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tv   Smerconish  CNN  August 21, 2021 6:00am-7:00am PDT

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was it all in vain? i'm michael smerconish live from hudson yards in new york city. that question was addressed by my first guest in an essay he co-authored for "usa today." a writing for amy mcgrath, michael o'hanlon, senior director of foreign policy at the brookings institution argued that those americans who fought in afghanistan exhibited valor and dignity and made a major difference for u.s. security. i agree. and it's an important distinction to note that we're now in the midst of a messy
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withdrawal and just three weeks from the 20th anniversary of 9/11. soon, we'll reflect on the contribution of 2,443 americans who died fighting in afghanistan and the more than 20,000 injured there. was their sacrifice all in vain? no way. just justice demanded a response after 19 hijackers unleashed an unprovoked attack that killed 3,000 incident americans. the united states was wholly justified in hunting down those responsible and their enablers. that's why we went to afghanistan, and the men and women who answered their nation's call were responding to a noble purpose. to the extent mistakes were made and there were that doesn't bear on the sacrifice and service of those with boots on the ground. it wasn't they too decided instead of a law enforcement, focused sniper approach going only after those who caused 9/11, instead, we would end up responding with a proverbial shotgun blast. in this country, we have
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civilian control over our military. the rank and file had no say into whether we would turn deserved retribution on democracy based on the correcting leaders corrects all ills. and those overseas weren't the ones who perpetrated the foley that took us to iraq. think about those that you know who went to afghanistan often for several tours of duty. they rightly believed they were there to avenge the losses of 9/11. and in that mission they succeeded. now and in the future, history will judge our political leaders spanning both forward and forward administrations for current events in afghanistan. but the way we should regard those who answered the bell requires no similar deliberation. what a miscarriage it would be if any of them thought for a moment that what we're now witnessing is a reflection of their service. it is not. case closed. and now, it's time to look forward to all of those short, mid and long-term problems
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resulting from the carnage of our hasty exit. decisions have to be made about the scope of our operation, who to save and what to do with the myriad of weapons we left behind. and how to ensure we never repeat the many mistakes that are part of our legacy in afghanistan. joining me now is michael o'hanlon. he's also the author of several books most recently the art of war in an age of piece u.s. grant strategy and resolute restraint. michael you motivated today's opening commentary. what do you want to add to it? >> well, michael, thank you, thanks to all of our men and women in uniform, as well as our diplomats, aid workers, ngo workers, a lot of those very brave in afghanistan. as you said, they accomplished a lot. they kept us safe for 20 years. the point i would make, on september 12th, 2001, the day
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after 9/11, you had told the eu or the bush administration officials or barack obama, the aspiring senator at that point if you would say that there are 100 million americans sold as an excellent outcome of 100 million skilled in isis or al qaeda inspired attacks on american soil over 20 years. that is a remarkable testament to keeping us safe here at home by all those who contributed including military forces abroad, homeland security, a lot of people worked hard. certainly the extremists would have likely done another 9/11 or worse. i think that's where my congratulations and my thanks really begin. with that basic fact, we've had far less terrorist violence on american soil these last 20 years than i would have
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predicted on september 12th, 2001. >> let's talk about the events in afghanistan. here's the screen. i'll share it with you first, was the situation in afghanistan inevitable or the result of policymaking mistakes? you say what? >> i think it was largely as a result of mistakes. but i don't think we know what would have happened if we played this out five or ten more years. when president biden says, for example it would have been the same regardless of when we left. he might right. he might wrong. a lot of things can change with the afghan government. it's true they were not making positive necessary progress while we were there but also true they were decimated by human war and they need lucky breaks. so we don't know what lucky breaks might have happened if we stayed on longer. i think in addition to the mistakes made before president biden pulling the plug was a
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major error. >> here's what the president said exactly on this issue yesterday. >> if we had decided 15 years ago to leave afghanistan, it would have been really difficult. if we decided five years ago, if we start -- if we wanted to work for another decade and tried to leave, there's no way in which we'd be able to leave afghanistan without there being some of what you're seeing now. >> michael, to his point, doesn't the pace of the collapse, i think it was 11 days, that's the way history will record it, doesn't that underscore what president biden was saying? that this was inevitable? >> no. i don't think, michael. because we pulled the plug on a strategy that we had help build and that we had given the afghans to think would bed mely transitioned to their care. when you make an announcement in april of 2021 that you're going
