this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. on today's program, the latest nobel peace prize winner, filipino journalist maria ressa. she joins me with her attorney, amal clooney. ressa won, along with a russian counterpart, for their efforts to safeguard freedom of expression. we'll talk about manila's ongoing efforts to silence her and the broader global fight for

a free press. >> the message is clear, it is open season on journalists. then as china makes a record number of incursions into taipei's territory, taiwan's defense minister says tensions are the worst in over 40 years. is there a danger of war? i'll talk to the former national security adviser, h.r. mcmaster. also, it seems that we face a long, cold, crazy winter. tom friedman tells us in the next few months the united states may see an energy crisis with huge consequences. who is to blame? we'll explore. but, first, here's "my take." after an eight-month review of

america's trade policies towards china, the biden administration concluded donald trump was right and joe biden was wrong. you see, on the campaign trail, biden relentlessly attacked trump's tariffs on chinese goods, calling them disastrous. now he has adopted those same disastrous policies. in fact, candidate biden was right, trump's tariffs did not work. china's behavior did not change. highway jobs did not come back, and while the u.s. deficit with china decreased, this was the overall u.s. trade deficit to go up. beijing responded in kind, flapping its own tariffs on american goods. one 2020 study found approximately 100% of the costs of the u.s. tariffs on china were paid for by american consumers and businesses. a 2021 study found the tariffs cost the u.s. economy up to 245,000 jobs.

trade policy in washington has become an encrusted bipartisan ideology, driven by a set of unquestioned assumptions. but as adam posen, president for the peterson institute of international economics points out in a brilliant foreign affairs essay, every one of them is wrong. we've embraced the dogma that over the last two decades america opened up its economy to the world and that american workers suffered as a result. but the facts show the opposite. posen writes that the united states has increasingly insulated the economy from foreign competition while the rest of the world has continued to open up and integrate. he adds, "the country suffers from greater economic inequality and political extremism than most other high-income democracies, countries that have generally increased their global economic exposure." much of the impetus for protectionism in general and towards china in particular has come from claims that trade with

china was responsible for about 2 million american manufacturing jobs lost, the so-called china shock. it sounds like a huge number, until you put it into context. the number is for the period 2000 to 2015. so the average job loss for each year was 130,000. now, how many jobs do american workers lose in a typical year through the normal churning of the u.s. economy? 60 million. of those, a third are voluntary, a third can be attributed to cause not related to foreign trade, such as an employer closing or relocating, and that leaves a third, 20 million jobs, caused by external shocks. in other words, posen writes, for each manufacturing job lost to chinese competition, there were roughly 150 jobs lost to similar feeling shock in other industries. posen points out only about 16% of noncollege educated workers

are employed in manufacturing anyway. and much of the decline in manufacturing jobs, if not most of it, can be attributed to changes in technology rather than trade. america's manufacturing output keeps rising even as the number of workers it takes to produce those products has fallen over time. and this is not just an american trend. posen's institute produced a chart tracking manufacturing employment in ohio over the last three decades, and compared it to germany's north rhine west failure, a similarly important manufacturing region. unlike american, germany has a trade surplus. it provides much governmental assistance for manufacturing, which is seen at the heart of the german economy. yet the job losses are even more pronounced in that region of germany than even ohio. even china has overall been losing manufacturing jobs as its economy branches into software

and services. it's also worth noting that manufacturing jobs in the u.s. are mostly held by workers who are male and white, a policy that obsessively focuses on them, devalues the many good jobs in other sectors, which have more women and minorities working in them. these groups being poorer are also disproportionately impacted by the higher cost of tariff affected goods. very simply, more protectionism means more economic pain for the vast majority of america's middle class workers. posen points out that the chief reason for many of america's economic inequities and discontent is not open trade but stingy domestic spending. he argues all workers would gain from a more security safety net, one in which benefits like health care are portable and not tied to employment. that's when misguided market economics have distorted public policy. more and better benefits of the very kind joe biden is now

