right, chris. >> the state, overall, has voted with the popular vote. they voted with clinton by, like, .37. i mean, she lost the election but she won the popular vote. >> that's right. extremely, extremely close in 2016 and is a state, broadly speaking, although, most people, myself included, would be surprised if joe biden doesn't end up winning. i will tell you, i have been to exactly where they are. that guy has the most new england sweater, ever. as a guy from connecticut, the reindeer, that sweater, my dad had one of those. >> strong. >> i have been there. we used to vacation up there and i have been right towards where they are casting the votes. it's a really cool tradition. >> you do the research, every four years, right? we always look into this. and well, they are the smallest and they do it up more than millsfield. there is a third place that does it, also. they're not doing it this year because of covid.

they have a bigger population, too, they have 41 people. so they were a little bit more conscientious. so, they're putting the votes in right now. once they all get in, then we're going to hear it. so let's bring in gloria borger, also. thanks for rolling off anderson to us, to begin this. this is big. neither of us. for all the experience, forget about dixville notch. the idea that we have 100 million votes in, already. bo borger, with your experience. the encyclopedic memory. no one has ever seen anything like what we are experiencing right now in terms of the activism of our democracy. and i love that we are starting with this ceremony. but, gloria, to you, as we start here with the unofficial start of election day. the first votes cast in the country, midnight. they will be reading them in a few minutes. and when they do, we will give you that whole part of it. what does it mean that we've had more voter activism, already,

than you or i have ever seen before? >> well, first of all, i think it's remarkable. in the middle of a pandemic, in the middle of an economic crisis, in the middle of a country that's been rocked by race-relations issues. that, so many americans have decided that they needed to vote. and that, they ought to vote and, maybe, one thing we have learned from this pandemic is that the secretaries of state made it easier for people to vote because they could do it from home. they could do it by absentee ballot. and that, they were home and they decided, you know what, they made my civic duty, actually, easier for me. and these are issues i care about. so, on the one hand, it was more convenient. on the other hand, this is an important moment in american history. and i think there are a lot of

people watching this election, who understand that the choices are very stark and very different. that, these are men who are the polar opposites of each other, in many ways. who see the country in completely different ways. who talk to the american people in different ways. and i think people were paying attention, and i think they decided they -- that this was a moment that they had to step up to the plate and do it. and, you know, a lot of people are saying, tomorrow, we should expect -- or today, i guess -- we should expect shorter lines. i'm not so sure. i think there are an awful lot of people in this country who like to go out and vote on election day. and we'll have to -- we'll have to, you know, see how it -- how it turns out. but no matter what, people have to believe -- and this is sort of the important point after what we've been hearing from the president -- people have to believe that their votes will be counted. and that this is a valid election, and that it has been fair and free.

>> well, the only reason they have to question that. the only reason to question it is what's coming out of the president's mouth. >> exactly. >> we have no indication of anything else. there is no jump rule that was just instituted in the last few days, or even weeks. there's been litigation. we've been following this, all along. hey, so,let me bring you back in here. what happens if everybody doesn't vote in dixville notch at midnight? why do i have to come at midnight? i'm not a railroad worker. i'm not coming in. >> chris, i think, given it's hallowed tradition and the fact that we are covering it live on cable television. think that pretty much ensures turnout. look, 65.7% of people came out and voted for taft over brian -- excuse me, theodore roosevelt's

successor. could we get there? you are talking about 150-plus million. >> hold on. hold on. i think they put in all the ballots. hold on. i don't want to miss it. all right. he's opening up the box. and i'll give you a quick answer. we should beat 65%, and with good reason. all right. he's taking the ballots out, now. five. lean year in dixville notch. 2010 census had the population of 12. they're telling in the control room, only five ballots. percentage, that's a huge decrease in population. it's over 50%.

so, they do primary and general, right? there were -- there were five votes in the primary, also. so, it's consistent, from that race to this. i don't understand what he is saying. anybody who hears anything that he's saying. i guess he's calling out the names, right? >> chris, he's just going through the -- he's going through the names of the people on the ballot, if i'm not mistaken. because i think i just heard the libertarian candidate.

so, i think he is just going through it, and then seeing who the vote was for. but i'm not entirely sure, to be honest. >> i heard a biden there. >> 3-1 to biden? three went to biden, so far. >> mccormick, collins, kelly. >> remember, they're marking them all down. you heard collins there, as in senator collins. tough race there in maine. i heard biden, again. >> that'd be four. >> mathematically, impossible for the sitting president to win, at this point.

picture's frozen. we'll wait. sound's back. here we go. oh, yeah. susan collins is maine. this is new hampshire. this is a different collins. i heard biden, again. five for biden. if it is all five votes for biden, you better start doing some typing and tell me when's the last time you had a sweep. >> that's why i got the computer out, right now. just to your point, they're going -- they're just going down the ballot. obviously, the presidential race is at the top. but senator shaheen is up for re-election. not a contested race but that's what you are hearing those names

as they go down the ballot. state rep and that sort of thing. >> and again, collins is not susan collins of maine. this is new hampshire. >> we have the results. >> here it is. >> for president, we have five votes for joe biden. for governor, we have four for sumunu and one for feltes. senators. we have four for shaheen and one for mesner. >> no, i have the fastest

internet connection. >> remind people. in 2016, clinton won, i think, it was like 4-2 or something like that. and there was one i think for governor johnson. >> that's right. 4-2. >> and she won new hampshire by under a percentage point, .37. of course, lost the election. new hampshire as a bellweather, dixville notch does not have any correlation to outcomes. but it is a quaint way to begin what has become such a complicated process. imagine if all vote tabulation, everywhere it was going on, was as simple as this. >> it would take a long time, though, chris. >> it would take a long time but it would be accurate. i'll tell you that. and who cares how long it takes, if it's right? you know, there's one thing you learn as a journalist with any of these breaking events. being right is everything. being fast is almost meaningless.

especially, when it comes with any kind of discount effect to accuracy. so, gloria, here you go. 5-nothing for biden. now, we will start the real voting. and it is unusual and he still has nothing on -- >> i am working on it. dixville notch facts. >> well, great. i tell you what. while you're telling us that, why is it called notch? what's the difference between it and the rest of the township? >> the notch is in between the two mountains. there was a longtime -- there was a longtime hotel there called the balsams that was bought by les otten but moved to new hampshire, he has bought the balsams but has not refurbished

yet. fun fact. i vacationed at the balsams with my parents. >> when is the last time it was a clean sweep? >> i was busy telling you that information. gloria's going to handle the rest. >> there were ticket splitters there because there was sununu. >> what's your read on that, borger? >> what's interesting, i mean, sununu's popular. i think that, you know, people who might be republicans might have voted -- i don't know their affiliation -- could have voted for joe biden. >> gloria, what do you make of the fact that neither the president, nor former vp biden, spent any time in new hampshire recently? >> i think that biden probably felt he spent enough time there. i -- i -- i don't know -- you know, it seems to me that it's

just not a state they spend a lot of time in because you assume it's going to go one way. and the electoral vote tally is now high and it's not worth their time when you have all these battleground states you got to deal with. and also, don't forget, joe biden wasn't traveling a lot because of covid. >> right. >> and donald trump wasn't going to pick up and spend a lot of time in new hampshire. >> so, the last time you had a clean sweep was in 1960, which was the first time that dixville notch did this. not the first time that this little triad of small places did it. however, all nine votes went to president nixon. 1970. candidate nixon. kennedy won in 1960. candidate nixon. >> chris. chris, the last time was 1960. i found it. >> thank you. >> you still win. >> it's indicative of nothing, by the way. >> true. >> gloria. gloria did note, by the way.

