this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the show bolton's blockbuster, his new book tells us what he did as national security adviser. but what should he have done? how should he have reacted to donald trump? i'll have a frank conversation with president obama's national security adviser. then, this week marked the 75th anniversary of the signing of the united nation's charter. is the organization still stuck in 1945? does it wield any real power in

today's changed world? i'll talk to the u.n. secretary-general. antonio gutierrez. and the u.s. once pointed to italy as the worst-case scenario it hoped to avoid on covid. now america is fairing worse than italy was at the peak of the crisis. what in the world happened? but first, here's my take. as the united states has faltered in its handling of the coronavirus pandemic, many experts have warned that china is using the situation to enhance its influence across the world. this is part of a familiar pattern in which the u.s. has worried that its adversaries were ten feet tall and growing. a striking feature of the recent international landscape has been china's strategic blunders. the most significant example is

china's recent incursion into india. in the galwan valley. for reasons that are not entirely clear chinese forces have reportedly taken 23 square miles of land sparking a deadly skirmish. this has triggered a backlash in india. new delhi has tried for years to have good relationships with china. the leaders have met many times and often rejected talk of aligning with the u.s. pursuing a foreign policy termed multi-aligned. no one is using that phrase now. india's media has erupted with anti-chinese sentiment. india's recently retired foreign secretary wrote an op-ed arguing that china's neighbors had to stop accommodating beijing's aggressive moves and recognize that they need a robust u.s. military presence to help manage the situation.

he declared that in the post-covid age, enjoying the best of both worlds may not be an option. or consider china's relations with its other neighbors. chinese ships have sunk ships from vietnam, malaysia and japan. in areas that those countries considered their own zones. china has said it was simply patrolling its own waters. this kind of behavior has led to a remarkable strategic reversal in the philippines. manila had been drifting away from washington. under president duterte. duterte announced that they were terminating the agreement of washington's efforts to maintain close military ties in the region. this month, manila announced they would no longer be terminating the agreement. in light of political and other developments in the region. australia, their economy has benefited from china's rise. as a result, they sought

friend friendly relations with beijing. no more. australian officials suspect china now of mounting a string of cyberattacks against the country, though china denies it. reports suggest beijing has influenced to remain loyal there. after australia called for an inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus, china moved to restrict australian imports during the coronavirus and discourage tourism there. while state media said that australia was gum stuck to china's shoes. the foreign ministry spokesman from china is famous for his abusive language. in the wake of covid-19 he public floated a conspiracy theory that the disease might have been brought to china by the u.s. army.

the country's new breed of diplomats, tend to be just as aggressive and confrontational believing that offense is the best defense and heaping scorn on anyone who doubts the country's propaganda. the chinese leader who brought his country into an quasi-alliance with the united states, had always counselled that beijing should not push its weight around. hide your strength he would say. in 2005 an adviser to the president wrote a foreign affairs essay called "china's peaceful rise" expanding on the concept of china as a quiet great power. these ideas might have been sounded like good global citizenship. they were rooted in china's geo political politician. -- position. china is not rising in a vacuum

but in a region with other major countries such as japan, india and australia. every action beijing takes should be considered a reaction to the relations it causes in those nations. thanks to its actions over the past few years under president xi, china finds itself in the same strategic situation as the soviet union did in the cold war, surrounded by countries growing hostile to it. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my article. let's get started. ♪ ♪ we know all the juicy bits from john bolton's tell all, but what is the big picture? how should we think about what we've learned about president trump and american foreign policy? joining me now is the man who was national

security adviser before bolton was, tom donalin, he served up president obama. welcome, tom. >> good morning, fareed. >> as a former national security adviser, when you read this book, what was the one thing that surprised you or struck you? >> well, it's an extraordinary book. the national security adviser is the person in the white house who in most cases spends the most hours of the day with the president of the united states. it's the first most that the president sees in the morning when he comes into work. it's the last person he talks to at night. i've never seen anything like the report we got out of ambassador bolton's book, particularly not about a president who's still in office. a number of things struck me. there's a high level of dysfunction which is disturbing. one thing as a former national security adviser that i was struck by is, is his reports on the president's daily briefing. the pdb.

