tv Smerconish CNN July 25, 2020 6:00am-7:01am PDT
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does perception match reality? i'm some are some are in philadelph michael smerconish in philadelphia. these days it's tough to watch the news. last weekend, 15 people shot in a funeral in chicago. then three fishing buddies shot to death in florida. in atlanta, new orleans, washington, other cities, shooting victims have included children. for example, on july 12, in brooklyn, a 1-year-old boy killed by gunfire in his stroller while picnicking with his family. and of course, for 58 straight nights there's been protesting, sometimes, violence, rioting and looting and 16 square blocks of downtown portland. the conflict between law enforcement and the protesters is not letting up. last night, federal troops again slashed with thousands of portland protesters. in the early hours of thursday's
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morning, the city's mayor got caught up in the fray and was among those who were teargassed. three hours north in seattle, the capitol hill autonomous zone or c.h.a.z. was cleared july 1st after a series of violent events including the death of a teenager. of course, seattle and portland followed minneapolis where the killing of george floyd sparked days of tumult and protests both peaceful and violence across the country. perhaps it's no longer that president trump has sought to portray himself as the thin blue line that separates order from anarc anarchy, yesterday, kayleigh mcenany played a video so full of violence that fox news decided to pull away. >> these are not the actions of peaceful protesters. and the trump administration will not stand by and allow an
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ca anarchy in the streets. i have a small video for you what is happening live in portland. if we could play that video, that would be great. >> all right. we were not expecting that video, and our management here at fox news has decided we will pull away from that at this time. >> fox's daytime programming decision, at odds, with nighttime programming which seems to play imagery of mayhem on a loop. seeking to capitalize on this perception of chaos, the trump campaign spent $550,000 on just the first two days of the week, on a new ad. it shows an elderly woman who calls police in response to a home invader. then drops her phone before anybody answers. an earlier version of that spot shows a split screen depicting violence on one side, and an empty 911 call center on the other. the claim is that joe biden will bring about this end. the tag line, you won't be safe
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in joe biden's america. it's all disconcerting to watch, right? and it would be easy to conclude that we're living in a terribly dangerous time. but does perception match reality. frankly, i don't know. consider this story from the "oregonian" titled feds, right-wing media portland, as a city under siege. many portlanders denounced the protests saying occasional clashes do occur. no dowd there's an uptick in rioting in certain cities as we're having a national conversation about social justice and doing so ♪ midst of a pandemic. by the way, i've got zero tolerance for any of the mayhem that i've seen depicted. and i believe that local law
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enforcement needs to take control. but is the perception of widespread lawlessness supported by the data? the portrayal of violence on the streets of america in the summer of 2020 makes me wonder if we're witnessing a replay of the summer of 2001. you remember? the summer of the shark. it all began on july 6th when 8-year-old jesse arbogast had his arm ripped off from a shark. from then on, any incident involving the fish, no matter the severity, was covered and chute sni scrutinized. george burgess said he received a total of 900 that month. it was only that anybody could talk about until september 11 knocked the shark out of the news. in end, the number of attacks that year. 76 worldwide. nine fewer than the year before. the number of shark-related fatalities actually decreased
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from 12 in 2000 to five in 2001. or you can think about last year when reports in american deaths in the dominican republic can led to terrifying headlines, conspiracy theories and a crash in tourism in the country. when ten americans died in the d.r. from january to june 2019 some from natural causes some not. when you look at the raw numbers, these deaths while tragic, are not out of ordinary. 13 americans died in the d.r. in 2018 from nonactual causes. in 2017, the state department said 17 americans died on the island from nonnatural causes. while there may be suspicious circumstances around some of those deaths, the state department released a statement. and it said this. we do not publish statistics regarding natural deaths abroad. however, speaking generally, over 2.7 million u.s. citizens visit the dominican republic each year, and we have not seen
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an uptick in deaths reported to the department. bottom line this is, despite the hysteria, american deaths in the d.r. were not on the rise last year. and my point is we need to make sure our perceptions are based on statistics and not on stories. and the stats that will matter the most won't be out until next year. i want to know what you think. go to my website website @smerconish.com. and answer the question is the perception of crime in america being driven more by statistics or stories. steven pinkard, in his book, "better angels are our nature" dr. pinker argued angels are less cool than any in existence. dr. pinker is joining me.
