this is "gps the global public square." welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from paris. today on the show. >> here yee. >> the president on trial. the united states senate is supposed to be the world's greatest deliberative body. as it lived up to that billing this week, i will get views from around the world. also some terrific interviews from davos. i sat down there with the president of iraq. when we talk, barham salih had

what he called a candid conversation with donald trump. he did tell trump to get american troops out of iraq? and carrie lam, the chief executive of hong kong. she's stuck in between beijing and the protesters. will china send in the army or will it give it to the protesters' demands. thank you, mr. chief justice. >> we'll get to my take in a bit, but right now on saturday, the impeachment trial of donald trump in the united states senate went into its next phase when the president's lawyers began their defense. at this point there is no expectation that trump will actually be removed from office.

in the end, this is an essentially party line vote which means the president will remain in the oval office. but how is the world watching this whole spectacle. joining me now in london, zani, the editor of the economist. in tel aviv, martin, a long-time diplomat including two stints as u.s. ambassador to israel, now a distinguished fellow at the council on foreign relations. in buenos ayers the former secretary of singapore, a distinguished fellow the at university of singapore. zani, you were at davos as i was and you saw lots of people around the world, sort of a good cross-section of global elites i suppose. what is your sense of what they are making of this impeachment? >> to be honest, i didn't think they were paying a huge amount of attention to it. the outcome is all but foregone.

they are moving beyond that and i was struck not only at how little attention was being paid to the impeachment trial but quite how many people seemed to be taking almost as given that there might be a second term for president trump. the mood i think certainly amongst the business types in davos was get ready for a second term. literally no one spoke to me about impeachment. >> i remember the founder of singapore once telling me that singapore's survival and prosperity depended, above all, on american power and the strength of american power, to create a balance in asia to maintain a balance, and so in asia, how are people viewing this? is this something that is exercising them one way or the other? >> well, i think they're not watching the ups and downs in the various process, but they are asking a much more

fundamental question, a question that franklin mr. lu would have asked if he were alive today, is this just a temporary downturn in american politics like watergate, like the impeachment of bill clinton from which america will bounce back again, or does this reflect something new that perhaps the american political system has become structurally dysfunctional, so polarized that america will remain so domestically destructive and as a result of it, as mr. lu would have anticipated, the u.s. will pay less attention to the rest of the world and we have to adapt and adjust. i can assure that that's the lens through which most countries are watching this to see how much profound, long-term effect it would have on the united states behavior towards the rest of the world. >> that's a great point,

kishore. martin, leaders in the middle east whom you know so well, the prime minister of israel, the president of egypt, the crown prince of saudi arabia, the crown prince of the uae, all have personal and very strong ties with trump. do they worry that they are living in a kind of post--american middle east where ther e going to have to freelance? does this make them worry about that? do they worry about this as a political circus and trump will be stronger than ever and their relationship is fine? >> i think you're right, fareed, that the actors that you've mentioned all have a big stake in donald trump's survival and, indeed, his re-election. his policies are broadly in the middle east, are broadly welcomed by them. however what they worry is not impeachment but the fact that united states is, in fact,

retrenching from the middle east and that trump's determination to end america's involvement in wars in the middle east could lead to a withdraw from this region by the very president that they much prefer over any democratic alternative. here in israel, where israelis regard trump very positively and they've been the beneficiary, they are preoccupied with their own kind of impeachment trial. the prime minister, netanyahu, facing indictment on bribery and breach of trust and fraud charges is about to come before the knesset for immunity that will be debated at the very time that the impeachment process is going on on the floor of the senate. in that regard they're not paying any attention to the impeachment. they're focused on their own

process here. zanny, you mentioned people are looking at trump and say he's p presiding over a good economy, he will probably get a second term. that sort of dealing with the issues of economics and the state of the economy, did you talk to anyone concerned with the long term issue of the democracy or challenges to the democracy? we heard about that a year or two ago, but my sense is for some reason that has kind of gone away and the issue of the american economy really outperforming everybody else has over ridden concerns that american democracy may be under performing in some sense. >> you know, i think it depends on who you talk to. certainly if you're talking to the business crowd, you're absolutely right. the focus was very much the strength of the u.s. economy. but i think there is a concern about the big changes that are

