this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world, i'm fareed zakaria. today on gps, the russian government resigned en mase. the unexpected move makes people wonder how president putin paves the way to make him russia's ruler forever. we dig deep into kremlin technology. also, iran, less than two weeks to go on the war with america. they are absorbing new sanctions and dealing with the aftermath

of the downing of a civilian airliner. what is happening in tehran? is this a lull before the next storm? then, australia on fire. we've seen the heart wrenching pictures these past weeks as down under has been devastated. more than a billion animals are thought to be dead. australia's former prime minister kevin rudd explains the politics behind it all. but first, here's my take. president trump's phase 1 trade deal with china is largely a win for beijing. just measure the agreement signed this week against the initial demands made by washington in a may 2018 document that beijing promptly leaked. as the financial times conclude, with regard to the central u.s. goals, after almost two years of negotiations, tariffs and

countertariffs, mr. trump has achieved none of these objectives. this outcome is partly the reflexion of the two side staying power. china is a one party state that can take the long view. trump gambled he could hurt the chinese economy enough with the imposition of tariffs the american consumers that paid for those tariffs would be worth it. event wally the president decided he wanted to smooth the economic waters as he runs for re-election. so he folded. from a broader perspective, however this trade deal reflects something new on the international landscape. something the united states is going to have to grapple with for decades. as i argue in an essay in foreign affairs, china is the first real pure competitor that the united states has faced in the mod were era. even the soviet union was never really an economic pier. china, after all, is the world's

second largest economy. in fact, by some measures, it is the largest. it is the largest trading partner of most countries in asia and many around the globe. it holds the world's largest foreign exchanges reserves and leads the globe in many industries, including high-tech sectors like 513 g, perhaps more significantly, it is not a part of the american security system. you see washington has faced an extraordinary benign international environment in one key respect. after world war ii, the countries that emerged or reemerged to wealth and power were all, to put it bluntly, american protectorates, america, japan, china is most decidedly not in that group. add to this very different political system and cultural background as well as a desire to project power in asia and beyond and you have the makings of a complex relationship that is perhaps destined for some degree of conflict.

but as trump's fair negotiations demonstrate, this is not a case where threats, confrontation and bluster will always work. china, too, has leverage. and on china, the fall does not rise solely with trump. democrats have turned equally hawkish on china and protectionist in general. trump's deal has been criticized by all the leading right of the party but had a democrat been in the white house, the outcome probably would not have been very different. the gentleman a political threat of a rising carolina is poorly understood, often prompting knee-jerk references to another cold war. a comparison might help, forget the soviet union and look at issue is today as it tries to degrade even destroy the open international order the west formed since 1945, china has actually been trying to grow rich and powerful within that order. carolina is not a rogue nation like russia seeinging to interfere in western democracy and invade its neighbors.

as innoted, china used to be a ed looing sponsor of revolutionary insurgencies across the planet. it is now the second largest funder of u.n. peace keeping. in fact, beijing has not gone to war since 1979, a record of non-intervention that makes it unique among the permanent members of the u.n. security council. america is going to compete with china for the bulk of the 21st century, lit have to do so wisely, enlisting alliess and keep it in the system. if we go down confrontational containment, china is now powerful enough this struggle would destroy the international order and the global economy. we would end up with government controls on trade, technology and travel, a ceaseless struggle for allies and influence around the world, lower levels of economic growth and the dangers of a nuclear arms race and even war. with china, the challenge is not how tough you can be but how

smart. cnn.com/fareed, read my washington column this week and let's get started. ♪ . >> less than two weeks ago, the world was bracing itself for a potential war between iran and the united states. >> that fear has lessened for now. but on friday, iran's ayatollah khomenei led the friday prayers in tehran for the first time in eight years. he said the u.s. government had no credibility and that france, germany and the uk are simply servants of america. he went on to call iran's missile attacks on bases housing american service people acts of god, on the american side, the pentagon originally announced that when no casualties from those attacks, but cnn learned late in the week that 11 service members had actually been