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you heard in my commentary, what gut reaction do you have to what i just said? >> well, basic interest of it, stories drive events, it's called the availability bias. the more quickly you can recall an image, anecdote, narrative from memory, the more common you think it is. that's just the way the human mind works. and so our perception of risk and danger is driven by horrible images like shark attacks. great for me here in cape cod, i can get a spot at the beach. but then the actual dangers of falling off ladders and car crashes are far higher than getting eaten by a shark or being shot in a rampage shooting. >> so what does the data show? i had wished to bring to the cnn audience this morning a good overview of the data. and frankly much of what i was reading as a lay person seemed
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contradict contrary. it showed that violence is up in some cities but i'd rather rely on your just. how do you read those tea leaves? >> well, it looks -- and you say we're not going to get the data from this year until next year from the fbi. it looks a little bit higher than it was last year. it's still way lower than it was in the '60s, '70s, '80s, '90s. in the united states, we've seen pretty dramatic clients in violence. once in the '90s, again 2005 to 2015. it's creeping up a little bit but it's not going to take us back to how bad it was in the 1990s or toward the millennium. >> what you argue in "better angels are our nature," that book came out about a decade ago. do you still hold to the thesis? >> well, you have to break it down by different kinds of
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violence because they're not all the same. war is not the same as homicide, not the same as child abuse, so on. but many of the data continue to go down, so the rate of death of war, after creeping up after the syrian civil war has started to come back down again. and it's a fraction of what it was in the '50s, '60s, '70s. and the american homicide rate down a couple points. may have come back a little this year but not like it was a decade ago. other things like domestic violence, child abuse, even hate crimes are overall down compared to so, 10, 20 years ago. >> speak to the criticism that will come from the twitter mob for both of us that will say, you're joking, right? aren't you seeing that footage from portland, night after night after night? >> well, indeed. and if you edit footage, you can
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see it with just about anything. more people are killed by allergic reaction from bee stings from wasps and hornets than terrorist attacks. if you have a clip of one person after another of people who died from an allergic reaction, we'd all be terrified of killer bees. so a selective audience can make them afraid of anything. we don't consume statistics and i don't present them enough, the images of grab people's attention, but, of course, it's the data that determines your actual risk. >> so, i guess statistics, and this goes back to where you began, just don't have the ability to hold your attention as does an image on a phone who looks like all of our mother, and for god's sake, we wish someone would pick it up and send the police. >> indeed, that's even fictitious now that's robbing our brains.
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sports fans have no problem with statistics. people who read the business page and people who read the weather report. so, i would like to see the media report more data on trends. whenever there is a vivid, gory incident it should be presented in the context what the trends are like. overall, the trends for violence in the united states is down. it's a little bit of an up, but not as bad as 2006. >> my takeaway, dr. pinker, thus far, the statistics are a mixed bag. we really won't know until next year. and you that don't believe we're until a crisis now that equates with the '60s through the '90s, fair? >> yeah, the real crisis is covid which is probably 15 times more likely to die from covid than a homicide. there, the statistics really do rack up the danger this year. >> dr. pinker, thank you so much for your time.
