news day with us. just four days left now on the election calendar, the final weekend of a campaign truly like no other. already 84 million of you have cast your votes and now an urgent messaging shift from the democrats from vote by mail to vote by dropbox to vote in person. early voting closing today in seven states, including two the biden campaign views as in play, arizona and georgia. the president visits michigan, wisconsin, and minnesota. vice president pence campaigns in arizona, joe biden is in iowa, minnesota and wisconsin. senator kamala harris spends the day in a fascinating 2020 question mark, texas. the president is in a familiar place in need of a giant comeback. this time there is scant

evidence of trump momentum. the coronavirus surge is perhaps the biggest head wind. thursday was the worst day of the pandemic when you consider cases, 88,000 plus added to the count. the u.s. daily average is now 76,000 new infections a day. everywhere you look, red and orange. 43 states where cases are up this week versus last week. only two, only two pushing their case curves down. the president blames this rise in cases on testing. well, that's a lie. defies the science but a lie he repeats. yes, testing is up but so are positivity rates and hospitalizations and the increase in the number of cases far outpaces the increase in the number of tests. let's begin with the campaign and this map here. we begin to fill it in four nights from now, the red and blue of who you pick for the presidency. let's go back to 2016 to view it

in the context of where we see the candidates today. just take a look at how the map is tilted right now in favor of joe biden. doesn't mean donald trump can't make it up. senator harris is texas, 48/46 a trump advantage but we're saying the word texas in the final days of a presidential campaign tells you the incumbent is in trouble. iowa, a tie there, part of the donald trump red map four years ago. let's move to the midwest. where donald trump is president because of pennsylvania, wisconsin and michigan. in wisconsin, looks like a comfortable biden lead, see if it can hold up. michigan a biden lead. donald trump had momentum at this point four years ago, we don't see it right now. the question is can he generate high turn out to overcome early voting in the final election. let's switch maps to get a sense of where we are in the race to 270. that's how we pick the president, not the popular vote

but state by state. biden has the advantage, 290 to 163. pennsylvania was the path to trump victory, right now leaning towards joe biden. this is a mind blowing early voting number. democrats believe in most places this gives them an advantage. the question is can they finish. can democrats finish over the final four days which is why they're worried in you have a mail-in ballot, do not put it in a post office box they say, put it in a dropbox because they're not sure it will get there. think of one of the states, pennsylvania could come down to pennsylvania's 20 votes, the whole campaign could come down to one state. pennsylvania. of those who requested mail-in ballots, 27% of the registered democrats who requested a mail-in ballot in pennsylvania have not returned it yet. 41% of registered republicans in pennsylvania who requested a mail-in ballot have not returned it yet.

the campaigns know this. they have this data. they have the huge challenge of the final days, find your missing votes. get them to a dropbox or the polling place. before we begin the conversation, i want to do one thing. let's go back here. this is the trump map from four years ago. you see the red. why would senator harris be in texas today? is it really in play? can't be. democrats say every four years, yes, joe biden needs pennsylvania, is leading in wisconsin, michigan, if joe biden can get the blue wall back, the wall trump cracked it's probably game over. the blue states are hillary clinton states. none of them right now expected to flip. if the democrats could flip texas, joe biden is the president of the united states even if he loses wisconsin, minnesota, pennsylvania, florida, georgia and iowa. if the democrats can flip texas, america would be remade when it

comes to presidential politics which is why the candidates are everywhere, busy on the campaign trail and also busy on tv. >> under president trump, america is stronger, safer and more prosperous than ever before. >> and ladies and gentlemen, the best is yet to come. >> we have to choose between change and more of the same. ♪ >> this is your campaign. >> let's begin our conversation this hour with abby phillip and alex burns. >> abby, you're in the final campaign now and it becomes chess. especially when i started campaigns you didn't have early voting at this level, a, but, b, you didn't have the data. they know who voted who has not voted. and the challenge is get the ones who haven't, grab them by the collar, get them to a dropbox, polling place or make

sure they show up on election day. >> this is the get out the vote stage of the whole campaign. at this point i think both campaigns understand they're not persuading a lot of people. and even if they were, this year compared to four years ago, just a pool of undecided voters is a lot smaller. people know what their choices are and they're making it. but you have to look at those numbers and think, was it -- i think we know the answer to it, it was not a wise decision for president trump to discourage his voters from voting early, compared to the democrats. you have a lop sided early voting situation in a number of states that is going to make the election day dynamic for republicans very dire. the president is going to have to really go gang busters with his supporters showing up on election day to overcome this massive 84 million ballot early vote. and we still have several days left. that's not a position that republicans should have been in.

