before you send your teen to college... make sure you help protect them. talk to your teen's doctor... about meningitis b vaccination. . recession worries roil the markets. >> whiplash on wall street. >> wipeout day. >> and israel blocks a visit by two democratic congresswomen after a public nudge by the president. >> they are very anti-jewish and very anti-israel. i think it's disgraceful. >> one struggling 2020 democrat bows out. another fights on after a mass shooting back home. >> we must take the fight directly to the source of this problem, and that is donald trump. >> "inside politics," the

biggest stories sourced by the best reporters now. ♪ welcome to "inside politics." i'm john king. to our viewers in the united states and around the world, thank you for sharing your sunday. we begin with the question that rattled f ed fi ed financial ma the president of the united states this week, is the american economy suddenly at risk of stalling, even tipping into recession? there is no guarantee of that. but there are plenty of warning signs. let's look. this past week, if you had not heard it before, you may have heard the term inverted yield curve. that means it costs more to borrow long-term than short. that's backwards. when that happens, you see it happening here in the past week and in 2007, you go back through history, when it happens, recessions normally around the corner. that's why many people in the markets and many exisconomists it's possible that the economy is headed towards recession.

because of that, we had a roller coaster week on wall street. down because of trade concerns. up a bit after those appeared to be a a e-mail yated a bit. the president watches closely on this. some of this is beyond the control of any american president. the german and uk economies contracted in quarter two. a warning sign they could be headed into recession. there's the possibility of a no-deal brexit. that has the world worried. chinese industrial production at a 17-year low. the world's second largest economy slowing down in part because of the trade war. at momenhome, consumer spending up. consumer spending is a huge piece of the economy. the trump administration says this is proof there's not a recession threat ahead. business investment dropped in

the second quarter. the university of michigan's barometer of consumer sentiment dropped this suggests if consumers are getting nervous and this turns around that could be a troubled sign. home values plummet, voters get cranky. the last time we had a one-term president, george h.w. bush could not convince voters that a mild recession was over. and it was. how worried is the current president? he blinked and hit the pause button on his escalating trade war with china. that was on tuesday, even before that inverted yield curve of potential trouble ahead. >> we're doing this for christmas season, just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on u.s. customers, but so far there's been none. just in case they might have an impacted on people, we've delayed it so that they won't be

relevant to the christmas shopping season. >> with us this sunday to share the reporting and the insights, julie pace of the associated press, neil irrwin of the "new york times." when you look at the data, what do you look at after being through a tumultuous week what are you looking for in the days and weeks ahead that says okay, they managed to land this plane, sort of recession, maybe a bit of a global slowdown, or the snowball is starting to go down the hill. this is the moment in a horror movie where a lot of ominous things are happening, but nothing bad has happened to the characters. the u.s. economy is growing well. the job market is pretty solid. the question is what are these leading indicators going to show? there's surveys of mavering companies, supply chain managers, weekly claims on unemployment, jobless claims. as we see those things over the next few weeks, months, we'll see if this trouble with the trade war and china, whether that will slow the u.s. economy or whether we can be an island

in the storm. >> the president, a lot to of fingers pointed at the president saying a lot of this volatility is caused by the trade war. you decided to pick this fight with china. you said it would be over soon. now there's no end in sight. that's a lot of the turmoil. certainly part of the reason china's economy is slowing down. the president says i'm not to blame. it's the fed. interest rates are historically low. can the fed do anything here to make this better if that's the right word? >> it's an interesting question. as you noted, interest rates are already historically low. they only have so much room to work with. what we have seen is the fed has really sort of been the work that the economy has trrested o. earlier this summer the fed says they would no longer raise rates, this set stocks soaring, then they said they would cut rates. that sent the stocks soaring. so they have stoked uncertainty

in the economy. >> it's a temporary thing, if you will, in the sense that yes, the fed has done that, but germany's economy is still in trouble. the uk economy is still in trouble. china's trouble is still slowing down. this is all happening in the context as we head into a presidential re-election year. again, the last one-term president we had had to deal with this. it was a mild recess baion back then. the white house says talk of recession is poppycock. >> our economy is soaring. it's the best it's been. the rest of the globe is stag nan stagnant or declining. china is a declining economy. our economy is strong, their economy is week. the time to do something is now. it would behoove the democrats and the mainstream media to push a false narrative that we're headed towards a recession, but we're not. >> i think means me and us.

