♪♪ ocean spray works with nature every day to keep you healthy this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you

live from new york. today on the show, after nearly 20 years and 2,500 u.s. lives lost, america's war in afghanistan finally has an expiration date. >> it is time to end america's longest war. >> but what happens after the u.s. and nato troops pull out? after all of that blood and treasure, will afghanistan return to taliban control? will it become a terrorist haven once again? i'll have an exclusive interview with the president of afghanistan ashraf ghani, and then i'll talk to two former national security advisers, tom donilon and h.r. mcmaster. i'll also ask them about russia as its military drills and

masses on its border with ukraine. are they preparing for another invasion? also, is myanmar the new syria? the u.n. human rights chief said it may get justice as bad. clarissa ward has logged many days in syria and is just back from myanmar. she'll describe what she saw in that closed-off country. but first, here is my take. to govern is to choose a french prime minister once said and this week president biden made a difficult strategic choice. he announced a timeline for the withdrawal of american troops from afghanistan 20 years after they arrived there. for several years, the u.s. has been unwilling to make a choice in afghanistan, settling into a policy that was more punt than a strategy. biden should be commended for actually making a hard choice and not kicking the can down the road one more time.

was it the right choice? i believe so. let's recall that the united states has tried virtually every possible approach in afghanistan. initially after 9/11, it went in with a light footprint allying with local forces and after a few years that strategy was flawed because it gave the taliban the opportunity to regroup. under president obama, washington expanded coalition forces so at their peak numbers around 130,000. they attempted a comprehensive counterinsurgency policy to provide safety and win the hearts and minds of the locals. but while the search produced gained, they proved temporary. as u.s. forces withdrew, the taliban always bounced back. then donald trump announced a mini surge of his own. adding troops, but claiming that american soldiers would only fight the enemy and do no nation building. eventually he decided he had enough and withdrew some of

those troops, bringing them down to the current level of 3,500. to understand why the united states couldn't win, we should remember the dictum coined by henry kissinger in 1969 when describing the war in vietnam. the gorilla wins if he doesn't lose, the conventional army loses if it does not win. the question we don't ask enough is not why america failed, but why the taliban has succeeded. for the past 20 years, facing the world' most powerful army with the most advanced weaponry and intelligence in history, the ragtag taliban has survived an often prevailed. we spend a lot of time condemning the taliban for their fin nat cal ideology and their treatment of women, we call them terrorists. but we don't seem to ask despite all of that why have they done so well. mao once said that gorillas could succeed only if they could

move amongst the people as the fish swims in the sea. the taliban have managed to do that. extollers on the ground have found that ethnic identity and solidarity is key to understanding taliban success. far more important than military prowess or economic aid or even good government. many people identify with the taliban. the kabul government is often associated with the outsider, with foreigners. in higgs brilliant book, the accidental gorilla, david kill cullen recounts a battle in which local afghans join the taliban even though they were not aligned with the group. they simply felt they had to join the fight and fight against the outsiders. and no matter how much money and services the united states may provide, it remains the outsider. there are other reasons for taliban success as well.

it's difficult to think of a single case in history in which an insurgency was defeated when it had a sanctuary across the border and the taliban has enjoyed a haven in pakistan and help from the country's military and benefited from the massive corruption unleashed by the tens of billion dollars of american aid and military spending that has destroyed the afghan economy. the u.s. weakened the kabul government by insisting that it fight opium production, which for better or worse has been a staple agricultural product in provinces like helmand for centuries. ultimately, it comes down to a simple reality. an outside force that has an ambitious set of goals establishing a functioning democracy, ending the opium trade and ensuring success for women and cannot succeed without a powerful, competent and legitimate local partner. people will claim this that withdraw shows that the u.s. does not have the capacity to

stay the course and say that american troops should remain in afghanistan as they have in south korea and germany. but those forces are stationed to deter a foreign invasion, not to hold the country together. american soldiers have stayed in afghanistan twice as long as the soviets stayed there and longer than the u.s. did in vietnam. it is time for them to come home. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week, and let's get started. let's get right to my exclusive interview with the president of afghanistan, ashraf ghani. welcome back to the show, mr. president. >> it is a pleasure to be with you. >> when we've talked in the past, you have said you would support a positive peace in afghanistan but not what the taliban you said sometimes seems

to want, which is the peace of the grave. which one of these is likely following president biden's announcement of a u.s. withdrawal? >> the announcement has been a game-changer. because the unexpected for the region and for the taliban has happened. the announcement was not unexpected for me. we have been deliberating about this for two years. now, it is time for recalculation. for us it is a time of opportunity. for taliban and for pakistan, it is a moment of choice. will they opt to become a credible international stakeholder, with rules of the game for a peaceful part of asia and connectivity, or for opting

