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this is the last chance for joe biden and for the president to sway voters. we will focus, tonight, on every place that could make a difference this time, and everything that's different, compared to 2016. now, already, we have seen record, early voting. you know that. in texas, in fact, more ballots have already been cast than the entire total four years ago, early and day-of voting, combined. that's, of course, a big difference. but driving it and hanging over it all is the pandemic. today saw cases top 9 million. and just moments ago, the country hit, yet another, new, sad record for daily cases. more than 89,888 lives lost. the final numbers won't be calculated until after midnight. so cases will, almost certainly, top 900,000 -- excuse me, 90,000, today. the deaths will also continue rising at the current rate, 40 people will die over the course of the next hour. while you are at home or maybe listening in the gym or in your

car, 40 americans will die. some of those deaths are preventable, if more people would wear masks. but not enough of us care to, including the president. joe biden and kamala harris continue to hold socially-distanced campaign events. the president and vice president continue to hold campaign events that make it easy for the virus to spread. he is telling crowds of maskless people, crammed together, that they are social distancing and wearing masks. he is saying the virus is going away. it's not, of course. it's spreading. the death toll is actually underreported. do americans care about these lies, these insults? well, we'll find out, in about four days, if there are any consequences for the president. and for the jaded among you, fur wondering how long it would take for the president to remind us all what a total lie his so-called endorsement of mask wearing was just yesterday. here he is today in michigan with a shoutout to a fox news

host in the crowd. >> where is laura? where is she? where is laura? i can't recognize you. is that a mask? no, way. are you wearing a mask? i've never seen her in a mask. look at you. oh, she's being very politically correct. >> it took the wise owl less time to get to the center of a tootsie pop than anyone who believes this president has changed his tune on this or any covid-related subject. he hasn't and he won't. here he is, at the same rally, claiming doctors are getting rich from covid. >> our doctors get more money if somebody dies from covid. you know that, right? i mean, our doctors are very smart people. so, what they do is they say, i'm sorry, but, you know, everybody dies of covid. but in germany and other places, if you have a heart attack or if you have cancer, you're terminally ill, you catch covid, they say you died of cancer, you died of heart attack. with us, when in doubt, choose covid. it's true. no, it's true.

>> no, it's not true. the doctors and nurses are risking their lives. they, very possibly, saved the life of that man, right there. and this is how our president treats them. our frontline heroes. it's not enough for this self-described wartime president to get our fellow citizens hating and fighting one another. he is now trying to get us to turn on the very people who are defending us, on the front lines, fighting this virus. and his supporters nod their heads there. they cheer and they jeer. that is what we have become. as cases have been rising, more people have been getting sick enough to be hospitalized. 14 states, today, reaching record numbers. and even though treatment has improved since the early days, deaths have begun rising again as well. so, no, mr. president, it's not that we're testing more because, in some states, actually with your encouragement, we're testing less. they are risking their lives,

along with nurses and hospital staffs to save others. the numbers are rising and more people are getting sick and dying because we're in the middle of a raging pandemic, that you have failed to deal with from the very beginning. today, florida, that key, battleground state, became only the third state, along with california and texas, to pass the 800,000-case mark. according to the data team at johns hopkins university, reporting more than 5,100 new infections just today. more on how florida, texas, and all the current hot spots, as people adapt to voting on what quite literally are life-and-death issues. john king joins us for that. >> to your point you were just making, anderson, this is everybody's daily lives. and what the president is telling them right now is not the truth. so four nights from now, we will fill this in with red and blue. which way to states go? add up the electoral votes, we

get a president. it is covid in america. it is not democrat or republican or independent. look at this map. the red is pain. the pink is pain. the orange is pain. this is covid cases per 100,000 residents. the darker the color, the higher the rate. everywhere in america, think about where the president was today. a lot of pain in michigan, in recent months. even more pain in wisconsin. look at all that red, especially right now. minnesota has also had problems, including rural areas that are very important to the president. senator harris was in texas, today. democrats think, sick thing to say in some ways, the coronavirus works to their advantage because they want leadership to be the issue. the vice president was in arizona. remember the summer surge? how much pain we went through out there? when you look at this map, everywhere in america, but especially in battleground america, there is a lot of problems right now. that is one way to look at the impact on this campaign. let me just show one other way we can look at the campaign.

