the final days. >> i'm running as a proud democrat, but i'll govern as a president to unite and heal. >> we have made america powerful again. we have made america wealthy again, and we will make america

great again. >> plus a record smashing co-vid surge. >> our nation is plunging into a terrible darkness from covid-19. >> every indicator, metric that we have is trending in the wrong direction. >> and the biggest election choice. >> donald trump has waved the white flag, abandoned our families and surrendered to the virus. >> biden and the democrat socialists will delay the vaccine, prolong the pandemic, shut down our country. >> welcome to inside politics. to our viewers in the united states and around the world, thank you for sharing this important sunday. the presidential campaign is in the final hours and being disrupted by the coronavirus to the very end. president trump and joe biden are making closing appeals to a country adding new co-vid infections at a stunning record pace. more than 81,000 new infections reported saturday, and you see the trend line. it points to more trouble and

more pain ahead. so does all this red and orange. 37 of the 50 states now adding new cases at a higher rate than last week. only four states trending down. dr. anthony fauci in a new interview says bluntly of the united states, you could not possibly be positioned more poorly. the republican incumbent all but ignores the dangerous spike. the democratic challenger says it is a crisis that demands new leadership. >> it's a choice between a biden lockdown or a safe vaccine that ends the pandemic and it's ending anyway. >> imagine where we'd be if we had a president who wore a mask instead of mocking it. i can tell you this. we wouldn't have 9 million confirmed cases of co-vid in this nation. over 230,000 deaths. >> coronavirus safety concerns

now. nearly 92 million americans have returned their ballots. that's more than two-thirds of the total votes cast in 2016. and will ballot voters already dropped in the mail will be delivered to be counted. the agency blaming slowdowns on coronavirus-related man power problems. the trump campaign is preparing aggressive ballot challenges first at local election boards and then in the courts. the president is more than transparent about his strategy. if he is leading in the election day count, he will move to shut things down, even if there are millions of legally cast ballots still to be counted. >> you're allowed to have time limits beyond november third. so what does this mean? the whole world and our nation is going to be waiting and waiting and waiting to hear who won and very bad things can happen with ballots during that period of november 3rd to

whatever date they gave them. many, many days. >> we count ballots after elections all the time. but the court points would be moot if it's not close. biden has the opportunity for a statement map changing win. that's not to say there's no path to reelection for the president, but he needs overwhelming election day turnout in a half dozen states. let's look at the map. brand new cnn polling in some of the key battle grounds, this one, look at arizona. joe biden with a four-point lead in arizona. that's close if joe biden wins this state, that might be a game over state by itself. this one is close. joe biden with the lead. he'd love to turn that state. kpet i have to the end. the east, the new cnn polling, one of the states that could decide it all and we expect to count votes quickly, north carolina. joe biden with a six-point lead in north carolina f. if that holds up, that would block the

president. he needs north carolina's electoral votes to win reelection. a couple others. michigan, remember, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin made trump president. he cracked the blue wall. a 12 -point lead for joe biden. a steady, stable lead we've seen for joe biden in michigan. this one 12 points heading into the final weekend. that would be a statement the democrats again in the industrial states back. and wisconsin, part of the president's big win four years ago. an eight-point lead for biden. remember the history. 47.8 to 347. now, that is not to say the president can't come back. let's switch maps and show you something. that advantage in those states, right, let's start with the president's map. this is the president's map in 20 16. if joe biden can win arizona like you saw in the poll, win north carolina like you saw in the poll, win michigan and win wisconsin, that's enough right

there. if he holds the clinton states and flips those four, he's the next president of the united states, and he can do it without pennsylvania. without florida. without texas. the president has a path, but he has to turn people out overwhelmingly. one more look at the battle grounds. if you look at the state of play right now, ten battle ground states on the graphic. what do you see? only two of them does the president have leads in new polls. florida by a little bit. iowa one poll last night shows him up by 7. but look at the blue for biden. biden has more menu opportunities to get there. the president, draw to an inside straight flush, maybe. both candidates hitting the battle grounds trying to get to 270. >> three days to put an end to a presidency that's divided this nation. three days. we can put an end to a presidency that's failed to protect this nation. three days we can put an end to

