this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the show, general david petraeus. he led the cia and central command. now he talks to me about the death of al baghdadi, the future of terrorism and tensions in the middle east. also the house's impeachment inquiry into president trump is now formal and moving forward. let's remember how it all began, a whistleblower.

is that unamerican or a supreme act of patriotism? then most of the hong kong protestors are young. but i will introduce you to a 70-year-old protestor who is also a multi-millionaire media tycoon. state media calls him a traitor. i will talk to him about why he sides with the rebels. but first here's my take. the death of abu bakr al baghdadi is a real victory in the war against terrorists. the middle east remains a troubled region and baghdadi's death introduces a disengagement from the middle east, things could spiral downward. after the 9/11 attacks, the

world focused its gaze on the middle east and realized one fact, the region was almost unique in having made no significant political, economic or social progress in decades. across the globe, communist regimes had collapsed, military had disappeared and economic growth had transformed developing countries. but in the middle east, time had stood still. even moved backwards on some measures. this stagnation, many believed, was the atmosphere in which islamic extremism and terrorism were able to grow and spread. in 2002, the u.n. released a report on arab development that laid bare the profound challenges of the region, it spoke of the lack of political opportunity and social progress. in the following years, gains were made in several areas, like life expectancy, literacy, female empowerment.

but since 2010, nearly all arab countries have slowed or reversed their average annual human development advances. this, despite the fact that the arab spring protests of 2011 highlighted the need for greater reforms. why has this happened? well, partly because the arab spring was largely a failure. egypt saw the return of repressive rule, syria experienced a civil war and the bloody resurgence of the assad regime, libya has been torn p t part. the region continues to face daunting challenges. the demographics remain grim. the middle east has the highest youth unemployment in the world. the economic model remains highly inefficient, expensive and unsustainable, with governments employing a huge number of people and providing massive subsidies for food and

emergency. the hope behind the u.n.'s 2002 report was that economic and social reforms would be easier if these countries opened themselves up politically. political openness would reduce popular elected leaders who would drain support away for islamic extremism. this was the appealing idea behind george w. bush's freedom agenda, which was rooted in some serious thinking about the region. but little of it worked. political openings mostly led to in surgeonsies. perhaps the most important result of the enduring turmoil in the arab world has been america's withdraw from the region, starting from the second term of the bush administration through barack obama's presidency, and now into donald trump's, america has gotten fed up with the middle east. when trump says that he wants to end the forever wars, large parts of the public agree. so we see an emerging post-american middle east with

various regional powers jockeying for influence, mainly saudi arabia and iran, and others like turkey and israel pushing their own interests. these are unchartered waters in a time of great upheaval. the islamic state has been decapitated and is scattered for now, but the demons that fuel such terror, stagnation, repression, despair, continue to haunt today's arab world. for more read my washington post column this week and let's get started. last saturday cornered in a tunnel by u.s. special forces, the isis leader abu bakr al baghdadi blew himself up by detonating a suicide vest. in an address to the nation the next morning, president trump announced that the world's number one terrorist was dead. for more on the death of al

baghdadi and what it means for the future of terrorism, i'm joined by general david petraeus. he was the commander of sent-com later served as tb director of the cia. good to have you on. >> >> good to be here, fareed. thanks. >> tell me what you think this means for the future of isis. i ask because you destroyed al qaeda in iraq, and of course it came back in the form of isis when american troops left. when you look at the situation today with isis, decapitated, it's lost its territory, sources of revenue, a fighter scattered in the fields. how likely or unlikely is it that something like isis could reconstitute itself? >> there are still some 20 or so thousand islamic states fighters in that broad area, keeping in mind the caliphate was the size of indiana. certainly the leader that led

