tv Smerconish CNN August 8, 2020 6:00am-7:00am PDT
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are we ready to rumble? i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia and i have my doubts. here's the best summation of election day in america that i've ever read, quote, imagine hearing the following pitch on "shark tank." a nationwide mega chain with no corporate headquarters, no ceo. it will operate eight times as many u.s. locations as mcdonald's. serving twice as many customers, despite having half as many employees. each location will experience nearly double the daily foot traffic of your average starbucks. not only that, but every one of these approximately 116,000 stores will be a pop-up.
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remanning open for a single day, closing for good at night. and, oh, by the way, the more than 900,000 workers will be woefully underpaid. that is election day in america. david litt who once wrote speeches for president barack obama wrote that assessment in his latest book "democracy in one book or less." sounds scary, right? and litt published his analysis before coronavirus. the presence of the pandemic has only compounded our problems. pew research points out in the 2018 midterm election nearly 60% of american poll workers were 61 or older. if they don't show up, it's a problem. any shortage of election workers could extend lines and delay the counting of mail-in ballots. my first guest who you'll meet in a moment had to study the impact of election lines since 20, an election in which he concluded that 750,000 americans
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left the polls without voting due to delays. in 2016, he concluded that there were 1.6 million lost votes in the mail ballot process. and that number will likely grow in 2020 which will only add to legal disputes, should the results be close. plus, election dayelays, they he long-lasting impact. david litt pointed this out that the university of pennsylvania's stephen pettigrew has found that every hour you that wait to vote in an election your odds of voting in the next election drop by 1%. in other words, the mess from the 2008 elections reduced florida turnout by 200,000 votes in the 2012 elections which cost florida an additional 200,000 votes in 2016. we're 87 days away from final
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day of voting. i'm schooling myself to not refer to the first day in november as election day. that's a stated opposite. 34 states plus the district of columbia now permit no excuse absentee balloting. and some of them, like my own state of pennsylvania are rookies. counting mail ballots is more cumbersome when people vote open machine. the envelopes need to be opened. they need to be verified. they need to be tabulated. we may not know who won the night of november 3rd, not because of any fraud, it will take longer to count. consider in new york state, the primary was held on january 23rd, it wasn't until this past tuesday, that victors were declared in two of new york's congressional races. the exception of 400,000 mail-in
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ballots accused of the delays. some are accusing richard dejoy who donated to president trump in 2020 of purposely slowing down the delivery service. he denies that, denies slowing down the mail. but announced an organizational realignment yesterday. 23 postal executives were reassigned or displaced. here's the point. it all sounds like a potential, perfect storm. a pandemic, states and voters new to the mail-in process. poll workers, perhaps, staying at home. and mail delays, now add in a potential change from our history of learning who won, as we sit in front of televisions watching john king's magic wall on election night. i want to know what you think. go to my website @smerconish.com and answer this week's survey question which poses a greater
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threat to the 2020 election, fraud or administrative overload, postal delays and voter error? here to discuss is charles stewart iii. he's the director of m.i.t.'s election day and science lab and author of "reconsidering lost votes by mail." dr. stewart, what worries you the most? >> well, you have given us a pretty good litany there in your introduction of what -- among the things that you mentioned, the things that worries me the most has to do with in-person voting and the structures of getting poll workers to show up on election day. show up during the early voting period. and to handle the -- you know, what is likely to be a large volume of voters going to those facilities. i mean, not only are we going to have voters who would want to vote on election day or want to
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vote in person early, but there will also be voters who have been unable to navigate the mail ballot stream, maybe for many of the reasons that you mentioned. and they're going to show up as well. so, in-person voting has now become the fail-safe in many states for their mail balloting separation. >> it's amazing. i can put on the screen a map of where there is mail-in voting now. it's depicted in yellow. now, two third, of the country are early voting states. as you pointed out it almost makes secondary, showing up to vote old school in person. and if you're aware of it by mail, you will default to showing up in person. that apparatus needs to be well equipped and able to deal with you. >> oh, absolutely. however, one of the things about -- i mean, showing that there's so much early voting now, either in person or by mail is a bit of a silver lining
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meaning that under these difficult circumstances, voters in most states, not all, but most states, have multiple avenues to get their ballots in on time. and so -- and in those states, particularly where one can vote by mail. it's possible to have a voting plan for every voter that starts with the request of absentee ballot early. at least you'll get that out of the way. you won't have to wait about postal delays in getting your ballot. >> let's be proactive. what can be done to ensure this is carried out in a proper manner? >> well, there's a number of things. rather than making a long list, i would note just, you know, focus on what voters can do. or we as citizens can do. and what election officials can do. what we as citizens or what we as voters can do, first of all, as i just suggested. have a plan. think right now about how you want to vote until novembein no.
