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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  August 18, 2019 7:00am-8:01am PDT

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this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. we'll start today's show with fears of a global recession. the u.s. and china are in a trade war and it's been more than ten years since the last recession ended. this week markets were rattled. we need to buckle up. i have a great panel to discuss.
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and the climate crisis. the world's wealthy are disproportionately responsible for it. while the planet's poor suffer the most. > ireland's former president will tell me how to turn this climate injustice into justice. then from the mountains of idaho to the hallowed halls of cambridge, university, how did author tara westover go from a family that forbade it to a ph.d. at one of the greatest universities. she'll tell me her amazing story. but first, here's my take -- the trump administration has an emerging deal with the taliban. and it has the potential to bring greater stability to afghanistan after an 18-year inconclusive war in that country. or it could reignite the afghan
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civil war, emboldening terrorist groups and plunging the nation into another decade of turmoil, which might then force the united states to return to the battlefield in large numbers. that is, after all, what happened after the u.s. withdrew too quickly from iraq in 2011. it all depends on how it is handled from now. the key must be a political settlement between the taliban and the afghan government, and not the rapid withdrawal of u.s. troops. president trump deserves some credit for having authorized the negotiations from dough har between a special envoy and the taliban. the next step is to broaden the talks to involve the afghan government itself. the end result would be a national unity government that includes both the current afghan government and the taliban. but the crucial issue for washington is to ensure that it does not make concessions that are hard to reverse, such as
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drawing down american troops, while the taliban for its part makes paper commitments it can easily violate. the former ambassador to afghanistan worries we may be watching a replay of vietnam in which the u.s. got commitments from north vietnam in return for its withdrawal. but once u.s. troops were withdrawn, north vietnam reneged on its commitments and invaded south vietnam. the most effective way to make sure this does not happen in afghanistan is for washington to delay the troop drawndowns until tangible gains have been made in terms of political power sharing and national reconciliation. it can push the taliban to keep its promises by formally bringing neighboring powers such as china, pakistan, and even iran into the discussions. the united states has faced this exit strategy problem every time it has waged a war against a guerrilla force. it was described in a foreign
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affairs essay written prior to his appointment as national security adviser in 1969. while the u.s. pursues a military strategy, he wrote, the guerrillas have a psychological strategy, which is simply to exhaust america's willpower. thus, america loses by not winning. but the guerrillas win just by not losing. the taliban has gone one step further than a guerrilla operation having established its own governance independent from the afghan national government in some areas. but the group's core strategy does appear to be wait out the united states. if the deal between the taliban and washington is to hold, trump must signal that he would send back the troops if the taliban breaks its end of the deal. trust but verify, ronald reagan said. that should be the mantra for these negotiations. everyone will seek gains from the u.s. up front in return for promises to be fulfilled later.
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washington should not be fooled. the united states has actually achieved a lot in afghanistan. the country is in a decent place after years of civil war and taliban rule. let me give you one example. under the taliban there were only 1 million afghan children in school. today there are more than 9 million. the terrorist organization that the taliban har bored, al qaeda has been severely weakened. and the cost for america today, 14,000 troops, are not nearly what they once were. the u.s. could cut that number to 8,000 or 9,000 under the new deal while still maintaining order in afghanistan and fighting terrorism. but first, washington needs to make sure it doesn't just end the war but also wins the peace. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column. let's get started.
