we got somewhere to be. >> you kneow, he -- he loves hi community. >> it's huge. >> couple thousand of his neighbors are left homeless. 15 people were killed in the fire and they've been through a lot. but the chief's still up there, every day, on the line, fighting the fire. >> start over, somehow. i just got to get everything done up here, and get the fire completely out and get people back in to see their stuff. and then, i can start trying to figure out what i'm going to do. but i'm definitely staying in barry creek. i'm definitely going to, somehow, rebuild. hopefully, fema will help us out. >> for woody's full story, go to cnnheroes.com right now. and thank you for watching, everyone. our coverage continues. and good evening. we are now poised on a precipice. tonight, or tomorrow, we'll likely record an all-time high number of new covid cases in one day.

the previous high was 77,000 cases in a day, that was back in july. as of right now, data people at johns hopkins have recorded nearly 72,000 infections, today. today is the fourth-highest toll. but that number will almost certainly grow throughout the evening. yesterday, there were more than 71,000 new cases and the trend line is rising. and that followed by hospitalizations, of course, and sadly increased deaths. we saw the same thing this summer and it is happening again. it's grim stuff. the president talked about it today. >> we're rounding the corner, beautifully. we're going to quickly end this pandemic. this horrible plague that came in from china. >> that's how he talks about it. we're rounding the corner beautifully, he said. that would be accurate if he means that, around the corner, there was a cliff or fast-moving truck heading toward us. we're on the cusp of breaking the record for new cases in a single day. and here is the president speaking to tens of millions of americans at last night's

debate. >> it will go away, and as i say, we're rounding the turn. we're rounding the corner. it's going away. >> he's, now, said that, or words to that effect, dozens of times since the pandemic arrived. this is nothing new. he's been saying it, from the very beginning of the pandemic. it's going to magically disappear. gone by easter. he said it, knowing it wasn't true, then. knowing how deadly the virus was. he admitted as much to bob woodward, back in early february. then, told woodward, in march, that he preferred to play the pandemic down. well, keeping him honest, the pandemic doesn't care about the president's preferences. another superspreader event, this one in pensacola, florida. where as usual, people behind him will be told to wear masks for the cameras. but virtually no one else will be doing that. why does it matter? just today researchers at the

university of washington published a new study in the journal nature medicine. right now, only about 49% of americans wear masks, regularly. which is pretty stunning. if it was 95% of us, 100,000 people's lives could be saved by the end of february. now, scientifically, it's -- it's that simple. but the president has sing single-handedly made it complex, he's made mask wearing political. and shown in his own behavior that it's perfectly acceptable to endanger other people by not wearing a mask. but in reality, it is that simple. if virtually everyone wears a mask in this country, 100,000 more people will live, will survive this pandemic, by the end of february. they won't die. now, even with near-universal mask wearing, the study's death figure is still heartbreaking. 381,000 people. but it could be more than half a million, if we just keep doing

what we're doing, with 49% of the country wearing masks. we will see nearly 400,000 people dead, according to the latest projection, by the end of february. so, given how simple the lifesaving answer is, given that it, literally, costs next to nothing. other than saying the right words and modeling the right behavior, what do you suppose the president is doing about it? >> this is jeff mason. he's got a mask on. that's the largest mask i think i've ever seen. so i don't know if you can hear him. >> that's the president, today, mocking a reporter, jeff mason, for wearing a mask, indoors, in the oval office. not a big space. surrounded by people, not wearing masks, all of whom, work for the president. and they all know the president doesn't like mask wearing. not wearing a mask, himself, and he makes fun of someone who is. if he were the ceo of a public company, mocking someone in the company for wearing a mask, pressuring everyone around him not to wear one, he would be removed as ceo. there would be lawsuits by employees, hr complaints.

