this is "gps." welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to us you live from new york. today the coronavirus has gone global and so has the fear. markets everywhere have crashed. how bad can this all get? is there a solution? ul ask the experts. also a new era for afghanistan. will an american pullout change

the war-torn nation for the better or worse? we'll have a great debate. and while in new delawarely this week, president trump touted the religious tolerance of prime minister modi. >> he wants people to have religious freedom. >> but in the same city, religious clashes runned killing dozens of people this week alone. what is going on in india? we'll ask an reporter on the ground. but first, here's my take. i want to talk about bernie sanders, who is still, despite south carolina, the odds on favorite to win the democrat cannic nomination. sanders says his proposals are not radical at all, pointing again and again to countries in northern europe such as denmark, sweden and norway as examples of the kind of exhibition system he wants to bring to america.

but is he right about these countries? take billionaires. en sanders has been clear on the topic. billionaires should not exist, he says. but sweden and norway both have more billionaires per capita than the united states. inheritance taxes are zero and in denmark just 15%. america's estate tax is 40%. all the data i'm going to cite here comes from the nonpartisan tax foundation. sanders' vision of those countries seem to be stuck in the 1960s and '70s. a period when those countries were in pioneers in creating a a social market economy. in sweden government spending as a percentage of gdp doubled from the 19d 60s to '80s. but the swedish commentator points out this, permit in sanders style socialism tanked the swedish economy.

between 1970 and 1995 he notes sweden did not create a single net new job in the private sector. in 1991 a free market prime minister initiated a series of reforms to kick start the economy. by the mid-2000s sweden had cut the size of its government by a third and emerged from its economic slump. versions of this prop and these market reforms took place all over northern europe creating what is now called the flex security model, combining flexible labor markets with a strong and generous safety net. the first part of the model is key. ensuring employers have the flexibility to hire and fire workers easily without excessive regulation or litigation. these countries have to to stay extremely open erecting no barriers to free trade to gain market access and keep their local companies competitive. it's true these countries have a

very generous safety net and in order to fund it they have high taxes. what is often not pointed out, however, is that in order to raise enough revenue to pay for things like universal health care, these taxes were disproportionately on the poor and middle class. denmark has one of the highest top income tax rates, 55.9%. but that rate is applied to anyone making $1.3 times the national arch income. in the u.s. this would mean any income over $65,000 would be taxed at 5 a 5.9%. the biggest hit to the poor and middle classes in europe comes because they, like everyone, pay a national sales tax of 25%, much higher than the average u.s. also is tax of 7%. these countries raise more than 20% of revenue this way.

compared to only 8% of tax revenue in the the u.s. one final statistic. a 2008 oecd report found that the top 10% of the united states pay 45% of all income taxes. while the top 10% in denmark pay 26%. in sweden, 27%. this basic point is worth underlining because the american left seems largely unaware of it and it has only become more true over the last decade. the united states has a significantly more progressive tax code than europe. in other words, bring iing the economic system of denmark, sweden ask norway to the united states would mean embracing more flexible labor markets, light regulations and a deeper commitment to free trade. it would mean a much more generous set of social benefits to be paid for by taxes on the middle class and poor. if bernie sanders embraced all of that, it would be radical indeed. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed

and let's get started. america's longest war, so-called forever war may actually be ending. yesterday representatives of the united states and the taliban signed the agreement for bringing peace to afghanistan. the document sets a 14-month window for the u.s. to withdraw troops. it also calls for the release of 5,000 taliban prisoners. on the other side, the taliban promises to prevent terror groups from using afghanistan as base to threaten the united states and its allies. there's one absolutely critical party to any afghan peace who wasn't at the signing. the president of afghanistan. he may not have been there, but he joins me now from californka.