going on in america and one as kishore rightly put it, what is the longer term role that america wants to play. i detected actually a sense that people were resigned to the fact that whoever wins in november, we are not going to go back to the status quo exante. i think there's a recognition f of -- that america has changed. people are concerned about the erosion of american democracy and there's quite a lot of commentary about how many other, you know, sort of populist types around the world are looking at donald trump's playbook and are copying it. it's a fashion that is going well beyond the united states now. there are, you know -- the president loves strong men and strong men are taking, you know, tips from the president, whether it's the use of social media, whether it's the way he attacks the mainstream media. i think there's a sense in which, you know, people are looking at what's happening in the u.s., but they are seeing

that it is hurting the u.s. but are also recognizing this is something that is happening in other places around the world too. trump economic policy and politics if you will. >> very interesting point, zanny. hold on, everyone. we're going to come back to you. next on "gps" i will ask you about two urgent issues in the news. the chinese coronovirus that is worrying the whole world and trump's middle east plan. you might not have noticed but after years he says he will actually deliver it this week. my moderate to severe crohn's disease. then i realized something was missing... me. my symptoms were keeping me from being there. so, i talked to my doctor and learned humira is for people who still have symptoms of crohn's disease after trying other medications. and the majority of people on humira saw significant symptom relief and many achieved remission in as little as 4 weeks.

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paris. i'm fareed zakaria back with my all-star panel. zanny in london, martin in tel aviv, and kishore in buenos aires. the outbreak that has the world on edge. the trouble started in december when the chinese city of wuhan, the industrial city some call the detroit of china, wuhan is one of 15 cities in china current under lockdown and the outbreak is spreading around the world with cases reported in north america, australia and asia. xi jinping warned saturday that outbreak is accelerating and his nation is facing a grave situation. zanny, i wanted to ask you what you make of this particularly in light of the only real point of comparison we have which is the sars epidemic many years ago? >> well, i think it's changing very fast and as you say, it is enormously worrying right now and the numbers change all the time, but right now we have some

2,000 known cases of infection and some 60 people have died. what is very clear is that chinese authorities have reacted very differently to the way they did to sars in 2002. it may have taken a little while for the local authorities in wuhan to deal with it seriously, but now the chinese central government is dealing with it extremely seriously, being very transparent, sharing information in real-time. they've had, as you say, put in place this draconian lockdown, but the problem is, if you will, that china is much more interconnected than it was in 2002. just to give you one example, there are now something like 200,000 people fly into and out of china every day, which is six times more than it was in 2002. the ease with which -- the degree to which people are moving is different. it's really too early to tell what the impact will be. as you say, it spread to several countries around the world. it's the mortality rate as of

now and it could go up or down, is sort of broadly in the range of where the spanish flu was in 1918, but it could go way up, way down. we simply don't know yet. i think at the moment the most important message is that it's really too early to tell, but that the big change is that the chinese authorities do seem to be being transparent, decisive and acting in a way that they were not with sars where they covered it up for months. >> that's a fascinating comparison to the spanish flu because the acceleration rate is very dramatic. the spanish flu ended up killing millions. let's hope that doesn't happen. kishore, i wanted to ask you what the political effect of this will be, because so much of the chinese communist party's legitimacy has been based on the idea that it is very competent and a legitimacy in that sense, they have been very competent at

things like building roads, highways, planning special export zones, but this is a more complicated one, is it not? not only do they have to handle the kind of engineering of this right, the technocratic health solution, but there's probably also a political dimension here where people are going to be scared, there's going to be panic, people are going to want information. do you think that they are going to be up to this task of managing it not just as a technical matter but as a political one? >> well, as you know, when such outbreaks happen, in the phase one, you get complete bewilderment. it's something new. people do not know what it is. they don't understand why it's spreading so fast. i'll give you one simple example. when we -- singapore had the sars outbreak, just five people became super spreaders and out of 206 cases, 121 were caused by five people. that's an example of how you get in phase one when such an

