this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the show, the most dangerous place on earth. that is what the economist calls taiwan, as china has the island firmly in its sights.

is beijing bold enough to cross the straits and attack? i'll ask former defense secretary robert gates. >> the american jobs plan -- >> then a post-pandemic boom. with strong growth numbers, it seems the u.s. might be entering into one. will the rest of the world follow suit? i'll ask economic historian niall ferguson. >> this is the kind of event that only happens a couple of times a century, let's say. also, the far right in germany is on the rise, again. this troubling trend is mostly in reaction to a dire threat that never materialized. i'll explain. but first, here is "my take." the united states is entering a

post-pandemic era. this is happening primarily because of the one aspect of this pandemic that differentiates it from mostly all previous ones in history. the triumph of science. within a year of covid-19 outbreak, the world saw the emergence of several high-quality vaccines. this is truly breathtaking. a decade ago the scientific consensus was it took ten to 15 years and a lot of luck to produce a vaccine for a new disease. over half of the adult population in the united states has received at least one dose of the vaccine, daily infection rates are dropping fast almost everywhere as are hospitalizations. there are some states that even on some days are reporting zero covid deaths. there are still dangers, vaccination rates are slowing down and new variants are cropping up, yet even with those caveats in mind, we could look at america and imagine life after covid and the forecast is

mostly sunny. the most striking aspect of post-pandemic america is likely to be a big economic boom. unlike the '08 financial crisis, the pandemic paralysis will probably be followed by a sharp rebound. partly because of the differing nature of the crisis but because washington has flooded the economy with money. so both individuals and businesses have cash to spend. the last great pandemic, the 1918 influenza was followed by the roaring '20s. it's too soon to tell whether we'll see the optimism of that much growth. the most important is innovation. crises finds ways to adopt new technologies and cast away old practs. in america the ability of large parts of the economy to function and excel in the digital realm,

when the physical economy was broadly shut down, has surprised even tech toe-optimists. a salesperson told me i miss being able to meet with people in person. you lose something important. on the other hand, i have used the new technology to make literally ten times as many sale scores every week compared to before covid. it's opened up a whole new world for me. even governments are innovating. new york announced that sidewalk dining will become a permanent feature and abolish snow days for schools, replacing them with online school. strangely, children do not see this as productivity enhancing. we understand innovation mostly in hindsight. few predicted in the early 1990s that productivity would rise sharply because of the widespread use of information technology and nor did they

foresee it was taper off mysteriously a few years later. but at a micro level we're watching so many businesses and governments and people adapt to the covid crisis and abandon old ways and optimize for the future that productivity gains seem likely. add to that the possibility of massive new investments in science and technology from washington, and we could see a virtuous cycle. europe is one step behind the u.s. because the vaccine rollout became mired in bureaucratic problems. in many ways, looking like america stumbles in the first phase of the pandemic. now europe has gotten its act together. meanwhile it has made a far more consequential decision to borrow money backed by the continent's strongest economies, france and germany, and let all countries spend it on covid recovery. this suggests europe might soon look like america in its own second phase, marked by widespread vaccinations and a soaring economy. europe's bold fiscal innovation could also mean a stronger

european union for the future. the dark side of this picture right now is the developing world. covid is ravaging india, and it may also surge in places that so far have been largely spared including much of africa. but even then, it is still possible to imagine benefits. the crisis has jolted india to its core, shedding a harsh light on the country's sprawling, corrupt and badly run government. the country has flourished not because of the public sector, but because of the rise of a dynamic and efficient private sector. the pandemic is a wake-up call that might force real government reforms, particularly in public health, which could then trigger change in other dysfunctional sectors like education. as it searches for growth and it faces challenges in borrowing, india is already enacting long-delayed economic reforms. another sign that india might

