♪ ♪ i know ♪ i leave young thing alone ♪ but there ain't no sunshine when she's gone ♪ i'm michael smerconish. bill withers from 1971. in 2019, the only thing i know for sure, is none of us has any idea what's about to unfold. the range of intangibles grows. thursday revealed that william barr has opened a criminal investigation. while it gives john durham the power to subpoena witnesses, and call a grand jury, his inquiry is similar to, but distinct from t

the. >> the release of the ig report could be imminent. both could certainly have impact on the presidential election, soon to reach the voting stage. and of course there is impeachment. some reporters say it will be mid-november when the house inquiry moves to the step of public hearings. assuming the house votes to impeach president trump, then it moves to the senate. in the case of bill clinton, it was a month after the vote before the senate took up the matter. if that precedent applies here, we're close to holiday. it could mean they're engaged in a impeachment trial as people are casting the 2020 ballots. the it new hampshire primary is february 11th. so who benefits? i had a caller yesterday. it was ben from kansas city. ben said watching the situation

play out thus far, he's seen a number of reasons to vote against president trump, but none to impeach him. maybe that suggests politically speaking this process is good for democrats, because it allowing for the public airing of grievances against president trump, even if trump is left in office. on the other hand, if impeachment by the house ends with senate acquittal for the president, perhaps it emboldens him and gives him strength, as did the end of the mueller probe. go to my website, answer this survey question -- who benefits if impeachment extends into 2020? the president? or democrats? here to discuss is david axelrod, host of cnn's "axe

files." who gains? >> i want to reserve judgment until your viewers respond, because nobody rally knows the answer to that question. i think things have changed materially because of the ukraine issue on impeachment there's they charges against the president seem much more jermaine, much more important. they really related to 2020 election and what he was doing to try to influence the 2020 election. so i think that the notion that democrats are going to be punished for moving forward is less true than might have been the case had they moved forward on the basis of only the mueller probe. but, you know, no one really knows, michael. i do think the likely scenario here is there will be articles of impeachment voted by the house, and there will be a trial in the senate. it seems highly unlikely as we sit here with a president of 90% approval rating among at the

republicans, that he'll be convicted by the senate, something that's never happened in the history of this country. i think your scenario is likely that he'll be impeached, acquitted, and we'll move into an election campaign. how about from the perspective of a second-tier democratic presidential candidate? if i'm not biden, if i'm not bern bernie, if i'm not elizabeth warren, am i worried about this because there's not enough oxygen in the room for coverage that i desperately need to emerge. i'm sure you go through this with "axe files." i have a wealth of information, bud the impeachment is so dominating there's not enough time in the day. >> it's interesting. when you talk to actual voters, they have a lot of others concerns discussed, but this is an historic moment and it will

be covered as such. this had be like an eclipse, it will blot out the other political news, and it could freeze the advantages of the people who are at the top, but let me raise one other point. if there is a trial in the senate, you have six members of the united states senate running for president, including one of the front-runners. they will be required to sit silently in the senate and hear evidence throughout this process before the senate votes yea or nay on conviction, thookd happen in january leading up to the way caucuses. one of the reasons elizabeth warren is doing so well, she's run such an energetic campaign in places like iowa, with her face-to-face contact with voters. you could have six tied down, and that might be an advantage

for others who are not members of the united states senate. so there are all kinds of pe permutations, the impact of which we don't know. i wonder how this is playing in the rest of the country. the national surveys to me look like the same as the president's voters approval. new data in from wisconsin, if we can put that up on the screen, this comes from marquette's law school, should not be impeached, say wisconsin voters. 51% should be, 44%. i'm still not sure this is a winning issue for democrats. >> it may not be, but at some point the cynical, political move is to do not do anything in the face of an apparent transgressions of the sort we have seen. i think that once the president's call transcript or summary of his call with the

ukrainian leader was rea leased it was almost inevitable the house would have to take this up. if these things aren't worthy of examination, you should just strip impeachment out of the constitution, because there's probably nothing that one can do that would warrant it. i don't know what the political calculus is, but i think they probably had to move forward at this point. >> hey, david, thank you for your contribution. we all watch "the axe files." thanks, michael. make sure to you to s'more conitc -- smerconish.com, i want to know what you think. gary, i don't think this is an

option, but that caller -- so often callers resonates in my head. ben said he's seen a host of reasons why he doesn't want to vote for the president's reelection, but he's not sure if it rises to the level of impeachment. keep the social media reactions going. make sure you go to smerconish.com and answer the poll question. up ahead, when mick mulvaney seemed to embrace the existence of a quid pro quo and said people should get over it, he soon had to walk it back, was he offering up the best defense for the president. and thef the campaign that is exceeded expectations, but not among african-americans. a new focus group suggests the discomfort. most of downtown clearwater,

