this is gps, the global public square. welco welcome. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. we'll start today's show with the attack on saudi arabia's oil infrastructure and iran's threat of all-out war if the islamic republic is attacked. >> then, a whistle blower cries foul because president trump made a promise to a foreign leader. we'll dig into that story. what to make of israel's election results. all of that with a great panel. and an interview with the secretary general of the united

nations. on monday he will call for urgent action on climate change. will it work? finally, with almost eight billion humans on the planet, we're constantly interacting with people we don't know. are we too trusting of them? malcolm gladwell gives us the answer. but first here is my take. the enemy gets a vote. american military leaders are fond of using that line. general james mattis used it so often it is sometimes attributed to him. in fact, it is a nugget of wisdom dating back to the chinese military strategist. and it describing the simple mistake of donald trump's iran policy. in a confidential memo that was later leaked, britain's ambassador to washington wrote something that most knew anyway.

trump pulled out of the deal because it had been signed by barack obama. the decision has unleashed serious political consequences. the strategy such as it is appears to double down on pressure on iran, force other nations to abide by american's unilateral sanctions and bet that this would cause iran to capitulate. iran's initial reaction was restrained. it simply sought to bypass the u.s. it continued to adhere to the deal and made efforts to trade with other countries. this failed. because of the dollar's centrality, this worked. iran's economy suffered a big blow and its oil experts plummeted. european countries tried to create an alternative, but so far it has not succeeded.

iran's next effort has been to demonstrate that there is a cost to this kind of maximum pressure. it has ships in the persian gulf reminding everyone that 20% of the world's auto supply goes through that body of water. it shot down an american drone signaling to the pentagon. and now they are behind a precision on saudi arabia's main oil processing plants. it initially shut down half of saudi oil production. the message is clear, hostilities with iran would spill over throughout the middle east and disrupt global oil supplies. the enemy voted, and its behavior was the opposite of what the trump administration expected. maximum pressure on iran did not moderate its behavior or make it come crawling back to the table. instead, it provoked iran to

retaliate. the status quo sanctions is hard enough on tayron that it feels it has less to lose. there is also the reality of domestic politics within the islamic republic. the iran deal was unpopular with hard liners in the u.s. but also with hard liners in tie ron. that he predicted washington would renig on its promises. there is a line that jim mattis has coined. nations with allies thrive and nations without allies wither. it is striking that american risked on this strategy toward iran with support from few allies. trump treats european allies poorly to begin with. it appears to be the main reason that mattis resigned as secretary of defense. they are actively seeking to thwart american's policies

towards iran. in the art of war, he writes the victo defeat is all but guaranteed with a leader that is reckless, mur do you recall and prideless. timely analysis from the sixth century b.c. read my washington post column this week. and let's get started. let's bring in today's panel. there is much to discuss. the director of policy plans at the state department. robin wright is a contributing writer for the new yorker. she's one of the world's foremost reporters on the middle east. and martin has been u.s. ambassador to israel twice. before we get to iran, let me

just ask you. the whistle blower ukraine scandal issue, how should we think about it? the argument is that donald trump tried to pressure the incoming president of ukraine to investigate supposed corruption of joe biden's son. he says he did nothing wrong. and in fact the investigation should be about the actual corruption of joe biden's son or the alleged corruption i should say, sorry. what's the bottom line? >> so, fareed, to good journalists should be following the evidence and not the spin, right? there is no evidence, no evidence has been corroborated a anywhere that biden actually intervened on behalf of his son. there is evidence that hunter

biden has done things embarrassing to the president. that's an old story when we talk about kids and candidates. indeed it's true of president trump as well. there appears to be evidence from an inside whiesle blower, not a partisan on the campaign trail, that trump in fact asked a foreign government to investigate one of his political opponents. that, if true, is inviting a foreign government to intervene in our domestic politics on behalf of the president. that is a very serious offense. but that's what the story should be. we should follow that evidence and not give credence to an effort to then bring hunter biden into everything. >> all right. we're going to move on because we have so many things to talk b about. robin, you have some new reporting on u.s. retaliation for the iran or the strikes on saudi arabia that many are

attributing to iran. what has the u.s. done? and do you think it will be enough? or is the u.s. thinking it has to do more to push back against iran? >> i think the u.s. is considering a whole range of options. but we know -- i know from sources that the u.s. did strike a cyber attack on friday first reported by net blocks. my sources confirmed that this happened. but this is not the first time the united states did this in the aftermath of the iranian's shooting down the u.s. drone as well. and this has become a regular pattern. cyber warfare happens much more than any of us know because it is invisible. the un will work hard to build this maritime coalition around iran that will send a signal, you know, we're watching. we'll act. don't mess around with us again. but there are other things going on. there is still -- the door is still a bit ajar on a dip

