philadelphia. that head line might sound ill-timed, given that it was published at the end of a week that brought finalitity to a process whereby donald trump regardless of the senate vote, joined just two president of the united states predecessors who will be tarnished with being impeached but that was david brooks' analysis in "the new york times" one of which he said politically speaking this was probably trump's most successful week. and brooks wasn't alone. >> you can't get around it. this was trump's best week ever. if you see trump on fifth avenue with a gun, walk the other way. >> david brooks pointed to the president's all-time high in the gallup approval rating. that the impeachment process never seemed to spark a ground swell for the president's removal. plus in the caucuses in iowa, no one seems transsentenced.

and they can't nominate bernie sanders because he's too far left. and they can't not nominate because his followers would bolt from the biden/bloomberg led party. and after he went to press with that column, the january jobs numbers came out. they were released and revealed more healthy growth. 225,000 jobs in january. that's 65,000 higher than economists expected. now, common sensically, you might think this bodes well for the president because it will enhance his standing among swing voters. you know, the 15% or so of american voters who are not wedded to any party and who the candidates spend inordinate money and time to persuade especially in the swing states of pennsylvania, michigan, ohio.

my next guest is a professor in virginia. she's earned a ph.d. in political science. in july 2018, she correctly predicted the win in the house almost to the number. besting most veteran political bolsters and pundits. she believes that swing voters are overrated. and today, her election model tells her that democrats are in near lock for the presidency, and are likely to gain house seats and have a decent shot for retaking the senate. she joins me now at the niskanen center. a think tank and author. first props, 2018, you nailed. what did you see that others missed? >> well, you know, mainly, i think the main crux of my election research is that this isn't your granddaughter's electorate anymore. and i think that's one thing

that the brooks type you know, pundits mass pundits masquerading as experts. they missed this. and the electorate has changed. so it made my forecast work so good at forecasting, well in advance of the election day in a big, big wave that was coming was understanding how polarization had affected mass voter behavorial. and also how the two party coalitions had changed over time and shaped themselves into two tribes in the polarized era. so, i was able to anticipate exactly where the turnouts just were going manifest in exactly which house district. some of them were obvious. the other onanalysts were able pick up on the fact that clinton districts, districts that clinton carried were going to be hard to hold.

but there were another 20 beyond that, romney performed in that suburbs that trump cast in on. >> rachel, i spent a big amount of time both on radio and here looking at focus groups of swing voters. voters who have gone from romney to clinthillary clinton. voters who went from barack obama to donald trump. you say they're overrated, why? >> i want to make something really clear. i don't get the right articles about me. the head line says there is no such thing as a swing voter. my research does not make that claim. swing voters just as important is turnout. and the reason in the polarized era, you know, very few people in the independent group are

actually truly persuade only. most independents will admit that they lean toward one party or the other. and they have their vote decided already. they're going with that party they lean towards so it leads to pure independence. those are the people you're talking to in the focus groups. yes, they exist, but if you ask them, many of them also voted for bush, right? so what they are predominantly are lower information, civically minded and not passionate about issues and usually unhappy with the status quo, so they're change voters. ultimately, they're going to break 60/40. and we're talking about in the margins just a few points on the overall scheme of things. on the other side that turnout differential could be quite sharp and the reason why midterm model was able to predict so much of what was going to happen would anticipate at least a ten-point turnout surge. and that's exactly what manifested. we're going to see the same

thing happen in this presidential election. >> okay. are you telling me that right now, your models show, regardless of the democratic nominee, that the democratic candidate will be heavily favored to win back the white house? take my final 60 seconds and defend that? >> yeah, i say on the forecast released on july 1st, 2019, that the nominee doesn't matter. but there is, of course, variation, how much of a margin the democrats want to win by and how much sweating out they want to do. and i do point out that bernie sanders because he'd be an ideolog ideologue. since barry goldwater is say risky pick. it's a path that no one has tried. it is a path that is impossible under the chuck todd electoral version of the electorate that is gone. now, donald trump -- think about it donald trump is the president, guys, if you don't think bernie sanders can win a general election, just go look at the white house, right? >> well, rachel, what occurs to