florida, has been quietly bought up by the church of scientology. many didn't realize it until a recent flip publication. what's their plan? we'll get into it i'm doing it a. the supplements... the veggies... the water. but i still have recurring constipation, belly pain, straining and bloating. my doctor said i could have a real medical condition called ibs-c. for my recurring constipation and belly pain from ibs-c... i said "yes" to linzess. linzess treats adults with ibs with constipation. linzess is not a laxative. it works differently. it helps relieve belly pain and lets you have more frequent and complete bowel movements. do not give to children less than six. and it should not be given to children six to less than 18. it may harm them. do not take linzess if you have a bowel blockage. get immediate help if you develop unusual or severe stomach pain. especially with bloody or black stools. the most common side effect is diarrhea. sometimes severe. if it's severe, stop taking linzess and call your doctor right away. other side effects include gas,

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. i've been saying for a while the underlying facts in this impeachment debate don't seem to be in doubt. the complaint was confirmed by the transcript of that phone call, and leaks of the depositions from the diplomatic corps, plus the released 15-page statement from ambassador taylor, they all seem to tell the same story, namely that zelensky's access to president trump and earmarked aid to utrain were both withheld, while president trump sought to have a investigation. is that a mistake? two weeks ago i hosted edward foley, a constitutional scholar and profess report at ohio state's university law school, where he directs the election law program. he also clerked for supreme court justice harry blackmon.

he penned -- is it ever okay for a he american president to ask a foreign country to investigate a political rival. when mick mulvaney, he seemed to embrace the strategy, but then reversed course. where does that leave president trump's legal defense? i wanted to check back in with professor foley. was mick mulvaney on to something when he faced the media and said what he said about a week ago? >> yes. good morning. i think the correct legal argument is to say, if the reason for investigating the bidens was a legitimate policy reason, there's nothing wrong with the quid pro quo, because it's pursuant to the legitimate policy. the whole question is, did the president have a valid justification for seeking the investigation?

in other words, it all goes to the president's motives. as you articulated, if he can convince he was acting to protect american taxpayers, american tax dollars, that his purpose was corruption in ukraine, not getting himself reelected -- some would say that's a tall order, but if he could convince, that would be a legal avenue? >> that's exactly right. he's entitled as president to ask foreign countries for investigation if it's in the national interest. so the question is, was it in the national interest to ask ukraine to investigate the bidens? if it was, a quid pro quo is okay, but if the president had a corrupt reason for seeking the investigation, then the quid pro quo is irrelevant, because the motive itself is corruption. even asking for the investigation would be wrongful. i wonder if the white house, if the president feels they can't pursue that strategy,

because so often he has said no quid pro quo. maybe he needs to come up with alternative verbiage to describe the same thing. >> i think that's a good point. when the white house sort of changes courses and offers a bunch of different defenses that are inconsistent with each other, that suggests that they're afraid of their own motive. i think if they had come out from the beginning and said we had a valid reason to investigate, even if you disagree with t. i think the issue is was it in good faith? i don't think a senate should remove a president from office if they're trying to pursue public policy in their good faith, sincere attempt to help the nation. if it's bad faith, just for personal electoral advantage, then that goes to the wrongfulness of it. it's all about why it was done a. >> i thought mick mulvaney was on the right path, but he did

say something that i thought was incorrect. let me roll that and ask professor ed foley to respond. >> i have news for everybody -- get over it. there will be political influence in foreign policy. elections have consequences. >> political influence in foreign policy i thought was a mistake. ridden another country of corruption before he give tlim moan, that's what he should have been saying. >> yes, i think that's right. it depends on whats mean by political. general politics may effect foreign policy calculations, but what would be wrongful, obviously, is to use foreign policy about i a president to seem a electoral advantage. that's the real concern. you don't want an incumbent manipulating the powers of the presidency to secure an unfair advantage against an opponent. again, that goes back to motive. if that's why the president was doing it, that's bad.