injured. where does this all go from here? let us bring in the experts. a senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for peace and a regular on gps. and an associate political scientist at the rand corporation. aryan, let me start with you and ask you, what do you make of these -- the, what khomenei has said and what is the atmosphere in iran right now? this was the first time he led press since the arab spring. after the arab spring, people were everywhere in the middle east. he came out as a show of support. what is going on in tehran now? >> well, as you said, this is highly unusual for supreme leader, himself, to lead the friday prayer. typically, when he has comments to make, he makes them from different platforms. but he very rarely actually leads the prayer, himself. and he does that when there is something big going on and, clearly, this is something that the regime considers a big

enough field for him to comment. now, nothing he said was particularly surprising. i think the main thing to take away from this, though, is that the regime is clearly seeing itself as a point where it does need to do damage control following the downing of the airliner when it was striking the two bases in iraq and the supreme leader came out to make comments, to make sure that you know he was kind of getting ahead of the narrative that the regime was able to pick up the pieces after several weeks to of a show of incompetence and corruption with the crackdowns on protesters and the downing of the airliner. >> what do you make of these dualing pictures? have you what seem like millions of people out mourning soleimani's death, probably some of the government organized of course, some of it probably heart felt. then you have protesters. i'm struck by in america each the dualing narratives, one saying the regime, the soviet

union soleimani was much loved and the protesters face of iran. what is the real face of iran? >> well, similar to the united states, iran is a deeply polarized united states, soleimani was a war hero, but to many millions of iranians, he symbolized the police state which people are tired of living under. i think that the reaction to the do you think of the ukraine airliner was significant, because, when people saw the iranians who died in this crash, a lot of highly educated young professionals and iran is also a young modern society and i think people would identify with the victims of the ukraine airline crash, much more than they could with quassem soleimani and his blood-soaked career. >> aryan, this is all happening in the run-up to parliamentary

elections. what do you think happens? there is a sense that the hardliners are firmly in control? >> well, one thing that's interesting to watch is the number of people who have been disqualified so far. just to, for some context, this is not unusual again, the guardian counsel and the regime were generally, will tend to try to put forward their preferred candidates. they do tend to sideline anyone who would not fall in line with the regime wholistically. you have a presentation from different spectrums within the political system. but it has to be within the bound of the islamic republic, nothing outside of it. but what has been interesting to watch is that there is a concerted effort already to disqualify even people who are currently sitting members of the iranian parliament. there has been by their own estimates 90 people disqualified so far and there may be more so this tells you something about whether a regime sees itself currently, how much it is

concerned about the elections and how it fears the sort of polarization that he was describing earlier on. >> and the people being disqualified, overwhelmingly people who are more in the kind of rouhanien-zarif liberal faction of the government, correct? >> well, the counter-narrative is most of them have been disqualified because of financial issues. so they're sort of trying to frame it under the umbrella of anti-corruption efforts. but that's certainly not the case. there might be some financial issues. but for most part, this is about politics. it's about making sure that those conservative and hard line outside of the government regime are more represented than those that are aligned with the reformists, for example, or rouhani's camp, that is more moderate. >> so explain to us what is happening in terms of iran's economy and the regime's ability to manage? because the data seems pretty

clear. i said the iranian economy because of the sanctions is strong 10% last year. the estimates should get at least that much again this year. yet the regime does seem in control. what's going on? >> well, i think the reality of the iranian politics is that the regime is highly organized, highly armed and ready to kill to keep power and society is unorganized, unarmed and not ready to die to take power. so despite the fact that iran's economy is in terrible shape and also hemorrhaging a lot of mo into fund the overseas allies and iran is one of the most strategically lonely countries in the world, the only ally has been the syrian government. the reality is that the most powerful actors in iran, the supreme leader and revolutionary guards remain committed to staying in power. we know dictatorships, it seems inconceivable after the fall and

collapse appears inevitable. i think at the moment, short of the collapse it appears inconceivable to most people. >> so what happens if the americans keep this pressure on, which seems entirely likely. trump now says he wants a trump deal. but there are no outlines on who wla that would mean? where does this go? i have a hard time seeing them negotiating. i have a hard time seeing them withstand this level of pressure. >> i think the supreme leader's hope is to sustain this pressure until november, 2020 and hope that a democrat is elected, if he's donald trump and goes back to the nuclear deal and status quo and i think that he's now itoll khomen iayatollah khomeini is the longest ruler. he's been ruling 30 years. i suspect he feels confident che rule other eight, nine months

and wait out donald trump. >> thank you so much. next on gps, is russia's president putin setting himself up to rule russia for 30 years or even more? he made political moves this week that have people talking. we will discuss when we come back. don't want to wait weeks for your tax refund?

