this is "gps, the global public square." welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the show. >> oh, i think we have a vote coming in. >> a remarkab ablable day in am >> article one is adopted. >> for only the third time in history, a president of the united states is impeached. how does this one differ? and how does it look to his

story? and iran has weathered what some has weathered some of the most significant protests since 1979, but have the protesters been silenced for good? i will talk to the iranian activists in exile. also, a good news story for this holiday season. this husband and wife won the nobel prize in economics together. and their ground breaking work is on alleviating poverty. will extreme poverty soon become a thing of the past? stay tuned. but first here's my take. impeachment is big news, justifiably so, but the battle cries around it have drowned out another momentous event with important lessons for the 2020

campaign. last week's seismic british elections. the simplest way to understand the u.k. results is to look at one fact. even though the conservatives ended up with their largest majority in parliament since 1987, the overall vote for the party went up from 2017 by just 1 percentage point. the labor party, however, dropped from 2017 by eight points, a collapse of historic proportions. labor ended up with its fewest seats in 84 years. there are several reasons for labor's collapse. the party was led by jeremy corbyn who is an uncharismatic radical. his opponent, boris johnson, is colorful and lively having been a popular mayor of london. johnson's victory was bathed by more than personality. it had to do with two strategic

missions that were risky and paid off. he clarified the election making it a referendum on brexit. he pushed them and said to the public, vote tory to get brexit done. three words. labor's position on brexit was by contrast totally muddled. in politics a simple clear message will always trump a complex, merky one. remember build the wall, three words. johnson's second strategic mission was to shift the conservative party's positions on economic policy. under cameron and may, they were cutting spending through a sweeping set of austerity measures. johnson junked all of that saying he would increase spending from national health service to schools to bottles. that worked spectacularly. they won over large areas of the

working class. in 2016 trump similarly campaigned as an economic populus. he was able to gain working class votes in democratic states while keeping traditional republican voters with him. the trump republican party is a coalition of free market types and working class populus. there's a tension between the two groups but polarization and party loyalty are so great that there appears to be little danger that traditional republicans will abandon trump for a democrat. the democrats have a larger base than brittain's labor party but because of the electoral college they face the same vulnerability. losing socially conservative working class voters in a number of crucial states. they're doing little to address this vulnerability. democrats keep arguing over a policy lurching ever left ward.

they're allowing people to buy medicare, taxing the rich, increasing the minimum wage. the party's achilles heel is immigration. half of the democratic candidates have said they want to decriminalize illegal border crossings and even more want to give undocumented immigrants free health care. large majorities of the country disagree with these policies and you can expect trump to turn this into a wedge issue. the irony is that the republican party like the torreys are a larger party and the democrats are ideologically narrow on the issues that might well define the 2020 election. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column this week and let's get started.

february 24th, 1868, andrew johnson. december 19th, 1998, bill clinton. december 18th, 2019, donald trump. these are the three impeachments of american presidents. i wanted to put this into historical context. joining me are historians. gordon-reed is an author. tim maselli is with the richard nixon presidential library. jon meacham is a contributor,

author and higgs tostorian. he wrote "the impeachment report." tim, when we look at impeachment, we sort of think it doesn't seem to be working right now. when you go back and think about, you know, hillary clinton or andrew johnson, it's always seemed messy, broken , why? >> it's very hard to impeach a president. the gold standard is what happened in 1974. there you had clear and convincing evidence of the president's involvement in a criminal conspiracy. in addition, you had a lot of evidence of the president's abuse of power and even then the republican leadership was putting pressure on republicans on the judiciary committee to not vote against the president. one of the differences today is that in addition to those historical obstacles to impeachment and remofl, we have for the first time in history two parties sharing control of

congress. never happened before in an impeachment crisis. in every previous impeachment crisis the same party has controlled both houses of congress. that's one reason why we've never seen the house retain the articles to determine the rules for the trial. >> in nicks son both houses were democratic. in clinton both were republican. >> and johnson both were -- >> national union, however you want to describe it. this kind of political games manship has never happened before. as americans we like to play political games. that's something new. that's a wrinkle to add even more room for politics in this case. >> annette, when we look at the andrew johnson trial, i mean, andrew johnson was a terrible guy. >> yes. >> vicious, racist, but what he was impeached for is now

