hello, i'm kate baldwin, thank you for joining us this hour. this is early data but it appears to be giving some hope today. the biotech firm moderna is reporting early data from a vaccine trial showing patients developed antibody from the coronavirus. it is early and a small study but the company said that it will soon move to the new phase in the trial involving something like 600 people. this is still far from

conclusive but people are definitely looking for some good news today. all of the time at this point. let's be honest. the death toll in the united states from this coronavirus is now near 90,000. looking at the overall continued spread of the virus, the numbers are staggering. they continue to be almost 1.5 million people in this country that have been infected. cnn correspondent elizabeth cohen is joining us now. what more are you learning about the early reporting from moderna about this vaccine trial. >> we're learning they looks at eight participants and even at a low dose they developed antibodies to the novel coronavirus. so what those antibodies do is they bind, they latch on to the virus and they disable it from infecting human cells. i spoke earlier with the chief medical officer at moderna dr. tall sacks. let's take a listen.

>> these antibodies were proven to be able to block the ability of the virus to affect cells even at the lowest dose, we are already seeing an immune response at the level of people who have been infected with this virus and are believed now not to be susceptible to further disease. >> reporter: now, they did see some side effects. a few people developed flu-like symptoms but at a very high dose so they'll move forward to clinical trials with lower doses. so speaking of moving forward, let's look at the timeline. right now they have vaccinated between 60 and 100 people. in july they plan to start large-scale clinical trials and that involves tens of thousands of people. and that is where the rubber hits the road. that is where you find out if this vaccine helps people in the real world, not just in a laboratory and they hope to have this vaccine on the market between january and june of next year. but, kate, i'll be very clear, dr. zacks was not making

promises or guaranteeing anything. he said that is what they hope. they think that is realistic but not 100% sure they'll have the vaccine in the first half of the next year. >> hopes against expectations running up against reality. thank you so much. joining me now is dr. paul offer from the children's hospital of philadelphia. doctor, it is great to see you, thank you for coming in. i want to get your thoughts on this news from moderna. what do you think of it? >> well, i can't emphasize how strongly enough how preliminary these data are. we don't yet know this vaccine is safe in large numbers of people, we don't know that it is effective. it is induced a neutralizing antibody response but that doesn't mean that people are going to be protected against disease. the only way to know that is to test that vaccine frankly in at least thousands, many thousands of people and in a prospective

placebo controlled style whether you could prove it is safe and effective. right now it is tested in the amount of people you would invite to a small out door barbecue, that is not enough. >> that is right. and your caution is so important and i've heard that from others who are experts in the vaccine realm. and that is why i wonder, the white house's new vaccine czar on friday said the following, this data made me feel even more confident that we will be able to deliver a few hundred million doses of vaccine by the end of 2020. we don't know exactly if he's talking about this trial. but just in general, what is your reaction to the white house or anyone setting expectations like this right now? >> i wish they would be a little more humble about this. nature gives up its secrets slowly and with a human price. we've learned time and time again to go slowly and carefully because often there are surprises, things unprecedented

and unanticipated and now you have the technology, messenger rna, where for the first time we're not given the virus or in this case the purified protein on the surface of the virus that we care about, we're giving the genetic material so the person themselves makes the protein to which they make an immune response and that is never been done before and i think we should be open minded that there may be things that are not anticipated to happen. and the only way is to test it in tens of thousands of people in a placebo controlled trial and hopefully that will happen in july and then and only then that i think we could step up to the microphone and say i think we have something. >> yeah. one question with any new medicine and that includes vaccines is the possible of side effects and these are concerns that you know well as a leading expert on vaccines. and this is a discussion that has led to misguided fears in recent years relating to

vaccines. vaccines are so unique because you're giving to healthy people, not giving them an experimental drug when they are sick. what level of side effect do you think will be acceptable for a coronavirus vaccine? >> right. i think we'd be willing to accept the side effect that elizabeth cohen mentioned, which is a low grade fever, flu-like symptoms killing 1,000, to 2,000 people a day. and that is what people are concerned about. you want to make sure that sometimes when you give a vaccine and then exposed to the virus you develop somethinged called a vaccine induced pathological response and that we need to make sure that doesn't happen and so they would re assure ourselves that that doesn't happen. because most of the people are healthy who would not die of this virus so you want to make sure you hold it to a high

