contact us confidentially today. it's time. how can joe biden be so far head of donald trump is swing voters favor the president? i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia. consider the following, there is a mountain of polling data that suggests if the election were held today, joe biden would be elected the nation's 46th president and probably by a landslide. take your pick, the latest

ipsos/rou ipsos/reuters poll has biden up by 9 percentage point. biden by 10, cbs. fox news, biden by 8. and with regard to the all important battleground states here are some the latest results. franklin and marshall college poll of pennsylvania shows biden up by 9. cnn poll wisconsin voters, biden by 11. and cnn/ssrs poll tells the same story, biden leads trump by 4 in arizona, 12 in florida, six points in michigan. you would say that swing voters decidedly favor joe biden but that may not be true at least from a firm that conducted data for more than a year with swing voters in seven swing dates. that nonpartisan firm is called

engagedus. and in pennsylvania, ohio, minnesota, and florida. these swing voters are people who voted for romney in 2012 and then clinton in 2016. or they voted for obama in 2012 and then trump in 2016. focus groups don't yield quantitative data. but they do generate significant qualitative information. they're often seen as early detection systems of shifting public opinions that polls can be slower to capture. and in all but one of these focus groups, one in erie, pennsylvania, the swing voters said they are favoring donald trump. for example, last week in mccomb coun county, michigan, swing voters told engageus that they had questions about biden. >> i don't think biden is going to be running the country. whoever the vice president is going to be running the country. the vice president or whoever the public people are telling

him to say. >> he doesn't have his own ideas. >> i think biden wouldn't really be the person controlling the country. whereas, trump is, i believe, actually the person actually running the country. >> biden has been in there forever. you know, what, 50 years in politics and doing all of this stuff. and he's never done anything. >> so, how can both of these things be true? that biden is winning the race handily, but swing voters favor donald trump? joining me now is rich towel, the president of engageus who has conducted all groups and the-h host of the atlanta whisperer. she predicted taking the house and had ultimately 40 making her prediction the most accredit of that cycle. okay. rich, where have you been and

what have you learned? >> well, i've been to those seven states that you mentioned over the last 17 months. the bottom line, the old quote from margaret thatcher, first you win the argument, then you win the vote. right now, donald trump is winning the argument with two-thirds of the people that i'm talking to. i think from a perspective of the people who would determine or could determine the outcome of this election, the energy is still with president trump. >> rich, if you had found that in half the focus groups, i don't think you'd be booked on the program today. it's the fact you that tell me that 16 of the 17 reached the similar consensus. what was different about erie, pennsylvania? >> what was different, erie was done in june, right after the social unrest. and people were sorting out emotions. and some were frustrated with president trump than typically would be.

this past week in mccomb county it reverted to form and seven out of ten people would take trump. >> is there selection bias in the way you're going about this? >> i don't think there's selection bias. in fact, the professor has conducted research which i came across which validated what i found qualitatively. two-thirds the trump voters when given the choice between trump and biden would take president trump. one-third would take biden. this has been consistent across the country, again, with that one exception in june in erie. >> doctor, can both things be true that rich's data is accurate, and yet, that joe biden is handily ahead? >> yeah, this is fascinating data to hear. again, i did a little preview before the show. so, this is the first i'm

hearing about the dates and hearing that there's a focus group in june that swung the other way. and he's seeing a reversion in the new data. i'm just dieing to hear what the new focus group data will show. and i've been arguing, look, i just put out an argue in "market watch" and i'm talking about how my forecasting model is based on negative partisanship and how it's guaranteed basically a four-point advantage for the democrats and now that nominee is biden coming into this presidential election based on a woken demographic giants but also democrats that lien le s s okay? so these focus groups, to me, the one-third/two third is there's two-thirds leaning

independent. so it's right-wing independents who have hung with trump that have happened in the last four years, the last time they broke with him is when the "access hollywood" video was released before the election. and they stuck with him through it all until this pandemic mismanagement. and the data is still showing that they are swinging away, at least in the generic, or head-to-head ballot stuff. so it will be interesting to see, if you're right in the qualitative data is a leading indicator in what we will expect to see is the expected renarrowing of that head to head ballot as the right-leaning indyes begin to return. now, one thing that i say, a stimulus happens and it disappears. the pandemic is not something that's disappearing. it's pretty stable in its severity and probably going to become worse in the fall. so that's one thing that is