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>> the u.s. and china are in a trade war that is rattling markets, for certain. let's not forget japan and south korea are also in a trade tussle and then there's the future mess brexit will inflict on global trade. if you add in the fact that it's been more than ten years since the last recession ended, and make note of the won can. y fact that the two-year treasury rate has topped the ten-year rate, you get the understandable fear of recession. in is a serious matter and we have a serious panel to discuss it. rana foroohar, cnn's global economic fanlist, richard house is the president of the council on foreign relations. rana, you wrote a piece saying the global recession has actually already begun. now, that is still a minority view. tell me why you think it's happening? >> well, even before you have this inverted bond yield curve which is a wonky way of saying
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people are worried about the economy going forward, even before that you had a lot of sips that all is not well. if you look over the last 18 months at manufacturing indexes, they are down in basically every major country except india. europe in particular in the eurozone down very sharply. germany has gone into recession. china is slowing down. also the u.s. consumer, which, you know, we hear a lot about how intoabmplt uyoyant the u.s. economy is. you're seeing interesting voting patterns, working class white women turning away from trump because they're worried about the slowing economy. you're seeing people scale back on gasoline purchases in the middle of a summer travel season. i've been looking beyond the headline figures and i think there's a lot of weakness. >> and do you think that the -- shall we call it policy uncertainty because there really is japan, south korea, u.s./china, u.s./europe. there's still dangers of trade
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wars -- that adds to it? >> hugely. with any previous downturn you can think of, there's been policy coordination across borders. the u.s. in -- in the 2008 there was the g-20 meeting in london. there were recession fears in 2015. again, international coordination. the prospect of any international coordination with trump as president is extremely low. so the policy uncertainty really comes from the white house. america is not playing the role and is very unlikely to play the role to help, coordinate an international response to a global downturn that it's been playing for 70 years. that's a huge factor here. >> and trump is, you know, seems to be almost worried about the politics more than the policy where he's trying to position it as if this is all the federal reserve's fault, right? >> he is at war with his own chairman of the federal reserve. just as an aside, interest rates are already historically low. there's not a lot of stimulus,
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shall we say, still to be played out. fiscal stimulus is already great given what we've done. we're leading the cycle, as anyone who follows the market. >> explain what you mean, interest rates are low, they can't be cut too much further. we've already done a big tax cut. the budget deficit is high. you can't do more government spending. so we're out of ammunition? >> pretty much. we're close to being out of it. you have all the geopolitics, which are an overlay, plus one other thing, donald trump's trade war. he's at war with himself in an odd sort of way. his biggest talking point has been the stimulus he's given to the american economy. what he's doing on tuesdays, thursdays, saturdays and essentially offsetting that with tarif tariffs, be it against china or everybody else. he's now become, in some ways, the greatest overhang over his own biggest accomplishment. >> the chinese have tried to calm the waters. this is a very rare thing to see. it's not the u.s.
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the u.s. is roiling the waters and china is saying, don't worry, we'll meet them halfway. >> the chinese have always said, we're willing to come to the table but they've made it clear that a trade deal would be between equals. . unfortunately, president trump seems constitutionally incapable of creating a win-win situation. in order for him to feel he's won, he needs to crush the other side. the chinese have drawn a line in the sand. when they do that, they don't back away. i think the other thing the markets are worried about is the this most recent fed cut didn't juice things. i agree with richard, we're at the end of a long period of easy money. i think all the psychology is now coming to the fore and you'll see fits and starts but i think the next two months will be a downward cycle. >> with china, it's almost like north korea. we're asking for things they cannot give. we tell north korea you have to give up your nuclear weapons, they're not going to do it. china is not going to take the
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state out of the economy. they're not going to become capitalists tomorrow. it's going to remain a guided economy. we're asking for things that mean either we fall off our own demands or there cannot be a trade deal. next on "gps," we'll go from fears of global recession to fears of global instability. brexit combines both and i'll ask ed luce about that. bend at the waist! i'm tryin'! keep it up. you'll get there. whoa-hoa-hoa! 30 grams of protein, and one gram of sugar. ensure max protein.