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to go by august but you don't give that government a time for a working air force. by the way, we set the schedule for how fast. they did not do their part very well at times but we set the schedule. and then we decided to leave abruptly. of course, they're going to reassess. many afghans are going to rather surrender in that situation once a certain momentum builds. i just don't know we can know the future or claim to know the future. a lot of afghans have fought very hard. several thousands of soldiers have died each year for the fight. and the notion of that and what we acknowledge when you radically transform the strategy and essentially pull the plug on our part of it expecting them to fight the same way is not realistic. >> quick question, i was drawn to your work in the aftermath of september 11, you used to
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analyze granular detail about life in afghanistan and iraq. things like phone subscriptions and employment. troops and how many we lost. what's the bottom line, did we improve their lives while we were there or not? >> yes, materially very much so. in terms of education, very much so. there's a long way to go. a lot of that will be lost. and of course, the violence in the last ten or 15 years. but in terms of education, health, overall quality of life, overall prosperity, afghanistan became much better over the 20 years. >> okay. let's hope that those positive changes outlast our involvement. michael o'hanlon, thank you for being here. i really appreciate it. >> michael, thanks to you. >> what are your thoughts, tweet me at smerconish. on the facebook bepage. what do we have? twitter getting out of afghanistan not the problem. the nonplan of bind and his
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military advisers is the problem. what do you think is going to happen? look, i will defend the decision and the courage it took to get out. i think there's truth. me, personally, i think there's truth in what the president said yesterday that this is the result we would have seen 5, 15 or 50 years from now. michael o'hanlon disagrees with me. if you watched last weekend, peter bergland also disagreed with me. was the situation in afghanistan inevitable or the result of policymaking mistakes? up ahead, sean penn is here, he directed and co-stars with his daughter dylan in a new movie that he says he does not want you to see if you're not vaccinated? and tesla, they've been involved in nudgeenough crashes
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although the senate was not in session this week, covid was. how unfortunate but poignant that three senators from across the political spectrum, colorado democrat john hickenlooper, maine independent angus king, mississippi republican roger wicker all announced they had tested positive for the virus. this, despite the fact that all three had been vaccinateso these were breakthrough infections
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which have become more rampant with the delta variant. but it's important to remember out of 166 million fully vaccinated americans, only 8,000 breakthrough cases have resulted in severe disease or death. in a statement king stressed he'd been following all masking and social distancing protocols. their diagnoses make the total number of senators who tested positive 11. more than 50 house members have also tested positive on both sides of the aisle. among several other lawmakers testing positive this summer was south carolina republican senator lindsey graham who tested positive after attending a gathering hosted by democratic senator joe manchin. then there's texas governor greg abbott who has opposed mask mandates and issued executive orders banning school districts from requiring masks. on tuesday, abbott despite getting the vaccine and a booster joining the surging number of positive cases plaguing his state. have any lessons been determined. graham said in a follow-up tweet, i'm very glad i was
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vaccinated without vaccination i'm certain i would not feel as well as i do now. my symptoms would be far worse. my takeaway? response to the pandemic like so much else is now partisan. we see it in debates about masks for schools, rules for businesses, part affiliation is often a predictor of approach. one thing cuts across party lines -- the virus. covid-19 cares not whether you're an "r," a "d" or an "i" ask senators wicker, hickenlooper and king. coming up in the studio, sean penn live in hudson yards in new york city. he's got a fabulous new movie just released last night. rapid wrinkle repair® smooths the look of fine lines in 1-week, deep wrinkles in 4. so you can kiss wrinkles goodbye! neutrogena® (naj) at fisher investments, our clients know we
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actor and director sean penn has a new movie out, but he's telling people not to go see it in theaters, that is, if they're unvaccinated. "flag day "account which penn both directed and stars in with this 30-year-old daughter dylan tell the story of america's most notorious counterfeiter john vogel. >> dad what do you do? >> what do you mean what do i do? >> for a living. what do you do for a living? >> you know what i do for a living. i'm an entrepreneur, my skill is opportunities. >> like what? >> for instance, i got a whole raft of businesses. i'm working very broad portfolio, when you work it that way, you don't depend on one business to be your bread and
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winner. yield goes down on one, pops up on another. the good news is i'm doing really great with that. >> i love the movie. congratulations. thanks, by the way, for being here. i really appreciate this. >> thank you, it's good to be here with you. >> so, i'm a big bryan cranston "breaking bad" fan. he plays walter white on the wrong side of the law but i'm rooting for him. john vogel, wrong side of the law. but i'm rooting for him, rooting for you in the movie. speak to that. >> i think it speaks to we're all flawed and there's a beating heart in all of us. i think with good writing, you know, the beating heart shows through and we can find empathy. the vogel character is an extreme. and also i think that there are themes of just the correspond corrosive nature of deception in this movie.
