a little preparation will make you and your family safer in an emergency. a week's worth of food and water, radio, flashlight, batteries and first aid kit are a good start to learn more, visit safetyactioncenter.pge.com all rise for the midterms! i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia. historically, voter turnout for midterm elections is a big drop-off from presidential years. usually, the more motivated voters are those from the party not occupying the white house. in midterms, since george w. bush second term the party of the incumbent president has lost an average of more than 40 seats in the senate and house combined. and all of the republicans need is a handful of congressional seats and one senator to put

kevin mccarthy and mitch mcconnell back in control of the house and senate respectively. the inesta. the release of any final report would coincide with the beginning of midterm campaign season. there remains, however, another midterm intangible that cannot be avoidable by either party. two cases will be heard this fall by the supreme court which has been reshaped by three trump nominated justices. rulings will come on two of the most hotly contested issues in american politics. abortion and gun rights. here is a brief primer. the abortion cases seeks to overturn a fifth circuit court block of a mississippi state law enacted in 2018 which banned

abortions after 15 weeks. the roe versus wade precedent protects between 23 and 24 weeks for a fetus. the mississippi case would reduce that time line by about two months. not to be outdone this week texas governor greg abbott signed a law that would ban abortion after six weeks. take a look at this map. it shows the results of a "the new york times" analysis as to where abortion rights would be restricted if roe were to be overturned. then there is the gun case. here are the precedent at issue is justice scalia's 2008 opinion in d.c. versus hellor that citizens have the rights to gun ownership at home. lower courts say the rights are not unlimited to allow for some regulations. now the court will rule on a new york law challenged in the case. new york state rifle and pistol

association versus -- a need to carry a concealed handgun outside the home. in other words, the court is being asked to say the concealed carry is a part of the second amendment. the supreme court takes the summer off. these two cases will be argued in the fall and decisions will come in the spring or early summer of 2022. should the court adopt conservative positions? that might remind republican base of the importance of white house control and spur a gop turnout which retakes the house and senate. or it could motivate women and the young which would encourage democrats. there is one more consideration. ive rulings on abortion and guns might convince the republicans and democrats to shed any reluctant they have about expanding the size of the supreme court so as to encounter the imbalance will likely continue beyond the biden years. the president created a commission to study potential

changes to the court in april. that commission met for the first time just this week. they are supposed to deliver a report to the president in about six months. or just about when the abortion and gun cases will have been argued. i want to know what you think. go to smerconish.com and answer this survey question. will supreme court decisions in 2022 help republicans, democrats, or neither. joining me now, is "the lead" and "state of the union" best selling author is jake tapper. hi new novel "the dwell may dance." continues to follow his first novel. charlie goes to hollywood in the early 1960s. i love the book and ask you about it in a moment, jake. what do you make of my thought supreme court to put its thumbprint on the midterm elections? >> i think you're spot on.

everything you said. i would say there is also an argument that it will help republicans in some states and help democrats in other states. the idea that these cases, especially i have to say, especially i think the abortion case. there really does seem to be a majority on the court, at the very least the fact they are taking up the case suggests there are five justices willing to reconsider the precedent set by roe v wade. i think it's pretty clear five justices are ready to do that right now. it's also possible that this will be good to motivate democrats in, for example, virginia, to get the women and young voters and progressives out to vote in virginia. and in other places, it might be good for republicans. it does reaffirm, for example, this is probably the longest lasting legacy of the trump

years for good in the eyes of conservatives. the idea he got these three justices on court and roberts is a swing justice, it's a 5-4 court if you put roberts with the liberals so it's really a 6-3 court so that will reaffirm to conservatives we need to keep fighting for this, we are winning. >> one wonders if these events could overturn the, i think, traditional path which has been that republicans and conservatives much more consider this issue when they vote for presidents of the united states than do democrats and pro progr progressives. >> exactly. i mean, this has been more of a motivating force for conservatives, for republicans in the past. but, right now, because republicans have been so singularly focused on the supreme court and the judicial nominees. remember, this is why mitch