this was not how things were prior to this year. the president made it that way. and on tuesday, his supporters really need to perform for him otherwise this is going to be a tough night. >> to that point, i just mentioned texas if the democrats can flip texas, i know republicans are rolling their eyes saying that's a pipe dream, it's not going to happen. if they could, the math is overwhelming. another place if they can't get texas, the next biggest prize is florida, 29 votes there, trump and biden both there yesterday. let's listen to a little bit of flavor from that. >> the heart and soul of this country is at stake. right here in florida, it's up to you, you hold the key. if florida goes blue, it's over. it's over. >> now we're doing incredibly in florida. we're doing incredibly all over. this isn't based on polls. this is based on fact. this is based on votes that are coming in. >> this is a fascinating time in the campaign because depending on who you talk to, joe biden is

on the verge of this potential map changing win, big win. or it's bare knuckles, florida, florida, come down to pennsylvania, electoral chess. >> that's right. i do think that one of the striking things about the position that we all find ourselves in right now is that florida is a close and hard fought race. usually when florida is that close, it means the national race is also very close. you don't have blue out wins in florida if the national race is not also a massive landslide and then sometimes you don't. john, right now the race in florida is close. the national race is not that close. that's why you end up with a situation where a state like texas, george, north carolina, traditionally solid republican states are in play the way they are. i hear less eye rolling on the republican side today when it comes to texas certainly than i did two weeks ago. there's concern in the party there's going to be total

wreckage for republicans down ballot in the suburbs down of houston and dallas. if the numbers stay similar to right now, president trump cannot take that state for granted. i think it's telling that he is not actively defending a state like texas because john if texas goes, that means a lot of other stuff is already gone that he needs to hold the line in a place like florida, a place like pennsylvania because if those flip and texas flips, too. then texas is a lot of icing on the cake. >> a lot of people might not have believed the polls in texas but the early voting numbers are getting a ton of attention. this is a case where the president's campaign doesn't have the money it should need. abby, back to the point about voting right now. the biden campaign has this golden opportunity no question about it. but you have to finish the execution especially with the threat of the legal challenges looming. joe biden has some of these, who

you are as a person, what you are pushing as policy but joe biden spending a bit of his money, he has an advantage right now, on a tutorial, if you have a mail-in ballot do not put it in a blue box, find a drop box. >> proud boys stand back and stand by. >> they're bringing crime. >> it's an interesting approach a little bit of messaging in there, donald trump's voice but trying to help people if they're confused, because this can be confusing with court rulings, different rulings in different states, do this right because we need the vote. >> it's important as you said. they have messaged successfully to their supporters that they have a lot of ways of voting. and by all accounts, the biden supporters are showing up in

these different ways. but at this stage there are only two options. drop it in the ballot box or drop box, take it in had, which is virtually the same thing or vote in person. one of the interesting things about so much of the early vote being in, and some of these states in texas, for example, the entirety of the 2016 turn out has already turned out is that now you can really hyper focus on the people who you know haven't turned in their ballots or haven't gone in person to follow-up with them. i think both campaigns are going to be trying to do that, but based on the pool of supporters and the partisan split in who's voting early. the voters that republicans need to follow-up with is so large and as you pointed out, they have less money, less resources. it'll be interesting to see how that dynamic shapes up going in. the biden campaign knows what they have to do, they're messaging to their supporters and they have the resources to

do it. >> there's more cash on the democratic side. the trump campaign said and we'll see if they can prove it, they have build this ground operation that is going to blow us away on election day. which is why you get a split, charlie cook saying the senate is less a case of whether democrats will take a majority but how large will it be. joe biden may replicate ronald reag reagan's 10 point win over president carter. and then you have if i take my ptsd hat off, you can feel semicomfortable but it's hard to take that off. so we go into the final weekend where execution is everything. >> democrats have reached the acceptance stage that they are never going to be able to see the events of this election in any light except the light cast in 2016 and those results. but john i think to your point about execution, this is a real