epidemic happens. in response to your question about how is this going to impact in terms of perceptions of the chinese government, it's actually at moments of crisis like this that i think the chinese people appreciate the fact that they have a strong and competent government because if you are going to take care of something like this, which is going to be difficult, you need a combination of strong, political will, and a very strong well-established public administration apparatus. that's what china has actually developed over the last 40 years. the capability of the chinese government to handle such issues is much greater than its ever been and in terms of what it will do in terms of affecting the legitimacy of the chinese government, i think that the chinese government will be able to overcome it and when it overcomes it, people will say thank god we have a strong

government in place. as zanny mentioned, they have done their best to be as open and transparent as possible in keeping the people informed. >> we have to go, but before we do, i want to ask martin, what do you make of this peace plan that donald trump is proposing? is there much to it? we've got about a minute and a half, martin. give us your take. >> well, it may be a peace plan in great detail, but it won't make peace between israel and the palestinians. it's been concocted without consultation with the palestinians and it's tilt so clearly in israel's direction that there's no chance that palestinians will accept it. i think its basic purpose, because it's being launched now in the midst of israeli election campaign, at a time when as i said the prime minister is under indictment for serious charges

of fraud and bribery, that it's really designed, i think, to help him get re-elected. it's a peace plan that's morphing into a political plan to get netanyahu re-elected so he can help trump get re-elected. it's tilted in a way that is designed to ensure that at least trump's evangelical base will be supportive of it. so pro-israel there's no chance the palestinians will accept it and it will be very hard for the arabs, who would like to be helpful to trump because he's been helpful to them, will be able to come out in support of it either. >> great insights from all of you. thank you all. this was a great, great pleasure. when we come back, i will be in davos where i spent the better part of the week and i have some great interviews for you. the president of iraq, the chief executive of hong kong, all of that in a moment.

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. welcome back to "gps" coming to you now from davos, the site this week of the 50th anniversary of the world economic forum. let's start with my take. donald trump's speech here went over relatively well. that's partly because davos is a conclave of businessmen and they like trump's pro-business message. but mostly, the president's reception was a testament to the fact that he and what he represents are no longer unusual or exceptional. look around the world and you will see, trump and trumpism

have become normalized. davos was once the place where countries clamored to demonstrate their commitment to opening up their economies and societies. after all, these forces were producing global growth and lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty. today davos feels different. despite the fact that across the world that growth remains solid and countries are moving ahead the tenor of the times have changed, where globalization was once the main topic, today it is the populist backlash to it. this is not simply atmospheric or rhetoric. morgan stanley investment management points out since 2008 we have entered a phase of deglobalization. global trade, which rose almost uninterruptedly since the 1970s, has stagnated, while capital flows around the world have fallen. net migration flows from poor countries to rich ones have also

dropped. the shift in approach can best be seen in the case of india. in 2018, prime minister modi came to davos to decry strongly the fact that many countries are becoming inward focused and globalization is shrinking. since then, his government has increased tariffs on hundreds of items and taken steps to shield india's farmers, shop keepers, digital companies and many others from the supposed dangers of international competition. the office of the u.s. trade representative recently called out india for having the highest tariffs of any major economy in the world. the economist notes that europe, once one of the chief motors for economics and politics, is also rediscovering is state intervention to prop up domestic industries. and if you think the internet is exempt from these tendencies think again. the european center for international political economy tracks the number of

protectionist measures put in place to localize the digital economy in 64 countries. that number has been surging for years, especially since 2008. it's important not to exaggerate the backlash to globalization. as a 2019 report by dhl demonstrates, globalization is so strong and by some measures continues to expand. people still do want to be connected to trade, travel, and transact across the world. but in government policy, where economic logic once trumped politics, today it's often the reverse. the cumulative result of all these measures, protecting local industries, subsidizing national champions, restricting immigration, is always to zap economic growth. this phase of deglobalization is being steered from the top. the world's leading nations, as always, are the agenda setters. the example of china, which has shielded some of its markets and still grown rapidly, has made a

