delayed vaccination. so it was very, very successful. it was something that worked, and we're glad we did it. >> all right. ohio governor mark dewine, thank you very much for your time today. we really appreciate it. best of luck in ohio. thank you for spending your morning with us. the news continues next. this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. we'll begin today's show with two nobel laureates in economics. first up, paul krugman of the "new york times" on just how much damage the delta variant will do to the u.s. economy as it throws back-to-work plans up in the air. what will it do to the rest of the world? then richard thaler on how to nudge the vaccine hesitant, to go ahead and get the shots.

he literally wrote the book on it. he's the co-author of the mega best-seller, "nudge." >> people will die who don't have to die. people don't have to die. >> also, tunisia was the poster child for arab's spring success. it took out autocracy and replaced it with democracy. but now the president has fired the prime minister and frozen the parliament. is this a coup? will the other government go the autocrat route? we'll explore. does america need a truth and reconciliation process after the attack on the capitol? the house select committee held its first hearing on tuesday, but many in this country didn't actually want to hear the truth, and there's certainly no reconciliation in the works.

scholar danielle allen will tell us how it could work here in america. but first, here's my take. the news today is buried in tunisia, the only success story of the arab spring, came after the prime minister had been assassinated. it got me thinking about one of the fundamental rules in politics. why is it so difficult to develop and sustain a liberal democracy. the best recent work on this subject comes from a remarkable pair of scholars, daron acemoglu and james a. robinson, who wrote the book, "the narrow corridor." in every society, they note, the first step is simply achieving order and stability. history is littered with places where gangs, warlords and tribes rule and the state is never able

to effectively consolidate power and govern. that was afghanistan's past and might be its future. if political order is rare, liberal political order is rarer still. liberal democracy is the goldilocks form of government. it needs a state that is strong enough to govern effectively but not so strong that it crushes the liberties and rights of its people. the authors called this the shackled leviathan. thomas hobbes used the biblical monster leviathan to describe a powerful state. getting to liberal democracy requires that societies travel through a narrow corridor, one that allows the state to build power while also allowing the growth of a civil society that asserts itself and fights for rights. together they create the delicate balance between stability and freedom. countries in the west have succeeded because they have managed to build up both strong states and strong societies. in afghanistan, despite two

decades of efforts, the state has failed to gain control over much of the country, creating what the authors call the absent leviathan. in egypt the state is too strong. after a flirtation with democracy after the arab spring, the country reverted to dictatorship. other parts of the world have what the authors called paper leviathans, governments that got power to provide a smaller leap to the top. so how did the west get goldilocks politics? the authors cited two opposing forces. first there was the legacy of the roman empire which provided institutions, laws and traditions that made it possible to create order. second, the northern european tribes rooted in legalitarian

assemblies, the contest of nobles and kings and the principalities of medieval europe all tried to grow and flourish. it's not a matter of the west's cultural superiority, but its unusual history. countries in other parts of the world have been able to strike a similar balance, from india to south korea to costa rica. but the corridor is narrow, and understanding that helps us to recognize the fragility of liberal democracy. it's why, in the late 1990s, while we were all cheering as countries across the globe were holding elections, i noted the phenomenon of illiberal democracy, places where elected leaders were systematically abusing power, denoog i people their rights and holding out on the liberty of governments. now that list has gotten longer, including hungary, established

democracies like india and some like russia that have morphed into dictatorship. countries like the united states that have traveled this narrow corridor and have struck the right balance between state and society are lucky. but we are in an era of democratic dysfunction as populist movements threaten the political institutions and norms that have long been seen as neutral. we see this most dangerously in the republican party's effort to politicize the counting of votes in the various states it controls. america remains a liberal democracy. but this week's hearing on the january 6 insurrection at the capitol highlighted the fragility of democratic norms even here. our political institutions are stronger than most, but they're being strained by a society that is deeply divided, so much so that even the basic facts of what happened on january 6 are now vigorously contested.