we are not saying we're heading into a vegrecession. we are saying there are statistics that show the possibility. >> we're in this situation where now you have to line the white house rhetoric up with data, hard cold facts. we know that can always be a little problematic for this white house. the other thing to one of the points hogan makes there, there's a lot of talk about the us versus them economy. the strength of the u.s. economy versus other countries. it's a global economy. u.s. economy is so intermingled with the chinese economy, with the european economy. so if there is weakness abroad, there becomes real concern here because of all of those intermingling forces. the point that horgan is magan is that this should give the u.s. more leverage with china. chinese experts and experts say china plays a very long game, much longer than the next year and a half.

they're less likely to be moved by some of his short-term maneuvers. >> they don't have to worry about an election or voters. so the question is what can be done, and how much of it is in control whether it's of the president of the united states, can't get anything legislatively passed, whether the fed can help, what levers lie here and how much of this is out of the united states control. neil you write today how would a 2020 vegs happen? the trade wars and a breakdown in international economic diplomacy would cause businesses to pull back. chances of a near-term recession are only about one in three in the view of most forecasters but if that does develop, the big question is whether the usual tools to fight it are up to the task. a lot of this is so complicated, any one specific action whether by president trump or the fed might not be enough. >> i would add it's not just

about going into recession or not going into recession. late 2015, early 2016, there was a contraction in the industrial sector that had some echoes of what's happening now. it was driven by forces overseas what was going on in the chinese economy. and that probably contributed to trump's victory. on the coast the economy wasn't bad, in the industrial heartland it was in a bad spot. there's ways this could turn into something painful for americans, does impact the election in 2020 that doesn't fall into the recession category. if it does, that's a different matter. >> there's a stretch, but i get it to a degree. you've seen past administrations do this because the american consumer is such a giant piece of the machine here. so you can't to keep consumers confide confident. you need to keep them spending. if they stop spending, you're in trouble. >> that '15 and '16 incident is

a perfect example. it was an industrial pullback that didn't lead us into recession because of consumer spending so it's possible we could avert a deeper downturn. up next, israel blocks a planned visit by two democratic congress women at the request of president trump. first poll signa first politicians say and do the darnedest things. donald trump failed as a businessman.

he borrowed billions and left a trail of bankruptcy and broken promises. he hasn't changed. i started a tiny investment business, and over 27 years, grew it successfully to 36 billion dollars. i'm tom steyer and i approve this message. i'm running for president because unlike other candidates, i can go head to head with donald trump on the economy, and expose him fo what he is: a fraud and a failure. ♪ (music plays throughout♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

but allstate actually helps you drive safely... with drivewise. it lets you know when you go too fast... ...and brake too hard. with feedback to help you drive safer. giving you the power to actually lower your cost. unfortunately, it can't do anything about that. now that you know the truth... are you in good hands? tell him we're flexible. don't worry. my dutch is ok. just ok? (in dutch) tell him we need this merger. (in dutch) it's happening..! just ok is not ok. especially when it comes to your network. at&t is america's best wireless network and now, get the option of spotify premium on us, with your unlimited plan.

more for your thing. that's our thing. we're oscar mayer deli fresh your very first sandwich,m... your mammoth masterpiece. and...whatever this was. because we make our meat with the good of the deli and no artificial preservatives. make every sandwich count with oscar mayer deli fresh. my bladder leak underwear.orried someone might see so, i switched. to always discreet boutique. its shape-hugging threads smooth out the back. so it fits better than depend. and no one notices. always discreet. 'cause crabfest is on geat red lobster.ns with nine craveable crab creations. like our new crab imperial. now just $15.99. or crack into a pound of wild-caught snow crab. now only $19.99.

