this is "gps," i am fareed zakaria, coming to you live from new york. today on the show. front major escalation. iran's most powerful general is killed my the americans. now, teheran is filing revenge from a crushing response everyone . are we at a start of the next eastern war. who was general qasem soleimani and the complex ties between iran, iraq and america. we'll discuss trump's decision to kill soleimani. the consequences in the middle east. finally, how to get ahead in the 2020? people say to become a

specialist, the research suggests the opposite. an eye opening conversation with david epstein. >> but, first here is my take. just when i thought i was out. they pulled me back in. "god father iii" of never being able to escape his family business. donald trump came into office firmly committed to the bipartisan consensus that the u.s. had wasted more than a decade and untold blood and treasure in the middle east. meanwhile the country had neglected its own problems like its crumbling infrastructure and forgotten working class and foreign policy, washington should have been focused on the real challenge of rising competitor is in china. yet, here we are a few years later, the old conflict is still not resolved, moving towards

military escalation in the middle east again. qasem soleimani, an enemy of the united states. a man direct his forces to battle against our troops. the trump administration was justified in targeting him but why has it placed itself in a situation where for two years now, it has been continually ratcheting up attention in that part of world. what is its goal? every outside intelligence agency including israel concluded that iran was eye bab by the nuclear agreement.

that challenge america and its allies remained. trump withdrew the agreement and designated the revolutionary guards aster rapis terrorist. this maximum campaign gearing to nothing less than regime change in teheran. a goal trump denies. any prospect or nuclear deals or negotiations with the iranians have evaporated. washington has no clear objective or end point. in january 2007 when george w. bush sending thousands of more troops in iran. i ask his opinied his opinion o escalation. we hope you would stay for another ten years. we, china, would keep building up our economy. it is easy to get into another

conflict into the middle east. the place is unstable. there are a lot of real bad guys and many of the locals want america to dcome in and fight their battles for them. getting dragged back and getting into other people's flaws and losing another decade as china march marches on, that's the short aspect to america's strategic decline. let's get started. to begin to understand the significance of this killing, we need to understand who soleimani was. we need to understand the history of the relations between iran, iraq and america. to do all that, i could not think of no better guests, bali, the dean of advance national

studies at vance hopkins. bali was born in teheran. dexter in 2013 he wrote what i think is the best profile of qasem soleimani. dexter, explain and you know people talked about soleimani, revered in the country and regarded by the united states as a terrorist, why did he have this central role in iran? what is the nature of iran's regional influence that the military guy who ends up the most single important guy who directs all these operations. >> soleimani is a product above all was a product of the iran/iraq war which was catastrophic event for iran. and when that war ended in the late 1980s, they set out the iranians set out to make sure

this never happens again. that establish client stay across the region. hezbollah and lebanon and eassa regime essentially ensure they have strategic depth. that vision they have been executing for 30 years and soleimani was effective in doing that. >> he had ties with militias in these countries so those people can act on iran's behalf. >> yes, indeed. the kind of the rescue of the eye s assad regime is a perfect example to fall in 2012 and 2013. the iran brought in the militia to do it. hezbollah and the iraqi militias, they all came in and saved assad at soleimani's direction. >> is iran's policy in disregard, we keep on hearing all the regional activities,

does it feel to you offensive or defensive? >> i think it is cool. it is in the eye of the be holder. in the view of iran, it does not have the technologically advance -- israel or turkey, it is afraid of the united states, it sees itself in a hostile environment and it looks at these militias sees-- what irans as defensive is offensive. iranians after the war, they decide td thd they would never settle with iraq unless iraq is under control. iran is using this opportunity to make sure iraq is neutralized and would never again be a

threat to iran. i want to add other things that dexter says that soleimani was iran's diplomatic region. soleimani met president of iraq and president of afghanistan. he met with putin and persuaded russia to enter the world in syr syria. he had a broad relationship in the region. he was putting together multiple iraqi governments. >> charles de gaulle once says the graveyards are filled with

indespensible people. >> if assad falls, we can't hold teheran. it is that important to them. they'll carry on. is soleimani indespensible? will somebody come into fill in the gap? probably overtime but they are suffering right now. >> it is important to look at this from the other side's perspective. he has blood on his hands, american blood, absolutely true. and from the american's point of view, clearly a terrorist, i remember being in iraq in '03 and '04 and '05.