employ lowmatic initiative. the supreme leader said this week that talks at any level were off the table unless the united states lifted sanctions and went back to some form of nuclear agreement. there is an idea on the table that would be permanent ban on nuclear weapons in iran in exchange for a permanent lifting of sanctions that would have to be codified by the parliaments legislaturie ins in both countr >> the trump administration has put iran in a box with these sanctions that are strangling the iranian economy. but it's also put itself in a box because it now has to respond. it's given iran no option but an incentive to act in this way.

but now it has to respond in some way. >> i think, fareed, we're actually at a turning point in terms of u.s. policy in the middle east as manifested in the trump tweet that it's been a long time coming. he said in one of his tweets that the united states no longer needs middle eastern oil. that is correct. that is as a result of the natural gas fracking revolution in the united states. we are the largest oil production producer in the world today. we no longer have a vital interest, one in which american soldiers should die for the protection of american interest in terms of oil flow from the gulf. that's been coming for a long time. that was obama view, too. in the process he sent a signal to iran and saudi arabia that the united states cannot be relied on in the same way as in the past to defend saudi arabia. in fact, he even tweeted that they should pay.

they should do it. we will support them, and they should pay. but if that's what he's going to do, then he cannot -- exactly as you say, he's in a corner. if he keepingen ins on upping pressure, the iranians will retaliate especially since they see he will not use force against them. he has to decide now maximum pressure isn't working i.'s only driving him into a situation that he has to choose a military retaliation orca pitchlation to iran yan demand. he needs to go back to the negotiating table, use the sanctions at leverage, offer waivers in order to get back to the table and at the same time do these kinds of acts that make it clear to the iranians that there is a price to be paid. >> robin, you covered the iranian war. you talked to people like foreign ministers many times

this year. would they will willing to give trump additional concessions so he could claim victory and say, i got a better deal than obama? >> trump doesn't want to use force and he would like is deal and there may be more guarantees in terms of iran out of this because trump would have to go to congress and make sure that the next president doesn't turn around and undo whatever was agreed under president trump. they're looking for some kind of permanent arrangement. so i think there is an incentive still for both sides. how do you do that after hour years? the president of france has been instrumental in trying to get the two sides over the fence this past week. but the fact is nobody is ruling out diplomacy yet. >> ann marie, 30 seconds. the ratcheting up pressure on iran doesn't seem as though they know what they want. >> no.

they don't have a strategy for actually getting a better deal. they pulled out of the deal. and now i keep thinking this is the cuban missile crisis where dean russ said we're eyeball to eyeball and the other guy just blinked. that's what the iranian is saying. and we don't have any way of getting out of that except by doing things we don't want to do. when we come back, israel, what is coming for netan next? biopharmaceutical researchers. driven each day to pursue life-changing cures... in a country built on fostering innovation.

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. and we are back with our panel. martin, what is going to happen in israel? >> it's complicated. the magic number is 61. that's the majority of the seats which somebody needs to be able to pull together in order to form a government. in this phase of government formation, the president has to decide who will get the first chance to form the government, whether it will be gantz or prime minister netanyahu. it looks today as if gantz will get the nod because today the joint arab list, the third largest party, they got 13 seats. they came out and said they would tell the president that they would support gantz if he

tried to form a government. >> this is the first time they have been actively willing to participate in government. >> and this is a kind of revolution in terms of the role of the arab citizens in terms of coming into the mainstream israel politics in a way. as opposed to netanyahu's incitement of them beforehand. they came out in larger numbers about three more seats than last time in april and helped to reduce his chances of forming a government. so now that the chance, i think, will go to gantz, can he put together a government? he has with arab support whether inside his government or outside, probably outside, 57. so he's four seats short. the man who has the swing vote is the man from muldova. he has eight seats, and he said he will only support a national.

gantz said yes, but not with netanyahu. it is a "game of thrones." we have to remember it is not over until the man from buldova sings. >> does it matter that donald trump seemed to distance himself saying our relationship is with israel, not with any individual? >> it was stunning he would so quickly come out and say something considering that these men are close and have been for decades that this is a fundamental, personal and political diplomatic relationship and that trump seems willing to move on. the big question, of course, is what happens with the trump peace plan. the administration -- remember, the president said this will be so much easier than anybody else thinks. here we are. we're still waiting. the question is does it have any traction afterwards. what does the president do next in trying to cement this?