proposing would help displaced workers, reduce inequality and improve job readiness for everyone. saying all of this sometimes feels pointless. protectionism has become one of those zombie ideas that continue to move forward despite all of the evidence showing them to be wrong. most worryingly, it's part of a sea change in america's basic outlook from an optimistic and confident view we can thrive in a world in which others also do well -- a view, by the way, borne out by the data -- we are now retreating to a cold, curdled view of international life, one that is dark and zero sum, in which we search for villains to blame for our problems. it's a world in which we try to gain some narrow benefit for ourselves by screwing everyone else. in other words, it is the donald trump way. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. ♪

on friday, the nobel committee in oslo announced this year's peace prize winner, philippine journalist maria ressa and russian journalist dmitry muratov. the two long-struggled in their respective countries for the simple right to report the truth, reesa uses freedom of expression to use of violence and growing authoritarianism in her native country. for doing so she's been repeatedly harassed by the regime of philippine's president rodrigo duterte, and she's been served with arrest warrants ten times. maria ressa and her lawyer, amal clooney, join me now. maria, first of all, huge congratulations to you. personally thrilled. obviously cnn is delighted.

you have a long and distinguished history with cnn. but it's a great thrill, honor, joy for you, but it's happening, is it not, because the nobel committee feels this is a dark time for journalists and for freedom of expression in the world? >> absolutely. and, you know, i have never lived through anything like this, and we've lived through a lot of difficult moments with cnn, but war zone coverage has a beginning and an end. this feels like every day you're in an environment where you must be constantly alert like you're in a war zone. yes, absolutely. it is great that the nobel committee recognized it has become harder and more dangerous to continue holding power to account not just in the philippines but everywhere around the world. >> i want you to talk a little bit about the challenges you

faced. for example, the thing you were convicted of, the libel suit, this was for a story that you didn't write or edit. explain. it just sounds so bizarre. >> i didn't write, edit or supervise the story. it was published in 2012, a public interest story. it was at a time when the law we supposedly violated wasn't even in effect. so yes, it is, i kind of felt like joseph in -- anyway, well, i long said, and you have my lawyer here also, i long said that these cases, imagine, after 35 years as a journalist, in two years, a little less than two years to get ten arrest warrants, and it's not just me but also our company, rappler. so the cases stem from cyber libel to tax evasion. six months before we got the tax evasion cases, the government gave us the top corporate taxpayer reward.

which one do you believe? a whole bunch of other cases. all i know is we will fight these and win them in court. >> amal, i have to ask you about that. maria -- the documentary maria has done about rappler, her publication, is called "a thousand cuts," and it seems to me that is the strategy so many of these populist or authoritarians or liberal democrats use, which is they try in some way to kill the media with a thousand cuts, right? >> absolutely, fareed. i am so grateful to the nobel committee for shining a light on maria's courage but also on the broader problem around the world, because maria's case is emblematic of many of the challenges that journalists face just for trying to report the truth. as we've seen with maria attacks start on social media and she's trolled, and then there are civil cases that try to bankrupt her, that at one point revoked

her license. and then the ultimate, you know, sort of weaponization of the law, which is the use of the criminal justice system. she's facing multiple cases, each one as serious as the other. she's actually now a convict. she has been sentenced to up to six years. that is now on appeal. the reason she's doing this interview in the philippines and not in your studio is because she's not allowed to travel or leave the country. you know, she's now the philippines first-ever nobel laureate, and she should be a source of pride for all filipinos, and instead what we've seen since the award was announced is a very muted response of silence from the palace. i really hope this prize can help turn things around, not just for maria but for all journalists facing these types of extraordinary challenges simply for doing their job. >> stay with us. when we come back, i'm going to

ask maria and amal about what facebook and social media have to do with the problem of press freedoms around the world, when we come back. what happens when we welcome change? we can make emergency medicine possible at 40,000 feet. instead of burning our past for power, we can harness the energy of the tiny electron. we can create new ways to connect. rethinking how we communicate to be more inclusive than ever. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions, vmware helps companies navigate change. faster. vmware. welcome change. ♪darling, i, i can't get enough of your love babe♪ ♪girl, i don't know, i don't know,♪ ♪i don't know why i can't get enough of your love babe♪ ♪oh no, babe girl, if i could only make you see♪

