so, are super delegates really undemocratic? i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia. five out of six of the democratic candidates were able to agree on one thing on wednesday night's debate. that the winner could obtain the 1,999 delegates to secure the nomination. not just a plurality. only bernie sanders disagreed. with so many candidates still speeting after iowa and new hampshire the prospect of any of them securing the nomination on first ballot is increasingly unlikely. politico is now reporting this, mike bloomberg is privately lobbying democratic party officials and donors allied with his moderate opponents to flip their allegiance to him and block bernie sanders in the event of a brokered national convention. the effort largely executed by bloomberg state-level adviser in

recent weeks attempts to prime bloomberg for a second ballot contest at the democratic national convention in july by approaching supporters of joe biden and other moderate democrats according to two democratic strategists familiar with the talks. get ready to hear more about superdelegates, a term of which election officials are guaranteed a role at their convention. it's an uniquely democratic phenomenon. and its origins lie in trying to offset populist nominations that can't win general election. it's a form of peer review. use of super delegates followed a tremendous shift from the nomination an affair strictly controlled by the party elite to one predominantly decided by party participation and the understand that an inherent risk was being taken. the party leaders feared their own voters nominating a

disastrous general election choice. and so super delegates were created to mitigate this risk as a hedge against the populist surge that would not survive a general election. the thinks was with more experience, understanding of the comphet tigs and concern for the long-term success of the party, elected officials and party leaders should maintain a say in the nomination. the debate moved from the theoretical to practical after george mcgovern was blown out in the 1972 election winning only 17 of the 538 electoral votes against richard nixon. an often repeated criticism of superdelegates is that their participation is undemocratic. but is that really the case? thought of one way these unpledged delegates actually function as a means of preserving maximum voter participation and enhancing the level of competition in the general election. the majority of super delegates are themselves elected.

moat are current or former members of congress. they're senators, they're governors, they're mayors who are selected based on their elected position. those who were not have been served within some leadership role within the democratic party to warrant the position. super delegates themselves have succeeded in mass election. they've served diverse constituencies. they've been with the democratic parties for an extended period of time or some combination of these traits. it's as a result of these positions that they represent the nomination choice of constituents. this year, super delegates won't have a say until the second ballot. that's a change instituted after the last convention which followed a primary in which super delegates overwhelmingly sided with hillary clinton and against bernie sanders. and now there are concerns over bernie's prospects in a general election against trump that is placing renewed emphasis on what super delegates might do on a second ballot in milwaukee.

here's somethings to consider. sometimes, the collective wisdom of the party establishment is wrong. as nate silver pointed out in the last cycle if 2016's republican nomination were contested under democratic delegate rules, donald trump would have found it almost impossible to get a majority of delegates and a floor fight in cleveland would have been inevitable. instead, he won an improbable victory. donald trump may be bernie sanders' best argument. i want to know what you think. should democrats nominate the candidates who arrives at the july convention with the most delegates even if it's not the required majority? joining me now is john brownstein, senior editor at the "the atlantic" where he recently wrote this piece, democrats went after the wrong guy. bernie sanders is the

front-runner, but voters still aren't treating him like one. ron, i read the piece with interest. what explained how they avoided sanders and traded all of their political weaponry on mike bloomberg. >> first of all, i read exactly your question, that is the question facing democrats. do they have to nominate on rise in mruplurality, but not in the majority. bernie sanders' cap is ultimately too small to win and ultimate result is to maneuver to be the last person standing against him on the theory that then you would have the majority of the party with him. the problem with that theory was demonstrated both by trump in 2016 and by what we are seeing now which is it is not guaranteed that even as a candidate has a majority of the party that is skeptical of him, that majority will ever coalesce, you know, a single candidate. even though the democratic rules

are not as favable to the front-runner as the republican rules, the reality remains you can win a higher share of delegates than your share of the vote, as long as your opposition is divided and many of those candidates don't reach the 15% threshold of a vote you need to obtain any delegate. >> that's a really important point. let's make sure everybody understands it. in other words, that vote, that lower than threshold vote then gets foldsed in with that which exceeded the threshold. and could in this instance, innur a sanders' benefit? >> right. on democrats on individual congressional districts as well as statewide. and only people who reach 15% of the vote are counted in the way those delegates are allocated both at the district and state level. take one example, if you have a congressional district where bernie sanders gets 20% of the vote, joe biden gets 15, bernie