bounce back is the stock market which has been stunningly resilient in the face of the covid catastrophe. i'm trying to look at the bright side of a terrible situation. but there are real grounds to be optimistic, that as grim the pandemic has been, it could open up progress around the world. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week. and let's get started. ♪ >> amidst the u.s. withdrawal from afghanistan, the horrific attack occurred yesterday in kabul. a blast at a high school where girls were being educated killed more than 50 people, wounded more than 100. the taliban has denied responsibility for the blast. president biden has said the pullout won't be delayed by violence or anything else. all troops will be out by september 11th. my first guest today, robert

gates, served as director of central intelligence under h.w. bush and secretary of defense under george w. bush and president obama. he's the author of "exercise of power" which is freshly out in paperback. welcome, secretary gates. >> thank you, fareed. it is good to be with you. >> let me use that horrible blast in afghanistan as a way to ask this question about afghanistan, the decision has been made to withdraw. the taliban have been gaining ground really for years now. they have outlasted the united states. is there a way you think for the kabul government to stay in power as u.s. forces withdraw, they're already down to a few thousand, or should we be thinking about a kind of inevitable taliban takeover or

partial takeover? >> fareed, i think that all of the possible outcomes in -- or endings in afghanistan, a happy one is probably the least likely. i think the only chance that the government in kabul has is if the united states and our allies continue a strong stream of economic and military assistance to them. you know, the najibullah government installed by the soviets lasted for three years after the soviets pull all of their troops out but only because of a continuing flow of assistance from moscow. it was when the soviet union collapsed and that flow of assistance ended that the najibullah government fell. so i think the only chance that the kabul government has is to have this continuing flow of help from the u.s. and our allies. but, you know, a big part of the

problem is the corruption of that government and the perception on the part of a lot of afghans that it is corrupt and no commitment to that government. now there are many, many young afghan men who have given their lives to try and protect that government. so it is not a lack of courage on the part of their military. but it is the lack of credibility of the government particularly in the countryside that is a problem. but as i said, without assistance, i'm very pessimistic. >> you said in your last book "duty" that joe biden has been wrong on everything, on every major foreign policy issue and i noticed in interview with david ig ignatius, you said you'd

wished you had amended that to say that in the obama administration -- was joe biden wrong, would just keeping a few thousand troops make much of a difference? >> well, one of the things that has been lost in the discussions is the fact that the option put forward by the then vice president would have added another 20,000 troops, 10,000 for counterterrorism and 10,000 for training the afghan security forces. so the difference between the proposal put forward by the military and the one put forward by the vice president was, in fact, about 10,000 or 20,000 troops, 100,000 versus 80,000. so it wasn't like he was arguing

to go down to 10,000 or 15,000 troops. i think there is a misunderstanding of what was actually on the table at that time. >> let me you ask about taiwan. you've seen "the economist" cover the most dangerous place on earth. there is to question that tensions are rising. but i'm not sure i entirely understand why and who is responsible for this. what do you think is going on with taiwan, and do you think the biden administration is handling it properly? >> well, first of all, i think that they are handling it properly at this point. i think in all honesty that the more aggressive approach of president xi jinping is the primary problem here. since he became the leader in china in 2013, the chinese have been far more aggressive in the south china sea in their military exercises and bringing their planes and their warships

into the area around taiwan. and asserting claims against not just taiwan, but a variety of countries that border on the south china sea. we have during the obama administration, we conducted very limited number of freedom of information -- freedom of navigation exercises in the south china sea. we became more aggressive in response to the chinese during the trump administration. and those exercises have continued under president biden. but i think -- i think xi jinping has decided that bringing hong kong and taiwan, bringing china into one china's integral parts is one of the objectives of his policy and his time in power. i think he sees this as his legacy.