remember, we are killing you guys but you are killing us. soleimani directing people who were trying to kill his guys. >> you know he was the executer of iran's strategy, much like let's say pakistan generals are executer of pakistan strategy and pakistan they have american blood of source on their hands as well. he was given a remanence by the iranian leadership to make the united states uncomfortable in iraq and make sure the u.s. does not stay, make sure the u.s. gets out and he executed that. and yes, it is bloody but it would not have been any different if he is the commander of the force. that's why it is complicated the reaction in shea or iraq and iran is different outside of

iran or the united states looking in. >> stay with us. next on "gps," we'll talk on how iran and iraq navals. they share a long common history, they are now closely allies. we'll talk about that when we come back. i have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. now, there's skyrizi. ♪ things are getting clearer, yeah i feel free ♪ ♪ to bare my skin ♪ yeah that's all me. ♪ nothing and me go hand in hand ♪ ♪ nothing on my skin ♪ that's my new plan. ♪ nothing is everything. keep your skin clearer with skyrizi. 3 out of 4 people achieved 90% clearer skin at 4 months. of those, nearly 9 out of 10 sustained it through 1 year. and skyrizi is 4 doses a year, after 2 starter doses. ♪ i see nothing in a different way ♪ ♪ and it's my moment so i just gotta say ♪ ♪ nothing is everything skyrizi may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. before treatment your doctor should check you for infections and tuberculosis.

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iran, eiraq and america and qasm soleimani. first of all, i think most people don't understand of the brach drop. eck pla explain what the sheer revival is and explain how it plays into iran's relationship with iraq. >> the shea are minorities. there is a large portion of that population in the middle east and lebanon and iraq and across the persian gulf, after the iraq war in particular, there was this shipping power in iraq away, the shea and this sort of created within the middle east between the zunis. and iran took advantage of this in building relations in iraq and strengthen its relations in lebanon and bahrain and pakistan

essentially creating now of what we called the crescent. the shea minorities in this country, there was a case where they look to iran to help them empower. the shea and iraq took advantage of iran to consolidate their power. in that scenario, soleimani became very important. he was the military relationship between iran and the shea communities. he partner among popularity is the fact that insurgencyinsurges credited in protecting iraq and taken over by isis at the moment there were no army. he sees it as a savior.

many iranians thought he protected the shea shrines from isis. the backdrop to the entire soleimani is the ongoing region. >> i was talking to an iraqi politician who said to me, you americans, you have influence in the region because you can bomb, you are a great fire power, the iranians have influence because they have deep credibility like hezbollah and lebanon. they have ties to these communities. it is a much more, what he was trying to say is abbo bottom up kind of influence. >> they're right down the street. and in iraq, the iranians have basically operated into a certain extent directed and created the shea who were

effective fighting in isis and effective fighting in the united states. this hybrid that we don't have in the u.s. is part of guns. these are really important players which are in iraq which are deeply connected to iran. >> i want to ask you about how you think they're going to respond, the iranians given everything we have discussed? we just heard the prime minister has asked to essentially kick the americans out. if this happens, the iranians may view it as the death of soleimani. this has been their longest standing goal to get the americans out of iraq ever since 2002. >> iranians have to do something

symbol symbolic. i think the longer term is now iran is viewing the united states as a threat than it was before. particularly president trump has shown that he can cross red lines on and on that nobody thought. maximum economic pressure and now he's going to carry out audacious assassinations. the iranians would like the united states to lead starting with iraq and pakistan and then trying to draw a wedge between america's allies in the persian gulf and the united states towards the conconflict. we have a situation where the iranians using any chaos in the region. certain stability was necessarily for them. i think they would push and push and use massive industry in addition to parliament. i think if they get the united states out of iraq, it is a huge

victory and that would make it difficult for us to sustain the presence. >> when we talk about other american allies, at some level, the united states gotten dragged in saudi arabia and iran for regional influence. and it feels to me like what's interesting in this soleimani, the saudis have been restrained. they seemed to be, they want stability. this is everyon for the saudis too much stability. >> they are nervous that things are getting out of control. that would cripple the economy. >> do you think and when you

talk to people, when researching the profile of soleimani. do you think that people thought he was a potential success? >> i think it is a far stretch. i think he's the second most powerful man in the country. he was in an ideal position, he had power. dexter and bali. a pleasure to have you dpguys. we'll talk about the next move. robinhood believes now is the time to do money.