sanders would get 60% of the delegates so that is why many democrats fear that if sanders kind of goes into super tuesday with a head of steam and the center does not consolconsolidae muddle in the middle, he could converge with all the way to milwaukee. without expanding the support beyond the roughly one quarter to one-third we're seeing in the results so far and in polling of the upcoming states. >> i recognize that we're only two states in. today, nevada becomes the third. but in ron brownstein's crystal ball, does bernie hear headed for a plurality, a majority or maybe neither? >> i'm going with conventional wisdom here. i think he's headed to plurality. the big question is can he expand his reach beyond what

we've seen so far? he's somewhere to a quarter to a third of the vote. he's doing very well with young people as he did in 2016. he's leading among blue color whites in the primary. and the most liberal. while hillary clinton was the dominant in latinos last time, sanders does seem to be the leader in the latinos. almost all states with big latino populations, texas, california, florida, colorado and arizona are all voting between now and march 17th. it's entirely possible that he will come out as a substantial lead in delegates. absent the coalition he has thus far, he's got an uphill climb. you get to the issue not only of superdelegates whether the other candidates if trailing if they cumulative have a majority to come together in a way to deny him the nomination and whether

the party can sustain that kind of turmoil. >> so, on that subject which was also the focus of my opening commentary. let's put up on the screen what senator sanders tweeted. and have everybody take a look. here's a radical idea. the person with the most votes should be the democratic nomi e nominee. isn is it that simple, ron? >> he didn't say that in 2017. he said that the superdelegates should take him because hillary clinton could not win the general election. look, the rules are the rules. all of the other candidates said on the debate stage, the rules are that someone has to get to the majority. if sanders gets close to the majority through the primary process, it's almost inevitable that support will drift towards him and he will end up as the nominee. with all the kind of roll of the dice that represents. the real question is is there some kind of cutoff. you know, in the mind of not only superdelegates but other

candidates. with sanders, 40%, say, of the delegates do you have to dominate him? if buttigieg and biden come together to make 50%, could they come together? i think it would be explosive to pick a nominee who finish below the delegates. it's hard to make that case. you do wonder if we get in an scenario that the democrats will look at someone as possibly a unity candidate who is not part of the whole process, understanding how difficult it is to parachute someone in. >> who can that be? who has not been part of the process other than -- >> there are -- shaerrod brown, from ohio, is someone who is a bridge. >> okay. i thought you were thinking hillary. >> no, i'm not thinking hillary. look, all of that is very speculative. the core question of the democrats is one they have not faced since 1952 which is what do you do if someone arrives with a plurality and not the majority. one other point noting, donald

trump in 2016, bill clinton, '92, decaucus in '88, kerry in '04. you're ahead, often the coalition collapses in the final third of the primary season. it's possible if sanders has a big enough lead he could get to a majority. right now, if you look at the polls this week, he's still in 25% range in many of these states that are coming up on super tuesday. that, again, because the rules we talked about might be enough to give hip a delegate lead. but it doesn't show that the resistance in the party, the concern in the party is breaking down but, again, as in 2016, trump was in a very similar situation for a while. unless that resistance coalesces to a greater extent than so far, he will have kind of the upper hand in the delegate race. >> ron, that was excellent. you have framed exactly where this thing stands. thank you. >> thank you, michael. today's nevada caucus could be where bernie sanders establishes himself as the clear 2020 democratic front-runner. back with me is megan mehserle,

political reporter for the nevada independent. megan, thanks for being here. is nevada ready to tally this vote? >> that is the big question, adding into the day. i've been talking with volunteers and campaigns. and i think it's fair to say that tensions are high. you know, folks are cautiously optimistic. they hope that the results will work. talks with campaigns late last night that the party has been sending, rather, early vote data to them. just the names of volkswagen that have early voted to check them off the list and not having to do the last-minute phone bank for them. and the campaign had not still received that data as of 11:00 p.m. last night. they were promise that data yesterday. we have concerns about is the data processed? is it ready to go? are we going to have those early voting totals at the caucus