a president that's fanned the flames of hate. >> biden is a washington culture who decimated your steel mills, ie naylated our coal jobs. >> with us this sunday to kick off the conversation, share the reporting and insights, kaitlyn cot collins and jonathan. the president is running against the coronavirus and heading into the weekend, dr. anthony fauci giving the most blunt interview yet that he knows what he's doing. this is from the washington post. dr. fauci said former vice president joe biden's campaign is taking it seriously from a public health perspective. trump, dr. fauci said, is looking at it from a different perspective. he said that perspective was the economy and reopening the country. dr. fauci saying right there joe biden has a public health plan about the coronavirus and the president does not.

two days before america votes. >> it's a scathing indictment of the way the president handled this. it's been clear dr. fauci and the president have not agreed about the approach for the pandemic for several months. to see it put in those terms as voters are casting ballots and making this decision and we know the pandemic is hanging over all of this. that is not what president trump wanted. for several months he talked about how november he thought things would be better. he thought we would be rounding the corner. and of course, we are seeing in the numbers that we are not even close. we're going in the other direction. seeing some of the highest case numbers we've seen. and i've been talking to trump campaign officials and allies. they're not happy. they know the president does not have a good credibility meter when it comes to the pandemic and they know if that is the top of mind for voters, it does not bode well for them tuesday. >> jonathan, look at the numbers and it's dizzying. one poll has trump up in

florida. one has biden up in florida. in iowa a recent poll shows it close. now the iowa poll seems to show trump momentum. we've going to count this out tuesday. it's indisputable that biden has more options to get to 270 electoral votes. many many more. you're right with your colleague in the paper today in wisconsin, voters who did not cast a ballot in 2016 favor mr. biden by 19 points. they have a similarly lopsided preference in florida where he leads by 17 points. the advantage with people who sat out 2016 is 12 points in pennsylvania, seven points in arizona. the trump campaign tells us they've registered people who didn't play in 2016. they're going to overwhelm us on election day, but you say so far the evidence points the other way. >> i think it points the new voters are showing up to support joe biden more than they are donald trump. and we see it in our new survey today as you pointed out.

i saw it last week in texas. i was in three different parts of that state, and talked to over 50 voters at early polling sites. the new voters are overwhelmingly young and not white. they're not showing up for donald trump. i think it's pretty clear that the people who are coming into the political system are doing so out of opposition to this president more than to rej stir their support. i think it's important to keep in mind for listeners, the owness here is on president trump to hold his map. and we talk a lot about florida and georgia and north carolina and arizona and now yes, even texas for good reason. biden could win in a route if he picks up the sun belt states. but biden only needs to win pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin as long as he holds the rest of the hillary clinton states to win the presidency, and every one of those states, those three states in the industrial midwest, joe biden is leading and has been leading for months.

president trump has not led in a poll in any of those states for months. >> right. you see four rallies by the president yesterday in the same state y. the commonwealth of pennsylvania. that tells you everything you need to know. he's trying to find people, bring them out of the wood work and more. i want you to listen to the president yesterday. this is butler, pennsylvania. the president trying to make a closing message. he knows the coronavirus is spiking everywhere, including in the commonwealth of pennsylvania. instead of trying to address i'm your president, here's what i'll do differently, he talks about joe biden. >> biden will delay the vaccine and impose a crushing lockdown on all americans. there will be no school, no graduations, no weddings, no thanksgiving, no easter, no christmas. no fourth of july, no nothing. >> that is a fact check in many regards fails. joe biden has said he'd be happy to have a vaccine as soon as possible and does not support a national lockdown.