sort of pull back the curtain and see whether there's a wizard there or not moment for the trump campaign that we have for the last couple years heard a lot of big promises for the political operation around the president about the sophistication of their data operation, their targeting operation, voter registration and fund-raising. the last couple months we have seen some of those turn out not quite what they were cracked up to be. especially on the fund-raising operation. the question is do they have the turn out machinery they claim to have. and if they don't, and frankly even if they do, but if they don't, did the work they put in the last few years to register new republican voters like in pennsylvania, give them enough cushion that the early voting is not everything it's cracked up to be for the democrats. >> that's why we do the math

starting into the final weekend. thank you both for the insights. up next, coronavirus cases hit a new record high in the united states. experts are warning things are about to get worse. first, another campaign flash back. this, the final debate 40 years ago, 1980. >> i had to make thousands of decisions since i've been president serving in the oval office. and with each one of those decisions that affect the future of my country i have learned in the process. >> ask yourself, are you better off than you were four years ago?

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the coronavirus numbers are simply numbing. more than a half million new infections added in the united states this week alone.

nearly 90,000 added just yesterday in what is now an all-time high. the nation on track to top 9 million total cases today. let's look at the dynamics starting with the national map. you see the red and orange, those of you familiar with it you know that's the wrong direction. 43 states now reporting more new covid infections this week compared to last week. you see michigan is one of the deep red states, oregon, alabama, the deep red, that means 50% or higher rate of new if he c infections this week compared to last week. 88,000 yesterday that's a record high. we went through the summer surge, look where we are now, well above it and that line pointing in a straight up trajectory. it's dangerous. let's look at hospitalizations also heading up now. the first peak around 60000.

the summer surge around 60,000. you see the trend line, the blue line inside the circle headed up as well. there are no silver linings here, deaths from coronavirus in the united states, will this start to go up? you see the flat blue line it's been a relative plateau but the projections say it will go above 1,000 on a consistent basis, some say 1,500 or higher a day. yesterday it was 971. let's discuss these numbers with the director for duke. doctor, i'm grateful for your time on what is a sober day when you look at the numbers. when you see the trajectory, getting close to 90,000 new infections a day. what must be done to slow that before hospitalizations get out of control? several states are stretched

already, but before that spreads to more. >> it's not just the level but as you said, the rate of growth in many parts of the country, growing number of parts of the country is accelerating. we're over 90,000 cases a day now and many states the testing positivity rate is very high, which means they're probably missing a significant number of cases and this is accelerating. the rate of the transmission of the virus everywhere in the country is over 1. so we're going to be over 100,000 cases very soon and that is going to have ramifications for hospitalizations. even though we're getting better at the treatment in the hard hit areas, the hospital is working really hard, more deaths. we know what can be done to slow this down, people are tired of having to deal with the pandemic, but it's the usual steps, masks, distancing, many areas are imposing new restrictions again. if you look at areas that are hardest hit, people are changing

what they do. they're going out less, starting to have an economic impact. the more we can get ahead of these trends, by following the steps that we know work the better. we're seeing that happen in some parts of the country much better than others. >> i want you to listen. we have 50 states -- you know how this works, it's one of the complications. one of the gifts of america is we have 50 states and they each chart their own course. one of the problems is 50 states charting their own course when they're trying to have a national solution. listen to the governor of ohio who says right now he has a miss on his hands. >> this is by far the highest number of cases we have ever seen during the entire pandemic. in fact, it's about 700 cases more than our previous high, which was just a few days ago. virus is raging throughout the state of ohio. there's no place to hide.