different. >> rachel, is it possible that the way to read your conclusions and rich's conclusions together, and not being at odds, i know from our prior conversations and my reading of your work, that you are very big on turnout. not swing voters. is it that rich's analysis doesn't take into full consideration the passion that exists among anti-trump voters? pew research, for example, said two thirds of those who are for joe biden are for joe biden because they want to get rid of donald trump? >> right, which is exactly my model. no i don't think -- i just think rich is in a different research area, right? he's talking about -- he's trying to delve qualitatively into what swing voters -- i mean, rich is discounting, i mean not in a pejorative way, but he's not focused on the new model that i'm advocating for.

that is the ultimate partisan including independent leaners, partisan composition of the electorate and pure indies are going to break heavily against it. i don't think that he's advocating that trump is going to win the election. i don't think there's any signs in the election data right now positive for trump. but i do think, and other analysts are arguing this, these large leads that we're seeing for biden now may not hold. and that's why i've said on my election analysis that it would be probably foley to completely go all in on the idea that you would win over the trump voters and ignore the other part of your electoral strategy. because that's what the clinton campaign did, too. they were thinking, oh, these trump-leaning independents will break. and then they ended up leaving

them at the altar. >> sure. >> so, it really is a, i think, a risky strategy. >> rich, one final note, i just want to make this clear. you did 15 of these focus groups with swing voters in swing states. they pretty much told you the same thing. number 16, you get to erie. and there's a reversal. and it makes you think, hey, maybe the pandemic has caught up to donald trump. let's underscore this. number 17 which you just did was mccomb county, michigan, home of the famous democrats for reagan. and there had been a reversal back to what you'd be getting previously, is that accurate? >> that's accurate. i just want to stress i'm not saying that trump is going to win the election. i'm not saying that biden is going to win the election. what i'm saying we have tremendous amounts of humility after what happened in 2016. i know there are so many outside event where is people will be comfortable voting during a pandemic in in person.

outside events that we can't foresee will happen between now and november 3rd. those are things in my mind about projections about what's going to happen. we just have to be really, really humble. >> a quick final question for dr. bitecofer if i might. you've seen the commercial, we've all seen the commercial of the woman dialing 911. she's looking for the response because somebody is going to break into her house. in fact, kathryn, show a couple seconds of that so everyone knows what i'm talking about. this has been the big topic of the trump campaign, oddly, they've gone dark in the last couple of days. my question, rachel in a commercial like this, who are they trying to reach, swing voters like rich is talking about, or the base? >> are you going to show the commercial? >> oh, you must not have seen it. >> that's okay. so, they're trying to reach both. bit i think the trump strategy, which, by the way, they are pulling off the air and are

going to retool because it's obviously not working is it's about trying to -- it's really out of date. and it's trying to convince people that, you know, racial minorities are coming to disrupt their peaceful suburban lifestyle and hedge off of that suburban loss. it's a total misread of like what the mentality of what the suburban college-educated voters are about. and here's what i will tell you, i will tell you this, the trump campaign is not a campaign that's been tooled for addition which is how traditional campaigns are too manied. it's one that has been tooled for subtraction from the biden campaign. it was a dubious strategy from the get-go. and i think they're starting to realize how ineffective it is. >> to be continue. this is a fascinating dichotomy if there is one. and i thank dr. racial bitecofer

and rich tau. thanks. >> thanks for having me. >> this comes from twitter, i believe. what do we have? smerconish, starting the show with an attempt to shore up trump. you are so transparent. ducky, are you blanking me? there's a disconnected information here that i want to illuminate. i want to shine a spotlight on. i rattled off -- now i'm going to have to respond to you in a substantive way. i rattled off all of the data that shows you that biden is winning nationally. gave you swing state data. but i've been interviewing rich tau from all of his focus groups and swing voters going one way and all of the other data says something else. your interpretation is i'm in

the tank for trump because i bring you data? no. up ahead, turns out this infamous video of encounter with a navy pilot with an object he couldn't identify is being analyzed by the pentagon. so does the government believe we're not alone? and if and when operation "warp speed" produces an approved coronavirus vaccine who should be first in line? should income be a factor? plus, should joe biden participate in the three presidential debates this wall. joe lockhart is here to say, no. he's here to explain. is joe biden obligated, does he have an obligated to debate donald trump? go vote. apps are used everywhere...