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>> thank you. >> what are your thoughts? tweet me @smerconish or go to my website and we'll share throughout the course of the program. what do we have, kathryn? from facebook, the country is not on fire. stop spreading trump's lies about biden's position on the police. you're not directing that at me, are you, robert? the police in most areas are trained and doing a fine job. nobody advocates against them doing their jobs properly. i'm all for good cops. we do paint a bad brush on negativity. we need to weed out the bad seeds and the vast majority who are at that blue line keeping us safe. i agree with that sentiment. one more if i've got time. smerconish, you really should change your show to the trump defense hour. there i said it. reginald, are you blanking me? i just came on the air and i delivered a six-minute opening
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monologue. now, i'm tongue-tied, you're making my tong tieue-tied. i'm getting hostile. and i said i saw thison another and i'm worried it's not supported in data and it's scaring the crap us 0 of americans. and your take is to say, you're defending him again? come on, watch it again. i want to know what you have to say. answer this survey question -- is perception of crime in america being driven more by statistics or stories? up ahead, the u.s. government is full speed ahead in a race for a vaccine, but fastest does not always equal best. i'll ask what happens after we spend money on a different deal with a different company. and when it didn't go in trump's administration, but the
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scotus that actually handed the president more power. berkeley professor john yu joins me to discuss. and the president is taking note of his assessment. >> supreme court gave the president of the united states powers that nobody thought the president had, by approving, by doing what they did their decision on daca. my grandmother my brothers and sisters my friends for going back to school the bbq the lake the beach my place for my neighbors my community my people my country my home for him for her for them for you. ♪ if sttry new align digestivetive issuede-stress. for you. it combines align's probiotic with ashwagandha to help soothe occasional digestive upsets, plus stress that can make them worse. align digestive de-stress. from the pros in digestive health.
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global terrorism. it was not established to be the president's personal militia it would be a cold day in hell before i would consent to a unilateral, uninvited intervention in my city. john yoo is no stranger to it, and you'll recall it was he who provided enhanced interrogation methods of suspected terrorisms post september 11. john yoo zeroed in a recent supreme court ruling of block be daca on an immigration ruling. and argued to invade congress and impose on another contexts quote, according to chief justice roberts the constitution makes it easy for presidents to
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violate the law but reversing such violations difficult, especially for their successors. axios reporting that his article was spied on the desk of president trump discussing it with aides. critics were quick to pounce. ruth martin writing for "the washington post," this is ridiculous. yoo dismisses daca as illegal presidential action which is rich coming from someone who concluded that the president could not be bound by a criminal statute. john yoo, the author of a brand-new book "defender in chief." professor thank you for being here. have you everybody met a presidential power you that don't like? >> hmm, well, i'd say this one, i would say daca itself -- if you remember -- look, i sympathize with the plight of
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the dreamers, but i think that's a decision, how many people to let in the country. what kind of people in the country, that's up to congress, under the constitution. nevertheless, president obama went for and created a whole new category of people to enforce immigration laws. at the time, i thought it was unconstitutional. i thought the supreme court would immediately allow president trump, just like obama created the program, allow the next president to undo it. but as the supreme court noted said, no, actually, president trump has to use a process that's going to take two or three years. in fact, president trump hasn't been able to undo daca in his entire term in office. i think that's presidential power that's gone too far. >> what could a president do -- paint something tangible for the viewing audience maybe not familiar with the legal nitty-gritty of this, what might a president logically do, based on your intention of this decision? >> well, think about what
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president obama did. he said, i'm going to allow, roughly, anywhere from 2 to 6 million aliens in the country illegally, to stay, by not enforcing the immigration laws. suppose president trump now comes in and says i'm going to create my own new program, my own new criteria for who gets to stay in the country. mind you, i'd be happy with that i'd like to see more migrant as allowed to stay. i'm going to bring it skill-based, if you bring assets, you can stay. if you are in mathematics in an american university, you can stay. i'm not not going to enforce immigration laws. all i'm saying in the opinion piece, michael, if the rule is good enough for president obama, why is it it good enough for president trump? why can't presidents of both
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parties, and the supreme court has said that it takes years to undo those kinds of programs. >> and i would discourage viewers from either cheering or opposing that, based on whether they like or dislike president trump. because if it's president biden, he'll be able to do likewise. i have a different question for you on the subject of presidential power. if president trump were to call john yoo at berkeley now and say, chicago's gone too far. i want to send in federal troupes to quell the violence, what would you tell him about his authority to do so. >> first, berkeley, would probably fire me if they let such a phone call get to my office. >> right. >> second it goes to your question, what can presidents do or not do? presidents led the federal government don't have the constitutional power and authority to maintain law and order in every town in america. as you noted in your first segment, that is primarily the job of state and local
