coronavirus case count climbs and climbs. >> we're drowning. we're absolutely drowning here, overwhelming number of cases. >> finally, the president takes notice. >> it will probably unfortunately get worse before it gets better. >> plus, trouble signs in plain sight. why did this summer surge happen? >> you have people who are in denial, compounded by this division across the country, and then you have government incompeten incompetence. >> and 100 days to the election, advantage biden, big time. >> 3 1/2 years, i don't think any administration has accomplished so much. >> he quit on this country. this election is not just about him, it is about us. and welcome to "inside politics." i'm john king, to our viewers in the united states and around the world, thank you for sharing your sunday.

the coronavirus summer surge breaking records, and stressing hospitals. >> i have been working today 128 continuous days. six and 10 hours a day. people say how can your body do that? i guess we're running on adrenaline. last week i had to sign the largest number of death certificates that i have ever signed in my entire life. >> the surge also disrupting plans to send children back to school, and it is putting the economy back in retreat. layoffs on the rise again at a critical moment. the presidential election is 100 days from today. the coronavirus election. new numbers releasing now may clear president trump in deep trouble because americans give him failing grades when it comes to this pandemic. arizona, florida, michigan, you remember, key to the trump 2016 win. brand-new polling shows the president trailing in all three. let's look at the numbers. you look at the straight numbers right up in arizona. traditionally red state, joe

biden on top by four points. that's close. the democrat on top in arizona, 49-45. florida, always the battleground of battlegrounds, always close, 51-46. five-point advantage into the last 100 days. that's close, within reach for the president, without a doubt. another state he won in 2016, 100 days out, he's behind. 51-46. michigan, 52-40. the president of the united states down 12 points in the blue collar industrial midwestern state that was one of the big surprises of 2016. arizona, florida and michigan all part of the president's map four years ago. why are voters thinking about change? because of his handling of this pandemic. the dots are clearly connected. in arizona, 35% approve of the president's performance dealing with the coronavirus. 6 in 10 arizonans say they disapprove. in florida, about the same, almost 4 in 10, 39% approve, 57% disapprove. in michigan, 36% approve, just shy of 6 in 10. 59% disapprove of how the president is handling the

nation's giant challenge at the moment. the other big issue in the news in recent months, policing, race relations, racial inequality, the president under water in arizona, 35% approve, 59% disapprove. florida, pretty similar, 37, 57% disapprove. michigan, 47 approve, 59% disapprove. how does this affect the trump map? let's go back to 2016. remember the big surprise, the president gets 307 electoral votes, flips some states here from blue to red. look at our new polling now. suggests michigan out of reach. suggests advantage for the democrats in florida. advantage for biden in arizona as well. we learn in the past week, wisconsin is blue at the moment, pennsylvania is blue at the moment, north carolina leaning blue at the moment. six states right there, just stop there for a second. six states right there. if those states went blue, president is in a fight, take them off the map, look what

happens. president would drop to 205. if you just move those six states, just move those to toss up, the president drops to 205, you need 270 to win. joe bide withn with 232. if you think about the polling, our polling number one suggests this is leaning d, recent poll shows this one leaning d. that's two of them. joe biden to the finish line there. remember this as well, a lot of democrats say wait a minute, cnn leans georgia and texas red, polls in those states that suggest they could be in play. this map for the president right now 100 days out a very different map if you look back at 2016. which is why he says, sure, there is a pandemic. look more broadly at my performance and joe biden says think long and hard about the last five months. >> i think the american people will judge us on this, but they'll judge us on the economy that i created, and that already was created. >> quit on you.

he's quit on this country. the president is supposed to care to lead, to take responsibility, to never give up. >> with us this sunday to share the reporting and their insights, maggie haberman of "the new york times," tolu olorunnipa. we saw this past week an attempt to pivot, an attempt to be more responsible in the briefings about the coronavirus. he was better. i'm not going to say he was great. we could break the fact check machine with some of the things. does team trump believe in the past week he at least laid the building blocks of a comeback? >> they absolutely do. team trump is very happy with what happened in the past week. they think that if he can stick to this, again, big word is if, if he can narrowly focus on the coronavirus when he does briefings, if he can stop fighting with reporters, if he can stop, you know, wallowing in

