this is "gps," i am far reid zakaria. today on "gps," the russian

government resigns all mass. has president putin pave the way to make russia's ruler forever? we dig deep into the criminology. iran less than two weeks ago to be at the brink of war. what's happening in teheran? what then australia on fire. we have seen the heart wrenching pictures these past weeks as down under has been devastated. more than a billion animals are thought to be dead. australia's former prime minister explains the politics behind it all. he first, here is my take.

president trump's trade deal with china is largely a win for beijing. just measure the agreement signed this week against initial demands made by washington in a may 2018 document that beijing prompted leaked. with regard to the central u.s. goals after almost two years of negotiations, tariffs and counter tariffs, mr. trump has achief achieved none of these obje objectiv objectives. china is a one party state that can take a long view. trump gambled he could hurt the chinese economy enough that the fame for american consumers who actually paid for those tariffs would be worth it. he wanted to smooth the economic reco orders as he runs for reelection so he folded.

this trade deal reflects something on the international landscape. something the united states is going to grapple with for decade. as i argued in foreign affairs, china is the first real pure competitor that the united states has faced in the modern era. even the soviet union was never really an economic peer. china is the world's second largest economy. by some measures, it is the largest trading partner of most countries in asia and many around the globe. it holds the world's largest foreign exchange results and it leads the globe in many industries including high-tech sectors like 5g. more significantly, it is not part of the american security system. you see washington has faced an extraordinary benign international environment in one key respect. after world war ii, the country that emerged or reemerged or all

to put it bluntly, american protectors, germany, france, japan and south korea, china is most decidedly not in that group. add to this very different political system and cultural background and beyond, you have the making of a complex relationship that's perhaps destined for some degree of conflict. as trump fails to negotiate to demonstrate, this is not a case of bluster will always work. china too has leverage. the fault does not lie solely with trump. democrats turned hawkish on china and protectionist in general. had the democrats been in the white house, the outcome would not have been very different. the geopolitical threat of a rising china is understood. a comparison may help.

forget the soviet union and look at russia today as it tries to destroy the order since 1945. china has been trying to grow rich and powerful within that order. china is not a road nation like russia seeking to interfere in western democracy and invade its neighbors. as i noted in foreign affairs, china used to be a leading sponsor revolutionary and surgency a cross the planet. america is going to compete with china for the bulk of the 21st century. it will have to do so wisely in listing allies and trying to keep the competition within the international system. if we go down a path of confrontation and containment,

china is powerful enough that this struggle would destroy the open international order and the open to the economy, we would end up with government control on trade technology and travel and a seizeless struggle for allies and lower level of economic growth and a danger for a nuclear arm's race and even war. with china, the challenge is not how tough you can be but how small. go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post this week. let's get started. the world was bracing itself for a potential war between iran and the united states. that fear has lessen for now. the president of teheran for the

first time, he said the u.s. government has no crediblility and he went on calling iran acts of god. on the american side there were no casualties from those attacks. cnn learned late in the week that 11 service members actually been injured. where will this all go from here? let's bring in the expert? our regular on gps, ariana, let me start with you and ask you what do you make of these that's said and what is the atmosphere in iran right now. this is the first time he led press since the arab spring, people were rattling everywhere in the middle east.

what's going on in teheran right now. >> he led the friday's prayers and one he had comments to make, he makes them from different platform. he rarely leaves the prayer himself. he does that when there is something big going on and clearly this is something that the regime considers as a big field for him to comment. nothing he said was surprising. i think the main thing to take away from this is the regime is is clearly seeing itself at a point where it does need to do some damage control, following the downing of the airliner when it was striking the two base in iraq and the supreme leader came out to make kmepcomments and pig up the pieces several weeks since he show up in corruption with the crack down on

protesters and the downing of the airliner. >> what to make of this doolipi where you see millions of people out on the morning of soleimani's death. some of it is heartfelt and you have protesters and you know i am struck by america where you have dooliifferent narratives. protesters are the face of iran. what's the real face of iran? >> similar to the united states, iran is as deeply polarize society to millions of iranians. soleimani was a war hero. to many millions of iranians, he symbolize the state where people are tired of living under. i think that the reaction to the downing of the ukraine airliner was significant because when people saw the iranians, a lot

of highly educated young professionals and iran is also a young modern society, i think people could identify with the victims of the ukraine airline crash much more than they could with qassem soleimani. >> ariane, this is all happening in the run up to parliamentary elections. what do you think happens? there is a sense that the hard liner are firmly in control. >> one thing that's interesting to watch is the number of people who has been disqualified so far just for some contact, this is not unusual again and the gua guardian council, they prefer candidates and sideline anyone who would not fall in line with the regime wholistically, you have a presentation from different spectrum within the political system, it has to be

within the bound of the public and nothing outside of it. what's interesting to watch is there is a concerted effort to disqualify of people currently sitting members of iranians. 90 people who have been disqualified so far. there may be more. this tells you something about where the regime is sees itself currently and how much it is concerned about the elections and how it fears the sort of polarization that karim was describing of iran. >> the people who are disqualified the kidney of rouhani faction of the iranian government, correct? >> most of them have been disqualified because of financial issues. they're trying to frame it under this umbrella of anti-corruption effort.