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officials. the federal law is, a., protecting federal buildings and personnel. and b., interstate groups, enforcing the drug laws. if a federal rule in chicago has to happen, it has to be in those two areas. the president doesn't have presidential authority to go around the country and try to reduce murder or crime rate. that's up to the elected officials in chicago, illinois, or here in philadelphia and in pennsylvania. >> okay. i shared with the audience the axios reporting that your piece in national review was spied on the resolute desk. by the way, first of all, do you know is that true? >> well, people are always criticizing president trump for not reading enough. now, they don't want him to read anymore. i don't see why it's a surprise. i suspect president trump probably reads articles about presidential power. i assume he was upset about the
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supreme court decision. people from the white house did call me about this question right after the piece occurred. maybe they slipped on to his desk and asked him to read it. >> okay. so that's a confirmation that they are paying attention to your advice. did i just then understand you to say that the answer is, if he wants to go into chicago, i assume i can apply that to seattle or portland or any other city, only untin various narrow basis can he do so, protecting a federal courthouse, or i guess you were implying some kind of a rico-basis for crime activity. but that's awfully defined, isn't it? >> yes. and federal officials need the kind of cooperation from state and local officers to be effective. >> so, i'm hearing you pretty much come to the same conclusion, if i can go full circle. maybe in less colorful language,
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than secretary/governor tom ridge shared with me on the radio program that the president couldn't do it? >> i don't fully agree with governor ridge, because he said he would never send in troops or law enforcement unless he had the permission of the governor. that's not quite right, either. just like philadelphia can be a sanctuary city and not cooperate with the feds. state officials can't block federal authorities from coming in and enforcing law. that's a lesson we learned in the civil war. but to be effective, you want cooperation between both. >> professor yoo, good luck with the gook. than the book. >> thank you. >> i want to remind folks to go to my website, answer the question, is perception of crime in america being driven more by statistics or by stories? up ahead in a race for the
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ready to take it. joining me now is gerald posner, he's the author of the recent book "pharma, greed, lies and the poisoning of america." why is america cutting these deals now? >> michael, they're cutting them now because they want to make sure when the vaccine is approved there's no question that americans will be able to get it. based on the french, the government cave a quarter millions, the pharmaceutical company to develop the vaccine. and president macron called sanofi's ceo in paris saying you're a french company, you're going to give it to the french first. so sanofi agreed. they don't necessarily put you in line, you got to sign contracts with them and that's what they're doing in the trump
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administration. >> well, that sounds pretty forward thinking. are we making deals with companies, where we owe them the money, even if we don't come up with it? >> no, the good news, not even government negotiators as bad as they can sometimes be get a deal that has to be even if approved by the fda. only if they get a vaccine that's safe and effective. that's good news. otherwise, we keep the money, they, the government, they're spreads taxpayer money out over a number of players. $4 billion of taxpayer money has been flooded into a number of companies because the hope is one of them will be first to cross the line. we don't know which one. as a matter of fact, $2 billion has gone to two different companies, moderna and nova, that's remarkable. we're gambling a lot of money sometimes on these companies on real hope that it's going to happen, but we're not sure. >> okay. that begs another question. so, what if we pick a winner, a
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company that develops the first vaccine. but all of a sudden, another company comes out with a more effective vaccine? what does that do to the dynamic? >> yeah, you know, the fortunate part for vaccine makers is it's not like blood pressure where you go into your doctor and you get your blood pressure reading and it's an exact figure. vaccines you can argue a little bit about which one is better or worse than another. for instance, one may produce more natural antibodies that will help the body fight off the coronavirus. another may produce t-cell response which is another way to boost the body's ability to fight off the coronavirus. one may have fewer side effects. but it's very difficult. let's say pfizer crosses the line first. we start using the pfizer vaccine. all of a sudden, you got johnson & johnson with their vaccine and say ours is bit. maybe the immune is 15 months versus 12 months. gives you less fever or a headache but not where you say i
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bought the wrong vaccine. >> gerald, i feel like i want to ask, if we build it, they will come. roll the tape. >> the way it works, if he's the first one, they'll say he's so selfish, he wanted to get the vaccine first. other people would say, hey, that's a very brave thing. if they wanteded me to, if they thought it was first, i'd take it first. you do know if i take it first, either way i lose, right? if i take it first -- if i don't take it, they'll say he doesn't believe in the program. >> he's probably right in that assessment. it reminds me that i did a call segment on my radio show recently, and i was very surprised at the high volume of callers who were dubious about a vaccine. and their willingness to take it. and they were not anti-vaxers. they're just concerned that this is happening so quickly and at warp speed.