standard of safety. >> that is exactly right. one quick question because this runs up against herd immunity, this idea you don't need a vaccine because if enough people get exposed the population will be protected and the virus will go away. i heard that from a member of congress and heard that from the congress when he said the virus will pass with or without a vaccine. you could just speak to that. >> i don't think that is true. i think as a child of the '50s, i had measles and that meant i was protected for the rest of my life as was everybody infected with measles and every year there could be several million cases of measles causing 48,000 hospitalizations and about 500 deaths because every year there could be a susceptible of population of people. that would be true here too. the only way we get true population immunity is with a vaccine. >> period. doctor, thank you for being here. great to have you. so nearly every state is reopening parts of the economy or making plans to do so.

over the weekend we want to show you some scenes in some places. what used to be honestly just normal everyday life, now seems anything but that when you see this. crowds on beaches, at bars, restaurants across the country and appearing in some cases that folks are just clearly ignoring social distancing guidelines. then when you look at the national picture, in a majority of the states the rate of new cases is trending down right now. that is good news. but look closer at individual states and the picture continues to be complicated. in texas, the rate of new cases is popping up. not just going up but spiking over the weekend. this saturday saw the largest single day jump in infections. let's go there. ed lavandera is in dallas. the governor is speaking soon. what are officials saying about what is behind the jump and what are they planning to do about it? >> reporter: right. well the governor here in texas is just sitting down beginning to make some new announcements. no headlines that we could report to you just yet.

we'll have that here shortly. but there has been a great deal of concern about what the state of texas saw over the weekend. state health officials reporting on saturday a jump of 1800 new coronavirus cases being reported here in the state. this comes as some 32,000 tests were being reported as well. now if you take a look at the average over the course of the last 14 days, which now includes all of that time period inside of the beginning of this phased reopening of the texas economy, you could kind of see how it slowly kind of upticks and then you might notice there at the end of the graph how it drops dramatically yesterday, i believe 785 coronavirus cases being reported here in the state of texas, but if you look deeper at those numbers, this was almost less than half of the tests that were reported yesterday. if you do the math there, the percentage works out to be about the same. so if you compared where we are today to where we were about two weeks ago, a slight uptick in

the number of coronavirus cases. the governor here in texas moving full steam ahead with the idea of reopening the texas economy in what he describes as a phased approach. opening up today gym exercise facilities at a 25% capacity. nonessential manufacturing is getting the green light and offices and businesses inside of office buildings and those getting the green light to reopen as well today. so having said all of that, there is still a great deal of trepidation and uncertainty about where all of this is headed. if you look at some of the other medical data that the governor here in texas is relying upon, much of that has been stagnant and flat for the better course of the last two weeks as well. so that is why many big city leaders here in texas feel that we're in a very precarious situation right now. kate. >> absolutely. thank you, ed. so any moment now researchers behind that very influential coronavirus model are updating their projections. in the past few weeks we're

talking about the ihme, the model projected that the death toll would be higher and last week projected a big jump of 10,000 cases and deaths in terms of their projections last week. now more and more states are reopening. there is more movement among those states. let's figure out where things stand now today. one of the professors behind the study join me now with a preview, ali mcdot, it is great to have you back. what are you -- give us the update today. >> so we're going to release new numbers this afternoon and we're seeing, we're monitoring mobility and trying to find out if increase in mobility means increase in mortality but clearly what we are seeing right now that people as they move they're more likely to wear a mask and keep a social distance. so this is the good news that will come out this afternoon. >> so good news. tell me what you think that

could actually mean because last week when we spoke there was a big jump in the projected death toll. 10,000, then up to 147,000 deaths projected through august. that is last week. this week you're seeing a very different change. >> no, we see -- kate, that is a very good question. we're seeing right now some state still have problems and they're increasing and some states are doing much better. right now it is a function of testing and we are seeing right now about 90 tests per 100,000 in the u.s. on the average. we need about 300 per state. and that is a huge variation, where you see some states around 45, some states are doing 350, a huge variation in the number of testing. the problem in facing the data, we don't have only from ten states how many admissions of covid are happening right now and we need this information because as things increase we need to make sure that we take