that may not be the case, for the most part it is about politics and making sure that conservatives and hartline and other regimes are presented or rouhani which is more moderate. >> karim, explain to us what's happening in terms of iran's economy and the regimes to manage. the data seems pretty clear. the iranian economy because of the sanctions shrunk 10% last year. the regime does seem in control, what's going on? >> well, i think the reality of iranian politics is the regime is highly organized and highly armed and ready to keep power and society is unorganized and unarmed and not ready to die to take power and so despite the fact that iran's economy is in terrible shape and they're

hemorrhaging a lot of money. iran is the most lonely country in the world. it is only reliable allies of the government. the most powerful actor of the supreme leader and the revolutionary guards remained committed in staying power. we know dictateshorshipdictatort the moment the short collapse isl islis i islamic public -- >> trump now says he wants a deal, there is no outline of what it would mean. where does this go? i have a hard time seeing them negotiating but i have a hard time seeing them able to withstand this level of pressure. >> the supreme's leader hope is sustain this pressure until

november 2020 and hope a democrat is elected. i think that he's now the longest serving dictator in the middle east because of the sultan's passing last week. >> fascinating. karim and ariane, thank you so much. >> is putin setting himself up to rule russia 30 years or everyoeven more. he made political moves this week that had people talking. we'll discuss when we come back. the thought of my symptoms returning was keeping me from being there for the people and things i love most. so, i talked to my doctor and learned humira can help get, and keep, uc under control when other medications haven't worked well enough. and it helps people achieve control that lasts

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russia's deputy medevedev was the prime minister and then he named putin. putin made another move that many analysts see a way to ensure that he perhaps could rule russia forever. on wednesday, the entire russian government resigns includi. what does all this mean? is there a master plan? joining me now, she's a staff writer at "the atlantic" and alexander, a senior fellow at the carnegie center. he joins us from the russian capit capitol. anne, put this in perspective for us, it is a big and kind of

precarious mystery. russia seems to be the only country that's ruled in a way that nobody understands what the structure and succession is. if xi jinping would leave office, we would understand they would elect a new person. with russia, we have kind of only putin. we don't have a system so it is understandable that these speculations are important is what happens after putin? >> it is important to make three points and one of them reflects what you just said, all the best experts will start by saying we don't know what it means. he may be signaling people we don't know. there are few people who are close to putin now.

he may have a plan he has not revealed yet. everything you hear about this you have to start with that caveat. the second point is although there is a constitutional and governmental change, it is clearly that putin declared it. it is not a constitutional change of the kind you have in a democracy where there is a national debate and voting and so on. this is putin saying i am changing the constitution right now. it is interesting that he wants to preserve some democratic forum and language. he's telling us he's going to set aside what's next. the third point which you alluded to is that this looks to most people like putin doing planning for the future, if he created a new state body that he can be the head of after he leaves the presidency. he juggled around the powers within the system so he can go on and staying in control even after he leaves office. he's included some rules and

actually limits russian access to international laws so he seems to be saying right the world can back off of russia. and he's also included a couple of rules that say the next president of russia can't be somebody who spent any time abroad and that seems to intended to eliminate some rivals. he's planning ahead for the end of his current term which is in 2024. >> yeah, much closer, close analyst of what's going on. how do you read this? >> it is a first shot and we should take a decade. pew the putin is on his way out but he wants to remain in charge as long as he's active. he signals he'll leave the office at 2024 and he'll not come back to the kremlin as a president. he'll be in charge but he'll not be in the throne but some where

above the throne. the second point is the next president will not be another vladimir putin, that'll not be somebody that can carry on swap jobs with his prime minister or anybody else. there will be term limits from now on and two constitutional terms as a president for six years and that's about it. he could not pull the trick like he did back in 2008. i think that we should see that in a broader context of putin planning to architect his legacy. he's both a authoritarian leader who cares about what happens to him or his family and friends. he also feels a sense of historic responsibility as a russian leader. he believes that he made russia great again and now is the time to set the clock moving into