the rioters, egged on by unscrupulous politicians, showed how much damage a group of private citizens could do. but the rest of us can repair the damage by pushing for stronger democratic guardrails and resisting efforts to subvert the will of the people. by now you've probably heard the story that in 1787, somebody supposedly asked benjamin franklin what kind of government the constitutional convention had decided on. a republic, he answered, if you can keep it. the delegates could design the best system in the world, but its success ultimately rested with the people. that sounds like an ominous warning, but we might also take comfort. the power to preserve democracy is in our hands. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started.

the american economy grew at an impressive annualized rate of 6.5% in the second quarter of the year. but april through june was a period when many americans were leaving their homes, taking their masks off, going back to work and going into stores. what happens to the economy if some of that reverses thanks to the delta variant? for that and more, i'm joined by paul krugman, an op-ed columnist for "the new york times" and won the nobel prize in commission in 2008. welcome, paul. so is this delta variant going to be a break on what seemed like a very powerful recovery? >> it's going to be a bit of a break. no question that things are not as rosy as they appeared to be before this delta variant started up. but this is very, very different. it's a much less powerful blow to the economy and something much easier to cope with if we choose than what we went through

last year. this shouldn't be a really important thing. it's going to hurt but it probably won't show that much in gdp at all. >> so explain that, because you have 40% of the population that's unvaccinated. presumably you're going to have states in which the hospitalization is going to get bad. maybe people are going to be cautious. you're going to have places like -- i'm thinking about broadway, which is -- mostly tourists go to broadway musicals. are they going to come in, are they going to have to require proof of vaccination? all of that feels like it gums up the works. but you think at the end of the day, this is such a huge economy, that won't matter? >> well, the thing was, last year the only way we could really slow this thing down was through drastic -- basically locking down a lot of stuff. this time the requiring proof of

vaccination, requiring face masks in certain settings, that's a lot less -- it's not stuff that people necessarily have fun with, but it's not really very hard to do and it doesn't really interfere with the economy. and, in fact, if you look at -- i think broadway is going to be an interesting thing, but places like new york where people are willing to go along with such things, where businesses -- they don't even require government action, where businesses can mandate proof of vaccination, can require face masks, should be able to largely get on with life in spite of the delta variant. the problem is going to come mostly -- and this is a very concentrated problem right now. it's very much red states, at least until five minutes ago, political leaders were very hostile to vaccinations, are still extremely hostile to masking, and they might try to prevent the private sector from doing these things. but this is something where it almost requires a positive

effort on the part of government to stop us from resolving this problem. >> what about the global picture? because, you know, the crazy thing in america is we have more than enough vaccines for everybody plus booster shots and yet there are 40% of the public that won't take it. around the world people are begging for vaccines and quite literally dying. but will that slow down economic growth globally to have this kind of patchwork globalization where places like the united states, europe and east asia may be fine but lots of other places are not. >> yeah, let me say something that is extremely inhumane and brutal. the places that are not coping with this, that don't have sufficient vaccines, have enormous number of people but not a whole lot of money. if you actually ask me, it's not just if we take western europe,

advanced east asia, that's the bulk of the global economy. then the places that are not managing to cope are places that the humanity -- the human cost is terrible, but it's a pretty small share of global gdp. there were some crazies old enough to remember the east asian financial crisis where the east asian economy recovered but the east asian people didn't, because korea bounced back fast and indonesia did not. there are not that many south koreans, but they're relatively rich. so this is one of those things that from an economics point of view, the fact that so much of the world being left out of this is not such a big deal. from a human point of view, it's horrific. >> there is a similar kind of interesting dichotomy which is that while travel has not recovered, my look at the data

suggests trade has recovered, right? why is that? >> well, trade is a funny thing. there are two factors going on here, i think. one is the shipping containers don't carry the virus. and if you look at modern -- how does modern trade happen, we do have a shortage of shipping containers because there's been so much demand for them, but they are virtually untouched by human hands. in fact, global trade is one of those activities that is not remote work, but it is stuff that is not much affected by all of the restrictions and all the virus, and precisely because people have not been -- have been afraid to consume some surfaces, they've actually shifted their demand towards goods, which are traded. so if you don't go to the gym and you buy a peloton instead, where do you think the peloton comes from? so that actually leads to an increase in global trade. >> paul krugman, always a pleasure. >> good to talk to you.

