw that in 2018, right? a lot of democrats in swing districts ran forcefully on a platform of gun control. so the politics are in flux. they're changing. that doesn't necessarily mean congress will act. it never does. but it does mean this is a different landscape for politicians than it has been in the past. . >> no question about it. in iowa, 16 democratic candidates hat a gun safety event. they are campaigning on it in 2020, a 180 from where they have been the past couple decades. democrats are clearly in this place right now. public opinion polling broadly seems to be in this place. when you look at pal lot initiatives, maine, nevada, background checks ended up failing. it didn't match up before the

public opinion polling. when you talk to republican aides on the hill, there is a lot of skepticism there, at least that is my take so far >> that's right. in the short-term, everything depends on how persistent president trump is. you're not going to get them to move, especially on the senate level unless there is clear and consistent guidance and they believe he is not going to swerve. he came out for red flag laws. backed off all of that. they have moved in a major way. the suburbs especially have moved. suburban moms, college educated voters are more in favor of gun control than we have seen in a long time. that is what is driving the democrats's shift in favor of gun control laws. president obama avoided it in in 2008 and 2012. democrats had a majority in 2007 and 2011. they didn't touch this. the rural areas still oppose gun

control. there is the mentalty that it will threaten their 2nd amendment rights. >> you had a great piece about suburbs. you should read the piece. it is indicative of where things are politically. this is on president trump. every republican i have talked to on capitol hill over the course of the last week says tell me where the president ends up and i will tell you if i can do something. take a listen to what the president said in february of 2018. >> we certainly have to strengthen background checks. everybody agrees with that. and we're going to make background checks very, very strong. >> mr. president it will have to be you. right now the gun lobby would stop in its tracks. . >> i like that responsibility, chris. i really do. i think it's time. i think it's time that a president stepped up. . >> that was not this past week. that was february of 2018. march, april, may they did fix nics. they didn't do anything related to background checks at all. why is it different now?

>> this is where i think the president's week in bedminster makes for real uncertainty here. he is going to have people furiously lobbying him during this week. typically it's momentum after the shootings that makes legislation happen. but i think this one-week break and for lawmakers in august, an august break, there is a chance of loss of momentum from this issue. and the president will be hearing from lots and lots of different people. he is somebody particularly susceptible to going off the last person he talked to. it will be interesting to see where congress lands when congress comes pack in session. the nra is in digs array right now. we know the "washington post", wayne la pierre was still on the phone with the president. but the president understanding that the nra doesn't have the power it used to have. and the president saying multiple times this week he

wanted to do something on guns. including remarks at a private meeting on friday. >> you make a fascinating point about the nra. the organization is unquestionably in a bad place in terms of how it is structured, people that have left. he put out a statement saying we're interested behind the scenes. when it comes to background checks, and red flag laws, the nra is not there. they say the organization has weakened but it is more than just the organization here tphrpl virginia. it is the membership. and the membership that supports very hartley president trump. what's your read right now on kind of the nra's role how they will play the next couple of weeks? . >> we have seen this play out before. you played the clips from -- after parkland. and trump's shift that time was nra. he had private meetings.

after that, pretty remarkable pretty open press event. he came out of that meeting with the nra with a different taupe. he has kept the tone so far. the tone has been where he seemed to want to be on stronger background checks so far. i talked to a few administration officials over the weekend. there does seem to be a real interest in getting something done. but right now the white house -- the president is leaving it up to mitch mcconnell and the senate republicans to put pen to paper on what the actual changes will look like. reading between the lines it doesn't sound like there will be anything transformational here. there's even talk about more interesting kind of what they can attach to it. does this grease the wheels for a deal or something along those

lines. >> one thing i have heard from republicans on the hill. again, you can't leave it up to republicans to write this. they need to know where the president is on this. tell me how universal background checks would have stepped dayton or el paso. one of the things we have heard from republicans these specific proposals wouldn't have addressed this specific shooting. that dynamic will have to shift or something will happen but won't be as broad. >> that is the slippery slope you play with. >> there are different background check proposals. up next, the post message of unity undercut by -- president trump. s drive safely... with drivewise. it lets you know when you go too fast...