grab your crab crew. crabfest ends september 1st. president trump got a campaign assist from a foreign government this week, and it wasn't russia. at president's urging israel denied visas to two liberal democratic congresswomen. rashida tlaib then asked for permission to visit her palestinian grandmother. after israel said yes to that, tlaib said never mind. deciding she should not accept restrictions even though she agr agreed to accept the restrictions when making the follow-up visa request. >> this letter was used to try to prevent of my freedom of speech and they were demands of me to basically silence me. >> this is a complicated story. it is remarkable for an american president to push another government to deny a visit by members of congress. it's also remarkable that prime

minister benjamin netanyahu weeks from elections back home would do president trump's bidding and infuriate democrats by openly taking sides in an american political fight. it's important to note to lelaid omar wanted to go separately as guests of a palestinian group whose history includes anti-semitism and praise of bombs. joini so you have these congress women who want to make a point. they're making it. the president is giving them attention. the president wants to elevate them. they gave him the foil. benjamin netanyahu raised a lot of questions about his relationship with democrats who happen to control the house of representatives who are heading into a presidential year where we don't know what will happen. is this just the president and these two members of the

so-called squad staking out their critical 34ri political p there something bigger here? >> this is a major shift in the u.s./israel relationship. for decades there's been support from both sides of the aisle for israel to continue to give money that way, security funds. things like that. now you see that being questioned, particularly on the democratic side of the aisle. in part that's because this close relationship between netanyahu and trump. that relationship does seem to be turning this relationship into more of a part san onisan . that is making people nervous, they could see a drop of support. they fear if there becomes more partisan, you won't have the same kind of backing. >> among those making that argue m argument is the house speaker nancy pelosi. she said this in an interview. we have a deep relationship and long standing relationship with

israel that can withstand donald trump and netanyahu. we cannot let their weaknesses stand in the way of our ongoing relationship. trying to calm everybody down saying we'll get through this. >> we've seen this relationship deteriorate in terms of the bipartisan nature of it for several years. it started under president obama where the relationship between obama and netanyahu was so tense. there is no pretense anymore. it's because of political interests. netanyahu is in a really difficult political spot. he sees if you're in israel he see billboards with donald trump's face on it. he's trying to send a message not that we just got the u.s. support but we have donald trump's support specifically. so, you know, you are seeing some democrats say i don't know if this relationship will be as bipartisan as it has been in the past if trump is still president. it's important to note, these democratic congresswomen, they had the opportunity to join

pelosi and other lawmakers on these coddles, they are also using this to try to push it towards their political movement. >> absolutely. democrats who are somewhat skeptical and critical of things they have said and done in the past are now rallying to their side. congressman omar saying trump's muslim ban is what itsrael is implementing. the irony is the only democracy in the middle east making such a decision is an insult to democratic values and a chilling response to a visit by government officials. so to her point, it's not like they're shying away from the fight. they like this fight. >> think of what has built up to this. there's been a lot of controversial statements they have made. it's caused a lot of rifts when the house democratic caucus. steny hower h ee how hoyer was

behind the scenes to say their views are not the views of house democrats. now with the action president trump had done, it forced a lot of these house democrats who were uncomfortable with the language and their policy views, that congressman omar and tlaib had taken, to rally behind them. you can get people behind the idea that you shouldn't block lawmakers from entering a country for promoting free speech, but it puts hawkish democrats to have to rally behind their colleagues. >> which is why those democrats are mad at netanyahu here. he almost forced their hand. >> john, you said this, the president used a foreign government to exact political punishment on his opponents which is what he did with omar and tlaib. it has put democrats in a unified position. it also unified aipac on their

side, an interesting thing. now democrats are considering what options they can use. we have been hearing they may reprimand the israeli ambassador to the u.s. as well as the u.s. ambassador to israel to figure out what their roles could have been in this. the democrats feel as though the trust is gone between the israeli ambassador dermer with him because they had been working with him to try to find an agreement so that way tlaib and omar could enter israel. now they feel as though the trust there is gone. >> but this is like both these leaders, netanyahu and trump, they have their own domestic political concerns. netanyahu is also up. he has this hard line faction of his government that wants to see sort of that government moving to the right. here at home, president trump has to rally his own base for his own re-election. this is not even about the jewish vote. jews are 2% of america, this is about evangelicals who make up a

significant portion of donald trump's base. this is a rift in this relationship that will not just go away. as you're pointing out this will continue and continue. but it's one both leaders think serves their own personal reelection purposes. >> we'll watch it play out and see if there's a long-term toll. when it comes to the economy, president trump wants all of the credit and none of the blame. at t-mobile, for $40/line for four lines, it's all included for the whole family, starting with unlimited data.