self-pity, which he has been doing for many months now, they think they can be in position to have a chance in the fall. whether that's true or not depends on who you talk to. you talk to some republicans who think basically the president only has another four weeks until the convention which is going to be very scaled back to get himself in position. by the time we get to september, it is probably too late, and, look, history told us these pivots as you put it tend to pivot for about two weeks maximum and then revert to form. if the president is not getting praise as he sees it for what he's doing, so let's see what happens. >> key point. and to add to your point about the timing here, i'll talk about this later in the program, the election is 100 days, voting starts in six weeks in part because of the pandemic, a lot more early voting. so if the president changes minds, he has to do it before people mail in or cast their vote. tolu, the president is trying two things this week, he's trying to show he's more in touch, more in command, more hands on when it comes to the coronavirus. he's acknowledging, yes, could get worse before it gets better. he's saying, a lot of people out

there think wearing a mask is patriotic, that's a shift. and he's trying to turn more and more attention to law and order. the president says there is disruption in american cities led by democrats. he's sending in federal agents. just last night we see protests in seattle and portland getting ugly. we can show some pictures of those. if you listen to the president, if you listen to the president, he says, yeah, coronavirus is one issue, but voters should think about law and order. listen. >> the effort to shut down policing in their own communities led to a shocking explosion of shootings, killings, murders and heinous crimes of violence. this bloodshed must end, this bloodshed will end, will work every single day to restore public safety, protect our nation's children and bring violent perpetrators to justice. >> do you agree or disagree with the president's perspective, and

his actions, of course public safety is an issue, of course these protests are of concern, but there is also a political aspect to this, the president is trying to turn your attention, if you will, look over here, see the coronavirus, may not like the job performance, he's trying to turn you over here. >> yeah, that's exactly right. president is using a well worn political playbook saying, you may not like me much, but i am the person who can protect you, i can reinstate law and order in your neighborhoods, he pushed forward a movement this past week to essentially repeal a law that was passed or regulation passed by the obama administration to diversify the suburb. the president saying i'll protect the housewives in the suburbs, he's not being subtle in what he's doing. he's trying to convert suburban moderate voters who left the presidency and try to bring them back by telling them don't focus on the coronavirus, look at the economy, he continues to have relatively strong numbers on the economy, look at the economy and

law and order and see in the democrats someone who would completely up end your neighborhood and bring crime and all of these horrible things to your doorstep and it is very clear what he's trying to do. he has 100 days to make it work, we'll see if it works. but it is clear that on the coronavirus he does not want people talking or thinking about that for now. >> it is harder to make that case about the other guy when you're the president of the united states. donald trump businessman, donald trump outsider, donald trump challenger, donald trump disrupter in 2016. it is just harder to be that person when you are in charge of the united states government and see the depth of the challenge. if you look at our new polling, in arizona, florida and michigan, women, for example, clinton won them by four points in arizona, four points in florida and 11 points by michigan. that was her base in 2016. but look here, biden up 17 in arizona among women, up 11 in florida among women, up 29 among women in michigan. flip it over, white college graduates, this is largely the fight for the suburbs now, the president carried them by six

points in arizona, 27 in florida, 8 points in michigan. biden up by 15 in arizona, trump up just by 3 in florida, biden up by 25 in michigan. this is why it is so hard for the president. don't count him out. he proved in 2016 he can defy political gravity. his problems are so many, it is hard to fix them all at once. >> i don't know the president can defy political gravity the second time. if the president were to win, it is because events intervened one way or another and changed the climate. i don't think there is evidence that the president can actually change, we have never seen that. those arizona numbers in particular are really ugly for the president. indicative of how the other day he said something, the country is in great shape if you don't look at the south and the west. that's half the country. so, yes, while he's having this new tone, he's still providing false information and that's one thing that hurt him repeatedly with voters.

he his campaign privately pretty bearish about michigan. privately they still think they can do okay in florida. that's likely to be close. unless there is a huge blowout everywhere. arizona was a key piece of his map before and if he doesn't change the numbers, he's got a problem. >> to your point, the question is the president thinks using tweets and using his words he can change reality. this one is so personal. the coronavirus is so personal for people because it is their life, their safety, their jobs, their kids and their school. if you look at the polling in arizona, six in ten think the worst is yet to come. in michigan, which, remember, was an early crisis point, only 41%, these two big states, tolu, when the president is saying it is better, it is better, it is better, people don't buy it, because the truth is in their state, in particular, it is not. >> yeah, for quite a while in may and in june the president tried to sell people on the idea that this is behind us, that we were moving on, we were transitioning to greatness, and