i mean, one of the great tragedies is we're now more than a quarter century since the last real big peace effort, and we're nowhere closer. the road maps, all the plans are out the window and it's lost the kind of momentum that it had. >> i have to ask you. i notice elizabeth warren surging everywhere. it occurred to me since you were here, you were on the hubbard law school faculty with elizabeth warren. >> yes. >> what do you make of it and what do you think of her chances? >> well, the thing to know about her time at harvard law school, she was one of the best teachers. she was a spectacular teacher because she can explain very complicated things to a wide range of people which serves her well now. she was also somebody who didn't play the academic game of law and economics theory. she did empirical work about bankruptcy. if i look back, she really was

focussed on ordinary people and what happened to them even in an environment that privileged, fancy models, economic models. so i see a lot that is helping her on the stump right now. >> after this ukraine business, and i should point out by the way there is no evidence that hunter biden broke any laws on the one hand and there is an argument that trump pressured a government on the other. she called for his impeachment. >> she has called for his impeachment early on. she said the constitution requires it. it is not about politics. it's about law. since then she doesn't talk about trump. she talks about her vision for the country. this incident meant she again said yes we need to impeach but quickly pivoted back. i think the democrats can take a lesson from that. she's doing well. she's talking about a positive vision for the country. next, the secretary general of the un on why he thinks the

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a book that you're ready to share with the world? get published now, call for your free publisher kit today! the world came out in force on friday in climate strikes. the protesters young and old were angry and determined to up end the status quo. on monday united nations secretary general will convene world leaders, business leaders, civic leaders to press for urgent action on what the un is calling the global climate emergency. noticeably absent will be donald trump. on tuesday the so-called high level general debate begins where world leaders, including this time donald trump, will offer a piece of their minds. all of that action will happen in the general assembly room

where i sat down with the secretary general. before his appointment, he served as prime minister of portugal and went on to be the un's high commissioner for refugees. >> mr. secretary general, thank you so much for doing this. >> it is a great pleasure to be here. >> people have been trying to get the world to take the climate crisis seriously for a while now. and honestly, it doesn't seem to really work. why do you think you will success when others have failed? >> because i think things are changing very quickly. climate change was perceived as a problem for the end of the century. tomorrow it is more of the realities proving climate change is a problem today. it is not only a problem of glasers melting or the bleaching of corals, it is becoming a serious problem with terrible storms being more intense, more frequent and devastating consequences. and we see public health

problems. according to the organization, the combination of climate change, we see heat waves killing people in northern europe. we see tropical diseases going north. more and more people feel that climate change is impacting on them today, and this is changing public opinions. you have seen the results of the european elections. how climate change all of a sudden became the issue. last time in the european elections was climate change. and i saw recently a poll here in the west that is overwhelming majority of american citizens have considered climate change is meaningful and that it requires the government's action. so i think things are changing. the business community is starting to work seriously. central banks are including

climate change risks. we see rating agencies including clie mall change risks. we see more and more big asset managers representing trillions of dollars divesting from fossil fuels. and it is clear for me that in a civil society, in the business community, in cities, in states and with the general public, there is more and more discussions this is a threat now. and obviously governments seem to follow public opinions as we all know. governments have to follow society. so i'm starting to see governments also understanding that they need to ktact. we are still not there. climate change is running faster than what we are. but for the first time i'm seeing more and more countries accepting they have to be carbon neutral in 2050. i have seen more giving full priority to renewable energy. not everywhere. we still have a very serious

cole probl coal problem, especially in asia. i'm hopeful we will be able to accelerate this because the next decade will be irreversible to have a catastrophic situation. >> you mentioned coal in asia. it seems to me that in some ways is the single biggest piece of this that doesn't seem to be going away. countries like india, even china, which is making some strides on green technology, they still use an enormous amount of coal to power their, you know, to produce electricity. and coal is very cheap and very dirty. do you get a sense in your conversations with asian leaders that there is any hope this will change. >> yes. we are discussing seriously that question. and i hope there is a change. the main reason why this will