use the 2020 map here, bring this out. covid growing right now, again, it's growing everywhere. but the top ten states, per capita, this is them. this is how they voted in 2016. all of them voted for president trump, including battleground wisconsin, a key part of the campaign today. another quick way to look at this, anderson. you come here and look at this. where are new, confirmed cases? where are they rising the fastest? these are the top ten states. go back to 2016, seven of them voted for the president of the united states. so no matter where you look, you look at the numbers, they are sober and they are getting worse. and you look at the political overlay, this is a tough race for the president because of this virus. >> for joe biden, how does the surge in the pandemic affect his strategy? >> it doesn't and that's actually the point. joe biden has been running, from the beginning, on leadership. i will be competent. we will deal with this virus. i just want to show some other

numbers. we can use the 2016 map to do it. the president keeps trying to change the subject but look in michigan, for example. again, a key, battleground state. poll out this week, 42% approve, 55% disapprove on the virus. president wants to make it about law and order, crime and taxes, the virus is in his face. another -- the trend lines for joe biden. this is trump's handling of coronavirus in battleground, wisconsin. 39% approve now. 44% did just a month ago. the numbers are going the wrong way for the president. so the biden campaign knows the numbers. they know the case count in america. they want to focus on leadership and competence and as the president tries to change the subject, the coronavirus is the headwind. >> the president does have a path to 270 electoral votes. can -- what is that path? because now, i'm seeing a lot of articles about concerns among democrats about turnout among african-americans. among hispanic voters in florida

and arizona and some other states. >> so let's go through this map. look. there's 2016 ptsd among democrats, without a doubt. number one. number two, even in places they have an advantage in early voting, that doesn't guarantee victory. you still have to finish the race. so this is the execution part of the race. this is the president's map four years ago. right? can he replicate this? let's come here and look at this. this is different, right? this looks different than the map i showed you. let me tell you why. this is where we rate the race right now, let me come back here, if you want to come through everything right now. we have joe biden states leaning to get him across the finish line. but take all the states we lean, we lean texas to the president. let's pull that back. we lean arizona, nevada, to the democrats. let's take those back. same with the blue-wall states up here. so if you think of this as the final week of the campaign, how does the president get there? well, he starts with 125. so let me get him close, anderson. i won't get him the whole way but he has to win texas, which is very competitive.

he has to win florida. he has to win north carolina. he has to win ohio. he has to win iowa. even if he did that, he is only at 231. that's where it gets interesting because, everywhere else on this map right now, everywhere else on this map, joe biden is either leading or ahead. so yes, the president has a path but he has to be perfect. >> john king, stay there. i want to bring in chief political correspondent, dana bash, also cnn political analyst, david gergen. dana, obviously, the final sprint, three days, over three days to go. both, trump and biden making darns darn dashes to battleground states. again, i keep reading these articles in florida that the turnout, the early turnout, the early voting by african-americans, by hispanics on the democratic side, there are concerns about it, as well as in other states. i don't know the details on it. >> there are concerns. there are concerns among democrats that they are underperforming among african-americans and latinos,

especially in florida. democrats i have talked to, all day today, and, frankly, all week, say, you know, just be careful. obviously, those numbers vary in different states. but to answer your fundamental question about the ground game. what does that mean? what it should mean, what it traditionally means, is a campaign has a sense of where their potential voters are. and they go get them. and they have a whole operation in order to do that. and over the past, i don't know, maybe, ten years or so, even more, the republicans since obama, the republicans picked up on the way that president obama did it in a masterful way. and they learned from it and they used technology and all of the advances in technology. so that, what they have right now is -- and i went out in western pennsylvania where the trump campaign, right now, is trying to boost its turnout even more than it did four years ago, which is why president trump won pennsylvania because the red areas went so big. and on their phones, anderson,

