public square." welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world, i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the program, the west watching ware i willy as putin and xi appear to get ever closer. might this relationship, a china/russia axis form the basis for a new global divide? i will ask the experts.

also -- >> we will come after you and find. >> you u.s. special forces kill isis' top leader in a nighttime raid in syria. it raises the question just how strong is isis today? how much of a threat does it pose? fawaz gerges will join me. finally, from cars to milk to housing and more, we are paying more than we were a year ago for so many items. inflation is to blame for certain, but just how bad is it? i will do a deep dive that might surprise you. but first, here is my take. it's a tale of two olympics. remember the 2008 beijing games? china was dazzling the world with its economic prowess and technological sophistication, determined to impress the world with its soft power.

praise filled the headlines in countries like australia, the united kingdom and the u.s. the sydney morning herald said that the opening ceremony was a perfect ten. london's evening standard described the event as the beginning of china's new era of greatness, witnessed and implicitly approved by much of the leadership of the planet. indeed, there was george w. bush, the first american president to attend an olympics in a foreign country, telling the prs that the beijing games exceeded my expectations. compare that to the beijing winter olympics that began last week. those same countries, the u.s., the uk and australia, have all announced a diplomatic boycott of the games for human rights concerns. no major western head of state is attending. the star of the show is china's ever closer ally vladimir putin. the event itself is taking place without the usual screaming crowds and olympic cheers.

traveling to china is nearly impossible due to the pandemic and the government is barring most ordinary people from attending, all of which means that the stadiums and other venues are essentially tv studios, beaming out sports that are being played in front of near empty arenas. the covid situation in china is a metaphor for one of the problems plaguing the country, its government's rigidity. china handled the initial outbreak of covid brutally but they effectively, achieving what in some ways is the world's most successful pandemic containment strategy. the country has under 5,000 reported covid deaths, compared to america's -- putting aside the possibility of underreporting -- the difference is staggering. but as many experts have noted, china now faces a real covid nightmare. omicron spreads so easily and fast that pursuing a zero covid policy is like putting a finger

in a dike. china's vaccines do not appear to be very effective at preventing breakthrough omicron infections. add to this, the fact that according to official reports few of china's 1.4 billion people have tested positive for covid, meaning so-called natural or virus-induced immunity is relatively low. every january the eurasia group announces a list of the top ten global risks. this year china's zero covid policy was the number one risk. there is a broader cost to china's covid policy, it has cut the country off from the world. for the last two years china's president and many of its senior officials have not traveled abroad. few diplomats and businesspeople go to the middle kingdom anymore. tourists have basically been banned. this is a major reversal of decades in which china reached out to the world and tried to integrate itself into global

institutions. when they began china's reforms the phrase that was used to often that it became a mantra was reform and opening. that opening feels like a distant memory now. today it's crack down and close up. in some ways covid highlights a central flaw in the chinese model. beijing can operate with ruthless efficiency which often makes western democratic policy making seem chaotic and second rate, but when a dictator's chosen policy needs to be changed, it's very hard for a dictatorship to correct course. the best example of this rigidity is china's one child policy which gained momentum in the 1980s. a strategy that might have made some sense in the '60s and early '# 0s when chinese population growth was worrying and the economy was faltering, proved count productive from the 1990s

which which time demographic vitality would have been an asset, but it took beijing years and years to change. now it appears efforts to reverse the policy's effects may be too late. democracies for all their flaws can switch policy and policymakers with much greater ease. in washington these days many look enviously at the beijing government's efficiency and its ability to utes state power to generate economic growth. we wonder whether we need more direct industrial policy with government picking national champions and protecting industries with tariffs and subsidies. it might be worth taking a closer look at what is actually going on in china. beijing has succeeded wildly in some areas, but that same government, those same bureaucracies, have made major mistakes from persisting with the one-child policy to accumulating mountains of debt. the black box that is china's government often looks more