mcconnell and others went along with trump for so long because he let them do what they wanted to do with judges. i think it is entirely possible that this will have the effect of motivating women, motivating young people, motivating progressives because it's true that abortion rights really do change in the balance. it's not chicken little, the sky is falling. it really could happen. look. i'm not supreme court analyst, but it looks to me what i've read of these justices there are five photos to confirm the mississippi law. if that law is affirmed as constitutional, the ban on abortion after 15 weeks with punishments for physicians if they violate it, what is to say that greg abbott's law in texas that you refer to, which essentially bans abortion. they say they ban it after six weeks. but a lot of women don't know that they are pregnant before six weeks into a pregnancy.

it essentially bans abortion. what does that mean? does a ruling in favor of the mississippi law set a precedent that the texas law can go forward? >> jake, you had me at page one. it's the rat pack with sam giacono in tow to the forest lawn. i'm halfway through. i'm thinking where the hell do you come up with this stuff is in the weaving in of the fact and fiction really says a lot what is going on in that imagination of yours. >> well, thank you. first of all, can i just say you are exactly the kind of person that would love this book. i watch your show and when i'm in philly, i listen to you back in the day. so i know how you think. and, yeah, look. a lot of the stuff is just true, right? the inspiration for the book was i had heard this story and it was an accurate story.

sinatra worked his heart out for kennedy in 1960 he and the rat pack and expected kennedy would stay with him in california when he came out as president. sinatra started having his ranch state adding rooms and helipad. this is all on your sweet spot. the sinatra and kennedys. attorney general robert kennedy was going after organized crime says to himself, can i really have my brother stay in an estate at a compound where mobsters have slept? and that was the dilemma that attorney general kennedy had. do i offend one of the biggest stars in the planet who helped get my brother elected? or do i let my brother sleep in a bed that maybe a mobster has slept with -- slept in. that is a true story. all i did was send charlie and

margaret in there and let my imagination go wild based on all of the characters were just sitting right there to have fun with. >> so you've now had enormous success with fiction and nonfiction. i'm thinking, of course, of the outpost the great rod lori. good match for you in bringing that to the screen. which is more fun? >> without question, fiction is more fun. nonfiction, the story "the outpost" this afghanistan outpost and the u.s. soldiers, the true story, that is more meaningful. that was, you know, to this day the most meaningful professional experience of my life, telling those stories and bringing their voices to the book and then to the screen because it was an a tale that nobody knew at the time. now people know it better because of the book and even more so baecause of the movie.

i think it's on netflix and i tunes. fiction is more fun because the stakes are so much lower. >> i'm really enjoying the book. as i said, i'm halfway through. i wish you continued success. >> thank you so much. continued success to you, too, my friend. >> jake's new book "the devil may dance." what are your thoughts? go to my facebook and i'll read responses throughout the program. from youtube. here is one comment. great observation, eric. so it goes, right? if the court having its say on abortion and guns short-term benefit to the republicans, democratic responses to expand the court, you're right, it sets up a dynamic where in 2024 you could then see the republican response. make sure you're my website and answering this week's survey question. i think we got an indication what jake thinks that this will be pretty significant for the 2022 election. here is the question.

ahead, they got the winner. but, man, not the margin. a new analysis finds the 2020 polls were the worst in 40 years. . leader of the research group joins me for a postmortem to discuss what the heck went so wrong. according to strategic visions annual survey in 2020, people who drive the ford f-series truck tend to lean to the right. over 44,000 preorders in 48 hours and the company stock on the rise, has the automaker's big bet on electric and climate just paid off?