it was clear that the virus was spreading at an exponential rate in a lot of these states. people see what is happening on the ground, they see their hospitals being filled up, they see their mayors and governors trying to help -- crying for help from the federal government and they realize the president's spin is not actually fixing anything. so a lot of people close to the president have advised him to take a more somber tone, focus more on the fact that people are dying and that the federal government needs to be seen as taking a proactive stance and i think that's what we saw in part, the results this past week with president retaking this position and the white house daily briefings and trying to show that he is in command of this. it is clear, maggie said, he often will do something for a week and then lose interest. we have seen him lose interest in the coronavirus in the past and it will be hard for him to continue to focus on this when we see it, people dying, tens of thousands of infection and no sign his actions are actually making a difference. >> we'll see in the week ahead if what we saw this past week continues and we're counting

down now from 100 days to -- maggie, tolu, appreciate you joining us on this important day. up next, the coronavirus summer surge strains hospitals and disrupts back to school plans. as we go to break, the nation this weekend beginning a long farewell to the civil rights icon john lewis, including a procession across the historic bridge, the edmund pettus bridge. >> he lived with the never-ending desire to help others. he often told us if you see something wrong, do something. his actions showed us just that. >> i remember the day when john left home. mother told him not to get in trouble. not to get in the way and be particular. we all know that john got in trouble, got in the way, but it was good trouble. ♪ you are the wind beneath our wings ♪

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for them for you. ♪ the number is numbing enough, the united states coronavirus case count hit 4 million this past week. and how we got there, that only adds to the weight of this. let's look at the latest numbers. if you look at the 50 state map, this is a better map than it was last sunday. not a great map, a better map. 23 states heading in the wrong direction, more cases reported this week when you compare it to last week's total. 23 states going up. 20 states holding steady. that's the yellow or beige. the southeast, mostly holding

steady. seven states going down. importantly including at the moment texas and arizona. more numbers in a minute. texas and arizona go down on the map today. the question is can they sustain that in the week ahead. california holding steady. florida holding steady. you think about the big drivers of the summer surge, that is encouraging at the moment anyway. we'll see if it holds up. let's look at the curve of new cases and this is why this gets so depressing. the summer surge right here. if you go back to april and into may, drove it down, memorial day from may 1st, 34,000 new cases. by memorial day, just shy of 19,000 new cases, pushing the curve down. then, the summer surge or spike, call it what you will, by july 4th, 45,000. this last week 73,000 plus on friday. heading in the wrong direction, are we plateauing? that's the challenge for the days and the week ahead. how we got to 4 million is stunning, if you will. april 1st, april 28th is when we hit 1 million. right? then it took six weeks to get to 2 million. then it took a month to get to 3 million and 15 days.

to go from 3 to 4. the numbers growing at a pace that is alarming. now, let's look at these right now. new york was the leader for a long time. california and florida have now passed new york in terms of the number of cases, texas closing in, likely to do so if not in the next week, in the next week or two. that goes up. listen to dr. deborah birx, she sees evidence that a plateau is coming in the states driving this summer surge. let's see. the numbers lead you up and down. florida, roller coaster here, is this going back up again or will it flatten out in the week ahead? florida was coming down, couple of bad days at the end of the week, let's watch it as we go forward. california, some evidence of leveling off, especially in the last couple of days, the challenge is does it continue into the next week? sometimes you come out of a weekend you get testing results and the count goes back up. there is some level -- some evidence california is leveling off, but at a high baseline and that can be a problem. texas and arizona, again, both on a bit of a roller coaster in

recent days. look at both states. texas, has come down a little bit. still looking at a baseline of 10,000 cases. the question is you see the uptick, what happens in the week ahead if you get this under control. arizona appeared to be coming down on the seven-day average, it is still coming down now. but two weekend spikes there, the question is that a blip or does that carry over to the next week? no matter who you look at it, you're at a high baseline, why dr. anthony fauci says, governor, governor, governor, pay attention. >> you don't necessarily have to go all the way back to a complete shutdown. but you certainly have to call a pause and maybe even a backing up a bit. what my advice would be, time-out, and maybe go back too a prior checkpoint and from that point try to proceed in a very measured, prudent way according to the guidelines. >> with us again this sunday to share their expertise,

