this is "gps." to people in the united states and around the world, i'm fareed zakaria. we'll begin today's show with dr. anthony fauci, the u.s. point man on the pandemic. as the world passes 200 million

confirmed cases of covid, america struggles under a new surge. what is next? will delta require masks and even lockdowns again? and will america ever reach herd immunity? then american conservatives say they love the flag, limited government and hungary. we'll explore why autocratically inclined viktor hugo is on the rise. we'll tackle that with a great panel. finally the world's nations come together every few years for the olympics. why do they seem to be unable to

come together to vaccinate the world's people? but first here's my take. tensions between the united states and china have risen substa substantially. the trump tariffs remain firmly in place, washington searching for new ways to limit the spread of chinese technology companies while giving funds to american firms. china, for its part, is trying to curtail its vulnerability to america's long reach. in this atmosphere, one might well imagine that trade and goods between the two countries has plummeted. in fact, chinese data has shown that it recently reached an all-time high. welcome to the strange new world we live in. china and the united states have become more adversarial to one another in every way, and yet they are both part of a global economy that is deeply interdependent and has a dynamic of its own. tensions rise, but so does trade. it's not just with america. china and australia have seen

growing disputes, attacks and counter-attacks. last year china publicly had 14 grievances with australia and warned, if you make china the enemy, china will be the enemy. and yet chinese purchases of australian goods recently hit a record high. this is why analogies to the cold war don't really capture the unusual nature of today's great power competition. during the cold war, the united states and the soviet union traded at best a few billion dollars' worth of goods every year. today the united states and china trade that much in a matter of days. the soviet union barely existed on the economic map of the free world. it presided over a tightly controlled economic block of communist countries that had few connections in trade or travel with the rest of the planet. mostly its economy was about resources, oil, gas, nickel,

copper, et cetera. china, by contrast, is deeply embedded in the world economy. it is now the leading nation in trading and goods. the vast amount of america traded with nations other than china. china needs american goods for economic growth, but many of america's companies from apple to nike need the markets. the lowest-priced goods for every american has been tied to sources from china. even when you look at something like america's expanding green economy, you see china behind it. those solar panels you see everywhere that have become so

affordable and thus ubiquitous have become so because they were made in china. then there is the roughly $1 trillion worth of american debt that china holds. the united states will need a strategy that mirrors the complexity of this relationship, one in which china is part competitor, part customer, part adversary. some of this the biden administration has done very well, such as bringing america together with china for its human rights abuses. but biden is also challenging the reality that america has close ties with china. most have china as their largest trading partner. countries would like to have strong trading relations with china and often strong geopolitical ties with the u.s. forcing them to choose might create more problems than it solves. adding even more nuance, china is strong but it has not taken

over the world. it faces substantial challenges ahead. it is drained quickly because of the legacy of china's one-child policy. it has not shown it can join the middle income trap forcing large economies to join the ranks of rich ones. china's economy xi jinping is unleashing regulators on the vibrant prooivate sector. and china's new foreign policy has caused a strong backlash from its biggest neighbors, india, australia, japan. last year the philippines renewed an agreement with the united states it long said it was going to end. can we face the complexity of this challenge? it's facing an unequal powerhouse that unlike germany or japan is not dependent on america for its security. it faces a new great power that is not a democracy and has

different values and beliefs. and yet china has not occupied and controlled countries like stalin's russia did during the late 1940s which is what triggered the cold war. and all of this is happening in a world in which international trade has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. it's not a new cold war but something much more complicated, a cold peace. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week. let's get to my main event, dr. fauci, who is the nation's leader for infectious diseases.

dr. fauci, let me ask you the central question people are ponderring right now. we hear about the delta variant, we hear about how it's much more contagious, we hear about breakthrough infections. the question, does the vaccine protect against delta, and if it does, why are people worried? >> the situation is understandably a bit complicated, and that is, if you're asking us what the vaccine will do, that is essentially to protect you from serious illness. the vaccine protects quite well against delta. however, since delta has the capability of transmitting much more efficiently than the previous variants that we had to deal with, and the reason for that is that it replicates extremely well, transmits well,

and when you look in the nasopharynx, the nasal passages are significantly better than it was with the virus. so a minimally symptomatic disease which counts for the breakthroughs we've heard is a bit lower. in fact, the clirng cal trials that got us the vaccines that we had, take, for example, the mrnas, they were 94% to 95% protective against clinical disease. what has happened with delta is that that protection has gone down a bit so that you're going to get more so-called breakthrough infections. but what has held steady, fareed, is the protection against severe disease.