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lemme guess, change in plans? at fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. we're back here on gps with maria ressa, brand-new nobel laureate, and amal clooney, her attorney. maria, you talked about the problem with facebook, and particularly in a place like the

philippines, where it is in a sense the gateway to the internet, it is the dominant distributor of news as is around the world but in particular plays a central role in the philippines. how would you describe the problem? >> look, this is the sixth year in a row that filipinos spent the most time on the internet and on social media globally. when all of the attacks began in 2016, facebook was our internet. but just this year alone, youtube became number one, facebook a close second, just by 1%. the problem is this. social media, american companies, are actually governed by algorithms so they determine news now distributed over social media platforms. the news world largest distributor of news is facebook. how they distribute the news is

governed by algorithms that determine that are essentially -- this is from research, spreads lies laced with anger and hate faster and further than fact. what that does is divides society and radicalizes if you're a user. when you say a lie a million times, it becomes a fact. when we've seen -- and you have seen me say this repeatedly for five years now, when you don't have facts, you can't have truth. when you don't have truth, you don't have trust. if you don't have this, you can't have a shared reality. you can't have democracy or any kind of human meaningful interaction to solve the existential problems we face, coronavirus or climate change. >> it must hurt substantially when you have those lies being promulgated by the president of your country. for example, president duterte has said your media platform, the rappler, is owned by americans.

that is not true, but he said it and it is widely believed now in the philippines. >> and he said it in the state of the union -- state of the nation address, like our state of the union. i was covering it. i tweeted immediately, mr. president, you're wrong. but it is what it is, and what we do is just keep doing our jobs. >> amal, how much of this climate do you think has been caused, fueled, accelerated by donald trump? the duterte line is straight out of the trump playbook. simply say black is white and say it loudly enough, and people will believe it. >> well, absolutely. duterte called maria's reporting fake news. duterte and trump were both running in 2016, and there were very unfortunate parallels in how they treated the press. duterte's team called the

journalists press-titutes. this kind of language we heard from both administrations. in the philippines, it obviously goes further where we saw 19 journalists murdered since duterte came to power. but i think looking forward, we are seeing in the u.s. a very different tone and very different approach by the biden administration where they're saying that human rights is back on the foreign policy agenda and preserving democracy and proving that democracy works, as president biden put it, is now a priority. we're coming up to a democracy summit. let's see if concrete improvements can result. and, of course, in the philippines, there are upcoming presidential elections where it's a very stark choice for filipinos between literally going back to the brutal marcos era where you have a marcos now running three decades after people ousted the parents, and

against that you have some other candidates talking about the rule of law and preserving freedom of speech. and i hope filipinos will elect a leader who will preserve their rights and not continue to trample on them. >> amal, so much of the recourse you tried to get for these journalists -- and you do an amazing job -- is in courts. are you finding in places like the philippines and turkey and india and the many other places that you work, are the courts holding up? are they independent, or are they caving to the pressure from the president or the prime minister? >> you know, i think for the philippines, we don't know yet. maria's cases are at different levels, and i think there's still a chance for appeal courts to rectify the wrongs if the executive branch doesn't dismiss the cases, which is what should happen. and, you know, in many cases you have to sort of find creative solutions where once the

government realizes they want to resolve the case, they also don't want to necessarily show that they did anything wrong but there are sometimes cases that are resolved through pardons and those kinds of outcomes. it's a rare case where you triumph directly through court system. you know, some of these repressive countries, unless there's a reason, because the judges and prosecutors and their government need to know the world is watching, first of all. you have to shine a light on it. that's why our foundation, clooney foundation of justice, is monitoring cases like this all over the world, so that all of those complicit in these abuses know people are watching them, but then also what we need to work on is improving what happens after the misbehavior. what i see in this space is what i called a new era of shamelessness. it's not only that the press are

being silenced, but literally a "washington post" columnist can be chopped up on foreign soil and a consulate commercial airline can be diverted in order to arrest a journalist, and what is the consequence? we see too little too late, if anything at all. so i have argued there's a lot more democracies can do and a toolkit of responses that should be the norm. autocracy is on the rise. there are more autocracies than democracies, and i think democracies need to do a much better job responding to these abuses that are unfortunately commonplace today. >> amal clooney, maria ressa, thank you. congratulations, again, from everyone. we just wish you all of the best. >> thank you so much, fareed. thank you for having us. next on "gps" -- taiwan put its military might on full display earlier today in a parade, but the world is wondering, will the island need to put those shiny weapons to