welcome, mr. president. >> it's a pleasure to be with you. >> the head of the media operations said this is a defeat for the arrogance of the white house and the face of the white turbine. is it a defeat for america? >> no, it is not. the narrative is false because there's been no military defeat. it's a political decision to end the war politically. not only is the united states not defeated, the afghan security forces are at their best, and in the the last seven months, it's been taliban b that have been losing. but our conviction that the war must end politically is what has driven this process forward. the victors of the war are no

one. the victorious of the peace are going to be the people of afghanistan. we need to drop that kind of arrogant language and move forward to discuss our differences in the ways we can come together as a eunited country, a united people and a united nation. >> the 5,000 prisoners who have been mentioned, as you pointed out, are not going to be released by the united states. they are under your authority. the authority of the afghan government. i remember when the united states released five afghan prisoners from guantanamo this was an exchange for beau bergdahl, there was an outcry. now they are asking you to release 5,000 taliban prisoners of war. before you even start the talks with the taliban s that going to happen?

>> president trump is not asking me to release these people. we have not made a commitment to release them. it's a sovereign afghan decision. we will discuss the question of prisoners as part of a peace deal, which has to be comprehensive, which has to discuss. the wording that is used there is that the united states would facilitate. we have made it very clear to the ambassador that the political capital in the consensus in the country that would be necessary for such a major step does not exist today. we need to see that significant issues, a permanent cease-fire, discussion of the special relationship of taliban to the countries that provide

sanctuary, especially pakistan. their relationship with all terrorist organizations, not just al qaeda. the relationship with cdrug cartels and most fundamentally, the basic rights of the people of afghanistan, the place of our security forces and our civilian administration are all discussed. it is very clearly conveyed to them that they cannot put preconditions. just technically it's not possible to release 5,000 prisoners. it's a pain staking process. each person needs to be checked and in return for what? we need to understand that the afghan people have to see continuous commitment, not a sense of false claims of victory

because all our forces and our government capabilities are intact. >> what you're outlying is much more ambitious. that is the reference to the sanctuary the taliban have in pakistan, which is not mentioned in the deal, which has been crucial to their continued viability. will you insist that that be dismantled? >> well, absolutely. if we're going to have sustainable peace, there needs to be clear commitment that they are going to dismantle their structures. the people of afghanistan need to believe that we have gone from war to peace and not that the agreement will be either a trojan horse of the beginningover a much worse phase of conflict. >> the deal envisions the taliban actually assisting in counterterror activities.

president trump says they are going to be killing a lot of bad guys. so far, the taliban has been regarded as one of the principle terrorist organization. they were the bad guys. do you really think they are going to flip and start killing bad guys? >> well, this is the billion-dollar question. and discussions within our states, they haves made verbal promises. in agreement with us, they have to make verifiable commitments. the verification is everything. we begin from divergence and lack of trust because we have been fighting each other. in order to reach trust, which is crucial, we have to have verifiable arrangements base d n verifiable mechanisms. they were not able to control

themselves. now they say that they will be delighted if they shifted. but we need to have verifiable mechanisms and we need the right type of international and national and regional monitoring so we can be certain that kmutmentes are made on paper are actually delivered on the gro d ground. >> mr. president, a pleasure to have you on. thank you, sir. >> thank you for the opportunity and let me thank the american people for their long engagement and for their belief in the rights of women and children and the support they have, tended. and let me thank the gold star families, whose loved ones paid the ultimate sacrifice. i hope the two democracies, an established democracy and

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healthcare, and programs that touch us all. shape your future. start here. learn more at 2020census.gov a book that you're ready to share with the world? get published now, call for your free publisher kit today! the united states has 13,000 troops in afghanistan. the agreement with the taliban calls for that number to drop to 8,600 and then to zero in 14 months. the question is is this swift pullout a good idea or a bad one? let me bring in an army vet and military historian, who is now the president of the quincy institute, to promote diplomacy instead of war.