the islamic state to that achievement, which is something beyond even what osama bin laden was able to accomplish with al qaeda, that leader, abu bakr al baghdadi, is gone, having suffered a series of reverses one after another, some of his successors killed as well, although one has been announced. a question of how capable that individual will be, how much of the organizational structure is left so that he can reassemble, try to get the islamic state back to some form of insurgency and terrorist groups, which, indeed, some of the elements there are in the process of doing. then the question is how decentralized will the organization be, because it has affiliates all around the world at this point in time. in each case where you find these affiliates have been established is a very significant amount of discontent, again, often

alienation, grievances, and that is what has enabled extremist groups to establish themselves, to take advantage of ungoverned situations in the muslim world, and in some cases, even inadequately governed spaces. so there is a lot riding on what happens now in syria, especially as we're now reintroducing troops, having suddenly pulled them out a couple weeks ago. that will enable us to salvage some of what i think we achieved, many hard years and over 10,000 syrian-kurd partners killed in the process of defeat ing them as an army and taking away the caliphate. basic service restoration, reconstruction of the war damage, all of that. >> what did you make of the president's announcement of the death of -- the killing of al

baghdadi? i just wonder as a cia director, as a former commander, what was your opinion of the details that he revealed? >> this is consistent with what we've seen from the president. he enjoys impromptu press conferences, so you have the initial announcement similar to what president obama did in the wake of the killing of osama bin laden back in 2011. in this case, of course, the announcement was followed by a press conference. i'm sure there were individuals in the pentagon or elsewhere, perhaps, in the white house thinking to themselves, drop the mic, mr. president. but, again, this is customary, and i don't think at the end of the day that there were any truly big revelations that came out of that. and, indeed, the pentagon and the white house have actually declassified some additional details.

>> as somebody who had to make alliances with locals in the way that the united states did with the syrian kurds, how bad do you think it was to betray them as we just did? >> well, i think this is very serious. in fact, i agreed very strongly with majority leader mcconnell's assessment that this was a grave strategic mistake, withdrawing u.s. forces, and of course doing it in such a sudden fashion without any clear plan, without having notified our other coalition partners, france and the u.k., without a conversation with the syrian kurds, again, just literally throwing everything that's sensitive on vehicles and so forth, and then withdrawing rapidly and bombing our bases once we're out of there to deny what might be left to the syrians or russians or iranians to whom we gave a degree of victory in this case.

certainly abandoning those who took over 10,000 losses in the course of defeating the islamic state and eliminating the caliphate. that's quite a serious blow, and i think we're going to have to work hard to reestablish our credibility, not just there and not just with them, but really around the world. when these actions take place, if you have a red line that doesn't turn out to be a red line, if your rhetoric gets out ahead of what you're actually willing to do, over time that obviously undermines your credibility. and that's a very serious issue. because if you think about deterrence, if you're trying to deter adversaries, deterrence is a function of an adversary's perception not just of your capabilities but also of your willingness to use those capabilities. so, again, this undermines that, it undermines confidence in the united states. stay with us. when we come back, i will ask

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and we are back with general david petraeus, the former commander and cia director. general, what do you make of president trump's focus on the oil that is in syria and talking about how the united states, we are going to keep the oil in

some way. there are people who have said that's not only a violation of international law, it may even be a war crime. what's your reaction? >> well, there has always been a certain affinity the president has had for oil resources. you'll recall previously he said we should have kept the oil in iraq and so forth. frankly, i think that those who were contributing to the policy decision here were probably just happy to have any argument that would enable keeping forces in northeastern syria, supporting our syrian kurd partners and others on the ground, being able to see to the needs of what now are already hundreds of thousands of refugees, the families of those syrian kurds who have been displaced from the border by the turkish buffer zone that's been created. >> but does that mean you think

that the united states should keep the oil in syria? >> well, no, i don't think long term. i think -- we are not even going to keep it now. what we are going to do is enable our syrian kurd partners to retain it. that is what's been going on and this will allow the status quo to continue and to thereby deny the revenue from that, either to or to the regime forces that might try to take control of that, in which says the occurred would lose a very important bargaining chip. >> when you look at the situation in syria, the president says, look, we don't need to be in all these places. we've been there for too long. and in a sense, the al baghdadi raid, presumably he would regard that as a success of a kind of counterterrorism policy that says we can use special forces