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if you think voting by mail is for you request a ballot or absentee ballot as soon as you can. having done that, read the instructions carefully, call them if you have questions, don't make any assumptions. for election officials i would say many of the big logistical issues have been taken care of or are in the process of being taken care of. so, from this point forward, it's a matter of doing the recruitment, to actually the circle-back to us as citizens. for those of us who feel uncomfortable doing it, we can do it safely. volunteer to become a poll worker. which are websites that one can go to, powerthepolls.org is one of them where you can sign up and get that process going. call your local election office and volunteer. election officials should be recruiting volunteers right now. they should be putting out social and traditional media,
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educational bits, about how to request your ballot. how to market properly and how to return it properly. so, right now, we're beginning -- should get into the spring. and we've got to just do the blocking and tackle. >> i'll make sure that powerthepolls.org, i hope i said it properly, is in my twitter feed. one last thing, i talked about this confluence of factors domestically. i'm looking at newspaper headlines all across the country today talking about -- i'll put one of these on the screen, russia hopes to assist trump. they want trump to win. and you've god biden and iran. we've not seen anything about trickery or chicaneanery or the source. you get the last word. >> well, voters need to focus on verified information. listen to what the election
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officials are saying. watch what they're doing carefully and have a plan. >> dr. stewart, thanks so much for your time. >> my pleasure, thank you. >> i want you to stick around for more of this conversation and how the pandemic will affect the election. the trump campaign national press secretary hogan gibly will join me in a bit to discuss. make sure you're going to smerconish.com to answer the survey question, which poses a greater threat to the 2020 election? fraud or administrative overload, postal delays and voter error? up ahead, the coronavirus has hit the country hard killing over 160,000. how is it that some of us get very sick while others seem fine? could some of us be naturally immune? preventive medicine specialist dr. david katz is here to explain. and the coronavirus pandemic is changing time and experience for many students.
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more time at home with mom and dad wasn't necessarily the image. but two recent princeton grads come to the rescue. and look at how they're creating a very different campus experience. >> guys, i think it's going to work. >> did you just say you got accepted? >> yeah, we all did. >> thank you so much. >> just a show of hands, how many people applied to other colleges? helping to prevent gum disease and bad breath. never settle for 25%. always go for 100. bring out the bold™ yes. neutrogena® ultra sheer. superior protection helps prevent early skin
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intriguing possibility. they say large parts of the population have immune cells that fail to recognize covid-19, thanks to past exposures to known coronaviruses that caused the common cold in years. in other words, some people may have an unknown degree of protection. that sounds like good news so what are the implications on vaccines and herd immunity? joining me now is dr. david katz, the former director of yale research center and also president of true health initiative. native resistance. how would i know if i have it, dr. katz? >> i don't think we canl you, michael. i mean, this is excellent news at the population level. we've had indications of this for a long time, that many people may not be prone to get this particular virus at all. because they have partial native resistance likely due to prior coronavirus exposures. we don't yet have