that has relevance to a story that broke overnight on russia. he reported that the president rarely read the pdb and did meet on a daily basis, maybe only once or twice a week met with advisers to discuss the pdb. why is this important? this is the intelligence community briefing the president on a daily basis. it's the way in which the president stays on top of the world. it's the way in which the intelligence community brings strategic and tactical warning to the president about something that might be emerging. this is a product brought to every president since february of 1946 when harry truman received the first daily briefing. it's essential. i don't think a president can do his job well without having this kind of flow. things like war, terrorist attacks and, in this case,

most re -- relevantly, a pandemic. we know from reporting in the "washington post" it was -- the intelligence community brought this to the attention of the president in january or february. if you miss one of these warnings, the impact can be devastating for the country. we now have another example where the president says he wasn't briefed on this russia stuff. >> let's talk about that, tom. the report is that the russians have been offering a bounty to afghan, to taliban warriors, to kill american troops, coalition troops, but in particular american troops. what do you make of it and what should the president have done? >> number one, i don't know that -- i've not been privy to the intelligence. but based on the reporting that's been confirmed by a lot of news outlets, there are two things. there's a process concerned with respect to whether the president was briefed on is this or not. he tweeted yesterday that neither he, nor the vice president were briefed on this. that seems pretty extraordinary

to me given the sensitivity of this intelligence. there's seems to be sort of break down in process at the white house which is significant in that the president wouldn't have been aware of something like this. >> maybe it's one of those briefings that he never got. in other words it was in the briefing, but since he seems to take one out of every five, right, he does it once a week. >> it shows how dangerous it is not to consistently engage with the world, engage with what your intelligence community, which is the best intelligence service in the world, is telling you. it shows the danger of not consistently engaging with the intelligence. the substance is also important i think, fareed, on this. it really shows us where we are with russia. i would say three things about that in 30 seconds here if i might. the united states and russia are actively hostile across the board, whether it be in europe, ukraine, libya, we now know in afghanistan, whether it be in terms of threats to our

elections, we're actively hostile with russia. second, putin is not deterred. in my encounters with putin, it's very clear he sizes up his adversary and he makes judgments in terms of the steps he's going to take. in this case he hasn't been deterred. third, we've taken a number of steps, given the intelligence, and just recently -- this intelligence evidently according to "the new york times" was presented in march and in may the president canceled the g7 meeting. pulled half of our troops out of germany and said he was going to invite president putin to the white house in the fall. it's extraordinary given where we are. we had a process breakdown here and the substance is inexplicable to me. inexplicable to me. >> let me ask you about the

other great power, china. trump has clearly decided he's going to run on an anti-china platform. that foreign policy has become part of his domestic re-election campaign. how dangerous is this in actual terms, in terms of foreign policy, war and peace? >> well, i mean, it's quite clear that the president made a pivot from first part of this year, from an embrace of president xi, including his performance on covid, and moved to harsh criticism of the chinese with respect to the covid crisis and its origins. it's clear, fareed, i think coming out of this crisis that the united states and china will be, i think, in terms of its relationship at the lowest point in decades since the 1970s. when established formal relationships with china. we're headed to a bifurcated world with intense rivalry. on most respects of the relationship. hopefully there will be some aspects of cooperation. it's going to be the most important challenge for the next

president whoever he is that we have to face moving forward. it's a -- there's really no challenge more important for the next president. >> let me ask you quickly, tom, we have 30 seconds or so left. should bolton have resigned or testified in some way against the president? >> well, i think that we had during the course of his tenure and after his tenure an impeachment inquiry. he should have participated in the impeachment inquiry i think. nobody is as sensitive as i am to executive privileges. clearly he had important things to say about the direct topic of the impeachment inquiry. he said he had additional things to say. which had caused them to expand the inquiry. he clearly in his own mind resolved the confidentiality issues because he had a book manuscript.

i think he should have participated in the impeachment process to look at the trump presidency. again, it's clear he had resolved whatever executive privileges issues might have been or confidentiality might have been presented. i think it was his obligation to participate. >> tom, thank you so much. >> thank you, fareed. next on "gps," friday was a big anniversary for the u.n., 75th anniversary to the signing of the charter. i'll talk to the secretary-general of the united nations next. (birds singing) (bouncy keyboard music) - [announcer] food delivery just got more rewarding. (package crashing into ground)

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75 years and 2 days ago on june 26, 1945, the united nations charter was signed in san francisco. today the u.n. has 193 member states, a freshly refurbished headquarters in new york and an annual budget of $3 billion. but has it lived up to the hopes the signers had for it, to maintain international peace, to develop friendly relationships between nations? to achieve international cooperation? joining me now is the secretary-general of the united nations, antonio guterres. mr. secretary-general, pleasure to have you on. >> pleasure to be here with you. >> it seems we confront a fascinating paradox. we confront a pandemic that is by nature global. it respects no boundaries.