he wouldn't last long, at all, as ceo. but this president. he isn't a ceo. i mean, i know he has a company or had a company but he's not really a ceo. he is the president and he is donald trump. if only he would wear a mask, and encourage all of us to wear them as well. this is a president who said, last night, if only briefly, before -- before quickly shifting the blame elsewhere that, yes, he does take responsibility for how this country's handled the pandemic. listen. >> and you say i take no responsibility. >> let me talk about your -- >> excuse me. i take -- i take full responsibility. it's not my fault that it came here. it's china's fault. and you know what? it's not joe's fault that it came here, either. it's china's fault. >> okay. so, his moment of accountability and self-awareness had the lifespan of a fruit fly, last night. i take full responsibility. of course, it's china's fault. that's leadership 101. but just for argument's sake, imagine if he said exactly the same thing last night, merely

adding a few words. what if he said i take responsibility but it's china's fault. but now that the virus is here, the simplest, cheapest, and most effective way of defeating it is to put on a mask and that's what i'm going to do. but, of course, he didn't do that because, it seems, he simply cannot. and today, he made fun of a reporter for wearing a mask. but imagine if the president said that. imagine if he decided to say that today because his supporters listen to him. many of them would listen to him. and the power of him setting the wrong example, that is real and it's costing real lives. it will cost 100,000 lives by the end of february. south dakota's governor, christi christine gnome, is one of his staunchest supporters and like him, doesn't want to wear a mask. if folks want to wear a mask, they should be free to do so. similarly, those who don't want to wear a mask shouldn't be shamed into wearing one and

government should not mandate it. south dakota is second only now to north dakota. positivity rate now approaching 22%. meantime, in north dakota, contact tracing is so overburdened all the new cases, officials are asking the infected to do it, themselves. let that sink in a moment. you are infected with covid. hey. can you do us a solid and trace all the people you came in contact with and call them up, you know, in between your coughing? all these months into a pandemic, and contact tracing, still, it's very state by state. yeah. some states devoted resources to it. some haven't. there's no coordinated, federal effort, at all. a strong message on mask wearing from the president would lighten the load on those contact tracers by lowering the case count. it would save 100,000 lives. i -- i -- not only can the president not bring himself to do that simple thing, he still can't even tell the truth about where we stand, right now.

>> we're entering the final turn, and approaching the light at the end of the tunnel. that's the way i look at it. >> he keeps using that phrase. that was a phrase that some generals and others used to describe the vietnam war, in the late '60s, they did it. like, i think it was 1968, people started talking about, yeah, i see the light at the end of the tunnel. turned out to be a very long and very deadly tunnel. again, the virus clearly does not care what the president says. it doesn't care that we are all tired of this. it's spreading, now, at a rate not seen since july. heading toward a third peak, higher than the first two. that is what is in this tunnel that we are in, right now. by the end of the weekend, 225,000 americans will have died in this country, in this pandemic. by the end of february, according to the new ihme study, 381,000 americans will be dead.

150,000, more, americans will die in the span of three more months. almost as many as have already died. that's how bad it's going to be, the next three months. and that is assuming that we all start wearing masks. if we don't, if states begin shutting down when death rates exceed a certain level, that number climbs to more than 511,000. if states continue removing social-distancing mandates, the new ihme study projects about a million people will be dead of covid, by february 28th. that's not rounding the corner, no matter how you describe it. joining us, now, is doctor and ihme director, chris murray. doctor, thanks for being with us. i know it feels like déjà vu. this persistent line, though, that the president peddles, about rounding the corner. are we, in any way, rounding the corner? >> well, i think we have rounded

the wrong corner, anderson. which is, this week, we're really seeing for the first time, as you mentioned, not only cases going up but, deaths going up. so we think that the fall-winter surge is kicking off. it's already kicked off, about a month ago, in canada. so, it should be no surprise it's happening here. and it's -- it's, you know, roaring in europe. and so, that's exactly what's going to happen to us. we're going to go into that exponential growth in cases and deaths, over the next weeks and months. >> your latest projections on fatalities predict more than 385,000 deaths in this country by february 1st. that assumes that some states will reimpose social-distancing mandates. do you have -- do you know which states, in particular, you think may have to do have that? and then, i guess, the flip side of that is, what if they don't? if they don't implement more