site? folks are hopeful but a little nervous, i would say. >> this is a bit of a hybrid system in so far as you've had four days of early voting and today is the caucus. what if someone voted earlier i know there's been confusion wrote, say, bernie sanders as their one, two and third choice? >> right. that was actually a subject of much confusion in the early vote process. folks were not sure whether they could submit three different candidates or but bernie across the ballot. if you chose it three times it would still be counted but essentially it would be the same if you left the caucus. this happened in an actual caucus room where you align in support of one candidate and you ultimately don't stick around. your first choice is not viable. so it would essentially be counted the same way in the process. it's not like your vote goes

somewhere else or the candidate that's automatically selected. it just means that those folks who chose to vote for the same candidate three times, their second place vote won't go their. >> sanders lost to hillary clinton by 5.4, he was expected to lose by double digits, you correct me if i'm wrong. he's the presumptive front-runner today, and tonight. >> it definitely is, like you mentioned bernie sanders had so much momentum behind him in 2016, more than anyone attempted him to have. he was 20, 30, 40 points behind hillary clinton in the polls leading up to nevada's caucus. as you mentioned only finished five points behind her. that was a victory for him. he's had that enthusiasm going into the caucus. a strong team on the ground. 250-plus staffers. much more than any other

campaign staffers. as far as second place, i think you're right there, michael. this is a battle for second. stakes are high for candidates, for instance, joe biden who did not finish well in new hampshire and iowa really needs a second-place victory to show that he can stay in the race. a lot of folks are clamoring for that as well, pete buttigieg in iowa and new hampshire, he would love to see a second place victory in nevada. elizabeth warren who had a middling performance in the first two states would love that second place as well to prove she has the staying power in the race but we really have no idea how that's going to shape up today. >> the only thing we know for sure, you have a long day ahead of you. >> i do. >> thank you so much for coming back. >> thank you, michael. >> thanks, megan. what are your thoughts, tweet me @smerconish. i will read it throughout. smerconish, stop trying to justify superdelegates you are a corporate puppet, you don't even

realize. all right. i shouldn't be so dismissive, come on, look how nasty that is. i'm a corporate. you pe you. y you puppet? put that camera on me. you know, there's some street smarts inherent in this. hey, let's put in a secret sauce. and the secret sauce will be people who have actually won elections. because they know a little something about it. and so if you got this populist movement in the country that nominates someone who can't win a general election, we've got the wisdom of the party elders whose own names have been on the line, to hold back the masses and say, wait a minute, this may go the way of mcgovern. and if you were paying close attention to my opening commentary, what i also said is, sometimes, the party wisdom is wrong. because if republicans -- i'll say it flat out -- if republican has superdelegates in 2016, i

don't think donald trump would have been the nominee. and obviously, we know how that ended. he upset the whole apple cart and won the white house. i want to remind you to go to my website @smerconish.com and answer the question, should democrats nominate the candidate who arrives at the july convention with the most delegates, even if it's not the required majority? up hapahead, the coronaviru has infected 77,000 people, killed more than 2300. we still don't know all that much about it. what can we do to stay safe, i will talk to america's point man on infect tuesdious diseases. plus, the president trashed the oscars for awarding best pictures like parasite. he misses movies --

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so what happens if more voters show up in 2020? conventional wisdom has held that lower turnout would help republicans, but a new study suggests that turnout could actually help the president. in 2016, 43% of people who were eligible to vote stayed home. that's about 100 million prospective voters. according to data aggregated by pret pretty c plittco, 3.5 in pennsylvania. president trump won those states

by 745747 votes. a new study suggests it's about all which nonvoters you get to the polls. joining me now to discuss a man whose company knight hired to do the study, per and ifernand ary. >> i credit the knight foundation for recognizing that this isn't a spring group of the american electorate, or potential electorate. this is 100 people people out there, 1 out of ever 3 americans. the fact that we have this comprehensive, authoritative look at it from a data perspective i think did demystifies the convention out there who these people are and more importantly, what their preferences are when it comes to candidates for office. >> okay. i believe there's a perception

that they're largely dormant democrats. is that true? who are they? and why haven't they voted? >> that certainly is the concession. i'll confess to having thought that as well. and the beauty of doing a study like this, it reveals what the science is. it found that with the voters given the opportunity to vote in the 2020 election, 33% said they, they would support the democratic nominee. but 30% said they would go with president trump with the balance of what you call persuadable or undecided. it's a pool of democrats and it presents an opportunity for either side to really engage on a rupp that politicals and consultants would say won't waste your time, don't go after nonvoters. the fact of the matter there's a

