public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the show, next week marks an event china has been preparing for literally for decades. the 100th anniversary of the communist party. where is this new superpower headed? are we at the start of a new cold war? i brought together a fascinating group of experts. also, the host of revisionist history malcolm gladwell on some of the things

he's been thinking about deeply recently. from a future filled with autonomous cars and why cyclists are excited about that to why war games are so important in avoiding, well, war. plus, why college rankings may be biased against historically black colleges and universities. >> we have a system that is rewarding schools for no other reason than the fact they have a lot of money in the bank and that they admit a lot of rich, wealthy white students. i'm sorry, but that is absolutely preposterous. that is crazy. but first, here's my take. eric adams is likely to be the next mayor of new york city after taking a commanding lead in this week's democratic primary. here's what he said on the night of the election.

>> social media does not pick a candidate. people on social security picks a candidate. >> adams was making the point that democrats should take seriously the party's progressive wing makes noise and gets attention, but voters prefer pragmatists to ideologues. as cities see a sharp resurgence in crime, homicides were up 30% last year and an additional 24% this year. as places struggle to revive growth and employment, the focus on governance will only heighten. today the democratic party has control of just 18 state legislatures compared to 30 for republicans. democrats spent tens of millions of dollars to flip the legislatures in arizona, north carolina, florida and texas. they failed everywhere, and they even managed to lose control of new hampshire's legislature. since states oversee

redistricting and voting laws, the 2022 midterms look very tough for democrats. part of the issues is republican advantages. the overrepresentation of rural areas, for example. but democratic failures also play a role. put bluntly, too many democratic states have gotten bloated, mismanaged and corrupt. take new york state. it has a budget nearly twice the size of florida's, yet it has roughly the same population. its budget is just 12% smaller than california's despite having half as many people. can anyone even explain why? this increased spending does not always pay off. steven malanga of the city journal cites an analysis from wallet hub comparing tex revenues with the quality of public services such as infrastructure, education, and health care. new york has the eighth highest

tax rate but ranks 19th in quality of services. california is sixth highest on taxes and 37th on public services. states like new jersey and massachusetts, despite massive spending, have some of the worst infrastructure in the country. similarly, sky high education spending in these states doesn't translate into better educational outcomes. as ryan fazio notes in the new york post, new york spends nearly twice as much per pupil as the national average, and yet it's fourth and eighth grade reading scores are no better than the national average. things have reached a tipping point. nearly 14,000 businesses left california between 2009 and 2019. this seems to have gotten worse in the last few years with tesla, apple, charles schwab, facebook and hewlett-packard all announcing significant relocations to or expansions in texas. in 2021, the top ranked states

for running a business, according to ceos, were texas, florida, tennessee, north carolina, and indiana. the worst five were california, new york, illinois, new jersey and washington. the pandemic has opened up horizons for companies that are now thinking more aggressively about relocations, remote work forces and flexible office locations. all this bodes poorly for blue states. and it's not just businesses that are leaving blue states. people are as well. for the first time on record, california's population actually decreased last year. illinois was one of the few states to see its population shrink over the last decade. as the "wall street journal" observes, it can't be the weather since every other midwestern state actually gained people over the same period. meanwhile, texas and florida together swelled by more than 6 million people. all of this, of course, translates into more political power. new york, california, illinois,

pennsylvania, michigan, west virginia and ohio will all lose congressional seats while texas, florida, north carolina, montana, colorado, oregon will gain them. these shifts plus redistricting probably mean democrats could lose the house even if they perform just as well in 2022 as they did in 2020. liberals don't like to face squarely the issue of democratic incompetence. new york, for example, handled the pandemic disastrously at the state and city level. as ryan cooper has pointed out, new york state's covid-19 deaths rose faster than anyplace on the planet at an equivalent point in their outbreaks. its death rate per capita is almost 60% higher than florida's, yet new york heroes were fettered as heroes. in an extensive investigation of governor andrew cuomo and mayor

bill de blasio, propublica payments a devastating picture of serious mistakes, the overruling of experts, combined with cover-ups and denial. in other words, many of the same errors for which donald trump was rightly excoriated. the democratic party wants more government now, for many good causes and reasons. but in order to gain the trust of people, it needs to first face up to its failures and work harder to show that it can effectively manage the governments it is already running. president biden is doing that at the federal level. at the local level, new york city would be a good place to start. go to cnn.com/fareed for my new "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. on thursday china will throw a huge nationwide party.