precautions? >> you talked about north dakota, south dakota. some of the states in the midwest, will have to put on social distancing mandates sooner because there is more virus out in the community. and as winter comes in, it's going to spread faster and faster. and then, some of the other states where it's not, you know, growing at the same rate, will, you know, be a month mibehind that. but absolutely, we're going to have to see what's happened in europe, reimposition of the mandates, to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed. or we're going to face, you know, a really large death toll. >> i -- i know the study on mask wearing, to me, is juastonishin. what are you hoping leaders take away from the study? in this state and this state, it's likely they're going to be -- you know, you're going to have to institute, you know, more -- i don't know if lockdown

is too severe a word but -- but more social-distancing mandates, in some of those states. not -- so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed. the fact that you know that now, it's not clear that the people who are in charge in those states are listening. >> well, you know, i think what we -- what we hope is that there will be clear guidance, leadership, from governors, from the federal government, to have a mask mandate. to have penalties if you don't wear a mask. and also, to start helping hospitals plan for what's coming. we're really back to march with, you know, the onslaught of the cases coming and we -- we should be better prepared this time. >> how can you know? how can you know hospitals are going to be challenged like that? we're going to see large numbers of people, like it was in march, going to the hospital?

>> so, fundamentally, what we've learnt and yo, you know, we hav been seeing this in the data for many months actually. covid is seasonal. you saw big epidemics in the southern hemisphere in the summer. now, if you just look at a map where covid is around the world, all the northern latitudes are essentially erupting. and it's the seasonal pattern we expected to see, and now it's occurring. you just look at the absolute, enormous wave in france and britain. you know, in belgium. italy. spain. and also, in quebec and ontario, canada, same story, they're well-above their april peak. and that's now what's happening in -- in -- in the northern states in the u.s., and it'll sweep through the rest of the country as the winter goes on. >> dr. chris murray, i appreciate you being with us. thank you very much. we welcome your expertise, even though the news is grim. more now on the politics of this. joining us senior cnn political

commentator, former top obama adviser, david axelrod. also, our chief political correspondent, dana bash. david, the president obviously continues to lie about the pandemic. rounding the turn. you know, saying again today that we're rounding the curve. it's going to end quickly. i mean, he has said repeatedly that when there is a vaccine, it's going to go away. it's going to end the pandemic. that is just not the case. you know, i -- i don't know what we do, as a country, when the president is just out and out lying about what -- what lies ahead, even in the time he will still be in office. even if he's voted out of office. >> yeah. you know, last night, during the debate, anderson, he was asked about this and the predictions of scientists about the time it will take for the vaccine to take hold in the country. and for us to move through the virus. and the president dismissed it and he said i know better than they do. well, he -- he -- he was the one who said that this was going to be gone by easter.

the vice president said it'd gone by memorial day. they've been consistently wrong, and the scientists have been consistently right, including predicting this fall surge. so it's -- it's -- it's -- it is -- it is disturbing. it's dangerous because the president continues to believe that he can spin this virus. but people are experiencing it. and this, of course, is his political problem. the reality that people are living in their lives, the reality on the ground, is different than the one that he shares with the american people. >> dana, it was kind of remarkable. president trump criticized vice president biden, today, saying all biden wants to talk about is the pandemic. you know, it's like -- you know, the president likes to call himself or used to like to call himself a wartime president. it's as if, during world war ii, you know, you're attacking the president for talking about the war a lot. i mean, if this is 223,000 americans are dead and another

150 or more are going to die -- 150,000 or more are going to die in the next three months. >> and those are the facts. the grim facts, as you put it. he believes that this is something, even though, as david said, it is, unfortunately, something that every american, in some way, shape, or form, is experiencing. but he has not been disabused of the fact that this is not one of the things that he has, through his lifetime, within able beena away. to charm away. to convince people that they're not seeing and feeling the effects of it, before their eyes. and, you know, i've had trump advisers say to me every single time he plays doctor on television, it hurts him. it hurts him more and more and more. but it's crunch time for him and he understands, fundamentally, that the more the discussion is about the coronavirus, and not other things, the worse it is for him because of his