they have an app. and on that app, it tells them which house to go to. and when they get to that house, who to ask for. and when they ask for that person, what the script is that will best try to persuade that voter based on what they know their likes and dislikes are. i don't believe that the democrats have anything like that. but much more importantly, because of covid, democrats pulled back for a really long time. republicans never did. >> david, the president's path, narrower than biden's obviously as john was talking about. there is the path for him to win. we all know what happened to hillary clinton in 2016. she didn't spend time in rust belt states. polls ended up being wrong. what variables do you think could be in play this year? >> what variables are in play? well, i think, right up to the election, itself, the way donald trump is responding to the pandemic is i think they're giving him a lot of rope on the democratic side and he is increasingly hanging himself. you know, his comments today

that doctors are milking the system so they can rich off a pandemic is so odious. and to go after laura ingram like that. i think, increasingly, for americans, there are four days left before voters can rid us of that madman. >> john, i mean, looking at the industrial swing states, what do they tell us about the race right now? >> so let's drill in on that point because i can game you out so many 270 scenarios that get it close and, again, the three most spoken words of presidential politics, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin. this is trump's map from four years ago, right? right now, in those three right there, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, joe biden is leading and he has leads, six points, seven points, even bigger, when you count them out. so what is the state of the race in those polls? boy, do i get it and boy do democrats get it but i just want to make a point here. if you look at our poll of polls, the ten-point average for joe biden. michigan, 51-43. so you see eight points there.

51-44. seven points in pennsylvania. 52-43. nine points in wisconsin. so here is what the president needs, again, because democrats think they are doing pretty well in early voting in these states. not just a big turnout, not just a 2016 turnout. he needs a mind-blowing turnout because look where the president is. 44%, 43%. yes, biden's among 50 but the president is stuck in the low 40s and he doesn't have the third-party candidates to help him this time. getting from 43 to 47. he did that four years ago. it's not enough this time. getting from 44 to 48 or 49 might not be enough in pennsylvania. 43 to 48 might not be enough in wisconsin. so, can he do it? yes. people came out of the woodwork. they did a remarkable job. dana notes the turnout operation. they did a remarkable job four years ago. that's why democrats are nervous. a lot of it was also organic for trump.

it has to happen again on an even bigger scale. >> john, how -- you know, to dana's point about the ground game and democrats were, you know, slow to it because of covid. and trying to do it in a way that -- that's more responsible. and protect election workers. i mean, how confident should democrats be about turnout on election day? i mean, if there's -- if there's -- if there's concerns in florida about, you know, early turnout, early voting among african-americans and -- and latino voters. why should they be confident about who turns out on election day? >> you will find different concerns, in different states. sometimes, you find different concerns within the same state if it's a big and diverse state. of course, they should be concerned. number one, because of 2016 ptsd. number two, even though the trump campaign is short on cash right now, dana's right. they built a very strong digital and technological operation. although, there is is a difference here. all the campaigns now have access to big data in ways they didn't. but here is another point.

yes, joe biden is struggling some with latinos. even a place like pennsylvania could hurt him. it's not a big population but if it's close, it could hurt him. but he is also doing so much better among senior citizens than hillary clinton. so much better among white voters, especially white men, than hillary clinton. even better in the suburbs than hillary clinton. so where joe biden is behind hillary clinton, there are others where, by leaps and bounds, he is ahead. >> one thing. i know you seem really interested in the underperformance that biden is seeing in florida, particularly among african-american and latino voters. i have talked to a lot of democrats about this, today. what they argue and the question is whether they're right. is that, culturally, a lot of latino voters and african-american voters really like to vote on election day. but the fact that they're -- they're seeing, you know, kind

of lower numbers than they had hoped really means they have to bank on that, particularly if joe biden has any chance of winning florida which, you know, could be game over for donald trump if that happens. and, you know, obviously, for all of these voters, they're not monolithic. but particularly, in florida, there's, you know, about a third of latino voters are cuban americans. there is -- almost, for the most part, tend to vote republican. and there is a new influx of puerto rican voters. that is where democrats are worried they're not seeing the kind of vote for joe biden that they had hoped. >> david. >> i think we also have to keep our eye on the big story here and that is the avalanche of voters coming in. 90 million. may be up to 100 million, by election day. and i -- i don't think that's ground game, particularly, for any campaign. i think it's something that's spontaneous that's happening in the country. where just tons and tons of people are coming out because they feel that democracy is at stake, that we're in real