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love. . >> those are the right words, i think everyone acknowledged. but ones he failed to follow himself. he featured political score settling and personal attacks. >> my critics are political people. they are trying to make point. in many cases they're running for president and they're very low in the polls. >> sherrod brown, he and the mayor, they're very dishonest people. he failed as a presidential candidate. . >> three months ago we read a speech. what was the name of the arena? beto had like 400 people. they said his crowd was wonderful. >> the president venting from air force one about news coverage, local officials in ohio and texas. behind the scenes, trump fumed about how it was covered saying the visits did not go as

planned. rolling that all out in a timeline fashion is important. its value. you understand the press isn't just doing this. >> yeah. >> he's doing it. why? >> it is just his personality here. the white house gets very frustrated with the portrayal of picking out slices of this trip and painting him as unable to connect with voters. this is how he connects with voters, right? and it is -- they feel this is all priced into the equation here. like you have -- when you have democrats attacking trump as a white supremacist, they feel like that -- that falls on deaf ears. but where there is concern is people who are embarrassed by trump and asking how they are dealing with that. a white house official told me over the weekend, what are you going to do? >> yeah.

the interesting thing is when you read local press, the people he met with said very nice things. said he was effective and did what he was supposed to do in those situations. instead of focusing on that, he is focusing on political attacks. the sharp democratic attacks about the issues of race and the issue now seems to be a litmus test on white supremacy. take a listen. >> is the president a white supremacist? >> he is. he's also made that very clear. >> he is giving people license to not only hate but to foment that hateful violence. >> his clear language and in code, this president has fanned the flames of white supremacy in this nation. >> he's a man who cozies up to the white supremacists. this is what he's done. the wink and a nod. >> this is a different president. this is a different time.

but those are explosive, explosive allegations if you will. >> they really are. they are allegations not just at the president but anybody who wrote it for him. this president we all know he simply can't let a criticism or attack go unanswered. so that's why we saw the tweets from him. the media it is just who he is and everybody who is in the white house. you have the president comfortable supporters but also answering his critics. >> you make an interesting point. there is a balance. do you go all in on the white supremacist angle. one of the most discussed issues in politics is bound to upset black voters, arguably the most influential demographic in the democratic party. i have heard that, how do we

thread this needle here going into 2020? is that kind of your assessment of things too? >> yeah. auto its a complex issue for democrats. not clear how this plays, of his because there is a base for them to mobilize. there is also a base for president trump when they hear this stuff, i think they get fired up about it. they are motivated by a poll believes the president is racist and has not done enough to distance himself from white supremacists and white nationalists are saying the president is furthering their cause. they like things about his rhetoric. democrats look at that, they look how their voters are responding. they feel the need to channel the sentiments. >> you made a key point. no one is sure how this will play. . >> i think it's risky for democrats. it's one thing to say that the president hasn't appropriately condemned or stkapbd himself from white supremacists. it's another to call him a white supremacist, which is an attack

on any ofsdz supporters which they need to win over in they are going to win in 2020. the iowa state fair. 2020 presidential candidates ready to dive into that local cuisine. . >> i saw the butter cow from a far. but i have not actually tried the fried butter. i have been fasting all day to have it guilt-free. >> i have a whole rift about health food. i don't know if this is the place to give that speech. >> i want to be the first presidential candidate to have one bite from every single food vend vendor. there is peanut butter and jelly on a stick. >> this is a little slice of heaven. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated.

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that's what i call iowa nice. >> and i love that iowa nice. >> i have learned about iowa nice. >> thanks for your iowa nice. >> iowa nice. get it? 2020 democrats working overtime to flatter those crucial iowa voters this weekend. after all, iowans have a reputation not only for being iowa nice but to pick the nominee. these are the winners of the iowa caucus us over the course of the last eight election cycles. here's who actually ended up becoming the nominee. six of the eight. and asterisk because tom harkin was uncontested primary. iowa picks winners in the iowa primary.

skwrolg tkhrau one thing that is interesting, one of the lowest attendees, joe biden. i expect that will change over the course of the next couple of weeks. let's take a look at where all the polling is right now. joe biden, 28%. up one point in the past couple of months. elizabeth warren up 12 points to 19%. we will talk more about this. there is a reason. you saw it over the course of this weekend. now let's take a look at first and second choice. this is important when you talk about the iowa caucuses. 40%, biden. warren, 38 periods of time. harris strong as well. joe biden clearly the front-runner in iowa as he is with national polls. keep a close eye on elizabeth warren. she's moving. people are paying attention and the numbers are starting to show.