use as much as you want, when you want. and if you like netflix, it's included on us. plus no surprises on your bill. taxes and fees are included. and now for a limited time, with each new line, get one of our latest smartphones included. that's right, only $40/line for four lines and smartphones are included for the whole family. when you start with a better that's no way to treat a dog... ...you can do no wrong. where did you learn that? the internet... yeah? mmm! with no artificial preservatives or added nitrates or nitrites, it's all for the love of hot dogs.

you don't need to go anywhere dad, this is your home. the best home to be in is your own. home instead offers personalized in-home services for your loved ones. home instead senior care. to us, it's personal. home instead senior care. mno kidding.rd. but moving your internet and tv? that's easy. easy?! easy? easy. because now xfinity lets you transfer your service online in just about a minute with a few simple steps. really? really. that was easy. yup. plus, with two-hour appointment windows, it's all on your schedule. awesome. now all you have to do is move...that thing. [ sigh ]

introducing an easier way to move with xfinity. it's just another way we're working to make your life simple, easy, awesome. go to xfinity.com/moving to get started. a recession or even a significant slowdown would test the president's economic message in 2020. the one he uses now is already full of fuzzy math and memories.

to hear him on the rally stage, he changed everything. >> before the election our factories were closing. who knows it better than you? you're like central casting for the closing of factories. our jobs were vanishing. >> now, that last part is not true. compare the first 30 months of the trump presidency to the final 30 months of the obama presidency. the obama economy created nearly 1 million more jobs. the president has an explanation for that. he says his count should start earlier. >> you got to go by november 9th. you know, the markets have gone through the roof since november 9th. that's the day after i won the election. so i won the election, the markets went up thousands of points, things started happening. >> okay. to be kind, let's test that. let's accept the president's start date. his case still doesn't add up. this adds the final three months

of the obama presidency to president trump's jobs total, making it the last 33 months. then we look at the 33 months before those. the obama economy in terms of job creation wins again. the president, though, doesn't like to share credit for the boom. >> i know you like me, this room is a love fest. i know that. you have no choice but to vote for me because your 401(k)s down the tubes, everything will be down the tubes. so, whether you love me or hate me, you have to vote for me. >> it's an interesting campaign message there. now, in the president's defense, there have been increases in coal jobs, which he promised. modest increases. increases in steel jobs. he promised help there. wages have finally started to go up. the president has a good story to tell, but the way he tells it is not contextual. >> no. >> you're laughing. too much to expect, huh?

>> he inherited an economy on the rise. president obama inherited a recession and slowly over eight years turned that around. by the time trump took office, the economy was on much more solid footing. there have been increases since then. the point he's making, i think, is kind of his only choice here. he's not talking to the people in that room in manchester when he's making that argument. he's talking to moderate republicans, independents who maybe were turned off by some of his rhetoric or the more aggressive policies that he has pushed. but they're happy with the economy. he knows his best chance of winning re-election is for the economy to stay strong. that's an open question now. for those voters to prize that. >> he doesn't want to share the credit with president obama, that would be heresy to him. the economy was growing. there have been other gains under trump. the question now becomes blame. if there's a slowdown. if there's -- god forbid nobody wants a recession, if there's a

slowdown or a recession, he says it is the fed fault, not the trade war fault. i want to show you a graphic from the farm bureau, the farmers are a key part of the president's base. just talking about how the trade war is impacting more than soybeans. china purchased 1.3 billion less in farm products. you've talked to farmers in the midwest, many of them voted for the president, many of them still want to vote for the president again but this is exhausting them. >> words and twitters and tweets, that doesn't pay the farmers bills. that dents soloesn't solve the we're dealing with. what do you tell your children that want to farm? do you tell them go find something else to do? one of our sons already has. he has -- sorry. because you don't know what future will bring. you almost want to encourage them to go do something else. >> the human part there is the