deep impression on much of the world. but probably deeper still is the example of the planet's greatest champion of liberty and openness, the united states, that now has a president who constantly calls for managed trade, more limited immigration, and protectionist measures. at davos, donald trump invited every nation to follow his example and more and more are complying. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week. we'll get started with the rest of the show in just a moment. when we come back, the president of iraq on his country's intention to expel american troops. how did that go over with president trump? coverage of davos 2020 is brought to you by -- you've tried so many moisturizers...

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when a u.s. drone took out iran's top general qassem soleimani, america greatly upset not just iran but iraq. you see, not only was soleimani killed on iraqi soil, but many in the west seem to forget that killed alongside the general was an iraqi paramilitary commander. days later iraq's outgoing prime minister said u.s. troops had to leave iraq and its parliament voted to expel american soldiers. president trump threatened serious sanctions in response. this week, trump met with his iraqi counterpart barham salih here in davos. right after that meeting, i sat down with the iraqi president to ask him how that conversation went. >> mr. president, pleasure to have you here. >> thank you for having me, fareed. >> you said that you had a

candid conversation with president trump. that sounds like diplomatic camouflage. how candid was it? did you explain to him that the iraqi parliament has passed a resolution asking that u.s. troops leave and what was his response? >> to be fair president trump does not mince his words and he's direct and candid. these are very important times. we had a candid conversation, a very serious conversation, and it was a good opportunity to basically explain the dynamics. the iraqi parliament has issued a decree calling for all foreign troops to leave. the united states and president trump has always said it is up to iraq what it decides what it needs so long as this is done

with respect and in the proper ways. this is something that the united states and iraq need to sit down together. this is my conversation with him, that we have a decision and we have a new dynamic and we need to sit down and have a dialog, at the heart of which the sovereignty of iraq, respect of the will of the iraqi people, and protecting the hard stability of iraq should be the main emphasis. >> there are many people in the united states who worry that were u.s. forces to leave, both symbolically and actually, it would result in greater and greater iranian influence in iraq? >> iraq and iran are neighbors and no iraqi wants to go back to a state of conflict or war with iran. we have had too many wars. iraq and iran must maintain good relations based on a state-to-state relation and recognizing this should be both good for iran and for iraq, that

any effort, by the way, to undermine iraqi sovereignty -- and this is the message i want to say and many have tried to in the past -- this is not working. iraq is a proud nation and iraqis don't accept anything less than full independence and full sovereignty. they want to have good relations with iran as i said. they don't want to go back to a state of conflict with iran or undue iranian influence or for that matter influence from others is unacceptable. we do see this affirmation of iraqi sovereignty, iraqi patriotism. iraq has been toyed with for far too long and iraqis want to reclaim their homeland and assert their sovereignty. >> there are people who say qassem soleimani was a hero, there are people who say he was a terrorist. which was he? >> qassem soleimani was quite

quite an icon for iran and the national security system. i want to be fair as we evaluate these matters i have referred to this on many occasions, qassem soleimani was there during the war against isis. he was with the iraqi forces, different iraqi forces, in different regions of iraq. ironically at the time, when you had american drones and american planes providing support missions for some of these military dynamics, so -- during the war with isis, many competing elements in the middle east, many conflicting parties in the middle east came together in iraq in order to defeat isis. >> the u.s. strategy as far as one can tell toward iran seems to be, squeeze it, more sanctions, more pressure, and the idea is, either they will agree to a much more substantial

nuclear deal with much longer time horizon, perhaps including ballistic missiles and the like, or some people believe it's an attempt to actually overthrow the regime. which do you think it is and will either strategy work? >> i think at the end of the day, iran is a major geopolitical act in that part of the world. if you look back at where -- why the middle east and the mess it is in now, i can go back probably to the iraq/iran war, the collapse of regional orderer, one thing left to another, and we are moving from one conflict to the other. at the end of the day, my urging this part of the world has been a headache for everybody, many people might have thought it is their battles and they can finance it by themselves and we have seen the scourge of extremism coming out of here and plaguing the entire world. this region needs to be fixed.