to go in, beat up the bad guys, but we don't have to be in there providing order and such. what do you think of that argument? >> well, i think among the many lessons that we've learned in the era of the post-9/11, you can't fight them just with special operations. you do need to do delta raids especially against high-value targets, but that's not enough. that can achieve a security improvement, but what solidifies that security foundation is all the other activities that are necessary, the restoration of basic services, the reestablishment of grievance mechanisms, markets, schools, health clinics, all of this. now, that's not an argument we

should do all of that, in fact, i think what we have been able to achieve in iraq starting with the previous administration and building on it quite effectively in this administration is the ability to defeat a very significant element, the islamic state, but to do it with host nation forces doing the fighting on the front lines. we have seen what happens if you withdraw from these locations before you're absolutely certain that the conditions will allow that. you can leave the movie theatre, but the movie continues to run >> you've talked about this as a long marathon, this war against islamic extremism, and they don't want to be part of it. they just feel as though this is getting us into other people's wars, other people's civil wars, other people's feuds. the president, i think, reflects

that sense of frustration and weariness. >> certainly. uh-huh. >> what's your answer to that? >> few people understand more -- well, i think few people understand more than those who have actually been part of these wars, that have been soldiering in them the desire to end endless wars and end our involvement in them. but what we have seen is that if we end our involvement prematurely, then we are going to end up being back in there, and it may be with a larger force than would have been necessary had we just maintained stability. let's keep in mind, in syria, we were down to somewhere under 1500 forces in the northeast and also at that other location, the key border crossing in iraq and syria called al-tanf. that is a very modest commitment. yes, special forces which are

high demand, lower density, are part of that, but i think we have reduced so substantially what it is that we're doing that this is actually sustainable, and of course it takes place in a context. i am keenly aware that we have to shift focus to recognize the return of great power rivalries, to focus on the resurgent russia, the rise of china, hoping that we can have mutually beneficial relationships, but knowing that we need to have the capabilities to deter any would-be adventurism from either camp. this is i think affordable for the world's greatest superpower, keeping it to the absolute minimum. keep in mind we had 65,000 american men and women on the ground during the surge, 100,000 during the surge in afghanistan plus another 150,000 coalition forces. in afghanistan now, the u.s. component is less than 8500, and

in iraq it's under 5,000 or so as well. continue to reduce it, continue to reduce the cost in blood and treasure, but recognize, regrettably that we do have to sustain our involvement in these places. >> david petraeus, good to have you on, as always. >> thank you, fareed. next on gps, we'll turn to impeachment. the inquiry was initiated because of a complaint filed by a whistle-blower. when we come back, we'll tell you about the history of whistle-blowers. yeah, that's half the fun of a new house.

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oxford defines a whistleblower as a person who informs on a person or organization regarded as engaging in an unlawful or immoral activity. the entire impeachment process, of course, started with such a

whistle-blower who filed the complaint on august 12 with the inspector general of the intelligence community. two books have been published in recent weeks about whistleblowers. i'm lucky enough today to be joined by the authors of both books. allison stanger's new book is called "whistleblowers." and tom mueller wrote "crisis of conscience." whistle-blower in an age of fraud. allison, let me start out with you. you claim that whistleblowing is as old as the public. the first weiss weiss protection law, which was >> the world's first was passed in congress in 1778. that was before the ratification of the constitution, and it was passed because of a man by the name of essex hopkins. hopkins was chief of the navy, and he was removed from office for abusing his office for

private gain. he was taking the u.s. navy other places, not the places general washington wanted him to engage the british, and instead of going to chesapeake bay, he would go, for example, to the bahamas, and this served his commercial interests, but it certainly didn't serve the war effort and it certainly didn't serve the cause of the newly united states. so it was certainly about the abuse of power and corruption in public servants. >> tom, you point out that these whistleblowers are often acting in circumstances that they know they could pay a very heavy price. they're facing a lot of pressure not to blow the whistle. you have this incredible case in pennsylvania around pharmaceuticals. explain that story. >> right, alan jones was an inspector in the inspector general's office in the state of pennsylvania, and his job was to inspect potential corporate fraud.