generally seen as not right. he was impeached for firing his own secretary of defense which is something presidents are allowed to do. was this a process gone awry? >> i don't think it was a mistake. we look at the tenure of office act. but there were other things. he was a recalcitrant president. he was in fact not executing the laws. he was, as you said, a vicious racist. his whole purpose was to make -- he said this is a white man's government and as long as i'm president, it's going to be a white man's government. all the things he was doing in opposition to the so-called radical republicans was in service of that ideal. this was eventually declared unconstitutional but it was a law at the time and he broke it. it was the ultimate partisan kind of thing. from the very beginning alexander hamilton suggested or

knew this would be a political process and partisanship would enter into it. the hope was that the senate, the body that was supposed to be the higher chamber, would be measured and, you know, sort of measured and actually have the country's best interests at heart in dealing with the matter. so the johnson one was a tricky one. after civil war, after the death of a president it was a unique kind of time. separates it from where we are now. >> jon meacham, when we look at it now, it seems obvious that we're going to have parties that are going to line up with their president or against, but in a way impeachment was set up by founders who didn't think we would have a party system. you wrote the biography of jefferson when the party system begins to emerge. does having political parties make a kind of impartial impeachment process impossible? >> well, it's never going to be

impartial because it's a human undertaking. the founders were trying to create a newtonian sphere. there would be a harmonious hole. this is darwinian. you hope we evolve. you hope we progress. jury is still out on that. but it's a -- the tension within the republican, lower case r, structure was present from the beginning. madison, jefferson, hamilton i don't think would have foreseen the absolute nature of this party structure but they fully understood faction. they fully understood there would be coalitions of interest. what they hoped for by dividing sovereignty so definitively,

we're seeing it now, we borrowed that from an aristotelian line of thought. madison had made a study of montesque and later at montpelier in the months before the constitutional convention. what they saw was we had to make things incredibly difficult to do because we were as human beings more likely to do the wrong thing than the right thing and the fruits of that system, however frustrating they might be, is something we're seeing right now. >> tim, you mentioned something that basically most of the processes have been seen as tarnished except nixons, but you pointed out clear and convincing evidence is what did it until the tapes. until people knew that they had on record the voice of the president actually speaking of a criminal conspiracy. republicans were not willing to

vote against nixon. really the tapes that did it. >> it's -- actually, without the tapes you wouldn't even have had an impeachment process. one thing to keep in mind is that people talked about impeachment after the senate watergate hearings. by the way, to remind everyone, the senate watergate hearings gave you john dean's testimony. the president learned about conspiracy. you learned that the president had a taping system. you learned more about the dirty tricks. you learned there was a stench rising from the administration. even after that democrats didn't want -- the leadership didn't want an impeachment process. it's when nixon fires the special prosecutor to prevent access to his tapes that not only democrats but republicans say, we at least have to start an inquiry, impeachment inquiry. i believe without the tapes richard nixon, a, would never have been impeached. the process wouldn't have started and, b, he wouldn't have left office before the end of

his term. that sets a very high bar for how you impeach someone using a broad theory of impeachment. >> when we come back, more on impeachment. jon meacham has some startling statistics on how it isn't that risky to be courageous. ♪ ♪

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meacham. annette, when you look at impeachment today, does it seem to you that it is deeply more partisan than before, that there is something special and different this sniem. >> well, other than what you've said before about the fact that you have two different parties who are involved in this process. the partisan -- johnson time was incredibly partisan. we had just come off the civil war. 700,000 people had died in a battle about a vision of america so this was a very, very partisan time. people saw this as a matter of life and death to figure out how you were going to bring african-americans into citizenship. it was a very, very partisan time. this is different because of social media, the strong development of a party system that takes in people through social media. it's just a different -- the technology of it all is different. i think the passions and the partisanship were there in all of the months that we've seen. >> i'm often stlauk how some of the heroes of the watergate

hearing, sam irwin, they were all southern segregationists. >> absolutely. they've become heroes. i was down in texas as a kid watching them as a kid and that voice and that accent signaled one thing. we were kind of on his side. he actually was a person who saw himself as upholding the constitution despite whatever he felt about nixon, he believed in the process. >> jon, you had something interesting you were telling me about the idea of republicans, for example, finding the courage to put country above party that historically when people have -- when senators, congressmen have put country above party they have not paid the political price that many people fear they would. >> it's remarkable when you look at the data on the high profile votes really beginning in the modern era, which i would date from '64 and '65, the civil

rights act, the voting rights act, the immigration of 1965. if you look at republicans who voted for medicare and medicaid, if you look at southern democrats like in that ethos from north carolina. if you look at the southern democrats that voted for the civil rights act you see that those who sought re-election tend to win almost universally and then you would say, well, but that means they preemptively retire or there's some other factor. actually, no. the political science on this is pretty clear. the republicans who voted against the iraq war resolution in 2003-2004, 2002-2003 all won re-election. republicans who voted for the assault weapons ban, who voted for the brady bill won re-election. there's a piece of conventional