if the president was trying to do it to protect the country, then it would be okay. final question for set ed foley. if the president doesn't pursue the path of owning the quid pro quo, does he have any other legal defense to the underlying charges, that you see? >> well, yes, in the sense -- this may be more for the senate republicans than the president. i think there would be a principled position to take that even if the president acted improperly, the question is, what is the remedy? you can make the argument that removal from office is an excessive remedy for the wrongdoing, even assuming it was done for an electoral advantage. that would be wrongful, and many censuring the president would be appropriate, but if you remove him from office and take the next step for not letting him run for office, that is

affecting the election as well. so is it right to deprive one party of the candidate they would like in the 2020 election? professor, fang for coming back. >> thank you. what do we have, catherine? stop trying to sell this impeachment hoax. we have the transcript. it's all a show. let's hear about or oy wits and durham instead. they are about to expose some real government corruption you can't ignore. >> nancy, i'm not looking to ignore it. i had the open that we have no idea what's about to unfold. so whatever the ig and attorney general barr may reveal. these things are not mutually exclusive. theoretically it could be there was some, quote, deep state involvement in trying to spur the russian investigation. that does not take away from the

fact that the russians attacked our election process. here's the thing about me, and these air waves when i'm here. i want to know everything, bring it all to you. up ahead, though pete buttigieg is rising inned polls, he's finding it different to gain traction with african-american voters. might it be because he's gay? >> why am i not winning? when i talk, i make sense. is something wrong with me? more minerals enter deep into the enamel's surface. you have an opportunity to repair what's already been damaged-it's amazing.

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but the clintons, they've got to go away. i'm saying this a year out. they can't be at the convention. maybe waving or something. but are they the best candidates to take on president trump? this week "new york post," "new york times" "the hill" and other outlets pointed out that sentencements is rising that even the most ideological diverse field in history may not include the one candidate that can overcome the deep pockets of enthusiasm of the trump base.

as "the washington post" pointed out, quote -- party leaders and activists are citing weaknesses in all the leading contenders, including former vice president joe biden, who has been forced on the defensive about his family's ethics, performed haltingly in debate, and they also fret that the two other top-ranks candidates are too liberal to win a general election. other candidates have had moments to shine, but none yet have fully transformed that into anything approaches momentum. mitch landrieu was contemplating his own president atrun earlier this year. mayor, in that "new york times" story, you were quoted as saying, i can see it, feel it, hear it. >> i hear the gnashing of the teeth in the folks up in washington, d.c. worrying about

if any of these candidates is good enough, but this is the stuff every election cycle we have this meltdown. my personal opinion is we have a great field of candidates. they span the entire electoral spectrum. they're debating all the time. there will be ups and downs. my strong sense is the next president is in this field or in the white house right now. i don't think you're going to see a late entry unless something extraordinary happens. as you were saying in your earlier section, this entire impeachment process is very volatile, things could change dramatical dramatically, backup absent something we've never seen in the history of the country, it seems the field is set. >> is the concern, as articulated in "the washington post" piece that i quoted from, if joe should falter, there's a perception among something that bernie sanders and elizabeth

warn are just too far left to be elected. none of us ever say never, all things being equal, if the world occurs the way it always has, everybody's been waiting for joe biden for tall. he's had the kitchen sink thrown at him and he's still standing. elizabeth warren has had a stade,surge upwards. bernie is still in the race, and those guys are eaches off each other's plates, and the other tier candidates are having a hard time breaking through because of so much time spent on impeachment. i think it's a jump ball. all these candidates seem to be making their cases. money is always an important option. we'll see how it works out. that's what elections are about. what i seem to be hearing, mayor moisture, every four years, democrats in particular

go through this hand-wrnging process because it's the nature of the beast. here's what i want to ask. are there any tangible signs that you have seen where any of the individuals whose names have been mentioned in these pieces, whether it's hillary, whether it's michael bloomberg, john kerry, et cetera, that they're actually doing something tangible to try to get themselves into this? >> no. i don't see any evidence of that at all. what i said about what i see, feel, hear, i hear other people saying to them and other people, my gosh, would you think about it if something bad happens. that's absolutely happening, but i don't think any of the individuals named are actively engaging in trying to get themselves positioned so that if something bad happens, they're ready for jump in. if something catastrophic happens you could have a whole new ball game. there have been points in our history with open conventions, and very rarely, but all things

being equal, we need to settle in. these candidates are running strong races. my best sense at the moment is we're set and it's going to be one of the people already in the race. a final question, my survey question of of the day today asked people to imagine impeachment playing itself out against the backdrop of mince are americans it willy voting. does that help or hurt democrats? does that help or hurt the president? >> i saw your interview with david axelrod earlier. i think he's got it right. this is uncharted water, we don't know. i think impeachment is bad for the country as a general rule. we never really want to do it until it's a last resort. it seems to be the last resort. the taylor also information is very, very sobering. i think the house and senate ought to do that duty in a thoughtful way. i think we should trust the american people. i think they can figure it out,