so in the big picture, the vaccines are still doing what you originally want them to do to keep you out of the hospital, to prevent you from getting seriously ill. for the most part, it's doing that very well. so people, when they hear breakthrough infections, we don't take them lightly, because a breakthrough infection causes another problem, because if you do get a breakthrough infection, we know now that vaccinated people, when you get a breakthrough that is unusual, but it does occur, that you can then transmit it to someone else. so it takes on the extra added issue of transmissibletransmiss. so if you get minimum pathology, you have the danger to transfer

it to someone else. so it can be propagated which leads the cdc to modify the guidelines to say, even when you are vaccinated, when you are in a public place in an area of the country that has a high degree of virus such as in the red and orange zones, you should still wear a mask indoors, because of the concern about getting infected, maybe even -- not even knowing you're infected, and then transmitting it to a vulnerable person who might be in your own home, your children or a vulnerable relative or a friend who is on cancer ch chemotherapy. i know that sounds confusing, but that's what happened. what's changed, fareed, is the virus has changed. we went from a virus that was formidable but didn't transmit nearly as well as the virus we're dealing with today, and that's the delta variant. >> and so just to punch that

point, this variant, it's almost like it's a new virus in the sense that it is at least twice as infectious. people can have a thousand times the viral load of the original variant. does that mean that the vaccine, while still effective, might have a shorter time span? i saw that moderna is now saying maybe it's six months protection where people previously thought it was maybe more like a year. >> well, the moderna data that just came out, they only looked up to six months, so it might be beyond that. pfizer is reporting, as we all know, that they're starting to see a diminution in the durability of the protection when they look month by month by month. the bottom line of it all is that we are following very carefully the durability of protection. and when you follow it, you look and see what is the percentage of protection that you get as you go month for month?

and if it turns out which -- you know, it likely will at some time, fareed, that we don't need boosters right now for otherwise healthy people who have been vaccinated, but it is entirely conceivable, if not likely, that we're going to, at some time, what we do is you follow it in realtime, and when you get below a certain threshold, that triggers a recommendation to get a booster. i might add, fareed, it's a little bit different for people who are immunocompromised. people who transplant, people on cancer chemotherapy, people who have immune mediated diseases who require immunosuppression. we know for sure they never did get an adequate response, most of them. not all of them, but most of them. so we need to look at them in a different light than the durability for a normal person. which means we almost certainly will be boosting those people

before we boost the general population that's been vaccinated. and we should be doing that reasonably soon, i believe. >> what about people over 60? israel has begun offering booster shots to people over 60? why not start that right away? >> the reason is we're looking for clear evidence that it should be done. the cdc follows a group of cohorts of individuals, cohorts of the elderly, cohorts of nursing homes, cohorts of younger people. they're following is very carefully, and as soon as they see that that level of durability of protection goes down, then you'll see the recommendation to vaccinate those individuals. >> i want to get back to the original point we were talking about, because it does seem to me -- you're exactly right, it is very confusing and complicated for people. you're now asking people to know whether the area they are in is high risk or low risk.

how are they supposed to do that and, you know, do you understand that people feel as though they were once told to wear masks, then told not to, now they're being told if you're in new york it's okay not to wear it, but if you're in florida, you must wear it. is that just the reality of the science? >> it is the reality, fareed, and you make a very good point. the easiest thing to do is to go on the cdc website and you can see red or orange, but some people might not have the access to that or might not really want to do it. in general, when guidelines change, they change because the virus dynamics is changing. and that's the thing that people need to understand, that the cdc recommendations will change because we were dealing with a much different virus. we'll be back with more in a