out people who are symptomatic and folk on those who are asymptomatic to get a better idea with the virus. and that is one. and the second is the data standpoint, we don't have a coordinated national sample right now by state that is done exactly the same way that we figure out how many are detected every day and how many are new. right now be don't have that. new york did once a day like this and states are doing their own thing and there is no coordination for a good picture and enable us to compare apples-to-apples across the states. >> and the last couple of weeks trying to find a way to account for one element or one factor in all of these policies and strategies that we've seen across the country, which is wearing masks. have you been able to account for that? >> yes, kate. we are going to release data that is accounted for wearing

mask and we'll release on our web a map as to how many are wearing masks. it is very important to remind everybody that masks do work and we see an effect of masks for reducing the transmission of the virus, and we hope, as we are moving outside of our homes, everybody is doing their part by wearing the mask and keeping a safe distance from each other. >> one part of our conversation last week was talking about how the full effect of the early opening up in the states was not really yet able to bear out in your projections because more time needed to pass. do you think your now in a place where you think the full effects of early opening are accounted for in your projections? >> yes. for some states we could see what is happening in the states. and we talked about georgia and north carolina and we see that effect on north carolina and georgia was flattening and north carolina relaxed when it was going up. so you see a diversion between

what we see in georgia and north carolina in terms of infection and mortality, unfortunately. >> yeah. ali mcdad, thank you for coming in again. we look forward to the projections being released very soon. really appreciate it. >> thank you. >> coming up for us, the trump administration now fighting amongst itself. the white house versus the cdc all over testing and the coronavirus. and later a new study revealing what could have happened if states had not put social distancing orders in place and what they found and what that means now that states are opening up.

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in the midst of this coronavirus crisis the administration is now publicly fighting amongst itself for who is to blame or for not moving fast enough when it comes to testing. one top white house adviser peter navarro blamed the cdc and today alex azar fired back. >> early on in this crisis, the cdc which really had the most trusted brand around the world in this space really let the country down with the testing because not only did they keep the testing within the bureaucracy, they had a bad test. and that did set us back. >> the comments regarding cdc are inaccurate and inappropriate. the cdc had one error which was in scaling up the manufacturing of the test that they had developed. there was a contamination that didn't affect the accuracy of the test, just led to

inconclusive results, they fixed that within weeks and got it out. >> how is that for a coordinated response? and where does that leave the status of widespread testing which is the cornerstone in containing the virus. joining me now is dr. ajid shaw, former head of usaid under president obama. so testing is the whole ball game. first on the fight within the administration, you have a cdc official who told cnn this, this administration has shown time and again that it has a problem with science. we're giving them science and they don't seem to want it. that is a top cdc official about this white house. what is your reaction to this? >> well, my reaction is that i actually believe there is plenty of capacity for republicans, democrats, scientists, industry leaders and local officials to come together and create a testing strategy for america that could get us from the 1

million tests a week we were at just a couple of weeks ago and then up to 3 million tests a week which is achievable and achievable very quickly and then to the 30 million tests a week that the rockefeller foundation has called for. and i know that because we've created a testing action plan by bringing those partners together and we included in our expert group former republican officials, former democratic officials because that is not really about politics or assigning blame, that is really about in the midst of battle coming up with evidence-based solutions to expanding testing. testing is the only way to keep the u.s. economy operational during a period and time when we're still waiting for a vaccine and a treatment. >> this seems like absolutely no time, maybe the worst time to be finger pointing when you're still in the middle of trying to ramp up this key factor of testing. and i want to highlight and you mentioned but the rockefeller