impressive from the outside. america's openness and competition, economic, political, social, often looks chaotic, but over the centuries it has endured while many seemingly efficient models of government have failed. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week. and let us get started. ♪ china state news agency reports that at friday's meeting between putin and xi in beijing, the two agreed to deepen strategic coordination and they pledged to support each other in safe guarding sovereignty. after the meeting the two nations also released a joint statement opposing any further expansion of nato. what to make of it all. let me bring in today's panel, gideon rachman is the ft's chief

foreign affairs columnist. there is a big story in the paper entitled "russia and china's plans for a new world order." he is also the author of an upcoming book "age of the strong man." cindy yu is an editor at the spectator. she hosts chinese whispers. gideon, welcome. let me start with you and ask you how did we get to this point? if you go back ten years ago it certainly seemed that the united states was in this kind of almost biz mark yan position where it had better relations with russia and china than the two countries had with themselves. what has happened that has gotten up to this russia/china axis? >> well, i think a couple of things. i think, firstly, most putin and xi have come to the conclusion, possibly a false conclusion, that they are threatened domestically at home by the

possibility of what they call color revolutions which are referred to explicitly in the russia/chinese joint statement after their meeting, by which they mean a kind of american-sponsored upheaval, attempt to overthrow the regime. and they have this joint interest in a sense in making the world safe for autocracy. woodrow wilson talked about making the world safe for democracy but i think russia and china have decided they want to make the world safe for their autocratic regimes by pushing back against what they regard as these u.s.-inspired things that they would point to, say, ukraine, the russians believe that america was essentially behind the -- to overthrow the russian president. the chinese say that the americans were behind the uprising in hong kong. but also i think there's a more offensive aspect to it, which is that they have a joint perception that america is also getting weaker, going back to

the financial crisis, the problems with the pandemic that you referred to, you know, the storming of the capitol, the fall of afghanistan, you name it. there's a lot of reasons why they think now is a good time jointly to wush back against american power. >> cindy, i wonder how much of this, though, has something to do with western policy as well. i mean, i can't help but thinking that you had these same issues in the 1970s in a sense with a closely allied russia and china, and the nixon administration with henry kissinger was able to very deftly separate the two and drive a wedge between them. is western policy in some way driving them together? >> yeah, fareed, i think that's right. if you think back to the '70s, that period of time you're talking about, cracks had already been showing between the ussr as it was then and communist china, but what nixon

was able to do with the chairman was really formalize that and to spread aside these two communist allies which really brought on the end of the cold war later and china was also able to benefit from that because at that point it didn't really want to be under the soviet union's wings anymore. right now what the west is doing, but i'm not sure it's got much other option, but what it is doing is pushing russia and china further together. one way we can see this is, for example, through energy. when we are talking about, for example, the russian pipeline into germany or nord stream 2 for natural gas, you know, america and washington has been very clear that this is not a good idea for germany to be reliant on russian gas, yet in germany is not reliant on russian gas that gas is going to be sold to china. that's what we've seen in the last ten years, that the chinese market has become increasingly important to russian energy suppliers. so, you know, through, you know, reducing western reliance on russia, what we do is increase

russian reliance on china. >> gideon, aren't these two countries very different in a kind of odd couple, in a way? china is fundamentally a rising power, russia is fundamentally a declining power. atlantic council has a nice interesting report on the two called axis of collusion, the fragile putin/xi relationship. it makes a point there's all this rhetoric of partnership but underneath it chinese investment in russia is actually declining. the chinese are not trying to help russia, for example, diversify its economy away from the petrol state that it is. do you think that the west should be exploiting those tensions? >> w i think, you know -- i think it's probably easier said than done. i mean, this idea of doing, if you like, a reverse kissinger and perhaps pulling russia away from china because china is now the bigger threat is an idea that does the rounds and think tanks you will have heard it

talked about, but it's not as simple as that because for the moment these two countries do have shared interests. what is the case, however, is i think that in the long run you clearly can identify die jerj ent interests and actually say china is the rising power, its economy is much, much larger than that of russia, it's population is ten times that of russia and even potentially in the future there could be territorial tensions between russia and china. a lot of modern day russia was once in china, you know, in the 19th century and the russians i think are anxious that all of their energy resources, most of them are in the east, which is very underpopulated, china is very, you know, short of energy. so you could see maybe in a decade's time potential tensions between the two countries, but i just don't think that's where we're at right now because i think at the moment they currently have a joint perception of an american

threat. >> stay with us. when we come back i'm going to ask cindy about the beijing olympics and gideon about whether russia will, in fact, invade ukrne. (vo) t-mobile for business wants to make this the best year for your business yet. when you switch and bring your own device, we'll pay off your phone up to $800. you can keep your phone. and keep your number.