precisely advantageous tool here. >> let's take a look at what happened in battleground states in the vaughn voter he known vo arizona, pennsylvania. arizona, 36, 31, pennsylvania, 36/28, virginia, 35/31. i should point out for completeness that michigan and wisconsin is within the margin of error. but the point here is, you correct me if i'm wrong, if the nonvoters come out, we may be left with a scenario where the popular vote margin for the generic democrat grows. but president trump is re-elected because of his success in battleground states. >> that's certainly a scenario that the data indicate may very well happen. but with one caveat to that. like anything, we know that a poll, even a poll as authorize they've and large as this one as a snatch out of a moment in

time, variables and circumstances could impact that. all things being equal, based on what we learned in those battleground states like arizona and florida, the trump campaign, as they engage that group of nonvoters suggests there may be a hidden potential advantage there that might defy what the popular vote ends up being. and certainly what the conventional wisdom says about who these voters are supporting. >> well, i want to put on the screen, brad parscale running the trump contain just put on the screen some about the most trump rally. i don't know if you can see this, he makes a point at this recent vegas rally they're gathering data. 32% of the attendees didn't vote in 2016. so, they're tracking these folks and obviously getting ready to try and drive them to the polls. you get the final word. >> well, look, i think the most interesting stat for me if you were to repeat exactly the conditions of the 2016 election again, donald trump would get

two percentage points less now, based on all of the voter changes and demographic changes. so his campaign is looking for a way to make up for that deficit. nonvoters could very well potentially be that margin of difference if they get to them early and first. >> per and ifernand amandi, tha. to my facebook page. dems win with higher turnout hands down. they need to concentrate on battleground states. arnold, dare i say maybe you fired that off on facebook where hearing the entire segment. the conventional wisdom is simplistic, get more people to vote it will be a rising tide for democrats. not necessarily, if you rise the nonvoter participation in the battleground states, as per the data that we just showed, you're actually potentially increasing president trump's margin in certain of those critical states

and, thus, may leave the scenario where the generic democrat wins the popular vote by even more than hillary did but loses the electoral college. a remind go to the website @smerconish.com. please answer the question should democrats nominate the candidate who arrives at the july convention with the most delegates, even if it's not the required majority? up ahead, what should we make of the latest cultural uproar triggered by the president attacks the oscars for naming the south korean fill "parasite" best picture?

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. president trump debuted a new rally line thursday in colorado springs where he slammed the south korean movie "parasite" for winning the best picture at the oscars. >> and the winner is the move

from south korea, what the hell was that all about? we've got enough problems with south korea, trade, on top of it, they give them the best movie of the year? was it good or bad? i don't know. let's get "gone with the wind," can we get "gone with the wind" back again. "sunset boulevard." >> tweeted in response, understandable, had can't read. the two movies trump refers to parasite gone with the wind picked up eight oscars including the award for best picture. sunset boulevard won three oscars. what does the president's movie preferences say about him and his base? joining me now, nate jones who covers the oscar and the industry. nate, i feel like an outcast because i loved "parasite."

loved "gone with the wind." "sunset boulevard" i saw glenn close on broadway do it twice. what's wrong with him. >> you can like all three movies. it's not a sign of bad taste or character. you don't need to choose between them unless you're donald trump in which case, live is about dividing up the world in two camps, us and them. it's clearly a way of him marking a way for his base. this is whole he thinks his base is. the idea that anybody who would vote for him would be -- would maybe speak korean or have korean heritage, that doesn't cross his mind. in his mind, his base is a bunch of people who really loves a movie that romanticizes the confederacy. >> i've heard that criticism. some say, look at the themes of these movies. look, when i go to the movies with my wife, i'm there for

gratuitous sex and silence. she gets the messages. do you think he was tapping into the messages of putting on a pedestal a civil war south? or was he simply saying to the same base that he went to nascar with, that he went to the college football championship with, i'm on your side and let's trash hollywood? >> yeah, i think that is a little bit of it. it's a cultural thing. it's like the way that barack obama got in trouble about talking about arugula. it's like talking to people. you assume this is a movie i haven't heard of so they haven't heard of it either all of these people who say it's good, they're the elitists, but we're the real americans. was he trying to make a racial point with it? i don't think explicitly, but it's an interesting subject when you get to donald trump. and sort of what goes on in his mind. >> how about "sunset boulevard," was there something that you