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on saturday, iran's president rouhani said killing soleimani is a great mistake and that americans will face

consequences. president trump says he had 52 iranian targets ready. they would be hit very fast and hard. so where does this all go? megan, deputy national security advisor. she's now at harvard. richard haus and peter definitely did not work for george w. bush. he's a journalist and a contributor to the atlantic and the cnn. megan, you know in some sense considering all the options with iran and never shows this option killing soleimani. why? >> think administration looking at this, obama or the kremlin administration has to weigh the pros and cons.

previous administrations thought there would be a counter terrorism benefit, no doubt this person is better off without him but it has to be evaluated in the contexts of all the risks that comes along with it. it is the risk to u.s. posture in the region and the risk of the u.s. in afghanistan, the risk o risk of broader american goals and bringing diplomatic assess, the real threat starring in russia and china. the risk obviously had to be evaluated in a certain way but my concern is more about how did the trump administration see the benefits and how does that compares to how bush and obama may have seen the benefits. the benefit here is counter terrorism front. soleimani is a critical person

but i am concerned that the trump administration may have made the decision based on the certain kinds of weakness within the iranian regime. we have noted that they have certainly not for a regime change. the idea that iranian regime may be at a critical point under severe economic sanctions and widespread protest in iran maybe the trump administration thought that this was a gamble it would have a much bigger pay off from removing soleimani. >> that seems at least the 35 years of iranian regime is about to collapse. >> there is not a lot of iranian experts who would agree of the analysis that the iranian regime is to collapse. >> more likely to consolidate the iranian regime than to be a final blow or break it up in any

way. this will allow the iranians to unify. soleimani was a revere figure in iran and other parts of the middle east. >> if i think about the short term consequences when people say well, short term is good, even in the short term it consolidated power in iran and weaken america's position in iran. one way to think about this was one month ago. antiregime protest and antiiran protest in baghdad. today they are anti-americans. totally change the narrative inside iraq and all of those people celebrating when american troops coming home from iraq. they should have taken a deep breath and think of the crisis there. iraq as we see has been the hotbed of terrorism.

americans in the region and our friends in the regions are likely to be threatened in parts of the country that our government would not be able to police on its own. i want to take your issue of your pick after being invited back on your show. i think strategically what you said is exactly right but the emphasis here is total at odds with the fact that we have to think about china, north korea, it is not that we got pulled into the middle east. this administration broke the 2015 nuclear deal. we slap sanctions on iran but don't give them a offer up. now we introduced military forces as well as if though we decided we want to escalate the u.s./iranian confrontation. the administration did not impair a situation. it was powerful in the region

and it was obviously desirable, everything else on our plate and even donald trump. the last i check, he talks about america's first. it makes no sense to given his own likes that he wanted to put a greater focus at home and great power rivalry. this suggests total absence of any syria strategic discipline and it is impossible for me to understand how this could have happened. you feel like i am being unfair. >> the question why. why has pompeo been so obsessed with this idea. there seems to be a belief that you can push hard enough and the

whole iranian regime would collapse. >> there are certainly people who would like ultimately to produce a war in the united states bomb iraq and setback its nuclear program. there are people around washington would like that. donald trump made believe that he could do that one day or send out tweets as he did with north korea, a couple of years ago and pull back and be friends the next day. this is not a guy who tends to think about the consequences of anything he does. in some way remarkable part of all of this, if there is one instinct you would think donald trump would understand is national. nationalism is the defining instinct. it gives so little ability to imagine nationalism of other people. we took an iraqi national and we focus in iran. an iranian national growing

against its own state and turning both of its nationalism against us. can this man not imagine how americans would react if a foreign power, how we hate our leadership. i mean actually insane. >> you do get the feeling of richard poi richard's point that there is a lack of process. from the reports we get from deciding to do this the last minute and the pentagon was surprised, he's going to bomb these sites and did not go through national security process. do you worry given how volatile things are and it is all done by one man. >> certainly, it is concerning. if the reports are right that these decisions were made a few