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presidential election missed the mark at historic levels. national presidential polls saw the highest level of error in 40 years. overstating support for democratic nominee joe biden 3.9 percentage points in the national peculiar votes of the final two weeks of the campaign according to a task force with the american association for public opinion research. it's a group that consists of experts from renowned institutions and major media networks, including cnn, gallup, vanderbilt, university, university of pennsylvania and cornerbacks and the chair of the task force joshua clinton yojoi me now. a vanderbilt professor. does this error ever benefit democratic candidates? when you look at 1980, ronald reagan was the one under valued. in 2016 and 2020, it was donald trump. does it ever go the other way? >> yes.

so in 2012, for example, the polls overstates support for romney relative to obama. what we saw this time was pretty unique. never before had see seen the polls so systemically, regardless of whether the poll. this is pretty unique different from what sef seen in the past. >> in other words, it's not just in 2020, it was not just the top of the ticket. it was something that could be said about republicans generally or democrats generally? >> no. that's right. the errors were actually larger as you got farther down the ticket, right? everyone was thinking the democrats, for example, were going to pick up seats in the house and that did not materialize. everyone thought the senate contests would be closer than they were. a lot of attention is paid at the presidential level, it was far more consequential for the down ballot races going into

2020. >> in 2016, the sort of postmortem said there weren't a sufficient number of individuals considered who had less formal education, or there was the additional thought that maybe there were late breakers for donald trump. what is the explanation as to why there was this four-point miss in 2020? >> that is a super great question. unfortunately, i wish i had a good answer for you. but we are still working on that. for example, in 2018, the polls are pretty good. you know? much better than they were in 2016. we are still trying to unpack exactly what went down. but, you know, our gut tells us that, you know, politics has changed. like, everything now is politicized whether or not you get a vaccine and whether or not you wear a mask. it seems nowadays whether you choose to take a poll is increasingly a political app when you have president trump talking about voter suppression polls and fake polls is not beyond the realm of possibility to imagine that some people and particularly the republican and trump supporters may be less likely to take polls than

democrats who are very eager to talk about how they are going to support president biden and that will be a challenge for polling. we can't prove it yet but something everyone is working on to figure out what is going on and how can we make it more accurate going forward. >> maybe it was harder to reach trump voters or maybe trump voters lied. and when i say that, i mean because he was looked at with such disfavor, right? they didn't want to admit to some stranger who calls their house that they are voting for the politically invecorrect guy >> we don't know whether they were talking to pollsters in line or not bothering to pick up the phone or responding to those surveys. like trying to figure out whether there is differences in the republicans who took polls and republicans who didn't take polls, you know, that is an issue that is facing pollsters. part of the problem is like we still don't know what the 2020 electorate will look like.

it's hard to know who didn't take the polls if you don't know who took the polls. true across the board. to be clear, like, this isn't just an impact of industry or media. republican and democrat polsters made similar errors. you think how consequential that is, republicans are playing defense for the u.s. house of representatives because they thought they were going to lose seats based on their polling. if they actually had a better sense of what they were doing in terms of what the polls were saying, it's not inconceivable they could have retaken the house if they were playing offense. this is a miss. a polling that across the board and affected everybody, including the political parties and has really consequential for how campaigns strategy played out in 2020. >> one other element. very important. because this story was broken by "the wall street journal" and former president trump then responded to it and said essentially, ah-ha! i told you so! this was all voter suppression, meaning that it was deliberate

to hold down his electorate. they were led to believe he had no shot to win and it was all by design. did you see any evidence of that? >> no. i mean, not really. in fact, if you think about 202 2016, people were worried perhaps the polls had sectretar clinton up by so much and had her supporters to support third-party candidates. a lot of interpretation but not evidence how it affects polls and particularly not pollsters intentional trying to suppress votes. they are just trying to get a sense of what the electorate was looking like and that is true across the board. >> you know, a final thought, if i may. in this technologically advanced world in which we live, it's kind of remarkable that the polling seems to get worse in many respects. you get the final word. >> no. i think that is right. used to be that everyone took polls and polls moyer accurate. part of the problem we are all