look. george w. bush has won this little vote here so it's not just a bunch of democrats, just for the record. again, not indicative of anything. but this is not like, you know, bernie sanders and his closest relatives voting. this is people who -- les otten was a republican. so we should be at least noting the fact that it was a clean sweep for biden because it was 4-2 for clinton in the past. and, again, four plus two is six. >> i would argue this. you guys are right but it means a lot because it means we have begun. >> it started. >> that's what it means. we are now after midnight. this is election day. and we have -- we get excited every election day because it's an exercise of democracy that was literally a whisper of a dream when this country was founded. that we would have situations like this. but i've never seen an election with this kind of buy-in by the american people, early on, especially, in a time of such

division. there were people, like me, by the way, that when the early-voting aspects were introduced months ago, i was a seller on the proposition. i was like how many people are going to vote early? everybody's upset. the president's always saying everything's rigged. he is telling nobody to do it. probably, won't be a big deal. boy, was i wrong and thank god for that, gloria. the idea of buy-in of 100 million people, already. >> unbelievable. >> what? almost 65, 70% of the overall vote from 2016. >> yeah. >> you have had, just with early voting. so let me ask you this, mr. big brain, what does that suggest in terms of what kind of vote overall turnout we could have? >> yes. okay. so, 1908 is our landmark. obama, in 2008, was about 63%. the number to look at, i think, is north of 150 million, you're starting to approach around two-thirds of the electorate voting which, candidly, ten years ago, five years ago, chris, if you told me that that

would happen, i would have been very surprised. you and i went back and forth on your radio show. debating 2018. 50% turnout of eligible voters in a midterm. >> very high. >> very high. maybe, that was a leading indicator of this. the fact that you have had more votes cast in texas and in arizona, already, than were cast in the entire election in those states is -- i mean, it's a stunning statistic that i don't think you can overlook. the question, of course, is, does turnout on election day, on today, does turnout on that day, in person, match anything close to what we've seen in early vote? there are 46 million early votes cast in 2016. we're obviously up at 95-plus million, at this point. how many more votes are there out there? can we get to 150 million? and then, the bigger question, the one that really matters. who does that benefit, more? i tend to think it benefits

biden? a larger turnout. because you know the trump people are coming -- >> depends where they are. >> but -- but we don't know that, yet. i mean, that's the real thing. >> gloria? >> i think the question is what motivates people. and change motivates people. so, if i were guessing it in the early vote, i would guess -- and you have seen it in a lot of places, in florida it didn't turn out that way, the way that democrats would want it. but when you -- when you want change and you're mad about the way things are working. and you want a different president, quite frankly, you may be more -- more motivated to come out and vote. rather than, you know, say, i'm really going to vote because it's a vote of affirmation for something. now, it may change, today. can't believe i'm saying that. today, on election day. because the people who may be more voeftmotivated to come out people who normally vote on election day who don't like what

they have seen, perhaps, in the early voting. who are motivated, perhaps, by the president's rallies, for example. and, who may decide that they're going to -- that they're going to come out today. whether that can match what we've seen, who knows? but don't forget, it's not a popular vote that determines the president. it's the electoral college. and so, you have to look at those votes in the battleground states. >> now, i keep telling everybody ignore the noise, focus on poise. there's going to be a lot unresolved at the end of tonight, unless you have some very big moves with this. which, you know, less likely than not. what two states, gloria, are you keeping your eyes on? chris, same question to you after gloria answers. and then, we'll wrap it up. gloria? >> well, the -- obviously, look. we're all keeping our eyes on michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania. tonight, i'll keep my eye on florida because if we know a lot about florida, early on, and we have an idea of who's going to win in florida, that's either very, very good for joe biden if

he were to win it. or very good for donald trump, if he were to win it because it gives him more momentum at the -- in the rest of the map. but if biden were to win florida, then you would know that he would be on his way to the presidency. >> yes to -- >> hold on a second. i'm going to give you last word. and also, remember, give people context, chris, about how important florida is for republican presidential candidates. but we got millsfield in. i told you this. dixville notch. there's millsfield, which i think had 22 people. this time, had 21 voting. complete opposite result. it wasn't a clean sweep but 16-5 for the president, donald trump. so dixville notch. the ceremony, the beginning of the election, 5-nothing for biden. he matched the five votes in millsville. >> divided country. >> what do you say? 16 for trump in millsville.

what does it mean for republicans? and florida? >> florida, first. no president -- no republican has been elected president in 96 years without winning florida. that is not an accident and this is going to be the case. if donald trump can't win florida, it's not determinative. but, boy, does it get a lot harder. the two states i would watch. i'm with gloria. florida, pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan. but i would, also, add iowa and north carolina for -- for a couple reasons. they're both very competitive, at the presidential level, right? but they, also, both have really competitive senate races. we haven't talked about it but the battle for the senate majority is going to be a huge story line, later today, and the rest of the week. >> will we know senate? >> i think we will, yes. >> we might. >> without the two georgia races? >> well, remember, georgia, if no candidate gets 50%, it's a runoff in january. >> right. >> so, we may not.

but i think there's at least a 50-50 chance we will. and i will tell you, if you see a sweep, if democrats win north carolina and iowa in the senate. or if republicans win both, i think that's going to tell us a lot about where it's headed. if republicans win both, they may hold the majority. if democrats win both, i think they are going to win the senate majority. if it's split, chris, we may be waiting until january to see how they pan out. >> that's my second state. florida, for all the reasons you guys laid out beautifully. arizona, second. my main reason is going to be i like quick outcomes. no matter who wins, i like quick outcomes. arizona. you'll have to wait because of the time delay but they're in early voting -- early-count vote. and that is a state -- so they should have their eggs in a row -- eggs in order. and that's a must-win for nobody but if biden wins, it really changes the calculus. so i am going to be looking that and florida, early on, just as a

predictor of how this night will go. gloria, chris, thank you for living history, with me. appreciate it. >> drink some coffee. you will need it. >> no need. i'm built for this. we have been waiting years for this. what is better than to see people decide their own fate? that's what i love about this. the outcomes are going to be what they're going to be. you don't really control that. you just control your part. and i am so proud of my country. that you had 100 million of you, almost, come out. pandemic. ugly, political environment. so little to, kind of, have reason to believe and be filled with optimism and positivity that just sends you on a cloud of this expectation of better. and yet, you did it. you grinded it out and we'll see how it goes today. it's a huge day. but just what brought us to this moment, to me, is amazing. now, that is a solid known, and i hope it's a source of pride for everybody. but we have so many unknowns. that's why i'm saying you have to ignore the noise, focus on

poise. focus on balance and what you know, versus what you're waiting for. what will we know, by the end of the night, tonight? election night. which states, which races, therefore, should we be watching most closely? the wizard of odds has good indications. next. ustfor what? (burke) every year you're with us, you get fifty dollars toward your home deductible. it's a policy perk for being a farmers customer. (customer) do i have to do anything? (burke) nothing. (customer) nothing? (burke) nothing. (customer) nothing? (burke) nothing. (customer) hmm, that is really something. (burke) you get a whole lot of something with farmers policy perks. see ya. (kid) may i have a balloon, too? (burke) sure. your parents have maintained a farmers home policy for twelve consecutive months, right? ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪ (burke) start with a quote at 1-800-farmers.