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trading places. in 2008, russia's deputy prime minister dimitri medvedev was named president and he unseated vladimir putin as his prime minister n. 2012, they switched back. this was putin's way of staying in power. this week, putin made another move analysts see as a way to ensure he could perhaps rule russia forever.

the dust hasn't settled. on wednesday, the entire government resigned included medvedev. they named a new prime minister, the democratic leader of the nation's tax service. what does all this mean? is there a master plan? joining me are anne applebaum, a historian pulitzer prize winner and a staff writer at the atlantic and alexander gaboria is a senior fellow at the moscow center. he joins us from the russian capital. put this in perspective for us. it is a big and kind of slightly precarious mystery, russia seems to be the only country that is ruled in a way that nobody understanding what the -- understands what the structure and succession is. if xi jinping leaves office, we assume the communist party would elect another person. if a monarch dies, you know who

the heir apparent is. with russia, we have really kind of only putin and we don't have a system, so there is -- it's understandable that the speculation is very, is important, which is what happens after putin? >> yeah. i think it's important to make three points. one of them reflect what is you just said, namely that all the best experts will start by saying we don't really know what this means. he may be signaling people we don't know. there are very, very few people who are close to putin now. he may have a plan that he hasn't revealed yet. just with everything you hear about this, you have to start with that caveat. the second point is that although this is styled as a constitutional and governmental change, it's clearly putin has declared it by fiat, in other words, it's not a coons institutional change like have you in a democracy where there is national debate and voting and so on. this is putin saying, right, i'm

changing the constitution right now, it's interesting he wants to preserve some democratic forms and language. the word constitution helps give him legitimacy, really he's telling us he will decide what's next. the third point which you also alluded to, is that this looks to most people like putin doing, planning for the future. he's created a new state body that he can be the head of after he leaves the presidency. he's juggled around the powers within the system, so that he can go on, staying in control, even after he leaves office, he's included some roles actually that limit russian's access, ordinary russians access to international law. he seems to be saying the world can kind of back off of russia. he's included a couple of roles that say the next president of russia can't be somebody that spent time abroad. >> that seems like it's intended to eliminate some rivals. yes, he is planning ahead for the end of his current term,

which is in 2024. >> yes. much closer, a close analyst of what's going on, how do you read there? >> i think that's a first shot in a longer game, which will probably take a decade so putin is on his way out. but he wants to remain in charge as long as he's active. what's important that he signals, he will leave the office at 2024 and he will not come back to the kremlin as a president. so he will be in charge, but he will not be in the throne or on the throne, but he will be somewhere above the throne. and the second point is that the next president will not be another vladimir putin. >> that will be not somebody who can carry on to swap jobs with his prime minister or anybody else, there will be very firm term limits now on and six years and that about it. so he could not pull the trick

like he did with dimitri medvedev in 1968. i think we should see that in a broader context of putin planning to architect his legacy. he is both an authoritarian leader who cares about what happens to him and his family and his friends. but he also feels a sense of historic responsibility as a russian leader. he believes he has made russia grit again. now it's time to set the clock moving into some normalized power transition. >> and one could read it this way, could one not, that putin has wanted to rule as an absolute ruler, but he is now putting in place a structure that has some checks and balances? parliament does seem to have more power, state council, presumably. is this possibly a scenario where after putin russia will become a lit more liberal, a bit