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and he -- a lot of that is rooted in self-deception. >> he's a counterfeiter, struggling to maintain relationships with his kids. i should have mentioned hopper as well. although hopper plays a smaller role, your son, than does dylan. dylan is fabulous. real terrific. it's fun to watch you interacting on the screen with your own kids about a character struggling to maintain his own relationship with his own children. what was it like not only to direct yourself for the first time but also direct your children? >> it was an extraordinary experience. it's not something i would have chosen to do. to direct the movie, decide to act in it, 30 days out, the actor that was going to play john vogel had family issues and was not able to do the film. we were on a countdown, the only way to make the movie happen was to jump in and do it. i'm so glad that happened.
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directing is a 17 1/2-hour a day job to begin with. i didn't know i could squeeze in the time to focus on the character but there are other things on that, i didn't have to negotiate the ego politics of two actors in a scene. i could bring my nuts and bolts and get that done. and focus on, particularly, dylan, playing jennifer, a great character of the story and going to focus on that anyway. >> was the studio and those involved in the making of the picture cool with you saying don't come to the theater if you're unvaccinated? how did that go over internally? >> well, let me say this, i am so grateful that audiences and, yes, it will come around, too, that i would request that only vaccinated audiences have an opportunity to see this
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theatrically. it's rare these days that is exclusively theatrical, and eventually, it will stream. that's a better time for the unvaccinated to see it, though, i'll probably offend them out of this choice in this. but there are enough vaccinated people and i hope with safe practices they'll go see "flag day." sean, this is not a one-off -- by the way, it's great to have you talk about these contemporary issues rather than knowing you're 3,000 miles away texting me and having your thoughts so i'd glad to have you talk about political matters as well as the movie. it's not like your reaction has been a one-off. you've been very consistent. you've taken the lead through your nonprofit core. everything we watched, dodger stadium, right, you had a hand in it, and then rolled it out in 47 other locations. so this is part of sean penn's
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extreme volunteerism. how come? why did this get added to the list of haiti and so many other causes of which you've been involved? >> you know, for me, working in movies or working in, i suppose, service is the way -- it's something i pursued. it's something that i believe i missed out on by it not being mandatory in this country. >> service? >> yes. >> like israels? >> yeah, whether you do military service or forestry or work with the elderly. >> right. >> some compliment to service at a young age establishes the principle that people can actually make a difference. i accidented into what came core because of going to haiti for the first time. with vaccination and testing here, that was just an extension of the work we've been doing down there. we're vaccinating now in haiti. and of course responding to the
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recent earthquake in the southwest. >> so, not only for the brand-new movie. but you as have a television series in production right now, you're going to play -- i can't wait to see this -- you're going to play in gas lit john mitchell, richard nixon's attorney. were you immersed in all things watergate these days? >> i have been. >> what did you learn that you didn't know? >> what's interesting about "gas lit" it's interesting, it's about everybody but nixon. what was going on that their personal lives, the deans, the mitchells, all and beyond. i had as a kid, when that summer came up as hearings, i was a kid, and i was a dude, i was a surfer out on water. but i wasn't out there on the water during those hearings. i don't know why. it was the beginning of my fascination with american poli
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politician. >> for "gas lit" the production, you made headlines. help me understand this, some folks needed to be vaccinated but not the entire production. and you said what, explain that to us? >> well, they have zone one. zone one is anybody who works close to actor. actors are protected. but if a stagehand is working alongside a stagehand who is not protected then they can get sick. i didn't want to feel complicit in something that was just taking care of one group and not the other. and i do believe that everyone should get vaccinated. i believe it should be mandatory, like turning your headlights on in the car at night. but obviously, that's not going to happen tomorrow. at least it can happen in some areas. a lot of businesses are starting to take the lead on that. i'll go back to "gas lit" when i can assure 100% of the crew has