shutting down places 23 you have a spike. the bigger point is we've watched around the world, watched governors and mayors, boris johnsing making the painful decision to put his country into lockdown. the president has not take an break from the campaign trail as the cases spiked to address the american people as their president, whether it's to defend or change his plan or tell them about what lies ahead. instead he does rallies where he says things about the virus that aren't true. >> and you're seeing the candidates go to states where cases are surging and you see the difference in how they address it. joe biden talks about the numbers going up. the president doesn't. he instead frames it as if the numbers are going down. but this is the risk that the trump campaign is taking. because they are betting there are people like the ones in that crowd who are happy to come out and not social distance. a lot of them not wearing a mask and listen to the president instill fear in people that there is going to be another shutdown that you will see the restrictions that we saw in the united states sel months ago in march and what not.

the risk in that is there are also a lot of people who don't want to go to a rally like that, who have not been around a crowd like that in a year now, and so the risk is that they are going to alienate those voters by holding the rallies but pushing the message to where voters will see biden has a safe alternative. that's their fear. you're right. the president is taking this in a different approach than summon like johnson who says i don't want to lock the country down for another month, but that's where we're going. we're seeing cases go up, and the president is taking the opposite approach by holding rallies and saying businesses and states need to be opened back up fully to where they were at prepandemic levels? >> jonathan, what do you look for in the final two days? they're sending barack obama to south florida. democrats are worried about latino and african american voter turnout. as democrats try, they think the early voting helped them, but they have to execute to the end, and they have older voters breaking for biden who might be afraid to vote because of

coronavirus. african americans, the disproportionate co-vid cases nature what are you looking for in terms of execution? >> we mentioned pennsylvania. that state more than the other competitive states has most of their votes taking place on election day itself. yes, some democrats have done mail-in ballots. a lot of people are voting on election day, and in the black community in this country, there's a lot of voter who is don't want to vote by mail. a lot of african americans prefer to vote on election day. that's why you see joe biden, barack obama, kamala harris sweeping into places like florida in the final hours of this election to drive black turnout on election day itself? >> we'll see if it works out. the final days of execution. this is about execution, identifying voters using your data, turning them out. we appreciate your insights there. up next, deep inside the numbers of the early vote and the president promises a massive i

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no matter who wins the 20 20 presidential election it will go down as history because of intensity, early voting off the charts. more than 91 million votes already cast. it's sunday, sunday, monday, tuesday, 91.6 million votes already cast across the united states of america. let's look at the key battle ground states versus 2016. texas surpassed the 20 16 turnout in early voting. 109%. georgia is pretty close. 95%. north carolina 95%. florida 89 %.

nationally 67% increase in early voting compared to 2016. let's break it down by party. in some states democrats think this is helping. can they finish and keep people coming up? pennsylvania 67% of the ballots returned. let's be clear, we don't know all the democrats voted biden or all the republicans voted trump. we know from polling 90% in each case for the most part. florida, 40% democrats returning ballots. 38% republicans. 21%, people unaffiliated, no party. in north carolina close. 38 to 32. slight democratic advantage. take whatever they get in a state that competitive. in arizona 38 to 36. pretty close there. that's one of the trends you see. if you look at how this played out, ten days ago, democrats had an 11-point advantage in ballots returned by partisans in florida. now two. in north carolina it was 14 ten days ago. now it's down to 6. in arizona it was nine. now it's down to two. iowa 22.

down to 16. still a big advantage. pennsylvania off the charts. 51-45. this one is worth watching. the president was there four times yesterday. he knows the democrats are way ahead and he needs to get people out of the wood work and turn them out. if the president gets that massive turnout, it might put more states in play and make things surprising. in the final days joe biden telling democrats this is great. keep voting. the president sounds like if he doesn't like the results, he might challenge them. >> no matter how many threats he makes, america will be heard. one america is heard, i believe the message is going to be loud and clear. it's time for donald trump to pack his bags and go home. >> the only way we can lose this state and the numbers are in. you see what's going on. right? somebody is going to play games and they get an extension. what's the ex-tension all about? >> joining us now, abbie phillip and lisa lair of the new york