norm normalize power transition. >> one could read this. putin wanted to rule as an absolute ruler, he's putting in place of a structure that has some checks and balances, parliament does seem to have some -- is this possibly a scenario where after putin, russia will become a bit more liberal and a bit more democratic? >> i think if you begin with the point you made to start out with namely that, there is no succession process in russia then you have to wonder whether if that's true. the fact the matter when putin is gone, we don't know what happens next. there is not a rule book. i would also say another explanation for these moves that putin is increasingly unpopular. he may need some scapegoats to explain to the russian people

why the economy is not growing as fast as it was and why there is still a lot of discontends of infrastructures and on so. and now i have someone else, this may also be in attempt to kind of prolong his rule by placing the burden of government on someone else. the one sign that we may be pointing to something that is telling that the new prime minister, the bureaucrat has a very good reputation by being clean and efficient and tax collection and things like that. do you read anything into that choice? that guy is going to be prime minister. >> i am not sure that he's that clean and already there are many investigations be done by one of the position leaders and we show

some wrong doing. i don't think many russians could believe anybody at the top on the minister level is 100% clear. that's probably impossible in the russian system. the choice is between very or more efficient bureaucrats by the russian standard or absolutely worthless or in efficient because they are lawyer to mr. putin. he's not part of mr. putin's circle. i think he sees as a leader and a prime minister who could be a better leader of the government. at the same time i would not say if that's a demotion. he'll be putin's department in the house. pew ten's statement when he announ announced of the resignation and he'll be given a new role,

that's removing of an unpopular job to a new job that'll make his reputation some what better. that's one of the opportunities but mr. putin wants to deep many options open and he has the potential. >> thank you both for trying to unravel what is famously called by russia. . next on "gps," what can we learn from the last decade about what may happen in the next one. that story when we come back. if you masz shiss a show, go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my podcast. fifty-six straight, come on! that's it, left trade right trade.

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now for wh"what in the worl segment. what were the decade's top trends and what we can get into the future. you have these amazing charts. if you look at the investment theme by decades. what you notice for the last decade is america. we started the financial growth and financial crisis but by the end of it we come out of it

better than anyone else, i said we as in the united states. >> yes, every decade in post war ii history. economic and economic landscape h have dominated. now you can see that's not much of an increase but given what most people thought what america is going to do in the turn of the decade. this is a surprising outcome. in financial terms what we have seen is just out of control. we have seen the americans stock market over the last decade go up multiple times comparing to any other stock market. >> you have a chart that shows it. china, for example, that's one thing people ask me why it was

not china's decade. so when it comes to stock market return or the use of the u.s. dollars in the international system, the u.s. completely dominates in a way that no other country does. the dominance of the u.s. today is so complete that the u.s. shares in the global stock markets today is 56%. >> part of the explanation is the extra which is technology. if you look at returns by industry, technology is by far the biggest. >> we think this is normal but this is not normal and for one sector we are so done. >> the last decade which is the 2000s, the exact happens. >> at the bottom of the chart, we'll use commodities. this is what the world taught as a felon of the decade, those are the sectors that's going to

dominate the world. china needs more commodity. america dominates in the decade. >> now what you are describing is the great income and inequality. when you look at the political effect of this, you have this great chart of the share of right wing and left wing populist parties and what you see is populists voting is going way up. >> right. >> this is a dominant trend across the world and you see parties from the left and right. this is great financial balance that we have seen. the number of billions double this decades from a thousa1,000

2,000. that's some what widen to me. this explains a lot of the trends in the world today from increase polarization to increase to do something of the fact that's so extreme. this could be something which we watch for the counter attack. >> so i want to close with this one very interesting chart you had, you took the six hard themes and what you did was ask yourself, how did that theme technology or japan, how do they do the next decade. was one decade of a good predictor of how they did the next and what you found was the median performance of a heart trend was actually negative and the basic seems to be here nothing lasts forever.

>> when something is very hard, the next decade is never. it almost gives up the entire performance that it has comparing to the rest of the world. this is my big concern here that yes, we had a great decade for america, this is america's decade, we may be at peak america. if you look at the coming decade, what's going to be hard is living different. that's being the one lesson of post world war ii decade. richard sharma, fascinating as always. thank you. next on "gps," the devastating fire down under, what this politics had to do with it? actually, quite a bit. i will talk to australia's form t er prime minister when we come back. ok everyone!