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gotten vaccinated. >> has that been resolved? >> i believe it's been resolved. a lot of this comes from weak leadership in some who are too concerned about fringe constituencies within and not concerned enough about common sense. >> so, we're here at cnn what i consider to be the headquarters in new york city. there's a mandatory vaccination policy here. i'm affiliated with a law firm in philadelphia, there is a mandatory -- so, i'm completely on board and comfortable with you on this issue. i imagine that you, like me, have some folks in your orbit who are still vax-resistant. what is it you say to them? >> well, actually, the people who continue to be vax-resistant now, i think there's only two categories. there are those that once the fda gives full approval, they'll go forward with it. and that there are those who have become entranche in the
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kind of radical libertarianism that forgets in american history, it's all based on being independent, because we understand interdependency. the entire history of successful things if this country. if we're going to continue with successful things if we're going to take some of the great lessons that have been learned in the last year, some of the extraordinary movements, george floyd, all of what's happening societally, if we're going to take the good parts of that and move it forward we're going to do it interdependently, and i think vaccination is the beginning of that, given that it's such a threat to business, to lifestyle, to life here and around the world. >> i mean, i'm a great respecter of individual liberties. i respect the flag. this is not a seat belt. if the issue is not to wear a
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seat belt, if you don't wear a seat belt, you're going to add to my insurance premiums. but this is you running the risk of contaminating everybody in society. >> i have strong areas in the strong belief in the second amendment, but i think you need to recognize how -- you know, with something like this, you can't go around pointing a gun in somebody's face which is what it is when people are unvaccinated. >> got it. finally, off to haiti? >> yes. >> what happens next? >> well, we have been from day one with our heavy equipment, crews, we've got 30,000 metric tons of rubble out, still finding bodies. it's really awful. the circumstances there. it's very explic complicated. our medical teams are treating hundreds of people, from traumatic injuries to gastrointestinal issues from the rains and so phone.
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to infants to the elderly. we've pushed folder with the organizations, world central kitchen, direct relief and others and haitian government and seeing what we can do and working side by side with our haitian staff. hopefully, that can be something of impact. >> by the way, for more information about sean's disaster relief charity core, you can go to core response.org. it's a great profile of you this week in "the washington post." and julia roberts is quoted in it, quoting you saying, and i get it now, emergency is your happy place. >> well, what it is, is that i just find -- as it turns out i have the temperament for it. and so i feel, when that's the case, one feels productive. and you kind of go where you feel productive. >> good for you. you watch the show. you know i get social media. i don't see what's coming. i like to respond in realtime. you want to do it with me?
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>> i'll give it a go. >> what's come in, kathryn, mr. penn is in the house. he wants to see. i know @sean penn is a divisive figure, i do not agree with everything i've heard him say through the years but you know nothing about acting or talent if you do not realize he is one of the finest actors in his time and history. i will watch him in anything he chooses to do. do you ever stop and think, this is what i want to say about vaccination or haiti, but, boy, people aren't going to show up and buy tickets. it doesn't seem like any of that is consideration for you today? >> i don't think it can be, today. and yet there are times when we look back, we always -- at least i was always taught, speak up. especially when you have a microphone that somebody else doesn't have. you know, you speak for them where you can. but i do think there are times to remain silent today because there's certain things -- not forever.