times. abbie, the numbers are off the charts. and democrats think in many places it's to their advantage. listen here. senator kamala harris in florida yesterday, barack obama going back to florida. they do even as confident as they are, they see pockets of worry including african americans and latino turnout. listen. >> i believe that folks are turning out because, again, they know what's at stake. what i'm hearing in particular when we talk about african american, caribbean voters in florida, they want to know they have a president who understands the commonality between all of us. they want a president who speaks to our better angels as opposed to hate and division. >> it is that doing your job, or is that a sign of nervousness, jitters that the numbers aren't quite right? >> it's definitely a sign that they are heeding the concerns of people on the ground and activists across the country who say the turnout they need to see

isn't quite there yet. and i spent the weekend talking to democratic strategists about this issue, and many of them are saying look, we still have some time. there was a delay because of co-vid in getting on the ground and getting to these people, but now this is where the rubber meets the road, and even small things like last weekend's souls to the polls events were rained out. this weekend they were hoping to get those folks out there, but it is the most critical thing for democrats to have that strong turnout in south florida and a lot of it is driven by black voters and caribbean voters, haitian voters, latino voters. all of whom need to be connected with by activists, and the coronavirus definitely set democrats back. it's a worry. because florida as you know, is a lynch pin state for donald trump, but if joe biden wants to deny trump an early opportunity to stretch this out, winning florida would certainly do that.

>> that would be it. that would be game over. again, we may have a confusing election night because of the mail-in ballots and the delays counting them. florida says it will be done on election night. lisa, we go through every piece of every coalition, if you will. we're talking there that if joe biden has a problem, let's say african american men, more of them voting for trump, latino men, more might vote for trump. the flip side is we're winning among seniors. making end roads among white men. the most important part for joe biden is the gender gap. whether it's 93% of the national electorate. 53%. you spent a lot of time on this issue. we had soccer moms i remember back in the 1992 campaign. you write about panera moms. you have a podcast talking about how for joe biden, if he turns out suburban women anywhere near what they say in the polls, he could well be the next president. listen. >> i had so many regrets in 2016

because i took for granted that i just thought hillary would win. i thought it would be no question, and so i've said since then, like, i'm not -- i'm determined not to have regrets on november 4th this time. and i'm really just pushing myself so much to do everything i can. >> that is a national dynamic, number one. number two, if it happens in a place like ohio, again, that would be a game over. >> oh, exactly. ohio is a state that many democrats felt was lost, and some still feel that it's not a place where they'll play strongly, but that's kind of why this transition among suburban communities is interesting. and as you point out, it's a national phenomenon. i'm in orlando heading up to seminal county, another suburban county where you're seeing these kinds of changes happen. historically republican places trending in joe biden's favor. that is overwhelmingly because

of suburban women. what we know about the biden coalition as compared to, say, the obama coalition is it's whiter, it's more suburban. it's more educated. obviously voters of color are still a crucial part of joe biden's path to victory as abbie talked about and that's part of why you see obama coming back to miami dade to make sure the voters turn out. but biden has this other route which runs through america's suburbs, the panera moms. >> i love it. one of the things we need to prepare our viewers for. we may not have a winner on election night. states might need to count mail-in ballots and that process some states could go into wednesday, thursday and friday. we expect a lot of challenges. put some of them up. a court hearing tomorrow in texas on disqualifying 100,000 votes. each county has been limited to

one ballot drop box. no extension of deadline in minnesota and wisconsin because of court choices there about mail-in ballots. in pennsylvania you better check the rules. mail your ballots right. i'll stop there. there's a lot of efforts the democrats say are republicans trying to suppress votes any way, but especially in the pandemic when you should be making it easier. >> yeah. there's no question about it. i mean, this is just really i would say the tip of the iceberg what you laid out. all of these battles coming up to election day to restrict how far after election day ballots to be accepted. where you can drop the ballots off. how easy it is to match your signature on your ballot to what is on file. but i think what would be very concerning particularly to democrats is what happens after election day and will there be efforts led by president trump based on his rhetoric to stop ballots that are already in, have already been cast from being counted. that is what is keeping democrats up at night, and the

president is signaling that's a direction he wants things to go. >> well, it's going to take time and there's nothing wrong with that. that's how it works. abbie and lisa, grateful for the reporting. four rallies in pennsylvania saturday. michigan, wisconsin next. the president trying to recreate his 2016 map. joe biden and the democrats, yes, they see a chance to rebuild their blue wall. with a little help from a two-time presidential winner. >> they're not white values or black values or latino or asian or native american -- they're american values. and we have to reclaim them. but to do that, we're going to have to turn out like never before. to reclaim what's best in this country, we can leave no doubt. we cannot afford to be complace complacent. not this time. not in this election. listerine® cleans virtually 100%. helping to prevent gum disease and bad breath.