and yet, it has caused countries to turn even more inward. even the european union countries shut down their borders to one another, travel bans are in place, and of course countries like the u.s. and china having increasingly tense relations. how do we take a global crisis to create more globe cooperation? >> i think we need to make sure that world leaders understand the fragility of our planet and the fragility of humankind today. we have a microscopic virus that's putting us on our knees. as you rightly said, the problem at the moment is that we have world leaders unable to come together. we have relationships among the three main powers as dysfunctional than ever. we see the difficulties in making the security council agree on what is necessary to solve some of the most dramatic conflicts at the moment.

we have seen the response to covid each country going its own way, not only in the borders, but in the strategies to fight the virus, to open up and to launch recovery. i believe this is a crucial moment. the only way to defeat the conflict, the only way to defeat climate change, the only way to put order in the cyberspace, the only way to protect ourselves and advance our fragility is to work together. if not, the covid will go on from one area of the world to another. it came from china, to europe, to the west, now a second wave. the global economy will open up and will close again. we might, instead of a recovery that could take one or two years, we might face a depression for five or seven years. this is so dramatic that people need to understand that

what divides us is not relevant compared with the need to come together and address these challenges. that's what, in my position as secretary-general of the united nations, it's my duty to permanently tell leaders time to stop with this division. time to come together because the problems are defeating us. >> in an interview with the economist" you made an interesting point. you said in the last few decades it had actually been easier to mobilize the world because of an era of american supremacy. you pointed to many crises where if the united states said it was engaged and willing to provide resources, particularly military resources, everything fell into place. so are we now -- is the reality now that we are in a kind of multi-polar world in which other countries simply will not accept

that kind of leadership? how would you characterize the world today? >> i think we are not yet in an organized multi-polar world. it would be good if we had a multi-polar world. we're in a chaotic world. we're in a world where power becomes -- i think it's important to engage the united states in a world order that hopefully will become more multi-polar in the future. but again, multi-polarity is not a guarantee of peace. europe before the first world war was not multi-polar. but in the absence, the result was confrontation and war. we need more and more multi-lateral forms of governments. we need to have shared strategies. >> let me ask you an awkward question. the leading power -- the country that founded the united nations, the united states,

has an administration now that is actively undermining it. president trump came and said the future belongs to nationalists, not to globalists. has withdrawn the united states from the world health organization. he is gutted the world trade organization's arbitration process. can the world survive an american administration that is trying to dismantle some of these structures of international cooperation? >> i think we need to be able to combine two things. one is to have an america re-engaged in world affairs. the second is for the international organizations like the u.n. to understand that they also need to reform themselves. i believe that if you combine those things, a clear reform -- we were founded 75 years ago. the world has changed. there are many aspects in which we're dysfunctional.

we need to correct those aspects. if we're totally determined to it, it will bring back the united states into a more engaged attitude. into international organizations. if we look at reorganizations, it's based on the goodwill of leaders. we need to have a much more institutional framework. institutions to work together. we can't distinguish peace, economy, social aspects. everything is interlinked. we need an inclusive -- >> do you think that china wants an open reformed united nations that promotes genuine human rights, even democratic values? can the u.n. system work with a china that becomes the second most powerful country in the world, perhaps the largest economy in the world? >> i think that, as the united states is essential, china is essential in a world order that needs to combine the efforts of all countries.

i will recall that the paris agreement was only possible because of the american/chinese agreement in relation to climate change at the time. i truly believe that there must be a functional relationship between the united states and china, a functional relationship among the different powers in order to make the would effective in addressing the challenges of today. having said so, the human rights dimension is a core dimension of the united nations and china will have to accept that. it's fair to recognize china has done a lot to recognize human rights. but on the other hand, china still has a long way to go. >> mr. secretary-general, honor to have you on. thank you. >> thank you very much. it was a pleasure. next on "gps," there are just over 3,000 hours until the 2020 election here in america.