moment. i will ask dr. fauci about future variants. is it possible they may evade the vaccine? we'll talk about that when i return. (naj) at fisher investments, our clients know we have their backs. (other money manager) how do your clients know that? (naj) because as a fiduciary, it's our responsibility to always put clients first. (other money manager) so you do it because you have to? (naj) no, we do it because it's the right thing to do. we help clients enjoy a comfortable retirement. (other money manager) sounds like a big responsibility. (naj) one that we don't take lightly. it's why our fees are structured so we do better when our clients do better. fisher investments is clearly different. what happens when we welcome change? we can transform our workforce overnight out of convenience, or necessity. we can explore uncharted waters, and not only make new discoveries, but get there faster, with better outcomes.

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depressed, have sudden changes in mood, behaviors, feelings, or have suicidal thoughts. common side effects include inflammation of the nose and throat, insomnia and sleepiness. don't take austedo if you have liver problems, are taking reserpine, tetrabenazine, or valbenazine. austedo may cause irregular or fast heartbeat, restlessness, movements mimicking parkinson's disease, fever, stiff muscles, problems thinking, and sweating. (man) talk to your doctor about austedo... it's time to treat td. td is not ok. visit askforaustedo.com [sfx: radio being tuned] welcome to allstate. ♪ [band plays] ♪ a place where everyone lives life well-protected. ♪ and even when things go a bit wrong, we've got your back.

here, things work the way you wish they would. and better protection costs a whole lot less. you're in good hands with allstate. click or call for a lower auto rate today. let me ask you what scott gottlieb has been saying, former fda commissioner. he says this variant is going to pass, peak and go away because you have large numbers of people vaccinated, you have large numbers of people infected, and

the combination of those two will provide a kind of herd immunity. and i suppose if you look at britain where the delta variant has begun to decline, that could be the trajectory we could expect. is he right? >> ultimately that is correct. that's the concept of herd immunity. when you get enough people vaccinated together with people who have been infected and assume to have, understandably, likely, have good protection against the same virus. you get to the same level where a virus has no place to go. there are no vulnerable hosts around. ultimately that will happen. however, we want that to happen sooner than later, and you know the way you do that sooner or later? you get people, as many people, vaccinated as quickly as you possibly can. the idea of waiting back, and it's going to happen, anyway, that it's going to have this concept of herd immunity, we want to go and get that to

happen much sooner than later. fareed, there are 93 million people in this country who are eligible to be vaccinated who are not getting vaccinated. you want to get to herd immunity? let's get the people vaccinated and we will be there much quicker than just letting things happen. that's not an option, because when you do that, people get very sick, people get hospitalized and people die. and the people who get covid, i would much rather get vaccinated and not get covid than get covid and then be protected. because with covid, besides the risk of getting seriously ill, there is a thing called long covid, which means you may get moderate to mild illness, recover viroligically and then

go forever with no symptoms. we are capable as a nation to have a highly effective vaccine, more than we even are using. so let's utilize that. because there are people in the world who would do anything to get vaccinated. and yet we have the tool to do it. so we owe it to ourselves and we owe it to them to get that done. >> the virus keeps adapting. could we imagine or are we likely to see another variant perhaps more transmissible or more difficult to deal with than delta if delta is conquered? >> the answer is, correct, that you are correct, fareed. if, in fact, you allow the virus to continue to spread, you give it the opportunity to mutate. there is a very strong tenet in virology, and that is that viruses can't mutate if they don't replicate.

if you give them the opportunity to spread, you are giving them ample room to mutate. now, not every mutation is going to wind up being functionally important. but if you let it mutate enough, sooner or later you may get a constellation of mutations that would lead to a variant that might evade the vaccine much more than the current delta is evading. it might be as replication competent, but even more serious, which gets back again, fareed, to the recurring theme. you can prevent that from happening by getting people vaccinated and not allowing the virus the freedom to freely go around, infect people and mutate. we have the solution, we just need to implement it. >> let me ask you about an article you wrote, you

co-authored about a year ago in which you spoke about the fact that we were in an age of accelerating pandemics. i think we all understand the reasons why. humans are getting closer to wild animals. you have these wet markets. you have things like factory farming in this country which seem to me kind of an invitation for the next pandemic. are we doing enough to think about this problem at that systemic level that you talked about in that article? >> we are certainly thinking about it and hopefully doing it. right now, fareed, as we are in the midst of this challenging outbreak, we are looking forward with a concept of pandemic preparedness from a public health, from a scientific and from an environmental standpoint. we have to learn the lessons of this extraordinary tragedy that we're going through now, the worst experience this planet has had in over 100 years.