we need a new regional order. this cannot be done without the iranians. this cannot be done without the turks. this cannot be done without the arab world coming together. seriously, if you look at the geopolitics of it -- and i hope you don't accuse me of being iraq centric -- it is iraq. this has always been the case. >> aren't we in a dangerous moment, though, because the u.s. is tightening the pressure, the iranians -- >> it is a dangerous moment. >> the iranians do not seem about to capitulate. couldn't that then lead to another miscalculation and another military conflict? >> i think the environment is so unstable, so dangerous, we all need to be worried about concerned and certainly in the case of iraq -- and i go back to iraq as well -- iraq is very fragile, very precarious. the stability that we've wired after years of conflict against isis was not easy.

it could easily unravel. we are already seeing signs of isis coming back. the implications of the conflict in syria, the dynamics in idlib are all very, very serious. we are now talking about the regional conflict at the same time the issue that has consumed us all over the past few years, namely isis and terrorism, is beginning to come back and i'm sure if we are not careful, this is going to plague us and will make us face an ugly reality. yes, fareed, this is a dangerous moment. the middle east does not need another conflict. >> did you tell this to president trump? >> we had a very good conversation with the president and we had a very candid conversation and the need for basically restraint, calm things down, this is not the time for another conflict. >> president salih, always a pleasure. >> thank you, my friend. next on "gps" hong kong's leader rarely gives interviews

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it's been a tough year for hong kong's chief executive carrie lam, the eleb elected head of the chinese territory. it calls its policy, one country, two systems and hong kong is much more liberal and democratic. last march protests broke out over a law that some hong kongers saw as a threat to their freedoms. over a series of months the protests grew, organizers say almost 2 million people marched at the biggest protest on june 16th of last year. then in the waning months of 2019, the protests grew increasingly violent. in recent weeks hong kong's turmoil may have been off the

front pages, but chief executive carrie lam's problems are not going away. the protesters say they will not stop until their five demands are met, her approval rating hovers around 20%. i sat down with carrie lam at the world economic forum for a rare opportunity to hear her side of the story. i saw somewhere that you said you weren't sure what protesters were still protesting about in hong kong, given that you have withdrawn the extradition bill and made clear that it is a dead letter. from my reading of the situation, they're protesting for other things now. independent police commission, a kind of full democracy that they were protesting for during the umbrella protests. of course your resignation. so at this point, it seems as though, you know, there is this irresistible force of the protesters with a lot of public support and there is the

immovable object of carrie lam. what is going to happen? >> well, let me first put it in the hong kong context. we are very used to protests and demonstrations. we have absolutely no problem with peaceful demonstrations against anything under the sun, whether it's myself, my government, a livelihood issue, lack of affordable housing. but on this particular occasion over the last few months, what we have seen in hong kong, which is totally unprecedented and unfamiliar to us and every one of you who knows and loves hong kong, is that high degree of violence, that total disrespect for differences in opinion, that people were beaten when they hold a different opinion from some of these protesters or rioters. so to simplify all these protests as just fighting for democracy and for continued

freedoms, might have underestimated the situation. similarly for the governments to provide a political response because the protesters or the rioters wanted to see a particular response, would not be a very prudent way of ensure hong kong's future and public interest. so every political demand has to be fully assessed, against principles, one whether it goes against the principle of one country, two systems, that is important with hong kong's continued stability and prosperity, and also whether it will continue to enable us to preserve the rights and freedoms by everyone in hong kong, not just the protesters and rioters, but what about the bystanders and the families of policemen who have been intimidated an harassed throughout these months. another principle is the rule of law. demand the chief executive to ask the secretary for justice, to grant an overall amnesty to