he's already moved against hong kong. so i think that the only thing that will work here is -- is for it to be clear that there is potentially a very high cost for china in trying to militarily take taiwan. and i personally believe the odds of an intentional takeover, a military attack on taiwan, at least for the foreseeable future, are actually pretty low. the consequences are just too catastrophic for china if the u.s. reacts. and they can't know how the u.s. will react. so i think that there are a number of other ways that china has of bringing pressure to bear on taiwan to ensure that it doesn't declare independence and that is comes eventually comes back to china. i think there is a risk of a

di divertant clash of an incident that spirals out of control. that is always a danger. we don't have any kind of direct of hotline for china that we did for the soviets. we don't have agreements on how to deal with incidents at sea. so i worry about those things. and when i was secretary, we opened a direct telephone link between my office and the office of the minister of defense in china. but in truth, that person has no power and sort of the phone will ring and essentially in an empty room. so i worry about taiwan. mainly because of the uncertainties and the risk of somebody taking -- of their being a miscalculation. >> the book is "exercise of power. secretary gates, always a pleasure >> thanks, fareed. >> next on gps, saying india may have 1 million covid deaths by august 1st.

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neutrogena® more than 4,000 deaths and 400,000 new infections, those are yesterday's official figures that show how severely covid-19 is ravaging india. the real figures may never be known, but one doctor told cnn he estimates actual deaths are five times higher. joining me now is chair of global public health of the

university of edinburgh school. devi, people have heard so much about this so i think that it is fair to say it is worse than it looks, it hasn't hit rock bottom yet. you cannot do a lockdown in a country like india because nobody -- they don't have the money to give people covid relief. what can the india government do at this point, is there a hope, is there a strategy that could be pursued? >> well, i think right now the focus has to be on breaking these chains of transmission in countries like in estates in britainan, we've had lockdowns and we can't do that in india so their looking at testing and struggling to get people tested for covid-19, encouraging people to change their behavior in small ways, avoiding mass gatherings and we've seen the political rallies and vaccines, just trying to get jabs into arms as quickly as possible. oxygen, building up beds and hospitals and people dying

because they can't get access to care. these are the emergency moves that should have been done months ago but now we need them more on ever. >> when you look at situation in india, what i'm struck by is you see people die of non-covid related diseases because the whole health care system has collapsed and that includes kids. so it feels like there is almost two crises, the covid crisis and the non-covid disease crisis, right? >> exactly. outbreaks are like black holes, they suck in and leave very behind. we've seen this with ebola in west africa. and people struggle to understand that covid itself wouldn't kill children in small, tiny numbers but if the health system collapses you'll have children dying from things like wheezing, asthma, pneumonia or diarrhea because they can't get the basic medical care they need because there's not a doctor or nurse or medical bed available

for them in a hospital. >> how much of this is because of new variants that are more infectious or more resistant to any kind of drugs. >> it plays a part. it is not the whole story. india has very poor health systems so already they're at breaking point and layer something on top of it and the whole system crumbles. but the variant in india is more transmissible than the wild type, the original one. it is similar to what we saw in britain over the christmas period with b-117 which is more transmissible and it became hard to suppress this because it could jump much quicker between people, and that is what we're seeing in india, in nepal, pakistan, bangladesh, and they have a new variant 20% to 50% more transmissible which means your curve goes so much faster. >> you describe the number of things that the india government needs to get right.

the vaccine roll out, oxygen, getting testing and tracing system in place. is it fair to say on none of these it is doing particularly well right now? >> well, i think we have to say first there are certain states which are outperforming. so if we look at carela. now it is managing to keep afloat. but overall there is a lack of you would say logistical support and in this kind of crisis you almost need a military like top down operation to come in and manage and build up the resources that you need and we're not seeing that. we're seeing the absence of a larger strategy which is the ground of people going from hospital to hospital, not finding oxygen and having social unrest because there are family members saying we can't get care and at this stage it comes down to logistics and governance more than anything else and having it taken seriously and communicating that to people and trying to get all of the pieces in place to make the system run.