we must learn the lessons and you do that by looking ahead and saying, what are the individual things that we've learned? what are the public health things we need to prepare for? what's the scientific preparation? what about the human animal interface that if we don't look at that seriously, you're going to continue to have the evolution of new microbes. 75% of the new pathogens that inflict man jump from a host to man. you can do that at your own risk because we've seen what happens when you don't pay attention to it. >> dr. anthony fauci, a real pleasure having you on. >> thank you for having me, fareed. a great pleasure. thank you. next on "gps," americans seem to have a not so simple

crush on the nation of hung ar and its almost democratic minister, victor orban. what's going on there? i will be back with my panel. n. i love making brides feel beautiful. a lot of times when i'm doing weddings, it's six or seven hours on my feet. i have a thyroid condition. and so i need medication so that i can have the energy to do what i love to do. previously, i couldn't afford health insurance and this year i went on healthcare.gov and prices were great. now my monthly premium is zero. the process was easy. it took me minutes to apply and get approved. if i could do it. anybody can do it. listerine® cleans virtually 100%. helping to prevent gum disease and bad breath. never settle for 25%.

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fox news' tucker carlson topped off a week of coverage in hungary with a speech yesterday in which he denigrated america. he had nothing but praise for hungary.

hungary is an increasingly autocratic nation which is significantly less free than america. reporters without borders calls prime minister victor orban the oppressor of freedom. we have emery here with us. emery, let's start with you. tell us what this is about. >> if we're talking about tucker carlson, it's a great way for him to get a subject matter for a week. this is about what you wrote about 20 years ago, fareed, liberal democracy. orban has always said hungary is

a version of liberal democracy. his vision has a really deep patriarchal strand, that women should be in women's roles and fertile. this view of conservatism is now being mixed with orban with racial purity. he has maintained his grip on power by demonizing immigrants, and he said openly, we don't want to be diverse, we don't want our color mixed with anybody else, we don't want our culture and our traditions. that's something that tucker carlson and many other conservatives, because many others have been admirers of orororn, or at least trump conserv conservatives, that's very close to their views of keeping immigrants out, and the key is making sure that white

christians are much more fertile. >> ian, this does strike me as a fascinating evolution on the right. you think with free markets and things like that, hungary is not much of a model. it's a middle income european country. it has the stage of intervenes in the country at all times in all kinds of ways. this is not really denmark or hong kong in its old free market days. the key seems to be this cultural conservatism that anne-marie was talking about, and particularly think about immigration. it focuses on issues of race and culture. is that the new conservatism on the right, do you think? >> it's anti-globalism. it's concern that free markets and open borders have left native cultures as they're being

left very vulnerable and left behind. that's what tucker carlson, who is the most watched character on cable news, almost 3 million nightly viewers, not that he needs to go to hungary to maintain that viewership, but he sees an alignment on key issues here with where the trump republican party is going. he went to the border, hungary's border with serbia, and portrayed it with what trump was trying to do with the border of mexico, and now biden is failing. limits of immigration. protecting families and the middle class. defending real europe as opposed to angela merkel letting everyone in. and in defense of a native population and culture. and all of this positions orban and trump and people like --

anne-marie slaughter talking about childless women are the problem and destroying the united states. this is the broader culture war that the trump party is really aligning toward. that's what this trip to hungary was all about. i think it resonates with the republican base right now in a very significant way. >> anne-marie, i want to pick up on that point. the strong view of women that is implicit, can it work in 2021? it feels like such a throwback. >> it does. and, look, you can be deeply pro-family without believing that it has to require women raising children and having children and doing nothing else. i tend to think there is a faux

family strand here that recognizes men and women should be free to make whatever choices they want to make. and i think this is a hard sell, but it does have real resonance on the religious right, and again, he's mixing it with the racial purity idea that is quite scary. >> anne-marie and ian, stay with me. we'll be back in a moment. i want to talk about afghanistan. the taliban is seizing control of major cities now. when we come back. ths old