and he discovered a multi-billion-dollar fraud scheme by johnson & johnson and other pharmaceutical companies and was promptly forced by his own department, his own government office, to back off because they were too politically -- according to his bosses, too politically connected. so he then had to file a whistleblower suit, not only first amendment whistleblower suit against his own office but then take on the pharmaceutical companies in a false claims act case. so very complicated. but in both cases, this individual had to take his career in his hands in order to do the right thing. the system itself was not self-correcting. >> huh. allison, you point out in some cases the most famous whistleblower is danny ellsberg who released the pentagon papers.

after 9/11, there has been a chilling effect out of all the laws that came out, and it actually for a while stopped whistle-blower. >> yes, the whistleblower enhancement act protects all employers from retaliation with the exception of national security whistleblowers. so anything involving national security, which you know well involves keeping secrets, will require the whistleblower to break the law, to reveal secrets in order to maintain the rule of some higher principle. that applies to snowden and that applies to the current intelligence community weiss weiss weiss weiss. whistleblower. it's really a miracle in my view that this complaint has even seen the light of day. everything is stacked against it because the intelligence community doesn't leak. they're trained to keep secrets. they're trained to serve their country, not a particular party. they've been essentially blowing the whistle on donald trump

since he assumed office, in my view, for legitimate reasons. >> tom, you also think this current whistleblower is actually -- or the whistleblowing that's taking place is done fairly shrewdly given the constraints they have to operate in. >> that's right, i think they understand this is a body of whistleblowers, not just one, and the smart thing to do is to gradually trickle out information, not give it in a body to be attacked together, but allow trump and his allies to shoot, basically, all of their ammunition at the first two and then simply have nothing to answer to the others or have the others rebut. that said, if the president of the united states suggests that you might be someone who needed to be rubbed out, that's never good. >> allison, finally, there are people, the president and

others who cast doubt on the patriotism of these whistle-blowers, there's something un-american about what they're doing. what do you say to that? >> there couldn't be anything more american. they keep our officials honest. it goes back to 1778. it's important to realize that this is an american issue. if you look at the national security, the intelligence community, they're doing something since trump's election that they don't normally do. no previous president has been considered a national security threat by his own intelligence community. and we certainly haven't seen this sort of blatant corruption, the use of the office of the president for private gain, but i think americans know that obviously americans should elect their officials, not foreigners, and that public servants should serve the american people and not their own pocketbook.

so i'm hopeful that in the days ahead, we'll see some clarity on these issues. >> allison stanger, tom mueller, happy to have you on. >> nice to be here, fareed. >> thank you, fareed. what do you get when you mix right wing populism with left wing economics? election success, it turns out, in many parts of the world. i'll tell you about this odd recipe when we come back. where others see chaos, we see patterns. ♪ connections. relationships. ♪ when you use location technology,