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♪ hey, i'm chris cuomo and welcome to the beginning of election day in america if you are in the east coast. if you are on the west coast, i'm going to give you some advanced notice. we just had the quaint, little ceremony of the first votes cast in this country. happens in new hampshire, right? dixville notch. got to pay attention, every four years. small, little place. just five votes this year. they went five-nothing for biden. now, it's actually a little triad up there. it's dixville notch, a place

called millsfield, and then, hearts location. not doing it, this year, because of covid. millsfield did it and dixville notch. i gave you the result there, five-nothing. millsfield, 21 votes, 16-5 for trump. so, those are the little wows of the beginning of this election in america. now, the huge wow. the shocking wow and a tremendous source of pride, i hope, for every american man and woman. nearly, 100 million of us have, already, voted for this election. a million have been cast. millions more are accepted in these next hours, today. but what a thing? what an accomplishment, in the middle of a pandemic, can you imagine what this country is capable of when activated? even though, it's not like you got a lot of beautiful things going on in your life right now, right? it's not like you are riding on a wave of soaring rhetoric.

it's not like someone's given you such profound reason to believe that you just can't not vote. we're not in one of those moments. we're divided. it's toxic, literally and figuratively. and yet, 100 million went out to say i want a hand in the fate of my future. beautiful. just for that. now, let's see what happens today. what do we know from what we learned with this 100 million? glad you asked. the wizard of odds, harry enten, is with me. thank you very much. so let me ask you what i asked gloria and chris. who are you watching? >> i tell you what i'm watching. i am watching the ten closest states that donald trump won in 2016. you obviously know some of those. you know michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, florida, arizona, north carolina. but beyond that, georgia, ohio, texas, and iowa. all of these states have been fairly competitive. obviously, the ones towards the top of the list have been most competitive. but i am watching all of these. joe biden has a legitimate shot

to win in all of them so all of these are on the board. >> when? let's deal with the when and the what? let's start with the what. what will we know, tonight? >> sure. so, you know, we have spoken about this, over and over and over, again. record vote by mail, record early vote. and if you look at the six closest states trump won in 2016, you basically see a divide, right? before election day, absentee ballots, vote by mail, have been preprocessed in places like arizona, florida, north carolina. and in michigan, some of the big cities started earlier on monday. but then, on or after election day, the rest of michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin. so, we will have a much better understanding in the sunbelt, in those six -- of the six closest states in the sunbelt. that's where we will have understanding of places like arizona, north carolina. while, michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin, we may have to wait a long while because there's such a difference we believe in vote by mail and the people who vote election day, who they are choosing.

>> so you don't think we find out the winner of pennsylvania, tonight? >> it's possible. >> what has to happen for it to be possible? >> i mean, essentially, one of the candidates has to blow the other one out. and it's probably biden who would have to be blowing trump out. >> why? >> because joe biden's doing much better, certainly, we believe and the democratic registration so far leads us to believe it's much more of a democratic vote. and that's going to be counted, probably, later. so even if trump is up after the first votes are counted in pennsylvania, that doesn't necessarily mean very much because there's going to be such a wide partisan split, at least by the numbers we've seen, so far. >> is it the case that you will know how many more votes there are to count? so that people can do, you know, some math in their head? so let's say trump is up by x votes, at 10:00 tonight. won't you know the partner statistic, which is how many votes they need to still count over the succeeding three days? >> we should have a pretty good

idea. obviously, it depends on some of the counties. some of them are counting much more slowly. some of them are just saying we have too much to do. we're not even going to count our mail-in votes until wednesday. so, it really does depend, from county to county. we'll have some idea, right? but i really do think we need to be patient, patient, patient. it's so much more important to be right than to be fast. >> do you think you'll know the state of play in any change in the senate? >> yeah. i do, in fact, think we may know some of the state -- the change of the state of the senate. and you know, i am basically looking at these states, right, these are potential democratic pick-up opportunities and republican pick-up opportunities. those five democratic seats, arizona, colorado, iowa, maine, and north carolina. they do preprocess their mail-in votes before election day. so, we may, in fact, have a much better idea of what's cooking in the senate than we necessarily do in the presidency. so, there is sort of that split there. >> why do i keep reading we're not going to know because of georgia? and you need one or both of those senate seats and, by state

law, if you don't have 50%, you have a runoff. and it doesn't look like either winner will have 50%. >> right. so if it gets to georgia -- >> hypothetical, at this point. we haven't counted the votes but, you know. >> right. if we get to georgia, we may not, in fact, know because georgia has that 50% plus one rule. in order to potentially have that runoff, all the way in january, i will note. but the fact is there are enough seats out there that the democrats could, in fact, get the majority. or it could be the case republicans hold on and we don't even need to see about georgia. obviously, we have to wait and see but there is still a lot of unknowns in this election, at this point. even 12:33 in the east on election day. >> just as if this is the first time you are hearing it, you know, georgia has -- i think louisiana, also, has this but we don't expect that to be a factor. they're not in contention, the same way. georgia has a rule in the state that, if you don't win in the senate race -- this is not in the presidential race -- if you

don't get 50 plus one in terms of the split, it goes to a special election. and then, you don't find out until january 5th because i think the senate runoff is the 3rd? >> so, we don't find out until the 5th. so this is going to take all the way till next year if we, in fact, have to do these runoffs. and that, essentially, means, you know, the senate may be seated, you know, on january 3rd. and then, we'll actually have to wait two days to actually find out who has control. so, it could be the case the senate is decided tonight or we have a very good idea what's going on. or it could be the case that we have to wait all the way until january, which of course is another development in a bizarre election year that finally seems to, maybe, be coming to an end or maybe not. >> one of them is a special election, right? so that's dicey to get 50% because you have five candidates there. now, senator david perdue, republican.

jon ossoff. did well in the debate. perdue. did you see any change in the polls after he mangled senator harris's name, you know, presumptively, on purpose? >> what i will say is that race has tightened significantly over the last few months. it's obviously hard to assign things to one particular event. but joe biden closed very strongly in georgia. and if there's one state sort of outside the top six that i'm watching, it's -- it's that one. obviously, biden went down there. they thought they had a real shot to win at the end and, obviously, if biden does win, he'd be the first democrat to win down in the peach state since bill clinton did in 1992. >> harry enten, thank you very much. appreciate it. on our watch, we have some breaking news about the state of play of what votes will count and what won't in texas. literally, a decision that just happened and what happens next. let's discuss. ♪ [sfx: typing sound]

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scott wiener immediately went to work, making sure families could put food on their tables, defending renters facing eviction, securing unemployment benefits, helping neighborhood businesses survive. scott wiener will never stop working until california emerges from this crisis. the bay area needs scott's continued leadership in sacramento. because we know scott is fighting for all of us. re-elect scott wiener for state senate. breaking news, on our late-night election watch. the texas county at the center of multiple legal changes is reducing the number of polling places, just hours before the polls open. why? they're playing it safe, to preserve as many votes as they

can, in the face of pending litigation. we're talking about harris county. leans democratic. home to more people than we have in about 26 other states. our ed lavandera is live in houston. the seat of harris county. ed, i had chris collins, the county clerk, on earlier. we actually discussed how the judge at the district-court level, while not putting in an opinion, but saying he wasn't going to change anything. said, i'll tell you what, though, if this was about that drive-in voting, tomorrow, i would have said it was not legal. and chris hollands, at the time, said, we're not playing that. now, a couple of hours later, a change. what do you know? >> let me -- let's back up a little bit here and just -- the bottom line is there was a great deal of concern, among tens of thousands of voters here in harris county, who have used these drive-through sites to cast their ballots in the

three-week, early-voting period. that's about 127,000 votes. essentially, all of the legal maneuvering that has gone late into the night, tonight. those votes will count. if you cast your ballots in those drive-through locations, you have nothing to worry about, at this point. but, county officials here, in the houston area, had these ten drive-through locations that were still going to be operating tomorrow, on election day. that republican group that was trying to shut these down had appealed the judge's ruling, earlier today, to the 5th circuit court of appeals. that motion and that ruling came down, just a short while ago. and that was, also, denied. but, in the meantime, since you had chris hollands on, earlier tonight, he sent out a series of tweets tonight saying they were -- essentially, harris county is going to voluntarily shut down nine out of the ten drive-through locations here, in harris county, in his words, out

of an abundance of caution. because there is so much wrangling over exactly how these drive-through locations have been set up. and essentially, this boils down to, according to texas election code, these drive-through election polling sites must be in a building or a structure. and this is coming down to the definition of exactly what is a structure. and the judge, today, in houston was very skeptical about whether or not a tent that cars could drive through/into, could qualify as a structure. so because of that, out of an abundance of caution, the one site, the one drive-through site that will be open on tuesday is the site at the toyota center. this is where the houston rockets play basketball. so, that is a building. that is a structure. and because of that, they felt confident that they could wi withstand any legal challenges. and chris hollands is doing this because he says he can't in good