trouble here. and most of those people appear to favor joe biden. so, i think there is something going on here that is bigger than all of us. and we don't really, fully understand it. but it may be the basis for a big-breakthrough kind of election on the democrats' part. >> david, what are you expecting just in terms of -- i mean, if it's close, you know, in votes. and this goes to the courts. i guess, it's anybody's guess, then, what happens? >> well, there is mischief and mayhem down that trail, as you well know. i think you're right to point to that -- if biden wins but it's a tiny margin, say, 1, 2, 3%. there is no question we're going to have a flock of new court cases. we're going to be in controversies. people are going to be on the streets. there's a possibility of guns and violence. there are all sorts of nightmare scenarios you can make of this and some aligned with donald trump as president.

but let's say he got up 8, 9, 10%. then, the whole focus is going to change. if he gets up to a high percentage, anderson, first of all, he makes the controversies go away. secondly, he takes back the second. thirdly, he takes back statehouses which are really spor important for redistricting over the next ten years. fourthly, he increases capacity to govern here at home. and he will change -- joe biden perception, overseas, he will be a much stronger president if he can lift -- not just win but win big. >> yeah. david gergen. dana bash. john king. thank you so much. john's going to join us again later. coming up next, best-selling author and columnist, thomas friedman, who believes, in his words, america, itself, is on the ballot on tuesday. how much better it could be if we all just wore a mask.

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more than 90,000 new covid cases today and the president, all in, on lying about the pandemic. more than 86 million ballots cast and both candidates now campaigning as though everything is on the line and, politically, of course, it is. tom friedman, author of "thank you for being late" and others. quoting the lead paragraph from his latest piece in "the new york times," there is no escaping it, he writes. america is on the ballot on tuesday. the stability and quality of our governing institutions, our

alliances, how we treat one another, our basic commitment to scientific principles, and the minimum decency that we expect from our leaders, the whole ball of wax is on the ballot. tom friedman joins us now. tom, you say it's not just america on the ballot. you say this weekend may be the, quote, last weekend of america. can you explain what you mean by that? >> yeah. i'm sitting here in my home, outside of d.c., anderson. i'm really asking myself that question. is this the last weekend of america, as we know it? because, it won't be, certainly, if joe biden wins the kind of landslide victory that, you know, your previous commentaries were talking about. it won't be, if donald trump wins a clear victory. but if biden wins a narrow victory, it's very clear what the president is going to do. he's going to challenge every single ballot, in every single state. he is going to try to drag out the counting. delegitimize as many votes as possible, and he will create a situation, anderson, where we

will have something we have never had before. we will not be able to elect a legitimate successor president to this president. and when you break something like that, people need to appreciate, when you break something like that, the united states of america and its ability to freely and fairly elect a legitimate successor. getting it back, when you break it, boy, that will be really, really hard. i have a pit in my stomach. >> what are the -- the ripple effects of, say, that's the scenario. it's too close. you know, it's in the courts, and the courts end up deciding. you know, one candidate refuses to accept it. you know, whatever happens, what -- what do you think the ripple effects are of that, both in the country and globally? >> well, let's start with the country. you know, al gore, back in 2000, bowed to the will of the legitimate supreme court. al gore took a bullet for the

country. donald trump will put a bullet into the country, in order to stay in power. so, let's start there. i think, if he does, i think democratic voters will already feel raw and cheated about the way the last two supreme court seats were decided. and -- and installed in the court. already, raw. if they, now, see trump actually try to steal the election by contesting legitimately-cast ballots, i think people will be in the streets in very, very large numbers. and eventually, there'll be violence. and once it starts, you know, there's -- there's no predicting where it can go. when you break something, like this incredible system we have been bequeathed by, you know, our forefathers. getting the toothpaste back in the -- in the tube will be really, really difficult. and that's why i pray -- there's only -- only one body that can save us now, anderson. that's the american people. you know, don't -- don't count