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advil targets pain. acetaminophen blocks it. advil dual action. fast pain relief that lasts 8 hours. the taliban has seized control of a population of about 400,000. it's the largest city they've taken control of as the u.s. finalizes its withdrawal. we're back with anne-marie and ian. ian, tell us what you make of this. is this the beginning of the end, or is this the beginning of a chance for the afghan

government to show that it can hold its own. they are claiming they will be able to take back control from the taliban. >> sadly, i think they're done. the state department put out a statement a couple hours ago, saying if the taliban wants legitimacy, they have to stop the attacks. we're leaving, of course, as you know, so the taliban i expect are going to take over. the biden administration knows that, which is one of the reasons why they decided to end the war because they thought it was a question of when, not if. but it's happening faster than white house advisors thought it would. but this is an embarrassment. that's why trump wanted out, that's why biden wanted out, too. there will be a lot of people on the ground who will be under duress and this will be a much bigger problem for pakistan and

af afghanistan. this handoff will be tough for america. >> anne-marie, do you think america should keep their troops in afghanistan? >> fareed, i don't think so. there will be lots of posts about how we could have done better, could have kept a few troops there, but the taliban have steadily been making gains for the past decade while american troops have been there. so the writing has been on the wall. it is, as ian says, happening faster now and it's going to be very painful. we're going to remember scenes the way some of us remember 1975 and leaving south vietnam. but the real focus now ought to be on regional diplomacy, ought to be on working with india, pakistan, china, the countries around to try to put pressure on the government that's going to emerge. this has been a slow-motion disaster for a long time and now

it's speeding up. it's painful to watch, but i still think biden was right. >> ian, picking up on anne-marie's point, it does seem part of the problem in afghanistan has always been outside interference. it's very difficult, close to impossible, to win against an insurgency like the taliban that has a safe haven in pakistan, aided, encouraged, financed by the pakistan military. similarly, it's difficult to imagine a settlement without getting the chinese involved, without getting the iranians involved. they were instrumental in helping the first time when we toppled the taliban. yet the biden administration does not seem to have good negotiating relations with either iran or afghanistan. should it be reversing that and trying to figure out a way to talk to both those parties so we help stabilize afghanistan? >> yes, but it's late. the time to have reversed that would have been when we hadn't yet made the announcement that

all troops were leaving by 9/11. again, it's pretty clear that the politics support that in the united states, both under trump and under biden. the chinese don't want us to leave. as much as american humiliation in this war may serve the purposes of some hard line hawks in china is the concern, they're the ones that will have to start funding the taliban and supporting that government. they're the ones that will take a backlash as it falls apart. you'll start to see anti-chinese attacks happening on the ground and pakistan gets to help china. they should have been talking to the chinese. if we stay to some degree, how much money would you put? could there be trust? but the relationship between the united states and china, and in addition, pakistan, which exists right now means that conversation was inconceivable.

even as a third order priority, america thinks there will be blowback with the taliban. in these days we're more than happy to let them have it. >> anne-marie, i've got 30 seconds. sorry to give it to you with such a time constraint, but, you know, people talk about the human rights abuses that could follow, particularly the fate of women. do you have a final quick thought on that? >> this is going to be awful to watch. the taliban treatment of women in the 1990s was excruciating in terms of really keeping women prisoners in their own houses. i think it will be some better this time around, but i also think that we, the united states, are going to have to accept that a lot of the progress that we made with a lot of women is going to be rolled back and ultimately, again, its

diplomatic pressure not alone through the region to push the taliban toward at least a semi-reasonable stance like many other nations. but it's going to be very, very hard to watch. >> anne-marie slaughter, ian bremer, good to have both of you on. next on "gps," if we can pull off the awesome logistical feat of the olympics, why can't we vaccinate the world? when we come back. be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. (judith) in this market, you'll find fisher investments is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? don't you just ride the wave? (judith) no - we actively manage client portfolios based on our forward-looking views of the market. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions, right? (judith) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest.