for chaos? equally for taliban, the major excuse that this is a war to get the international forces out of afghanistan is over. there is no religious justification left for the war. political settlement is a must. but the ball clearly is in the court of taliban and their supporters. >> it sounds like, mr. president, you support the president's announcement, or at least you think there could be a positive effect from that announcement. >> i respect the president's decision. i've always made clear on your show particularly that i never discussed numbers or whether the united states should stay long. a strategic decision has been

made. the implications of this, the operational level, the tactical level and restrategizing for the region, for the islamic world and at the national level is imperative. the context is radically changed. my style of working is that when context changes, my entire energy is focused on working in the new context, and i'm focused on the opportunities and i think the opportunities are real. >> during the previous administration, during the trump administration, when they were trying to reach a deal with the taliban, it would often be leaked to members of the press that you were the obstacle, that you were unwilling to share power with the taliban. was that true, and has that changed? >> it wasn't true. because i ran on a peace platform. i think it should be remembered that it was i who secured the first cease-fire in our history

in 2018. the question was who was going to own and lead the peace process? what we proposed to the trump administration two years ago is that if you want to withdraw, deal with us, the legitimate government of afghanistan, not with the taliban on that issue. they made choices and because of that they needed a figure to blame things upon. i was never the obstacle, and again, in preparation for the istanbul conference, i went to my nation and clearly indicated that i was willing to reduce my elected terms of office, but my condition was that a democratic succession, where the people of afghanistan would decide on the the succession. for me, it is the principle, not power. power is an instrument of service, not something personal.

>> when you think about the taliban going forward, do you imagine a national unity government? do you imagine they are simply going to seek a military conquest of kabul? what is your sense of what -- where will the taliban go from this? >> well, what i hope they will go for and what they're likely to go for are likely to be different things. what i'd like to -- is for them to seek -- seize the new context where a true national political settlement is made that integrates them within the government, within the society and within the economy, and that we form a government of peace for a brief period culminating in an election that is internationally supervised and

monitored, and in order to make sure that the wounds of the past 42 years, particularly past 20 years are healed, we'll need a discussion of a national compact and the preparation that, the justification and approval of any peace deal should take place in our historical institution where all walks of life are brought, and it is imperative that the taliban sit with their afghan sisters and brothers if that is what they consider us. >> next on "gps," when we come back, i'll ask president ghani about the future of women in afghanistan who had essentially no rights when american forces arrived in 2001. what happens when those troops leave?

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and we are back here on "gps" with the president of afghanistan is joining me exclusively. mr. president, let me ask you a question that is on the minds of many people in the event given u.s. forces withdrawing, given potential taliban resurgence, which is what happens to women in afghanistan? 20 years ago under the taliban they couldn't go to school, they could barely leave houses and couldn't work and women in afghanistan today is a different position. is there a danger of all of that being reversed? >> of course, there is a risk.

but the women of afghanistan i'm very proud of now speak for themselves, organize for themselves and have nation -- and have turned into a nationwide movement. if the taliban want to be stakeholders in the future, they need to recognize that women of afghanistan aspire to the type of freedom that existed during the time of the prophet peace be upon him. don't forget, the wife of the prophet, was one of the richest women on earth at that time. there is a culture of participation in commerce, in learning and literacy and others. so it is crucial that this game end. as long as i have the honor of serving afghanistan, every week, every day, you will see further steps for enhancing the role of the woman, in particularly the

education of the girls and their vocational abilities. the women of afghanistan, they have children whom i see regularly on presidential grounds, aspire to be presidents. they're pilots, they're ambassadors, they're ministers. the horizon is open to them. this would be one of the greatest injustices in terms of human rights in history if we don't respect this and consolidate it. >> let me ask you about the regional dynamic with u.s. forces withdrawing. reports suggests that pakistan has never really stopped supporting the taliban, that the taliban during the negotiations in doha, the taliban representatives flew back and forth from doha to pakistan, not

even bothering to pretend they were as they used to in the past. is pakistan going to allow an independent neutral afghanistan or are they likely to interfere and is that interference likely to be solidified by a very strong which is support? >> well, first of all, it is a moment of choice for pakistan. all its calculations have been wrong. verbally the leaders of pakistan all fortunately acknowledge that they do not want the taliban government in afghanistan, that they would like to see a peaceful, stable, democratic government in afghanistan. we are key to their prosperity. the rate of growth in pack r pakistan could enhance by 2%. in a stable and connected afghanistan, we have to work together. so there are two options. when, when, when.