administration has done great work in the realm of testing, laying out markers to where the country needs to be to get a handle on it. 1 to 3 million tested a week and 30 million tested by the fall and that is by week i believe. the cdc reports that right now 10.8 million people sl been tested since the start of the crisis. that is not per week. that is not per month. do you think that the country -- do you think the country is going to get there? why does the country need to get there. >> well america desperately needs to get there. so we'll pull together partners from the public and private sector, both sides of the political spectrum to make sure we do. two-thirds of the molecular testing capacity in america that is still underutilized is sitting in search labs and university labs now starting to come online but could allow for the quick expansion from 1 million to 3 million tests per

week in the next few weeks. in order to get to 30 million tests per week we need focus on innovation and new technology that we know we're capable of. we see more than 80 companies have emergency use authorizations for moving forward with different types of tests. they still need to be evaluated but we're hopeful that point of service tests and home kits affordable and effective will allow us to have a high level of testing and that is necessary because right now the official guidance is still primarily people with symptoms should be getting tests. and we know that obviously they need to be getting tests but we also believe that a lot of america's essential workers in health care settings but also in meat packing plants, in any setting where their work is both essential and requires them to be exposed to risk, they need to have access to tests as well on some sort of protocol so that they could report back to families an their communities

that they're safe. and so if they're positive they could do what is happening in germany and switzerland and self-quarantine for two weeks and take themselves out of the loop of further contagion. >> and look, i want to play something, this reinforces how important and crucial this is. this is what we're hearing the president say about testing recently which is surprising. >> could be the testing is frankly overrated. maybe it is overrated. we more cases than anybody in the world. but why? because we do more testing. when you test, you have a case. when you test, you find something is wrong. with people. if we didn't do any testing, we would have very few cases. >> he's saying to me testing is overrated. you could respond to that? >> yeah, you know, i led the ebola response in west africa in

2014 and america deployed nearly 3,000 troops, we very quickly in the fall of 2014 tamped down that incredible pandemic threat. and we did it by getting testing to work. when we started, it was taking eight, nine, ten days to confirm a positive. by the we were succeeding, we had that down to four hours and we were doing everything from laboratory and helicopter transport to lab samples to the department of defense bio terror labs and that is what we need in america, a focus on quick, rapid, ubiquitous testing for symptomatic patients but also for people who do not have symptoms but are essential workers both in the fight against the pandemic and to keep the rest of the economy at least functional so that we're not losing the 300 to $400 billion a month that we've estimated is lost is a full lockdown. so testing is necessary.

every part of pandemic response is test, collect the data, then trace the contacts of those that are positive. test them if you need to. and prevent contagion so that you could get ahead of this crisis and that's just what has to happen. there is only one way out until we have a vaccine. >> and that comes with a clear message of who should be tested. changing the guidelines because it has to go past people that are symptom, it must in order to get our hands around it. dr. shaw, thank you. >> thank you, kate. still ahead for us, what would have happened without social distancing? there is a new study that actually puts a number to that very question and it is startling. (announcer) in this world where people are staying at home,

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from government officials to medical experts, social distancing is being credited as a key factor in slowing the spread of the coronavirus around the world. but how key are these policies? can you measure the real impact? a new study did just that out of the university of kentucky. it's finding eye-popping,

without social distancing and bans on social gathering and closure of school and shutting down movie theaters and restaurants and concerts and bars without that, the united states, they project, would have seen 35 times more cases of the virus by the end of april. 35 million cases compared to the 1 million plus that the country saw at the end of april. joining me right now, the co-author of that study charles cord associate professor at the university of kentucky. thank you so much for being here. as i was looking through this, i realized, you're an economist. what was it that you had wanted to -- that you wanted to find out that led you to this study? >> that is right. so my co-authors and i are health economists which means we're used to studying impacts of policies related to health care one way or another. but it does mean we come at it

from a little bit of a different perspective. and the first thing we tend to notice is the economic damage of the different policies. and so which you could see just from unemployment totals and claims and so on. so we tend to look at it from that we're well aware of the economic damage, was the public health benefit as advertised and ultimately worth it, worth these large economic costs. >> and so when you see these numbers really startling without social distancing, the country would have been looking at 35 times more cases, what does that mean? >> so that's right around 35 million. at the time -- so you always want to take exact numbers like that with a grain of salt. but the idea certainly, order of magnitude or more cases, and that really points to