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now for the "what in the world" segment. if you're trying to understand the rise of populus right, in poland the law and justice party just won a second term. law and justice, or beast, as it's known in poland, has all the hallmarks of the new right. they attack liberal values, democratic institutions, they claim to be speaking for ordinary polls. but on the economy, the right wing piece is embracing the left. the biggest policy triumph for its government's last term was the family 500-plus program. it gives families cash handouts of about $130 per child per month regardless of income. the atlantic compared it to a scheme similar to the one andrew yang has been promoting in the united states, universal basic income. cash handouts to families are common in western europe, but this is an unusually large boost in social spending for eastern

europe. and it's widely credited with helping the party win at the polls. now, pro-family programs have a certain resonance in eastern europe where immigration and a falling birth rate have resulted in population declines. but this is bigger than demographics. the law and justice party has in general expanded the welfare state and raised spending on the poor. as "the times" reports, the government cited it would nearly double its minimum wage. it raised pension payments and eliminated taxes for people under 26. kachinsky, the party's leader, said he drew inspiration from the kmen french economist. the german president crippled

the judiciary and the press. but on economics, he's offered young couples interest-free loans. he's exempted women of paying income tax for life if they have four children. and pledged to expand nursery school capacity. he's expanded work for welfare programs. and look further back to his first term in office. after the financial crisis, he did something few dared to do. he bailed out borrowers at the expense of the banks, by offering extremely favorable rates on mortgages and forcing banks to absorb most of the difference. as the political scientist mitchell orenstein told the gps, this shift is particularly notable in eastern europe because these governments fully embrace free market ortho docks after the fall of the iron curtain. distribution, the theory went, could happen only after privatization and growth. but when the financial crisis hit, that free market orthodoxy came into question.

and it was the right, not the left, which took advantage of the new moment. now, this combination may not be foolproof. his policies didn't save his party from losing the elections in budapest and ten other cities last month, but on the national level, pro poor economics along with nationalism can lead to an election windfall. not just for europe. look at india. that leader has presided over generous subsidy and work programs, while also promoting his hindu nationalist agenda. in may he won his election handily. it seems the new right has adopted the policies of the old left. next on "gps," it has been seven months since the protests began that have rocked hong kong my next guest is a septuagenarian and a

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the protests in hong kong have now been going on for months. it may be hard to remember at this point, but the issue that sparked the protests was a controversial bill that would have allowed extradition from hong kong to mainland china. last week hong kong's government finally withdrew the bill

altogether. i wanted to bring in a man with a unique perspective on the unrest in that part of the world. jimmy lai is a hong kong protestor, but he doesn't fit the bill of the average person on the streets. you see, he's a multimedia millionaire tycoon. he fled mainland china at the age of 12 and after toiling for years in a factory, he started a successful garment business. jimmy lai, welcome to the show. >> thank you, fareed. >> let me ask you where you think things are now. the protests continue. beijing has not -- contrary to what a lot of people have thought, beijing has not cracked down. have not sent troops in. what is the game plan, do you

think, from the point of view of beijing? >> i'm sure that beijing is very cautious in sending in troops just because china is now facing economic problems that they never did before. if you take just agricultural production, the productivity is declined just because the pollution of their environment. half the drinking water is not drinkable. more than 60% of the water for agricultural irrigation is toxic. >> they're facing problems at home and they don't want to take on -- >> exactly, and also they're facing the trade war with the u.s. they're having an inflation in agricultural product. so they're facing big problems. if they send p.o.a. in, they risk world ascension.

at this time, i don't think they would risk that. >> but they seem to be also banking on wearing out the hong kong protestors, but the protests keep going. what do you think? are people getting tired? are businessmen in hong kong saying, enough. we need to get back to work. >> well, yes. enough for the businesspeople, but it's not for hong kong people. hong kong people, what is enough is when we get to the point of suffrage. because this is the only assurance that our freedom, rule of law, the way of life, human rights, all that will not be constantly encroached by china. and after four and a half months resistance, we know for sure this is a fight of the last straw. we have to persist. and hong kong people have never been that united and determined. >> so you think that nothing less than universal suffrage will end this?