me, what occurs to me, you are arguing, your model, you say shows that democrats have a strong likelihood of winning the white house, because to simplify, it's turnout. it's not about persuasion. >> yes. >> what occurs to me is the person who follows your model is donald trump because you look at the way -- >> yeah. >> the way he spoke in the white house this week, that's all about the base. take my final 30 seconds to finish up. >> and i'm literally putting out an analysis. in three weeks in the "new republic" that is going to show everybody visually through voter file analysis of the 2018 house election exactly what i'm talking about in terms of the turnout, about making districts reach parity in percent democrat versus percent republican and surging out a surge of stiffer independents than the ones voting for republicans. and also it's going to show that donald trump's base mobilization

strategy bore fruit. the republican turnout did not decline the way it did for democrats under the obama era. it went up. donald trump's efforts to stoke the base is definitely looking for him. >> dr. rachel bitecofer, you'll come back after you publish. what are your thoughts, tweet me @smerconish. kathryn, what do we have? coming in from facebook. swing, or just independent think thinkers. never up for grabs. just like blacks are not always democrats. so many assumptions made buy pompous fools? tony, is that directed toward me? look, i think her theory is interesting. the theory being the victory lying not so much with the persuadables, however many they may be. but it's always about base mobilization. and as i just said to my guest, the president certainly is following that model. for all of the condemnation of his remarks in the white house this week, think about who his intended audience really was. the people that he needs to keep

in the tent. one more, if we have time for it. this comes from twitter. smerconish, why don't you just say you're a trump supporter or fan at this point? kayann, like what the hell? i just had a guest with a ph.d. in political science with a theory that she advances that says right now the democrats are pretty much a lock on the white house. and you're paying half attention. and your takeaway on that is that i'm carrying the president's water. get it through your head. i'm not carrying anybody's water. by the end of the show, i'll hear from people who saw it exactly the other way. i want to know what you think, go to the website @smerconish con.c .com. was impeachment worth it? was impeachment worth it? up ahead, seven democrats went head to head in last night's crucial new hampshire primary debate. who scored? who faltered?

a debate expert and i will share our respective report cards. >> and three of us were jurors in that impeachment hearing. you said it was exhausting to watch and that you wanted to turn the channel and watch cartoons. it's popular to say, it makes you look like a cool newcomer. i don't think that's what people want right now. we havenewcomer in the white house. and look where it got us. they see what others don't, from an angle others won't take. they learn that embracing those challenges is what sets them apart. i am justin rose, and we are morgan stanley. wean air force veteran made of doing what's right,. not what's easy. so when a hailstorm hit, usaa reached out

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the biggest risk we could take at a time like this would be to go up against the fundamentally new challenge by trying to fall back on the familiar. or trying to unite this country at a moment when we need that unification. when our opponent is saying if you don't go all the way to the bernie is labeled himself, not me, a democratic socialist. that's the label that's going to weigh on bernie if he's a nominee, and mayor buttigieg is a great guy, and you're a patriot. he's the mayor of a small city who has done some good things, but has not demonstrated his ability like a cool newcomer, i just -- i don't think that's what people want right now. we have a newcomer in the white house, and looksay, you have toe experience to take him down.

for the typical americans. amy klobuchar said i know you and i will fight for you. it is by far the most effective exclusion. amy klobuchar had a great half. debate. remember to watch that,

everyone. >> you and i part ways on former vice president joe biden. i gave him a "c" grade. you gave lihim an "a"-minus gra. dr. graham, from my perspective, he came out showi ing vim and vigor. he's trying to convey too many thoughts. he ought to go with one theme. why did you rate him so well last night? >> because he did. this is the same criticism i've been making debate after debate. i haven't given him any grades yet because i think he's been average. i did think last night, joe biden did simplify his answers. i think he came out with what i'm calling energetic anger. he defended the policies of the past better than he has in my previous debate. i'm afraid other people might be grading him based on, well, he needed a really great debate. he needed a knockout punch. but that's not joe biden.