read into him wanting to talk abnormal out norma desmond's fl? >> yeah "sunset boulevard" didn't win best picture. donald trump is not a farmer, he's not a factory worker, he's a rich kid from new york who dreamt of being a hollywood producer. in his mind, he loves the glitz and glamour of hollywood. as much as he wants to pretend that he's real america. he's not a man of this world. he's a man of broadway, times square, 42nd street. a man who loves, you know, that kind of elitist lifestyle. yeah. >> and one final thought, if he were to see "parasite" he might actually enjoy some of the conflict that's inherent in that movie? >> yeah, exactly, yeah. this is a movie, i don't want to give too much of it away, it's a movie in which case, sort of

decadent probably liberal elites are revealed for this shallow nincompoops, and the salt of the earth working class just trying to make a buck. yeah, he would probably like it. everybody i know who has seen it likes it. maybe he would, too. >> i'm not giving it away. let's just say it takes some turns that i surely did not see coming. thank you, nate, i appreciate your insight. >> thank you for having me. what do we have from twitter and facebook? i think from twitter initially, smerconish, oscar win. trump is saying what others are thinking but are afraid to say. >> i think he's simply saying, hey, my base is not going to go watch a south korean movie with subtitles. let me hammer that and talk about when america was great and we recognize "gone with the wind" or "sunset boulevard." he should have come up with more

tempora contemporary movies. this is from facebook -- maybe not. trump supporters don't like subtitles. >> i like your last name, write. i want you to continue to answer question @smerconish.com, should democrats na s nominate the cane who arrives at the july convention with the most delegates. also ahead, the spread of the coronavirus, should we be concerned. i'll have the doctor who has been the infectious disease leader for more than three decades. because i can still make my own insulin. and trulicity activates my body to release it like it's supposed to. trulicity is for people with type 2 diabetes. it's not insulin. i take it once a week. it starts acting in my body from the first dose. trulicity isn't for people with type 1 diabetes

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joining me now, america's point man on infectious diseases, dr. anthony fauci, the director since 1984. dr. fauci, thank you for being here. i've got a half dozen straightforward questions that are beneath your pay grade so indulge me. what is a pandemic? and how do we know when we're in the midst of one? >> well, a pandemic is when you have a infectious disease that is being consistently and sustained transmission from person to person, through a wide range of regions, countries and areas of the globe. so, for example, in china, it's an epidemic because it's concentrated in china. but once you start to get other countries in which you have sustained transmissibility, then you really have the makings of a pandemic. "pan" meaning wide. it's widely distributed. >> do we have that on our hands now? >> i think, michael, that we are

clearly at the brink of that, let me explain briefly why. because our fate is going to be determined by the ability of countries outside of the china have travel-related cases. and now they're starting to develop sustained transmission from person to person to person. so that right now, it's not just travel-related cases, so when you get countries like japan and south korea that have these cases that are person to person to person without any real ability to point to where it came from, that's the makings of a pandemic. and if you have multi tiple countries like that, then the horse is out the barn. and it's going to be very difficult to prevent more cases from coming here to our own country. >> do you think that these cases all originated in the same place? >> well, the original midas of where they came from

unquestionably, as you mentioned, michael, is wuhan, china. and when individuals left wuhan and seeded in other countries then it takes off in a momentum of its own. but the original evolution of this unquestionably was from wuhan, in china. >> how much of a problem is transparency? >> transparency is absolutely critical. i mean, whenever you have information that's being held back, there always are negative consequences. nothing good can come of that. we have multiple examples, historically, when information was not fully available and transparent which really slowed down the response. so, that's something we would hope we want to have as much transparency as possible. >> should the known infected ever be flying with those who are not infected? >> well, michael, i think you're referring to the difficult decision that had to be made

when the "diamond princess" was, you know, evacuating individuals. we needed to get our people off that vessel which was just a hot spot of infection. yes, those individuals when they got on the bus, we found out after the fact that they were infected. but the difficult decision was made and, michael, i believe it was without a doubt the correct decision was to bring those people back to the united states. we had on the plane the capability of segregating them so that they don't infect other people on the plane and we successfully brought them back to the united states where they're being cared for, and more appropriate, they're being quarantined. >> two more and thanks for playing along. i really appreciate this. what is the means of transmission of coronavirus? >> it's a respiratory infection, michael, so it's very similar to what you see with influenza. respiratory droplets, perhaps