leadership of this. and because it is a referendum on him, his presidency. but most importantly, on how he has handled what we're all going through right now as a country. >> and, david, the president continues to say because of his actions, he prevented an estimated 2 million deaths in this country. that estimate is based on the government doing nothing. as if the government just stood by, and watched people die. if the government did nothing, the estimate was 2 million people would die. that's hardly something to take credit for, you know, 2 million deaths that, yeah, if you had done nothing. yeah, you've done better than doing nothing. but 223,000 americans dead, with more than 150,000 dying in the next couple months. that's -- i mean, it's -- it's -- it's unthinkable. >> well, and -- and -- and, you know, look. the -- the facts are -- are harsh and they're immutable. the fact is that we have -- we

have 4% of the world's population, and we have had about 20% of the world's deaths. and that is a terrible indictment of what we, as a country, have done. other countries, the whole world, is suffering through this and he is absolutely right about that. but other countries have been much more methodical and guided by science. and they, as a result, have had a much lower mortality than we have, here. and, you know, what's interesting about this is the president, himself, gets the virus. and instead of using that as a teaching moment for the country, he is using it to, once again, do what he did from the beginning, which is to minimize the virus. and, you know, the -- the country pays a price for his lack of leadership. >> yeah. dana, david, stay with us. i want to get your take on the rest of the bigger campaign picture. john king joins us as well to break down what will be driving these final i days of the election. and later, mary trump and what

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president sounding pleased about his debate performance last night. what was seen as a gaffe. he said he would transition from oil to, quote, cleaner sources of energy. >> one of the most stunning moments last night was when joe biden admitted that he wants to

abolish the oil industry. that wasn't too good. did you see him this morning? this morning, i didn't really mean that. i didn't mean that. that was last question they talked about that. i said, whoa, this is the big point of the evening. remember, i said, you want to get rid of oil and gas? yeah, well, we want to phase it out. i said, thank you, texas, are you watching? pennsylvania? oklahoma, ohio, are you watching? >> those are, of course, key states, ohio and pennsylvania are swing states. the question has it materially changed the direction of this race? for that, we turn to cnn national correspondent, john king. >> the biden campaign thinks nothing big changed. they think the map stays like this. they have the advantage. they have money. they have momentum, heading into the final days. the trump campaign thinks something different especially on the issue of energy and

fracking. they think mr. biden made a mistake in the debate. trump says that's going to help in pennsylvania, that's going to help in ohio. that's going to help in texas. it's an if but if it were the case, that would help the president get back into play if he could get pennsylvania and return ohio to the fold, that would get him back into play but he would still have a ton more to do. so let's switch maps as we get into the challenges of the final weeks. who knows if that's the case? polling will tell us in a few days. but now, we watch. they have data, they have interaction with their voters. so how will this play out in the final days? number one, watch the ad spending. not just where they are spending but if the message in those ads change, if the strategy changes. right now, the former vice president's spending more money than the current president. joe biden's big spending is in florida, north carolina, arizona, texas, michigan, wisconsin. all, states carried by the president four years ago. the president, look, minnesota, new hampshire. he knows the map is not as good

to him. he is trying to find some new opportunities. so far, hasn't turned up. watch if this strategy holds. that's one way to look at it. another way to look at it is even if the biden campaign did have some missteps in the way. look at the advantage joe biden has heading into the final ten days of this campaign. $162 million in his campaign coffers compared to 43 million for the president. that is lopsided. if you add up the friendly committees, to try to expand the map even if the candidates don't go there. one more thing to watch. again, candidates see the data before we see the data. so where do they go? that tells you a lot about what they think. right now, joe biden, delaware and pennsylvania. two stops in pennsylvania on the weekend. and then, next week, senator harris, georgia, ohio, michigan. again, trying to change the map

in georgia. trying to get the midwest back in the democratic fold. the vice president and president, they know they're trailing. watch where they go. the vice president supposed to go to minnesota, a state they lost four years ago. so watch the money. watch the candidates. by early next week, we will get to watch the polling to have any idea whether the debate puts the map more something like this or if it still stays lopsided in joe biden's favor. anderson. >> john, thanks very much. we are back with cnn's david axelrod and dana bash. david, do you think the vice president's comments on fracking, oil, and gas, are going to hurt him in states like texas? >> i'm sure he has supporters in those states who may have winced with the way he answered that question. but the position he's taken is very clear. it's in his platform. and that is to phase out fossil fuels over the next 30 years. he could have -- he could've worded it more artfully.