the question is how was joe biden in that one debate, if you take away everything else, frankly, was better than before. he defended violence against victim act. he defended the same-sex marriage. he defended all of the good things in the past while reminding us, obama was just a start with him, he has more places to go. i do think joe biden had the best debate yet. >> here's another one to disagree. i love this, you have a trained professional eye. you are a trained coach. i was on the sofa with a beer last night. on tom steyer, we part company. i thought it was his strongest per performance. dr. graham, i thought he broke out with the best performance. >> the one thing, he stuck with his criticism of you have to beat trump on the economy.

as you recall, he began that with the previous debates. i like the idea he knows trump's offense will be i'm doing well with the economy. you to be able to debate and beat trump at that argument. steyer in the first half of the debate was doing well. while i dinged him, he made a basic debate error. he brought up an issue without explaining it. he tried to attack joe biden apparently one of biden's surrogates had said something that was perhaps racist this week. over two questions, steyer kept bringing it up without explaining it or making a point. what was he expecting to us do all of a sudden think that joe biden was racist? what did he want joe biden to do, stop his campaign? but if you're going to bring up something like that, you have to explain it, i don't have time to google what you're talking about and find out who is right or wrong. complete your thought. he didn't complete that thought

and i thought it looked petty. >> i have to say, i know the moment, i know the two times he went back to the well on it. and i have to agree what you just provided in terms of analysis, thank you, dr. graham, excellent as always. >> absolutely. >> i want to remind you to answer the question at smerconi smerconish.com. was impeachment worth it? up ahead, for the 2020 democrats there's no way to the white house without the support of african-american voters. for joe bidened that support was beau buoyed his candidacy. but for pete buttigieg what does it mean for him and the field at large? that's next. >> are you saying that he has the same sex partner? kidding he's hears. yeah. so can i have my card back? kinge sweet and simple.

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pete buttigieg and bernie sanders essentially tied for victory in the iowa caucuses. according to the most recent polling data, they are again battling it out for top position in tuesday's new hampshire primary. this, despite the fact that former vice president joe biden continues to be regarded as the national front-runner. but if biden fails to come in first or second in new hampshire, there will be a momentum shift? the bedrock of biden's support according to polls has been his standing in the african-american community. take a look at this. this "washington post" ipsos poll from january shows that he's polling more than 25 percentage points ahead of the next candidate among black democratic leaning voters. now, note that mayor pete is at just 2%. does biden risk losing that support among people of color? and does mayor pete have a shot

winning black voters? joining me now is espn host and sports and culture journalist at the l.a. times, lz granderson. he wrote this piece about buttigieg in may of last year. democrats, america is ready for a gay president. lz, that's the $64,000 question. if joe is not one or two on tuesday, is there going to be a momentum shift? is he going to lose support among people of color in nevada and/or south carolina? how do you see it? >> i see it as a reflection of one of the flaws of this process to begin with. you said it yourself, if you know you need the support of the community, why are we dictating what the narrative is on any candidate when african-americans haven't had a say in the process. it's a flaw. >> well, it's a flaw because

it's unrepresentative of the country at law. awe stop and think about how a number of candidates of color are already out and we haven't even gotten to nevada or south carolina. but the question i'm asking is one of will supporters of joe biden hang with him if he takes it on the chin on tuesday? >> well, again, you're looking at two states that are the majority white. and south carolina, the vast majority of the motors there are african-americans. so it's hard to say that a group of voters are going to change their minds based upon someone who doesn't reflect their own community, has to say about a particular candidate. you know, joe biden gets the benefit of the doubt for a lot of reasons. name recognition goes a long way. his connection to president obama goes a long way but also the fact that he's proven. that's the point, a lot of african-americans are looking at something practical. they don't want to take their chance to someone.