on so many devices now and it's very hard to reach individuals. as we get more fragmented in terms how we consume news and interact with one another, that makes it more challenging to try to figure out how to reach the right balance of individuals and make sure you get a representative sample to kind of what is going forward thank you so much for having me on the program, michael. >> thanks, dr. clinton. i appreciate your analysis. let's check in on your comments. katherine, what do we have? this is from twitter. the absurdest contrarian, love your name. i've had this conversation with trafalgar group. how did they come closer in this circle? they say because they try to focus on, you know, the network of people. you don't call up and say how

are you voting? you call up and you ask about the family and the people surrounding them and they are more inclined to answer your question that way. go to smerconish.com and answer this week's survey question. here it is. ahead, facebook planning to roll out a version of instagram for kids under the age of 13. but with teen depression and suicide rates rising over the last decade, members of congress and 44 states attorney general are taking a stand. can they stop mark zuckerberg? what can we learn about gen-z amidst the pandemic? can ford convince conservatives to be ecofriendly? if they can, will this be a monumental turning point for green energy? my next guest is the chief

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the f-150 has been the best selling vehicle in the united states for more than 40 years. ford sell more than 1 million f-series trucks a year raking in more than $40 billion annually. it's so popular either you've got one or you know somebody who does, right? is the demand there for all-electric model? according to an automotive

research firm's 2020 survey about political tendency and the car you drive maybe not a surprise f-150 is a top five among republicans and democrats. will mainstream america embrace an electric truck? first 48 hours of the public reveal on wednesday, ford had almost 45,000 reservations. will the truck be the tipping point? will this vehicle cause green energy to skip the culture wars? here to discuss is linda zang, ford's chief engineer behind the ford electric game changing f-150 lightning truck. i love your personal story. batman, knight ridder and mcgyver all having played a role in your career development. how? >> well, those are my childhood favorites in terms of tv shows, and they all had really good automobiles inside. whether it's kit or the knight ryder and also problem solving.

i really loved those shows and that is where kind of my passion for the automobile came from in a way. and this lightning is just so exciting and i'm so glad to be here to share that with you. >> linda, i showed the footage a moment ago of the new electric pulling a million pounds. what i didn't show was my favorite part. i'm going to run the clip and then ask you to discuss. roll it, guys. >> i've got one major thing that i still haven't told you yet. you guys ready? w woo-hoo! 50i >> come on. >> no way. >> this prototype is all electric. >> we know the slogan, right? which is built ford tough. how difficult is it going to be to convince, you know, these macheesemo guys, hey, this electric truck is cool? >> well, i think that is exactly what we start is making sure

that we are building on that truck know-how with over a century of manufacturing experience, but also 73 years of truck experience, building on what customers know and love about the product, and then from there, adding the electric. that base is still very much a truck core fundamentals for the product. making sure that it can drive, work, haul, tow, and haul, but then adding the electrification pieces of it so that it does have awesome performance and new things that our customer didn't expect, or capability to be able to power up your entire home for days on end. this f-150 lightning is really a historical turning point for the company and every so obseften, new vehicle comes along that disrupts the status quo and changes everything and, in a way, that is this truck. not only an inflection point of

the point but a tipping for the industry. >> reporter: "the washington post" i thought summed up what most interests me about this rollout. i'll put the quote on the screen and i'll read it to you. did she get it right? >> yeah. i think so. and think that is what we heard loud and clear from truck customers is that it has to be a truck, first. it can't be a science experiment. and it needs to be able to work. and that is what this truck does. so we put it through the same engineering and testing regiments al all of our f-series on our customers can depend on the durability and reliability they normally would expect with f-series.