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if you pay attention to the polls, joe biden has a chance to remake this map. this is the trump map from 2016. this is why donald trump is president. you see polls, joe biden competitive in florida, leading in arizona maybe in play in texas. you think democrats have an opportunity to rewrite the map. they do, but this is also true. donald trump is president because of pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin. joe biden could be president if he holds the clinton states on this map and wins pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin. there are grander plans maybe. maybe the voters will decide otherwise. if you're in the biden campaign, the bread and butter is to get those back. that's the question in the final

days. you see the polls. narrowing in pennsylvania. healthy lead in pennsylvania. can joe biden turn out voters. african americans in philadelphia, and the suburbs. the red, donald trump won those counties hugely. that's a challenge there. and you move over to michigan. can joe biden take back mccomb county north of detroit up here. the awe thouuto industry, and c turn out african americans in higher numbers than hillary clinton did here. wayne county in detroit. that's the challenge in the final days of the campaign. watch the schedule. both candidates know pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan will decide the election. >> joe biden will shut down your economy. wipe out your factories and shut down your state. ship your jobs to china, raise your taxes. a vote for biden and harris is a vote to ban fracking, ban

mining. >> if they get their way, 100 million americans will lose protections for preexisting conditions including more than 4 million michigan citizens. donald trump thinks health care is a privilege. barack and i think it's a right. >> joining us from detroit, the lieutenant governor of the commonwealth of pennsylvania. thank you both on this important sunday. i know you're busy and i'm grateful for your time. lieutenant governor, i want to start with you. the president was there for four rallies yesterday. he had several rallies the other day as well. the polls show a narrow but joe biden lead. a tweet, you said i don't care what polls say, trump is popular here. you need to bank your ballot. get them in. i want to show you the voting trends. this is a fox news poll. 61% of biden voters say they're

going to vote early. only 30 % of trump voters say that. here's the question. this is the defining question in your state and others. if trump -- do you think trump is capable of getting this overwhelming election day turnout to overcome the early voting? >> well, here's what i suspect the trump campaign strategy is, is going to create a lot of electoral chaos and noise around mail-in ballots and uncertainty and they've been successful to some extent with that, to create that kind of misinformation and lie about the conditions on the ground. the other one, and i find it difficult to capture in polling, an unprecedented blitz to barn storm the state. by my count there's between 15 and 20 events with trump and/or his family and surrogates in pennsylvania within the last seven days. and i'm not sure how polling can really capture that. what they're doing is activating the small county base across pennsylvania, and that is their

pet if they have it. they're playing it well in regards to that. i suspect the two-prong approach is what they're banking on in pennsylvania. >> it's fascinating and we'll watch it. and governor, if you look at the polling, again, this is the question for democrats. do you believe what your eyes are seeing compared to 2016 in in 2016 trump carried men by 12 points. white, no college degree, the president leading but by half of 2016. do you believe the numbers? is michigan going to flip back to blue or are there things in the final hours that you're calling the biden campaign saying you must do this? >> what i'm seeing on the ground is unprecedented energy from the groups you described but also black men in detroit showing up

in high numbers in the early vote so we can run up the score in places like detroit and flint. that's why president obama was here with the vice president yesterday in both of those cities to make sure to juice the turnout. that will add to the paths to victory in michigan. joe biden polls strong here. he's been a strong allie for the people of michigan for years. we trust him as being a person in power and a partner. i believe we're doing the organizing work and going to close strong. we were always going to close strung. donald trump comes in all the time. we want to make sure this is the last time he -- >> lieutenant governor, looking through the demographics of your state, and it's a complicated place. joe biden needs overwhelming turnout in the suburbs and trump in smaller rural counties. and then we get to the math. if you look at 2016 versus now, president trump leading with men. joe biden's gender gap, hillary clinton plus 13.