days before it was executed and it was made to the surprise of trump's national security team. if that's the case going back to richard's point, it is in conceivable that the appropriate process could have been in place that people could have thought of all the implications again and not just for u.s./iran relations but u.s. in the middle east. the peace process in afghanistan that iran has already been a spoiler in. all the implications would not take in my mind, weeks of analysis, building contingency plans and preparing partners and allies so we would not get what we saw today. i was going to say the fact that he was supporting a bill who withdraw american troops. that both of those were critical of the u.s. presence in iraq is as dramatic change from where

things have been over the last 16 or 17 years. in order for us to be adequately prepared, it would have taken much more than one meeting or even several takes. >> stay with us, next on "gps," what kind of new president does the killing of soleimani set, what kind of pandora box did it open? if iranian general can be drawn for terrorism, why not a pakistan general. is that the new world? we'll discuss when we come back.

we are back with megan and richard and peter. peter what do you think of this of the president putting on these drone strikes. is it okay for the united states to do both. why can they drone a pakistan general who had blood on his happened or the chinese do believe of a uuighur terrorist and so on. now we are seeing it again and we don't see any evidence for

this. we have been going off authorization over the past two decades ago. you the rest of the world can't do this because you don't have the higher to do it. this sets a tone for the entire world and it is not a promise in the world and it is not going to make the world a better place. >> there were actual plots in the past, we have been given details. is it safe to say giving the president's credibility problem.

it is not true that there is an imminent threat but there are actual props that were being avoided in this fight? >> i am not in the position to say that it is not true. under virtually any circumstances that i can imagine that immediate steps of the administration took action so dramatic would be to go to our allies and share the intelligence would be able to make the case to others why this was absolutely necessary at this moment and in the space. again, this is in a third country and why it had to be done at this time. the fact that we have not seen that is very worrying. not only because it makes us question, was there really intelligence that would have given this some kind of legitimate justification. it suggests to me that the trump administration is going to fall short on the diplomatic

political, all the other tool of engagement, what ever the next term may be. how well this go to the united states and our partners and a y allies depend on how we work with our allies which have every reasons to be nervous about what comes next. working with the europeans or the asians, all of this should be part of any plan to take out such a significant figure. he was not a non-state actor hiding out. he was a senior government official of iran. >> we are talking about this larger dynamic. the saudis is not seen quiet. how is this going to play out? there is a big composition right now that the position in iraq is

threatening. beyond that, what do you think will happen? >> it is going to play out in two ways. this has been part of the world where the united states essentially devoted a disproportionate percentage of its resources and time, the question is why do we want to continue it. does anyone think this is where the 21st century is going to be decided? we are talking about 4% of the world population, proliferation terrorism, this is not apart of the world that's great. this reenforces the strategic era. we are seeing the trump administration. that was a major ill advise war of choice. and i think now it also takes place against the backdrop of much greater doubt about

american reliability. the fact that we did this unilaterally rather than with the iraqis. the fact that the saudis helped them when their refinery was hit. the previous administration had its own predictability in places of syria. so what that dusuggests to me w are increasingly in the middle east where other countries and actors will take matter in their own hand and they're going to disregard american's interest. they're going to do things hey, maybe we need nuclear weapon because we can't count on the united states or go to war. we don't have interest in this region but we have now truly mishandled them. i think in the narrow of the region and globally, this will come back and bite us. >> you have 30 seconds.

israel. how do you think this will play in israel? >> benjamin netanyahu is going to be happy about this. soleimani is the great adversary and particularly benjamin netanyahu the escalation of threats as he goes into another election crisis is good for him. officials will say does america have a strategy? do we actually want to get into a regional war with hezbollah and lebanon could be activated or northern israel could be evacuated. donald trump is taken israel. >> fascinating. we'll be back on this. a quick programming note before the next segment. tune into cnn at 10:00 p.m. eastern to see my cnn special report on "presidents on trial." next, how to get ahead on business, is it better to focus on one skill or better to be a

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call for your free publisher kit today! pick a field and stick to it. practice makes perfect after all. my next guest, david epstein says we got it all wrong. the best path of success is to explore and fail. the author of "range." david epstein, pleasure to have you on. >> thanks for having me. >> i love this idea. why you know we often heard all about how actually very important to have a passion and

to work 10,000 hours at things and why is it okay to be a ja jaguar straight? trait? >> we are seeing a smaller and smaller of the whole picture. these opportunities for generalists to synthesize information in science and technology are greater than before. when we specialize too early, we miss out our match quality, the degree of fit between your interests and abilities and the work that you do. it is important for your motivation and productivity to maximize the quality as you need a period to maximize it. >> that's a very important point. you say that in order to figure out what you are good at. you can't do it theoretically. you can't imagine what you think, you can't do it by studying something. you have to engage and try out stuff.