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but to remain silent long enough to process big complicated issues and not join the fray of the problem, like the social media, this stuff, it's that de facto town square which is great democratization, except when it gets too crowded it's so loud you can't hear a single voice. and sometimes, i'd look to pause and hear the others. >> you're the antithesis of michael jordan saying republicans buy sneakers, too, i'm going to take a pass. you released a movie yesterday and said, you know, if you're not vaccinated, please don't come to the theater. >> you know, yes, i did. but shouldn't that be what people do? >> yeah. i agree. >> yeah. >> okay. one more. you know i also have a survey question every week. i don't know if you're prepared for this one. kathryn, do you want to hit me with the survey question? pop that survey question up and let's see what sean is thinking -- was the situation in
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afghanistan today -- boy, aren't you glad you showed up today -- was the situation in afghanistan today inevitable or the result of policymaking mistakes? as you watch what's going on, on television, what are you thinking? >> i'm thinking that this time, i firmly agree with the idea that there will be after-action review. but right now, there's an emergency for the people of afghanistan who helped us, for the women of afghanistan and for our american troops. and our american contractors. were have -- we have to put all of our focus on that right now. i'd be happy to come back when i've done my processing of the rest and talk about what's inevitable and what's not. >> really appreciate you coming by. thanks. >> thanks very much. >> good to have the exchange. up ahead, since january of 2018, tesla's in autopilot mode have been involved in at least
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serious allergic reactions may occur. tremfya® may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. tremfya®. emerge tremfyant™. janssen can help you explore cost support options. our self-driving car functions safe for the roadways? are their crashes the fault of technology or the all too common human operators? the news that has been full of stories lately is of tesla crashes using the autopilot function including one where a drunk driver fell asleep at the
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wheel. another where a driver on a call dropped his phone and bent down trying to retrieve it. and on monday, the national highway traffic association reported it what opened an autopilot, aka the steering system in thousands of electric cars. new investigation was prompted by 11 accidents since january of 2018 chairman tesla using autopilot drove into park first responder units and killing and injuring 17 people. with more than two dozen crashes involving autopilot the agency says eight of those crashes resulted in a total of ten deaths. safety experts and regulators have been scrutinizing tesla's autopilot since the first failed accident involves the incident was reported in 2016. but in that case, there was no fault found in the design. according to the "the new york times" in cases brought against tesla, the company has maintained any blame rests
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solely with the drivers. and with the company's ai day on thursday it spent much of the event still touting its self-driving systems. joining me missy cummings associate director at duke university. dr. cummings, i'm so glad to have you. i'm fascinated by the idea that you flew f-18s, landed on aircraft carriers. how much did you surrender to machines and computers in that process? >> well, it was actually seeing how much automation was coming and realizing that as a person i would not be that important anymore in flying an aircraft. that was the big motivator for me to move along to academia. >> how much of a factor is boredom in this conversation? >> i think it's a huge factor. i think that boredom plus our inability to have sustained
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attention, especially when we know that our cell phones or there there are other distractions easily available. i think it makes a huge difference in vehicles. >> if i -- full disclosure, i drive a tesla, and i love it. and i use the function that we're now discussing. and my own perspective is one of these crashes largely being the result of human factors. i want to put that on the table, and you can certainly respond to it. when i read in about these different accidents esee people making mistakes like they do, with or without the so-called autopilot function. like the guy who dropped the phone and then bends down to pick up the phone. and bad things then ensue. or the driver that was drunk shouldn't have been drunk. so what's your reaction? >> well, it's true that tesla does make it clear in the manuals that you always need to be in control. and despite the public advertising of full self-driving or autopilot, that, the human, are in control.
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so there's no disputing that tesla, at least from a legal standpoint understands that the driver is supposed to be under control. but the problem is, that humans again because they get easily bored, and they see that the car is good enough. and we've seen this for more than 20 years. and it's researched that if automation or autonomy is pretty good, even if it's deeply flawed people will still basically see the automation as legitimate authority. and then start to engage in encomplicency, distraction. and indeed the car lulls people into a false sense of security. i dropped my phone, what could happen? i'm just going to reach down and pick up my phone. what bad thing can happen? and i think that's the problem. and in just half a second a lot of really bad things can happen in a car. >> is part of a problem the semantic issue, dr. cummings? would you advise tesla to lose the name autopilot? i think we're at level 2.