joe biden plus 21. white no college degree, the president's lead cut almost in half among them, and older voters, if they vote, that's the question in those co-vid times, that could be a decisive swing vote for joe biden, but yet, you have a sense of jitters, i can sense it. what does joe biden need to do in the final 48 hours? >> it's not jitters. it's just there's so much unknown in 2020 and right now. like i said, donald trump is doing things that have never been done in pennsylvania politics in terms of the barn storming across small county pennsylvania. it's hard to predict with certainty how that's going to activate not only his base of voters from 2016 but also those that sat it out. there are any number of those too. i'm not saying donald trump is going to win pennsylvania. i am saying he's doing everything that he can to maximize his chances and the other known aspect of that is the chaos factor. we have 6 00 to 7 00,000 votes

out still, mail-in ballots and there's only three paths for the ballots. drop box them, deliver them in person, two, go in the trash and they don't vote, or three, jam up election day lines in urban areas where lines are already going to be long, too. and that's going to create additional chaos. you'll have to essentially trade one ballot for another. i'm adamantly opposed to that. there's the unknown factor in pennsylvania. joe biden is going to smaller counties. my campaign manager for my first race as managing pennsylvania for joe biden. i said get to the small counties. and they've done that. and joe biden is well positioned in pennsylvania. but donald trump is playing in my opinion, the two prong strategy to barn storm heavily unprecedentedly and also to have chaos and uncertainty with the voting and mail-in ballot process here in the state. >> you're walking through any tuesday night there. as we go, that's my tuesday night watching votes and

checking in on the key counties without a doubt. i want to ask you about this in closing. listen to the president of the united states. something else the president is doing, questioning the integrity of our election. it happens you count ballots after the election. that's the way it works. this year there will be more ballots because of the early voting. listen to the president. if we're counting votes wednesday and thursday, he says that's terrible. >> you're allowed to have time limits beyond november third. so what does this mean? the whole world and our nation is going to be waiting and waiting and waiting to hear who won? and very bad things can happen with ballots during this period of november third to whatever date they gave them. many, many days. >> lieutenant governor, to you first. i've talked to your secretary of state several times. she says it may take a few days. both parties get to watch the process. if they see anything, they can raise their hand. that's the way it works.

how long do you think it's going to take and assure people you're a democrat, but assure people out there this will be done properly. >> it's important that we get the results right for the 25% of ballots that have been returned in detroit that are from voter who is didn't vote in 2016, they want their votes counted properly. and donald trump is dangerously disconnected from reality. and that's why people don't trust him anymore. and i think that people do trust their local election administrators and secretaries of state who have been doing important work to make sure we have processes to count the ballots accurately. if that takes a few days, it does. we need to get the future of our nation right. and 2that starts by getting the election results right. we're going to take care of that business in michigan and we can't trust donald trump. he's prove than. of course he's going to lie and try to sew chaos and division. i think we can ignore him, frankly, and we should focus on getting the results right, not

fast. >> lieutenant, any update on when you think it will be done? >> i mean, the truth is that voting is actually going well in pennsylvania. the one documented case of voter fraud in the cycle was a republican in a county who tried to vote for his deceased mother. but that doesn't necessarily factor into this unprecedented assault by donald trump on the integrity of our voting system which is absolutely sound. once again, that's part of that chaos. he's not even trying to hide that. it's part of his strategy. and you have a number of counties in pennsylvania that have defected to announce they're only going to count mail-in ballots starting november 4th. i disagree with that. like i said, the two-prong approach in pennsylvania is one that is the trump campaign's only path to victory.