wisdom was if you cross the aisle you're politically dead. one of the things we have to look at is are there facts to support that? i've never run for office or faced voters so it's easy for me to say. when you look back on the people who decided to defy their party's basic conventional wisdom, you find it their political futures were not automatically pushed to the side. >> one of the things that i wonder, tim, about all of this, you know, you have this extraordinary cavalcade of administration officials, trump's ono figures alls saying, look, we were pressing the ukrainian government. we were trying to get the quit pro quo which seems to be pretty compelling. otherwise, they were all simultaneously diluted. several people were trying to press the ukrainian government. the republican defense, it was all a misunderstanding, trump never wanted this. it is about ukraine.

i mean, is that part of the problem here? >> well, two things. first of all, this is the first time we've had an impeachment based on misconduct in foreign policy. foreign policy is a very esoteric part of our government. most americans understandably don't have time to think about foreign policy. if they do, it's in a very emotional way, they think about security. will we be attacked? this was not an issue about russia or ukraine attacking the united states. there's a second issue here, which is that you have two theories of impeachment. one is the broad theory which is an understanding of a threat to our constitutional system which does not necessarily involve a violation of our law and a very narrow theory which is the president should not be removed, except for criminal violations, bribery and treason being two of them. the argument in this time is the same as the second article against nixon. it's an abuse of power. that's a broad theory of impeachment.

making that argument on foreign policy to which most americans don't have an emotional attachment is really hard. that's not to say you shouldn't make it. there he is a constitutional obligation on the part of the article one institution congress to defend the constitutional system but it's much harder when it's on the basis of an abuse of power connected to foreign policy. >> makes a lot of sense. thank you all. fascinating conversation. next on "gps," which do you think will have a greater effect on donald trump's chance of re-election, impeachment or the state of the economy? stay tuned. we will explore the great power of the wallet in elections around the world. [boy sneezes] for real cold and flu protection you can't protect them from an imaginary cold but with lysol, you can help protect them from the real one.

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if you for our "what in the world" segment. for everyone following the democratic primary, i have some

potentially deflating news. if the economy holds up, a number of forecasting models that have worked well historically project that president trump will be re-elected. the reason is simple. americans usually vote on the economy and the american economy doing well. >> people are making money. >> but let me show you an important exception to the economy rule. india. in the second quarter of this fiscal year, gdp growth slowed to 4.5%, the lowest in more than six years. consumer spending has fallen dramatically but as the carnegie endowment writes, something is strange even as the economy has turned down, modi, the prime minister, remains popular. he sailed to a second term in may with an even bigger mandate than the one he garnered five years earlier. his approval ratings continue to be high. there are a number of reasons why voters might not be inclined to punish modi for the economy.

perhaps they understand that india's economic problems pre-date him but the question remains, how does he remain so popular as the economy keeps faltering. richard sherman notes in his book "democracy on the road" they don't vote based primarily on the economy. from 1990 to 2019, 32 indian state leaders had 8% growth in their first terms but 53% of the time they lost their re-election bid. that's because the economy gets dwarfed among a raft of other concerns. perhaps most commonly culture and identity. that is where modi, a self-avowed hindu nationalist has proven an extremely good leader. he's presided over the state government when it experienced a wave of massive anti-muslim

movements. he has never apologized for those events. on the eve of the last election he seized on an act of terror to accuse them of being pro pakist pakistan. the latest is the citizenship amendment act which critics say violates the secular nature of the constitution by specifying for the first time a religious basis for granting citizenship. though this policy was pushed through in his second term, modi was never shy about signaling his intent. his re-election was at least in part a mandate for his party's cultural agenda. so a focus on that agenda, while bad for the principal of diversity, might be good for modi as a politician. that might be true for more than just india. after all, donald trump ran the last time around by sounding the alarm against mexicans. >> they're bringing drugs.

>> the chinese, muslims. we may be in an age wherefore many voters culture trumps economics. next on "gps" last month iran saw some of the most significant protests since the 1979 revolution that toppled the shaw. what happened to the protests? where did the protesters go? stay tuned. when you shop with wayfair, you spend less and get way more. so you can bring your vision to life and save in more ways than one. for small prices, you can build big dreams, spend less, get way more.