make their own decision whether or not this is actually an offense that warrants some kind of conviction. even if there's not a conviction, they can make a decision about whether the information they learn about the president makes these more likely to vote about him or not. what i've hear is it makes it clear that the president and his team has used the power of the presidency -- i think the founding fathers thought that's out of bound and a very serious flag has to be thrown on that. what the congress is doing is going through the legal process, the house being ones that indict, the senate will have to try the case with a supreme court justice presiding over it. but this is clearly in the wheelhouse of what the foundings fathers thought was conduct that we all to call a question on. mayor, thanks for being here. thank you, michael. thanks for having me. this comes from facebook, i think -- there's a terrific

group of d candidates, michael, you're being picky. donna, i'm not being picky. the media outlets reported on angst they were heard from democratic fund-raisers and quote/unquote leaders, that they were worried they didn't have a winner on the stage. i want to remind you to answer the survey question i just put to mitch landrieu -- who benefits if impeachment extends into 2020? is that good for the democrats or the president? up ahead, those pete buttigieg is rising in the polls, he's find it difficult to gain traction with african-american voters. might it be because he's gay? clearwater, florida, is the head of the church of scientology. they have been scooping up the downtown properties, paying way above markets in some circumstances, so what's their plan? there's a power in listening;

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pete buttigieg has struggled to gain support among african american voters. the reason might be his sexuality, according to focus groups. over the summer among bleak democratic voters in south carolina, the focus groups found that, quote, being gay was a barrier for these voters,

particularly for the men who seemed deeply uncomfortable even discussing it. it was not necessarily a red line they would cross, but the preference is for his sexuality to not be front and center, and 51 support same-sex marriage, the lower support of any demographic group. another point made was it could impact his electability, even though many made it clear they personally didn't have a problem with the mayor's sexuality, they felt like others would have a problem with it and weaponize it. on one voter from the focus group said he was kerr vote fog buttigieg, while all but one said they were considering voting for former vice president joe biden. this hesitation is reflected in his poll numbers in south carolinas. in that early primary state buttigieg has 1% vote among black voters, a key voting bloc

if he's trying to win tell us a bit about the conversation up with mayor pete. >> good morning, michael. thank you so much for having me. mayor pete has -- weaver several conversations, and one on one conversations, in south carolina to meet with black voters. what has actually happened is he called me for advice, and i mean advice about how he was doing in south carolina, and how he could improve his situation. i said to him very clearly, i don't think people generally. i certainly do not have anything against mihm. i think that's frankly a nonissue. let me explains what i mean by that. it's not a secret. everybody knows that the mayor's sexual preference.

more importantly, it is clear that he is not ashamed of it in any way, nor should anyone be. we love who we love. that's a simple fact. the problem is -- the significant problem i think is more so that he is not known in the community. that's really what his problem is. what he needs to do is get in and talk to people, get behind closed doors and talk to people, answer questions, and for them to get to know him. he appears to me to be an honest man, a man of integrity. he's certainly qualified to be president of the united states, and i think he should be given every opportunity to do so, but those that complain -- >> of course he should. of course he should. that goes without saying. i'm trying to read the political tea leaves. when his own focus group says being gay was a barrier for these voters, especially the men, do you think that's

inaccurate? >> i'm going to say yes, but let me explain it. it's knack ralt that what people would do in the vote been booth is something else. i believe nationally african-americans would stand up for a candidate who is straightforward and authentic. i think that issue will not become as important. he has other issues that may present more difficulty for him, about you in terms of whether or not african-americans will vote for him, will not vote for him simply because he's gay, i think that's overblown. >> johnnie cordero, thank you for being here, sir. >> you are quite welcome. it's might pleasure indeed. more from social media. what do we have, catherine? >> smerconish, for decades black gay men have been spurned by their own communities. black people are not gay,

quote/unquote. neil, that's the issue that the data presents, right? both of focus group data and his standing at 1% of african-american, as compared to where he is in other states. i realize it's a game of inches, because the margin of errors on these polls is such, but it's the elephant in the room, brought forth by data from his own focus group. let me just say, let's hope people are not voting based on that issue as a preclusion. that wouldn't be right. still to come, the church of scientology has been secretly buying up most of clearwater, florida, sometimes paying up to four times the appraised value. so what is their plan? when you look at the world,