they want someone who is a known commodity and joe biden provides that. >> lz, if i put up on the screen, the latest numbers for 538 for south carolina, flipping ahead to a few weeks. joe biden with a commanding lead. pete buttigieg down at the bottom of that ranking. there was in the summer, a revelation of a focus group commissioned by the buttigieg campaign. we can put that up on the screen as well which is pretty stunning. being gay was a barrier for these voters, particularly for the men who seemed deeply uncomfortable even discussing it. it was not necessarily a red line that they wouldn't cross but their preference is for sexuality to not be front and center. is there a problem that he faces? is this explanation as to why his standing among voters of color is so low? >> well, i don't believe so. you know, you talk about the piece i wrote back in may. when i wrote that piece, when you read it, you see that i'm

actually talking about the internalized homophobic of lgbtq people. not heterosexual. i've been to a number of fund-raisers where they question if pete buttigieg is a good candidate because he's gay. again, these are gay lesbian asking the question. it's goes far beyond heterosexuals. with that being said, pete buttigieg has a lot of problems at home. just like with bernie sanders in 2016, if you can't get people to cosign you at home, it's very difficult to get people to cosign you away who don't get an opportunity to know you who have not been around you for years. the way pete buttigieg handles the situation with his police chief was disturbing. i asked pete directly about that question. i'll be honest with you, michael. i like pete. i think he's a smart guy. i think he's very brave. i appreciate his service to the country as a serviceman and

local official. i think some people discount him being a local physical. whether a state or municipal requires to you govern every single day which makes you even more qualified in my opinion. however, the way that he handled the situation with the police chief echoes of someone who can sympathize with someone in the african-american community but not emphasize. no one who can emphasize, know the long history and then handle that situation the way that he did. >> that's the subject that came up, i'm sure you know, in last night's debate. bottom line, you are attributing his current poll number among people of color more to the policing issue, i'll describe it as, than to sexuality? >> absolutely. we just saw the viral video that went out from a voter in iowa. a white whoman in a state

demonstrating homophobia. not necessarily race. i'd say the reason why pete buttigieg has been dragging simply because when you go back to south bend, and i was a freelance reporter for south bend, i know the area relatively well. for him not to be cognizant of how him handling the police chief was going to play out, particularly the fact that he was trying to expose racism within his own police department it just rings of someone who has a prominent blind spot. but i will add this, he has proven to be a highly intellectual individual. i believe he is sincere in trying to address the blind spot. the problem is he's trying to address it running for president of the united states. again, that reigns hollow. >> lz, thank you as always. folks, don't forget to answer the survey question@smerconish.com. very simply, was impeachment worth it?

results at the end the hour. still to come, there were seven candidates on the stage last night in new hampshire but is the candidate to beat actually the one not there, the wake of the iowa caucus, mike bloomberg's strategy seems smarter than ever. wrinkles just won't. neutrogena® rapid wrinkle repair's fastest retinol formula works so fast. it takes only one week to reveal younger looking skin. making wrinkles look so last week. rapid wrinkle repair® pair with retinol oil for 2 times the wrinkle fighting power. neutrogena®

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have laser drilled holes. they release medicine fast, for fast pain relief. tylenol®. is the democratic candidate to beat the one who wasn't on the debate stage last night, taking advantage of the iowa caucus debacle, mike bloomberg has doubled his spending on television commercials. he's spanned his field staff to more than 2,000 people. he's garnering endorsements for the wide range of folks intruding trump's own former secretary of the navy, republican rick spencer. rock star john mellencamp, and more than two dozen former u.s. mayors. he's touted a strong working relationship with president obama in which obama praises bloomberg's pragmatic approach. as bloomberg told a crowd in

pennsylvania this week -- >> i think the results underscore that we are a coalition strong enough to go toe to toe with donald trump and beat him. that's the coalition we're building and that's the candidate that i will be. >> joining me now to discuss is bloomberg campaign manager kevin sheekey. last night, kevin, elizabeth warren was asked about your candidate during the debate. she said this. >> i don't think anyone should be able to buy their way into a nomination for be president of the united states. i don't think any billionaire ought to be able to do it. and i don't think people who suck up to billionaires in order to fund their campaign ought to do it. >> after the debate, she was asked the follow-up question that elicited this response. >> you said you will support the nominee whoever it is. >> sure.