next on "gps," another nobel prize winning economist, richard thaler. he tells us how we'll get america's vaccine-hesitant to change their minds. back in a moment. that's why i started medhaul. citi launched the impact fund to invest in both women and entrepreneurs of color like me, so i can realize my vision and give everything i've got to my company, and my community. i got you. for the love of people. for the love of community. for the love of progress. citi. (struggling vehicle sounds) think premium can't be capable?

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♪ make your reunion happen with vrbo. your together awaits. vrbo anheuser busch offered free beer if the country met president biden's january 4 vaccination goal. america fell short, but the free beer still flowed. new york city announced early this week it would give $100 to people when they get their first dose. and on thursday president biden said he wants local and state government across the nation to offer a similar incentive. ten vaccinated california residents each won $1.5 million,

and in west virginia, if you got the shot, you could win cash, hunting rifles, scholarships and more. but despite so many incentives, america is stuck, unable to move past roughly 60% of the eligible population being fully vaccinated, not close enough for herd immunity. the burning question is how to nudge more americans to get the vaccine. joining me now is richard thaler. he is the co-author of "nudge" which has sold 2 million copies, and on tuesday its so-called final edition comes out. richard, welcome. this is, it seems to me, a case study that should be in the final edition of the book which people say -- >> there will be no post-final edition. >> you can't shove people, you can't mandate it, so how do you increase the incentives?

you listen to all those incentives. they haven't worked. how would you nudge people to get the vaccine? >> i think it's very useful to think back of our experience in dealing with smoking and see what happened. so if you go back to the 1960s, when it first became clear that smoking led to lung cancer and other kinds of cancer, we started with information campaigns, nudges. we added warning labels. gradually we started adding other incentives like taxing the cigarettes and making it difficult to smoke. you weren't allowed to smoke in your office or at a restaurant or in an airplane. i think we're seeing the same thing with vaccines. so lots of places are starting to announce mandates, but they're not quite mandates.

instead they're saying if you get vaccinated, then your life gets better. so take the national football league. they've announced that players who are unvaccinated -- first of all, they get tested. they can't fly with the team. when they get to an away game, they have to stay in their hotel room. and if they ever have a positive test, they're out for ten days. so i think we're going to start to see that if you want to insist on your right to be unvaccinated, you will lose some of your rights. if you're told you can't work here unless you're vaccinated, or -- you can work here if you're unvaccinated, but you have to get tested twice a week,

and those tests may not be free, i think a lot of people will start to change their minds about how resistant they are. >> it sounds to me like the big difference here is we don't have time. cigarettes is a wonderful example, you're right, it took decades. here we're trying to get this done in months, right? >> that's right. and, you know, look, i think governments around the world are going to have to decide how much pushing they want to do, and so macron in france is saying if you're not vaccinated, then you can't go to the cafe. now, as a french friend of mine told me, that's equivalent to the death penalty. so president biden has tried to push people but not require anyone. the same is true of many governors, and we're starting to

see mandates for certain health care workers, those who are facing patients, and my guess is that that's the trend that we're going to see. i don't particularly -- by the way, i don't particularly think that the idea of paying people $100 to get vaccinated is a great idea. >> why? >> the reason is there's no -- you can't tell me what the right price is. if it's $10, you run the risk of people saying, you know, it's only worth $10 to them, why should i bother? and if it's $1,000, then people might say, that thing must really be bad for you if they're going to pay you $1,000.

also, the more you pay, the more you risk angering the people who got vaccinated early, and by the way, people my age are very likely to need a booster shot when that rolls around for people to think, well, i might as well wait around until they start paying people. >> thank you, richard thaler. it sounded to me like the author of "nudge" was saying we'll need more than nudges. next on "gps," will another arab state go the autocratic route? we will explore. neuroscientist. and i love the science behind neuriva plus. unlike ordinary memory supplements, neuriva plus fuels six key indicators of brain performance. more brain performance? yes, please! neuriva. think bigger.