dr. ashish jha and dr. megan ranney from brown university. thank you both again for coming in on a sunday. dr. ranney, i'll start with you, he says pause, take a step back. you signed on to a letter, about 150 doctors and public health professionals saying shut it down, start it over, do it right, dear decisionmakers, hit the reset button. dr. fauci says pause, you say reset button, anything in the numbers that convinces you or at least getting to a plateau and what do you mean by reset? go all the way back? >> so, john, you pointed out that the number of states across the country have hit that yellow or plateau. but that plateau is still at a tremendously high level. that is not an acceptable level of infections, hospitalizations or deaths for arizona, florida and other states that have now quote unquote stabilized, right? what i'm talking about is a set the reset button is pretty

similar to dr. fauci's pause. it is let's do a smart shutdown, restrict bars, let's stop going out into crowded public spaces, and let's do that until we have the public health infrastructure that we have been talking about that we need. the testing, the protective equipment, the contact tracing, the things that we need to get not just from yellow, but back to green where the economy can safely reopen, and where people can go out and get their kids back to school, and do the things that they want to do without being worried that they and their loved ones are going to catch this infection and potentially end up in the hospital or dead. >> so, dr. jha, to that point, it is -- forgive me, dr. ranney, it is unlikely a lot of doctors will agree with you in the short-term, we'll see, but they have made their decisions and now they're trying to do triage. but help explain to people what it means, what it took 99 days to get to 1 million cases. it took just 28 days to get to 3

million cases. and then it took just 15 days to go from 3 million to 4 million. what does that tell you about the patient, if you will? >> yeah, john, thank you for having me on. what that tells you is this is exponential growth, this is how the disease spreads. and this is what happens when you don't put in the control measures that we need to put in to keep the virus under control in large parts of the country. so the question is when will we hit 5 million or 6 million? all of us hope we stretch out that time period, there is no reason we need to be hitting these benchmarks as quickly as we are. it will really depend on us, depend on the kinds of policies that dr. ranney was talking about, keeping bars closed, really limiting indoor gatherings and i know -- i've been saying this and i sound like a broken record, we have got to fix testing in america. we still don't have a testing infrastructure that our country needs and our people deserve. >> and yet, and yet, and, again, this decision will be made by

mayors and local school superintendents and the like, you had again from the cdc and the president of the united states and you can hear the president here talking this week about, you know what, the best place for a child is in a classroom. >> a lot of people are saying they don't transmit, they don't catch it easily, don't bring it home easily and if they do catch it, they get better fast. >> we know children under 18 are less sick. but there are some that suffer terrible consequences if they have underlying conditions. we certainly know from other studies that children under 10 do get infected. it is just unclear how rapidly they spread the virus. >> so i've chosen dr. ranney to listen to the doctors ahead of the politicians. dr. birx sometimes i think is trying to help the president politically, but saying we just don't know, so what would you do, what would your decision be about schools? >> so i am a parent of two school aged kids. i desperately want my kids to go back to school. i agree with the president that

the best place for kids is back in school. but that's with the condition that it is safe for them, and safe for the teachers and nurses and other staff at the schools. so in order to send kids become to school, we have to as doctor jha has said have adequate testing, we have to have adequate control of the virus. so we have to have a positivity rate of less than 5% in our communities. and we have to be able to put all those measures in place in schools, like masking and ventilation and separating kids out, in order to not transmit it between kids and teachers or between teachers and teachers. when the spread gets too high in a community, when we prioritize opening bars and shops over opening schools, we are going to have to make the choice to not send kids back to school in order to protect them, their families and the families of the people that work at those schools so we have a choice to make, which do we care about more? >> so, dr. jha, to that point,

wrap the conversation, what is the single biggest thing the president or washington could do right now, right now, to change the direction? >> if the president really wanted kids back in school this fall, we would have a national strategy to bring the levels of virus down across the country. that probably means pulling things way back in the hot spots, and then helping the other parts of the country beef up their school systems in terms of the things dr. ranney talked about, reventilations, masks, e cetera. think i think we can do this. there is a lot of hard work ahead and we have to do that if we want to let our kids get back to school. >> that would be a change, i'll leave it at that. not to editorial too much on this sunday. dr. jha, dr. ranney, appreciate your insights. behind us by memorial day was the president's predictions. why were so many signs of coronavirus trouble ignored? i want a sugar cookie... wait... i want a bucket of chicken... i want... ♪