more democratic? >> i think if we begin with the point you made to start out with, namely that there is no succession process in russia, then you have to wonder whether that's true. the fact of the smatter when putin is gone, we don't know what will happen next. there isn't a rule book and even putting this in place doesn't mean that the people who were in charge at the time will follow it. i would also say, another explanation for these moves is that putin is increasingly unpopular. he may need some scapegoats to explain to the russian people why, you know, why the economy isn't growing as fast as it was, why, is there still a lot of discontent about infrastructure and pensions and so on. this is a way to say, right, i've gotten rid of that old government led by famously corrupt actually dimitri medvedev, now i have somebody else. this may also be an attempt to kind of prolong his rule by placing the burden of government on someone else. >> alexander, the one sign that

might be pointing to something, you know, that is telling is the new prime minister is this bureaucrat who apparently has a very good reputation for being both relatively clean but also very efficient at you know tax collection and things like that. so do you read anything into that choice? because that guy is going to be prime minister? >> i'm not sure that he is that clean and already there are many investigations done by alexander novali, one of the opposition leaders and many others which shows some wrongdoing. i don't believe many russians believe that anybody at the top on the minister level and above is 100% clear. that's probably impossible in the russian system. the choice is between a very or more efficient bureaucrat by the russian standard or absolutely ruthless, inefficient bureaucrats who are there because they are very loyal to mr. putin.

and mickally mistustin is efficient by the russian standards. i think he is seen more as a technocratic leader, a technocratic prime minister who could be a better leader of the government. at the same time i wouldn't say for medvedev that that's a demotion. he will be putin's deputy in the security council and if you read carefully putin's statement when he announced medvedev resign and will be given any role, i think that's partly removing him from a popular job that could make him very popular to a new job that will probably make his reputation somewhat better and allow him to be putin's successor in 2024. that's one of the opportunities that mr. putin wants to keep many options opened and he has this potential. >> well, thank you both for trying to unravel what was famously called about russia the

riddle wrapped in the mystery inside an enigma. next on gps, what can we learn from the last decade about what might happen in the next one? a lot it turns out, that story when we come back. i use rakuten to get cash back in-store and online. rakuten is free to sign up and it's in over 3,000 stores. i use it to buy makeup...

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plus, save even more with $100 off galaxy a50. click, call or visit a store today. now for our what in the world segment, one decade ended. a new one has begun.

it's an excellent chance to take stock at where we have been going and what are the trend and what can we guess about the future? we dig in with our friend, head of emerging markets and chief global strategist at morgan stanley. you have these amazing charts. the first one is in you look at the investment theme by decade, what you notice is for the 20 -- for this last decade, it's america. right. we started the financial, global financial crisis. but by the end of it, we've come out of it we come out of it better than anyone else, i say we the united states. >> yes, when you look at this cart, every decade in post-world wore ii history, one theme dominated the economic and financial landscape and the 2010s was really all about america. in two ways. so america shared the noble economy actually increased from 23 to 25%. now you can say, that's not much of an increase, given what people thought that america was

going to do at the turn of the decade when there was so much declinism of america. this is a surprising outcome. in financial terms what we have seen is just out of control. because they're seeing the american stockmarket, over the last decade go up, multiple times, compared to any other stockmarket or major countries of the world. >> in fact, you have a chart that shows this, right? >> that's right. and so china, for example, that's one thing people ask me, why was it not china's decade? china did end up increasing the shares of the global economy significantly from 9 to 16% n. financial terms, china matched the united states. so when it comes to stockmarket returns, when it comes to the use of the u.s. dollar in the international system, the u.s. completely dominates in a way that no other country does, in fact, the dominance of the u.s. today is so complete that the u.s. share in the global stockmarkets today is 56%.