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true autopilot would be level 5. we're not there. that's jetson kind of stuff. but maybe it gets in the head of drivers in a way that makes them overly reliant on those -- those abilities that the car has, or doesn't have? >> yeah. i actually do think words matter. we should not be using words like autopilot and full self-driving is. because it does convey to the people that the car is more capable than it is. i can assure you right now there are a set of people on twitter angry we me for speaking out. i want to be clear, this isn't just a tesla problem. this is problem is going to be increasingly in our faces as we start to see more quote/unquote hands-free driving from other cars. yes, indeed, that phrase which is not a tesla phrase, it's for the rest of the automotive industry, i think we should get rid of the phrase "hands-free"
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because hands-free equates mind-free. >> elon musk said we're safer with machines than humans. i'm inclined to agree with him when the technology is perfected. what's your answer? >> i would say that's true for some machines but not his machine. >> or not yet for his machine? >> right. not yet. but i think that there's still a huge gulf that we've got to get across before this machines are anything close to safer than a typical human driver. >> and, finally, to your point, i mean, apple, i think, just hired 1,000 engineers. google is getting in this space. i think you're involved, doing some work for them, correct me if i'm wrong, general motors as well. why is it that tesla gets singled out for this conversation? >> i do think tesla gets singled out. in one case it just shows you how much further ahead and how
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much more risk they were willing to take. so, i do think tesla is singled out right now. their cars are -- i would say -- the most advanced autonomous technology available to the public but other manufacturers are coming but as i just said, look, no technology driving, until we get to level 4, which is where the car can drive itself and you can reach your book or check your email, no one should be hands-free until we get to that point. >> dr. cummings, thanks for being here. appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. still to come your best tweets and the facebook version, have you voted? go to smerconish.com, was the situation until afghanistan today inevitable or the result of policymaking mistakes? can't wait to see that answer.
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see how you responded to the survey question at smerconish.com. was the situation in afghanistan today inevitable or the result of policymaking mistakes? what is the result to this? two-thirds, let's call it, 65% of more than 15,000 say inevitable. 35%, policymaking. of course, the correct answer is both. but i didn't give you that option. that is the right answer, as between the two choices that i did give you. and i think the president, wrong in terms of the execution of this for sure, can't defend that. but what he said yesterday about 5 years, 15 years, 50 years, i tend to agree with. here's some of what you thought during the course of the week.
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the outcome was inevitable. we just drug it out for 20 years because we didn't know how to get out. every other president kept kicking the can down the road. somebody had to suck it up. it had to be done regardless of the chaotic exit. it had to be done. those are my sentiments. i agree. the mistake that was made in afghanistan, as i said in the opening commentary, is the way in which we went in. it should have been a more surgical, sniper approach, not a shotgun blast. we surely should not have tried to engage in regime change and democracy building. go get bin laden. get those responsible. get the hell out. what else came in during the course of the program? smerconish, that interview with sean penn was fantastic. only wish you'd asked him if playing spercoli was his greatest performance. that, of course, was on my mind. i thought it would have been much too fan boy if i had raised that. you think i didn't want to talk about "mystic river"? you think i didn't want to talk about "fast times," "the game,"?
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love that. he is in a secondary role to michael douglas. he earned respect from me when he was on "c urb." i thinknalefinale. he is a deep thinker, and i appreciated having him here. that's cool. do i have time for more one? honestly, i'm not a great driver, so even with the flaws, it probably is safer than me driving. jen, i'd rather have tesla's machinery and automation than i would human factors, like the guy who drops his phone and bends down to pick it up and, what, we're surprised he's in an accident? reminder to join cnn for "we love new york city," the homecoming concert. it's a once in a lifetime concert event tonight. 5:00 p.m. eastern. exclusively on cnn. that does it for me. have a great weekend. i'll see you next week.
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because we're building a better network every single day. good morning to you. grateful for your company. it is saturday, august 21st. i'm christi paul. >> good morning. i'm boris sanchez. you are live in the cnn "newsline." this morning, more than 40 million americans in the northeast are in the path of what could be the first hurricane to hit new england in more than 30 years. right now, henri is about 200 miles off the coast of north carolina. a tropical storm warning is already in effect in new york city, as connecticut and massachusetts both declare states of emergency in preparation for the storm. >> henri is expected to reach hurricane strength later today, likely to make landfall on new york's long island midday
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tomorrow. this is a storm that could bring life-threatening storm sumrges, heavy rain, even a tornado. allison chinchar is live in the weather center tracking the path here. what are you hearing at this hour, allison? >> right. all eyes really are now on the not one, but two different hurricane hunter flights investigating the storm. this is where we get a lot of our good, realtime delay that. most measurements coming out, between the 70 to 75-mile-per-hour range, consistent with the current sustained winds of 70 miles per hour. we have started to see the pressure drop, meaning the storm is strengthening. it is expected to continue to do so for the remainder of the day today. then continuing its track off to the north. then we start to notice a very sharp turn to the right, which is interesting. a lot of people asking, why would it do such a sharp turn? at least in the short term, the steering is made up from the jet and this upper level low you see right here. basically, up until landfall. then we start to see a shift in the jet.