>> i have you here as a doctor, dr. mcclelland, and that's where i want your expertise and insights. but you served in a republican administration. help me break through to people who are told by the leader of this country and others, don't believe what you hear on cnn, don't believe what you hear from the doctors, they're all part of a deep state, they're lying to you, we rounded the corner and everything is okay? >> i think there are a lot of republican leaders around the country who are trying to get the facts out and trying to explain, like you heard from governor dewine, what can be done to slow the spread. governor abbott in texas, governor hutchinson in arkansas have both supported mask mandates in in the state. this isn't a nanny state approach, people aren't getting fines for following these evidence-based recommendations but talking about the approaches that do work, like masks and with travel upcoming.

it's being careful. i know people don't want to be all by themselves after so much time in the pandemic. keeping the group small, being careful about your pod, creating a bubble around people you spend time with. governors around the country, republican and democrat are helping to support the efforts and that's the model we need, john. >> what, in your experience, is the best way to break through it? the i ask that as someone who would love to do a better job myself please listen to the data and the facts. i want to show you the united states versus the european union, who did a better job than the united states shoving down the line early. look, that's the green line. the european union is now going up at a faster pace but what public health experts tell me, if you look at the beginning in march, we went up the hill a couple weeks behind them and the fear is we're going a couple weeks behind them as well and

we'll catch up or surpass them. how do you convince people, what data point, look at this, please change your behavior? >> we're in many areas of the country a few weeks behindup. they let down their guard a bit. people travelled together, interacted more. and these trends once they start are hard to reverse. you have to take really intensive steps to get back towards control and not overwhelm health systems. so we do see, around the united states, ways that can keep infections down within the state of texas there are some areas doing better than others, and other parts of the country as well. let's look at those models and try to adopt them more. john, there are a couple things that are coming soon that could help. more testing at the point of care. these tests aren't perfect but they're being used in schools and work place settings like the nba and baseball they were used to keep infections down. and new treatments that may be coming as well.

for the next couple of months, the most important thing we can do is these basic steps and hopefully make progress. >> doctor, thank you for your time and expertise. up next we go back to the campaign trail. live updates from our reporters around the country as president trump and joe biden target the midwest today. when i was in high school, this was the theater i came to quite often. ♪ the support we've had over the last few months has been amazing. i have a soft spot for local places. it's not just a work environment. everyone here is family. gonna go ahead and support him, get my hair cut, leave a big tip. if we focus on our local communities, we can find a way to get through this together.

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the battleground states get most of the attention as we enter the campaign's final weekend and the race to 270 electoral votes impacted this year by record shattering early voting. cnn is lucky to have correspondents across the states. let's start with bill weir in madison, wisconsin. >> reporter: here in the badger state, about one in three quarters of a million votes are already in. the state normally casts around 3 million so they are bracing for a busy election day. there are 200 national guardsmen on stand by in case a lot of volunteers go sick due to covid

as the virus tears through the state at alarming rates. the president will be in green ga today for a makeup rally for when he cancelled when he had covid-19. joe biden down in milwaukee. one of the few places where the black vote is not turning out in the numbers they enjoyed in 2008 when barack obama won here. to check things next door to the east, let's go to miguel marquez, in michigan. >> reporter: we are in oakland county, just north of detroit. this is the suburbs, the all important suburbs, donald trump is oakland county today a rally. this is a place that hillary clinton won in 2016, donald trump won the state by 10,704 votes. it is a place where joe biden and barack obama will appear in their first joint appearance as well tomorrow. early voting going on very, very heavily here mostly by mail. this line behind me, these are people coming in to do early

voting in person. you have to go to your clerk's office, there is a line, but you can do it. that's how motivated many voters are here. another place where voters are motivated, pennsylvania. that's where we find our colleague, sarah murray. sarah? >> reporter: i'm in west chester, pennsylvania, one of those philadelphia suburbs a place the president needs to stop the bleeding in addition to running up the numbers in red states more than 2 million voters in pennsylvania have sent in their mail-in ballots here it's more than 115,000 they can't start counting them yet but they can sort them. these counties have added heavy machinery to do just that. it's a busy run up until election day. joe biden will be here, jill biden will be here and kamala harris. >> election workers getting to

work. it's important. god bless them all people trying to count the votes across the country. grateful they're out there. voters in two battleground state may have to adjust plans, a court ruled thursday absentee ballots in minnesota must be received by election day, and any after have to be separated. it set aside a plan to allow the ballots to come in as late as a week after election day, as long as they were postmarked by november 3rd. the appeals court where there is no pandemic exception to the constitution. better to put those voters on know its now while they have still have at least some time to adjust their plans and cast their votes. in butler county, pennsylvania, a number of ballots have yet to be delivered to voters who requested them. the latest with christen holmes. >> reporter: we're talking about missing ballots, new court