there are propaganda films all movie theaters across the country are required to play, monuments and official buildings are being spiffed up. there are exhibits, collectibles, and more. the occasion for all of this is 1900th anniversary of the founding of the communist party. in the ensuing century, it is presided over what jeff sachs calls the most successful developing story in history. what comes next? a cold war with america, widening internal fractures, a move toward democracy, perhaps? here to discuss our economy, rona mitter and jiayang fan. rana studies foreign relations. rana is a professor at oxford, and jiayang is a staff writer at the new yorker. you're a historian. what does this mean in

historical perspective. not a lot of parties have lasted that long. >> very few parties have lasted that long, and certainly no other communist party, certainly of this stature, certainly of that size has lasted that long. what it means essentially is that the party has survived 100 years through some of the most extraordinary turmoil that any political institution has seen. in 1921, it started off as a dozen young men gathering basically in tea houses to talk about marxism in the city of beijing. now it's a machine that rules a quarter of humanity, but on the way, it's caused some horrific results. the great culture revolution of the '50s and '60s where millions died and created one of the most astonishing economic growth miracles in the last 30 or 40 years. all those things are true at the same time. that's the huge story being commemorated with the 100th anniversary. >> liz, explain to us the party's relationship to the society. we hear a lot about the party. but the party is not the country.

>> that's right. in many respects, this 100-year celebration is at its core about legitimating the party in the eyes of the chinese people. you know, from the time that chinese are 6 years old, they're inculcated in school with the glory of the party. but it doesn't obviate the fact that the party really represents only about 6.5% of the chinese population, about 91 million, 92 million of a population of 1.4 billion people, and they occupy all of the most important positions in government and many in universities and hospitals and industry. but nobody votes these people in. this is a self-selected group, so it's up to the chinese communist party to legitimate itself through its performance. so i think this 100-year anniversary is really going to be a testament to the chinese communist party's narrative that

it has successfully fought ebt outside oppressors, that it has had this extraordinary economic growth story, and it has now reclaimed a degree of centrality on the global stage. that's the tradeoff. the tradeoff is the sort of right of the chinese people to have a say in who leads them against this kind of performative legitimacy. >> jiayang, how does it look from what you can tell in china in the sense that, do people generally speaking think the party has done a good job? i mean, per capita gdp in china has gone up about five fold in the last 30 years. even when they look at the pandemic, after what happened initially, the chinese were able to control covid remarkably effectively. is the general sense one of competent and people willing to make the tradeoff of not having a say in the way liz was describing?

>> right, fareed. i think it's sometimes hard to say because information is so tightly controlled in china, and dissent is usually tamped down extremely effectively. but by and large, i think, the chinese populous has bought into this bargain, prosperity, in exchange for lack of political say. i think in china, there is a spirit of general jubilation that china has finally arrived, that the century of humiliation, which as you described the years in which china has suffered in the hands of foreign powers has finally ended, and we have begun the era of rejuvenation in china's restoration to its deserved glory. so nationalism runs very high,

and nationalism under xi has been one of the most potent instruments, weapons, really, of the communist party, and i think that the 100th year anniversary, the performance of it, just is another way in which, you know, this is being expressed. when we come back, i'll ask the panel, are we watching the start of a new cold war? more sun, more joy. neutrogena® beach defense® the suncare brand used most by dermatologists and their families, neutrogena® for people with skin. neutrogena® you need an ecolab scientific clean here. and you need it here. and here. and here. which is why the scientific expertise that helps operating rooms stay clean is now helping the places you go every day too.