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>> well, there's really no comparison between these surveys and the surveys that show hillary clinton ahead four years ago, fareed. hillary clinton was up by 4 points in the national polls. joe biden is leading by 14 points in the national polls. he's up by smaller amounts in the battle states. even if the polls were wrong like four years ago, joe biden would still be elected president fairly comfortably. it is materially different. >> the polls that went wrong the last time, as you pointed out to me before, were the state polls. the national poll was roughly correct. we have state by state polls now. "times" and cnn did. the mistake that was made the last time around -- and i know this because we talked about it on this program before -- was that the state by state polls did not account for enough noncollege-educated whites and

the undecided vote was three times as large as normal and that broke differently than people expected. there's two issues, college educated versus noncollege educated, and the large number of undecided. do you think you factored those in this time? >> the poll certainly factors the educational question. only 33% of the rerespondents on average had a college degree. that's about 15% lower than 2016. it's in line with what the national poll showed last time. as far as our polls are concerned, i'm not remotely worried that there are too few white college-educated voters. they make up a majority of the respondents and joe biden is still ahead by double digits. the undecided voters are a different question. they do appear to lean republican. they're likelier to say they

voted for president trump last time. they're undecided for a reason. they disapprove of the president's performance. i don't think that that makes the poll wrong. it's possible they'll return to the president in the final account. but for now, they're not undecided because they're shy about their support for the president. they're undecided because they're dissatisfied with the president. >> let's talk about that point, you said they might come back. how accurate are polls this far out? >> they're not particularly accurate. on average, i think there's an eight-percentage point error. with polls now and the final election result. that error has declined significantly over time. we don't have errors that are so significant over the last 20 years in part because american

politics has become more polarized. in the 1960s and 1970s there were huge swings in the race that i don't think we have real reason to expect. i won't tell you the race can't change considerably in the last four months. i see no reason to be confident that the polls as see them now will be the same in october. >> there is less movement towards the end. what's the part of the poll that when you look at the internal demographics that struck you the most? >> i was most surprised by the extent of the president's losses among white voters. in many ways this moment feels like it's very much about race. the coronavirus is disproportionately affecting communities of color. in particular, african-americans. the protests about race and criminal justice have focussed -- focused on issues involving nonwhite americans. the change in the president's support is overwhelmingly concentrated in white voters

even though it's not a moment that disproportionately affects them. >> the white backlash hasn't really happened. if anything, it's been the opposite. let me ask you one final question -- florida, he's down 9 points in florida in this poll. would it be fair to say if the president loses florida, it's impossible for him to win the electoral challenge? he would literally have to run the table to win. >> he would have to run the table. given that florida is so representative of the country, it's hard to imagine how the president could lose in the state of florida and still do well in the midwest. there are plenty of midwestern white voters who relocated to florida. the president is falling behind in florida for a reason that would affect him more in the midwest. he's doing quite poorly among older white voters. it's obvious why they hurts him in florida. and it's obvious why it would hurt him in the midwest. >> nate cohen, always a pleasure

to have you on. you make sense of this all in an engaging way. thank you. >> thanks for having me. next on "gps," where once america was pleased not to have as big a covid crisis as italy, today cases are growing in the united states much faster than they were in italy at its peak of its crisis. what in the world is going on? these are extraordinary times, and we want to thank the extraordinary people in the healthcare community, working to care for all of us. at novartis, we promise to do our part. as always, we're doing everything we can to help keep cosentyx accessible and affordable. if you have any questions at all, call us, email us, visit us online. we're here to help support you when you need us. take care, and be well. to learn more, call one eight four four cosentyx or visit cosentyx.com so here's to the strong, who trust in our performance and comfortable, long-lasting protection.

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of the eu cases going down, of the eu cases going down, down, clearly flattening the curve. in the u.s. the curve never quite flattened and is now rising again. what do you think explains this, the line between the european line and the american line? >> well, there's a couple reasons behind what we see in terms of the very different experiences between the u.s. and the european countries in the first wave of covid-19. political leadership matters, especially the ability of central governments to bring everyone together and to coordinate responses, even across regions of their own countries, but also coordinating responses between the different systems that we think are important for dealing with the pandemic. health care, public health and systems of social support for people. >> so, you said a number of things.