exponential growth, right. something both economist, and ep he hade -- and that epidemiologists understand and with this altogether we're flattening the curve by half. in other words the daily cases was roughly half of what it would have been without these measures. but where that gets powerful is compounding it day after day, after day, and then by the end of a several week period you end up with something like 35 times more cases. so it is hard to see necessarily one day to the next day to the next day, but all of a sudden it is like the boulder is running downhill and you get this exponential growth. >> did you find that one specific measure was more effective than others? >> so, we looked at four different measures that you named. and what we found is the closing of restaurants and other

entertainment-related businesses was important. also roughly equally important, imposing the shelter in place or the stay-at-home orders on top of the other prior restrictions. the other two restrictions we could not find any evidence that they did anything. so that was the closing of public schools and the banning of events over a certain size, typically 50 people. so those tended to be the earlier and what we call the lighter measures and they didn't seem to be enough and then the stronger measures that tended to come on board a few weeks later were very effective, though. >> really quickly, what does that mean? what do you take from this or should people take from this going forward? states are now opening up or in some phase of reopening so what should folks take from this? >> well, you can't -- you really can't take it as we need to keep

full lockdowns in place all the way to the vaccine and that is just obviously not practical, right. whether one would argue health wise it was ideal or not almost doesn't matter because it is not going to happen. so what i think you should take from it is that we are, in fact, playing with fire here. i think a lot of places across the country, i live in kentucky, kind of places off the coast, right, tend to look at this and say, well, you know, our hospitals aren't overcrowded, they never got overcrowded or got the kind of death tolls that were projected and use that to kind of dismiss the threat. and what we're finding and arguing here is that well the reason that didn't happen is because we took these steps and we took these preventative measures, these very strong measures before it got to that point where it would have overrun the health care system

even in places like kentucky. so really to take -- rather than rushing to just say it willwell it was over blown, let's get back to normal to realize that we are, in fact, playing with fire and should take a careful measured approach and really pay close attention to the guidelines that are out there. >> hearing that from medical experts and now health economists as well. charles, thank you. >> thank you. still ahead for us, new concerns about the uss roosevelt as more crew members who have already recovered from the virus and were cleared now testing positive again. when the world gets complicated, a lot goes through your mind. with fidelity wealth management, your dedicated adviser can give you straightforward advice and tailored recommendations.

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there are now 14 sailors from the uss roosevelt who tested positive after recovering and returning to the ship. the sailors were thought to be in the clear. barbara starr is joining us from the pentagon. what are you learning. >> reporter: well this is at a very awkward time for the carrier theodore roosevelt. it is still in port pierside in graham and they are trying to get back out to sea but as this is happening, 14 sailors who as you say had thought to have been negative had been tested twice after having the virus, twice tested negative, that meant, according to the military protocol, they were supposed to be clear but they came down with symptoms and now testing

positive. obviously they are off the ship and the question is why is this happening. it is something that medical investigators are trying to determine right now. is it possibly an issue with the testing? were there false negatives? did they have some very low level of the virus still in their system that the tests simply did not detect. and of course that is important for all of us, you know, to understand how and if this virus lingers in the system even if you test negative after having it. so this is a very significant issue for the navy, the medical community, to try and figure out. i mean, it should be said that there are several hundred sailors that so far have successfully returned to duty aboard the carrier. but there are still more than 600 active cases of the virus amongst the crew. kate. >> barbara, thank you for that update. let's turn to this now. the university of south carolina has just made a major announcement that is going to

end in-person classes after thanksgiving and also cancel fall break in hopes of preventing a second wave of the coronavirus. on top of that, another big announcement that a lot of people have been waiting for, an update on summer camps across the country. paulo sandoval is tracking both of these. let's start with the university of south carolina. what is the plan for fall. >> this is important information for parents, me it parents for small children looking at summer camp or older kids and those that attend the university of south carolina. the university announcing two key changes that there will be no fall break and face-to-face instruction will end after thanks giving. a schedule released by the university. staff could expect the first classes would be held on october 15th and 16th in order to accelerate the semester and then after thanksgiving expect the face-to-face interaction to end. the main reason here they're trying to reduce any possible risk of a second wave.