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♪ goodbye. ♪ na na na na... ♪ hey hey hey. ♪ goodbye. ♪ na na na na ♪ na na na na... the world's first six-function multipro tailgate. available on the gmc sierra. we are back with elizabeth economy, rona mitter, and jiayang fan, taking about kinda. rana, when you look at china, there is a school of thought that says china has always been internally obsessed, saw itself

as the center of the world, the middle kingdom. it's really not that expansionist. under xi, there seems to be a greater sense of scoldb countries, punishing countries, asserting china's rights. has china become more expansionist? give us a sense of what it looks like in historical perspective. >> i think in some ways what china is doing today looks very like what it's done over hundreds of years which is in its immediate backyard, in shexinjiang, where uighurs are held in detention camps, where hong kong is being really kind of constrained in terms of its freedoms, the shut down of the apple daily newspaper is an example of that recently. in those areas, china is showing under xi it's not willing to tolerating any dissent and it wants control. as you move out in concentric circles, as you move out into

eurasia and the areas where the belt and road initiative, that big economic technology driven attempt to try to create infrastructure around the world, there is an interest in creating economic interests, and also a kind of technological part dependency. 5g is coming from china and parts of subsaharan africa. they'll likely take 6g and 7g but is that the same as direct political control? the idea that the old soviet union or the british empire had of taking over territories. that sort of expansionism is not in the mind of the chineme commist party, the reason being in the end is what i think china's communist party is for the world to think well of it and approve of it. that's why it gets so angry with criticism. as a historian, that looks much more like a traditional imperial confushen way of looking at things rather than a communist way of looking at thing. in some ways if you treated the emperor right, he wouldn't mind

what you did behind his back. but if you basically insulted him to his face, then you were in for a very hard time. there's some tone of that in what's going on today with that very angry language. >> jiayang, it seems as those this, i mean, xi seems popular. we do have some survey data. of course, one can believe it or not, but it does all seem to point to the idea that this kind of nationalism that rana was talking about, there's even an element of paopulism, it seems o work domestically, as it does in other countries. >> yes, it really does feed upon itself. i think that's what makes this revolution of nationalism so potent, because even among the young, especially those who have not suffered in the cultural revolution, the great leap forward, the great famine, they have only experienced china from the '80s onwards.

in its successal economic reforms that have brought economic prosperity to the country. and they buy into xi's rhetoric of seeing the world as the divide between china's friends and enemies. and u.s. being one of the possible enemies of china is seep as a country that is determined to bring shame and undermine china's future development. for the young, especially millennials and gen-z who have grown up more connected to the world than ever, they see this as something that they must rally against. so for the rising generation of the chinese, they do, i think, buy into xi's nationalism

because it is so inextricably tied to their identity and their need to feel a pride in the sense of chinese identity. >> liz, do you think the biden administration is handling this new china more expansionist, more aggressive, maybe, in some ways, is biden handling china well? >> i think the administration has gotten off to a good start. i think they've, you know, sort of built upon the trump administration policy in important ways, so i think the threat perceptions remain the same, but they've expanded the tools at their disposal to include much greater partnership with our allies. so working with the quad, japan, india and australia, but also with our european allies to focus on democratic values, talking about the sanctions

against china, doing joint sanctions with the eu and u.k. in canada against china for its human rights abuses in xinjiang. i think the u.s. is back in terms of multilateral institutions. the trump administration withdrew the u.s., basically said it wasn't interested in leading on the global stage anymore. president biden clearly has a different perspective. i think that's incredibly important. it's a combination of both recognizing the threat and the challenge that china poses, sort of across the board, but also returning to many traditional, more traditional foreign policy values and approaches in terms of u.s. leadership on the global stage. while still maintaining an openness to cooperating with china. i think that is important. secretary of state blinken has made clear the u.s. wants to cooperate with china. you know, in targeted narrow issues like climate change and afghanistan and north korea and iran. it's not interested in a broad

gauged strategic dialogue where nothing gets accomplished and you're just talking for talking's sake, but it is interested in working with china where it makes sense. so i think they have established an important and workable framework. we'll have to see how it evolves moving forward. it's going to be a very challenging relationship. >> this has been an important set of reflections about what is going to be the most important relationship the united states has in the world, probably for most countries, it's most important or second most important relationship right now. thank you so much. next on "gps," what is on malcolm gladwell's mienlt these days? a whole lot. he has insights from self-driving to war games to historically black colleges and the little mermaid. yes, the movie. he'll tell us all about it when we come back. >> this is a vigilante movie. it's a vigilante movie that is focused, that is aimed at 9-year-old girls. this is crazy. why are we showing our 9-year-old daughters vigilante

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malcolm gladwell is an industry unto himself. he has sold many millions of books in dozens of languages starting with "the tipping point" in 2000. now he's a master podcaster. his podcast, revisionist history, has been downloaded more than 100 million times in the last two years, according to his production company. he's out with a new season of the podcast and has many new fascinating stories to tell. welcome back, malcolm. >> thank you, fareed.