faith, risk their votes not being counted on election day. so essentially, even though the courts have ruled with harris county, all day long. essentially, this republican group is getting most of what they want. they wanted these sites shut down and that's what they're getting tonight. >> but they also wanted those other votes not to count and they didn't get that. but it is interesting, you're right. it had a chilling effect. just the attempt. because it wasn't a decision. but just the attempt, part of the trick, at least. ed lavandera, thanks very much. let's dive more into the legalities and what is happening in texas, and what it means by extension. we have jessica hughesman. reporter with propublica. it's great to have you. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> so you had the court of appeals saying we're not going to go with you on this and it was still enough, threat of that litigation, to change the rules for today. election day, in texas what's your take? >> you know, i think this is a

really tricky move on the part of chris hollands who has kind of, overnight, become like one of the more famous household names in the country which is very exciting from an administration perspective. but i think at the end of the day, what's more important is maintaining the votes and making sure that the votes that are cast will count. and so, since we are certainly looking at quite a bit of litigation after this election, i think he made the safest call that he could have. it is unfortunate that those ten polling locations had to be closed down because we're still arguing about what a structure is. but -- but at the end of the day, i think he made the most responsible choice. >> why do you think -- or what do you think is the best argument against having the multiple polling structures? >> you know what? i don't have one. and -- and i think that that's -- that's really part of the problem. is that the texas republicans are doing things that are objectively suppressive. and i think that that's starting to backfire on them.

i mean, we're watching earth-shattering turnout in texas right now. and i was born and raised here, and i have never seen anything like this. and so, i think that there's a lot of voters in this state who are watching the objectively-suppressive actions from the gop. and going out to vote against those -- those platforms. and -- and i think that's going to be a really powerful thing for people to watch on election day, regardless of how it plays out. >> you think hollands should have rolled the dice, given that the district court and circuit court were with him, so far, and kept them open to maximize the volume? >> you know, i think that he probably did make the correct choice, given the sort of hesitancy with which the initial judge looked upon those tents as structures. i think that the only rational thing to do was to just make absolutely sure that if somebody was going to come and cast their vote tomorrow, both the county and the voter could be absolutely sure that that vote was going to count. >> jessica, thank you very much.

everything is happening, in realtime, here and texas is going to matter. like you said, maybe, more than ever. appreciate you very much. >> thanks so much. >> all right. here we are. living history, together. election day has arrived, at long last. the president is still campaigning. his final rally is in grand rapids, michigan. the same place he ended his first presidential campaign, in 2016. no social distancing, no real, widespread masks, because his campaign is, what pandemic? now, will it work? let's discuss when our special coverage continues. is not the same.

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today or made leading up to today will matter because these two men do not have the same take on what to do. the president has shown how serious he takes the virus by showing how seriously he doesn't take it. cases are only trending in the right direction currently in five states. everyone else is holding steady or climbing. just follow the colors, okay? the u.s. just set yet another record for the highest seven-day average of daily new cases, more than 81,000. it's nearly double what it was last month as a pace. and we're climbing up to nearly 1,000 deaths per day. and we can forget about the "it doesn't really affect anybody" or "this is just a trickle." 1,000 deaths a day is unacceptable with something that could benefit from better planning and more of an attack. rounding the corner? only if you want to describe a death spiral. that's the only kind of rounding that's happening here. his own covid task force

coordinator dr. deborah birx sounds warnings, and in a new internal report today, according to "the washington post," birx writes, quote, we'rent ring the most concerning and deadly phase of this pandemic, leading to increasing mortality. it's not about lockdowns. it hasn't been about lockdowns since march or april. it's about an aggressive, balanced approach that is not being implemented. do you know what that's proof of? whi why you're hearing from dr. scott atlas and not dr. birx. this president goes not with who knows but those who say what he wants. let's bring in dr. leana wen. thank you very much, doc, especially at this time. appreciate you. welcome to "election day in america." the idea of birx is wrong, things go up and down, but we're trending in the right way. some states are good. some states aren't so good. that's the way it goes. many believe that who are going

to the polls today. what do you want them to know? >> well, i want them to know that it's completely wrong, chris, because every metric that we have shows that we are going in exactly the wrong direction here in the u.s. i mean we've added 1 million new cases of coronavirus in the last 14 days, and we're going to add a million more in less time than that. we have hospitals in many parts of the country that are already at capacity. there are patients especially in rural hospitals who need a higher level of care who are now having to drive hundreds of miles away for that care, and those hospitals may soon not be taking any patients anymore. i mean this is a really concerning phase of the pandemic that we're in, and the last thing that we should be doing is downplaying the virus as the president is. actually we should be talking about the steps that we all need to be taking in order to prevent lockdowns from happening in the future. >> the next argument is, look, you can't control this anyway. so the idea that, i need to vote for biden because he'll be

better than trump, there really is no better because you can't really control it. it's got to work its way through, which is why the lockdowns were such a waste. what do you say to that perspective? >> it's just not true. we know that there are simple interventions that can save a lot of lives. for example, something as simple as mask wearing. right now, only about 50% of the country is doing universal mask wearing. if we can get that number to 95%, we will save over 100,000 lives this winter, which is twice the number of people who died from breast cancer this last year. so there are targeted measures like that that we can implement. but if we do it too late, then hospitals are going to be overwhelmed. and you can imagine it's not just patients with coronavirus. what happens to patients with chest pain who are dying from heart attacks, can no longer get care in an e.r., when health care workers, there aren't enough hospital workers around the country, and patients cannot even call 911 to get paramedics to pick them up.

at that point, lockdowns may be inevitable, and we need to prevent our hospital systems from that kind of strain. >> we have a report from "the washington post" that the president plans to hold a 300 to 400-guest event at the white house indoors to watch the election returns. you got to give him this much, consistency. he wants people to know he does not believe that covid is a threat and it doesn't matter what the numbers does say. but what does matter, dr. leana wen, is what the people say. we will know a lot more about that today and tonight. thank you for joining us and for the straight talk. >> thank you, chris. >> election day. can you believe it? i can. this has taken a long time. we've been watching this for a long time. the president, though, still burning that midnight oil in michigan. our special live coverage "election day in america" has begun. let's get after it next. - i didn't know why my body was moving on its own.

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welcome to "election day in america" certainly if you're on the east coast. i'm chris cuomo, and we're back with continued live coverage here on cnn. this is the big day. if you're on the west coast, i'll give you a little cheat on what's been going. we're watching the final steps of this campaign. biden is done. trump is holding his final rally in michigan, grand rapids, same place he wrapped up in 2016. and i was making a very direct message about success breeds success. now, biden ended his campaign in pennsylvania. in fact, he and harris were going around a lot of these different counties that clinton got killed in four years ago. it's an interesting strategy play. we'll talk about that more. now, it's certainly as a state going to be one of the most closely watched occasions tonight, and you're not probably -- probably -- we'll discuss this also, but we probably shouldn't know the result in pennsylvania tonight, and we'll discuss why. as for the president, he's not

letting up on pennsylvania as a problem when there is absolutely no proof of that. the supreme court took a look at what was happening in pennsylvania, and they took a pass. they allowed ballots there to be counted if they are received up to three days after election day as long as they were stamped as mailed by election day, okay? legal ballots. but this president is trying to make it sound like it's something nefarious. listen. >> i think the pennsylvania decision by the supreme court is a very dangerous decision. i think it's a decision that allows tremendous cheating to go on after the fact. >> first of all, how? how? how does it allow cheating to go on after the fact? if anything, the reason that you would want to err on the side of letting votes be counted later rather than earlier is that you're going to have more

attention to it. you're going to have more staff that are able to do it because the other counting is done. there's no preparation. nobody's early. nobody's getting a jump. it doesn't make any sense. but more important than the empty suggestion of cheating is the implication of what he sees happening, which is violence in the streets because of what was done in pennsylvania. that's what he tweeted. this isn't my suggestion. i would never say anything like that. but this president says that the decision in pennsylvania by the state supreme court in pennsylvania will induce violence in the streets. no, it's not what a court decision does because we have seen none. and if it were the decision that had done it, it would have happened. what might induce or incite violence in the streets is exactly what this president is doing on the eve of an election. something must be done, he said. something was done. it went through the process of justice in this country.