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your thoughts. >> the good news is it's happening at warp speed. the bad news it's happening at warp speed. that means sometimes, you don't know what the side effects are until you give it out in large numbers. that happened in 1976, after we gave 40 million inoculations we realized it was a neurological symptom that affected people. and it was terrible. but the good news we don't have to have 100% of the country inoculated with the vaccine to get herd immunity. we need 50% or 60%. the question is will there be 50% or 60%, those with the elderly, able to take it, if they can get that number, across the country, then we get the benefits of the vaccine. >> very quick, final question. in your book pharma, you're often critical of big pharma on the pricing subject.
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how is the trump administration doing in the deals they're cutting for pricing of a vaccine? >> well, the drug companies have a different definition of fair when it comes to pricing than we have, especially when taxpayers are paying for it. just last tuesday, michael, before congress, some of the heads of these companies were asked directly will you give it to the government at cost since we've given you billions of dollars. they remarkably said, no. merck said no, moderna said no. and even johnson & johnson said we won't charge for a profit during the pandemic. so pfizer who does the first deal with the government now, they could make in 2021 about $25 billion at the price they're charging, $19.50 a dose. that rivals their biggest selling drug of all time, lipitor, heart medication. so there's big money in this. pfizer and other companies haven't told us the cost. we don't know if their price is fair or if they're gouging.
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that's unfortunate. >> i hear you. if i also hear you saying 20 bucks a shot, that doesn't sound outrageous. >> no, it doesn't sound outrageous. the uk has done a deal with astrazeneca, three or four dollars a dose. glaxosmithkline, if theirs is under 10, are we getting charged double? i'm not sure. maybe that's a worthwhile price. pfizer, i will say to their credit, they're the only company in the group that has not taken taxpayer money. all the rest of them have taken big amounts of money from the federal government. >> to be continued. gerald, thank you. >> thank you, michael. what do we have kathryn? from twitter, i think, on this subject. not taking a shot, literally for me, it's social distancing and mask for the next few -- you're not going to get the shot.
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social distancing and the mask for the next few years once a reliable vaccine is available. yeah, there is a mind-set of folks out there who say i'm not going to do it. if you don't do it, you are, i would argue, delaying the real herd immunity opportunity that's out there. on pricing issue, i just want to say this quickly, i can only hope we're soon having an argument as to whether $20 is too much because that would mean we have a vaccine. please make sure you go to my website and answer a provocative question i may say so myself, is perception of crime in america being driven more by statistics or stories? still to come, in the national moment of racial reckoning many shops around the country have felt move to put signs out front in support of black lives matter. does this engender goodwill or.
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matter sign outside of your store, does it help or hurt business? the signs which have been multiplying in the wake of the killing of george floyd by police have been a flash point. in dover new hampshire, the owners told they had to take down their blm, rather than comply, they announced they would be shuttering the business for good. in houston, a black lives matter billboard led to him getting death threats. a maskless patron at a coffee shop in brooklyn, new york, demands the removal of the blm sign saying it was racist. in washington, a sign posted saying if you support antifa or blm, please shop else. and then the sign was changed to all lives matter and us.
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is getting involved with politics bad for business? my next guest is a veteran of these wars, kristin martin. she recently but a blm sign outside of her shop, the cottage beauty lounge in eastern massachusetts, south of boston, which is 90% white. kristin, thanks for being here. what happened after you put up the sign? >> hi, thank you. they were stolen. i had four signs that were stolen each week. the first time i put it out, that week, it was stolen. the following week the same thing. well, then, you know, 3, 3 1/2, 4 weeks, each sign was taken. >> was the first responder support sign taken as well? or just the black lives matter sign? >> no, just the black lives matter sign was taken. >> what kind of reaction did you get from customers, or from people who otherwise called your shop?