issue for the president in the sense that farmers, they need a two-year plan, a four-year plan, a five-year plan, and a ten-year pla plant -- plan. in this uncertainty of the china trade war, they don't know what to do. >> that's the concern we've heard from republican senators that come from these ag states every time the president tries to ramp up his trade war with china or elsewhere in the country. i talked to the iowa senators multiple times who have talked to the president both privately on the phone and also publicly to try to tell him this is really hurting farmers in iowa. this is a state you need for your re-election. farmers here love you, but their patience is wearing thin. now it remains to be seen at what point does our patience run out. these are trump voters. they do want to support the president, but there's going to be a point for them. obviously ratified the u.s. mexico canada trade deal would help.

but the future of that trade deal is uncertain. >> very iffy. business groups trying to push democrats to give the president something heading into the election. the white house says this is all fabricated, this talk of the recession. the president picked up the phone this week to get on a conference call with the leaders of citi bank, jpmorgan. he gets it. he was told on that call, it's his trade war that is a big fact ner a factor in this happening. . the latest fox news poll shows him trailing all of the leading democrats. it's august. it's august 2019. but a president under 40%, an incumbent president under 40% at a time there is a strong economy, that's a big warning sign to this president. the economy is essentially his calling card. if he loses that, what? >> the economy is the one thing his advisers for so long were hoping he would talk about. just talk about the economy. stick to the economy.

when you're at these rallies, only talk about that. talk about how well it's doing. now there's the potential for that to not be an option for him. he's trying to place blame and find a fall guy either with the fed. also this week he was blaming the media saying we were trying to stoke a recession by putting out these warning signs, scare consumers. so this definitely will have a potentially big impact on his re-election if things come to pass. as soon as next year we could see the beginning of the recession. >> i agree. i think it will. i wonder whether it will have the kind of impact we traditionally think. the traditional wisdom is a bad economy is super, super bad for re-election or the election of whoever looks like the incumbent. we're in this area of fierce polarization. we have never had an election environment mtd quiquite like t. we never had an election with a candidate on top of the ticket

who plays politics quite the same way president trump does. i wonder if it will have quite as big an impact as we all sort of expect. i guess we may find out, right? >> it's a great point. we talked about it, whatever the issue, the old rules say this. >> right. >> the question is do the old rules apply in the trump age. i remember 1992, we were out of recession. george h.w. bush were trying to tell people it was over. their legs were tired and he lost his job. looking at the guns including a tough town hall. woman 1: i had no symptoms of hepatitis c.

man 1: mine... man 1: ...caused liver damage. vo: epclusa treats all main types of chronic hep c. vo: whatever your type, ask your doctor if epclusa is your kind of cure. woman 2: i had the common type. man 2: mine was rare. vo: epclusa has a 98% overall cure rate. man 3: i just found out about my hepatitis c. woman 3: i knew for years. vo: epclusa is only one pill, once a day, taken with or without food for 12 weeks. vo: before starting epclusa, your doctor will test if you have had hepatitis b, which may flare up, and could cause serious liver problems during and after treatment. vo: tell your doctor if you have had hepatitis b, other liver or kidney problems, hiv, or other medical conditions... vo: ...and all medicines you take, including herbal supplements. vo: taking amiodarone with epclusa may cause a serious slowing of your heart rate. vo: common side effects include headache and tiredness. vo: ask your doctor today, if epclusa is your kind of cure.

but we're also a cancer fighting, hiv controlling, joint replacing, and depression relieving company. from the day you're born we never stop taking care of you. from the day you're born you need a hair smoother.? get fructis sleek & shine with moroccan argan oil hair is super sleek, even in 97% humidity. no parabens. fructis sleek & shine by garnier, naturally!