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under the radar, the town of clearwater, florida, where the church scientology's -- an investigation by "the tampa bay times" reveals in the past three

years the church and its members have spent a combined $103 million. they now control 185 properties over 101 acres downtown where the church's spiritual headquarters have been located. as the newspaper puts it, they now own most commercial properties on every block within walking distance of the waterfront, putting them clearly in color of the area's future. here is all that's left of what the church doesn't own. this is after a standoff about warring redevelopment projects. many of the properties weren't on the market, and the paper found that half the sales were for more than double the property's appraised value. in six cases buyers paid quadruple the plot's value. all of this took place without city leaders mostly realizing if, before the newspaper's reporting. joining mess is mike runner, raised a scientologist, served

as the international spokesperson for the church for 25 years until he left in 2007. he still lives near clearwater, florida. mr. rinder, do you think there's a plan or they just simply want control without knowing what they'll eventually do with the property. >> they announced in a magazine in 2000, that they wanted to make clearwater the first scientology city. there is a lot of writings by the founder the scientology, l. ron hubbard about the intend of scientology to basically take over society. he said in a very clear statement in 1960 -- and i'm -- the goal of the department, referring to what's called the

office of special affairs, is to bring the government and hostile philosophies or societies into a state of complete compliance with the goals of scientology. that is what's going on in clearwater. scientology is shrinking around the world. they are trying to build like a final bastion of scientology and taking and using the funds that they have tax free in many cases, to purchase property and create an environment in clearwater where they have a moat around their activities. they don't need the property for delivers services for their parishioners. >> if i'm a clearwater resident, should i be nervous about all of this, with all this control in

the hands of one group, but frankly as sees the harrison hotel, they're pretty good neighbors. they maintain their properties, and some of those areas could use some -- >> that could be true if the properties were accessible to the citizens. a regular citizen of clearwater cannot walk into a church of scientology facility. they have a few spots they like to promote heavily, but for the most part they are closed off. if a regular citizen of clearwater trying to enter, they will be told to leave. if they won't leave, they will call the police, but the real issue for the citizens of clearwater, michael, is that this is sucking huge amounts of revenue from the city. scientology has tax-exempt

status. the biggest loser in the world on scientology's tax exemption is the city of clearweight. scientology likes to say they generate the greatest tax revenues and hotel tax revenues in downtown clearwater. that's true. they own everybody there. so they are the only revenue generator. what's really missing is if they're paying 3.9 million in tax revenue to the city of clearwater, how much boo it be if they want tax exempt? five, ten times that. i get your point and i think it's an important one. for clarity, based on may reading of the "tampa bay times" those properties that are still held by llcs are still paying taxes, because they're not yet titled, if they ever get to that point, titled by the church.

this is important and i hope to get to revisit with you on a did i day, mr. rinder. >> thank you very much. michael. we have comments like this -- the church has ruin clearwater. they resemble zombies walking around as daywalkers. we need to remove them. >> listen, they have a right to acquire property through members of their, quote/unquote, congregation here. that's what went on. presumably wealthy followers bought i don't know how you could say you don't have the right to acquire property like that. interesting before investigating journalism by the tampa bay times people with none the wiser about this. i look at this story and i say this is all the more reason why there needs to be a continuation of investigative journalism. coming up the final results of

the survey question at smerconish.com. but i still have recurring constipation, belly pain, straining and bloating. my doctor said i could have a real medical condition called ibs-c. for my recurring constipation and belly pain from ibs-c... i said "yes" to linzess. linzess treats adults with ibs with constipation. linzess is not a laxative. it works differently. it helps relieve belly pain and lets you have more frequent and complete bowel movements. do not give to children less than six. and it should not be given to children six to less than 18. it may harm them. do not take linzess if you have a bowel blockage. get immediate help if you develop unusual or severe stomach pain. especially with bloody or black stools. the most common side effect is diarrhea. sometimes severe. if it's severe, stop taking linzess and call your doctor right away. other side effects include gas, stomach area pain and swelling.

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xfi advanced security. if it's connected, it's protected. call, click, or visit a store today. time to see how you responded to the survey question at smerconish.com. who benefits if impeachment extends into 2020? democrats or the president? here is the result.

59%, whoa, of 6,645 votes cast, say it will be the democrats. so we've got a 60/40 split in terms of who benefits politically speaking. here's what i think. i think it does extend into 2020 for sure if they don't get to the public portion of the hearings until mid november. what else came in from social media? what do we have? smerconish, a december senate impeachment trial is the perfect time of the year for the airing of grievances. festivus for the restofus. yes a seinfeld reference is always welcome on this program. perhaps the democrats will benefit because it will be a whole laundry list of things they're unhappy about. thanks for watching me. join me for my tour a week from tomorrow, norman, oklahoma and then eeri then erie, pennsylvania and then st. louis on presidents' day,

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