even aerosol, people touching their face, sneezing and coughing. you shake hands with them, you touch a doorknob or what have you. which is the reason why washing one's hands as often as possible is probably the best thing you can do to avoid influenza, and if and when we have the opportunity or unfortunate challenge of coronavirus, it's the same thing. >> and final question, dr. fauci, how much of a risk do those of us at home in the united states face now? >> at this particular moment, michael, the risk is very low. but, and i have to underline but, this could change and it could change rapidly. getting back to what you said about a pandemic, if this evolves into a pandemic, there's no way wee in the united states are going to escape having more in this country. >> that was excellent. thank you so much. >> good to be with you, mike.

>> dr. anthony fauci. still to come, your best and worst tweets and facebook comments. and we'll give you the final results of the survey question. go vote right n now @smerconish.com. should democrats nominate the candidate who arrives at the july convention with the most delegates, even if it's not the required majority? yes! yes. yes. yeah sure. yes yes. yeah, yeah no problem. yes. yes, yes a thousand times yes! discover. accepted at over 95% of places in the u.s. discover. wean air force veteran made of doing what's right,. not what's easy. so when a hailstorm hit, usaa reached out before he could even inspect the damage. that's how you do it right. usaa insurance is made just the way martin's family needs it - with hassle-free claims, he got paid before his neighbor even got started. because doing right by our members, that's what's right. usaa. what you're made of, we're made for.

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try to win by attacking, now, we know the trump strategy- distorting, dividing. mr. president: it. won't. work. newspapers report bloomberg is the democrat trump fears most. as president, universal healthcare that lets people keep their coverage if they like it. a record on job creation. a doable plan to combat climate change. i led a complex, diverse city through 9-11 and i have common sense plans to move america away from chaos to

progress! i'm mike bloomberg and i approve this message. responded to the survey question at smerconish.com this hour. should democrats nominate the candidate who arrives at the july convention with the most delegates even if it's not the required majority?

survey yes, what do we got, nearly 12,000 votes cast as of this minute, 76% say no. no. they should not give the nominee -- the nomination to he or she with the most, they've got to play by the rules, let the process play out. that was the answer given by five of six who were on that stage wednesday night, oven bernie will be disappointed in that result. what came in, catherine, during the course of the program, social media? i'm a lifelong dem but i will quit the party forever and never vote for dems again if super delegates deny the leader the nomination. but casey, get what, change the rules. then simply change the rules. the rules should then say whoever arrives at the convention with the most, right, not a majority but the most, a plurality could win, but that's not what the rules say. if that's the fix the democrats want then they should institute that change. it's just not what the rules

say. and, by the way, one other thought. wait. hold on. what if you had 15 candidates and what if the leader among the 15 were somebody with, i don't know, 22% of the vote, would you say, well, that has to be our nominee? i don't think you would. okay. hit me with another one. what do we got? if bernie would have supported hillary in 2016 and got his supporters to vote, trump would not be president. if bernie would have supported hillary and got his supporters to vote, trump would not be president. i thought you were going to make an observation about bernie having a different position on the delegate issue four years ago versus today, but you make a good observation nonetheless. one more if i've got time. what do we have? we need good movies to win, like "caddyshack," stripes, back to school. let me just think about that for a moment. you're leaving off a few, frank, and i would say off the top of my head what about "animal house"? what about "slap shot" what else

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good morning to you on this saturday, we're grateful to have you with us, it is february 22nd, i'm christi paul. >> i'm victor blackwell. you are in the "cnn newsroom." caucus day in nevada and in just a few hours democrats will meet and vote across the state. now, this is the third contest in the presidential primary season, but it is the first test in a more racially diverse state. according to several national polls, bernie sanders leads the democratic field, followed by former vice president joe biden and former mayor mike bloomberg. >> in the meantime there are a lot of questions about the caucuses and whether they will be smooth. among the major areas of concern here, integrating the early votes into the process there, how the calculator will count votes, and potential problems surrounding a last minute confidentiality agreement for so