on -- on our -- our secretary of state or attorney general or -- or any of these senators. forget it. it's over. it's too late. the only thing that can save us is if the american people go out, and the overwhelming majority of them vote for joe biden. and if i have one wish. anderson, if you were my genie and you said, tom, you get one wish. what would it be that would be the greatest thing for america? the greatest thing for america would be is if joe biden won texas, because if joe biden won texas, it would break this fever in the republican party. it would blow that party up. the same moderate republicans, i think, would reemerge. i could see them, biden actually forming a national unity government that would include everyone from aoc, you know, on one side, to a few republicans on the other. we might actually get back to a national-unity government. and the trumpers, donald jr. and

donald sr. and the whole clown car can go off on fox and do their thing, start their own network, whatever they want. but my real hope is if, somehow, texas, i'll even take georgia, i'll even take georgia, anderson, because that would blow up this version of the republican party. and give us what we desperately need, which is a truly conservative party, not trump because we won't have a healthy liberal party if we don't have a healthy conservative party. >> if former vice president biden wins texas, you are saying you think that could be a watershed moment for the country. >> that's what i'm saying. >> yeah. >> if they lose texas, that will be such a shock to the system that, it will be the same kind of shock that -- that -- that the two wins that obama gave th them, force of reckoning. you remember, they did this whole study. why did we lose? we need to reach out to hispanics and minorities and women. and then, trump just derailed that whole rethink of

republicanism. and turned into the cult of trump which has been so unhealthy for the conservative movement, for conservative ideas. and so unhealthy for the country because we need a healthy, c conservative party. if we have a healthy conservative party, that actually collaborate with a healthy, liberal party, we can get back to being the country we want to be and need to be. >> you write in the latest op-ed in "the new york times," this is a quote, if we re-elect him knowing what destroying, divisive, corrupt liar he is, the world will not treat the last four years as an aberration. they will treat them as an affirmation that we have changed. what about the idea america is bigger than any, one leader? >> well, you know, it really is this idea that every democracy or many democracies, in their histories, anderson, have taken

a flyer on a populist, fast-talking con man. you know, i come from minnesota, we had a governor we took a flyer like that on. it happens. you can do it once. but when you do it twice, it's no longer about who he is. it's about who you are. the whole world will look differently at us if we were to reaffirm and re-elect this man. because then, the world will actually start looking at us, really, like it looks at russia and china. just another transactional country. they will look at us as a country that decided to change the statue of liberty from give your tired, your poor, you know, those seeking to be free, yearning to be free, to get the hell off my lawn. that's what the statue of liberty will be saying. get the hell off my lawn. and that will affect the whole world because, you know, anderson. the world likes to make fun of america. you know, they love to make fun of our naivety. we think every problem has a solution.

but deep down, they envy our naivety. they envy our optimism because these people often come from very cynical and corrupt countries. they always know out there in the world, there is this place called america, somewhere over the rainbow, where they do have free and fair and honest elections. where you can get things done in the court, without corruption. knowing that, that place is out there, and that will actually speak up for human rights and around the world, that is so important for the world. and if we go dark, the whole world goes dark. >> the -- i mean, have you seen the country on edge, like it has been in these -- i mean, in these final days? >> never, in my life. i just know how i feel. how i feel with my family and my friends. i have a hard time watching the news. i -- i just -- i -- because i think, as i said in that column, anderson, america's on the ballot. don't kid yourself, folks. everything's on the ballot. and if there is one thing we have learned about trump, he

does not stop at red lights. there is no bottom there. this is a man, also, i think we -- we should come to terms with the fact, people are hoping that his followers will see the light or whatever. he told us, early on -- he -- he told us, early on, that he can shoot someone on fifth avenue and his followers will stay with him. and in those rallies you were showing before, you know, i came on, you can still -- you can still see that. the important thing, also, about defeating trump, anderson, is this. the good lord. he did one good thing for us. he only made one of him. thank god, he only made one of him. and if he is defeated, i don't think you will see someone like that emerge very quickly again. thank god. >> tom friedman. thank you very much. appreciate it. >> pleasure. >> want to show everyone this. joe biden in milwaukee right now. part of an intense sweep through the midwest. these final days of the campaign. early voting numbers key right now for both candidates, obviously. just ahead, we are going to take