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population-level testing. listen, we've had a hard time keeping up with the testing we already knew we had to do, right. we certainly haven't reached the point where we're testing to see do you have this partial resistance reactive t-cells. so, i don't know how you know, i don't know know how i know. but it looks like a significant percentage of us may be causally resistant to sars-cov sp vchlsa. it's interesting, michael, i think this is really important there was a preprint published in another prestigious report cell in april. in pandemic years in mid-april or may, that's a long time ago. it said the same thing, 40% to 60% of people without exposure to this particular virus had essentially a kind of white
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blood cell. or immune system defense force, that was predisposed to react to this virus as if it had seen it before. and the inference these researchers drew, and this was a group from the united states, is that the common cold coronaviruses, may trig arger a partial protection. this is a new paper by german researchers finding the same thing. exactly what percent of the population, 45%, 50%, 60%, a bit less clear. but all of those are big numbers and they potentially move us a lot closer to herd immunity because many people apparently had some degree of immunity to this before the pandemic even began. >> what impact, then, if any, does it have on the subject of vaccination? >> well, the good news about vaccine development is these studies show they're various
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aspects of this virus that our immune system can react to. in fact, you can trigger a reaction of sars-cov2 using systems. the more ways to trigger the immune response that's protected against a particular threat, the more opportunity you have to create an effective vaccine. so, this isn't directly related to vaccine development efforts ongoing now. but what it does suggest, over time, if we hit any walls, if we have difficulty developing vaccines there are probably lots of different target antigens. these are basically proteins part of a virus. and it looks like there are various things that trigger an immune system. that's what you want to do, trigger an immune system response. using the x vaccine, to trigger the response to protect against y. y being the actual virus. i think it's good news on the
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vaccine front, too. one other thing, michael, i think this is really important. we have these two essentially studies in donated blood, looking at responses of cells outside of people's bodies. we had this in nature and in "cell," two prestigious groups. two journals, many of us part with are resistant. but what's happening in the real world is there evidence that that's true, and my impression is that has long been evidence that that's true. how else do we explain the fact that on the "diamond princess" only a small percentage got infe infected. on the "uss roosevelt" only a kn few got imeffected. >> you have been very consist t consistent. dr. katz. you were saying in all likelihood, closer to one. give me the final word on this. this is potentially wonderful
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news that sommet have a native resistance. i just hope it doesn't give people beer muscles to gather 250,000 as bikers in south dakota, or 200 people on mulholland drive jammed into a house party which occurred in los angeles earlier in the week. obviously, the presumption needs to be, hey, i'm not one of those. >> exactly. >> with native resistance, nor am i surrounded with people with native resistance. but i love the optimistic news thank you for bringing it. >> i'm with you, brother. we have to stay cautious. the first question who among us has this partial native resistance? we don't know. so stay vigilant, stay cautious, right. >> dr. david katz. up ahead, the president continues to cry foul on the security of the 2020 election. how will the chaos factor into the rhetoric? press secretary hogan gidley
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will be here to discuss. i want to remind you to go to the website @smerconish.com and answer the question which poses a greater threat to the 2020 election? fraud or administrative overload, postal delays and voter error? wouldn't we all love a crystal ball to see who is going to win the presidential election in november. i can bring you the next best thing, a history record has the list and he's here. to show his prognostication for 2020. and plus, a pandemic would have ended the college life but would you be willing to pay for a college experience, say, in a hawaii hotel? an ivy league grad said he's got you covered. relief. tylenol®.