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get the security, unlimited data and wifi coverage you need. plus, xfi customers can add xfi complete for only $11 a month. call or visit a store today. i thought we would have sound from the president there, president five months ago today made one of the many early statements to prove he wasn't doing his coronavirus homework. we all live the pain of march and april, ppe shortages, a testing mess, more. and then there was this. >> if you look at the trends today that i think by memorial day weekend we will largely have this coronavirus epidemic behind us. >> no, memorial day in fact was the gateway to the summer surge. just shy of 19,000 new cases a

day back then, little under 50,000 by the fourth of july, and in recent days we set some records in the ballpark of 70,000 new cases including higher than that. why things got so bad is a very good question. especially given the lessons of march and april. and especially because team trump saw it coming. and says it passed the warning signs on to governors and mayors. our next guest wrote about this, in late may. waiting for a rise in hospitalizations or deaths is too late. by the time these lagging indicators rise, the outbreak is well under way. dr. leana wen is the former health commissioner for baltimore. you did see this coming if they didn't do things. i'm not looking to beat people up here, i'm trying to figure out what went wrong. if you to listen to dr. birx, she says we meet all the time, we watch the positivity rates, 3% to 3.5%, that's your first warning. we pick up the phone, we call the mayors, the governors, we can put arizona on the screen for you as one example. if they have this data, and you watch this, the highlighted

dates there, monday, she says every monday a governor gets a report. you see may, june 1st, two weeks later on june 15th, 6.5 to 14%. at one point, june 29th, 40% positivity in arizona. if they have the data, and they have these reports, and they're giving it to the governors and the public officials, why isn't anything being done? is it a communication breakdown, an action breakdown? >> i think there are a lot of problems here, john, so you look at the very beginning of this outbreak back in february, lot failures when it came to not having a national testing strategy. maybe it is understandable at the very beginning, but i can't believe that it is july and we still are coming into a situation where tests are taking 10 to 14 days to come back. it was a national disgrace then, but we are facing those same

issues now and coming into flu season in the fall, it is only going to get worse. so i think that the breakdown is, number one, we don't have clear consistent messaging, the trump administration tried to paint a rosy picture when actually what they should be doing is telling the truth and presenting the data. we do not have consistent national leadership and national strategy by now. i think the third point is lack of data. what we need is real time data and that's presented not only to the mayors and governors, but to everyone, why keep it a secret? we need to have the information at our fingertips or otherwise we're flying blind while trying to navigate this very complicated situation. >> one other problem back then is even if they were passing this information on to the governors, the white house because of the president's actions abandoned their own reopening guidelines. they set clear guidelines and states blew through them and the white house said nothing about it. dr. birx said she's traveling this week to several cities, there are a list of 12 cities she says covid cases are showing

warning signs. they include the city where you are right now, where you were once the health commissioner, baltimore. this is great. if they have this data and going to meet with local officials and have a plan of action to slow the spread, stop the spread, flatten the curve that's great. listen to the current baltimore health commissioner. >> on the ground we have seen an increase in our number of cases. when we look at the week of july 12th and a week later on july 19th we did see some increase in that number of cases. but we weren't aware that we were on this list created by dr. birx. >> we were not aware that we're on this list created by dr. birx. help me. help me. forget democrat/republican. forget 100 days to an election we're in the middle of a pandemic. the white house says it has this important data, baltimore is on the list and baltimore is not told? >> yeah, why is this a big secret, john? i mean, really, what we need to have is everyday we need to have

a presentation by our federal officials, by the cdc, about what is happening, what is the state of the outbreak what are the areas that are of the most concern. we need to see this real time dashboard of metrics like what is the test positivity rate, how many tests are coming back, what percentage of tests are coming back within 48 hours. over 48 hours, the tests are essentially worthless. how many cases, what percentage of cases are actually being traced, so we know whether contact tracing is sufficient. we need to have those data at our fingertips so we can make decision. as parents, our administrators are deciding about schools reopening, we need that data available too. it shouldn't be a -- it shouldn't be revealed over the national news to local officials that they are -- that their city is of concern, but it also should not be a big secret that is kept away from the american people either. >> it is hard to coordinate your actions if you can't coordinate your communications, dr. wen, as always, grateful for your insights.