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last friday on china's national day, when it celebrates its founding, the people's liberation army sent 38 planes into taiwan's air defense identification zone. on saturday it sent 39 planes. on sunday another 16 planes went in, and on monday, 56 chinese warplanes enters the zone, the most incursions in one day on the record.

on wednesday taiwan's defense minister said the tensions between his island and mainland china were at their worst in 40 years. then earlier today on taiwan's own national day, taipei held a massive military parade showing off its shiny hardware for all to see. so are the two headed for war? joining me now is the former national security adviser, general h.r. mcmaster. welcome, general. some of this is a ritual posture. there's usually been chinese activity before taiwan's national day. how much of this feels like escalation and how worried are you that we are heading into a dangerous period? >> fareed, it's great to be with you. we are entering a very dangerous period, i think. i think the chinese communist party thinks it has a fleeting window of opportunity to realize

the annexation of taiwan as part of this campaign of national rejuvenation, which, of course, is tied back to the party's obsession with its exclusive grip on power and its fear of losing control. so i think xi jinping is more and more nervous. you mentioned the 100th anniversary of the party that just took place, but also he's cognizant of another anniversary, the 30th anniversary of the collapse of the soviet union. and you see the party racing to extend and tighten its exclusive grip on power internally and step up is its aggressive actions externally from bludgeoning indian soldiers to death on the himalayan frontier and socialization on the south china sea and ramming heat-seeking missiles there and fire on vessels which did not recognize it would be the largest land grab in history, the economic incursion aimed at australia.

and, of course, taiwan is the area that they are most obsessed with in connection with this campaign of national rejuvenation, and i think it's worth pointing out, fareed, xi jinping made a speech two days ago where he made that explicit connection. >> when you think about all of these things, we do know that the pentagon has done war games where the united states has tried to come to the aid of taiwan in the wake of a chinese invasion. and all reporting tells us -- and i've talked to people who participated in these games -- the united states has lost every one of those war games. china is huge. it's right there. what can be done to deter such a chinese invasion? >> well, we're in a race, fareed. we're in a race to restore deterrence by denial, to convince the chinese communist party and people's liberation

army that they can accomplish their objectives through the use of force. i will tell you, through the first 50 years of this century taiwan was complacent, taiwan was complacent, japan was complacent and australia was complacent. now we're awake to this danger. we're awake to the sense the chinese communist party believes it has this fleeting window of opportunity to accomplish its objectives through the use of force. so it has the compatible to build wills and build up not only the weapons you saw in chinese on parade there but the capabilities like smart sea mines and long-range fire capabilities and electronic warfare and tiered and layered defense capabilities. so kuo-cheng gave a long speech about this to the united states today and he has to provide all of the assistance he can.

almost like a lend-lease effort is necessary at this stage, fareed. >> how about having better crisis management with china? in the wake of the cuban missile crisis, the world almost went to nuclear war, the two sides, soviet union and u.s. put in place a hotline between moscow and washington. i look at the u.s. relations with china today. they're not very good. there's not much communication, not much contact. the report of general milley calling his chinese counterpart in the middle of an american crisis because he got wind of the fact that the chinese plot that the u.s. was about to invade. this all sounds very scary. shouldn't we have better communications with the chinese? >> there are communications with the chinese. you just saw president biden speak with xi jinping. you saw the u.s. national security adviser meet with their