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he then accused the democrats of doing their own election cheating without an availability to explain. hogan gidley, a press secretary for the campaign, hogan, i delivered a commentary, essentially arguing that we've got this perfect storm brewing from now until election day. comprised of the following, voting composed of a pandemic, postal delay and voter error because of newness with the absentee ballot process. i think begs the question, doesn't this president have an obligation to tell people, that the delay in the count, i'm thinking about the night of november 3rd is not indicative of fraud? >> well, a couple things. first of all, i appreciate you having me on. thanks so much for the time. also i did watch your opening, and you make a lot of great points. listen, here at the campaign, we are concerned about voter fraud in this election, in part,
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because, in so many states, democrats are now suing to allow for votes to come in after election day. nevada is a great example of that. when you talk about the potential for fraud nevada is going to be the poster child for it in this way. when they are going to send out 2 million ballots in the mail to their voters, they're also putting out envelopes that are pre-paid with postage already on them. now, the post office doesn't date those will a postmark, because they're already pre-paid. that means anyone can wake up on wednesday morning, see that they don't like the results and then go drop their ballots in the mail. it won't receive a postal date stamp on it. and so it has three days, by nevada law, to actually get to the location of the courthouse. and then to be counted. that is the potential for massive fraud. not to mention the fact, if you mail it in, before the date of the election, and it is
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postmarked with a date, they still give you several days after that, seven days in fact, for it to count toward the candidate you want, too. so, the potential for the election to change days later in nevada is very real. and that's one of the things we're most concerned about, it's the universal mail-in voting we're talking about the absentee voting and early voting in florida, there are mechanisms to make sure the person requesting the ballot is actually the person voting. the universal mail-in voting is a serious problem. >> the willi"the washington pos head line and maybe it's a post you that won't buy into it, it sums it up this way, the li likelier problem with mail voting delaying election results in fraud it's confusion. the lead editorial on today's
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"wall street journal," put this up on the screen, they run through all that went wrong in the new york election recently. but it ends this way, hogan. it says, what a fiasco. meantime, the national debate over mass mail voting proceeds like two postcards passing in the night. president trump used the word fraud. the factotums of conventional wisdom hit their computer hotkeys for phrases like no evidence of widespread fraud. let's see if we can agree on the next part, why focus on criminality? old-fashioned government incompetence is clearly sufficient to create a mail vote debacle the country might come to regret in november. what is the administration doing about that? >> but it's not an either/or. it's an and. i mean, for decades, you don't trust the post office with a greeting card to granny.
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now, you're telling them that the sacred vote that you're trying to cast for the president of the united states is going to go to the post office and we're going to trust that, you talk about delays, absolutely delays are a concern. you talk about in congressional districts of new york, six weeks, one still they haven't certified yet it took that long to find out who won the election. >> but, hogan, five states have done this without any incident whatever. my concern here is protecting the sanctity and the perception of the ballot. and my complaint with the president is that when he lays this predicate for fraud, he's setting up a dynamic, where americans on november 3rd, are going to tune in looking at john king's magic wall and wondering hey, why don't we have a victor tonight? that's not indicative of fraud. it's indicative of people voting abse absentee in the midst of a
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pandemic, and the system not being able to count as normally as they did. you get the final word. >> well, first of all, there is rife fraud across this country in voting. and that's been proven time and time again in article after article. but what you're arguing here is, there needs to be widespread fraud before we address fraud. that's absolutely ridiculous. and the states you were talk about who do mail-in voting, correct. they've been doing it a long time. a couple of differences, democrats are trying to change the way we vote three months out from an election. and the five states you just mentioned the date specific means the ballot has to come in by 7:00 p.m. on election day. it doesn't allow for votes to come in afterwards. that not only sets up a situation for fraud, but it sets up a situation for massive delays. >> but -- respectfully, the insinuation is that how the rules are being changed to grease the skids for a campaign
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against donald trump without acknowledging we're amidst covid-19. >> that's true. >> and people need to stand in lines and be accommodated. my suggestion is that the president begin talking about is how we're going to pull this off because we're america, because we're first world, not third world. and it won't be suggestive of fraud if we don't know a victor until the 4th, 5th or 6th. that's what i wanted to say. >> i understand that. listen we tried this in wisconsin and it worked. we expect a massive amount of people to vote in this election before election day, because of absentee or mail-in. but to pretend there is no potential for fraud or there won't be fraud when the rules are set up to allow fraud is just a head in the sand mentality. we have to make sure the election is free. we have to make sure the election is fair. that's what we want to do. so we're exposing those states that are up front and --
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>> to be continued -- >> -- to allow for votes legally after the election. that's unacceptable. >> hogan, thanks. we'll continue this conversation, i hope. i want to remind you to answer the survey question @smerconish caug .com. you just heard two answers, you know which way hogan is going to vote, and frankly, you know the way i'm going to vote. is it fraud, or administrative overload, postal delays or voter error? still to come, if you were hoping for a typical college experience in 2020, you can business it good-bye. but turns out it's a pretty cool alternative. the mastermind behind this whole idea is here to tell us more.