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it has been just over a decade since the start of the arab spring which brought such great hope that democracy would flourish across that region. sadly that hope has mostly fizzled out, but tunisia, where the regional revolution started, has seemed like a success. the dictator was ousted in 2011 and democracy has indeed seemed to be firmly in place there until this week. on sunday, the president fired the government and froze the activities of parliament. it looks like one-man rule again. but what is really going on? tarek masoud joins me. he is the professor of relations at harvard. tarek, thank you for joining me. what is going on? >> thank you, fareed. on wednesday, the president of

tunisia held a public meeting with leaders of the tunisian military and said he was activating a provision in the tunisian constitution to take action, and he fired the parliament minister, he fired those so they could be prosecuted for various crimes, and he put himself in charge. the country has been in trouble. his opponents look at this saying, this is a coup by any standard definition, it's unconstitutional, it's against democracy. supporters of the president and the president himself says, look, professor of

constitutional law, i've forgotten more about the constitution than any of you will ever know. i think this is completely constitutional. so the question remains for us whether this is really an abrogation for democracy or should be considered a suspension of some key provisions of the constitution, sort of like lincoln's suspension of the writ of habeas corpus of 1861. >> so is this coup or abrogation of democracy popular or unpopular, and if so why? >> it's hard to tell, but i think it's safe to say that a lot of tunisian were really frustrated over the course of their country for the last 11 years. that's why eye saeed got elected. it's hard for me to describe for your viewers just how odd and unusual a politician he is. in tunisia they refer to him as robocop. he speaks in a sort of monotone

that is a cross between robotics and a voice in the system. he has very strange views. he is very clear about not really believing in representative democracy and thinking that tunisia needs to move toward some other kind of much more hyperlocal system. so the fact that a guy like that could get elected is a testament to how frustrated people were with the tunisian legal system. then you add on top of that, the rising unemployment, economic dislocations of the coronavirus, the fact that the government of tunisia, the prim cee ministers have been unable to effectively cope with these challenges. and you could see why a lot of tunisian people would side with the president who says, look, the current system isn't working.

i need to sweep all of this away to get us a government that is more effective and more able to deliver what the people want. >> so ten years after the arab spring, and you've done a lot of research and writing about this. tunisia was the one shining example. does it say something about the arab world that they have not been able to create and sustain one really consolidated liberal democracy? >> certainly that's going to be the temptation. people are going to say i'm super invested in tunisian democracy. first of all, too easy to say tunisian democracy has failed. even if it does, if we do settle in for a period of more autocratic politics, does that mean the arabs can't have democracy? we've come out of a period where there's great concern about the

state of our democracy. what this shows us is democracy is not this endowment you can draw on forever. it's something you have to keep paying into and keep upholding. so getting and keeping democracy is hard in tunisia, it's hard in the arab world, and it's hard everywhere else, too. >> tarek masoud, good to have you on. >> thanks, fareed. next on "gps," does the u.s. need a truth and reconciliation commission like africa had after apartheid? we'll explore that intriguing idea when we come back.