and yes, in western pennsylvania, there are tens of thousands of people who are employed in the fracking industry. and they were potentially listening. and certainly, the president may turn this into ads very quickly. he's had a steady lead there, biden. he's a neighboring state. but this, you know, potentially a little bit of turbulence. overall, i think he feels good where he is. >> dana, it was clear whether or not -- sorry, go ahead, dana. >> no, i just want to add one -- one sort of anecdote about western pennsylvania. i was just there a couple weeks ago, in the very part of the state that the republicans of the trump campaign, they are hoping to get even more voters on their side than they did four years ago. for example, west moreland county is where we were. donald trump got 16,000 more votes in that county, alone, than mitt romney did four years

before him. that was about a third of the overall number of votes that he won pennsylvania by. and so, that is why, democrats, i also was communicating with some democrats. they more than winced in hearing how the former vice president phrased his position. and it's not so much because they thought it was different or bad but it's because they're completely ready for it to be used against biden in ads that may not be entirely accurate. but it will probably be political fair game. >> yeah. i mean, one thing to say, you know, that's -- it's in his policy platform and stuff. but to hear him emphasize, as david said, dana, you know, the way he said it. it was clearly a gift to president trump. >> that's certainly -- i mean, if you -- if you look at the way the president reacted immediately, realtime, he heard it. he knew exactly what joe biden said. and the fact that before the debate was over, the trump campaign, they were already, you

know, putting out videos of what joe biden said. not just befo but the key to that is they have a lot of energy, as david said, in pennsylvania and elsewhere. if they get the numbers up in philadelphia suburbs, it might not matter in other parts of the state, which is a crucial part for joe biden and his path to 270 electoral votes. >> david, if you were the biden campaign, where would you be focusing your time, resources, and the candidate? >> well, look, pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin. they used to call it the blue wall for democrats. they are trying to reconstruct the blue wall. one of the appeals for biden as a candidate for the democrats is that he is particularly -- has particular kinship to these states. his profile. his -- his history is good for those states. and i think they want to defend those states. but they see, obviously, florida's a huge battleground. they could end this race, on election night, if florida comes in for biden. and they see some opportunities

in states like georgia, north carolina, and arizona in particular. 60% of the state is one, big, suburban area, maricopa county, there around phoenix. very promising for them. that's -- those are the places that i'd be concentrating on right now. >> dana, i mean, compared to previous elections, you know, more than 50 million people have already voted. do we know how that affects things, one way or another? >> not really, anderson. these are unchartered waters we're in right now. some key states, what they are seeing right now with regard to early voting, absentee, is maybe more than half of the overall vote that they saw in 2016. we don't know how that is going to add up, when we see the final votes counted. i mean, the republicans absolutely assume, for lots of reasons, that most of their

voters are going to go out and vote on election day. first of all, because that's kind of their tradition. it's cultural. but, second, because the guy at the top of the ticket has been talking down the notion of early voting, much to the chagrin of many republican operatives i talk to. so, we really don't know what makes election night, election day, election week, whatever you're going to call it, really interesting, exciting, and nailbiting to say the least. >> yeah. dana -- yeah. >> one -- one of the questions about election day is if this coronavirus peaks in the next ten days, as we're hearing from -- from some of the scientists, what effect does that have on those voters who were planning to vote on election day? >> yeah. that's another good point. david axelrod, thank you. dana bash as well. we're going to continue the conversation ahead with someone who knows the president very well. tell us how long he can keep this tone from last night. his niece, mary trump, joins us next.

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temporarily new tone. praise, today, for debate moderator, kristen welker, who days ago, he called terrible and unfair. substantively, however, nothing has changed. the president's continued to lie today, as we mentioned earlier, about