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doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. the first survivor of alzis out there.ase and the alzheimer's association is going to make it happen. but we won't get there without you. join the fight with the alzheimer's association. we are back with rana foroohar, ed luce and richard
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haass. ed, your country, britain, is still on the precipice -- it seems it's been on the precipice for months and years but now it's getting serious. october 31st, if something doesn't happen, britain crashes out of the european union. what's the scenario? >> i think that's the more likely scenario. boris johnson said it's do or die. we leave by october 31st. he was only elected by 100,000 people so a lot of them are saying, go to the country -- >> before october -- >> his sort of svengali, the guy he likes, dominic cummings, the karl rove for boris johnson, would like to call a deal on the 31st. british crashing out by the 31st, there was insulating the conservative party from
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nigel's -- they deliver a no-deal brexit but too soon into no-deal brexit for the tories. this halloween scenario is becoming more and more likely and there will be a vote of no confidence in boris johnson and his government in early september. likely to succeed. he will then have a choice as to whether to step down, as has happened throughout british history if a prime minister loses a vote of no confidence, or simply in trumpian way, brazen it out. at which point we get the real sort of house of card or crown scenario where it's the queen's prerogative to decide whether to accept his continuation as prime minister or not and, indeed, his choice of november the 1st as the election date. there is no precedent for this in british history. >> the queen has always accepted the prime minister's word so far. >> she's never been given a political choice in her life. she's, what, 93.
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it's quite late to be starting. >> economically does this matter to the world if britain -- >> hugely. i think you get a little taste of what might happen looking at the argentinean market that crashed a few days ago, went down 40% or so on one day on the back of an election. the country was leaning left. if you get a situation with brexit where, say, the labor party comes in, in the u.s. if you get warren or sanders as the democratic candidate, i think that all these things are going to have a market impact. the thing that i struggle -- >> you're saying the market will be scared with so many hard left -- >> absolutely, absolutely. but i think what's interesting is that this isn't already priced in. and i think that the market has become really complacent, not only because of all the quantitative easing and easing and low interest rates but the fact all these worrisome political signals have been masked by the fact aon every dip -- every time trump says something ridiculous or there's an issue with brexit, the market goes down.
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algorithm mick traders come in and buy on the dip. you get the cycle where deep signals are being masked and i think that sets us up for bigger downturns in the future. >> let me ask you about the political crisis because it seems even there we have a lot of stuff flaring up and the trump administration does seem to have kind of turned up the heat on all of them without a clear strategy in mind. so, you know, north korea, there was this maximalist pressure that was tried and didn't work. on iran the maximalist pressure. on u.s./china, it seems like a slight withdrawal. but we're still in a point where a lot of stuff has been set to bubble. >> an optimist would say with a normal administration they've turned up the heat, teed it up, to switch metaphors, and now a deal to be had. not denuclearization with north korea but an agreement that puts a limit on what north korea can have. they dismantle some things. with iran, maybe gets a new nuclear deal with extended limits on iran. with china, we don't solve all of our differences but we sofl
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some of them. that would be a normal -- that's called diplomacy. not a word we hear a lot about. this administration so far has an all or nothing approach. if you have an all or nothing approach, what we're seeing is you end up with nothing. the question going forward is whether they continue to insist it's our way or the highway or whether they're willing to deal. up to now they haven't been. ironically, if they want to, if they're prepared to, i actually think there are some deals out there, but so far at least they're not willing to play the traditional game. >> it's even beyond the u.s. everybody seems to be kind of -- being -- being a little more reckless. that at least is how i would read india's decision on kashmir. you were a correspondent in india for many years. what do you think of it? first, explain to people, i think it would be fair to describe it this way. india basically -- control kashmir, a third of kashmir. it essentially has made that de
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facto and -- >> and kashmir is only india's majority muslim state, as you know. and it's had this special state us within india's constitutional -- constitution article 370, giving it strong autonomy from the rest of india's interference. modi abruptly ended that last week. even put all of elected leaders under house arrest. tens of thousands more troops have been put into the valley of kashmir. the interesting sort of larger context of this is kashmir's a bit like one of those so-called frozen conflicts. the sort of benign umbrella of the united states around the world. you mention japan, south korea's situation earlier has managed to keep a lid on some of these antagonisms. the con tegs for modi's decision is, a, he got re-elected