repres representative. but a lot of times that communication doesn't amount to much. the politicians come with talking points, they read off of cards. what you're seeing really is a chinese communist party that is much, much more aggressive, fareed. we've seen international with the diplomacy, the economic implosion aimed at australia. having lines of communication open is one thing, but i don't know if the chinese communist party, on the other end is listening. i think they also have a perception these days, fareed, that we're weak. they've been watching the traumas we've gone through, pandemic, recession associated with the pandemic, the social issues laid bear in the wake of george floyd's murder. the vitriolic accomplishments that resulted in an assault on the capitol. they're also looking at our defense budget. our defense budget isn't doing enough, fareed, to make up for what's been a bowed wave of deferred modernization to answer

some of the asymmetric capabilities that the chinese communist party, people's liberation army developed. they've increased their defense spending 400% since 1995. so i think it's really important for the united states, japan, australia and we saw the aukus agreement between australia, the uk and the united states. these are all positive developments. but i'll tell you, fareed, we're behind. as i mentioned in a speech just a few days ago the taiwanese prime minister said by 2025 the people's liberation army may be able to accomplish its objectives on taiwan by use of force at low cost. >> general mcmaster, thank you very much. very, very important words. thank you, sir. and we will be back. and share updates in slack instead. it's where your whole team is in one place so everyone can stay up to date. slack. where the future works. some people have joint pain,

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winter is coming, although it's only october, the first major snowstorm is expected in the rocky mountains this coming week. and if you have been to a gas station recently, you noticed fuel prices are high and only

getting higher. my next guest is worried about what happens when the cold weather meets high prices for oil and gas. tom friedman is a "new york times" columnist and three-time pulitzer prize winner and author of "from beirut to jerusalem." tom, explain first of all what is likely to happen over the next few months in large parts of the western world? >> well, fareed, already as you noted, gasoline prices are up $1 from last year in america, up much larger in the rest of the world. natural gas prices in europe are up like 500%. why is this happening? three things really came together. one, the pandemic. so the pandemic kind of did a head face to the oil industry. when it hit, we thought we were going into a prolonged recession. so a lot of investment in oil and gas was shut down. it had not been a great seven years anyway so banks were not

interested in doubling down on that. but the government came in with a lot of stimulus so the economy recovered but far faster than the oil and gas industry recovered. more demand for oil that exists to oil and gas in particular. and in europe, and the world in general, we all moved to this great thing, thinking about cleaner fuels everywhere to prevent climate change. but it's been done in a really uncoordinated way. countries were shutting down their nuclear, their coal industries clearly faster than they could produce alternatives, wind, solar, hybrid and it natural gas, which is half as polluting as coal. and one country, great britain, due to some bizarre miscalculation shut down gas storage facilities and, therefore, had no real buffer when demand went up and that really shot gas prices soaring in great britain. >> so what you're describing, i mean, the fundamental mismatch it seems to me is we want to get

off these fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas. so we're kind of not investing a lot in them. but we don't have the new green stuff to kind of come in its place. what is the answer? >> so, you know, fareed the answer is policy, policy, policy. you think about germany. after the fukushima reactor disaster in japan in which one person was killed, germany decided under chancellor merkel that it would basically phase out all of its nuclear power by 2022. that nuclear power in germany, fareed, provided about 30% of the country's total electric needs, and it was clean. and they didn't -- they couldn't replace that clean power as fast as they needed to. and so the natural bridge fuel is natural gas, as i said, but that hugely increased germany's

demand for natural gas. who is the biggest supplier of that in europe? it's russia. those things played out everywhere. we simply failed to appreciate that shifting your energy system to cleaner fuels is a scale project. if you don't have scale, you have a hobby. i like hobbies. i used to build model airplanes. i wouldn't try to deal with climate change as a hobby. so you need a long-term plan to do this properly and everyone is kind of done it in a very haphazard way. >> if you look at california, the state you're in, right, something similar seems to me to be happening there. shutting down nuclear, they say they don't want any natural gas. and as a result because of shortages the governor authorized something like 50,000 diesel-powered generators as backup facilities. all of a sudden you're now in a dirtier fuel than national gas because you don't want to do natural gas, right?