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less than 20 days into the new year, the news about climate had been devastating. 2019 was the second hottest year on record. the ocean is warming at the rate of five hiroshima bombs dropping every second. we learn the tragedy down under. after an extremely hot dry spring, wildfires have burned now on every state in australia. the area that has burned larger than belgium and denmark put together. more than two dozens people have died as a result of the fires and more than 3,000 homes have been burned. an australian professor estimated more than 1 billion animals have died in the fire.

yes, billion with a "b." that i want to bring in kevin rudd, the former prime minister of australia. kevin, this is a sense of the under side of australia's miracle, australia grown without a recession for what is it, 25 years, something like that, 28 years? at the heart of that it has been a fossil fuel extraction economy. >> the energy sector in australia has been important and natural gas as well. but, of course, there are other sectors of the economy and agriculture and information technology and tourism. the truth the matter is for the better part of a decade now, we

had continued conservative government in australia which is around a gender climate change denial. reenforced by their partners and crimes. the climate change debate is intensely polarizing in australia like it is in the united states and a few other countries. as a consequence it becomes very hard to a, truce measures which measurably reduce greenhouse gas emissions and b, transform our economy at a time and c, take out proper place as leading global climate change action in the council of the world rather than a conservative government doing which is under mining global consensus. >> weeks before the fire began, explaining the left in australia had been taken by a cult of

climate change and liking it to kind of religious. is that kind of thing difficult now given the extent of the damage? >> prime minister abbott and his political party, whars cat's ca the liberal national party coalition in australia is having looking at itself closely, giving a sheer magnitude on its fire. none of it have seen anything like this and the politics of fear around let's call it the cost of climate change actually has been well mobilized by the conservatives in australia just as being well mobilized by the united states. >> explain the role of the murdoch of australia. we are more familiar with fox

news and such. >> well, the actual corporate of murdoch's empire is australian. murdoch owns 70% of the print media in australia. one television network as well and a big online presence. therefore, for any political party to negotiate their future in australia like mine, which has been committed to climate change action in the last 15 years. it becomes whether heavy when everyday and every capitol city in australia, the equivalent of the new york post or the london sun unleashes its broadside against you for daring to propose to increase renewable energy and decrease carbon use and improve energy efficiency. it is not just an assault in australia but has an effect on

the global consensus on climate change. murdoch's power reflected in fox news in america. >> when you look at the politics in australia, what lesson do you draw for the united states which as you say have a similar and unusual for a rich country, large climate denial. >> the climate change would produce in south eastern and south western australia, deeper and more intense drought and coming earlier in the season. the northern tropical half of the country, we'll see wild weather events cyclone and alike and huge storms. >> all that's happening. >> look at america, the m mediterranean that we had frankly in california.

when you see these mass activivs in australia to our friends in california to say get ready for much more. subtropical parts in florida, the reality and the impact of wild weather events and we see of hurricane activities in the united states in the recent years, more extreme and frequ t frequent. the economic cauost and the financial cost and health cost and inhaling smoke is a massive proportion. bring up your local insurance company and ask what is the cost of premiums now for insurance against extreme weather event, droughts or floods or fire, going through the roof, why? climate. >> kevin rudd, thank you very much.

>> up in the casnext, how good predicting the future. are you a super forecaster? we want to know what you think in 2020. will donald trump be elected? stay tuned. for $14.99. choose soup or salad. one of seven delicious entrées - like new hawaiian-style garlic shrimp. and, get a sweet dessert. three courses. one amazing price. so come in today. hey, our worker's comp insurance is expiring. should i just renew it? yeah, sure. hey

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a book that you're ready to share with the world? get published now, call for your free publisher kit today! the new year has started dark darken, what does the rest of 2020 have for us. some turn to fortune tellers and intelligent analystanalysts, weo turn to everyday people. we interview the concept of super forecasters to forecast the future. the people we profile had their answer aggregated into prediction by a company called good judgment, which expanded

into a platform. two years ago, good judgment asks you our fareed zakaria audience to predict our global challenge. nearly 6,000 of you weighed in on our forecast. let's take a look at what you predicted. you accurately rest that ben salman would continue to be the crown prince. another one, justin trudeau rema remaining the prime minister? they were concerned of a potential corruption scandal that erupted in february. his number fell from 85% to 50%

over the next two months. forecasters held that trudeau would remain as prime minister. a speculation would never dip. when the house authorize the impeachment, forecasters thought there is only an 18% chance that president trump would be impeached. the numbers began to tick up as the house revealed testimonies, reaching 60% when nancy pelosi requested the articles of impeachment be drafted. i was wondering what the other 40% thinks. if you think you can do better for predicting the future for next year. go to gjopen.com/far reid. will there be a vacancy in the u.s. court?

tell us what you think. that's gjopen.com/fareed. always tune in on teahese questions and more. what it takes to be a super forecaster, you can visit my website on cnn.com/fareed. thank you all of you for being apart of my program this week, i will see you next week. ♪ it's the easiest because it's the cheesiest. kraft. for the win win.

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i am brian stelter, time for "rh "reliable sources." this hour we are talking about why this book is