because if you think about it or the way university officials are thinking about the students and staff that may go home for the holidays and go back after thanksgiving after potentially being infected and this creates a bigger problem. as you hear from the university president, bob casslan said people will be disappointed but it is about the safety of everybody on the campus and the way the university president describes it, it is the new norm that has to be embraced. and finally for parents of the younger children, finally the american camp association and the ymca of the united states rolling out guidelines for summer camp should they proceed with opening including sleep-away camps that they're staying that the staff would have to be dedicated to each cabin. also restrictive access to the cabins to only the people or children who are staying there. sleeping areas would have to be modified, sleepers would be position in a head to toe configuration and vice versa and

some physical barriers that would have to be put in place but ultimately what you're hearing is regulating body are three key pieces of guidance here is which is the facilities need to ask themselves, should they be reopening and are there proper measures in place and measures in place to monitor those numbers should they be forced to close up again. so what you're seeing are various changes, yes, after the phase one is completed in some states, there are still guidelines that not only universities but summer camps should follow. >> paulo, thank you. still ahead for us, the origins of the coronavirus. world leaders calling for an investigation and china responding in a very surprising way. and take. it. on... ...with rinvoq. rinvoq a once-daily pill... ...can dramatically improve symptoms... rinvoq helps tame pain, stiffness, swelling. and for some-rinvoq

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the world health organization has now agreed to an independent review of its response to the coronavirus outbreak. that commitment coming today from an attorney general in a virtual meeting with a hundred countries. let's check in with our correspondents all over the world. >> reporter: i'm nic robertson in london. there does seem to be consensus at the world health assembly, rather than talking about an investigation of specifically china but to broaden the terms of that investigation out so it would involve all countries around the world. more than a hundred companies seem to have signed up to this agreement crafted by the european union. interesting, some of the

comments that have been made have talked about w.h.o. unity, the importance of that, the german chancellor saying that and perhaps a reference to the u.s. deciding or not deciding to pull funding from the w.h.o. the swiss president said you cannot get a lot from an organization if the funding is hit and miss. >> reporter: i'm i have van wat hong kong. president xi jinping pledged $2 billion over two years to global efforts against the deadly virus and pledged aid to african countries as well. in response to calls for an investigation into origins of the disease which were first detected in the chinese city of wuhan back in december, he said that he would support an independent review, according to

science and fact, but only after covid-19 has been brought under control. >> reporter: i'm shasta darlington in sao paulo. brazil has surged past italy in the number of confirmed covid-19 cases. in sao paulo the mayor has warned the city is on the verge of collapse if residents don't start respecting social distancing measures. he said 90% of intensive care beds are full, and yet less than half of the population is sheltering at home. lockdown could be coming. meantime president jair bolsonaro joined another anti-lockdown protest in brazil where he posed for photos and did push-ups with men in red berets. >> we appreciate those reports from around the world. coming up, sniffing out coronavirus, literally. researchers are trying to determine if dogs hold the key. i'm kate bolduan.

thanks for joining me. "the lead" with jake tapper is next.

good afternoon and welcome to "the lead." i'm jake tapper. last night president trump bizarrely and falsely accused me and other members of the news media of breaking the law by reporting on him. the president has been falsely accusing all sorts of folks in the media and politics of breaking the law in various ways

these days, promoting a conspiracy theory that a different tv news anchor is responsible for a murder. his sons are out there pushing deranged memes about their father's democratic presidential challenger as a pedophile, and on and on. it all seems clearly designed to distract from the horrific health, death, and economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. and that of course is what we here at "the lead" will continue to focus on, as the united states nears 90,000 deaths from coronavirus and almost 1.5 million cases. and if the trend conditions, we could see 100,000 deaths in the u.s. by next week. as of today, all 50 states are now reopening some nonessential businesses or have a plan to do so, even as about a third of the states in the u.s. still have coronavirus case numbers on the rise. but there are some promising signsod