>> so one that caught my attention was autonomous cars. because everyone talks about this, and yet, you don't see it happening as fast as people were predicting. are we moving rapidly to a point where we're going to be able to, you know, do e-mails while the car is actually driving for us? >> yeah, i think it's pretty clear it's coming. the question is how quickly. i was, you know, for my episode on autonomous cars, i went down to phoenix and rode in waymo, which is google's autonomous vehicle effort. it's incredibly impressive. it's a far cry more sophisticated than the kind of, you know, the systems that are in teslas, for example, it's very difficult to ride in the back of a waymo and believe we're all going to be in autonomous vehicles in the decade. i was blown away by the technology. >> but when you look at waymo,

is that the future? my understanding that is still pretty expensive. they have those things look like some kind of tanks with dozens of cameras and sensors on them. >> they are, at this point, we're in the earliest stages of the technology. i can't help but be optimistic that this is going to end up in a form that will be affordable and usable for all of us. in fac, the point of my episode was to imagine what would happen when every car on the road was autonomous. that is the delicious future that lies in wait for all of us, because, as sort of a slightly tongue in cheek episode, but the thing that i was exploring was something that i read about in this wonderful paper from a guy named adam miller ball who is an urban planner at ucla who pointed out that if every car on the road is autonomous, in other words, if every car is perfectly

behaved, right, because autonomous vehicles, if they're controlled by a computer, they are rational and patient and good-natured in a way that human drivers are not. what does that mean, this guy miller ball asks. hianswer is, well, it means pedestrians, cyclists, runners. little kids playing soccer, can all do whatever they want. they can take back the road. >> because the autonomous car will always give you the right-of-way. >> exactly. why don't you jaywalk all the time right now? because you have a legitimate fear that one out of every ten times the driver is not going to see you and they'll kill you, right? that's why most of us cross at the light, at the crosswalk, look both ways first, because we're terrified of some dumb driver. if every car is autonomous, we're not terrified anymore. the cars are perfect. i tested this out with a waymo in a parking lot just outside

phoenix and i was running alongside the car -- this is where the episode ends -- and just doing what i wanted, and the car was the most respectful. every time i cut in front of it, it stopped. every time i ran in front of it, it slowed down. i realized, a world full of these things, my track club will do its workouts on the interstate. i'm also a big cyclist. the reason i don't cycle in manhattan is that i'm terrified. i will no longer be terrified and nor will thousands and thousands of other people. i'm not even sure it will be possible to drive a car across manhattan if every car is autonomous because the cyclists will be everywhere. >> war gaming. how did you come to think about war games and war plans, and what did you find? >> i'm on the board of rand, and rand is one of the big war gaming shops in america.

every now and again, we would have a presentation at one of our board meetings on a war game. and i always found them incredibly fascinating. in particular i was fascinated by this idea that there is a certain kind of insight you get from a prediction and a certain kind of insight you get from a plan, but a whole different kind of insight that you get from a game. everyone at rand in the war game world quotes this famous line from thomas schelling, nobel prize winner, founder of game theory. he once said, no one no matter how intelligent can make a list of things that would not occur to them, which is the point of a war game. the point of a war game is that we play a game in order to expose ourselves to things that were outside of our reckoning. that just simply were too weird and unexpected and odd for us to have thought about on our own.

and that idea is so crucial. the military gets this, of course, which is why they do war games over and over again. because they're aware of their limitations as predictors. as normal human predictors. he's aware, as schelling pointed out, they're unaware of a list of things that haven't occurred to them. i wonder if the rest of the world needs to learn this listen. particularly, thinking of covid here. there's a whole series of things that had not occurred to us about a pandemic, that we were simply not prepared for. and that we might have been prepared for if we had done these kinds of elaborate simulations of the sort that are commonplace in the military world. >> next on "gps," malcolm has long been skeptical of u.s. college rankings. now he has some powerful new fodder for his argument, which he'll explain when we come back. neutrogena® beach defense® the suncare brand used most by dermatologists and their families,