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testing advanced centrifuges that will enhance uranium. this is another step away from the 2015 nuclear deal. iran is not only at odds with the outside world. it is facing considerable internal descent. last month protests all over the country did what it called the worst unrest since the 1979 revolution that toppled the shaw but the crackdown against the protests was also historic in its force. a u.s. official says as many as 1,000 people may have died. what is next for the opposition? let me bring in an iranian activist in exile. asi, one of the things you've been able to do is get a lot of the videos that people were sending out even though there were internet bans and such. what you can tell from those internet recordings, what is going on now? >> you know, i have to say the level of crackdown was

unbelievable. that's why the government actually managed to push people back home. but, trust me, they are preparing to get back to the street because the anger is there. you know, in three days, only three days massacre happened so that is why people right now, they got back home. they are angry. they are fed up with the government. the main thing that i am hearing from people, especially i am being in touch with the family of the people who loved their beloved one, the family of prisoners, they are looking for a chance to get back to the streets. >> the sound has been very clever in using a mixture of pat throw naming and repression and has been able to survive. do you think it will be able to survive the protests? >> i don't think so. this time -- let me just give you an example. a woman, a young woman sent me a video in the middle of a crackdown.

she was filming two people got killed in front of her eyes. she was talking on the video saying, i cannot believe it myself, that they are killing people. she got back home. she sent me the video and what she said to me is your answer, she said, masi, i am going to go back to the street again. i don't understand why i'm fearless. the reason is because i saw the fear in the eyes of security forces. so for 40 years we the people of iran have been scared of them. now they are scared of the people. >> let me ask you about your own movement and your own story. you've started a movement. >> sure. the movement that i started was about a job. a lot of people would say why, they have so many bigger problems, why do you care about small piece of cloth. i want to say that compulsory hijab, that's a dictatorship.

it's something that the government used to control the whole society so when i moved -- started the movement, my self freedom and then white wednesday's campaign, i didn't know, i didn't expect that is going to go beyond compulsory hijab. i was receiving videos from women who were before joining white wednesday's movement. >> what are white wednesdays? >> white wednesday's movement, it's a platform where women wear a white symbol or take off a whitehead scarf and walking unveiled in public which is a punishable crime. right now there are six women receive altogether 109 years prison sentence. >> just for not wearing the hijab. >> just for not wearing a hijab. >> what's happened to your family in iran? >> they did anything, anything to keep me silent. to punish me. from the beginning they said i was raped by three men, but it

was a big lie. in their mindset, it means, if you're a woman, you get raped, then it's your fault. they wanted to keep me silent. that didn't work. then they went after my family. they brought my sister on iranian national television to disown me publicly. 20 minutes show my sister was disowning me publicly. 20 minutes on iranian mother. my 70-year-old woman who wears hijab, she has nothing to do with my campaign but they interrogated her for two hours to keep silent. i didn't. then on july, the head of revolutionary court, a cleric, saying any woman who send videos to masi will be charged up to ten years prison. the government find out that they cannot keep me silent, they went after my brother. so they arrested my brother in front of his two small children. they handcuffed him, blindfolded

him. it is called hostage taking because he has nothing to do with my campaign or he was not involved in political activities. they arrested him to punish me, to break me. i don't want to keep silent and i don't want to show them that they are going to win if they punish me by arresting my family. >> well, you are definitely not broken. pleasure to have you on. >> thank you so much for having me. next on "gps," a feel-good story, sort of, as we enter the peak of the holiday season. my next guest, husband and wife who won the nobel prize in economics together on making even more progress if possible. (vo) snap and sort your expenses to save over $4,600 at tax time. quickbooks. backing you.

the ones that make a truebeen difference in people's lives. and mike's won them, which is important right this minute, because if he could beat america's biggest gun lobby, helping pass background check laws and defeat nra backed politicians across this country, beat big coal, helping shut down hundreds of polluting plants and beat big tobacco, helping pass laws to save the next generation from addiction. all against big odds you can beat him. i'm mike bloomberg and i approve this message.

the world bank defines extreme poverty as living on less than $1.90 per day. i'm quite sure your morning coffee or tea costs considerably more than that. there's great news on this front. in 1981, 42% of this world's population was living in extreme poverty. today it is just 10%. if my next guests continue their ground breaking work, that number could get close to zero. they are a husband and wife team. they are joint winners of this year's nobel prize in economics along with michael cramer. we recently had a chance to talk

about their prize-winning work. pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. >> so first thing i have to ask you is what is it like to be married and simultaneously win the know beal economics prize? >> i suppose it's two good things for the price of one. >> but did it -- at the time it happened, what i noticed was there were a few headlines that said things like -- there's one that said indian-american m.i.t. professor and wife wins the nobel prize. what did you think? there were a few more like that. >> i didn't have time to get offended because the french press said esther dewfleur wins nobel prize. >> what's fascinating about your work is that there are so many things to talk about, but i want to start by talking about the