change is because renewable energy is becoming cheaper than oil. you can have a turnkey power plant built, renewables, solar requires a little more planning, more capacity to build. >> and to store. let's be honest. until you can find a way to store it in the night -- >> but, again, if you have a combination. my country, portugal, has a high percentage of renewables still with some fossil fuels, but the combination makes -- if you have a distribution, you can leave with still a very meaningful increase of renewables without undermining that capacity. and on the other hand, the storage capacity is also improving technologically very quickly. we believe it will be a solution very soon. >> i saw a poll recently of 28 countries asking how many people

believed in climate change. the united states had the largest number of people who did not believe in climate change. the trump administration is moving in ways to undo some of the things that the united states has done, particularly on car efficiency standards. how much of a problem is it that the world's leading power has a government right now that is activity trying to reverse some of the issues. >> it is a problem. but governments have less and less influence in countries as a whole. what we see in the u.s., even if it's probably the country where you have a bigger number of people disbelieving, there is already a solid majority believing. it is in the u.s. that we see a very interesting development in the business community. it is in the u.s. that we see states. they will be present in our summits. the cities, they will be present in our summit. the companies and the public opinion more and more putting

pressure in relation to the needs for the u.s. also to give a positive contribution to climate action. so my belief is that all these things of course sometimes take time. the influence on public opinions in government take time. but i'm optimistic. >> mr. secretary general, pleasure to have you. thank you so much. >> pleasure. thank you very much, too. next on gps, we teach our kids not to trust strangers. don't talk to them. don't take candy from them. but once we become grown-ups, are we too trusting of strangers? when we come back, i'll talk to malcolm gladwell, who has a great new book on the subject. ♪ ♪ ♪

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malcolm was a relatively obscure writer for the new yorker when in the year 2000, he published his first book "the tipping point." since then all new york times best sellers, most of them at number one. now he has a fas quiting new book out called "talking to strangers," what we should know about the people we don't know. welcome, malcolm. >> thank you, fareed. >> the core of this book is about how we encounter people and whether we trust them and don't trust them. >> yes. it is -- it is about the strategies we use to make sense of strangers. you know, if you think about

this from a kind of evolutionary perspective, we evolve in intimate groups, family groups, ethnic groups where all the strategies we use to communicate with each other were carried out and honed on people who we had a great deal of history with and m more than history, intimacy with. it's only in the past couple of hundred years, a tiny fraction of our time on this planet, that we have been forced into regular communication with people outside those groups. and, so, we are taking strategies honed in one context and using them in another. the argument of the book is the strategies don't work or they don't work well when they're transferred from affinity groups and intimate groups to people who we -- with whom we have no history or nothing particularly

in common. >> and is the core issue that you are instinctively trusting of groups within your small family type setting and when you apply that to a particular group you can get food very often. >> this is an idea that comes from a really brilliant psychologist named tim levine at the university of alabama. he's trying to answer the question from an evolutionary standpoint why are we so easily fooled? doesn't make any sense. you would think that over time evolution would have favored people who were good at detecting lies because they would have an advantage. and actually, no, that's wrong, that people who have an advantage if an evolutionary standpoint trust implicitty because that allows you to have far more efficient communication. it allows you to build organization. it allows you to develop social rituals and functions and all

kinds of things. if i start from the premise that you, fareed, are who you say you are, we can quickly set in motion a chain of productive defends. if my thought is, i don't know, is your name really fareed. did you really go to yale? is this cnn? that just side tracks us. so we are -- >> were you going to say something? >> yeah. >> but presumably that trusting instinct has the danger that you get fooled. and is the argument that it's a price worth paying because every now and then you get food. but in the grand scheme of things by trusting people you get more done. >> exactly. that is the argument. that is levine's argument. that is my argument. i don't think we're aware of this trade off. i think every now and again we get in trouble when we're fooled and we think that being fooled is somehow a sign that we are negligent or incompetent. and we over react and we build

institutions that don't trust anymore. we give up on the thing that made us human. i have a chapter in my book on the penn state case. jerry san dusky was a football coach found to be a serial child molester. then prosecutors started going after people at the university and convicted the athletic director, vice president of finance and went after the president of the university saying that they were implicated in this because they should have known that he was -- they should have acted on these minor suspicions. they should have known he was a child molester. i feel that that's absolutely the wrong -- that was a travesty of justice to go after the administration. you can't ask people. we should be celebrating people in positions of authority for the fact they build trusting communities, and we should accept the fact that once in a generation one -- some university president or some

other institution head is going to be misled, but that's the -- do you really want the opposite? do you really want to have running your universities or your schools or your, you know, companies people who are so paranoid that they would suspect the worst of their employees? no. up next, more with malcolm gladwell. he will answer the question, should you have trusted adolph hitler? don't miss it when we come back. imagine a world where