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thumpingly a few months ago and that has obviously given him a mandate, in his view, to roll back kashmir's autonomy. b, trump, when he met pakistan's prime minister offered to mediate the india/car myrrh/pakistan dispute. india as a cardinal rule rejects any third-party mediation. khan could not believe his luck. and i think this was taken as a severe provocation, even by trumpian standards by narendra modi and helped precipitate this to close down kashmir's autonomy. we have a very, very unstable situation there that america would ordinarily be attempting to help rather than fuel. >> this seems to be another example, richard, of the lack of preparation leading to something, because i don't think trump intended that but ed makes
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a good point. modi changed the facts on the ground to bypass the possibility of america -- >> it was pre-emptive diplomatic strike to take kashmir off the agenda. we have played a role. not to mediate kashmir, not to solve this frozen conflict, but to make sure these two nuclear-armed countries that have not even the basics of a real relationship, that they don't go to war. even if they don't begin with nuclear weapons, it could all too easily escalate. in may 1990 bob gates and i were sent over there to basically calm down exactly this. what worries me is they may now be headed in that direction. and the united states no longer practices the art of constructive diplomacy. that is -- my hunch is when the world looks at the problem, this might be right now suddenly at the top of the queue of the most underestimated really dangerous crisis in the world. >> meanwhile, rana, you are
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cashing your stocks and going into an all-cash portfolio? >> i announced myself, i came out this week and said -- six months ago i actually took my children's college money to cash and last week i took my own retirement savings largely to cash. >> don't try this at home, folks. do whatever you want. next on "gps," there is a movement in south africa to seize land held by white people. it has echoes of what happened just to the north in zimbabwe two decades ago. that event unleashed horrific violence. will south africa follow suit? we'll tell you when we come back. us.ith netflix on and now with each new line, get one of our latest smartphones included. $40/line for four lines and smartphones are included for the whole family. knowmore shrimp!reat with steak and shrimp? and you know what goes great with that shrimp? steak and unlimited shrimp! and this year, with two freshly made sides, you'll get more than you imagined.
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now for our "what in the world" segment. cyril ramaphosa is facing a fierce debate over an age old problem -- land. specifically who owns it and who doesn't. that issue is an open wound in the country's post-apartheid era. on the left there are calls for the government to seize land held by white south africans putting serious pressure on president ramaphosa's government. for farmers this is expropriation without compensation are familiar. they evoke the violence of government-mandated seizures of white-owned farms in neighboring zimbabwe two decades ago. for many it stirs up debate that africa could fall to economic devastation like its neighbor to the north. emotions about land reform run high and misinformation abounds. here are the facts. expropriation without
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compensation has happened before in south africa. in 1913 the government passed the natives land act. back then it grabbed 87% of land for whites. and corralled black south africans onto reserves where they had no individual ownership rights. black livelihoods were destroyed. today not enough has changesed. 72 cultural land is owned by whites, who make up 9% of the population. 4% of that land is owned by black south africans who make up 79% of the population. nelson mandela pledged 30% of land held by whites would be distributed to poor black citizens after apartheid, but progress is painfully slow. it's not hard to see why. land reform is disruptive in a robin hood sort of way. assist the economist notes, it involves the government grabbing land from the relatively well off and doling it out to the
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poor. this often involves a fight. take china, in 1949 after the communist revolution, the government began grabbing land from landlords who were the victims of brutal violence. almost half the country's land was distributed to 300 million people. the violence was horrific, but the reform had immediate effects. according to the economist, grain output soared by as much as 70% in the decade following 1945. but revolution isn't always bloody. for instance, south korea in the 1950s peacefully distributed private farms to tillers minting 1.56 million small land owners. taiwan also benefitted from reforms around the same time. scholars have often noted good land reform policies help build a middle class that then helps democracy flourish. but let's return to africa, specifically zimbabwe.