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past several nights, we have been tracking one of the biggest stories this election. the explosion in early-voting numbers. nearly 87 million have already voted across the nation. texas leading the way, its early voting wrapped up today. but not before logging more votes during the early-voting period than the entire general election four years ago. still, of course, more votes expected on election day. cnn's john king.

john, the early numbers, really astonishing. passing the entire vote count for 2016. what does that tell us? >> number one, what it does tell us is that texas is in play this year and people are excited to vote. what it doesn't tell us is the democrats can win. it doesn't tell us they can win but just imagine this scenario, anderson. this is the map from 2016. right? this is the map from 2016. we focused a lot, we talked early in the program, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin. donald trump cracked it. can joe biden rebuild it? that is the challenge. but imagine this. just imagine if the democrats actually flip texas. look what would happen. if nothing else changed, if nothing else changed from the last election in 2016, if all the clinton states stayed whether you. we expe blue. we expect that's a possibility. but if all the clinton states voted, the democrats could win the presidency without wisconsin, without michigan, without pennsylvania, without

north carolina, without florida, and so on and so forth. that is why it is such an enticing prize. can they get it this year? unclear. we will know in four days. but if they get it, add to california, add it to new york, we would rewrite the map of american politics if the democrats can get texas. that's why they're trying. >> texas hasn't gone blue since jimmy carter, '76? are you surprised the state is so competitive this year? >> yes and no. let me pull out texas, again. i said yes and no. yes, i am surprised because texas is changing, demographically. it is becoming more latino. but one of the frustrations for democrats is, going back to george w. bush, republicans have a pretty good relationship with latinos here. watch, president trump will probably do better with latinos in texas than he does nationally

because of that longstanding relationship between texas and latinos. in 2018, democrats picked up a house seat here near dallas. near houston. there are at least two house seats the democrats can pick up. so the democrats think the suburban revolt against the president is accelerating the transition in texas. can they get there? we can't be sure, anderson, we have to watch. but you mention the early voting. in dallas county, it is setting records. in the county next to it, it is setting records. the biggest place to watch, one of the fastest-growing places in america, harris county. it is off the charts. if democrats can lack up latino numbers, suburban numbers, they have a chance to redo the map. >> stuart stevens, political consultant and writer who's worked on five republican campaigns. and paul begala. so, paul, as a texan,

veteran-campaign operative, do you believe he has a shot in texas? >> yes. yes, and i say that as someone who has watched the democrats lose. they have lost, in the last 25 years, there have been 180 statewide elections in texas. the democrats have lost, wait, let me think, 180. >> and also, i just feel like, last couple years, i keep hear -- beto o'rourke was going to win texas. hillary clinton. i mean, it never seems to amount to much. >> well, beto got very close. right? hillary was closer in texas than she was in iowa, a state obama carried. here's why. it's what king is saying, in part. he's wrong about one thing. he is wrong about most things but this, particularly. i love john. we go way back. hispanics in texas are trending much more democratic than they were in the bush era. this is not george w. bush's texas. and -- and, in fact, kamala harris, today, went to -- she went to ft. worth, went to houston, very smart. most importantly, she went to mcallen, in the real grand

valley. that's what i am worried about. half the hispanics in texas live south of san antonio, from east texas to el paso. south texas is vitally important. i have been campaigning to get barack obama down there. he could turn them out. he could flip the state. it's the changing demographics but, also, these changing attitudes of white people. the suburbanites are flocking to joe biden and mj hagar. war hero, total bad-ass texas woman. yes. i say this like someone who's been beat there like a bad piece of meat. texas can very easily go blue. >> stuart, trying to block mail-in votes from being counted. suing to strike down mail-in ballot extensions. what does it tell you the trump campaign wants fewer people voting in this election? >> look. there is nothing new about this. this is just classic, sort of,