>> if it's up to you, would you take his money? >> sure. what i believe is that we should not be, this isn't for special meetings or my issues. this is about how our democracy should work. >> she doesn't want mike bloomberg buying his way into the election, but she'll take his check if she's the nominee. react. kevin? he's not hearing us. kevin is not able to hear us. we're going to try to connect with him. oh, sugar. we'll take a quick time-out. we'll come back in just a moment. now there's new powerwash dish spray. it's the faster way to clean as you go. just spray, wipe and rinse. it cleans grease five times faster. new dawn powerwash. spray, wipe, rinse.

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joini ing me now to discuss mike bloomberg's role post-iowa is campaign manager kevin sheekey. sorry for the snafu. i rolled some video of elizabeth warren saying she doesn't want mike bloomberg buying his way on to the debate. saying that, we asked elizabeth warren if she would take his check, she said yesterday. >> he was around the country, competing against donald trump in the states that are going to be competitive. h he has changed the rules going forward, to say if you have 10% or more of democratic voters you should be on the stage. i don't know anyone who suggests 1 in 10 supporters, or more, 20%

or 30%, shouldn't be on that stage. so mike bloomberg should be on that stage. when it comes to november, democrats need to unite to defeat this president. in all six battle ground states, he has signed the leases through november. so the folks that work for him will be knocking on those doors and not persecuting that case, trying to win that election, regardless if he's the nominee or not. >> a number of milestones are chartered the campaign ascendancy. donald trump is very rich, and those betrayed by the system part of his winning coalition, what evidence is there that 50 billionaire mike bloomberg can get the votes of coal miners in west virginia, autoworkers in michigan, gun owners in pennsylvania? >> well, i think there are two reasons. listen, mike bloomberg was the mayor of new york city for 12 years.

he ran for election three times. and won all three times. it is america's most diverse city. it is america's largest city. and took on the city when it was on its knees after 9/11. and built it back creating 400,000 jobs in new york. not just jobs on wall street. but mike bloomberg came with a five borough plan to bring jobs back to immigrants for people who have moved to the city and lived here for generations. what americans want is someone who can create jobs, who can be a steady president. that's who mike bloomberg has always been in his life. answer that's what mike bloomberg will bring to this country and definitely the type of people you talked about people want particularly in states that are important to the election like michigan, pennsylvania, arizona, florida,s where. i don't see anyone on that stage

last night that brings that. >> are you sure you're going to make the stage february 19, and are you certain you want to be on that debate stage? >> well, i'm not certain of anything in life. i am certain that mike bloomberg is probably one of the top three candidates nationally now. if you look at national polls. i think he has taken the strategy that you saw very early. it's an unique strategy, saying can we run a national election and ignore states that quite frankly are among the small states in the country, not particularly diverse and certainly not reflective of the electorate that we'll have to win in battleground states. there's no question in my mind that mike bloomberg is competitive. there's a new poll out this week that shows mike bloomberg beating donald trump by more than any candidate in this race. certainly, at least in that poll, which is in that regard, the strongest candidate against donald trump i think he'll be an

extremely strong candidate in the primaries. >> kevin sheekey, thank you for being here. with other centrist candidates can joe biden's opening, deval patrick below 1% but in the wake of biden's poor showing in iowa, a super pac has but $600,000 into south carolina's media markets where the democratic primary is dominated by black voters. could he make a dent in biden's dominance there. here's out patrick described himself on twitter. former poor kid from the south side of chicago, civil rights attorney, two-term governor of massachusetts. business leader and beekeeper. deval patrick joins me now. which do you think i find most intriguing? >> michael, i'm guessing beekeeper. >> yeah, i'm allergic to bees,

by the way, i cannot hang out with you when you're up to that. but that is something i'd like to see. so, governor, if you had been on that stage last night, how would you have distinguished yourself? >> well, look. all of the candidates in the race, on and off the stage, have great plans. i have results. i'm the only one in this field who has actually delivered health care to 99% of the people i was elected to serve. i'm the only one in the race whose actually developed a nation-leading model for responding to climate change. the only one in the race who has been responsible for lifting along in collaboration with many others, lifting our commonwealth out of recession to a 25-year employment high. it's not about -- it's not about the differences in policy approach. frankly, most of us have very, very similar ideas about what it is we want to do about particular kinds of challenges facing the american people.