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robert mugabe doled out land to cronies which called deep economic suffering. the narrative was that it was an unmitigated disaster. ben cousins points out the legacy of zimbabwe land reform is more complex than the dominant narrative. particularly when you consider the case of tobacco farmers. as "the new york times" reported which 2,000 mostly white tobacco farmers were forced from their land tens of thousands of mostly black farmers took their place. at first production ebbed but rose creating livelily hoods for the once landless. in the end, the case for land reform in south africa is not merely a moral one. properly and sensibly executed, land reform is also good economics and good politics. next on "gps" -- over the last century the world's wealthiest countries have been the main drivers of the climate
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crisis while the world's poorest suffer from its effects. is it possible to change that calculus? my next guest, a powerful woman on the world stage has made that her mission. the alzheimer's assn is going to make it happen , has made that her mission. ing public pol, and providing local support to those living with the disease and their caregivers. but we won't get there without you. join the fight with the alzheimer's association.
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i was recently in ags pen, colorado, and taped interviews you're about to see. that ski is a playground for the wealthy. an oxfam found the globe's
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wealthiest 10% are -- the poorest half of the population are responsible for only 10% of those emissions, but the poor are most vulnerable to the climate crisis, which is in large part caused by those emissions. the guest you're about to meet is trying to right that wrong and achieve what she calls climate justice for the poor. mary robinson is not just an activist, she was the first female president of ireland. she was then the u.n.'s high commissioner for human rights. she's now chair of the elders, a group founded by nelson mandela that brings global leaders together to cultivate a world that is peaceful and just. welcome. >> thank you. >> tell me how you solve this problem because it just seems like a conundrum. historically the world's rich countries have caused this problem of climate change, but the most vulnerable, the issues of the world that will face flooding and they can't afford
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the dikes. how do you do something about this? >> i think the first thing is to make it more people-centered. that means looking at it from the point of the view of impact on people now. this isn't a problem of the future, which quite a few people still think it is. melting glashiers, melting slowly somewhere and it will -- no. it's an absolute problem now, all over the world, including here in the united states. and what we need to do is, i think, get everybody to take three steps. the first step is make it personal in your life. do something that you wouldn't have been doing and deal with your own carbon footprint in some way. that might mean recycle more carefully, change your eating habits. i've been a pescatarian. i don't eat meat anymore. and get angry and active. get cities and governments to do more and get active with your voice and those trying to deal with conservation, planting
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trees, solar energy to poor countries. the third, this is the most important, we have to imagine this world that we need to be hurrying towards because we have the -- the scientist told us last october, we have 12 years. now we're in august of the 11st year. we have less than 11 years, in which to reduce global carbon emissions by 45% globally. at the moment, we're not going the right direction. last year carbon emissions went up. this year they will go up. >> let me ask you about another issue you're very active on, which is the state of women, particularly women's health worldwide. you're very worried about it because of something that's come out of the trump administration recently. >> yes. when president trump was elected, he reintroduced what is called a global gag rule, which is supposed to prevent abortions in developing countries. but the rule is so broad that it prevents proper family planning, family planning advice. >> the version of the trump administration gag rule is broader than any previous one. >> yes.
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president reagan was the first to introduce it, president clinton removed it, president bush put another one in and president obama removed it. president trump has -- it's really serious. the number of abortions that go wrong when you don't have any legal abortion in countries, women would still want to terminate an unwanted pregnancy. there's a great loss of life of mothers in africa. african friends have spoken to me about the problem. there's an unmet need. there are 200 million women who would wish to have family planning services in south africa, asia, and countries are dealing with population increase which is preventing them from having good development, literally because africa's population is doubling before 2015. there are -- it's a problem that we need to address in a holistic way. what's the solution? educating girls and women and having a health system that functions that brings down maternal deaths and brings down
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child deaths. have i quickly as we've seen in other countries, the graph will turn and women will have less children because they space them. >> in general we think of those broader trends for women as positive. would you share that view? >> i'm very focused at the moment on one trend, which is a very good one. women have suddenly become very aware of the climate issue. they were aware in africa, of course. they were aware in south asia because they deal -- this is so much a part of their lives. but until recently women in europe and women in united states and canada were not aware. they would talk about me too, equal pay, health issues and talk about climate but not know how to talk about it. and i think the report of the scientist last october has changed that. suddenly this is a big problem for my children and grandchildren. suddenly women leaders are really moving. and i'm so blessed. i can't tell you how many meetings i'm attending where women are having declarations on climate justice.