>> you actually need a long-term plan that can phase in these clean energies to the extent we have them at scale. and that's what we're not doing. look, fareed, this is like right down your alley. what would we be doing today if we had a long-term plan? we'd actually have kind of a natural gas marshall plan for europe. we in america would build a set of l&g export terminals to export our national gas. we're the saudi arabia of natural gas. we're more than saudi arabia of natural gas, we have 100 years of supply. but if you can't liquify it, you can't export it. and then we partner with europeans and build terminals over there and then you have a long-term plan to counterbalance the influence of russia. >> so play out some of the other political consequences of this energy crunch and energy crisis. clearly russia gets empowered. what else happens? >> another thing i think people aren't paying attention to, and

you've had this on the show before, which is iran is getting closer and closer to developing enough fissile material now to build one nuclear bomb. if you listen to americans, security officials and israeli security officials, they've been telling us we're not going to let that happen. we're not going to let iran get that close. they're getting that close. if they're considering some kind of kinetic action to stop the iranians in their tracks, imagine what would happen, fareed, if the iranians sent just one drone -- one drone to attack the national gas facilities in qatar or interdict a natural gas supertanker leaving the persian gulf. the price of natural gas would go through the stratosphere. suddenly israeli and american planners, they have to really think, boy, if we do something kinetic right now, what will be the implication for the whole global economy, and if we don't do it, what will be the implications of a nuclear-armed iran? >> tom friedman, pleasure having you on.

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post-pandemic world" which came out in paperback this week. i have to confess i feel vindicated that much of how i described the future of politics, the economy, work, cities seems to be taking shape. that's largely because i was not trying to predict what the next few months would look like but rather lifting my gaze and locking at the broader forces that were being accelerated by the pandemic. but there was one big thing in my book and i addressed it in the afterward. in the preceding pages i spent a lot of time and energy discussing all the programs and policies that were needed to deal with the pandemic and its consequences, but i give little thought in the book to what each of us needs to do by ourselves for ourselves to cope with and a adjust to the new radically different circumstances. i was focused on the external response to the pandemic while ignoring the internal response, the one within us that is often far harder to shape.

i'm not a highly introspective person and i dealt with covid the way i do with most challenges, making the best of the situation, taking care of my family, exploring new opportunities. i jumped at the chance presented by having more flow time to make sense of the pandemic by writing a book about it and its consequences. the writing was a kind of theraphy for me, but then in the midst of the pandemic my mother died around 8,000 miles away in india, and that was a brutal reminder that however much you might try to deal with life by constantly doing, moving, acting, sometimes the key is not what you do in the external realm but how you feel within. i recall once when i was very young hearing an indian philosopher, a guru-type, explain that the western europe world had spent accept industries focused on how to solve problems by controlling the external world, taking nature, building machines, organizing activities. the eastern tradition, he not,

was less about forcibly changing the world than coming to terms with it using techniques like meditation and mindfulness. there are things in life that are best handled not by trying to bend them to your will but by bending one's will itself which is often a harder task. i also discovered during this pandemic, like many of us, the power of technology and of its limits. we would not have been able to put on this show every week if not for the information revolution, but at a deeper personal level, the screen has its limitations. technology can enable a hoe grade connection, but physical proximity, using not just sight and sound by touch builds intimacy in a way that a computer or a phone cannot. i ended up watching my mother's burial by video link, and i felt sadder than i could have imagined. i had wanted to take my kids to india to see her in her final

state, walk with her body to the burial ground and take part in the ceremony that would place her in her resting place. my children had visited their grandmother over christmas every year until the pandemic. being present for that collective ritual would have marked her passing, honored her life and closed a chapter in all of our lives. watching it all on video was a paltry compensation, and it only made clear what we were actually mission out on, heightening my sense of loneliness. so if there is an 11th lesson from this pandemic, it's one that i've learned in these last months. spend time, effort and energy to try to build up those inner resources of mind and spirit that are as important as the external ones. i'm trying to do just that in my own life. go to cnn.com/farid or visit

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hello, everyone. thank you so much for joining me this sunday. i'm fredericka whitfield. we begin with breaking news. police say they have made several arrests in connection with what they call a hellas situation in minnesota. a shooting sent people scrambling at