f-series, in itself, is such an important brand for the company with 44 years of sales leadership and if you just think about that brand alone, it's such a valuable consumer good in america generating more revenue than some major companies like mcdonald's, nike, coca-cola, and even visa. so we had to make sure we came out with a product that could live behind that shield, that built ford tough shield and that credibility that our customers want and, in a way, deserve to have with this product. so it does put all of those things and a lot more. >> quick final question. i understand that the president lingered like you couldn't get him out of the thing once he got in it. you had the pleasure of briefing him. what was that like? >> oh, it was wonderful. he was so interested about the vehicle. and the truck and what it could do. and we were inside the vehicle for a little bit as well taking

a look at the awesome 15 1/2-inch ginormous screen has all features inside and looking a lot of those and he was asking some really good questions about the technology in the vehicle, as well as about the functionality of the vehicle and making sure that it continued to do the work that our customers need. we also talked a little bit about price point and the entry pricing that comes in at lower than $40 before federal and state incentives -- $40,000 before federal and state incentives. >> congratulations. >> thank you. let's see what you're saying on my twitter and facebook pages. here is my question. will electric vehicles kill the road trip? how often will you have to stop for a a charge and how long does it take? larry, you're asking the right

guy, okay? because when i leave this studio in 25 minutes, i'm going fishing! in the pennsylvania poconos for the weekend! i have arranged on my electric vehicle of 300 miles. it's not an impediment at all. i remember before i pulled the trigger i had ranger anxiety but it has turned out to be no issue whatsoever and i know from the ford rollout, they are going to have charging stations all over the place. don't let that hold you back says this guy who went electric a year ago. i hope you're answering the survey question at smerconish.com. will supreme court decisions in 2022 on abortion and guns help republicans? democrats? or neither? still to come, will the kids be all right? the first generation to grow up with iphones has higher rates of suicide and depression more than any generation dating to 1950 and why some lawmakers on

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and their families, neutrogena® for people with skin. how has gen-z fared during the pandemic? a studied cowritten by a psychologist jean twang were said it improved in the pandemic with overall decreases in depression and loneliness. the pandemic made them get more sleep and spending more time with families and the bar was low to begin with. between 2005 and 2017 rates of depression increased 52% among adolescents between 12 and 17 and members of congress see these troublesome trends and they want to take action.

facebook told lawmakers in an april letter they are in the exp exploratory phase. they are citing mental health and privacy concerns. they said, quote. the social media company denies the correlation between increased social media use and poor mental health calling links to depression inconclusive. in an april letter to lawmakers facebook said the privacy safety and well-being of young people on our platform is essential, it's our top priority. but is it actually? here to discuss is congresswoman kathy caster who introduced two bills last year aiming to protect kids and teens from harmful content on the internet, rein in big tech and thank you

for being here, congresswoman. i watched an exchange you with mr. zuckerberg and dorsi and chai and head of social media platforms. you told they use manipulative methods to keep people on their platforms. >> for facebook and mark zuckerberg to continue to promote and instagram for kids really is unconscionable. parents and families are very concerned about this potential new social media platform and rightfully so because there is a growing body of research and evidence that shows a correlation between social media and higher suicide rates, anxiety, depression, obesity, and so for mark zuckerberg and the other platforms to continue to press their behavioral

surveillance, their targeted ads is really unconscionable. >> here is one of the exchanges that you had with mark zuckerberg. roll it. >> are you aware of the 2019 journal of the american medical association pediatrics study that the risk of depression for adolescents rises with each daily hour spent on social media? are you aware of that research? >> congresswoman, i'm not aware of that research. >> did that pass the b.s. meter? >> it did not. and now we know facebook has said themselves that they have a lot of that research and we want them to provide that to us and other researchers as well. and here is why that is important. understanding the harms and potential harms for getting kids hooked early, they benefit enormously. they profit enormously by keeping people engaged. but it's different for children.