everyone arrested, over the last few months, is totally inconceivable in the context of a rule of law, which we hold so dearly in hong kong. finally, i could not agree to demands that simply will destroy hong kong's well-funded institutions, whether it is the judiciary, the law enforcement agencies, the mass transit railway cooperation, which is represented in my delegation, the airport authority, and even the freedom of the press. >> but if one views it just from this very technical point of view, it seems to me it misses this larger up surge that seems to be happening in hong kong, than it is about the fundamental issue of will hong kong have what the protesters regard as genuine democracy, it seems that they have an enormous amount of public support, you know, if you look at the mass rallies, if you look at public opinion polls and if you look at the most recently

elections, right, 17 out of 18 of the constituencies flipped. doesn't that tell you this is something larger and that it has to be dealt with in a more funn fundamental way? that people are scared what makes hong kong special is going to go away? >> i would agree wet you in a free society like hong kong there is something missing, genuine democracy, in my terminology that is democracy that is within the constitutional framework, because hong kong is not a state. hong kong is a special region within the people's republic of china. we have a basic law that on the one hand gives us the freedoms, the independence, the judiciary, on the other hand it has certain safeguards to make sure that the constitutional development is something that is acceptable within that contest. >> you mentioned that you think

that these freedoms will be guaranteed by the central government in beijing. can you on the basis of your conversations with them, say that they have categorically ruled out a tiananmen square style crackdown in hong kong? while people focus on what has happened in hong kong, i will tell you something that has not happened in hong kong in the last seven months. there's massive bloodshed on hong kong streets that some wanted to see has not happened in hong kong. the presence of the people's liberation army on hong kong streets has not happened on hong kong except on one occasion where they came out to do voluntary work to clear the blockades on the roads, that the media -- >> that has passed. do you guarantee it won't happen in the future? >> as i said if everybody is committed to one country two systems like what the central

government has, then one country, two systems means all the freedoms and rights. >> if you could talk to the protesters, if they were listening to you right now, what is it you want to say to them? >> treasure hong kong. we can sit down and talk, but please treasure hong kong. don't destroy hong kong. >> carrie lam, pleasure to have you. >> thank you very much. coverage of davos 2020 is brought to you by -- knowing you're on the right path isn't always easy. that's why it's important

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a japanese minister made headlines recentlily when he announced he would be taking two weeks of paternity leave. japan mandates the public and private sector both offer at least 52 weeks of paid leave to new parents both men and women. but in 2018, only 21% of eligible male public employees applied for any amount of such leave, and the private sector that number was just 6%. japan's generous 52-week paid leave policy for new fathers is actually the second highest in the oecd. it brings me to my question, which oecd country offers the most paid leave to fathers? switzerland, south korea, the united states, or finland? stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. my book of the week is an escape into fiction.

i read it on the plane. "city of thieves" set during the siege of leningrad, a gripping story of the adventures of two young men given an impossible task set in one of the worst moments of world war ii. benioff is the screenwriter for "game of thrones" and "troy" and reads like a screenplay, a very, very good screenplay. the answer to my challenge is b, south korea, which offers 52 weeks and 10 days to japan's 52 weeks. how did this happen in two notoriously workaholic countries? both south korea and join face record loafer tillty rates, so the governments are betting expanding paternal leave policies can help expand a shrinking demographic. it's an approach that may bear fruit. twice as many south korean fathers took paternity leave in 2018 compared to 2016. only time will tell whether the

strategy encourages parents to bear more children. if you guessed switzerland, you should know it is one of only six oecd nations to not the offer paid leave to fathers. another it will come as no surprise is the united states the only developed country in the world not to mandate any maternity leave either. not the proudest moment for american exceptionalism. thanks to all you have for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. i'm brian stelte. our look at the story behind the story, how the media really works, how the news gets made and how all of us can help make it better. this hour as the impeachment trial goes on, brand new polling from fox news that contains some bad news for president trump. has he seen the poll yet? plus, we will take you to capitol hill to show you what you are not seeing during the senate trial come. that's our inside view. plus we're going to as