>> and part of the explanation is the next chart, which is technology, right? if you look at the returns by industry, technology is, by far, the biggest. we think this is normal. but there is actually not normal. from one sector to be so dominant? >> yeah, for the last decade, which is the 2000s the exact opposite happened, which is you can flip this. at the bottom of the chart, all the commodities this is what the world taught at the turn of this decade that those are the sect o, that are going to dominate the world that choirn needs much more commodity, it will consume these commodities. africa will boone, instead we got technology came back in a big way and america dominates de at the gate. seven of the largest companies in the world today by market value are technology companies. american. >> what you are describing is a part of the great income and equality. so when you look at the political effects of this, have you the great chart about the

share of right wing and left wing pop you list parties and what you see is far from waning, actually populist voting is going way up. >> right. this is a dominant train across the world. they're seeing much more polarization, we see parties in both the left and the right come up. so this could be the result also of this great financial imbalances we are seeing, it doubles from a thousand to 2000. so this may be feeding into all of this. but, yaeeah this chart is telli the last time we got this was the 1920s and '30s so that is somewhat worrying to me. but i think this explains a lot of the trend from increased polarization to also now increased calls to do something about the fact that income and equality and wealth and equality is so extreme so this could be something which you have as to watch for the counter attack. >> so i want to close with this

one, very interesting chart you have, when you took those six hot feeds decade by deck they had. then you asked yourself, how did that hot feed, technology, or japan, how did it do the next d.c. cade? in other words, was one decade of prominence a good predictor of how they did the next? what you found is the median performance of a hot trend was actually negative 11, in other words, the basic model seems to be here, nothing lasts forever. >> right. and especially in decadent terms, when something is very hot, the next decade it is never that hot, in fact, it almost gives up the entire out performance that it has compared to the rest of the world so this is my sort of big concern here, that, yes, we had a green decade for america. this has been america's decade, but we may be at peak america. >> that if you look at the coming decade, what's going to be hot this decade will be very different. that within the one lesson of

post-world war ii history, never extrapolate based on what happened in one decade. >> fascinating as always, thank you. next on gps, the devastating fires down under. what does politic versus to do with it? actually quite a bit. i will talk to australia's former prime minister kevin rudd when we come back. some of my best memories growing up

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well, less than 20 days into the new year and already the news of the climate is devastating. we learned 2017 was the hottest on record. the ocean is warming at five hiroshima bombs dropping every second and then there is, of

course, the tragedy down under. after an extremely hot, dry spring, the driest on record, wildfires have burned now in every state in australia. the area that has burned is larger than belgium and denmark put together. more than two dozen people have died as a result of the fires, more than 3,000 homes have been burned. and an australian professor has estimated more than 1 billion animals have died in the fires. yes, billion with a b. and perhaps not surprisingly, there is a political angle here. for that i want to bring in kevin rudd. he's a former prime minister of australia, now the president of the policy institute. kevin, this is in a sense the underside of australia's miracle. australia has grown without a recession for what is it 25 years? >> 28. >> 28 years. but at the heart of that, it has been a fossil fuel extraction

economy, a lot of coal and other things, right? >> well to some extent, fareed. i mean, the energy sector in australia has been important, lng and are you right to natural gas as well. but, of course, there are other sectors there is agricultural, information technology, tourism, financial services. it's not just a coal story. but the truth of the matter is, that for the better part of a tech cade now, we've had continued conservative government in australia, which is run a gender of climate change denial reenforced by their partners in crime, the media in australia. the climate change debate is intensely polarizing in australia. like it is in the united states, like it is, frankly, in few other countries. and as a consequence, it becomes very hard to, a, introduce

measures, which measurably reduce greenhouse gas emissions and, b, transform our economy over time and, c, take out proper place as leading global climate change action in the councils of the world rather than as a current conservative government is doing, which is undermining global consensus on climate action. >> you hood a former prime minister tony abbott, weeks before the fires began explaining, you know the left in australia had been taken over by a cult of climate change, lyingening it to religious, is that kind of thing difficult now, given the extent of the damage? >> i think former prime minister abbott and his political party, the what's called the liberal national party coles in australia is now having to look at itself very closely, go everyone the sheer magnitude of these fires. i grew up on a farm fareed.