their brains are still developing. think about it as kind of candy cigarettes. remember the tobacco company said smoking doesn't cause any health impacts and they promoted candy cigarettes to try to lure kids on to -- in to smoking? i think this is very analogous to that. >> you also asked the heads of these giant three media platforms whether they allow their children on social media. what do they say and what did you think of the answer? >> well, they demurred. i asked him if they watched the documentary," the social dilemma." where a lot of their former employees set out right because of the harms to kids and higher anxiety and depression and they don't let their kids interact with social media. >> so please tell me this is not a partisan issue. >> well, i was particularly heartened at that hearing that

there was bipartisan concern expressed to zuckerberg and the other tech ceos about the harm. you simply cannot ignore this growing body of evidence of the higher rates of anxiety and depression, especially among teen girls. the problem is that these platforms, they are all about making money and keeping you -- your eyeballs engaged on that platform. that's why they employ these auto play techniques. so we are going to propose legislation to update the children's online privacy protection act. this was a law that was passeded in 1998 well before the cell phone and well before the modern internet. it says these companies cannot track children under age 13. but you know what? they have done it any way. and because they see it as the cost of doing business. so we want to outlaw these

manipulative tactics. if someone were sitting outside of your child's bedroom door or following them to school, you would call the police. but these online platforms have gotten away with it for too long. they simply pay the fine, so we are going to update the law and we are going to increase the penalty so it's not a cost of doing business. >> congresswoman, lest think anyone i'm against technology, i'm dependent upon it. the eye opener was this book. i know you're still guarded and using the word correlation and so is she. i came away from that book looking at the data that she had assembled about the relationship between when a majority of us started walking around with a smartphone in our pocket and the rapid acceleration of all these mental health trends. i don't know how it's anything

but causatcausation. if there is another explanation out, i'd sure like to hear it. you get the final word. >> yeah, i have two daughters that are gen-z. i watched what happened in their friend groups and now it's time to give parents the tools they need. they feel like they are entirely over the barrel and don't have any control. let's put the power back into the hands of parents and protect our kids and make sure they are not tracked, they are not lured into these harm social media platforms. >> i encourage people to watch your five-minute exchange. you covered a lot of ground in a short period of time. thank you for being here. >> thanks so much. still to come, more of your best and worst tweets and facebook comments. oh, that is interesting. now you can respond to me by social media, right? my question today is this will supreme court decisions on 2022 on abortion and guns help

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responded to the survey question this week at smerconish.com. will supreme court decisions in 2022 on abortion and guns help democrats, help plans, or neither? here comes the result. 46% say help republicans. interesting. 28% say neither. 26% say ds, and let's call it 14,000 votes. republicans traditionally seem to care more about the courts, but in this case if it's a

conservative decision that benefits the leanings of the republican party, in the short-term won't that bring more women out, won't that bring more of the young out in the midterm? could that cause the biden white house to say we need to expand the supreme court of the united states, and might that cause blowback for 2024? i know for sure it will be an interesting couple of years. here is some of the social media that came in during the course of the hour. the f-150 drivers in my neck of the woods have one question. can they still fly the american flags on the back gate? i drove one for 15 years and it's a great vehicle. the question is, are those conservative republican-leaning truck owners, and according to the data, this is not just stereotyping, they comprise a lion's share of them, are they ready to go electric? i didn't really bring out in my interview with linda zhang all

the details i'm aware of. there are 11 different power outlets and you can power your house for three days. i think it's going to bring them around and will be a game-changer. i do think it will lessen green energy as a culture issue. has anyone considered the move from cell phones to land lines and the ability to block all spam calls or unknown numbers from actually reaching a voter? do you think republicans do that more than democrats? i don't think people want to admit to a stranger that they're voting for a politically incorrect candidate. that's it. see you next week. health. versus 16 grams in ensure high protein. boost® high protein also has key nutrients for immune support. boost® high protein.

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good morning to you on this saturday, may 22nd, i'm christi paul. >> i'm boris sanchez. you are live in the "cnn newsroom" and we begin with videos of a violent police encounter, once again shocking the conscience of the country. cnn has obtained footage louisiana police say they have showing the final moments of ronald greene's life, videos they released two years after his death in their custody. >> we want to give you a warning because we don't want you caught