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it was 81 years ago this month that britain's prime minister flew to munich where he signed a nonaggression pact with adolph hitler and along with the other major european powers accepted the munich agreement which allowed germany to take the territory. he declared he had secured peace for our time. we know how that ended. malcolm gladwell discusses this history in his new book "talking to strangers" what we should know about the people we don't know. he is here with me now. at core he signed the treaty he did, the munich accord, with hitler because he trusted him. he trusted that hitler would keep his word and that he was not going to take over anymore

of sec lcheck low slow vac wa. was he right to be trusting? >> he was wrong to base his judgment of adolph hitler on a face to face encounter. the paradox of chamberlain and hitler is the people who got hitler right were the ones that never met him. the people that got him wrong were the ones that did spend time with him. i'm curious how we could be led astray by face to face encounters. he should have stayed home and read "meine kamp." the problem with going to visit him is not that you can't gather information from a face to face encounter, but when you meet a miss mir rising and charismatic

man, you discount the really useful hard evidence about the man's stated intentions and previous behavior, right? people like churchill back home at england, churchill never met hitler. the only western leader to meet hitler, well, the french leader did, was william mckenzie king, the canadian prime minister who met him and loved him. he loved him. not a good idea to meet hitler. >> but let me ask a question about particular chamberlain because you do talk about this a little bit, which is was it also that he wanted to trust him? people forget about chamberlain this was a point at which world war i had just happened 15 years ago. europe was devastated. britain had been totally devastated. it was very weak. it didn't have the capacity to

rearm in a short period. so in a sense you were hoping that you could sign a peace deal so that you didn't have to go through the incredibly wrenching process of telling your country, having sent them out to war, we will have to do it again. and not to make the analogy too strongly but, you know, when you see president trump wanting to believe that kim jong-un is going to give him a deal, there is -- some trust seems to be born from the idea that you want this to be true. >> i think that's an interesting point, and i think that's completely consistent with levine's theory, which is why do we trust? we trust because legitimately that trust allows things to move a lot more smoothly than they would otherwise. so absolutely it is a part of the psychology and of george bush saying i looked putin in the eye and said this is a man -- i saw into his soul and said this is a man who can be

trusted. all of them are both -- they are demonstrating this downside to our central trusting nature. they are showing how bad we are at decoding face to face encounters, and they are also -- they are expressing this correct notion that if i trust you and it works out things are going to be so much easier. you're right. chamberlain desperately wants this thing to go away, right? he had never flown. he had never flown in a plane. you realize when you read that how kind of chamberlain is this very par roek y'all small town english figure. his interest is in domestic politics, but he's not -- this whole thing out there is confusing to him and

overwhelming. he just wants to sit down with hitler and say, can you sign a paper and have it go away? it's a kind of heart-breaking moment. >> do you get duped? >> of course. but i'm very trusting. i come from a very trusting family. i'm a high trust guy and not a paranoid suspicious person. >> malcolm gladwell, pleasure to have you. >> thank you, fareed. >> and we will be back. i'm embarrassed to even say i felt like i was going to spend my whole adult life paying this off thanks to sofi, i can see the light at the end of the tunnel as of 12pm today, i am debt free ♪ not owing anyone anything is the best feeling in the world, i cannot stop smiling about it ♪

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governments have struggled to find effective remedies for some unexpected problems caused by social media. it brings me to my question this week, what would a french bill fine social media companies for hosting on their platforms. was it vaping content? p por nothing gra fi, hateful content or ads aimed at children. i know many of you say malcolm gladwell books had a formula. i would say to you, it's a very good formula, and he executes it

so well, making this book readable and inciteful. it will make you think. the answer to my gps challenge this week is, c, a bill awaiting a vote in the upper house of france's parliament would fine social media platforms for failing to remove hateful content within 24 hours of a user flagging the post. the bill is intended to penalize companies for not preventing material like the christ church shooter's rampage live streamed on facebook as well as other forms of hate. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging?

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it's time for reliable sources. this is our weekly look at the story behind the story of how the media really works, how the news gets made and how all of us can help make it better. ahead this hour, two new york times reporters who were at the center of a controversy about brett kavanaugh will join me live. plus the impact of trump's anti-media hostility as it spreads throughout his party. and later something you will only see on "reliable sources." from a top editor in australia who spent time watching trump this week in the united states, she is reminding us these are not normal times, and we can say that again and ag