i know what bush fires are like, every decade or so we'd have a big one. but none of us, repeat, none of us have seen anything like this, the politics of fear around let's call it the cost of climate change action has been well mobilized by the conservatives in murdock and australia just as well mobilized in the united states by the conservative itself by the ecochamber or fox news. >> explain the role of the murdock press in australia. we are more familiar with fox news and such. >> well, the actual corporate heartland of murdock's global empire, news corporation, australian. murdock earns 70% of the print media in australia. one television network as well, and, of course, a very big online presence. and so, therefore, for any political party to negotiate their future in australia, like mine, the australian labor

party, which has been committed to climate change action for the last 15 years, it becomes very heavy whether indeed when every day in every capital city in australia, the equivalent of the new york post or the london "sun" unleashes its broad side against you for daring to propose to increase renewable energy use, to decrease carbon use, decrease energy efficiency. it's been not just an assault in australia. but it has had an effect on the global consensus on climate change. as you said through murdock's power reflected in fox news in america. >> when you look at the politics in australia, what lesson do you draw for the united states? which as you say has a similar and unusual for a rich country, large climate denial political movement, media movement? >> well, what you've seen if australia was predicted by our scientists, 10, 15 years ago,

the commonwealth industrial research organization, csi said, climate change would produce in southeastern and southwestern australia, deeper, longer, more intense droughts coming earlier in this season, more intense and destructive fibros. the northern tropical half of the country, we will see wild weather events, cyclones and the like, huge storm damage and the rest. >> all of which is happening. now, look at america. our mediterranean climate that we have in southern australia, frankly, is like california. and so, when you see these massive fires in australia, to our friends in california, i'd simply say, get ready for much more than you've seen. i looked at the tropical parts of the united states, subtropical part of australia, the coastal inundation, the impacts of wild weather events. we seen what happened with hurricane activity in recent years, more extreme or frequent. the physical cost, the economic

costs, the financial costs, the social costs, the health cost through fires and inhaling smoke is of massive proportions. i'm watching the program, ring up your local insurance company and ask what is the cost of premiums for ensuring against extreme weather events, the flood, fire? why? climate. >> it's only going on and on. >> thank you very much. up next, how good are you at predicting the future? are you a so-called super forecaster? we want to know what you think is going to happen in 2020. will donald trump be re-elected? will iran and saudi arabia go to war? stay tuned. (burke) at farmers insurance,

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. the new year has started

darkly over concerns with a potential war with iran and the sta fires over australia. some alternaturn to television analysts. we wanted to turn to everyday people. i introduced viewers to the concept of forecasters, average individuals with a higher than average ability to forecast the future. they had their answers aggregated by a company called good judgment which has since expanded into a public prognostication platform. then two years ago, good judgment asked you, the fareed zakaria gps audience, to judge for our global challenge. nearly 700 of you went online to participate in that challenge, weighing in from 149 countries with 41,059 forecasts.

you accurately guessed that ammad bin salman would remain crown prince of saudi arabia until october 1, 2019. the next one, will justin trudeau remain prime minister of canada after the federal election? his numbers fell from 85% to 55% over the next two months. despite that, trudeau held his position that never dipped below 50%. when the house first authorized impeachment proceedings, forecasters only thought there was an 18% chance that president trump would be impeached by the year's end. not convicted, just impeached. the numbers began to tick up as the house heard revealing

testimonies, reaching 60% when house speaker nancy pelosi requested that articles of impeachment be drafted. i was wondering, what were the other 40% thinking? if you think you can do better, and if you want to try your hand at predicting the future for the coming year, go to gjopen.com/fareed. what do you think the next year will hold? will donald trump be reelected? will saudi arabia go to war? will there be a vacancy in the supreme court? tell us what you think. again, this is gjopen.com/fareed, and always tune in to gps as we stay up to date on these questions and more. if you're interested in catching that segment on what it takes to be a supercaster, you can go to my website at cnn.com/fareed. see you next week.

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hello, everyone. thank you so much for joining me. i'm fredricka whitfield. right now house impeachment managers are meeting on capitol hill. the meeting comes as we're less than 48 hours away now before the senate impeachment trial of president donald j. trump. that trial is expected to get underway tuesday afternoon, but arguments are already being played out in the court of public opinion. last night house managers who essentially act as prosecutors in the trial delivered their brief, arguing why president trump should be removed from office, calling president trump's conduct -- i'm quoting now -- the