he wrote the cover story for "harpers" on that subject. peterbergen has been to afghanistan a dozen times and is cnn's national security analyst and the author of a new book "trump and his generals." in a sense, you do believe this is a defeat for the united states. you wrote to that effect. but you're saying good riddance to a bad war. >> it has been a bad war. and i think it's been evident for quite some time that we need to liquidate the war. i'm trained as a historian, so my inclination is to look toward the past. if we say the afghanistan war is now coming to a conclusion, then it seems to me it's time for us to reflect on what in that regard we have suffered a major defeat. the taliban's purpose, stated purpose is to rid the country of

foreign troops. our purpose has been to defeat the taliban. we haven't. to create effective afghan security forces. we haven't. create a legitimate government in kabul, we haven't. curb the export of opium, we haven't. so our record of failure is pretty clear. and we ought to confront that. >> their objective, which is getting troops, will have been achieved. >> if they baif, they are going to achieve their objective. >> peter, you have lived in afghanistan. you know the region well. if the taliban eventually does manage to take over the government, which is what they clearly want to do through political and military means, are you sanguine of that prospect? >> i don't think they are going to take over the government. i think even without the uggs presence. right now they control the population. without al lied presence, the

taliban is going to do better. but i think you have a nasty civil war like you had in the '90s out of which the taliban emerge d but you have a stronge afghan army that was the kaz cayce that the time. you have a stronger. they have a lot of problems and they will -- i'm not convinced d they will behave. past behavior doesn't suggest they are going to magically turn into a set of democrats and not really abuse the population. so let's see. i was surprised by the 14-month deadline. that's pretty quick. if we're not there, nato won't be there. trump could lose the election. this is an agreement. this is on a senate rad if ied treaty. this is an agreement with a non-state actor. so a new president, if trump loses, to say i'm not going to be bound by this. >> but andy, the vietnam analogy does apply, which seems it's hard to unwind.

once we have decided to leave, once we have made that psychological decision, the country is exhausted. do you think if the taliban doesn't keep commit thements, the united states could rest or ratchet up the number of troops? >> no, and here's where the domestic political context really comes into play. the president has said over and over again that he intends to end our endless wars. he is now on the cusp of ending at least one endless war. as he looks toward trying to get reelected, he wants to deliver on that. even if there's a certain amount of backsliding by the taliban, he's going to be exceedingly reluctant to say, oh gosh, i made a mistake in signing this agreement and now i'm sending the 82nd airborne back in. this is not a peace agreement. it's a peace aspiration. but i think that at least as far as the trump administration is concerned, once we're in, we're in.

>> do you think, peter, when people talk about how this is likely the rising influence of the taliban in afghanistan, whether or not they take over the government, they clearly are going to have more influence. will be bad for women, bad for human rights, bad for many of the aspirations and values americans do have? >> 100%. and 50% of the population is female. 70% are under the age of 30. 15% are shia. that's a huge number of people that don't want the taliban back. one thing we have kind of conflated, particularly the president but also others, this notion of endless wars. we should be talking about persistence presence. we're still in korea when it was the poorest country of the world. now one of the richest. plenty of troops. so i think persistent presence is a better way of framing this. right now, one of the things about president trump is his consistent inconsistencinconsis. he pulled the plug. he could easily pull the plug on

this. if this is several american servicemen are killed or there's an attack somewhere in the west that's traceable. >> let me ask you about the point peter makes. this is a point people like general petraeus make, which is, look. this is not some great war the u.s. is fighting. we have a small number of troops. these are counterterror operations in support of an afghan national security force. why isn't it possible to imagine the united states acting in that way to stabilize democratic legitimate government that's trying to create a decent society. it's not that expensive for the u.s. what's the argument against persistent presentation presence. >> the argument is we have been trying to create this stable government for the last 18 plus years. it hasn't worked. what have we spent? a trillion dollars? some people say $2 trillion. the costs are substantial.

the costs will continue. and although i wouldn't say that many of the american people care about the afghanistan war, there's nobody celebrating in the streets because our longest war has ended. there's also virtually no public support for continuing this enterprise. >> fascinating conversation. thank you, both. next on go"gps," the latest on e coronavirus outbreak. i will talk to the the cabinet officer who dealt with the ebola outbreak in 2014. with hepatitis c... ...i felt i couldn't be at my...