now, what does it mean? well, it certainly means that the president is trying to be misleading about election and participation and the legitimacy of this election. and that is a form of really just non-democratic thinking. elections shouldn't be violent. a president running for re-election shouldn't be inciting violence. and you know who knows it? his opponent. >> the power to change this country is in your hands, in your hands. i don't care how hard donald trump tries. there's nothing, nothing that's going to stop the people of this nation from voting, period. >> let's bring in astead herndon and ron brownstein. it's nice to be sharing history with you. here we are on election day at least on the east coast. we're a couple hours early for the west coast, but we'll give

them a cheat. mills field went 16-5 for trump. the other place, what's it called? hart's location. they didn't do it this year because of covid. we got that out of the way. now it's about how things look today. astead, let's start with where trump was on monday and where they'll end today. of michigan, all these multiple stops, what's the theory of their closing case? >> the trump theory of the case is to bring back that midwestern coalition that we saw in 2016. now, the polling tells us that michigan, wisconsin, even places like pennsylvania are harder for him than it was in 2016. but he's still trying to play those same kind of cards, right? so michigan has been the place where he has tried to say that -- he's tried to link back to joe biden and trade deals. he's trying to link back of kind

of a fear of a rising progressive tide. but we haven't seen it play out in the same way. i was in detroit. i was in lansing, michigan, a couple days ago for the president's rally. and the thing that you feel there that's different than four years ago is a kind of attention pay by the democratic party to that part of the country. you have to remember that the clinton campaign, for its own faults, did not invest in those places, did not actually kind of see those places as a part that was necessary for that strategy. that has been night and day for the biden campaign. they have looked very, very clearly at those places. and also in 2018, they've gotten good encouragement. you have the governor's race. you have the statehouse race. you have the actual statewide races to say that democrats have a path back to victory that's through kind of persuasion of those suburban counties. and that's what biden's relying on tomorrow. >> so, ron, pick up on astead in terms of do you agree with the

analysis of what's happening in the midwest. then fold that into why biden and harris are in so many counties that clinton got clobbered in in pennsylvania. >> first of all, where the president is is very revealing. the county that grand rapids in, hes n 2016 by 10,000 votes roughly. as astead was alluding to, in 2018, it snapped back. gretchen whitmer won that county as part of a general pullback from the president across the upper midwest both in suburban white collar neighborhoods like oakland county, michigan, which is one to watch tomorrow, where whitmer doubled clinton's margin, but also in a lot of blue collar places. the blue collar places are what are particularly interesting about the ending of the biden schedule, chris, you could say almost any democratic nominee running against donald trump with all the prove kags he creates, would improve on clinton's margins in a lot of big suburbs and metro areas. what biden is doing throughout is focused on trying to sand

down those trump margins in trump country, in blue collar places. he was in beaver county, pennsylvania, today. clinton lost it by 20 points. kamala harris was in luzerne today that clinton lost by 20 points. you don't usually see candidates the day before the election in a place that they lose by 20 points. usually they're waving a flag in the place where they know their popular. but a big theory in the biden campaign is that his unique value is sanding down, reducing, diminishing those trump margins in those blue collar places. you add that up with what's happening inside the metros, and it makes a very rust combination for the president in those rust belt states. >> astead, what do you think about trump's play in pennsylvania, which is to say it's not legitimate, that what the state supreme court was dangerous. it's going to incite violence. is that his way of basically just doing the best he can to upset any result that doesn't go in his favor? >> look, it's telling that the trump campaign and the president himself is not going about this

to say, oh, i'm going to win more votes. oh, i'm going to convince more people of my message. but that i am going to try to rig the rules of the game. i'm going to try to shift the idea that the most -- the person who gets the most votes in those states is going to be the winner. i think that's what democrats are scared about and that's what republicans are playing into, particularably in pennsylvania. now, we have to know that pennsylvania will only be a tipping point state if all those places before that goes in the president's favor. in north carolina, in florida, if georgia, in arizona go in biden's favor, then pennsylvania becomes less important. >> right. >> what we see here, though, is donald trump's campaign placing a bet on these tipping point states to not say that we're going to convince more people to vote, but to say that we are going to try -- to try to shift the kind of basic idea of democracy in these places, and that, i think, is a kind of fundamental question that we're going to have to ask ourselves

if it gets to that point. is it that every ballot counts either in mail or in person or absentee or the like, or we're going to let the trump campaign get away with the idea that something after the election day doesn't count when we know that that's what happens every election day. ballots are certified after the -- >> that's how he won arizona and michigan. >> yeah. >> he won it days and weeks after -- some populist he turned out to be, ron. so he doesn't want people's votes to count. he wants lawyers and judges to decide the election for them. that's some populist right there. >> and military ballots. >> yeah, military ballots also. >> that come in after election day. to this point, everybody needs should have a proper humility about the polls after 2016. and even if you believe the polls, biden is still short of being safely ahead in states that add up to 270. but having said that, you know,

biden is in a very strong position in all of the 20 states that hillary clinton won, and he's also in a strong position in michigan and wisconsin. they are in a different category than the other battleground states. and what that means, chris, is that if he wins all 20 clinton states, michigan, and wisconsin, trump has to win everything else that both sides are contesting. he has to win pennsylvania and north carolina and florida and ohio. >> but he could. >> and arizona and georgia and texas. he could. >> yeah. >> but i'm just saying to make the point that he could, but he has to run the table. he is operating on a very narrow ledge. and, yes, he can make it work, but that is a lot of dominoes that have to fall in his direction. >> i mean, you know -- well, there's no reason to prognosticate, but this president could definitely win this election. now, let's talk about why in terms of looking beyond this huge headline that i am so proud of just as an american. having 100 million people just about come out and vote early.

i have to be honest. when we were talking about early voting, astead, i talked to ron about this a couple times but never with you. i didn't think people were going to do it. it's hard. nobody trusts, you know. it's like, what am i even doing this early for? i don't want to vote at all, and now i'm going to vote early? you know, and the pandemic. yeah, it was scaring some people, but then he was saying not to do it. 100 million people saying i want a hand in my own fate. i think it's beautiful. now, do you believe that there are as many votes -- there can't be another 100 million votes. we'd have 200 million votes in the election. but how many votes do you think you have today at the top side, astead? what would be a boffo turnout? >> i mean i think that we are likely to see a turnout that we haven't seen in modern times, right? so when we get past the kind of 160, 180 point, i think that is something that's unique. i think what republicans are betting on, right, is that they

are going to have a better in-person election day turnout than democrats have, right, who have been voting early, who have been voting by mail. but i think that's still a very risky strategy. what we know from polling, for example, is that older black voters prefer to vote by mail. so in places like florida and places like pennsylvania that have not had early voting before this year, we're actually expecting a democratic turnout in some of those places. so that speaks to the kind of narrowness of the trump strategy. certainly he can win. certainly we're expecting republicans to come out on election day specifically because of the way the president has kind of said -- has kind of cast doubt on mail-in balloting specifically. but what we do know also is that there are also going to be democratic constituencies that do that as well, and that is going to make the path even more narrow for the president. >> right. >> and that's frankly what we

have at this point, is kind of one set of strategies that allows donald trump to win and a kind of multiple paths for joe biden that does not make it impossible. it just makes it more narrow. >> that's one more path than he had in 2016, and he wound up winning. ron, you've never covered one like this before, brother. i call ron the professor because he seems to know everything. but we've never had this kind of early vote turnout where you'd be dealing at a discount on election day and what that looks like in terms of who votes early and then who shows up today. what's your best reckoning? >> yeah, right. if 160 million people vote, it will be the highest turnout since before women had the right to vote in a presidential election. so to me, i mean i think the key question about the turnout is the underlying geographic divide that trump has deepened. i mean he really has exiled the republican party from the big metros in america, not only on the coast and the upper midwest,