. >> i'm at the iowa state fair! woo! >> only been in this race for about 10 weeks. eighth trip to iowa. >> this is a great place to remind the country and each other that there is no such thing as a permanently red state or county. >> you take this responsibility very seriously. i love you for you. you're a bit spoiled. you are used to presidential candidates showing up in, you know, like your living room essentially. >> iowa state fair. we will do mutt ton busting. don't worry. we have a helmet. we want to keep you safe. what is your read on the state of iowa? . >> someone needs to tell them what iowa nice is. midwest nice isn't really nice.

it means you are burying your feelings and acting nice openly. the voters are nice to your face. i think as you said, there is clearly a feeling that elizabeth warren is on the move. her campaign has always put heavy emphasis on iowa. they believe that she has this sort of prairie populism that can appeal to not only the liberal activists who are strong but also to more rural voters, farmers, working people who might respond to her economic appeal. there is a tortoise and the hare thing. she has been slow and steady. she has been building credibility in voters's minds less about one big moment than people turning to her plans, substantive.

but biden is still in very strong position. the other candidates are trying to figure out what is going to dislodge him. and they haven't figured it out yet. a lot of it is voters being interested in this very large pool of candidates and trying to narrow it down starting to gravitate toward the same group of first-year candidates. but i think there will be a lot that will happen between now and the iowa caucus and it's very much in flux. >> elizabeth warren's field operation is for real. people shouldn't sleep on that. that is showing right now. joe biden, what could bring joe biden down in iowa or nationally? we talked about these slips he has. yesterday he talked about he was vice president when parkland kids were in the shooting. he was not vice president. and this comment he made. take a listen. >> we had this notion somehow if you're poor you cannot do it. poor kids are just as talented

and just as bright as white kid kids. they can do anything anybody else can do given a shot. >> his campaign said immediately after he misspoke. he immediately corrected himself. he did. it's one of those things you see it and you see it repeatedly on the stump. is this just baked in is the question at this point or is this going to be a problem? >> like with trump, being unable to ignore criticism, biden has had a bunch of these senior moments. you have to assume this is who he is as a candidate. just like the president is who he is. he's not going to let shots go unanswered. it does not seem to be affected biden. they seem to be pretty well

established. candidates seem to be sort of -- or vote, excuse me, seem to be fairly comfortable with this joe biden. >> and this joe biden continues to show he beats president trump by a large margin or sizable margin. kamala harris's campaign launched their first ad. take a look at this. >> after we were fed and in bed, our mother would sit up trying to figure out how to make it all work. that's what i'm fighting for. real relief for families like yours. not in 20 years, not in 30. starting my first day as president. because you've waited long enough to get a good night's sleep. >> crowds paying close attention. she was buying pork chops on a stick six at a time. that is big in iowa. >> there is the personal story

she suggested she would want to talk about after that first debate moment. the little girl was me. desegregation and bussing. she's been up and down in the polls. she is kind of back to where she was before. she has not naturally been doing this on the stump. it does not come naturally to her to talk about herself. but she's trying. people want to know where you're coming from, why you are supporting these things and whether there is conviction behind them to go. >> you're a veteran of campaigns. when does it become real in iowa? are we there yet? >> it has been elizabeth warren, kamala harris, the position on how to take over the lead from biden. they haven't done that. trump was at the top of the polls in 2016 and all the

conversation was who was going to eventually take over from him. who was best positioned to take over the lead? at some point the lead stuck and became the nomination. i think you hit the nail on the head earlier. biden being able to beat trump. my colleague did a story over the weekend about trump's soft polling with seniors, a crucial electorate, slice of the electorate with republicans. one of the best quotes in the story was with a truck driver from indiana who said right now i'm a biden man. according to all the polls he can beat trump. as long as biden can hold onto that, this may be the one we see the next few months. >> and if he doesn't, watch out. a lot of people are waiting. the risk of watching the next debate from home, not the stage.