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and you need it here. and here. and here. which is why the scientific expertise that helps operating rooms stay clean is now helping the places you go every day too. seek a commitment to clean. look for the ecolab science certified seal. south africa had a truth and reconciliation process to help heal the wounds of apartheid. rwanda had something similar after its civil war. canada established a treatment to tackle its treatment of indigenous people. there have been calls in america for such efforts for, amongst other things, slavery and racial justice, the treatment of the country's native peoples, and more recently, the attack on the capitol on january 6.

but how would such a thing work when there is no consensus on what the truth is and the path to reconciliation is so difficult to see? joining me now is danielle allen, who is on leave from a top professorship at harvard in order to run for the governor of massachusetts. welcome, danielle. first, let me ask you, are we really in as bad shape as south africa or rwanda or apartheid and the civil war? >> we're not in that bad of shape, but we are in a polarization in our history. the fact that polarization erupted into physical violence means we're in bad shape, indeed. we have a lot of work to do in truth and reconciliation. >> i'm sure you're going around massachusetts as you run for

governor. do you find the big events around january 6th, for example, or the stealing or not stealing of the election, depending on whose accusations you hear, are those things consuming the lives of everyday citizens? >> it really turned it up. that was one of the most important learnings for me as i've been around the commonwealth for the past six months. i thought of the polarization and the violence is really part of our national political experience, but i found people telling me stories of fights in towns over whether to build a new library that devolved into debates over whether people believed in the big lie over the election. on more than one occasion, i had people say to me, we don't know what to do. we want to bring our community back together. we try to reach the other side and there is no way to even start a conversation.

there is an air of great desperation and yearning for a way to address our division. >> danielle, do you think part of this is that january 6 or the election, these have become metaphors for a much deeper kind of cultural divide and fear on each side where, at some level, i imagine a lot of republicans know that what happened january 6 was a violent assault on the capitol, and, you know, but they're papering it over because they don't want to give a win to the other side. and somebody once said that the republicans live in fear that the democrats control all cultural power in america, and the democrats live in fear that the republicans control all political power. and that makes each one think any extreme action is okay. >> we definitely live in a time where each side feels they're experiencing an existential threat from the other side, but

what we have to recognize is that what is truly existentially threatened is our democracy and that's the problem. we need to do the work for a fullnd standing of what happened on january 6th. i'm glad to see the select committee moving forward in congress, for example. i think that's really important. and it's important that we recognize there are stages to this. there is work we do to achieve forensic truth where we really are clear about accountability. it's accountability for violence and incitement. that's the work that's proceeding in our courts. what we really need the select committee to do is to give us space for people to put their personal truths and experiences on the table, but then even more importantly, to generate a social truth. it mattered when those capitol police officers were testifying and really explaining the cruelty and violence that was in their face, the slurs and insults hurled at them. that brings the american people into a conversation to say, we have to anchor that something

really threatening occurred on january 6th and we have to understand the sources of that. >> you pointed out in a "washington post" op-ed you wrote, that in south africa, many forget when they did truth and reconciliation, there were many truths, that not everybody agreed on everything, and part of the process here has to be a kind of airing about the very different truths people have about all of this. >> exactly. this is the really hard part, so i wrote a piece in the "washington post" where i laid out the four categories of truth that scholars of truth and reconciliation have come to use to understand these hard processes where cultures managed to move away from political violence. you start with that work of forensic truth, using the courts to really hold accountable those who are actually perpetrators of crimes, but then you need to bring those personal truths to the table. for all those people who did think something badly had gone wrong in the election, what was behind that?

what made it possible for them to believe that? we need to come to an understanding of that. and ultimately the understanding of the causes of how people came to align with that mistaken world view is the source of an understanding that let's ask the question, okay, now how do we start to knit communities back together again? how can we achieve reconciliation? given this was the pattern of experience, that these were the causes that led world views to come so far apart from one another, how do we start to knit communities back together again? >> what part of your -- you're a great scholar, you're out there in the hustings. what gives you the most hope? >> it really is spiel, people in specific places working hard to solve problems. i think that, at the end of the day, is just fundamental to this work. you have to get people at the table for a conversation. you have to find that first ally, then once you do, u to