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calling people who believe in ufos crack pots after the recent revelation that there's actually a pentagon task force looking into them. one astrophysicist who has worked for the pentagon's ufo program since 2007 told "the new york times" that he gave a classified briefing to a defense department agency about retrievals from, quote, off-world vehicles not made on this earth. are we on the brink of full disclosure about visitors from outer space? joining me now is christopher mellon, he served as dispute assistant of defense for intelligence during the bill clinton and obama administrations. he also co-hosts unidentified ufo investigation on the history channel. chris, i sense there's a sea change recently in the way the

reports are carried and covered. what accounts for it? what has gone on recently? >> yeah, thank you very much. you're absolutely right. and a good example of the sea change is the fact that none other than that scientific american itself has published an article saying the subject ought to be taken seriously and investigated by the scientific community. i think the exchange is largely, primarily a result of the fact of that the defense department and the navy themselves have stood up and publicly acknowledged that this phenomenon is real. that this is happening. that our navy pilots are encountering these vehicles. and so that imparts a credibility that simply did not exist prior to that time. >> i was quoting eric davis. i know you're familiar with this work when i read that "the new york times" paragraph a moment ago. do you believe that there are objects in our possession, broadly defined, our possession,

that are from something other than this earth? >> what i will say about that is i think that assertion should be taken seriously. i'm aware of -- i know eric very well. i understand his arguments. i was present in his briefings on the hill. and he tried to provide leads for them to follow to enable them to potentially confirm this. it is an issue that should be taken seriously. in fact, curiously, president trump himself on father's day, indicated on air, while being filmed that he did have classified information about new mexico, which most people know is the legendary site of the alleged crash of the ufo. and when asked by his son about

that, about would he classify it, he said i would have to think about it. i don't know other than roswell other than that particular issue. so there is lot of new press, new information coming forward. again, as i said, i think this is a top take the oversight committee should take seriously and investigate. >> it's the only thing missing from this election. who knows what the next 90 days brings. >> this is a global issue. this is not a united states issue. are there other countries that have taken the lead in the exploration of this subject? >> absolutely. in fact, we're behind several other countries. france for many years has had an official process involving their national security forces and police forces. every year, they examine a number of cases and bring in

outside scientists. a lot of that information is public. my colleague lou alazondo has made trips to italy and south america. we present a lot of information on the show, as well as information from current and former u.s. military personnel and their experiences. but you're absolutely right, it's not just united states. and further, our military personnel had similar experiences when they were deployed abroad in the middle east and afghanistan and elsewhere. so by all accounts it's definitely a worldwide phenomenon. >> the final question, can technology alone account for what you and i are discussing? it occurs to me by day i make my living by speaking on sirius xm and my voice is bouncing across the united states on a satellite. i assume right now, this

conversation is doing sloulikew. there's a lot of stuff in the atmosphere that didn't used to be there, can that be an explanation or is it too simplistic? >> i think it's too simplistic, because we had information from multiple systems, infrared systems, multiple personnel in the ground and in the air, tracking these objects performing maneuvers that clearly indicate they were under intelligence control. they're responding to our aircraft. they're outmaneuvering them and doing things far beyond any capability we possess. so that's certainly a hypothesis to consider. we have to keep an open mind going forward. >> chris mellon, thank you so much. >> absolutely, thank you. >> what are you saying social media, i think this comes from the world of facebook.

what do we got? ufos are not alien. no such thing. hey, there's something out there that hasn't been identified. and ufo is no longer the acronym favored by those who study it. for the benefit of those watching it and saying, my god, how are you on the so show that's newsworthy and topical and gives us the four or five hottest things, i would suggest you're not read in. up ahead, presidential debates are woven into the fabric of american politics, but candidates are not required to participate. i'll talk to a former white house press secretary who says joe biden should sit this one outside. would that be lose-lose snacenao for the former joe biden? is joe biden obligated to debate donald trump?