but the experience of building coalition to actually deliver change, that is different for me than any of the others in that race. and those same coalitions are what get us success in november. i've been making that case very, very -- i have been making the case individually around new hampshire. >> game it out for me, what is the deval patrick lane? how do you pursue this to victory? >> the lane is a leadership lane. i'm not trying to talk to just one sort of voter or frankly even just democrats. i'm not trying to be president of the democrats. i'm trying to be president of the united states. and i'm trying to demonstrate that i can and do have very strong convictions around progressive goals and destinations. but i have enough confidence to let others in. so we need to make that case and make it effectively here in new

hampshire and have that reflected in the vote, not at the polls but in the vote, and on the strength of that to move on to nevada and south carolina. and that's very much what our team has been focused on. we've got outreach now to 100,000 new hampshire voters, direct contact that we have made and we're working very hard to get that vote out tomorrow -- excuse me, on tuesday. >> governor, godspeed to your wife. i know that she's well and had a cancer fight. and that's the reason that you got in later. politically speaking, is that more advantageous? in other words, had you gotten in when everybody else has gotten in, that field has now faded. you're there potentially to pick up the chips if all of a sudden things crumble. >> well, that wasn't the plan. i mean, these are really great people who had to step away from the race and they contributed a

lot. life is what happens while you're making plans. i will say i have not spent the last couple of years making myself famous, but i spent the last 40 years making a difference. and that goes beyond my team as governor. my work in business, my work founding a business, my work as head of the civil rights division and as head of the civil rights lawyer. i can point to real people, real families, real communities who, because we've worked together, have a better path forward for themselves. to me policy is not that interesting in the abstract. it's interesting for me where it actually touches lives. and being able to point that habit of practice and behavior, that style of leadership, that is a differentiator and i hope that the people of new hampshire and elsewhere will have a chance to take a good, close look at that. if they want someone who knows their way around d.c., i'm not their guy. but if they want someone who

knows their way around a business, around a family or farm or a town, i am their guy and i can point to ways in which i have and will do my very best to make a difference in their future. >> do you make your own honey? >> i do -- well, the bees do it. yes, it's an incredible stay to step away from the grind of the rest of life and just get on nature's clock, which is a pretty great way to relax and reflect. >> thank you, gov. >> thank you, michael. thank you for having me. still to come -- your best and worst tweets and facebook comments. and we will give you the final results of the survey question from smerconish.com. simply, was impeachment worth it? ou use it on monday, by thursday, you'll be enjoying that chocolate ice cream again.

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at smerconish.com. was impeachment worth it? survey says -- 79% yes. wow. look at the staggering number of votes cast. 19,279. although it's kind of like a rorschach test. you can read into why do people think it was worth it given how it ended? here's some of the social media reaction from this week.

impeachment made him stronger. andrew, that was always the quote/unquote risk for democrats. %-p know, the line from -- i always attribute to omar in "the wire." you come for the king, you best not miss. they came for the king, they missed. here's another one -- i can analyze that thing for the next hour. first of all, my soy latte was only $4. not $8. i'm joking. i don't drink soy latte. i get it. he's surr perceived as a fighter for the middle class and that's why i asked the question for bloomberg's campaign messenger. he's ascended right now but is he going to resonate with coal miners in pennsylvania?

will he register with gun right activists in pennsylvania? that remains to be seen. join me for my american life and sold-out shows in manchester, new hampshire, raleigh, st. louis, and tickets available in scottsdale, arizona and bellevue, washington. thank you for watching. see you next week. good morning, good morning. it's saturday, february 8th. i'm victor blackwell. >> and i'm amara walker, in for christi paul. you're in the "cnn newsroom.." >> the democrat candidates are out making a final pitch this weekend. >> and the latest poll has bernie sanders leading with 25% and mayor pete buttigieg behind him with 21%. senator elizabeth warren and joe biden round out the top four. >> there were plenty of divisions in last night's debate. candidates were a little more aggressive, especially buttigi