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we are back with gideon rachman of the financial times and cindy yu othe spectator. cindy, you have written a piece that's similar to the some of the comments i made in my opening commentary. let me ask you to expand on it. where does china go for now? is there discussion about, you know, dealing with covid somewhat differently because i'm struck by the fact that other countries that have pursued a tough policy, a kind of zero covid policy like australia, new zealand, taiwan, singapore,

they're beginning to ease up. they're recognizing that omicron is going to spread like wildfire no matter what you do. what is going on in china? the government is very, very smart and competent and are they beginning to move in that direction, even in small ways? >> well, there's not enough discussion of what comes after zero covid, really, because, you know, whereas in these other countries you have these discussions in civil society and public opinion about living with covid. that's not really a sign of that in china. last summer there was one state epidemiologist who ted to say, you know, at some stage we're going to have to live with covid. what happened instead is that he was subjected to an online witch-hunt, they investigated -- they triggered an investigation into his dissertation, plagiarism inquiry. it was a witch-hunt and he has kind of stopped talk being that line of argument now and we don't really see really much else. i think china does obviously

want to be thinking about its next stages but it was never going to do that this year because in october is national party congress, which is when president xi was meant to have stepped down, but obviously because he has abolished term limits he's not going to be stepping down anymore. it will be a politically sensitive time to mark his first decade in power. there was no way they were going to risk some kind of covid outbreak before that. as i've written, until then the country is using a holding pattern, locking down wherever it ss covid, even one case is too many and easing lockdown when locally transmitted cases are completely gone, which is obviously socially economic damaging but in terms of the absolute results, in terms of the lives and infections it is highly effective. >> cindy, let me quickly ask you about something george soros, the legendary investor and philanthropist made a speech in which he predicted may be too strong a word but he cautioned that xi might not get his third term, that there is rising opposition within china and that

if covid goes very badly things could unravel. as far as i can tell that sounds more like wishful thinking than careful reading of actual things on the ground. would you agree? i do not see much potent opposition to xi getting his third term in china. >> yeah, i would agree with you, fareed. if george soros can point us to where that opposition is, i'm sure many people would be very eager to hear about it. there are signs, there are always signs, but china's political system is incredibly opaque, no one really knows what happens behind the scenes until decades later when memoires get writ an and even that's not common. it's part of president xi's political legacy but it doesn't look like it's failing. it looks like it will be indefinitely continued as long as president xi is happy to pay the price through the economy. even with the economy, it's still growing. so china has not had the economic damage that a lot of other countries in the world

have had, either. so i don't really think that president xi will be stepping down this year, no. >> gideon, let's switch, if we can, to russia. what do you think? is this all kind of coercion diplomacy designed to get something from the west, or does putin really want to teach ukraine a lesson? >> look, i think that the real truth is that nobody really knows and there is a good reason for that is correct which is that the decision will ultimately be taken by one man, vladimir putin. he is a new czar, he has ordered this buildup of troops, he may not even have made up his own mind. i know people who deal with russian officials say that they sense a kind of uneasiness amongst them because they don't quite know where this is going to go. what you can say is that there is a division of opinion amongst the western allies. as one french diplomate put it to me, the americans think an invasion is imminent and we, the french in this case, think it could be imminent.

in other words, they're both seeing the same buildup of forces and they're both very concerned by in particular by the move of troops into belarus, which is two hours' drive from kyiv. as far as the americans see it, you know, there's been an intensification over the last two weeks, russia is putting this everything it would need to stage an invasion which could be -- include actually going all the way to kyiv. and i think the americans think that as biden said publicly he's going to do something, but the your means, in fact, president macron of france who is going to moscow tomorrow are now saying that, well, maybe, you know, we are now on the diplomatic path and we can talk him out of this. but, you know, we will find out soon enough. as i say, putin himself may not have fully decided. >> gideon rachman, cindy yu, pleasure to have you on. thank you so much. when we come back, we're going to talk about the head of