connect to sent central asia through us, share in the joint prosperity through the partnership for peace, gain international capability and support and they're all in need of or opt for chaos. the country that would be most damaged by insecurity or a renewed civil war in afghanistan is pakistan. and in that case, it would be a lose, lose, lose proposition. >> it seems to me clear that pakistan has chosen to ally with china in the emerging bipolar order. has china decided that it will support pakistan unyieldingly? would china support a taliban offensive of the kind you just described? >> no. china is going to have 16 -- estimated 16% rate of growth. china, i believe, is not an

interventionist power. it does not want engage in military or proxy wars, and pakistan in terms of its foreign policy is hedging between china and other countries, because it is still, its reliance on the rest of the region is quite significant. pakistan can become an anchor of regional stability if it opts for peace in regional cooperation. the discourse of pakistan has changed. there was a security conference in islamabad where the talk is really significantly about harmony and cooperation. to expect that china, after the great covid reset, and the significant adverse impact will get involved in regional conflicts directly, i think it is remote.

furthermore, we have a lot of positive relationship with china, and the growth of china now is going to be the factor as is the growth of india for regional prosperity. all of us, i think, are strong stakeholders not to get involved in a war in afghanistan, we do not want a replacement in terms of seeking to replace the united states and nato with some form of patronage. we want to have multi-aligned policy where we are friends with everybody and not part of their quarrels, and hence our neutrality that will benefit everybody. >> thank you president ghani for that important conversation. for more of it go to cnn.com will you will hear president

ghani's eloquent message to america and specifically to the americans who have served in afghanistan over the last two decades. next on "gps," donald trump's national adviser h.r. mcmaster and barack obama's national security adviser tom donilon who disagree on afghanistan, and we'll also talk about russia and more. ♪ hey hey hey. ♪ goodbye. ♪ na na na na... ♪ hey hey hey. ♪ goodbye. ♪ na na na na ♪ na na na na... the world's first six-function multipro tailgate. available on the gmc sierra.

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moscow has amassed what secretary of state tony blinken this week called the largest concentration of russian forces on ukraine's border since 2014. that was the year when russia invaded ukraine and took crimea.

the u.s. and its allies worried about what moscow might be up to this time. u.s. army retired lieutenant general h.r. mcmaster joins me now. he was donald trump's second national security adviser and the author of "battlegrounds, the fight to defend the free world." general mcmaster, a pleasure to have you on. let me start with afghanistan, and let me ask you you've been skeptical of the attempts to make peace with the afghanistan and when donald trump tried to do it after you left as a munich-style appeasement. what do you think about president biden's plan for withdrawal? >> well i think it is an utter disaster and i think what is worth pointing out is that we're engaged in an extraordinary degree of self-delusion what i call strategic nas isism and assume that what we do is

decisive toward achieving a favorable outcome. and this self-delusion include this is idea that taliban wants to share power. the taliban is determined to reimpose the islamic emirate of afghanistan and we know the hell that would be because they did it because 1996 and 2001. the second element of self-delusion is there is a bold line between the taliban and other terrorists organizations. the taliban operates in an area that is a terrorist ecosystem that spans the afghanistan and pakistan border which makes it the geo-strategic and ideology centers against the fight against jihadist terrorists, and finally the idea that -- narcissistic idea, that the americans aren't here, let's stop fighting. it is worth pointing out, fareed, that we've lost no soldiers over the last 12

months. the afghans have lost over 4,000 of courageous soldiers and policemen trying to protect the freedoms they've enjoyed since 2001. i think that should count for something, and what is astounding and a moral travesty and strategic failure is that we're throwing them under the bus on the way out. we made concession after concession. we didn't insist on a cease-fire. we forced the afghan government to release 5,000 of some of the most heinous people on earth, and we keep talking about, well what more could the afghan government do for peace? how about hieba tolla -- and who has stepped up assassinations and mass murder attacks across the country? what about the taliban's role in effecting peace. it is an extraordinary reversal of morality, is what we're watching. and i think we saw it in the president's speech frankly, fareed, i think i saw it in your opening as well.

and we know already that in areas where the taliban has been able to regain control, that they're closing girls schools and flogging women publicly, and how long before they have mass executions in the soccer stadium again? it is a travesty that we'll look back on with shame. >> let me ask you, general, i asked president ghani whether he thought the taliban could take control of the country. this is in the web extra part of the interview. but his response if i can summarize was no, the afghan national army has been fighting 95% of the battle for the last few years, where we have a lot of support in the country, the taliban is not that popular and most importantly, unlike south vietnam, the u.s. and nato are not saying good-bye, they're going to continue to give us aid, and continue to give us intelligence support. so he seemed pretty confident that the kabul government could hold.