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we're just 59 days away from the first presidential debate between president donald trump and former vice president joe biden. for weeks some political experts have been raising the questions would biden be better off skipping the debate. former clinton press secretary joe lockhart wrote an op-ed for cnn.com entitled "joe biden could still lose this election." i was struck by this provocative paragraph that says, whatever you do, don't debate trump. trump has now made 20,000 misleading or false statements according to "the washington post" it's a fool ace errand to enter the ring with someone who can't follow the rules or the truth. biden will undoubtedly take heat from republicans and the media for skipping the debates. but it's worth the risk as trying to debate someone incapable of telling the truth is an impossible contest to win.

joining me now to discuss is political analyst joe lockhart. if the president is watching this right now, i can see him rubbing his hands together, and say oh, my, that would be perfect because i could, of course, say he's afraid to get on the stage and his cognitive abilities. >> yeah, he will say that. and as i say, it's worth the risk. this is a president as i said in the article is incapable of telling the truth. he spins these conspiracy theories out there. up till now, most of those theories are broadcast by fox news. and, you know, on his twitter feed. you know, most americans don't see that. the debates are very different. this is the one thing, now that we're not really going to have conventions where the public will tune in, you know, 50 million, 60 million people. and this will see all of this nonsense from him.

he will take the truth and destroy it. and biden will be in the position of correcting him over and over and over again. i don't think he should give him that platform. >> if you were contacted by the former vice president's campaign staff, hey, joe, we ahead your piece, and we're really intrigued, how do we execute this? what would you say? >> well, i'd say, you know, look at what i wrote. it's not really a debate. if only one side is willing to tell the truth. we saw in the debates in 2016, hillary clinton showed a mastery of the issues. i think she at every point was more honest and bested trump. but trump came out of the debates doing better. he repeated the same old lies. we're going to build a wall and mexico is going to pay for it. we're going to keep the mexican

rapists out of the country. nothing of those have come to pass. and giving them to get to spout 21,000 or 22,000 lies, i don't think it's worth it for the democrats or for biden. >> here's another strategy for joe biden. i'm spit-balling here for both campaigns. it is to say, let donald trump continue to say all of those things he continues to say about joe having lost a step. the joe i saw last week in wilmington, questions aren't too hard, he was fine. and if trump goes out and constantly banging the drum about biden. then joe goes and performs in that first debate, the bar has been set so low that he exceeds it and then people say well there was nothing to trump's charges. what about that? >> you know what, my guess is they probably will debate.

and that say factor, i think, you know, trump is setting the bar so low for biden that it will be impossible for him to not reach it. but more than anything, the debate will be a spectacle. a circus. >> right. right. >> trump is unable to do anything but that. and the circus atmosphere, we know more than anything, helps trump. he's better at being the circus clown than any other politician we've ever seen. and i just don't think that biden gets anything from entering that the circus ring. >> one last thing, joe, if i may, i'm going to put on a screen a map on where in the country people can begin voting before the first debate. it's really stunning. look at that, if you're able to see on the screen. it's two-thirds of the nation, ballots will be bailed out before the first presidential debate takes place on september

29. i wonder by the time you get to debates two and three if this thing isn't already over. >> yeah, you know, it's something that people don't speak about a lot but it's a very important development, particularly this year, where i think you're going to see a lot more mail-in ballots, despite whatever trump says about voter fraud which is another issue on the debate. trump in the debate, will try to degrade the legitimacy of the election. and that's the worst thing that could happen for our democracy. we're looking at, if you look at the last 30 or 40 years, the debates really haven't moved the election one way or the other. and in this case, i think by the second debate, you may have had more than half the country already voted. so they're not as important this year, i think, as they have been in other years. and trump is an unique candidate. we need to treat him as an unique candidate who shattered all the norms. not like, you know, the standard

candidate that you'd want to get up on the stage with. >> final question, ten-second answer if you can, you're totally wired, especially on the democratic side of the aisle. what kind of reaction did you get to this part of your cnn op-ed? >> you know, listen, i think a lot of people are worried about what you started with, that biden will get beaten across the head on this. i think they have to take the longer view. that's why i think he shouldn't get on stage. >> thank you, joe. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> joe lock heahart has inspire today's survey question @smerconish.com. make sure you're voting. this kims from twitter. what do we have? hell yeah, the debates are not optional. the citizenry demanded such head-to-head confrontations in order to test their mettle.