managingaudrey's on it.s? eating right and staying active? on it! audrey thinks she's doing all she can to manage her type 2 diabetes and heart disease, but is her treatment doing enough to lower her heart risk? maybe not. jardiance can reduce the risk of cardiovascular death for adults who also have known heart disease. so it could help save your life from a heart attack or stroke. and it lowers a1c. jardiance can cause serious side effects including dehydration, genital yeast or urinary tract infections, and sudden kidney problems. ketoacidosis is a serious side effect that may be fatal. a rare, but life-threatening bacterial infection... ...in the skin of the perineum could occur. stop taking jardiance and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of this bacterial infection,... ...ketoacidosis, or an allergic reaction. do not take jardiance if you are on dialysis or have severe kidney problems. taking jardiance with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. lower a1c and lower risk of a fatal heart attack? on it with jardiance. ask your doctor about jardiance.

let's turn to some sunday trail mix. house democrats looking to push republicans on new gun measures. on the agenda, several gun measures including limits on high capacity magazines and grants to states that try to limit gun access to those with mental health issues. democrats hope this additional action in the house will create public pressure on the republican-led senate. the mood in the senate depends much more on president trump than anything democrats do. early last week the president said he believed proper background checks were an appropriate response to recent mass shootings, and the president said he believed the senate majority leader, mitch mcconnell was on the same page. in new hampshire on thursday the president sounds much less certain. this is what he told wmur in manchester. >> we're dealing with a lot to of republicans, very strong

conservative republicans, we're coming up with a plan, if we can. remember this, we have a lot of background checks already. >> and this is what he said at a rally that same day. >> people have to remember however there is a mental illness problem that has to be dealt with. it's not the gun that pulls the trigger, it's the person holding the gun. >> now if the president is backing away as he has in the past, the prospects for any senate action could depend on what republicans are hearing back home during the august recess. joni ernst heard a lot of grumbling on saturday. >> a lot of the incidents that we see do come back to mental illness. >> no! >> we are short counselors, we are short psychologists. >> it's time for you people to take action.

>> there's a number of laws that exist out there that are not followed. we see people that should not have weapons gaining access to weapons. we need to make sure the laws are being followed. >> you see the red flag being held up there. interesting to see the public pressure that gun control groups are trying to put on republicans. the president's language was interesting this past week. he got out there and said let's do background checks. he appears to be in retreat. am i reading that wrong? >> the president has to be full heartedly endorsing these gun restrictions for republicans to support them. this president is unique from the support he gets from his base. he has to give republicans political cover to support these measures. you're hearing a lot to of resistance, this growing resistance from republican senators about doing something on the red flag laws. you have a split between republican senators who

represent states such as florida, where a lot of people in the suburbs who care about this issue. you have rick scott and marco rubio advocating for these red flag laws, but senators from western states such as south dakota, wyoming, saying they're not comfortable with this idea at all. >> we shall see. we'll see where the president ends up on this one. we know where he's going. to the 2020 democrats next, including president obama's advice for joe biden. for several candidates this weekend there were appeals to black voertsd ters at a gatheri. >> the bible if it's about anything it's about justice. >> we're two or more gathered in his name. the lord is with us, let us rejoice. >> we have the power and lord knows this nation needs some holy ghost power up in here. be right back. with moderate to severe crohn's disease,

i was there, just not always where i needed to be. is she alright? i hope so. so i talked to my doctor about humira. i learned humira is for people who still have symptoms of crohn's disease after trying other medications. and the majority of people on humira saw significant symptom relief and many achieved remission in as little as 4 weeks. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. be there for you, and them. ask your gastroenterologist about humira. with humira, remission is possible.

tell him we're flexible. don't worry. my dutch is ok. just ok? (in dutch) tell him we need this merger. (in dutch) it's happening..! just ok is not ok. especially when it comes to your network. at&t is america's best wireless network and now, get the option of spotify premium on us, with your unlimited plan. more for your thing. that's our thing.