>> gentleman, appreciate your time on this sunday morning. best of luck in the days ahead. thank you both for being us. and anybody out there, vote. if you have a chance, vote. don't trust the mail at this point. up next, the final 2020 campaign is the next week of the coronavirus pandemic.

in the closing days of a campaign, we know the coronavirus will stay with us past the election. let's look at the numbers. 37 states, that's the red and the orange. we do politics red and blue. red and orange here, those are states with more new co-vid infections than a week ago. there are 37 of them. nine states holding steady. only four reporting fewer infections right now compared to a week ago. this is where you see the troubling weeks and weeks and perhaps months ahead. look at the trendline. going almost straight up. a new record friday. last week was a week of record high case counts. 99,000. a little bit down on saturday. but the trendline there going straight up.

this was the summer peak, 77. you can see 20,000 plus over that already. and counting as we head up. this, too, a painful graphic in the sense that for all the cases, the death rate has stayed down a bit, but it is starting to trend up friday went over 1,000. let's hope they're wrong. the experts say days of over 1,000, maybe 1500 are in our future. let's hope they're wrong about that. if you look at that, this tells you the months we've been through. in april the northeast getting it mostly. a little bit in louisiana. some spots around the country. by july the summer surge. you see much more red. here's where we are now. this is pretty much all across america. yes, some areas darker than others. but all of america right now involved in this fall surge of coronavirus cases. to make ha that point, 31 states has record case count this is past week. 31. the president says we've rounded the corner. that tells you that is not true. as more states post the records. and in the final days of a campaign, this is what people are seeing.

this is what people are seeing. these are battle ground states. all across america, states, icu beds, virus continues to surge. people are getting sicker. let's bring into our conversation now our veteran cnn political commentators. alice, that's the question i want to ask you first. i get the president's in the middle of a campaign. i get the inconvenience of this. but this is his job. this is his job. not once in recent days or weeks has this surge has started has the president done an event at the white house as president. not as candidate, as president. to just walk the american people through what is happening. even if he wants to defend his policy, the voters can decide if they like it or not. why not? >> that's not a great messaging for him, and the reality is, and i think we agree, the numbers you outlined are the real reason why we're seeing 92 million americans vote early. they are motivated to vote

early, and use caution and social distance. but the coronavirus is a big factor. that's also why we're seeing joe biden using that as part of his closing argument. he's pushing co-vid as well as character, and he's really stressing what he feels as the administration's inaction on co-vid, and the president is out there certainly he talks about what he is going to do with co-vid and has done with regard to ppe and working on getting a vaccine and contact trump administration -- tracing and wearing masks and social distancing. he's driving home safety and prosperity and trying to steer away from co-vid, but really focusing on the economic opportunities the last four years he's created and what he plans to do moving forward. >> paul, i have the 2016 map up here. a lot of democrats obviously who thought hillary clinton was going to win will be grateful when we don't use this as a template anymore and we move onto a new election.

when you look at the map in the final weeks, we've gone through the polling in the program. joe biden seems to have a steady lead in michigan and wisconsin. the big question this time, we met a long time ago when it was the governor of arkansas running for president. he changed the map some. he was from arkansas and put together -- he won georgia, for example. in one of his campaigns he won arizona. do you see this as a map-changing election? >> i do, john. i do. fiction, it's good to -- first, it's good to see you. california had gone republican in nine out of the ten previous elections. nine out of ten, it was the most reliably red state in america, now texas. but texas is going to go blue. no democrat has won a statewide election since 1994 but there has been a surge in voting. texas is usually last in voting. it's number one in voting now. 9 million texans voting.

this is led by young people. it's things like that. a similar situation same thing. you got huge rallying of the democratic base. and suburbs collapsing for mr. trump. i think we are seeing that in a lot of states. >> that is the point. i'll bring up texas. that poll makes a key point. democratic voters are motivated by their anti-trump -- we expect high turnout among progressives and seeing if democrats can deliver up to election day with african-americans and latinos. the suburbs are the key. in 2018 in dallas suburbs, house democrats added a seat. houston suburbs harris county one of the fastest growing places in america, they picked up a seat. why have the suburbs we thought in a state ruby red why are they