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women are meeting to take control of this issue. >> mary robinson, pleasure to have you on. >> pleasure. thank you. up next, my next guest grew up in rural idaho with a mormon survivalist father who did not believe in school. she ended up getting a ph.d. from cambridge university and has now written a memoir of her journey to educate herself in more ways than one. tara westover's fascinating story when we come back. at t-mobile, for $40/line for four lines, it's all included for the whole family. like unlimited with netflix on us.
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september is around the corner. that means kids across the country have had their first day of school or about to. my next guest never knew that feeling. tara westover grew up in idaho, the daughter of mormon survivalists. never had a birth certificate, never went to the doctor and never attended school. her childhood was assisting her father and mother with their businesses, including scrapping metal in a dangerous junkyard. tara was able to teach herself enough to earn an a.c.t. score that got her into brigham university, and went to cambridge and to harvard and returned to cambridge where she received a ph.d. in 2014. her memoir of her journey
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"educated" has spent 77 weeks on "the new york times" best sellers list and counting. so, it's a fascinating story. and there are so many parts of it that i don't know how to get at it. one thought i this is for you, what in retrospect seems the most totally bizarre part of your upbringing with regard to the lack of education, not going to a doctor even when you would get -- you know, because you're dealing with scrap metal and you point out you'd keep getting hurt. i read all that, seems so bizarre. for you now, what part of it do you look back and say, i can't believe i survived that? >> you know, i have to reconstruct the feelings because i think part of being a kid is that you only have the one life and whatever life your life is, that's normal to you. you don't have anything else to compare it to. >> when did you -- when did you realize that it wasn't -- it was unusual? >> i knew that other kids went to school and i knew my family
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was particular -- peculiar, you might even say, but as a child i experienced that as we were right, god wanted us not to go to school, not go to the doctor and so we were better. i think at some time, i think i was a good way through college before i began to identify with a different way of thinking. >> was going to college already a bee betrayal from your parents' point of view? >> my dad was not supportive when i wanted to go to a college. he had a traditionalist idea of what a woman should do, get married, have children and stay home. that was difficult for him to begin with. he was also a little bit of a paranoid person and he was very anxious that i would go and get brainwashed at the university and come back with a whole lot of ideas, which is kind of what happened. >> talk about that for a second. that -- you did learn later he was bipolar. the idea that education would
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brainwash you to become a kind of socialist, the i willuminoti controlled the world, the conspiracy theory. the enormous suspicious, that is something people that live in cities don't recognize, there is a lot of that out there and there is a great distrust of metropolitan elites. where do you think it comes from? >> i think it is something that is based in reality. but the manifestation of it is not based in reality. i'll try to explain what i mean by that. i think there is a real sense for people that do not live in the urban centers in this country are disenfranchised in meaningful ways. i did this experiment the other day where i took the 21 -- the 25 poorest states in the union and 21 of them, i discover, voted for trump. so i think you're looking for a source of populism, why is it people are so frustrated with
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the system? when i go home to idaho i hear how frustrated they are with the system. i think you have parts of the country that are dying. i was in my hometown, the county seat of my hometown a couple months ago of my cousin and all the shopdz were closed. every store we had been to as a child. there was a funeral parlor that had been there since i was a kid and a new funeral parlor. my cousin turned to me and said, it's getting where the only thing to do in town is die. i don't think it's a bad metaphor for what these people are experiencing. their whole way of life is evaporating. i think what could be good for the country as a whole, whether it's globalization, technology, all the ways the world is changes, economists will tell us, this is good for the country as a whole are disaster yoous f them. the feeling there's an elite crowd, they're the ones in