john hickenlooper is changing his 2020 ending my ca for president. >> he's likely now to run for senate instead. many top democrats wish beto o'rourke would make the same choice but he returned to the trail this week with a new focus after the mass shootings in his hometown of el paso. >> we must take the fight directly to the source of this problem. that person who caused this pain and placed this country in this moment of peril. that is donald trump. >> the next big event in the democratic race is the third debate, three weeks from now. a new fox news poll shows joe biden still atop the field at 31% nationally. elizabeth warren has climbed into a clear second place, 20% support now. warren's steady rise is catching

even the president's attention. >> i did the pocahontas thing. i hit her hard it looked like she was down and out. but that was too long ago. i should have waited. don't worry, we will revive it it can be revived. it can be revived, right? it will be revived. it can be revived very easily. and very quickly. we'll have some fun in the state of new hampshire. >> um, we could talk forever about pocahontas and whether it's racist and offensive, but the fact that elizabeth warren has the president's attention again tells you everything. >> she's having a little bit of a surge in the polls now. they made a couple of good bets. they bet on policy on a way of breaking through. they bet they could raise enough money from small dollar donations and free the candidates up from spending a lot of time in peoples hamptons homes raising money.

that's worked out well for them. of course the summer surge does not necessarily equal a winter win. it's only august. things are looking good for her. the one who may be the most concerned about this and probably ought to be is bernie sanders. because you wonder if there's room for both of them in this race. but, yeah, elizabeth warren is having a moment right now. >> you have nine candidates qualified so far for the next debate. that's not official yet. if you look at the data and look at the campaigns, you have nine. among them beto o'rourke, who has struggled. his poll numbers have gone down of late. you could see his emotion and animation after being home in el paso after a tragic shooting at home. people said use that moment to run for the texas senate seat. he said no, he won't do that under any circumstances. there's a december 9th filing delind deadline. he's pushing for nationwide mandatory buyback of assault

style rifles. social media giants held liable if they fail to control content pushing violence. does he have it? does very to do this by the next debate by the beginning of the year? >> i think o'rourke is in a duff position here. he had a big burst of energy and then got lost in this crowded field. he's grappling with some of the same things that other second and third tier candidates are grappling with. how do you break through. there's an established top tier. coming out of this horrible shooting in el paso, he will recalibrate. he will approach this race in a different way. he won't spend all his time in iowa, new hampshire and carolina. he was in mississippi where we had the chicken plants that were raided by i.c.e. he will make this contrast argument with trump in places that are less traditional for a

democratic candidate. it's a strategy, if he can get attention and if people start saying hey, there's something interesting going on. we like that. but mississippi doesn't vote early. he still needs a good showing in iowa and new hampshire if he's going to keep the campaign going. >> the question is how much does the national media environment matter more -- >> voters in iowa would say they still want you there. >> the same in nevada and south carolina. they want the candidates to come to those states. i think that o'rourke has a message that could resonate with those voters. i heard from a lot of democrats they feel as though they have yet to hear this overarching message against trump, a very effective way to combat him on moral grounds. so you see that o'rourke is trying to do that. going to mississippi and arkansas, i'm not sure that's the smartest play when you're trying to make substantial gains in a primary. he and buttigieg had those fast

surges, it looked like they were putting lightning in a bottle. >> they have plateaued. you have the two progressive dynamics, warren and sanders, if you're o'rourke or buttigieg, you look at joe biden. coming up, elizabeth warren's return to an issue that has proven quite problematic in the past. the first person to survive alzheimer's disease is out there. and the alzheimer's association is going to make it happen by funding scientific breakthroughs,

advancing public policy, and providing local support to those living with the disease and their caregivers. but we won't get there without you. join the fight with the alzheimer's association. we're oscar mayer deli fresh your very first sandwich,m... your mammoth masterpiece. and...whatever this was. because we make our meat with the good of the deli and no artificial preservatives. make every sandwich count with oscar mayer deli fresh. doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere.

prevagen. healthier brain. better life. is here. five days. five deals. for fifteen dollars get a different deal every weekday til six pm like endless shrimp monday admiral's feast tuesday four-course feast wednesday and more. five days. five deals. fifteen dollars. see you before six.