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what about these college ratings? what did you find about how it affected or how it dealt with historically black colleges? >> yeah, so i have been obsessed with college rankings for many years. like you, as a non-american, i came to this country largely ignorant of the higher ed system and have come away from my time here with the impression that it's nuts. it's completely crazy. one of the things that's crazy about it is that we insist on using as our benchmark for assessing the quality of colleges this thing called the u.s. news rankings. so i decided i would investigate the algorithm that the u.s. news uses to rank colleges, and it's sort of quasi secret. i found some hackers at reed college who had hacked their way into the algorithm, and we proceeded to play a series of games. let's just find out. so one of the things -- and this is actually not funny, it's quite disturbing. one of the biggest variables in

the u.s. news ranking is what they call a peer assessment store. this accounts for more than any other variability in the ranking. they send a questionnaire to every college president in the country and have them rank the academic reputation of all the other colleges in this country on a scale of 1 to 5. that accounts for a huge amount. right away you realize the absurdity of this. so if i am the president of evan university in manhattan, i am ranking, you know, brigham young on a scale of 1 to 5. with all due respect to the rabbi who runs the shiva, i'm quite sure he's never been to brigham young, and that guy has never been to yashiva. and yet u.s. news is asking them to rank each other on a scale of 1 to 5. it's just absurd. i had my hackers do a regression on the peer assessment score to

figure out what factors correlate most closely with a high reputation score, with a 5? if i take just three variables the size of the school's endowment, the amount of money they charge in tuition and the number of white people on campus, i can predict u.s. news' reputation score with 91.3% accuracy. in other words, a huge part of this algorithm is simply measuring how much money a school has and how many white people it has on campus. that does not bode well, for example, for a historically black college which, by definition, doesn't have a lot of money because it's serving a population that's at the other end of the socioeconomic scale and that doesn't have a lot of white kids on campus and that by design charges a low amount of tuition because they want to be affordable for kids. so we have a system that is systemically impoverishing schools that provide

educational opportunities to poorer kids, and that is rewarding schools for no other reason than the fact they have a lot of money in the bank and they admit a lot of rich, wealthy, white students. i'm sorry, but that is absolutely preposterous. that is crazy. i don't even think most people who casually glance at those rankings in order to help their children make a decision about where to apply for colleges realize how preposterous these rankings are. i could go on, fareed, for -- as i do, i have two shows on this. i go on for an hour and a half on how nuts these things are. i've just scratched the surface. i could go down every variable in the algorithm and show you, prove to you that it is so completely bonkers and that these variables had nothing to do with the underlying quality of the school. >> and it's not just that society takes them so seriously, it's that american high schools are essentially geared almost

entirely to figuring out how to get kids into those colleges based on the very rankings you're describing. anyway, we have to go on because i have to understand why three of the episodes in the series are about one movie, a much beloved movie, "the little mermaid." but you come not to praise "the little mermaid" but to bury it. >> fareed, i know you have watched it, and i know you have daughters. you cannot plead ignorance on it. i had not watched it. i went back and watched it at the grand old age of 57, and i discovered to my horror and shock that this movie is crazy. fareed, this is a movie about a young, spirited mermaid who is independent and full of life who gets into trouble and can only be saved, first of all, by a

handsome prince, who can't save herself. and the handsome prince, the way he saves her, is by committing a murder in cold blood. an extra legal execution of a witch. this is a vigilante movie. this is a vigilante movie that is focused, that is aimed at 9-year-old girls. this is crazy. why are we showing our 9-year-old daughterses vigilante movies? again, i have many other critiques of this, but we rewrite, a got a brilliant screen writer and actress to rewrite the ending, and we did -- our ending is a good ending, the ending you want your daughter to listen to. >> as long as you like sebastian the crab, i'm okay. >> i love sebastian. he's not the problem, let's just put it that way. >> malcolm gladwell, always a pleasure. >> thank you, fareed. next on "gps," donald trump unleashed his fury at social