start snowballing it and trying to build out those circles of conversation, rebuild, again, that commitment to the use of evidence as people are working to decide together, and then keep bringing people into it. it's labor intensive, it's slow moving, there is no silver bullet. we're not going to cure ourselves overnight. that's why i come back to the select committee. i do think the work of the commission is fundamental for giving us understanding of how our world views came so far apart that they could even sustain violence. we need to understanding in order to see what the right pathways forward are. >> so you're describing in a sense work that needs to be done from the top down but also from the bottom up. >> exactly, yes. >> danielle allen, pleasure to have you on. >> thanks a lot, fareed. always good to be with you. appreciate it. next on "gps," top u.n. officials publicly traded barbs this week just like they did in the last meeting in march in alaska. what is behind the barbs? we have a fascinating story to tell you when we come back.

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look. u.s. deputy secretary of state was in northern china earlier this week to install guardrails so the relationship between the two nations did not get worse, especially in light of the unprecedented verbal sparring between secretary of state anthony blinken and one of his chinese counterparts in alaska in march. according to one news analysis, this meeting was a mini alaska. sherman forcefully detailed the areas where washington rejects policies. in a statement after the meeting, chinese voice minister blamed the u.s. for the tense relationship for turning the chinese into an imagined enemy. he went on with a not so subtle jab. it is as if when china's development is contained, america could become great again, he said. as after alaska, there was no cooperation or collaboration on view. part of the biden

administration's motivation for this confrontational strategy with china is probably that it works well domestically. donald trump's castigation of beijing played well and the republican party is now all in for a hardline on china. public attitudes toward china have soured considerably over the last decade, but china has domestic audience as well. recall the last high profile summit chinese diplomat went on a 15-minute rebuttal to blinken, railing against american con desengs and overreach of power and his audience at home lapped it up. clips of his speech went viral on social media. this line in particular. america does not have the qualifications to say it can speak to china from a position of strength. his quotes were plastered across merchandising of all kinds. t shirts, burper -- bumper stickers, lighters. all demanding the u.s. stop

interfering in china's internal affairs. one of the phrases the chinese people won't eat that, was shared so widely that it was ultimately viewed over 95 million times by chinese net zan ys a then this week the same phrase, the chinese people won't eat that was repeated in chinese media coverage about the meeting with sherman. some of this is clever debate and deflection by chinese officials. so when american officials bring up abuse against the uyghurs, the chinese counterparts can push back with the genocide of native americans. chinese point to the black lives matter protest. it's important to remember that nationalism works in both countries. in america trump found it useful to direct the attention toward a foreign foe. nationalistic tendencies have

been on the rise for years partly amplified by communist party propaganda and cemented by the chinese state censorship and army of trolls. one party voice allows nationalism to proliferate to all corners of the web. china ease nationalism has basis in history. china was humiliated and occupied during the wars of the 19th century. after what china deemed the century of humiliation at, the president's focus on rejuvenating the nation is appealing to many. it reached a fever pitch ahead of the 100th anniversary of the communist party. songs were composed and party affirming banners and a frequent refrain leading up to the celebration was the east is rising while the west is declining. using a common chinese idiom,

they warned any nation who seeks to bully china will find their heads bashed bloody forged by over 1.4 billion chinese people. it is a worrying reality that the world's two richest countries have moved into a spiral of competitive nationalism. it might be popular domestically, but it's dangerous internationally. one note before we go. on last week's show, i asked king abdullah about the concept that there would be no stand alone palestinian state in the future, but instead jordan would become the de facto palestinian state. i said the idea had been recently mentioned by long-time israeli diplomat dori gold. i was wrong. many have talked about that concept, but not ambassador gold. i apologize for that error. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week.

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good afternoon, everyone. thanks so much for joining me. i'm jessica dean in today. we begin this hour with the covid crisis entering a new dangerous phase. and stark warnings from health experts that the worst may be yet to come. the increasing threat fuel bid the delta variant is causing some people to finally get the vaccine. the 7-day average of new doses administered in the united states is up 26% over three weeks ago. that's good. that i