turning against this president? >> a lot of that what we are seeing is with regard to women voters and his ability to connect with them. look. i think democrats have made tremendous inroads in texas. i spent a lot of time there in the cruz campaign. they have started to blaze the trail to turn that state blue. i don't see it happening at this point. i think it will be tremendously close. i don't see it happening. likewise in my home state of georgia, stacey abrams did a great job of leaning georgia to the blue column but i still see that staying as a republican state. i think we are looking at the battle of the sun belt versus the rust belt and looking at the sun belt states and looking at florida, north carolina, arizona. those are very tight. i see trump bringing those home on election day but the rust belt states, i think the trump campaign has a little bit more of a challenge. we are looking at pennsylvania, wisconsin, and michigan. we know pennsylvania has been, for the democratic candidates

the last six presidential elections until 2016 for trump so it is an uphill battle with joe biden going there before election day to make the closing argument. it will help to bring the democrats to his side. i do see president trump having a good day on election day with regard to these sun belt states. these numbers are super close and very tight and they have a good ground game and i see them turning folks out in these key states. >> to that point, paul, democrats in many places not at all but many places are encouraged by the early voting but the key in the end is execution. skupgs. let me pull the map out. until 2016, these states pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin had been in the democratic fold since 1992. trump flipped them. what are you hearing from democrats in the final days even in places they think we are good with early voting, can they

sustain it to the end? if you bank votes early but don't deliver on election day, trump does it again. >> absolutely. i do this for a living. i talked to the michigan state party chair commission. she knows how many. i talk to ben also. and senator casey i tried to get a briefing on pennsylvania. everyone in those rust belt swing states that alice referred to in the democratic party is just working their hearts out and they are starting to walk with pride now. they have been shell-shocked and ptsd from 2016 but an attitude change this week. some of it is trump is campaigning. newton's third law of physics apply. he is spreading covid.

he is frightening seniors and motivating the democratic base. pennsylvania is second oldest population of any state in america. a study out of stanford out yesterday saying just trump's rallies have caused 30,000 cases of covid and 700 deaths. if you're a senior citizen sitting in pennsylvania and you watch these superspreader events, shouldn't call them rallies. it motivates his base but it's turning out seniors a cohort that trump won and turning them out for bide biden. >> our medical team is skeptical of the findings of that stanford study we want to get that on record. thank you both for your insights. i hope you'll join us weekdays and especially in this big week ahead. we are here at 11:00 to noon eastern time weekdays.

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traffic and air pollution will be even worse after the pandemic. that's why we support measure rr to keep caltrain running. which is at risk of shutdown because of the crisis. to keep millions of cars off our roads, to reduce air pollution and fight climate change. and measure rr helps essential workers like me get to work and keep our communities healthy. relieve traffic. reduce pollution. rescue caltrain. [all] yes on measure rr. hey while the guys aren'tcatch listening.train. we need your help. your platforms are toxic to women who lead. we are targeted with ugly and violent language, with threats of sexual assault, coordinated bots attack women for political gain.

we have asked facebook to do better, our freedom, our democracy is at risk. we are fighting back, and we're asking you to join us. we've got your back, do you have ours? you know, lean in. a book that you're ready to share with the world? get published now, call for your free publisher kit today! last chance. with election day 48 hours away, candidates make their final pitches in crucial swing states. >> you are so lucky that i'm your president. >> we can put an end to a presidency that has failed to protect this nation. >> as joe biden tries to

maintain his lead, can president trump convince voters to give him four more years? i'll speak with biden campaign senior adviser net and dunn and former florida governor rick scott next. the blue wall hitting the country and joe biden tries to reclaim the states that turned for trump. >> it's time for donald trump to pack his bags and go home. >> can he rebuild that blue wall that crumbled in 2016? a special joint interview with the governors of michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin next. plus, the magic number. as the pandemic changes the way america votes and early voting reaches record highs, what are the paths to victory and 270 electoral votes for each candidate and how will election night go? i'm jake tapper in washington. the state of our union is on the edge of our seat after years of campaigning it all comes down to the next two days. election day, itself. now 48 h