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and now for the last look. this morning after 19 days of competition and 339 medal events, the olympic flame was at last extinguished to mark the end of tokyo's closing ceremonies. there are plenty of critiques to make about these games, but it's also undeniable that this year more than ever, the olympic games stood as a testament to perseverance. i'm not talking about the perseverance of individual athletes, impressive though it was, but rather the collective perseverance that made these games possible. the tokyo olympics was a mammoth operational feat. it involved getting some 11,000 athletes from more than 200 countries into japan's capital, which for weeks has been under a

state of emergency due to a surge of covid-19. the sri lanka olympic committee told the olympic committee that because of a certain route, the athletes had to make plans for a flying route through qatar. but at least they made it, unlike the island federation of fiji where commercial flights are scarce. undeterred, the athletes hitched a ride on a cargo plane, one which normally carries frozen seafood on it. 3 million tons of sand were shipped to japan for the beach volleyball competition. they reportedly sent 20 tons on 20 different kacontainers, beginning the process three years ago.

they managed to get several tons on one shipping container. there wasn't only the athletes and gear that had to make its way to tokyo. there were 300 animals competing in jumping and dressage. they departed from belgium last month carrying 36 horses and tons of feed. all 36 horses had to quarantine before the flight, of course. then there was the perseverance of the olympic organizers themselves. amid a shortage of medical workers, they had to make the massive olympic beds as safe as possible. people were for bidden from singing or cheering. the fever clinic had workers

isolated. as of friday, there were 358 positive coronavirus cases reported at the olympic games. it's not an insignificant number, but for what we know right now, it does not appear to be the superspreader event many feared. all in all, the tokyo olympics was a triumph of logistics and of global cooperation during the biggest health crisis of the century. getting it done was an amazing feat of ingenuity. i hope we can take inspiration from it and use it for an entirely different aim, v vaccinating the world. 50% of rich countries are vaccinated compared to 4% of poor countries. rich countries are planning for booster shots while poor countries only got their first shipment of vaccines. the virus will only start

mutating and the pandemic will only end when the world is vacc vaccinating. so let's take the lesson of the olympic games and apply it to the need of the moment. as the olympics shows us, we certainly can do it. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week, and i will see you next week. . which is why the scientific expertise that helps operating rooms stay clean now helps the places you go too. look for the ecolab science certified seal. advil dual action fights pain 2 ways. it's the first and only fda approved combination of advil plus acetaminophen. advil targets pain. acetaminophen blocks it. advil dual action. fast pain relief that lasts 8 hours.

so what's going on? [dog] i'm a talking dog. the other issue. [dog] oh...i'm scratching like crazy. you've got some allergic itch with skin inflammation. apoquel can work on that itch in as little as 4 hours, whether it's a new or chronic problem. and apoquel's treated over 9 million dogs. [dog] nice. and... the talking dog thing? is it bothering you? no... itching like a dog is bothering me. until dogs can speak for themselves, you have to. when allergic itch is a problem, ask for apoquel. apoquel is for the control of itch associated with allergic dermatitis and the control of atopic dermatitis in dogs. do not use apoquel in dogs less than 12 months old or those with serious infections. apoquel may increase the chances of developing serious infections and may cause existing parasitic skin infestations or pre-existing cancers to worsen. new neoplasias were observed in clinical studies and post-approval. most common side effects are vomiting and diarrhea.

feeling better? [dog] i'm speechless. [dog] thanks for the apoquel. that's what friends are for. ask your veterinarian for apoquel. next to you, apoquel is a dog's best friend. i was a dj and recording artist. now i'm a small cafe owner. i wasn't really taking my health seriously, but it was always in the back of my mind, you know, like what if something were to happen? i already had insurance through healthcare.gov but i heard i could save even more money. so i went and updated my application. the fact that i was able to find something affordable, it gives me peace of mind and it gives my family peace of mind too. if you think you can't afford health insurance, you can.

i'm brian stelter live in new york, and this is "reliable sources." we'll examine the story behind the story and figure out what is reliable. this week, the cohen brothers. th