but now we are seeing it through the sun belt whether it's atlanta, houston, dallas or phoenix. the big population centers, i think, are going to vote against him in historic numbers. he lost 87 of the 100 largest counties in america. i think he's going to lose over 90, and it's going to be more closer to 20 million votes. i think voters in those places look at the way he talks about race, about women, the violence that he has promoted and they say i'm not part of this coalition anymore. to me, the question is are there enough votes in small town and rural america to keep up with the kind of surge in turnout we have already seen in places like houston and dallas and austin. and that is going to be, i think, the critical question because win or lose, i think trump is going to be weaker inside of the big population centers driving the economy. for example, i think the counties he wins are probably going to account for only about 30% of the total gdp. his path is massive turnout, small town, rural, white, blue collar america. and are there enough voters out

there to keep pace to what is going to be, i think, some historic levels of democratic turnout and margins. again, not only in northern virginia and new jersey and california where we've seen it before, but atlanta and gwinnett and cobb and houston and travis and maricopa and so forth. >> that's going to be the interesting part of the analysis. again, you don't have a republican in almost 100 years winning the presidency without florida. so the president is ending here with his recent kind of, you know, his famous end of ymca. i got to say, astead, all these people are digging this song, and i wonder if they are aware of who is singing this song. >> the provenance. >> and what this song was about. the provenance of this song. well said, ron brownstein. it's just so ironic to hear president trump -- and they're kayleigh mcenany, you know, doing a little dance to ymca.

the idea of the most benign reading of this song's lyrics about inner city needs and desperate people doing whatever they can and believing in themselves and working in a situation where he says systematic inequality doesn't even exist. help me with the irony here, astead. >> listen, i did a story last year about the different campaign playlists between the candidates, and one of the most, like, provocative parts of that was the president's. i mean you talk about the village people. you talk about pavarotti. you talk about the kind of -- the voices you hear. i mean you'll hear fortunate son by credence there. that's a song specifically about -- >> he won't even let him use it. he won't even let him use it anymore because he says, you're the guy i was writing it about. >> exactly. but i'm saying that is still something that you would for a while hear at the president's rallies, and i think that from what we know from that, it's just the kind of jam playlist

that's completely removed from the kind of meaning and the spirit of those song lyrics. and frankly i think that that's indicative of a larger theme within the trump campaign, which is that you have a kind of specific relationship between the president and completely oblivious from the kind of larger question of this and the kind of larger implications that frankly might be a reckoning tomorrow. >> listen, again, we all grew up with the song. we all loved it. i grew up in queens. this was like our anthem? >> i grew up in queens. >> you know what i'm talking about. no man does it all by himself. put your pride on the shelf. just go to the ymca. i'm sure they can help you. they have everything you need. you can get yourself clean. you can have a good meal. you can do whatever you feel. i was once in your shoes. i was down and out with the blues. i felt no man cared if i were ali alive. this was about systemic inequality and people who were

relegated to less. and this is what the song is at the trump place where he says this problem doesn't exist? >> and it may have -- it was even more specifically about kind of, you know, gay liberation in the '70s. >> yes. >> that specifically. and it ends up in grand rapids, kind of a heartland of christian conservatism. look, irony is way past dead with donald trump and his playlist and many other aspects. you know, the way in which his personal life clashes against kind of all the values that his most religiously devout supporters claim to uphold. >> i was giving him a break on the gay thing, ron. i was giving him a break. i was talking about it at its most benign. >> it's election day in america. all the truths are finally, you know, coming -- you know, one last point on that. i've been thinking about this. the incredible, like, all the tough that taylor swift has done

for biden. the springsteen ad that he's narrated. he's never done anything like that. john legend, lady gaga, brad pitt. i mean the number of contributions that biden has had from small donors, like blue america is leaving everything on the field. i mean there is no institution, it feels like, in kind of blue america that is not all in on this election. and if, in fact, it is not enough, it is going to be quite a moment, you know, in kind of all of the population centers of the country about what america really is and what america really wants because the -- you know, if you go from like brad pitt and bruce springsteen to the 500 former republican national security officials and the two dozen former republican elected officials and the staff for romney and bush and mccain and cindy mccain and the fbi head for reagan and the cia head for w. bush, it is an

extraordinary outpouring. >> listen, we've got to go. astead, i'll give you the last word. >> and if that is not enough, i think it's going to be an amazing moment of looking in the mirror for america. >> astead. >> i'm just saying quickly as a newspaper reporter, we have to write multiple sides of what's going to happen on election night. and one of the things that you ask democrats right now is what if joe biden loses, and that question to them is unfathomable. it would spark a soul searching that is not comparable to what we seen saw in 2016. they could not think about the prospect of a loss, and i think that speaks to ron's point. >> we will see because you know what? everybody he identified as somebody who could be an influencer, in trump's america, they go like this. the elites and the insiders. >> yeah. >> to hell with all of them. we'll see. this will be a very important day. it will last a few days, and it will be talked about for decades. astead herndon, ron brownstein,

brothers, thank you for sharing history with me. appreciate you for it. >> see you later. >> 270. 270, 270, 270. it's the only number that matters. you will hear about 100 different numbers and data points between now and anybody is seriously talking about 270. but it's all that matters, and that's why i'm saying you've got to ignore the noise as much as you can and remember your poise. stay open. stay balanced. stay ready and curious. we will map out the possible paths. it's not going to be like spaghetti strings with a hurricane, but just which way it could go and why different states matter and timing as well, okay? let's get after it next.

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i'm having a big lunch and then just a snack for dinner. so we're using a speakerphone in the store. is that a good idea? one of the ways i do that is to get them out of the home. you're looking for a grout brush, this is -- garth, did he ask for your help? -no, no. -no. we all see it. we all see it. he has blue hair. -okay. -blue. progressive can't protect you from becoming your parents, but we can protect your home and auto when you bundle with us. -keep it coming. -you don't know him. in the final hours of the 2020 race, both the president and joe biden barnstormed one state in particular -- pennsylvania. why? 20 electoral votes. it made the race for trump in 2016. he won by 44,000 votes. the state could make or break the path to 270. again, the president flipped it. it went from blue to red. it was part of the wall. no more.

where do things stand now? phil mattingly is at the magic wall. phil. >> chris, finally, mercifully, this map is going to start to fill in over the course of the next 24 hours. little bit of red here, little bit of blue there. this map and what people are looking for going into this map largely reflects back in 2016. it's not the same race and not the same candidate on the democratic side. so many differences about it. but the map, the goals, particularly for the trump campaign, are the same, and that focuses on one state in particular. you've seen it in the spending. you've seen it in the travel. that is the state of pennsylvania. here's where things stand in pennsylvania at the moment. pull up the cnn polls, and you see joe biden has opened up a lead in pennsylvania. it's actually been pretty steady throughout the course of the campaign, 50% to 44% when you average the polling together right now. however, the trump campaign believes that they have momentum right now. why does that matter? well, take a look at what happens if joe biden wins pennsylvania and then goes on to win michigan and wisconsin. all he needs to do is restore the blue wall, and he's back

over 270 electoral votes. so let's dig in a little bit about what happened in 2016 that allowed president trump to burst through that blue wall. flip back to the 2016 map. pull up the state of pennsylvania. here's what you need to watch for. it wasn't in 2016 like some other blue wall states that hillary clinton didn't get big vote in the urban areas and in some of the surrounding suburbs as well. in the philadelphia area, hillary clinton did great by all accounts. in allegheny county, the home of pittsburgh, hillary clinton did great by all accounts. if joe biden can match those numbers or a little bitter, democrats would probably be happy. the clinton campaign's issue and where the trump campaign stunned the world was here, western pennsylvania, was here in northeastern pennsylvania. when you looked at the margins not in these huge counties but in smaller counties, you go up here into warren county, this is a tiny county, president trump netting only 12,444 votes. 2012, mitt romney was polling 10,000 here. you could basically go through the map in western pennsylvania and in county after county after

county throughout the west, donald trump was running up margins republicans didn't even think were possible. that is what his campaign says he's going to do again, not beast past margins but beat the 2016 margins. that includes in a place like westmoreland county. look at the margin there, 116,000 votes to 59,000 votes. they think they're going to do better this time around. to be frank, they need to do better this time around. that is where the biden campaign thinks they can come in. they expect to do well in philadelphia. they and to do well in pittsburgh. where they think biden's strength is holding down margins. he's from scranton. go down one county here into luzerne county. this was a county president obama won back in 2012. look at what donald trump did in 20 16. now, the biden campaign, who has sent joe biden to luzerne county doesn't necessarily expect to flip it back to blue but they

want to shrink those margins in trump counties where he ran up the types of margins that no one has seen before. you shrink those numbers and run up your totals not just in philadelphia but into the collar counties and out. do the same thing in allegheny county, maybe spread it out a little bit. all of a sudden, not unlike what happened in 2018 in the midterms -- republicans think pennsylvania is very much in play. >> thank you, phil mattingly. they could be right. look, that's why you have the election. the polls are done. the only poll that matters now are the votes that came in early, the votes that will be counted after this election that made it by election, and what you do today. we are in store for hours and days, maybe even weeks ahead. ignore the noise. remember your poise. no election is decided today. so let's go through what today