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the world health organization said this week the coronavirus outbreak has the

potential to become a global pandemic. but it isn't there yet. let me show you some stats. as of sunday morning almost 90,000 people have been infected around the world. 3,000 people have died. including the first death in the united states. if you're wondering how explosive the growth of coronavirus has been, take a look at this animation that compares infections of four recent outbreaks starting at the time they were reported to the w.h.o. swine flu, mers, ebola and coronavirus. let's pause here at nine weeks. that's where we are now. coronavirus are at the highst of the group above swine flu at this point. but when i start the graphic again and go on, swine flu infections start to increase exponentially, they just take off. and that's going forward a year. so where will the coronavirus

curve be in a year? that's anyone's guess. but i will bring on the experts to do just that. the secretary of health and human services during the ebola outbreak and now the president of american university. and sanjay gupta is our chief medical. one is how fast this is spreading. that's the graphic. and the second is how lethal is coronavirus. you mentioned in that press conference with president trump that it seems to be at about 2% rate. do we have any new news on either of those? >> the transmisability seems to be similar to flu, which is what president trump was referring to in terms of that comparison. so one person infects two to three people. looks like, that's the not factor. in terms of lethality, the

numbers still stay the same right around 2%. i talked about this and said is that a china number because that's where the big studies are coming from or the same number here in the united states. he believe it is will be similar in the united states. so about a 2% fatality. >> which is 20 times as fatal as the flu. >> flu is .1%. this would be 20 times as fatal. that's the big concern. >> civsylvia, the u.s. has not a mass outbreak. is it likely? and what do we do to plan, prevent, mitigate? >> i think the planning is really where we should be focused right now. when we talk about the planning, it's the planning of our federal government, our state and local governments, our public health system and the institutions whether those are businesses or universities like that which i work in. the planning right now, i think, needs to focus on making sure that our health system is ready and that we have the tools and the communication that can

support them if this outbreak does grow. >> sanjay, it was said that we're going medieval on coronavirus. they meant the person meant we're dpoing what they did in the middle ages. we're quarantining people, seal ing off places. the chinese have done this esktsively. how come we can't do better? it's been 600 years. some of that is the basic public health measures. they do work. some of that has been the reason they have persisted for so many years is because they have been effective. i don't know we can do what they did in china in which country. that was draconian. the largest quarantines in human history taking place in china over the last two months. but with regard to therapeutics and vaccines, which would be the more modern day equivalent, it just takes some time. you have to prove with the

therapeutics they actually work, they are not going to do harm. people sometimes take a sense of false security in these things. so those things are coming. but we're two months into this still. >> sylvia, when you look at what the trump administration has done to the agencies that generally fight this kind of problem and there's a whole list people have gone through that cuts for public health, cuts to the cdc, the fire iing of scientists, i think we have a graphic that kind of outlines exactly how many of these cuts have taken place. my question to you is does it matter now that the administration does seem seized by this problem and you have vice president mike pence in charge. >> what's most important is we focus on we are as prepared as we can be. first of all, we need to make sure we have the diagnostics.

those are the tests that let you know. with something that can spread as quickly as the coronavirus, making sure that people have access to the test and that our public health community knows how and when to use those tests and can get those results quickly. so we can know when a patient has it and then you can traice the people that have been in touch with that patient so you're watching them as well. the next piece in terms of that preparedness is was mentioned making sure if we can develop treatments. those are long-term solutions as well as vaccines. and then making sure that that system is as prepared as possible. do our health care workers have the tools they need? whether that's the protective gear they need to woear or the directions in terms of what they should be doing with patients, how and when. this will be fought on the ground in cities across the country in terms of the public health system on the ground. so making sure you have great guidance at the federal level based on that science, moving

that information and ensuring that across the country, the tools are ready. information flowing and tools ready for the public health system to use. >> don't go away. stay with us. when i come back, we'll ask two experts what should you do about this outbreak other than wash your hands. that question when we come back. , would you really understand it, with just that point of view? we've got a different way to look at it. from right here on the ground. we don't just the united states. we see united towns. from where we sit, just down the street, near the post office, by the park, when we stop and look around, what we see are sparks. sparks of hope, of compassion, of communities who stand firm.