>> when you look at what is going on outside of india, it is spilling over into places like bangladesh, but more globally, is india the canary in a coal mine that outside of the developing world, the united states, europe, japan, this is -- things could get bad. where should we be looking and preparing for another outbreak? >> yes, well right now it is like two pandemics because richer countries are getting a handle on pandemics, there is a sense of euphoria, we are over the worst, the deaths plummeting but this will still get worse in other countries. brazil has been badly hit but also argentina and chile and they're struggling with this in terms of deaths. there are increasing really rapidly. and africa some say because of the more limited connectivity

has been behind. but there is a real warning here to those countries of what is ahead of them if this variant comes in and if it gets seeded in the community and if it takes off because they don't have the health services to take the patient load if enough people become infected. >> devi sridhan, always a pleasure to talk to you. we learn so much. >> thank you. >> next on "gps", niall ferguson explains how globalization helped covid-19 quite literally fly around the world when we come back. and offers personalized cleaning suggestions for a clean unique to you and your home. roomba and the irobot home app. only from irobot.

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work and many fears jobs were added in april than expected but the broader u.s. economy seems to be bouncing back strongly. gdp was up 6.4% in the first quarter of the year. after growing by 4.3% in the last quarter of 2020. so will the rest of the world's nations have similarly supercharged recoveries? what are the legacies of covid? joining me now is the great economic historian niall ferguson, his new book just out is called "doom the politics of catastrophe." welcome, niall. >> good to be with you, fareed. >> so how would you characterize from a global perspective, the economic recovery or nonrecovery now underway around the world? >> well, historically pandemics have had very different economic impacts from what we've seen in our time. if you go back to comparably

sized global pandemic, the 1957-58 asian flu as it was then called, you could barely see its economic impact in the u.s. data and that is because life went on. there was excess mortality. but there were no lockdowns, schools and workplaces stayed open. what we did was pretty much unprecedented in the sense that we were able to confine really large numbers of people in their homes for long periods of time and shut down big parts of the economy. and i think one reason that that is unprecedented is that previous generations didn't have the incident. not many in 1957 could have worked from home. so having shut down significant parts of economy, back around a year ago, we then did enormous offsetting fiscal and monetary expansion to prevent a manmade depression from happening. now with vaccinations rapidly being adopted in the developed world, we're seeing the kind of v-shaped recovery that many

economists talked about a bit prematurely last year. the question of course is does this v overshoot and do you end up with overheating or on the basis of the jobs report that just came out, is there going to be some kind of stalling of recovery because people aren't, in fact, rushing back to work, back into employment in the way that economists have been expecting. >> let's talk about the legacies. because i think your book touches on these in very interesting ways. i want you to know what you think is going to happen to the global economy, to globalization, to all of the trade and travel had a that has characterized the world. you point out something very interesting in the book. you say in the 19th century science almost kind of conquered these kind of epidemics with new cures and treatments, but simultaneously to the science was the advance of globalization which meant that everything was spreading much faster.

so now are we going to see a decrease in globalization that feels kind of permanent? >> it is one of the things that makes a straightforward progressive optimistic narrative of history fail a bit. because as we were advancing in the 19th century, in science and understanding the nature of contagious disease, we were simultaneously making ourselves more vulnerable and that was even more true in the early 21st century when we were making scientific breakthroughs but we've never seen such volumes of traffic. and the fact this pandemic coincided with chinese new year and people were on direct flights to wuhan to cities like new york and san francisco until the final admission in beijing there was a serious problem. so i think this teachers us an

important thing, and that is is that globalization has to be managed and it has to have circuit breakers . a key theme of my last book, "the square in the tire," explain about half of every contagion, the other half is the pathogen itself. one of the lessons of globalization must be that you can't build a network so optimized and so fragile that it can transmit another pathogen around the world in just a few days. we got off lightly. this is not the most lethal virus, than the 1918 virus. so we need to regard this as a grim warning to us as globalization has its upside just like the incident has all kind of benefits but they also have the down side risks. >> you say it is going to be very difficult to predict the next crisis and that countries that try to prepare for a specific crisis generally prepare for the wrong one.