let's head one last time around the table and ask our great reporters to share something from their notebooks. julie pace? >> if you want to watch how the gun control debate will play out in 2020, there may be no better

state to pay attention to than arizona and that senate race. martha mcsally is likely to face off against mark kelly, the husband of gabby giffords who survived a shooting several years ago. kelly and giffords have become big fierce gun controlled a el advocates. mcksally is now saying she's opn to gun legislation. why is they doing this? the suburbs. republicans know their success in 2020 may hinge on their ability to hold the suburbs that have traditionally voted for republicans but started to move away from the trump era. a lot of republicans we talk to say gun control could shift that trend even further away from the party. >> see if they asks her leader to do anything. laura? >> this week there's a native american presidential forum in sioux falls, iowa. i'm keeping an eye on that,

elizabeth warren will be there. it's the first real test for her with her new native american proposal, dealing with issues that that community has to face. it will be the first reaction from tribal leaders about whether or not they actually fell as though she went in the right direction with this proposal which is one of the biggest she's issued so far. interesting that joe biden, kamala harris and cory booker don't appear to be attending. they face criticism for that. >> lisa? >> so i was in iowa this past week. i hate a lot of fried food. rode some good carnival rides and spent a lot of time talking to voefrts. what was striking is how few of those people mentioned bernie sanders. iowa was the state that fueled ber bernie sanders campaign last time around. now he's seeming to have some trouble there. so the question is what bernie sanders does. iowa is must-win or must-place for him.

it's hard for him to see having the momentum to get through a crowded primary like this without support from iowa. his aides seem to tune in later. it's not that they're not out there backing him still, it's just that they haven't engaged in the race. that's a bit of a risky proposition, there are signs from the sanders camp they are feeling nervous. he's working the rest, trashing the media, fairly unusual for a democrat. not unprecedented. so i think it's going to be an interesting dynamic to watch. bernie sanders lost the primary last time but maybe won the argument. the question this time around is whether there are other people democrats would prefer to carry on the legacy. >> i'm watching a nasty controversial fight over a new trump judicial nominee. he's been nominated for the 2nd circuit court of appeals. did not have the support of chuck schumer. democrats are calling on him to withdraw from the nomination

over controversial law review articles which is infuriating republicans. that's going to be a really heated fight in the coming weeks. just remember how important the courts are to this president but also particularly to senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. we have 43 circuit court judges confirmed under the president's tenure right now. about 100 district court judges. they will continue to confirm more and more as the -- as the rest of the term goes on. >> the president wants that for the campaign trail as well. judges, judges, judges. that's it for "inside politics." catch us weekdays as well. we're here at noon eastern. up next, "state of the union" with jake tapper. his guests include peter navarro and pete buttigieg. i want to take a moment to say good-bye to a friend and long-time member of our cnn family who passed away this past week. dale fountain was the driver of the cnn express, our campaign bus and traveling studio. he was so much more than that. dale was funny, humble, hard

working, unflappable one of the many behind the scenes miracle workers that you don't know at home who never get enough credit for making, it v happen. dale loved being a cnn ambassador, driving that giant billboard of a bus into every corner of the country he so loved. it was a gift and a privilege to see so much of it with him. at visionworks, we guarantee you'll see great

and look great. "guarantee". we uh... we say that too. you gotta use "these" because we don't mean it. buy any pair at regular price, get one free. really. visionworks. see the difference. at t-mobile, for $40/line for four lines, it's all included for the whole family, starting with unlimited data. use as much as you want, when you want. and if you like netflix, it's included on us. plus no surprises on your bill. taxes and fees are included. and now for a limited time, with each new line, get one of our latest smartphones included. that's right, only $40/line for four lines and smartphones are included for the whole family.

♪ (music plays throughout♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

inflaming the debate. president trump using a foreign ally to exploit the political guide here and punish opponents. >> keep america great. we have these socialists who want to take it away from us. >> that is score settling as a new poll shows trouble for the president against several of his 2020 rivals. will the politics of division work a second time? and recession jitters. president trump said to be rattled as economic alarm bells cause a wild week on wall street. can the president convince voters that he is still the best guy for their money? >> let's not do the gloom and doom. it's all good >> i'll piece to white house trade adviser peter