media companies for banning him from their platforms. it turns out he isn't the only current or former world leader seething about social media. that story when we come back. neutrogena® beach defense® the suncare brand used most by dermatologists and their families, neutrogena® f it's a simple fact: nothing kills more germs on more surfaces than lysol spray. it's a simple fact: it even kills the covid-19 virus. science supports these simple facts. there's only one true lysol. lysol. what it takes to protect. ♪ ♪ 1 2 3 4 ♪ ♪ and i never turn it down ♪ ♪ aw ♪ ♪ aw ♪ ♪ no ♪ ♪ and i never turn it down ♪ ♪ oh no ♪ ♪ and i never turn it down ♪ ♪ pushing it down ♪ ♪ making it out ♪

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and now for the last look. on thursday, hong kongers flocked to newsstands for a piece of history. the last issue of the prodemocracy newspaper apple daily. a monument to that city's long-standing freedoms. the paper was forced to close after the government arrested the journalists and froze the bank accounts and imprisoned the founder. the activist jimmy lie. the news is tragic but not unexpected. china is after a powerful communist dictator dismantling

hong kong's autonomy for months. similar trends are now visible in some of the world's largest democracies. some of the elected governments are clamping down on free speech and online. india, a country that could have more than 800 million smart phone users by next year. last month a raft of new rules went into effect that make social media companies criminally liable for content that users post online. under the new laws, companies like twitter and facebook have 36 hours to take down posts that the government finds objectionable including posts that are deemed to be counter to public order, decency or morality or the sovereignty and integrity of india. all concepts to be interpreted by the government. and recent history tells us the government of the prime minister might interpret such categories

very broadly. routers reported last month that india asked social media companies to take down posts referring to the, quote, indian variant during the second deadly covid wave. in february the modi government ordered twitter to block hundreds of accounts belonging to opposition politicians and journalists. here's the tragedy. india's not alone in this trend. look at indonesia, a country that was becoming increasingly democratic and open over the last two decades. as reported, the government issued a series of new regulations that required tech companies to take down objectionable content with as little as four hours notice. that's content inciting terrorism as well as the vague category of content that disturens society. again to be interpreted by the government. also vague is the category of

companies subject to the law. it includes social media companies, but it could include news websites large and small which means the law effectively could censor all press. these laws are little more than digital censorship in the guise of regulation. but sometimes countries use even blunter instruments. look at nigeria. earlier this month the administration of information took to twitter to make an announcement. it was banning twitter. the ban came after twitter took down a controversial post by their president and temporarily suspended his account. as the new york times notes, his tweet which warned groups in the fractious southeast against agitating was seen by many as a thin ri veiled threat in a country with ethnic tensions. nigeria's twitter ban was welcomed in one quarter. donald trump barred from twitter

himself issued a statement in enthusiastic support of nigh jaer ya's actions. the nigerian government has begun talks with twitter this week at an attack on what has become an essential platform for dissent in the country. all over the world, governments are battling tech companies for control of online spaces, but it's one thing to invoke laws to stifle hate speech and abuse, and quite another to use them to silence criticism. when thinking about this issue, it's crucial to recognize that in most developing countries, lacking traditional infrastructure, forms and communications, the internet has become a central platform for life it. in nigeria, a country plagued by unemployment, twitter is an essentially e-commerce platform for young entrepreneurs. in india during the covid wave,

people took to social media to try to arrange life-saving oxygen and medicines for their loved ones when the hospitals ran out. in many of these countries, social media provides the only serious and sustained check on government. so when democratic governments extend their control of social media or the internet, they are really seeking to extend their control over the lives of their people. thanks so all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. spray, lift, skip, step. swipe, lift, spin, dry. slam, pan, still...fresh move, move, move, move aaaaand still fresh. degree. ultimate freshness activated when you move.

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hello, everyone. thauj for joining me. i'm joined by wolf blitzer in surfside, florida at the scene of the deadly building collapse. we'll go to wolf in a moment. first the laters on what we know. the death toll today climbing to nine as crews continue desperate searches for survivors. officials say they have recovered four additional bodies overnight and more human remains. five of the victims have now been identified. but dozens more are still missing. four days afte