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we're not supposed to editorialize but i can't not say this. i am so proud as an american that nearly 100 million of us have voted already -- left, right, reasonable, all of you. whatever your reasons, you came out, and you had a hand your own fate. we've never seen anything like it, and i think it's a beautiful expression of our democracy. where it leads us, all right, let's get after that right now. 18 states and d.c. are already over 50% turnout. keep in mind we have -- we haven't topped 60% as a nation in terms of participation since the '60s. now, i've always found that very embarrassing, and you hear all the time from our veterans, hey, you want to thank me? vote. well, this time you're actually fulfilling your thanks to them in that way. let's discuss what this means. we have jennifer granholm and scott jennings. thank you for sharing history. the best to you and your

families. thank you for all you've done in helping the country through our reporting get to this point. jennifer granholm, governor, do you think that your vote is in and today is all about trump and whether he can meet or beat what has been put in already? >> well, are you talking about -- you mean do i think biden's vote is in and -- >> that the early vote is your vote. >> yeah. >> and today is now about whether trump can meet or beat. >> yeah. i mean i think that in a way, although i will say that i think there's a lot of just people out there who procrastinate. and so whether they're democrats or republicans, i think democrats are still going to show up tomorrow. i was talking to my son, who is 22 years old, and he was saying, you know, he's a total political junkie, but he's also a procrastina procrastinator. he says, mom, people my age, we're going to go to the polls. i'm taking my buddy tomorrow. he's never voted, but that's just us. so who knows, chris?

but to your point about the number, i'm just over here grinning because it makes me feel so proud of america as well. and i think that honestly, you know, i looked at the last gallup poll, for example, where they had people say whether they're satisfied or unsatisfied with the direction of the country. 80% of americans have been unsatisfied with the direction of the country. so i think what you're seeing is the people are taking the wheel. the people have decided they don't want any more of this. they want this country to go in a different direction. >> well, you've got republican early voters too, especially in florida. >> of course. >> they've been seeing a robust -- >> of course. >> a question i have about how to handle tonight as the president, if the president is going to have four more years, does he really want to start with controversy on election night? i mean doesn't it behoove him as well to let this process play

out because it's what he's going to inherit in his second term? i mean he doesn't want to have to deal with one more thing coming right into his second term, does he? >> well, i mean i had to chuckle at your question. does donald trump want to have another day of controversy? i mean we've had a day of controversy every day since he took office. i'm not quite certain that one more day is really going to change the trajectory of what will be regarded as the most controversial presidency we've ever had. i mean, look, i think what's going to happen tonight is we're going to know some states and we're not going to know others. and whether those states add up to 270 or not, i don't know yet. like you, chris, i think what is the most refreshing thing about this, i feel better about this election day -- i've been at this for 20 years. i feel better about this election day than i have any one because of the durability of american institutions. a lot of folks wrang their hands over the last four years and were saying we're never going to make it to the next election because of this guy. well, here we are. everybody's voting and everybody's going to get their

say. someone's going to win and someone's going to lose. but no one will be able to say the american people, as jennifer just said, didn't let their full voice be heard. >> except for the president, scott. >> whatever donald trump does tonight isn't going to change that. >> but what he's saying about, hey, this is going to incite violence with the supreme court in pennsylvania did. there's so many chances for fraud. we both know if you want to worry -- and, again, we've been through this many times. proving the case of widespread fraud in any election in american history is a very slim proposition. about you if you were going to mess, you'd mess early. people aren't ready. you don't have the same scaled resources. you could get ahead of the game. you could literally get a jump on it. you count after election day, you have all eyes on you. you have all the apparatus in check. for the president to suggest otherwise, i justdon't see the percentage for him. >> well, i actually think this is the greatest argument for not having federalized elections. the fate of our elections are in the hands of the hardworking

county clerks and secretaries of state in all these states, and it's not centralized. and so the point you're making is what if the head of our government, our entire government, were to try to mess with the outcome of an election. >> he is. >> because of the decentralized nature of our voting and the way we count the votes, that -- that's a good thing. so some people have actually suggested lately that we need a federalized election system. that's wrong. these local officials know what they're doing and they need to be allowed to do what they do. by the way, it doesn't matter what trump or biden says tonight. they do what they do according to their local and state laws anyway. >> right. i'm just saying, jennifer, it's just a weird brand of populism that the president is saying that he doesn't want votes to count and he wants judges and lawyers to decide the election in pennsylvania. >> yeah. >> it's just a weird swing. >> it's a -- it's the sign of somebody who is afraid he's going to lose, so he's going to go -- he's going to really attack the election itself. but i feel like i have to check myself because i'm agreeing so much with scott.

i think, you know, this demonstrates -- and we'll see what happens tomorrow. but the volume of votes and these local elected officials working and toiling to make sure they're all counted and the fact that this year more than any other year, despite the volume, everybody has a barcode. i mean this is all checked. you can't double vote. it's all assigned to you. you can track your vote. you know -- i mean it just -- this fraud issue kind of completely eviscerates in light of how many systems are in place right now to make sure that this is done right. so it's -- and the other point is that even up to tonight, less than half a percent of votes have been discarded. so i'm -- you know, i think this is a real exciting moment for expansion of voting now that we have this vote by mail and people have become hopefully are getting used to it. the clerks are getting used to it, and maybe it will be a sign that voting will actually be

made easier in the future. >> i'll tell you what. you know why i'm voting tomorrow? because i don't trust anything else. and i think there are a lot of voters like me. i want to be there in person. i want to look at this guy or this woman who is going to be looking through that stupid book and find my name, you know, if i get lucky so i don't is there to fill out another provisional ballot because of this great system we have. but it would be interesting to see today -- and again you can't have complaints with turnout. that's why i'm giving the frown to the president about questioning what's happening in pennsylvania. it's been reviewed. the supreme court reviewed it in the state. it was held in abeyance. we'll see what happens afterwards if they're going to take up it as a theory. let it lie, man. let the people have their say. let me ask you something else, scott. help me understand the draw of the trump crowd to the song "ymca" from the village people. >> you know, truthfully i don't

know. every campaign has their own -- >> even pence was almost dancing to it tonight. he was hand dancing. >> yeah. >> i don't even know if he's allowed to do that in his church, but he was hand dancing. what is that supposed to -- like why this song? >> i don't know. every campaign -- i've been part of putting together playlists for campaigns before, and we had our own playlist in the bush/cheney years and in the romney years as well. >> was "ymca" in there? >> i will say the trump playlist is among the most eclectic but also, you know, dance-worthy playlists out there. i assume it has something to do with the -- >> he's got pavarotti. he's also got the theme to "the titanic". >> i'm okay with having eclectic musical tastes. i'm just saying, jennifer, when you have a campaign that is based on the cornerstone that there's no such thing as systemic inequality, and you've got the village people seeing about a young man's battle to be himself and to be gay and be open and how hard it is for people in the inner city and

what the ymc can provide, for trump to be dancing to it is a little bit of an irony sandwich, no? >> i don't think they're reading too much into the lyrics of any of those songss. i was just saying they also have the theme to "the titanic" on there too. i'm just saying i think they're -- like trump's playlist is what it is. he's got the pavarotti -- not pavarotti. he's got opera singers. he's got a whole array of things. i just think it's the music that he likes. i think he's not thinking at all because the symbolism is really too -- >> go ahead, scott. >> let me do a little third shift punditry. it reflects that the president is putting together a broad coalition of supporters. >> finally. >> his playlist is reflective of the broad coalition. >> i like it. >> i think you're going to see that manifest itself on election day. there you go. >> hey, do you want, scott -- >> we'll see about those coalitions. >> do you want the president to play it cool tonight? this controversy about declare or not declare, do you see any need to push the process?