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four weeks ago this week, 100 days to the 2016 election, there was this. >> i had one of the great temperaments, i have a winning temperament. honestly she lies a lot and she should tell the truth. i honestly believe if she told the truth, because she made some reference to my campaigning, i've had a beautiful -- i've had a flawless campaign. you'll be writing books about this campaign. >> maybe run for something again? >> i don't plan on that, george. but i learned a long time ago, you don't say anything for absolute certainty. >> that's pretty remarkable to look at. donald trump was the challenger back then. embattled incumbent now.

democrat joe biden now enters the final 100 days of the 2020 race as the clear favorite. but with giant tests ahead, including picking his running mate and critically proving democrats are properly organized for an election that will have unprecedented early and mail-in voting because of the coronavirus pandemic. let's discuss with david axelrod, the lead strategist for two obama victories, the host of "the ax files" here on cnn. joe biden will have his convention virtual. he has a big decision about his running mate. my question for you, in this campaign like no other, we have done many, not like this, are the democrats, because we know the trump campaign has money, we know they have a good data operation, are the democrats properly organized for this? we can show you a map, we will count the votes 100 days from today, but the voting starts in six weeks. a lot of the states, the darker the state on the map there, the earlier the voting starts.

so you see pennsylvania, wisconsin, minnesota, north carolina, some pretty big battleground states where the voting gets under way in just several weeks. are they organized? >> look, i think that's a big -- that is a big point that every campaign needs to understand and everyone who is watching it needs to understand. the election begins in 55 days. not 100 days. and this year i think the vast majority of votes may be cast before election day. one of the questions, john, is how many weeks after election day will we be counting ballots. you may be standing at that big board for a very long time. but, you know, i think that she has been focussed from the moment she got there on this challenge, which is how do you prepare for an election like this where many people are going to vote early, are going to vote by mail, and how do you adjust

the calendar which starts very early? i think the organizationally it is a challenge for the biden campaign, but politically it is a challenge for trump that voting starts early because he's in a big hole right now. and he's got to dig out of it and people are going to start voting sooner than he probably would like. >> right. another democratic strategist, someone you know well, doug soznik wrote a memo, he put it this way, he said like austin powers, trump hasn't been able to grasp how much the world around him has changed. he thinks his path is to double down on 2the 2016 persian of himself. by the time trump launches his october surprise the majority of the country will have already voted. to his point about trump trying to run -- rerun 2016, you do see that, the law and order message now aimed at the suburbs. can an -- how different is it that -- put away your partisan hat for a minute.

donald trump is the incumbent. you ran the obama 2012 re-election campaign. how different is a re-elect from a challenger campaign? >> it is very different because you are the incumbent and the race is very much about you and the virus has made it even more about trump. and, you know, trump was a vote for change in 2016. and overwhelmingly people who wanted change, he also overwhelmingly won voters who didn't like either candidate. this time biden is leading overwhelmingly among voters who give each candidate a negative rating. that's a big challenge for trump because his whole strategy is to take biden down and make him unacceptable. but if voters find both of them unacceptable, they're going to default to biden this time and not trump. there are a lot of challenges for him as an incumbent, the biggest one, john, is that he may want to dictate what this election is about, but nature is dictating what this election is

about. this election is about the coronavirus and in every bit of polling you see, his ratings are miserable on that issue, and it is very much connected to his vote and his overall job rating and that's a problem for trump because it is not likely to change much between now and november. >> our new numbers today back your point up exactly. he's so underwar ter on the coronavirus. 100 days out last time was hillary clinton's high water mark, the cnn poll of polls up 10 points. that's her best performance. obama was up 5, about the same on election day. obama in 2008 up 5, built a little bit. back in 2004, john kerry up, a small swing in favor of the incumbent, george w. bush, and in 2000, you saw a huge swing, george bush won the election, al gore won the popular vote. you see the different challenge here is if you're the incumbent, how -- is it easier or harder to move the numbers?