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now sunday trail mix for a taste of the 2020 campaign. the third democratic debate is just a month away. and half of the field could be watching from home. candidates must hit 2% in four early state or national polls and have 130,000 individual donors. the ones who haven't met that criteria spent the waoeblgd practically begging for a tiny bit of support. >> it's a pleasure to speed date with you here today. if you want a second date you can go to timryanforamerica.com if you know anyone who has a dollar after eating all the candidates are here, please send it. >> i've been to all 99 of your counties. come on, all 99 counties. >> name the powerful forces --

no. we all expect the field to whittle down once on stage. how many end up there? >> so far there are nine that are qualified for the next debate. i think this is do or die time. you're not on the minds of people and not going to be able to make your case when it matters. you fall away. voters already have. the field is in a clear top four in every poll nationally. there is a fifth hanging around. everyone else 2% or less. candidates need to go after potential supporters. hickenlooper went after bernie sanders and elizabeth warren. joe biden is questioning the middle-of-the-road democrats. . >> how long do people stay in, how long do they have the money to stay in. will one dollar at a time actually be able to finance a campaign. there is this strategy from

senator michael bennet. i promise you won't have to think about me for two weeks of a time. i'll do my job watching out for north korea and ending this trade war. so you can go raise your kids and live your lives. isn't everybody tired of the last two and a half years? i think there are some that might be appealing to. >> some might be reporters. president trump takes the side of kim jong-un over his own military commanders. donald trump failed as a businessman.

he borrowed billions and left a trail of bankruptcy and broken promises. he hasn't changed. i started a tiny investment business, and over 27 years, grew it successfully to 36 billion dollars. i'm tom steyer and i approve this message. i'm running for president because unlike other candidates, i can go head to head with donald trump on the economy, and expose him fo what he is: a fraud and a failure. the first person to survive alzis out there.ase and the alzheimer's association is going to make it happen by funding scientific breakthroughs, advancing public policy, and providing local support to those living with the disease and their caregivers.

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president trump appears to be siding with kim jong-un over his own military and some of america's closest allies. on saturday, north korea launched short-range missiles for the fifth time in the last three weeks. the regime said it's a brand-new type of weapon. the state news agency released these pictures of a smiling kim

jong-un looking on. trump said it isn't a big deal because they aren't long range missiles and aren't nuclear. earlier this week he said he received a beautiful letter from kim. u.s. commanders and a lot of lawmakers call essential to regional security. >> he wasn't happy with the test, the -- the war games, the war games on the other side with the united states. and as you know, i have never liked it either. i've never been a fan. you know why? i don't like paying for it. we should be reimbursed for it. i told that to south korea. i don't like it either >> in a follow-up pair of tweets about kim's letter, he referred to the ridiculous and 13e7bsive exercises and said i look forward to seeing kim jong-un in the not too distant future. while they may not be nuclear or long range, they are all

violations. walk me through where the president is on north korea, period. >> so these are ballistic missile tests. as you said, in violation of u.n. resolutions. the president essentially says i don't care. because they're not a threat to american national security. this is a president who doesn't see alliances as part of american power or as part of i think what's important, a part of something important to the preservation of american national security. so he is saying he doesn't care they are a threat to japanese national security or south korean national security. traditionally, some of our most important allies. so this has caused a lot of trepidation in japan and south korea. what the president wants is further negotiation with kim jong-un and so he's -- he wants to set aside the violation of these u.n. resolutions getting back to the table with kim for a third summit. >> he's consistent. he has been like this for a long

period of time. he used them as a carrot stick. bender, is the top ranks of the intelligence community kind of departed or is in the process of departing with all of this going on. sue gordon resigned. you may not know her name. at least on capitol hill, very well known and very well respected. in her note to the president saying she was going to resign, mr. president, i offer this as an act of respect and patriotism. you should have your team. in other words, she was forced out. where is the dni in terms of structure? >> we have a ways to go before we have a new -- we have a replacement at dni. it will be closely watched for a while and for a number of reasons, including what we were seeing in north korea and how things are unfolding in north korea. the same goes with intel for the

last few years here. but he also comes at it from -- that these sort of institutions haven't gone the job done before him. and so it is his new way of thinking here, his different approach. >> it's where he's been. it's where he is going to continue to be. our reporters share from their notebooks next, including whether anybody wants to be trump's next ambassador to russia. with three kinds of wild-caught crab to the return of crab lover's dream! grab your crab crew, hurry in or order it to go! at vand look great. guarantee you'll see great "guarantee". we uh... we say that too. you gotta use "these" because we don't mean it. buy any pair at regular price, get one free. really. visionworks. see the difference.