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>> i had a lot of support. but we have had -- we did have a client that did not want to come in. and will no longer be coming back when she saw the sign. we did try to explain to her why the sign was there. i have a son who is black and i have friends and family who are black, and the sign is there to support them. it's not connected to a terrorist group or any other organization. >> i know that your motivation was a sense of social justice, that you weren't motivated by whether this would help or hurt the cash register. nevertheless, did you think, when you put up the sign, that this might have an impact on your salon? >> no. i didn't. i never -- i didn't think of it. i put it up to show support. you know, like i said, i have a
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son who's black, and i want him to know that his life matters. and, no, i did not expect to see the pushback that i've seen on social media, the messages that i've received since. so, yeah, it's shocking. >> so, what now? >> what now? i keep moving forward. i'm still going to support my son, my friends and my family. and the people in the community that are black. and, you now, i'm not afraid to, you know, take whatever comes my way, as a result of it. i believe in -- i believe in this. >> kristan, i wish you good things. thank you for being here. >> oh, thank you, thank you. still ahead, your best and worst tweets and facebook
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comments. and we'll give you the final results of the survey question. you've got one more shot to vote. smerconish.com is the location. this is the question -- is perception of crime in america being driven more by statistics or stories? looking for superior protection against uv damage and early skin aging? try neutrogena ultra sheer. it provides exceptional cellular protection from burning uvb rays and aging uva rays. save 25% at neutrogena.com.
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@smerconish. is perception of crime in america being driven more by statistic r os stories. lopsided. 92% say it's the stories. maybe it's always the stories. what do we have in terms of social media reaction? smerconish, speaking of sharks, you jumped one with that comparison. i don't think so, donna. i don't think so. look, when the data comes out from the fbi next year, if you remember, look back at this segment, my opening commentary and say did he blow it because the stats were off the chart. or you know what, he's right. it was like the dominican republic in the summer of the shark. what's next? i like the humor, though. the violence going on in this country is real. you're trying to whitewash it. frank, not trying to whitewash anything. showed you all the footage. acknowledge that there are issues that have taken place in a defined area of portland n a defined area of seattle.
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acknowledged 15 people getting shot in chicago. but whether it justifies getting worked into a lather, particularly among seniors, that i question. fears a big motivator because it works in elections. shame on me, forget it. shame on it you for criticizing my willingness to think openly on the subject. what else? smerconish, it's like willy horton at 3:00 a.m. well, reptile, there's nothing new about this as i just said to the last responder. it works. i mean, that's why we do it. yes. willie horton spinning round and round, wasn't he in a vestibule d doorway. here is the bottom line big picture view. the president is losing the election as things stand now. there's just a mountain of data suggesting it's the case. yes, i know what the data said four years ago. and he views his ticket to
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turning it around as two different things. cognition and crime. the person, woman, man, dog, tv routine was laying the predicate so when joe misspeaks in the fall, and of course he will, we all do, then you say, boy, maybe the president was right. and crime, in portraying himself as the thin blue line. and all that i'm saying in my commentary is we need to see the data to know whether things are as out of control as they are being portrayed by the white house and by its favorite network. that's it. thanks for watching. i'll see you next week. ♪ companies will need the right tools. that's why salesforce created work.com it's an all-new suite of apps, expertise, and services. to manage this crisis today, and thrive tomorrow. everything companies need to return to the workplace.
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♪ good morning. it is saturday, july 25th, i'm abby phillip. >> i'm victor blackwell. you're in the "cnn newsroom." across the country this morning, new record-high coronavirus cases in some states. there are plateauing numbers in other states but it all underscores the uncertainty around allowing kids to go back in the classrooms in the fall. >> yeah. the world health organization says a record number of cases were reported in a 24-hour period just yesterday. 284,196 cases and for the fourth-straight day, the u.s. reported more than 1,000 daily coronavirus deaths. the cdc says reopening schools for in-person learning in most
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