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come from living away from home. well, enter the you experience. an entrepreneurial venture hatched by two recent princeton graduates. the idea is, instead of taking college courses in the family den, students can live amid the similarly situated in a hotel, located in either arkansas or hawaii. the cost is 12k in arkansas, 15k in hawaii. about what students would pay for room and board at many universities. joining us now is one of the founders lane russell. lane, i'm envisioning the south harmon institute of technology. is this a reality show waiting to happen? or is this about serious learning? >> thanks for having me, mike. this is about serious learning, but we're letting the college take care of that. what we see our value being here, giving the student an opportunity, like you said, to work with other students and live out that traditional college experience we do think has a lot of value as part of
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that educational experience. >> so, is there an application process? are you going to weed through, assuming you get more who want to live under your roof for the next couple of months than you have capacity for? how are you going to determine who gets to be in it and who doesn't? >> exactly. so, we have an application live on our website right now. we are going to be sifting through that trying to decide how we can make the class both as diverse and inclusive as possible so we get a microcosm of american society, the best example that we're able to. >> is this going to be nba-style? in other words, when you get there in either arkansas or hawaii, you're now in a bubble. you're now in a lockdown environment with constant testing? >> exactly. so, we're going to test the students even before they get to campus to make sure they're not bringing anything into the local communities that we're involved in. once in campus, they're under strict protocols.
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we have an entire handbook on the website to make sure our students are keeping themselves and staff safe. we'll be limiting them to possible sources of contagion. likewise, we do see this, despite being in a significant health crisis, we're also, i think, in the early stages of a significant mental health crisis. and really we're only going to be seeing the impacts of this, and impacts of having millions of college students taken out of their social support networks and thrusting them into an isolation environment in months to come so we're hoping to prevent that. >> okay. so i'm a college student and i'm now living in this hotel until arkansas or hawaii. and i'm going to lehigh university in my room. and you're going to princeston n the next room. and someone else is usc or the next. is there any common experience taking place? >> yes, we will have community
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spaces for students to make copies or study. and they can get that cafe or library feel. we're hoping to have a guest lecture series, whether through zoom or some social distancing measure. but we already have a couple of professors interested in coming and speaking to our students. >> lane, i wish you good things. i don't know, it's either the tesla, apple, google model of education or fly fly festiva festival. fyre festival found all of the people. and right now, we're putting together everything. we've gotten hundreds of hotels across the country excited to host this. we've gotten explicit support from local communities and government. right now, it's just a matter of seeing how many students are interesting in doing this to build the best class possible.
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>> good luck. thanks for being here. >> thanks. have a good one. still to come, the final day of votes, 87 days away. the polls say one thing pundits from other sides may say others. what about the keys? the master allan lichtman, 13 key questions, two candidates. one winner. what does he say? we'll find out, next. ♪ ♪
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race correctly since he began in 1984 has made this forecast for the 2020 presidential race known. with the final day of voting 87 days away, how can he be certain? professor allan lichtman developed a presidential prediction model of 13 keys. the key factor that helped determine whether the incumbent party in the white house will maintain its hold with 13 simple true/false statements. he correctly predicted president trump's victory in 2016. >> my system which is based on patterns of history, as you know, as well as anyone, does predict that this is a bad democratic year and the republican should win which means donald trump should win. however, for the first time in decades, i have put a caveat on my prediction. and that is historical patterns can be broken. donald trump is a history-shattering candidate. we have never before seen a candidate like this with no record whatsoever of public
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service. >> he also prophesized that the president would be impeached, saying democrats would only have a chance at winning in 2020 if they impeach president donald trump. we showed you the history. so what do the keys predict for 2020? professor allan lichtman joins me to discuss. he's the author of "predicting the next president." you said one asterisk, al gore, he did win the popular vote. and for this segment, you talk about electoral college victory. am i right? >> absolutely. because the dynamics have changed. the baseline is now that the democrats automatically get 5 to 6 million extra votes in just two states, new york and california. those votes count for zero in the electoral college. so, the baseline is now the democrats will win the popular vote in a close election. so, i now only predict