>> no, i don't. and i mean, look, it doesn't really matter whether he declares victory or not. it's actually irrelevant legally to the process. >> right. good point. >> i think it would make him look dumb if you declaired victory and then it turns out six hours later you didn't win or 12 hours or 24 hours later. so, yeah, i don't think it would be appropriate for anybody to go out and declare victory in an individual state when you don't have a majority of the votes counted. >> jennifer, last word to you. >> joe biden going out tonight and declaring victory after dixville notch. it's ridiculous. candidates are done having their say. it's the voters' turn to have our say. >> it's true, especially when millsville came in and he lost 16-5. you always have to watch the next one. here's what we know for sure. jennifer, you, scott, and i, we have never seen the kind of activism on the part of the american people that we've seen already going into this. so thank you for living history with me.

we don't always agree. sometimes i push too much. but i think the process is a good one for this audience, and i appreciate you both being a part of it. take care. jennifer granholm and scott jennings. all right. no one knows what lies ahead. i certainly don't. i don't even have a good feel for this race because even though i have the radio show every day and i get to talk to dozens of states, i haven't been out on the hustings, and this is just a weird time in this country. i don't know that, you know, a registration advantage really is going to play through with the early votes. a lot of people who back this president believe they do have something to fight for, and they do see it as change. they still see him as change. so let's bring in chris cillizza for some insight on what to watch tonight, not just now but just hours away. this is it, baby. game on, next. ok, just keep coloring there...

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thank you for allowing me to get my money right. who'sgovernor gavin newsom. the governor says prop 15 is, "fair, phased-in, and long overdue reform", that "will exempt small businesses and residential property owners." join governor newsom. vote yes on 15. hey while the guys aren'tcatch listening. we need your help. your platforms are toxic to women who lead. we are targeted with ugly and violent language, with threats of sexual assault, coordinated bots attack women for political gain. we have asked facebook to do better, our freedom, our democracy is at risk. we are fighting back, and we're asking you to join us. we've got your back, do you have ours? you know, lean in.

who's supkamala harris.5? harris says, "a corporate tax loophole has allowed billions to be drained from our public schools and local communities. no more. i'm proud to support prop 15." vote yes. schools and communities first is responsible for the content of this ad. always true. but it is today and tonight. an election, like no other, will bring an election night, like no other. we've never seen this kind of participation in an early vote.

we've never seen this kind of toxic division, amidst a major crisis. we're literally living a pandemic. so, what do you watch? what do you focus on when the results start? and, of course, as my daughter bella loves to say, you have to ignore the noise and focus on your poise. stay balanced. stay in control and filter what's coming in because a lot of it won't mean what it suggests. what do you say, sir? >> all right. so, i want to start, chris, with a race that i'm pretty sure most people aren't watching. but remember, we're looking -- like you said -- we're looking for the signal in that noise, right? we're looking for the signal that actually tells us something and that's why i want to go to indiana's 5th congressional district. a republican named susan brooks is retiring.

so, why are we talking about it? well, it's a really, really close race. it's not just that, though, chris. remember, polls close at all different times, throughout the country. in indiana and kentucky but, indiana, in this case, they close very early. we're going to see that race. if that moves, good for house democrats and good for joe biden. north carolina's number two. i mentioned it earlier in the show but i want to come back to it because this is a double whammy. remember, donald trump won north carolina. the data suggests that it's basically a tossup. almost, an exact tie, at this point, between trump and biden. and there is a hugely important senate race there. thom tillis, incumbent, running behind former state senator named cal cunningham. had some personal controversy in the last month. doesn't appear to have affected his poll numbers. if cal cunningham wins, big

deal. let's keep going. >> and the early-vote count, right? >> yes, and a quick vote count, which is important, as you say. >> go ahead. florida. >> florida. i'm not going to spend a huge amount of time on this because anybody who knows anything about politics knows florida's important. i'm going to say it again because it's that important. no republican has been elected president of the united states, in 96 years, without carrying florida. that's a heck of a lot more than a coincidence and it's true in this election, too. if donald trump does not win florida, you can get there. you can get him the 270 electoral votes in the rest of the country but, man, does it require a lot of heavy lifting in places where he's not polling all that well. he needs this state, again, because some of the state is in the central time zone, it's a 9:00 p.m. close. but it is one to keep an eye on. >> they do early-vote count, also. >> who knows how fast they count? i'm always weary after -- after the year 2000. okay. let's keep going. iowa. another one, like north carolina, that i don't think

that many people understand why it's a big deal for two reasons. yes, very close presidential race. this is a state donald trump won relatively easily four years ago, chris. but it is a state that is competitive. i still expect donald trump to win it but the issue may be his margin because if his margin is small, then i think you may see joni ernst, who won overwhelmingly, she was one of the most high-profile senators to win that year on that side. that's the race, right there, circle it. if democrats win that race, i think they retake the senate majority. they need three seats if biden wins. four if trump gets re-elected. if they win iowa, i think that suggests they're going to win it. i'm going to end on a gigantic state, mostly in the central time zone, little bit in the mountain time zone there in el paso, texas. look.

democrats have, since i started covering elections, democrats have been telling me that texas is moving their way. and i'm not as young as i once was, chris, so it's been a while. two decades, i've heard this. is this the year? is this the year that joe biden can change the map? we have seen texas be republican since 1976. jimmy carter is the last democratic presidential nominee to carry texas. can joe biden be the next one? important, chris, i started on a house race. i want to end on house races. in texas, democrats have huge pickup opportunities in the house, which is a remarkable thing. we could be looking at somewhere between 5 and 15 democrat net pickup in the house. you add that to the majority they already have, if they retake the senate, if they retake the white house, obviously, those are big ifs, it will be the first time they have complete control since 2008,

2009 really, when joe biden was vice president of the united states. that's where i am looking, at least at the start. >> that was a brilliant list of the five things to look at. especially, how you broke down texas and indiana. i'm wondering, though, by looking at that district in indiana, did you pick it because it looks like a hand puppet? >> yes, absolutely. >> the shape of the district looks like a hand puppet. >> yeah. sure. i can do the barking dog. barking dog. >> little bit. if you look at it. >> yeah, little bit. sure. also, looks like a dinosaur head but i had never really gone through that. >> another animal without ears. thank you and i appreciate you listening to johnny cash earlier. very strong. all right. thank you very much for watching. history is being made. we are living it together. cnn will be here for you and with you, all day long. poppy harlow, jim sciutto, continue our special, live coverage, of election day in america. let's get after it. next.

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a very good, early tuesday morning to you. have you voted, yet, america? i'm jim sciutto. >> we're so glad you are with us. hi, everyone. i'm poppy harlow. and it finally is here. election day is upon us. the day millions of americans will make their voices heard, if you have not already. joining the nearly 100 million people who have already cast their ballots, the race is like no other, at a time like no other. a worsening pandemic is shaping how we are all voting, and impacting who many are voting for. both candidates, wrapping up their final and starkly different closing arguments, just moments ago. >> we have to win. don't do that to our country. our country has too much unbelievable potential, actually. massively, increasing your regulations, shutting down your economy, they're going to close down your factories