you seem more skeptical. >> i think if we do maintain that support, the kabul government can hold because people don't want to return to the taliban. think about what happened in afghanistan since 2001. this is another part of the story that i wish would receive more coverage. afghanistan has transformed since 2001. kabul has grown by orders of magnitude. in a country where maybe there were just a few phones because communication was so limited, everybody has a cell phone. it is the most open society in terms of freedom of the press and freedom of expression. now, of course, the taliban hates this idea. this is why they're murdering journalists and attacked the american university of afghanistan and gunned down young men and women who were trying to build a better future for their country. so of course they deserve our support. if we provide that support, i believe that they could hold on. but of course, what we'll see at the very least with the disengagement some of our very important combat support to afghans is the intensification

of the war and a return to violence on the potential of civil car from '92 to '96 which was devastating and created a refugee crisis of colossal scale and destabilized pakistan. that country has nuclear weapons so the stakes i think are extremely high and we're not talking about the war in a meaningful accurate way. we're engaging in this strategic narcism and self-delusion. >> general macmaster, thank you for that powerful intelligent critique. from donald trump's national security adviser to barack obama's. i'll talk to tom donilon about why he disagrees with general mcmaster on biden's afghanistan withdrawal.

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my next guest is tom donilon. he was president obama's

national security adviser. welcome. let me ask you, we've heard a lot about afghanistan from the point of view of national security, the president has to think about, is what is going on in afghanistan worth the continuation of american military presence there, or is president biden's decision correct? >> i think the decision is correct, fareed. i listened carefully to my friend's h.r. mcmaster's analysis, and i think it is a prescription for being at war with the taliban without end, with no end point. if you sit back and take a note and perspective of the president and you look at the global threat picture faced by the united states today, not 20 years ago, and you take into account what we have accomplished in afghanistan to address the al qaeda and isis threat, you would not have a significant military presence continue in afghanistan. the threat, the terror threat which is very real, and the al qaeda and isis are the principle

sunni threats that we face in the world, they disperse and it is not contained in a single geographic area. additionally, the president uniquely is charged with making decisions about where men and women of the united states military forces are to be put at risk. and i think in this case, to enter into a conflict without end, to continue to try to find an illusive set of conditions for full withdraw, i don't think is in the united states' interest, and it won't remain static. h.r. mcmaster said there hasn't been a troop kill the since february of 2020, during the negotiation and that won't remain static, though. in fact, i think if the united states made a decision and announced a decision to remain in a combat role, in a military deployed role in afghanistan you could see an escalation. and last i would say, fareed, we have the capability to deal with the threats that emerge from

afghanistan or might emerge from afghanistan. we have -- the capabilities that we've developed over the last 20 years are extraordinary with respect to intelligence and over the horizon military capabilities doctrine and weaponry, and i think we have the capability to deal with it should it arise. al qaeda does not have the capability to execute a external threat against the united states but bill burns said the other day in front of the congress that the united states would develop and we have the ability to develop the intelligence outlook to anticipate and contest al qaeda if it should try to reconstitute. and the mission, i think, has changed in terms of its focus to a diplomatic humanitarian economic mission. there is leverage in that case. so i think it is the right decision after 20 years of military operations. and there are limits at the end

of the day that we discovered with respect to what the united states military could accomplish with respect to the internal dynamics and conflicts in afghanistan so i think it is a realistic decision and to end where i started if you take the where i started if you take the lens back and you look at world and the opportunities and challenges that the united states has in the world today, you would not have -- you would not continue a military mission in afghanistan because you do have the capabilities to deal with the threat. >> let me ask you, tom, about another thing that -- a big thing that happened this week which is the russian massing of forces on ukraine, which happened at the same time the united states announced sanctions against russia. are we spiraling downwards to a possible russian invasion of ukraine? what do you think is going on? >> as you said at the top of segment, russians have amassed large a force as it had in 2014.