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and by the way, al gore should have won in florida too because of the suppression of many thousands of african-american votes. >> i'm going to put the keys up on the screen right now. and what i want to call attention to is that they are largely objective. there's not a debate about them. it's not what professor allen lichtman thinks. it's what the data says. when you look at number 12, charismatic incumbent, you said that is false with regard to donald trump. i know that half the country, at least 46% would probably disagree. speak to that. >> that's exactly my point. when you buy my book, you will see the criterion for this key is you've got to be broadly inspirational to the american people. like ronald reagan was, who brought in all those reagan democrats. donald trump is a great showman. but as you note, he only appeals to a narrow segment of the
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electorate. his approval rating is actually well below 46% on average. and his strong approval rating is somewhere between 25 and 30%. that is a candidate of flash but not a charismatic candidate historically. the once in a generational ronald reagan, franklin roosevelt or barack obama in 2008. >> professor lichtman, your track record speaks for itself. what i find most stunning about the 13 keys is that missing are the debates. missing who ran a better campaign. are debates and indeed is the campaign generally over blown in its value? >> absolutely. the key message of the keys is that it's governing not campaigning that counts. so, forget the polls, ignore the
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pundi pundits. forget about the debates the speeches, the ads, the campaign tricks. the keys tell you to keep your eye on the big picture of incumbent strength and performance. and that's what the keys gauge. looking at things like long and short-term economy, scandal, social unrest, policy change, foreign policy successes and failures. and as you point out, only two keys have anything to do with the candidates themselves. >> final question. i know that now president trump, candidate donald trump, was very happy with you four years ago. he'll be less happy to hear that professor allan lichtman says he's going to lose. the question is this, is this subject to change? is this in cement? have you chiselled it in granite? or is it in sand? >> the keys are in granite. he has seven keys against him. it takes six to predict the loss of the incumbent white house party.
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however, there are two things outside the realm of the keys or any prediction system, michael, that keep me up at night. one is voter suppression. look, trump depends on old white guys like me. can't manufacture more old white guys. that's the most shrinking part of the electorate, but you can try to make it hard for the rising democratic base of minorities and young people. we heard your earlier speaker, who is sewing fear and confusion, but michael, he never answered your question about what the trump administration is doing, if anything, to make this a full and fair vote. second thing that keeps me up at night is russian intervention. we know they're back. they learned a lot in four years. they may even try to get into the registration rolls this time. we know for certain, just as in 2016, donald trump will welcome and exploit any russian intervention on his behalf.
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so the keys are set. we live in such an uncertain world. there's an old chinese saying, some call it a curse, may you live in interesting times. >> we certainly do. all right, professor. hopefully it will be before four years that we'll chat again. >> you know where to find me, michael. >> thank, professor allan lichtman. still to come your best and worst tweets and facebook comments. we've been so packed we haven't had social media. believe me, it is flowing in. and we'll give you the final result of the survey question at my website. go cast a ballot right now. which poses a greater threat to the 2020 election? is it fraud or administrative overload, postal delays and voter error? rs... achoo! ...do your sneezes turn heads? try zyrtec... ...it starts working hard at hour one... and works twice as hard when you take it again the next day. zyrtec muddle no more.
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time to see how you responded to the survey question combat smerconish.com. which poses a greater threat to the election, fraud, administrative overload, postal delays or voter error? survey says 89% in the latter category with nearly 20,000 votes cast. katherine, we have time for one. make it a winner. what do we got? smerconish, cute to see you carrying truch's water by discrediting the election before it happens.
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discrediting it? hell, you missed the message. i'm sounding the alarm not about fraud but about bureaucratic inadequacies amidst the pandemic. you didn't get the message. i'll see you all here next week. ♪ good morning to you. we're grateful to have you here. it's saturday, august 8th i'm christi paul. >> i'm victor blackwell. you're in the cnn "newsroom." tens of thousands of people pouring into sturgis, south dakota. social distancing and masks are not required. the city is preparing for nearly 250,000 motorcycle riders, enthusists. you don't see that right this moment on that street. >> and this morning, millions of americans who are wondering when is there going to be some help? nearly 40 million people could be facing eviction by the end of the year. negotiations over a new stimulus
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