you call the learn experience is better. >> that's exactly right. we learn as who we are in practice and not in theory. what she means is that we can't just introspect and decide what we are good at or may like. our insider and ourselves constrain by a roster or previous experiences. reflecting on those things and zigzagging accordingly and through that, people tend to become broader and more like generals. >> now, there is one part of this which i was surprised by and it does not seem to fit but explain this air force academy example that you have. >> in education, there was this incredible study where students go in after taking three math classes in the succession and the study was looking at the impact of professor quality and what researchers found was the

way to produce the best media achievement was to teach narrow specialized skills and undermine students of future classes. > >> if you are good at something, only in the short run of what you are doing is you are getting that good performance. >> and the quickest and the absolute quickest way to get improvement whether it is a cognitive skills or physical skills is to teach what's called close skills where you teach people of specialize techniques of what they are doing. to build a scaffolding where they are becoming flexible. they have to draw to get these broad concepts and instead of learning to execute something, they learn how to match a strategy to a problem. that does not matter if it is a math problem or a geopolitical problem or a soccer problem. that's the fundamental bases on which they can layer other

skills. you talk about how maybe you are in an age where you need continuous coaching, how would one achieve that in. >> what we have done inside the sport world for example, we need to bring into other areas of work. the idea that we learn we are in practice and not in ther ory, w have to act and think basically. you do things and reflect on them and you zigzag accordingly and decide who'll be in 20 years and march toward that is. having a coach could help you and remind you to reflect what you have done as you try to optimize. >> life is trial an error. >> with a lot of reflection. >> if you were to leave people with one piece of advice, what would it be? >> the fastest way to become

proficient undermines your long-term development. it can make you good at a specialize task but nowadays, tasks are specialized. you want the flexible malice and now to the creativity economy, you need to be able to do new things and that's a form of learning. >> you believe that's true even in the world of technology because you know a lot of people feel that the hottest place to be is to be in technology which is quite natu narrow. >> coding is very narrow. >> i did not know. what it shows that in studies of millions of patents, the te technological who makes the biggest impact, those are the people who can solve these problems that we don't know exist ys yet basically.

>> you have a daughter, when she becomes older, what will you instruct her to do? >> their parents will respond to their display of interests and not the reverse. i will try to expose her broadly and be that coach to reflect on what she did so she can march towards his approach. >> david, thank you for joining us. >> thank you very much for having me. >> we'll be right back. ♪ yeah that's all me. ♪ nothing and me go hand in hand ♪ ♪ nothing on my skin ♪ that's my new plan. ♪ nothing is everything. keep your skin clearer with skyrizi. 3 out of 4 people achieved 90% clearer skin at 4 months. of those, nearly 9 out of 10

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for the first time the bureau of economic analysis is published for the united states 130 counties. the data captures the economic output of each and everyone of these political subdivisions of states. it brings me to my question this

week, in 2018, america's 31 most produ productive counties, the top 1% of county will responsible for what share of gdp? >> 11%, 17%, 25% or 32%? stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. my book of the week, "a good provider is one who leaves." this is the best book i have read. he chronicled the immigration story, he tells the tale of what it all means. his good writing shines through every page. the answer is d., bloomberg found that 31 counties accounted for one-third of the nation's gdp in 2018. take a look at this map. together these counties occupied a tiny part of the united states

geographical geographically. making urban county the primary engine of economic growth. while it is true that the economy is growing. only pockets of the nation are gaining significantly while the rest are lacking behind. a new dimension of the discussion of america's rural/urban device. trump won by 2600 counties. still, clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million. in 2015, her 500 counties generated two-thirds of american's gdp. growth rates are up in the counties that voted for trump but hillary clinton's out ward counties still grew faster. the geographic growth has become

more extreme which could make another surprising election r t results in 2020. thanks to all of you being apart of our program this week, i will see you next week. create your own ultimate feast

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