>> yes. yes. >> a lot of people look at hong kong and say, these are a lot of people who care about money. the city runs on money. this seems all about politics. >> well, yes, hong kong people -- especially young people, life is not easy. the prices are really very high because just a lot of rich people in china come to hong kong to buy real estate. to stay in hong kong, they want the value of freedom, and they don't think we need the value of freedom. they just take the whole thing as an economic problem. no, it's not. of the five demands, none of them is about economic. it's about freedom. it's about human dignity. it's about hong kong people keeping the way of life that we used to. >> let me ask you a personal

question. you're a very rich man. you have a very comfortable life. you could very easily go on -- this is hurting your business, beijing has started embargoing it, you're losing ads. why are you doing this? >> if there is no freedom, what good is money? i think you have to live a life of meaning, and i found taking responsibility to fight for freedom is meaningful for me, personally. >> do you want this to be your legacy? >> i'm not thinking about legacy, i'm just thinking that doing the right thing and not thinking about the consequences. >> jimmy lai, pleasure to have you on, sir. >> thank you.

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and american politicians aren't the only ones gearing up. already hackers and trolls from around the world are seeking to interfere in the 2020 election. last week facebook announced that it had shut down networks of coordinated, inauthentic behavior, targeting american voters and social media users in africa and alaska. my question. from which nation did the majority fortunate disinformation campaign networks remoovrd by facebook last week originate? my book this week is a movie.

it is machiavelli. my answer is c, iran. according to facebook, the iranian trolls used the tried and true network masquerading as hopefuls trying to manipulate everything from "black lives matter" to the russians. but they were shut down by the social media giant last week. facebook warned that the russia campaign had the hallmarks of a resourced operation using more sophisticated security tactics as they posted, liked and commented their way around the internet. doing sor, the russians got a whopping 250,000 followers on 50 instagram profiles. russia is doubling down on its

cyber capabilities and on its ability to conceal what it is doing. recently american and british investigators revealed a complicated plot where russian hackers broke into an iranian cyber spying operation called oil rig, hiding within oil rig's own structure, russians could hack their own data, expand their own reach and deliver m malware to unsuspecting victims across 35 countries all while masquerading as original a rairn hackers. russia reaches are expanding with 2020 just around the corner. thank you for being a part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. we're all here for you. all: all day, all night. (dramatic music)

great job speaking calmly and clearly everyone. that's how you put a customer at ease. hey, did anyone else hear weird voices while they were in the corn? no. no. me either. whispering voice: jamie. what?

ithere's my career...'s more to me than hiv. my cause... and creating my dream home. i'm a work in progress. so much goes into who i am. hiv medicine is one part of it. prescription dovato is for adults who are starting hiv-1 treatment and who aren't resistant to either of the medicines dolutegravir or lamivudine. dovato has 2 medicines in 1 pill to help you reach and then stay undetectable. so your hiv can be controlled with fewer medicines while taking dovato. you can take dovato anytime of day with food or without. don't take dovato if you're allergic to any of its ingredients or if you take dofetilide. if you have hepatitis b, it can change during treatment with dovato and become harder to treat. your hepatitis b may get worse or become life-threatening if you stop taking dovato. so do not stop dovato without talking to your doctor.

serious side effects can occur, including allergic reactions, liver problems, and liver failure. life-threatening side effects include lactic acid buildup and severe liver problems. if you have a rash and other symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking dovato and get medical help right away. tell your doctor if you have kidney or liver problems, including hepatitis b or c. don't use dovato if you plan to become pregnant or during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy since one of its ingredients may harm your unborn baby. your doctor should do a pregnancy test before starting dovato. use effective birth control while taking dovato. the most common side effects are headache, diarrhea, nausea, trouble sleeping, and tiredness. so much goes into who i am and hope to be. ask your doctor if starting hiv treatment with dovato is right for you.

hello, everyone, and thank you for joining me this sunday. i'm fredricka whitfield. president trump is wanting to reveal the identity of the whistleblower. this is the one who had knowledge of ukraine's call. president trump says he may know who the whistleblower is. >> the whistleblower should be revealed, because the whistleblower made false stories. some people would call it a fraud. i won't go that far, but when i read it closely, i probably