the scale and the scope is quite similar. now, unlike 2014, they've made no effort to hide this buildup. indeed they have promoted the buildup. it is not clear what russia's intentions are, whether it is try to intimidate, to extract concessions from the zelensky government with respect to ukraine, whether it's a show of force or an exercise, it's not routine, that's for certain. it's not clear what the purpose is of the buildup or whether it's a preparation for a military action. again they're not in any way trying to hide their build up so that would be i think you would probably bet against that but it is just not clear at this point. but what i will say is this, fareed, which is why it deserves close attention because of its scale, but also because the fact is that putin has shown a high

tolerance for reckless and risky behavior. whether it be the invasion of ukraine and the takeover of crimea or intervention in the middle east or 2020 election interference, putin has shown a high tolerance for risky behavior. so i think it bears close watching and we need to be clear about what the response would be by the united states and the world if, in fact, he engaged in a military action in and against ukraine which that would include i think a number of -- a number of expanded sanctions. i think continued and expanded support of defensive military weaponry for the ukrainians and other things, but it bears watching for sure. >> tom donilon, a pleasure to have you on. thank you, sir. next on "gps," will they do anything about the spiraling brutality in myanmar, which is only getting worse. i'll talk to clarissa ward who is in that country when we come back.

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. the u.n.'s human rights chief warned this week that myanmar today reminds her of syria at the beginning of its own horrific civil war. she points to the brutality, the spiraling violence, and most importantly, perhaps, the world community's feeble response to both conflicts. is it a fair comparison? will myanmar become the next syria? clarissa ward is cnn's chief international correspondent and the author of "on all front s," she was recently back from myanmar, she was granted access -- welcome, clarissa. >> thank you, fred. >> when you go into these kinds of circumstances it's

extraordinarily heroic but you are often surrounded by government minders and security, were you able to get -- was there any point at which you felt as though you were able to get a sense of how people on the ground in myanmar are reacting to this fairly brutal crackdown? >> well, our expectations were very limited. for exactly the reasons you say. we were surrounded by minders, a convoy of soldiers, we had plain clothes security officers filming our every move. we had translators, you name it, we had it. we didn't anticipate we would be really able to interact with ordinary people but we had this extraordinary moment where we finally were given permission just to shoot some video in a market, a simple, ordinary market, simple, ordinary people and within minutes of us taking out our camera, even though we were so clearly surrounded by security forces, one man flashed the three finger hunger games

salute. that salute has become the symbol of defiance against the military coup. and then he came up to us, i asked him why did you show us that gesture? and he said because we want justice. another man came up and said we're not frightened and another woman said we want democracy. we don't want to go back to the dark age and there was this profoundly humbling and moving moment where i suddenly heard the entire market was galvanized with the sound of people banging pots and pans. that's an old tradition to ward off evil spirits but it's become the signature sound of resistance in myanmar. and i was so struck by the extraordinary courage of people who were able to demand democracy and dignity, even standing right in front of the minders and guards. >> we do know the chinese and the russians have supported the military. what's striking to me is even the neighboring democracies, like india and indonesia, have

not raised any protests. it seems as though the military has the external support that they need, no real external pressure. >> and that's why people were so desperate to talk to us because there is a sense of crushing disappointment from the people in myanmar, that the international community is not able to act in concert and condemn universally what's happening and essentially put a stop to it. this is to be expected, many would say, of china and russia. we've seen them adopt this kind of a stance to stand string the u.n. security council before. but as you said it's those southeast nations, southeast asian nations that i think have also generated a huge amount of disappointment, people really wanting to see them come out and condemn the violence, condemn the coup. they're not seeing that, and that's exactly why they're losing hope in the process of the international community being able to do anything to remedy the situation.

>> i want to ask you about that comparison to syria, because one of the reasons that syria became so very bloody was that the regime and others exploited the many deep cleavages within syrian society between the whites and sunnis, the secularists. myanmar has lots of different groups, of course the -- do you imagine a downward spiral where it becomes all against all civil war. >> i can but not exactly for the reasons that you're describing. there's no question that actually the divisions were tried to be exploited. that appears to have backfired and they're not playing ball. but when i look at the scenes that i saw of ordinary people who are basically willing to risk everything, march into a

hail of bullets to demand democracy and to demand dignity and when i look at a regime that is essentially willing to kill its way into victory, to destroy its own country to protect its own interests, and then you also have the complexity of many different ethnic groups. and on top of that the sort of ineffectiveness of the international community standing on the sidelines wringing its hands, issuing statements and condemnations but not really being able to affect any forceful kind of robust action. that is what makes my stomach drop and my heart ache when i think of the potential for myanmar to devolve into a bloody civil war along the lines of syria. >> powerful and courageous reporting, clarissa ward, thank you so much. >> thank you. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week.

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hello, everyone, i'm fredricka whitfield. another night of mass shootings in america and the president, chief, medical adviser saying gun violence in this country is a public health emergency. last night's shootings bring the total number of mass shootings in the last month to 47, 47 cities and towns where americans have lost family members and friends to senseless violence. >> when you see people getting killed, i mean in this last month it's been horrifying