when neighbors lift each other up, expecting nothing in return. we're grateful for what you bring, and all the sparks you've shown, in the thousands of towns that we get to call home. ♪ how we worship, or who we love. and the 2020 census is how that great promise is kept. because this is the count that informs where hundreds of billions in funding will go each year for things like education, healthcare, and programs that touch us all. shape your future. start here. learn more at 2020census.gov ♪ ♪

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can find information a about travel. it struck me showing that graphic about h1n1 versus now. look at global travel. it's nearly doubled during that time. and i remember during ebola, the common refrain was an infection anywhere is an infection everywhere. the idea that things travel around the world is true. we're talking about a tiny strand that doesn't respect boundaries or borders. in terms of daily life, one of the terms people hear a lot is social distance iing. and what that means is trying to avoid people, especially people who are ill as much as possible. we are not really at that phase, but that's one of those health measures that the idea that maybe people should work from home more often, kids may stay out of school. look around your house. if you had to stay home, do you have enough supplies, food, water, medications, you should have a few months worth of med cases. those things are things people

can do any time. they are not designed to panic or alarm people. but that's some of the preparedness at the individual level. yes, wash the hands. yes, avoid people. we touch our face a lot more than we realize. >> would you shake hands? >> even when i came up to the set, we did the elbow bump. because these are tiny little fragments that can spread that way. so i just do everything i can to avoid that sort of spread. it helps. this isn't just a euphemism. that curbs an outbreak. >> when you look at it from the point of view of a more macrolevel, people are wondering will the olympics be held? japan has already cancelled its football season, 75 games. the president of a big university, are are you going to have to consider canceling classes or convocations? what are you looking at to figure out whether those decisions need to be made and

need to be made affirmatively? >> the decision about the olympics, we also faced when zika okur ed. because the olympics were in south america and that was the place with the highest concentrations of those case. with regard to the olympics and events that are further out, i think what we need to do is continue to start and think about the planning, but this is one where more and more information we learn over the next weeks and months will be very helpful to those decision making. decisions that they will make together. the u.s. supported brazil during a time of zika. with regard to a university, we're in it right now because we have students who are studying abroad. we have about 500 students studying abroad. we have brought our students back from china. korea, we are in the middle of following guidance when italy went up. i think that's an important thing that we at a university follow the guidance in terms of when the levels.

that's what institutions should do and individuals should do. the second part we need to plan for is enrollment and thinking about foreign students for the fall. how will this impact that. and the third place we're planning for a university is thinking through what would happen here if we had an outbreak in the area of washington, d.c. where america university is located. you can see those are different in time. one is right now and we're bringing those students back following the protocols that the cdc put forward. the other is thinking about the median term. depend i depending on the trajectory of the virus. >> sanjay, very quickly, if this gets bad, we can't possibly is have the number of supplies we need for something like this. >> i was doing some quick math in preparation for the show. you start look iing at the percentage of people who could become critically ill and need more intensive care and need

breathing machines. say a million people contract the virus here. that means 14%, 15% would become more seriously or critically ill. ventilators in this country, we have around 10,000. but there's a certain is percentage in use at any given time. so how do we account for the shortfall of ventilators at that point. what's our surge capacity? are we we going to bring equipment out of stockpiles? all these are decisions that need to be made now. china brought us time by implementing measures they did over there. a month, month and a half. that's really important time. because hours matter here, days matter. how are we going to prepare in that regard. public buildings could suddenly become places people are cared for. not just hospitals. not to incite panic, but that's