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. time now for reporters to share a page from the notebook to get you out in front of the news this week. anna, i'll start with you. >> i'm watching who will replace jon huntsman as u.s. ambassador

to russia. the position has a pretty storied history with notable dignitaries serving in that post going back to john kenyan and avr avril harriman and it is a lessen joyable and perhaps elite position in the trump administration because of the questions that have dogged this president about his relationship with vladimir putin. and any progress that is made in the relationship, i think, is cast with questions about the president's relationship with putin. so it will be interesting to see, i think, who replaces huntsman. there is talk about steven begin who is now the leading -- the leading the negotiations with north korea replacing huntsman which says something about how the talks with north korea are going and perhaps that is even less enjoyable than serving as the chief emissary to russia. >> low bar. quite a balancing act.

sal. >> senator lindsey graham kicked up a storm in the week when he said republicans would take another stab at repealing obamacare if they win full control in 2020 and i want to throw water on this and i spoke to several senior republican aides who said it is unlikely to happen and one texted me back a laughing face emotion and other one said it is just lindsey being lindsey. they don't want this to be the conversation and they want to focus on medicare for all and they believe that is a good condition and they don't want a repeat of the a.p.a. >> and the emoji response. always enjoyable. >> beware of the eyes of bedminster. i was in a summer retreat but that hardly means a break from the headlines. he threatened kim jong-un and attacked lebron james and called for a boycott of

harley-davidson. trump poll numbers tends to pick up when he can stay out of the news. so i'm watching this week is if the president could get a little bit of r&r and continue a summer of unforced errors from a controversial performance this week, this past week in el paso and dayton and the racist tweets he posted while we were sitting at this very table a few weeks ago. >> steal yourselves for tweets. molly? >> impeachment. is it happening or not? there have been some mixed signals being sent by the democrats in the house recently. as you've had jerry nadler and others saying that, in fact, impeachment is already underway even though the house where a majority of democrats now do support opening an impeachment inquiry never had what is usually considered the opening of an impeachment inquiry, the full vote on the house floor about whether to go in that direction. so democrats are -- members of congress are back in districts for the summer recess and some are kind of confused about what

going on with the leadership saying nothing has changed, nothing to see here. is this a clever strategy, trying to have it both ways by mullfying the pro-impeachment base and at the same time not setting off the president or his allies with a big announcement. so meanwhile, chairman nadler set out a very ambitious timeline expecting to get court decisions on this litigation for the investigations, get more witnesses before the committees in the fall and potentially have a vote on impeachment by the end of the year. some skepticism about that. and more than anything, confusion. so i think when the congress returns after labor day, you can expect some questions about what is actually going on here. >> no question about it. impeachment in the eye of the beholder apparently. i'll close with this. about a decade ago i got in the habit of asking lawmakers and aides what they would be watching during the august recess. this time around i've been struck by kind of the acute and growing uneasiness with the state of global affairs, among

the issues raised in the past few weeks, china on two fronts, trade and the posture toward unrest in hong kong. iran, which is discussing north korea and south korea and japan with their own historic tensions now with frozen diplomatic relations. pakistan and india where the indian governments move to wipe out the autonomy of the rest of the kashmir region has put them on edge. afghanistan, peace talks continue but so do taliban attacks. isis, the group has solidified insurgent capability in iraq and researching in syria. and mentioned turkey, yemen, venezuela and brexit and one summoned it up, there is just a hell of a lot going on right now that could become a much bigger problem. let that be a good reminder, august is rarely sedentary as the empty halls of the capitol would make you believe. that is it for "inside politics." catch us week days at noon

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"it's the easiest, because it's the cheesiest" kraft. for the win win. nation in crisis. after two mass shootings, democrats blame president trump for a rising tide of hate. >> he didn't pull the trigger. but he certainly been tweeting out the ammunition. >> the president said he wants to prevent gun violence. >> i think we could get something really good done. >> but will this time be any different? i'm speak with democratic candidate beto o'rourke next. plus massive raids. children separated from parents as hundreds of undocumented immigrants are swept up by i.c.e. and the president calls it a good deterrent. >> they may get in but it doesn't matter because they're going out. >>