for a president, fact-check me on this, wasn't it jimmy carter who said i'm not going to get on the debate stage if john anderson is given a platform. i think i am in 1980. is joe biden obligated, is he obligated to debate donald trump? go to smerconish.com and cast your ballot. still to come, america is desperate for a coronavirus vaccine, but when one get as proved, who will be first in line and who gets to decide? [indistinct radio chatter]

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when the first coronavirus vaccine is approved and manufactured, who should get access to it first? that's the preferring question for health officials as some trials enter their final stages. it's generally agreed that the highest priority should go to health care and essential workers and high-risk populations including old adults and people with underlying medical conditions. but what about the squestion of

say, race? black americans have the highest rate, 2.3 times as high as whites or asian-americans. then the question of financial circumstances. look at the antiviral drug remdesivir which has proved effective in reducing the risk of death for severely ill patients, but it's also in short supply. so pennsylvania has implemented a, quote, weighted lottery, giving preference to individuals with financial need and essential workers. is that how the vaccine should be distributed? joining me now is art caplan professor of ethics at medical school of medicine. look at you, all coming true? >> we used to debate this as if

it would never happen and it was theoretically interesting, and here we are. >> what thoughts do you have for who is first in line? >> let me start with the vaccine, it's about 50% what we're shooting for we're not going to vaccinate ourselves out of this pandemic right away. we still have to live with the virus. so partially affected. let's be clear about that. and there are folks who say i don't want to take it. we'll come back to that, michael, in a minute. but, the right way to go you got to address needs and lives. you just started a list. i think that list makes sense. we want to make sure we not only protect health care workers but people who are likely to die, who are severely impacted. that means folks who are prisoners, as well as people who are health care workers. it means extra attention to poorer minorities, native-americans on

reservations, they show huge risk of dying from this covid virus. >> i can't imagine a debate in the country if policymakers say we need to protect the elderly because they're at irisk, let's make sure they have access to the vaccine. one of the rinksks, say, obesit. i can't imagine that obese people are going to get it and somebody at the gym saying i'm there every day, why are they prioritized. >> they are. certainly, people are going to say, well, if you didn't wear a mask, maybe you should be at the end of the vaccine line. i'm going to say from the health care point of view, the public health care of view, we don't sort out the saints and sinners figuring out who to care for in the hospital. we try to save lives. that's the reasonable thing to say with the vaccine policy. i'll tell you another thing,

michael, are we doing america first and what about the rest of the world? what if we get the vaccine and we have it, a lot of international groups, w.h.o., saying you got to share it from the start. i don't think that's going to happen. i think we're going to take care of people in need in america first. i don't think that's just self-phiself selfi selfish. that's what a community does. you sort of look to your own first. it's like, when you're on an airplane, they say put your mask on first and help your child. they don't say help a random stranger. >> you build it and they will come. i put the numbers on the screen. i think the risk is 20% who say i'll never get one. 30% say i'll get it as soon as a can. 50% say i'll consider it. i've made a point before, dr. caplan, that 20% is not an anti-vaxer crew.