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charge, i don't think that's crazy. i don't necessarily agree with the conclusions they come to and the way it manifests. in fact, don't agree with them at all but i think the sentiment is rooted in something. >> there's so much in this book. there's one part i do want to ask you about where you say you think the most crucial lesson you might have gotten was at a point at which you started to read the book of mormon. you couldn't understand it. you were puzzled. but you knew out of deference and because, you know, it was the most important book in your life, you had to read it. explain why that might have been the best thing that happened to you. >> i think a lot of people are angry with my parents because i say they didn't provide me with a good education. in some ways that's true. they were not attentive to my education and i struggled a lot as a result. on this point i was brought to read the book of bible, book of mormon and other 19th century texts and they were difficult. and i was conditioned to a way of thinking that my education was my responsibility and it was important for me to wrestle with
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hard things and it was okay to read things that were too -- but i couldn't understand yet. i think in a lot of ways that old biblical style education, engaging with very difficult texts, in a lot of ways i feel it was a pretty good education. there were some holes. i would struggle because of some of those holes. it's not as if -- if i had my own kids, would i do the same thing? no. but i think there were things to be learned there. >> and things to be learned by all of us from your book. thank you. >> thank you. >> pleasure. we will be back. our mission is to provide complete, balanced nutrition for strength and energy! whoo-hoo! great-tasting ensure. with nine grams of protein and twenty-six vitamins and minerals. ensure, for strength and energy. and twenty-six vitamins and minerals. let's see, aleve is than tylenol extra strength. and last longer with fewer pills. so why am i still thinking about this? i'll take aleve.
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johnson says his nation will exit the eu on october 31st come hell or high water. and it just became clearer that the trump administration has johnson's back. even if the uk hurdles out of the eu without a deal. while national security adviser john bolton was in london this week, he told reporters, i think if that's the decision of the british government, we will support it enthusiastically and that's what i'm trying to convey. we are with you. we are with you.
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that brings me to my question -- which of the following countries will see the largest increase in exports to the uk after a no-deal brexit? the united states, china, south africa or japan? stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. my book this week is actually a tv show. "our boys" is an intense dram tieization of the 2014 kidnapping and murder of three israeli boys and the subsequent murder of a palestinian boy. the series is airing mondays at 9:00 p.m. on hbo which like cnn is owned by warner media. "our boys" tells the stories from both the palestinian and israeli sides. it had an israeli director for the israeli story line and a palestinian director for the story from that side of the border. it's a novel technique that helps to form a very powerful series about two devastating hate crimes with vast repercussions.
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a cautionary tale in an age when hate runs far too rampant. the answer to my "gps" challenge is week is "b." china could add $10.2 billion in exports to the uk if the british and european economies split without a deal, according to a u.n. report. the u.s. and japan each stand to make roughly $5 billion in british-bound exports. the hardest hit would be the european union, whose exports to the british market would shrink by an estimated $36 billion. so, while all eyes might be on london and brussels, make no mistake, brexit will affect countries all across the globe. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. the first survivor of alzheimer's disease
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and try febreze unstopables for fabric. with up to twice the fresh scent power, you'll want to try it... ...again and again and maybe just one more time. indulge in irresistible freshness. febreze unstopables. breathe happy. i'm john avlon in for brian stelter. it's time for "reliable sources," a look behind the stories, how the need yeah really works and how all of us can make it better. this hour we'll have a special focus. welcome to the disinformation wars. how weaponized lies are being spread through social media with the goal of inflaming divisions and undermining not just the free press but democracy itself. we'll have an exclusive report on the massive disinformation economy with aid quarter of a billion dollars being spent to put ads on websites devoted to fake news and hate news. also cnn's own clarissa ward is the subject of a russian disinformation campaign. we'll