the first thing you talked about what centralization. we understand that. the u.s. has a crazy patchwork, thousands and thousands of different authorities. the second thing you said was health care and public health. now here i want to drill down, the u.s. is supposed to have a great public health care system. you know, johns hopkins ranked it the best in the world. we think of the cdc and nih as being these jewels. is what you're saying is that the american system is well-geared for, you know, maybe individual health care, for an individual person, particularly someone who can pay for it, but it doesn't have a kind of an integrated system the way a state-run system would have? >> yes, so, our public health systems in the united states is from fragmented. we have all the fragmentation that comes from having lots and lots of different local governments with public health

function and state governments with public health functions and we have fragmentation that comes from the health care sector. that we have had a lot of private provisions. in a number of european countries, public health functions and things that the health care system does are better integrated. so i think you need to look at both the health care system and the public health system together. our public health system in the u.s., not only is it separate from health care, but it's been consistently under funded. >> do you think the inequality plays a role here? the american system, american society is more unequal. and of course, we famously don't have universal health care. what that means is there are very poor people who maybe didn't get tested, were worried about whether they could afford a test, whether they could afford the care. a system that leaves people out

in a pandemic is a huge problem because if they get infected, you know, it's going to course through the whole system. >> yes. we have to be clear that europe has some of the same structural inequalities that we have in the united states. but some of the systems that are designed to tackle inequality have been used effectively by governments during the pandemic. so in germany, they were able to move government employees from other duties to help do contact tracing and reach out to people who have been exposed to the virus. some governments, like in spain and italy, took more control of private health to expand the capacity in their health care systems. in some countries, i think ireland, france and estonia suspended some of the co-pays. and other countries including portugal, france, belgium extended entitlement to publicly

financed health systems, including in some cases to people who are not residents of those places. europe has a lot of problems with inequality, but some of the systems that they have to try and tackle social inequality are a bit more robust than they have been and are in the united states and i think they were used more effectively by governments in some cases. >> you made an interesting point about paid sick leave. in europe in general if you were sick, you were more willing to stay home which has the effect of not infecting people because you knew you would get paid. u.s. people are reluctant to stay home because they lose wages. >> i think so. i think is really important component of policy we don't talk about. we don't just have to test people who might have been exposed to covid-19. we don't just have to do contact tracing. we don't just have to isolate people.

we have to actually support those people to be able to stay in isolation. things like paid sick leave and basic rights for employees are really important. some european countries tried to put in place or bolster the facilities they already had to protect the employees. the idea that you provide people with health care, social support, income replacement is a really important part of making any kind of advice from the government or lockdown and advice on physical distancing and lockdown really much more effective. >> holly german, pleasure to have you on. thank you. next on "gps" donald trump has shown again this week he thinks the way to keep american great is to keep immigrants out. when we come back, i'll show you with facts why he's wrong.

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now for the last look -- >> we will make america great again! >> make america great again may be trump's trademark. there's one area where america is already undoubtedly great, high tech. yet ironically it's the industry that trump is disrupting, threatening to make america's greatest companies uncompetitive by denying them their most vital resource, human capital. he put a freeze on visas that allowed tech company to recruit highly talented workers from abroad. trump claims he's putting americans first by reserving jobs for those who lost employment by the covid-19 crisis. this is nonsense. there have been no tech jobs lost. while the unemployment rate spiked in april, it's been found that the unemployment rate in the tech sector has declined since the pandemic began.

there were still over 120,000 openings in the tech sector in april. the tech industry remains in a constant desperate need for enough highly skilled workers to keep it going. we know that the american tech industry has been built by immigrants. first or second generation immigrants have either led or founded more than half of america's leading tech companies including google, amazon, oracle and apple. google and microsoft are run by immigrants and the senior ranks of all the big tech companies are filled with the world's smartest people to whom america gave a chance. it's not a surprise that trump's proclamation grew ire. cisco's ceo said you can go to

toronto and hire people there and work effectively. that's the risk we run if we eliminate these visa programs. the real winner will not be canada, but china and india. they produce hundreds of thousands of engineers every year. the best have come to study in america and stay here. now they will go back home and start those companies over there, keeping the innovation, profits and jobs far from the united states. what donald trump is really doing is making china great again. thanks to all of you for being part of my program. i'll see you next week. if you miss a show go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my itunes podcast. to give back to younger people. i think most adults will start realizing

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hello everyone. thank you so much for joining me. i'm fredricka whitfield. we begin with a grim number. there are more than 10 million cases of the coronavirus worldwide and here in the u.s. leaders are speaking out as the virus continues to surge across the country. at any moment now vice president mike pence will talk to the press in texas where cases are soaring. he arrived wearing a facemask and was greeted by texas governor greg abbott who was also wearing a mask. florida is potentially the next epicenter of the virus, governor desantis will update