cases, deadlines changing. this is crazy stuff now. people are fixated they don't know what they're supposed to do. in minnesota you're hearing the state officials telling everyone, do not mail your ballot. if you are sitting on a ballot, thought you'd drop it in the mail, don't do it. there are drop off locations open until 3:00 p.m. election day and that's your best bet. the appeals court ruling decided it was against state law and the ballots after 8:00 p.m. had to be segregated. but the question is what if i mailed by ballot yesterday or two days ago. i thought i had an extra week, what happens to my ballot then? that's a great question and not one the court of appeals answered. they kicked that decision back to a district court four days before an election. we are expecting this to go up through the court system. listen to what the governor said yesterday. >> i think, you know, this will obviously go further up the --

up through the judiciary to get a decision. at this point in time, people can avoid it by going and dropping their ballots off in person. in minnesota we have same day registration so they can vote on tuesday. >> reporter: minnesota missing ballots, missing ballots in pennsylvania, butler county what we know right now, no known number of the missing ballots however they have received 10,000 plus calls people who thought they requested a ballot, did request a ballot, haven't received it. the director is blaming it on the postal service but not a great problem to have in a critical swing state before the election. >> it's not. the burden is on everybody watching, unfortunately, if you haven't gotten your ballot or have a question, you have to figure it out yourself, don't trust the post office. make a plan, get it done. up next, back to the coronavirus. and dr. anthony fauci gives an update on the vaccine timeline.

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we know the president's prediction of a coronavirus vaccine before election day was wrong. and we also know some of the drug companies racing to develop

a vaccine have been overly optimistic about the timeline. pfizer predicted it would know by the end of this month if the candidate would work or not, that data still unavailable. there is still hope that one of the vaccine candidates will be ready by the end of the year. and dr. anthony fauci predicting today that when one is ready, others are likely to be close behind. >> pfizer and moderna both went into phase three on july 27th. close behind them is the astrazeneca, and the john -- j&j trial, and then we have the trial of novavax. so we would likely, francis, start seeing results from moderna and pfizer at approximately the same time. >> joining us now is dr. paul offit. it's good to see you again.

you have, for months, been a voice of caution saying don't believe these predictions, these things get complicated. where do you see where we are right now? we won't have it by election day, tuesday, but when people talk about the end of the year, do you see that as possible? >> it's possible. the only group that really knows this is a group called the data safety monitoring board. they are looking at each of the trials. they're a firewall between the company and the trial itself. they know who got the vaccine, the placebo, who has gotten sick and who hasn't. they have the idea of how we're doing. the question is how much uncertainty are we willing to live with. the size of the trials are typical of any trial we've done for 70 years. moderna is 30,000 pfizer is 70000. the difference between these trials and every trial in the

past is how long we're studying it. these will be six month studies. are we comfortable with safety and efficacy in six months? but we have to be. we're facing 230,000 deaths from this virus so the benefits are huge. >> i go through the case counts every day, above 80,000 above 76,000 but posting 80,000 cases a day. the imhe projects by february 1st, 399,000 americans, you see we're almost at 229,000 now. anybody watching this, saying where is the vaccine and therapeutics. does the fact that the case count, the trends right now are as bad as they are, the vaccine development is inside a firewall. are you affected by the politics of the day, the numbers of the day or keep blinders on? >> keep blinders on.

i'm part of the fda advisory committee and we'll review the data when it becomes available and we'll hold them to the same stand dar we hold any vaccine. would i give it to myself or my family. we're not members of the government. so we'll give it a clear, honest opinion of what we think about the vaccine. >> doctor, grateful as always for your time and insights and your steady voice of caution and science. it'll be helpful as we stick with you through the final phases. up next we go through early numbers in texas that are simply mind blowing. in the bay area, we believe in science.