jim crow politics, updated for a modern era. it's the same -- same principle that, if everybody votes, we're going to lose. and just what does that say about a party? it's terrible. trump world exists in an america that no longer exists. therefore, they have to try to reconstruct a world, in which they -- it's almost like their own, alternative reality. they have to try to increase their number of white votes by decreasing the number of nonwhite votes. one of the key reasons that donald trump won in 2016 was nonwhite votes declined for the first time in 20 years. i sure don't think that's going to happen, this time. i think we're going to have off-the-charts nonwhite votes. >> although, some democrats. stuart, some democrats concerned about african-american, early voting. you know, the -- the -- the low numbers or not as high as expected among african-americans and some hispanics in florida and couple other states.

arizona and elsewhere. >> i think, when the day is done, you're going to see a lot higher than you did in 2016. you may not see in 2012, which is the first time the nonwhite vote was a higher percentage than white vote of their turnout. but i think you are definitely going to see it increased. and, you know, you are seeing, as you say, with these white votes that the trump campaign is losing. that donald trump is losing. i think it's going to really hurt these down-ticket senate candidates. they are used to getting those votes. i think they're -- a lot of these senators are going to fall because of that. >> paul, campaigns all over the midwest today. if -- if you were running the biden campaign, where would you be deploying your resources? i know you said you want obama to go to texas. >> yeah. i actually think where they are sending joe and kamala is exactly right. you can't take your eyes off the prize. if you rebuild that blue wall, as much as i want texas. by the way, i think georgia's going to flip more likely than

even texas. but as much as i want those states, you got to repair the damage done in michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania. the democrats have been working very, very hard there. and i was struck at the closing arguments. joe's closing argument is about healing. both, literal with covid, as we lost now 292,000 americans. and metaphorical. i think that's where the country is. the president, though, his message has changed. i am curious what stuart things about this. in 2016, at the end especially, it was about your grievances on trade, on immigration. things that make you angry. now, it's just his grievances. he's whining about the media. even whining about the weather. why do i have to be in erie? even when he talks about covid and the collapse, it's about how it affects him. so, you know, he's lost the thread of even that which worked for him in 2016. >> stuart, what do you think of that? >> well, i think paul's right. he's a grievance candidate.

the problem he has now is that the greatest grievance america has is covid and he denies covid. he is out there, now attacking doctors saying there's some plot to kill people because they'll make more money. i mean, i just don't really think attacking doctors is a great, closing message for a presidential race in the middle of a pandemic. it's just completely atonal. and i think the message of joe biden is one that is just -- it's very calming. it's very consistent with who he is and it just seems real. he is a man who can speak to healing and grief, in a unique way. >> appreciate it. thanks. >> just ahead. the biggest issue of the campaign. the coronavirus, as -- as we were just talking about. the president trying to downplay it but a new estimate shows just how much more deadly it may become this winter. far from rounding the turn. that discussion, when we return. or what's trending. get real-time insights in your customized view of the market. it's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions.

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forced to wait in jail nearly a year. voting yes on prop 25 ends this failed system, replacing it with one based on public safety. because the size of your wallet shouldn't determine whether or not you're in jail. vote yes on prop 25 to end money bail. quick note about the last segment. one of our guests said that 290,000 americans died of covid. the actual number is lower. it's 229,000. earlier we showed you president trump at a rally today, insinuating the doctors are inflating the number of those dead from the coronavirus, again, they're not. it's obscene that the president is suggesting this. it seems odd to be attacking the very people who are defending us and trying to save lives and, in fact, maybe save the president's life from this virus. according to a newly released model, the number of dead could

be 399,000 by february 1st. that's an increase of 15,000 since just the last estimate. joining me now is dr. chris murray, director of the institute for health metrics and evaluation at the university of washington, whose team published the model. also our chief medical correspondent dr. sanjay gupta. dr. murray, the latest forecast, it's possibly the most dire we've ever seen. it predicts by the middle of january, 2,250 americans will be dying every day from coronavirus. that's more than double the current fatality rate. can you just explain how you got that? >> sure, anderson. it's that, you know, we're entering the fall/winter surge that's really largely being driven by covid being seasonal, so we expect increased transmission. look what's happening in europe. they're going into major lockdown because they're three, four weeks ahead of us. and then the other factor is that our governments are not responding to the uptick in cases, hospitalizations, and now