but that the real lesson is don't be stumped specifically, be generally paranoid. what do you mean? >> well, it is not just about the countries that did really well in the last year or a bit, taiwan, south korea, to an extent israel, though it had a bad outbreak last year, countries that for very obvious reasons are very generally paranoid and worried about neighbors and there are a number of ways in this china could come at taiwan and i think that is why they were so quick on the draw when they heard about a coronavirus in china. i think they disbelieved that there wasn't human-to-human transmission. so i think it is better to be generally paranoid, to be aware that disaster could take multiple forms than to be like most of the western democracies, that were on paper very well prepared had pandemic

preparedness plans up the wazoo 36 pages here, huge power point there and these plans didn't work when there was actually a pandemic. so i think we have a mindset which loves bureaucratic precision. let's anticipate the disaster and meticulously prepare for it. unfortunately you can't do that for all of the possible disasters, and if you get the wrong disaster, you'll me in public disarray, because it happened in the u.k. and european countries and the u.s. >> the book is "doom," always a pleasure to have you on. >> thanks, fareed. next on gps, we'll talk about american politicals in the 2020s and the hollywood murder most from the 1960s. stay with us. jake tapper is next. it drives you. and it guides you. to shine your brightest. ♪ as you charge ahead. illuminating the way forward.

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union", he's an author of novels and non-fiction. the latest is "the devil may dance." i have to tell you, it is irritating to see you do so many things so well. >> that is how i feel about you. that is how i feel about you. but thank you. >> let me ask you about what is going on in the republican party right now. this battle to oust liz cheney. how significant is it? >> it is very significant, because what it really shows is an allegiance to a lie. and an attack on liz cheney for her failure to display fealty to that lie. the voting records are very clear. congresswoman liz cheney is far more conservative than elise stefanik who will probably release her. liz cheney voted with trump and his policy items far more often than did stefanik. the only issue here is whether

cheney is willing to lie and that is where the house republican party is and it is a bigger struggle going on within the republican party and sadly i think it is going to keep going for a few years. >> you know, barack obama said about the trump phenomenon, the takeover the party, the fever has to break. it doesn't feel like it is breaking any time soon. >> no. and it did seem, though, for a minute after the insurrection, when you had lindsey graham and kevin mccarthy separating themselves from trump, it did feet like a minute for there was going to be a separation. i asked adam kinzinger from illinois, how many of your colleagues believe this lie. kinzinger is very outspoken against it. he thinks about five of them truly believe the nonsense about ballots coming in on bamboo paper from china to arizona and

only about five means it which means there are dozens of republicans going along because they're terrified of losing election and their voters and that is just not -- in addition to that is not adherence to facts and truth, that is not leadership. leaders are supposed to stand up for what is right and what they know to be true. >> >> you said that you didn't want to have people on your show who were going to just lie to you. you were thinking about this issue in particular. >> yeah. >> you have no problem having conservative republicans on show. >> no we just did. on the "state of the union" this morning we have had the governor of utah, spencer cox. i have conservative republicans on show all of the time. moderate republicans, whatever. the issue isn't about party. the issue is about lies. it is about if you are willing to promote a lie to the public about the election, something so fundamental to our democracy,

then what else are you willing to lie about? and it is not -- i don't have a policy, it is just a philosophical question i'm asking. i haven't booked since the insurrection or even before that since the election anybody trafficking in these lies. and other people have. and i don't fault them. i'm just saying philosophically if you know these people are willing to lie about something like this, then what do you owe -- what do we owe our viewers in terms of whether or not we could counts on these people that say things patently false. i'm not talking about opinions or takes on things or priorities. i'm just saying that we know this election was not stolen, and to say otherwise is a disservice to the american people. >> i want to talk about the book, which is really terrific. so you weave in, it is not pure fiction, you weave in a lot of real history. there is robert kennedy, there is sinatra.

why did you write it that way rather than just make everything up from -- >> well, because i heard the story and it is a true story that in 1962 president kennedy was going out to los angeles to give a speech and frank sinatra that had done so much to help get him elected wanted president kennedy to stay in his compound at rancho mirage, an hour or two out of los angeles. and at the same time robert kennedy was waging a war on organized crime and was aware that sinatra was friends with at least one major mobster, sam j giancana. so this was a true story. and kennedy, robert kennedy had to decide am i going to let my brother the president stay at a compound where a mobster has slept and that is a real story. and i thought it was fascinating and none of the players are still around so i thought it would be a perfect setting for the next book in my series, so it is called "the devil may dance" and it comes out on tuesday.