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which is at risk of shutdown because of the crisis. to keep millions of cars off our roads, to reduce air pollution and fight climate change. and measure rr helps essential workers like me get to work and keep our communities healthy. relieve traffic. reduce pollution. rescue caltrain. [all] yes on measure rr. of a presidential campaign is setting records and demanding we pay close attention this time. texas. look there. today, word more than 9 million texans have already cast ballots. that surpasses the 2016 total. today is the last day to add to that. dallas morning news says entering the home stretch. in el paso, texas, turning out

to vote. harris county, one of the largest counties in the country, this headline. increasingly blue harris county would help swing texas to biden. let's discuss with ron brownstein. he joins me now. again, we're talking about texas tells you a lot. start with harris county. in land mass, it is bigger than rhode island, in population, the 25th, in the middle. it would be the 25th state in terms of population. the voting there is off the charts. it is emblematic of what, suburban revolt against this president? >> it is emblematic of changing politics of the entire country, how texas is joining that changing politics. basically under donald trump we have seen a widening divide between metro and nonmetro america. you could throw an imaginary beltway around every major metropolitan center in the country, inside that it is getting more blue, even as it remains red outside that. for years, texas was essentially

immune to the transformation. started in the '90s on the coast, extended to virginia, colorado, but texas was bypassed. not any more. look at the five biggest urban counties, 2012 obama won them by 130,000 votes. 2016, hillary by 560. 2018, beto by 790. six times as much as obama. look at the turnout levels in the metros, it is entirely possible biden will win by more than a million votes. even if trump's strength allows him to hold the state, the trend line is clear toward a competitive texas given all the activity that's happening. >> texas republicans are petrified. even if the president holds on narrowly, they see huge gains in u.s. house districts and giant gains in texas legislature for democrats, so they see it as a turning point, if you will. senator harris is there today,

going to fort worth, mccallum, and houston. explain why that is vote targeting smart. >> so great political scientist at university of houston, richard murray, tracked long term trajectory of the vote in the three regions. the metro centers, four big metro regions, dallas, forth, austin, san antonio, houston, are going to hit 70% of the total vote. that's where biden has to run up the score. you see that reflected in her being in houston. probably needs a margin of 900,000 to a million when you include the suburban areas around urban centers i mentioned. the next piece for the democrats is the ballot, largely hispanic parts of the state. that's where they're struggling. historically, there are not many competitive races, competitive races are the primary. nobody spends money there. bloomberg and others are trying to flip the statehouse. democrats are worried they won't get the vote they need, margins

out of that to offset what's likely to be 3-1 advantage for trump among the rough little over 20% of the state that's rural. i think that the decision here, texas will tip on how much of the vote is ultimately cast in urban centers versus how much is cast in the rural. trump will have 1.2 in the rural areas, and if the share of overall is bigger in urban, you can come closer to the rural number and then the valley can put you over the top. more likely, safest bet, trump squeezes it out. but no question what the handwriting is on the wall. >> make a lot of fun math tuesday night, maybe into wednesday morning. appreciate you setting it up. coming up, new spike in cases is impacting the final days of the campaign. many families are struggling with the demands of work and parenting and educating kids. this brings us to sheldon smith. for the last decade, he talked

parenting and life kills to those that want to be better dads. covid-19 caused layoffs for many of them. sheldon took action so they had resources and support they need. >> the message i'm trying to spread is that black fathers are important. when businesses are closing, doing layoffs, we wanted to make sure our fathers knew that we were there for them. >> how many boxes of food you need? >> just one box. >> we give you two. >> young men in our program have beautiful hearts and they are volunteering their time so they can be better fathers. and right now, we are talking about the injustices in america that need to be changed. we have to continue to believe and work together and not make it about when a death occurs that this is the time we need to stand up. right now as a country, as a nation we have an opportunity to change and show the world what we're really made of. once you invest, build, and

believe, you bring about a different solution. >> all right. thank you so much. >> to see the full story, go to cnnheroes.com. for so long. it was kind of a shock after i started cosentyx. i'm still clear, five years now. cosentyx works fast to give you clear skin that can last. real people with psoriasis look and feel better with cosentyx. don't use if you're allergic to cosentyx. before starting, get checked for tuberculosis. an increased risk of infections and lowered ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor about an infection or symptoms,

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scott wiener immediately went to work, making sure families could put food on their tables, defending renters facing eviction, securing unemployment benefits, helping neighborhood businesses survive. scott wiener will never stop working until california emerges from this crisis. the bay area needs scott's continued leadership in sacramento. because we know scott is fighting for all of us. re-elect scott wiener for state senate. hello to viewers in the united states and around the world. thank you for sharing your day with us. four days until america's picks its president. clear objectives for each candidate. the president's mission, retrace the 2016 path to