deaths. and put the two together, and we have a very grim winter ahead. >> i mean what a sentence. our governments are not responding to the uptick in cases. sanjay, i know you have a question for dr. murray, and i just want to note we've, you know, crossed 90,000 cases in a single day for the first time. >> yeah. dr. murray, you just talked europe, and they do seem to be a bit of a precursor for us as we are watching them in the spring. but are there lessons, then, that we should be taking from the eu, and is there some indication that the united states is going to behave any differently, or is this sort of pre-ordained at this point? >> well, i think what we're seeing in europe, it's pretty interesting. you know, there's a lot of discussion across the different countries in europe, different strategies. but suddenly i think as you've had, you know, basically five or six weeks of exponential growth, people are hitting the panic button there and going back into very strict lockdown in some

countries. the big question is can we use things like, you know, universal mask use, you know, avoiding large gatherings, and having people who have the ability to work from home, you know, stay working from home -- can we use that to put off the time when we're going to be forced into much more strict lockdown? i think that's the challenge for us as a nation. >> you think it's inevitable that there will be stricter lockdowns? >> you know, i think if you look at our scenario around, you know, 95% of people wearing masks, a lot of states can put off mandates, you know, right well into the winter, maybe throughout the whole winter. if you look at what happened in victoria state in australia, they were able to get mask use up to, you know, incredibly high levels in a very short period of time. so if we can do that, we can defer lockdowns for many months. >> so you're saying that if

states -- if they don't react to the rising cases by enacting stricter mandates, then you project 399,000 total coronavirus deaths by february 1st, and that could rise to 514,000 deaths if -- is that right? >> yeah -- is trying to build into the model what we think states will do. we think when things get really bad, if you wait till it's really late and then put back in social distancing measures, that's where we get our 399,000 figure. and if you do nothing, you get a much worse winter ahead. that's the 500,000-plus figure. but i think we can use things like masks to bring -- to not only save lives, but also put off having to put these much stricter controls in place. our numbers this week, we see that 18 states are going to have

real stress on their icus in the months of december and january, maybe actually overcapacity. and that's a real -- a real prospect on the horizon. >> dr. murray, i mean we talk about the overall number of people who are infected, but the hospitalization numbers as you're mentioning, you think that that's probably the truest sort of measure of what's actually happening in the country? i mean i wonder if you agree with that. but also when you talk about this stress, do you have the data to be able to really predict how much stress they're going to be on these hospital systems? i've been trying to get this data myself. different counties, different states. sometimes it's hard to obtain. do you have the data, and do you think that's going to be the truest sort of measure of what's happening here? >> so hospitalizations are definitely our best measure. they're a leading indicator in front of deaths, and they don't suffer from the sensitivity of the case numbers to who you test and how much you test.

>> right. >> so we really put a lot of faith in the hospitalization numbers. we don't have all the data, and we know, and it's been in the media this week that the government has really good data on daily hospitalizations by hospital, by age, by sex, you know, by race, ethnicity. they're not releasing it to the public. it would be a really big help for us to understand where we are in the epidemic and who's going to have, you know, hospitals that are severely under stress going forward. >> why aren't they releasing that data? i'm just curious because i've been trying to get it as well. >> you know, i -- i wrote an editorial in "the new york times" about this, and quite honestly i don't know. it's so much in the public's interest to have that data out for the whole of the public, the media, the research community to help guide us through the course of the epidemic. the only thing i can imagine is that there are things in the data that they don't really, you

know, want the public discussing. >> wow. >> wow. >> geez. that's where we are. that's the reality now. sanjay, thank you. dr. murray, as always, thank you so much for your work. we appreciate your time. there's more breaking news next. a day after walmart announces it was pulling guns and ammunition from the sales aisles over concerns of social unrest, the company changes course. details when we continue.

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