fact that you up end one of the central assumptions of economics. this is about economic man or woman, rational man or woman and the basic idea is we all as human beings respond to economic responses. your work says when you observe it, that's not true. give me -- expand on this. >> well, i mean, many versions of this. for example, the one that's politically perhaps the most salient is rich people, unless you give them huge tax breaks, they're going to take a vacation. there's absolutely no evidence. it's hard to even imagine that somebody like bill gates suddenly going on vacation. i don't think he could do it if he tried actually. i don't think there is any evidence that corporate tax cuts are necessary to get that. on the other end, the poor, i mean, there's a story that if

you give them free money they're going to retire. again, no evidence for it. they seem to be -- if anything, especially in some of the developing countries, there's evidence if you give them money they may actually be cheered up and may actually work a little harder. >> one of the methods that you really opined here is the idea of going in and observing what people do, tinkering with some of the things, you know, you give one -- you do one thing for one group, one thing for another group. what does it reveal in terms of this idea that we are all bound by economic incentives? >> yeah. so one series of experiments, not just one but maybe a dozen of experiments that revealed the poor don't get discouraged from working when they receive free money is a series of programs that have happened around the world, in latin america, in the u.s. so people get some money as long

as the kids go to school and they get the basic preventive care services for their children. one can look at what happened to the equivalent. to receive or not to receive. across all of these experiments you never see a difference in the probabilities that people are working or in harmony. if anything, whenever you see a small difference, it's actually the people who receive money work a little more. >> you also worked in some of the poorest parts of the world. you worked in a part of india that is pretty poor. what is the -- is there a simple answer to the question of, you know, what does one do about that kind of extreme poverty? for government who doesn't have the resources of the united states? >> well, i think in our book we make the case that it's probably -- that is exactly

where you may want to go for something like universal basic income. maybe ultra basic income. not really very much but the government attempt to help the poor has always been a little bit colored by this idea that if you give them free money they will be a bunch of lazy people and just take it. so you basically have this scheme where what happens is you have to go to work to get the money, which is not clear that that's how you help the poorest people. we worked with some women who had been abandoned by their husbands and had good small children. how do they do the work? where do the children go? they were not using these schemes. as a result they were begging essentially. the loss of dignity from that seems extremely -- that i think

most countries can achieve and we should try to achieve. >> you're the youngest nobel laureate in economics. were you surprised when this happened or people had been talking about it but surprised might be the understatement of the year. i was flagger gasted, i was like what, i'm much too young for this. >> what about you? >> well, i mean, you know, i also thought, bizarre as this might seem to you, i also thought i was too young. >> the only reason this could happen is this is not a prize just for the three of us, the two of us, but this is a prize for a whole movement of people who have tried to go back to the field and understand the problem of the poor in detail and try out solutions without ever being too convinced they might work,

and move to go to the next solution, and that is much much broader than us, that hundreds and hundreds and thousands of projects, and i think that is a little bit what the nobel prize committee tries other than just any of us individually. >> esther duflo, abhijit banerjee, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. >> and we will be back. lysol. what it takes to protect. the wait is over. t-mobile is lighting up 5g nationwide. while some 5g signals go only blocks, t-mobile 5g goes miles... beyond the big cities to the small towns... to the people. now, millions of americans can have access to 5g on t-mobile. and this is just the beginning.

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my book of the week is "impeachment, a handbook" by charl charles black. this was written by a law professor during nixon's downfall but is the best guide for the layperson mixing constitutional knowledge with commons. my favorite example of the latter is explaining why something that is not technically a crime could still be an impeachable offense. black explains that if the president were to move to saudi arabia so he could have four wives and would have proposed to conduct the office of the presidency by mail and wireless from there. this would not be a crime provided his passport were in

order but would surely be grounds for impeachment. i want to talk about two upcoming chances to see my documentary. on monday, tune into cnn at 11:00 p.m. eastern to see my cnn special report. preside presidents on trial, an inside look at impeachment. it's a timely look at the historic week we just witnessed and an in-depth examination of our past. clinton, nixon, and even andrew johnson. and next sunday, viewers in the u.s. should tune in to the regular gps time when you can catch my other recent special report, "scheme and scandal, inside the college admissions crisis" 7:00 a.m., 3:00 p.m., 10:00 p.m. eastern. thank you for being part of my program this week. merry christmas, and happy holidays to all of you. i will see you in the new year. like a biotech firm that engineers a patient's own cells to fight cancer.

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