>> the extraordinary thing, and it is really terrific book, what is most extraordinary in order to keep true to the fiction you made up and wrote a sinatra song. >> i did. that is the "the devil may dance." it is a fictitious sinatra song. and the lawyers when they went through the book, if you have ever quoted any song lyrics in your books, i don't think so. you're only allowed to quote one line because otherwise you'll get sued by the label demanding money. and so the lawyers were mad at me. they said you quoted entire sinatra song. you know we can't do that and it is weaved into a scene where sinatra is singing a song and i said it is not a song and nobody could sue so i was flattered by their outrage. >> you would read this book and soon spotify will have him singing sinatra songs. >> that part is not true. and that is a disservice to our viewers in every way thank you, jake tapper.

>> thanks. >> the rise of far right violence in germany. a chilling prospect, i will explain what is happening when we come back.

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. and now for the last look. on tuesday, germany's interior minister made a disturbing announcement. far right crime in his country hit a record high last year with more than 23,000 incidents. a university of oslo study in europe shows that over the past 30 years germany has had the most far right terrorist incidents on the continent by far. in the most troubling recent incident near frankfurt, a far right gunman killed ten people in two bars last february. politically motivated crimes like that were up by an alarming

28%. with elections four months away authorities warn it's a particularly unstable time. they worry that far right groups will use frustration with repeated lockdowns and a botched vaccine rollout to stir up resentment toward the government and encourage sedition. all this comes at a time of major political transition. after 15 years of angela merkel influence at the helm, germany will be electing a new chancellor come september. the record breaking year germany just experienced is the latest in a years long upward trend and that trend is made even more striking by the fact that it seems to have emerged in reaction to an imaginary crisis. official data shows that far right crimes saw their first major spike in 2015. the year merkel decided to open her country's borders to a large number of migrants, many fleeing war torn syria. eventually, over 1.2 million

people, amounting to 1.5% of the german population, were allowed to settle in the country under that policy. and that fueled intense anxieties about how out of control immigration could lead to integration problems and islamist terrorism. but for all the far right fears about impending doom, today most of those 1.2 million refugees have already assimilated nicely into german society. as thomas rogers wrote in the new york review of books last month the migrants from that period have integrated faster than previous refugee influxes. approximately half of them have jobs and another 50,000 are taking part in apprenticeship programs. the federal education minister stated that more than 10,000 are enrolled in university. three quarters of them now live in their own apartment or house, and feel welcome or very welcome in germany. indeed, german institutions and german society have both been

quite welcoming, as rogers writes german companies created purposeful jobs for the newcomers, and over half of germans say they have volunteered or donated in some capacity to help the migrants make a new home in their country. the terrorism concerns prove to be massively overblown. an analysis by the french think tank found that since 2015 germany has experienced only a fraction of the islamist terror attacks that france has while taking in far more migrants. the german public seems to have noticed. polls show that the biggest rivals to merkel's political heirs will be the pro asylum green party. wul the alternative for germany party is at the back of the pack. let's hope that germans realize that while they were constantly warned about islamist terror the violence that materialized came from the far right, and is still on the rise even now.

thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. onstar, we see them. okay. mother and child in vehicle. mother is unable to exit the vehicle. injuries are unknown. thank you, onstar. ♪ my son, is he okay? your son's fine. thank you. there was something in the road... it's okay. you're safe now. we look up to our heroes. idolizing them. mimicking their every move. and if she counts on the advanced hydration of pedialyte when it matters most... ...so do we. hydrate like our heroes.

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right now the winner of the kentucky derby on the verge of being disqualified over drugs. but the trainer for medina spirit isn't going down without a fight. plus, gunshots in times square, a police officer carries a wounded child to safety as the manhunt intensifies for the gunman. a coronavirus vaccine for 12 to 15-year-olds could become a reality as early as this week. i'll talk live with one of the doctors wh