i hear it on the radio show, people saying it's happening so fast, i'm uncomfortable. >> yeah, it's a worry, michael when the president and white house keeps saying warp speed and race we're doing what we can fast. what they're doing is undermining trust. you got to say warp speed to a safety vaccine. you don't want a vaccine, you want a safe vaccine. so, what i believe will happen, there will be large numbers of americans who say i don't want to do this. we'll have another debate, that's mandates. and i'll answer that question and say, i don't know that the government is going to put up government-issued mandates to take a vaccine. but private enterprise, your boss, your sports team, your bar, your tattoo parlor, they're all going to want to see proof of vaccination before you calom in. i think we'll see mandates but

in the private sector. >> my fear is like the masks. it becomes a red state/blue state issue. i sure hope i'm wrong. >> i hope you're wrong. what i hope people see the vaccine and it's effective. then we'll get the lineup and have that debate who will goes next. >> look at that background. how are your ratings? >> you know, i'm strong, michael. and this -- i have to give some credit to my lovely wife. the setup here is 9 out of 10 on -- they say, i don't know what that guy is talking about, but he's got good book shechllv. >> thank you, dr. caplan. >> thank you, mike. >> still to come, your worst and best tweets. the finals results of the survey question. you have a chance to quote.

is joe biden obligated to debate donald trump? today, we're facing a serious threat. we have to meet it as one country. numbers don't lie. infection rates are now going up in more states than they are going down. we've got to fight this together. wear a mask, keep your distance, limit the size of crowds. it may be inconvenient and may be uncomfortable, but it's the right thing to do as an american. we need a president who will level with the american people,

a president who will tell us the unvarnished truth, a president who will take responsibility instead of always blaming others, a president who will listen to the experts, follow the science, allow them to speak, a president who will lead and be an example for the nation. we have to do all we can to keep our fellow americans safe and healthy. i'm joe biden and i approve this message. latonight, silence it with newd byzzzquil night pain. because pain should never get in the way of a restful night's sleep. new zzzquil night pain. silence pain, sleep soundly.

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all right. time to see how you responded to the survey question smerconish.com. is joe biden obligated to debate donald trump? survey says -- 67% say no. wow. look at the voting on that. more than 18,000 people since i've been on air have cast ballots and two thirds plus say, you know, joe, you're not obligated to do it. i said this to joe lockhart, wouldn't that play right into

president trump's hands? i mean, i can just envision him saying, oh, that would be ideal because then it will give heft to my argument that he can't with stand, you know, the grilling that he would get from me or from chris wallace in a sunday interview. that sort of thing. one other observation, if i may. i don't think that vice president biden makes his pick for a veep in the next few day. i say that because you may think this par snickty, when he had that presser in wilmington last week, he said the first week of august. i thought, that's an odd word choice. today is august 1. if he meant the next few calendar days he would have said next week. not the first week in august. so i may be wrong. it's got to be within the next two weeks, but i don't think it will be this week. some of the reaction coming in from social media. what do we have, katherine? are there really people who are waiting for the debates to decide who they will vote for?

stacy, there are. and you know, rich has interviewed many of them over the course of 17 different focus groups. you're referring, of course, to the lead segment of the program today where i expressed curiosity about this disconnect where you've got data that says swing voters like and are sticking with trump, but a mountain of data that says right now joe biden is winning this thing handily. can both be true? i think they both probably can. there's a lot of passion involved in this race and passion will call the shot. also, what do we have, social media -- appreciate getting your tweets and facebook comments. anyone, i mean, anyone that swings on an opinion of trump is a trump supporter. it's impossible to be wishy-washy on such a polarizing figure. paul, you saw the results of the most recent mccomb county focus group that engages had -- i know that this seems foreign to many

of us political junkies, read in and paying attention to the news each and everyday. the people that rich interviews are low information voters. that doesn't mean low intelligence. it just means they're not as caught up and engaged in all of this as are the rest of us. they exist among us and, yes, some went from romney to hillary. or they went from obama to trump. and their vote matters as much as the rest of us. all right. have a great weekend. be safe. wear a mask. see you next week. got it?

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♪ well, good morning to you. i hope saturday has been good to you so far. it's august 1st, i'm christi paul. >> i'm victor blackwell. you're in cnn "newsroom." happening right now, there's a hurricane headed for florida. could make landfall in the next few hours. several covid-19 testing sites have been forced to close as that storm is getting toward the state there. happening this hour, white house officials and democratic leaders, they're meeting on capitol hill, trying to break this log jam over new economic stimulus bill after millions of americans lost extra unemployment benefits that expired at midnight. this morning, new warnings from a critical witness involved in president trump's impeachment hearing. why he says bullying, intimidation and retaliation by the president and his allies forced him into