>> i think it is harder because people know you. and so his task right now, trump's task right now again is to try and make biden an unacceptable alternative to him. voters made a judgment about trump and many want to fire trump. the question for trump is can he change the thinking between now and november? he's trying to do it particularly in the suburbs with this law and order message, but that may be driving some voters away from him, who feel like he's enflaming rather than calming a nation that feels like it is out of control. so i think there are a lot of challenges for trump. i would not rest easily if i were biden. there is time left. we already have seen in the last four months that the unforeseen can overtake a campaign, and you're up against an opponent in donald trump who is willing to do or say anything to win. he's proven that.

and that is asymmetric warfare. so, you know, there are challenges, the vp pick, three debates, those debates will be watched closely, trump has lowered the bar for biden in those debates, by attacking his mental acuity. biden can clear that bar. but there is risk in that, so there are a lot of uncertainties ahead, but right now you certainly would rather be joe biden than donald trump. >> 100 days out, david axelrod, appreciate your expertise and insights. up next, a stalled debate on a big new stimulus package. from l. infallible up to 24hr fresh wear. by l'oreal paris. excellent coverage with no weigh down. a breathable formula for fresh skin hour after hour. defies transfer, no excess. infallible up to 24hr fresh wear. by l'oreal paris. with spray mopping to lock away debris and absorb wet messes, all in one disposable pad.

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layoffs are spiging and the timing is very important. the $600 weekly unemployment bonus congress added to aerlly relief package expires at the end of this week. we were supposed to get details of a new plan last week but republican infighting blew up that timetable. now mitch mcconnell says he hopes to roll out the plan this week with a plan of a final deal with the democrats and trump over the next several weeks. democrats want to extend the $600 payments through january. republicans say they we need to scale them back, some say significantly, but the republicans can't agree among themselves on big questions of how and by how much. >> disarray and their disarray is causing great, great damage to america's working families. this is an alarm this needs to be sounded.

as loudly as possible. >> stimulus fight is a washington debate but one with realtime impact on an already struggling american economy. joining us now is marc zandi. marc, you write this week you believe it's possible the united states economy to tip back into recession. what needs to be done and how quickly? >> yeah, john. i do. i fear that we could go backwards here. ever since we opened businesses too quickly and now have seen the infections rise and governors have to pull back, the economy's gone sideways so i think unless congress and the administration get it together pretty quickly here, provide a sizable package of support somewhere trial and a half, $2 trillion, i think the economy will go back into recession so they need to work very quickly the forestall that possibility. >> if you look at the headlines in recent days, federal eviction

moratorium ends this week. retail carnage deepens as pandemic impact deepens. economic stories if you take them in medical terminology, it's like everywhere you look the patient is in the emergency room. how do you stabilize? >> yeah. y you're right. it is most significant for most people in the job market. we saw on thursday another over 2 million people filed for unemployment insurance claims and stuck there for five, six weeks. 2 million is a lot of layoffs, just for context, before we get into this pandemic in a good economy we were getting a couple hundred thousands per week and how stressed the labor market tan broader economy is so i think we need a big support package and well designed and i do think key to that is things like support to the unemployed workers as you know they won't

get paid that extra bonus payment they were getting, that expired unless congress and the administration do something and we need to give a lot of support to state and local governments hemorrhaging red ink and splashing programs and payrolls. these are hospital workers, people we need at any time but certainly most in a pandemic like the one we're in today. >> so what is your best-case scenario for when the economy will not need this help, where you will not need the intervention, the treatment, if you will? >> it won't be until after the pandemic is over so that means a vaccine, therapy that's effective, that's widely distributed and adopted. that's going to be key, getting people to adopt the vaccine so between now and then, whenever that this then is, i think the economy's going to struggle and going to be up to lawmakers to help out. here's the other thing, john. this is the last window congress and the administration will have

to get it together until next year because we have a presidential election and nothing happens after the august recess and they have to do it now and soon or we have to wait until early next year and then we'll be in recession. >> as always, appreciate your insights. thank you, sir. >> sure thing. that's it for this sunday. hope you catch us weekdays, as well. up next, a very busy "state of the union" with jake tapper. his guest includes admiral giroir and larry kudlow and representative karen bass. thank you for sharing your sunday. see you soon. my brothers and sisters my friends for going back to school the bbq the lake the beach my place for my neighbors my community my people my country my home for him for her for them for you.

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biggest fears. four days of more than 1,000 deaths every day. are our leaders learning from their mistakes? i'll speak to a member of the white house coronavirus task force, admiral brett giroir and president trump's top economic adviser larry kudlow, next. and falling behind. polls show voters unhappy with the president's handling of the virus r. the swing states slipping away? >> they'll judge us on the economy i created. the woman joe biden might pick as a vice president representative bass and larry hogan both join me ahead. plus, federal forces, president trump deploys federal officers to american cities. >> we are not going to have a bunch of secret federal agents