part of being prepared at the medical level. >> sort of run fast, don't run scared. >> that's good, yes. >> thank you, both. that was very important. next on "gps," as president tru trumped india, mobs were attacking and killing muslimings in that nation, in that city. what is going on? we'll explore, when we come back. p you build a clear plan for retirement. one that covers health care costs, taxes, and any other uncertainties. because when you're with fidelity, a partner who makes sure every step is clear, there's nothing to stop you from moving forward. and my lack of impulse control,, every step is clear, is about to become your problem. ahh no, come on. i saw you eating poop earlier. hey! my focus is on the road, and that's saving me cash with drivewise. who's the dummy now? whoof! whoof! so get allstate where good drivers save 40%

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on the same day that president trump was touting the religious tolerance of india's prime minister, not far away from where the president spoke muslims were being beaten by mobs. 40 people very killed in the violence in the last week alone. modi's country's population is 15% muslim. critics charged the prime minister has infected the nation

with a form of hindu nation nationalism. we have a journalist in the midst of the violence. you have covered many of these kind of incidents. how bad is this one? >> reporter: fareed, i was when the carnage took place. when modi presided when a thus muslims were killed, but nobody was prepared for what we are witnessing in delawai because m is a prime minister. and the visuals that we are seeing emerging from new delawadeli seem to be from families, muslim families abandoning their homes

with their belongings in trucks. there are women molested with mobs entering the localities. chanting. there are mosques with torched that are burnt copies of the koran lying around. all this was hamg at the same time as trump was address iing e indian and international media and telling the world that modi has got everything in control. i have never witnessed anything more traumatizing than what i have been witnessing right now as a journalist in india. >> what has the role of the police been in all of this? because a very serious that if you look at the way the police were standing by or encouraging the mobs, this is what by definition was state sponsored. >> absolutely. there have been many arguments and whether this should be called that or a riot, it's for

a reason that the mobs have been given a free lease to go and attack muslim localities. it was all preplanned. the cops are not as -- but also co complicit in what video that emerged. there are four muslims lying on the street with blood on their clothes and the cops are beating them and asking them to chant the national anthem. thr places where cops are attacking muslims themselves. so not just the deli police. the whole minister responsible for maintaining law and order in the country has been giving the most provocative speeches in the country. to think it has not yet visited the site. in fact, he gave a speech two days ago while the rioting was happening that he was going to build a grand temple speaks volumes of where we stand today.

the prime minister two took three dates to put out a statement on twitter that the prime minister has not withstood where the carnage took place. not that i'm surprised. here was a man who was the chief minister who has not expressed regret and today when this is happening, the prime minister is silent. >> hinduism is a remarkably peace religion and they are in a diverse country. they have had a live and let live. has the rhetoric changed that for the average hindu? >> unfortunately, the intrigue is meeting with the common hindu. the kind of hate crimes happening every day not just in the national capital, butt kind

of videos, just when i was coming here, there was a video from qatar where there's a mob chanting the most provocative slogans. just this month, they have suspended three drivers. so some bare the hate that has been by the government of india, but modi and his ministers, who have openly asked to go to pakistan. they are kind of creating this victimhood in 80% majority that muslims are taking away what rightfully belongs to them and they have the first right to resources. >> i'm so sorry to cut you off because we are literally out of time. thank you for all the work you're doing and thank you for your courage. and thank you to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. stand up to moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis. and take. it. on with rinvoq. rinvoq a once-daily pill

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hey, it's time for "reliable sources." a look at the story behind the story. the head liens are about joe biden. his victory in the south carolina primary. it has changed the narrative of the democratic race, at least for a day. but michael bloomberg is countering with some big tv hits and an even bigger pot of money for tv ads. i listen lb. joined by senior staffers. team bernie is continuing to blast msnbc. they say the candidate is being slighted. what's really going on there. plus trump's legal stunt. he's suing "the new york times" for this opinion headline. my guests have some opinions about th