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a major terrorist leader off the battlefield and it sent a strong message to terrorists around the world. we will come after you and find you. >> that was president biden thursday morning after an overnight raid killed isis leader abu ibrahim al hashimi al qurayshi and it raised the question what is the state of

islamic terror and isis specifically? is it still a major threat? joining me now is fawaz gerges, professor of international relations at the london school of economics and the author of "isis: a history." fawaz, welcome. first, give us a sense of what al qurayshi's death means. is this a body blow? how would you describe it? >> well, i mean, i think the killing of al qurayshi will have more of a tactical impact on the islamic state than a strategic impact. my take on it, fareed, and i'm very harsh on american foreign policy, is that american politicians tend to simplify very complex problems. killing one individual regardless of how important this individual will not really put a permanent end to the islamic state. what has happened -- what has happened in the past three years, after the dismantling of

the khalifa, the physical khalifa in iraq and syria the group has mutated into a resilient insurgency a low cost resident insurgency. it has a few thousand sand fighters. low-cost operations. it has sprawling operations in syria and iraq and afghanistan. it has carried out thousands, not hundreds, fareed, thousands of attacks in iraq and syria and afghanistan. it has targeted mainly tribal figures, village elders, security forces, local leaders, and it has basically, you know, shown its ability to persist. we're not witnessing the resurgence of is, we're really witnessing the persistent of this particular resilient and potent insurgency. >> and what should one do about it, fawaz? because it seems to me -- i followed the attacks that you

are describing, and it seems that isis particularly in iraq and syria is feeding on a certain amount of sunni resentment against how they are treated, particularly in iraq by the shia majority, in syria it's a little more complicated but there are kind of hard line sunnis. you know, if that sectarian dynamic is at its heart, what does the united states as an outside force do? >> well, i mean, i think insurgencies as we know, insurgencies can go for a long time, local insurgencies. it's about really addressing the grievances of the local populations. it's not just whether in the middle east, all kind of local insurgencies historically. so in both iraq and syria, the islamic state basically taps into mountains of grievances by sunni communities.

let me give your viewers a glance -- a glimpse of what we're talking about. you still have tens of thousands of sunnis in iraq who are treated like criminals because isis functioned within their own communities, they are placed in detention camps, they are excluded, they are treated like basically criminals. they are collectively punished. so isis, even though it lost the khalifa, the territorial khalifa in 2017 in iraq, it has been able to find a refuge within these sunni communities in iraq. in fact, your question is so important because there is a growing evidence now that isis or the islamic state has been able to renew its ranks with younger recruits from members of families who have had ties to the islamic state, and also members internally excluded and

angry sunnis. this is in iraq. in syria the kurdish-led militias who basically control the prisons where you have thousands of islamic state fighters and tens of thousands family members have not really been able to build the trust with the local communities, mainly local arab and sunni communities in northeastern syria. so isis this insurgency has been able to really find a refuge and the question is how do you address the grievances? how do you deal with punishing poverty? how do you provide security and, fareed, look, the united states is missing in action. really the american foreign policy team is missing in action. it has not invested much -- >> let me ask you, fawaz, about on that issue, you wrote a very prescient piece in foreign policy in august of 2021 as the taliban was taking control of

afghanistan. you wrote, the taliban can't control -- that should. this major problem in just in terms of the taliban taking over which has proved to be entirely true, they face terrorist attacks all the time. how unstable is afghanistan and do you worry that it could become the cockpit once again of terror groups getting larger and larger as the instability grows? >> you know, there is -- we're not really talking about mysterious challenges. we know where the islamic state or al qaeda or isis came to afghanistan. how they are nourished. how they survive. how they persist. how they basically find ways and means to exist. conflict zones, economic collapse, civil strive. so if afghanistan basically if the economy collapses as it

seems to be the case, if the united states allows afghanistan to go through this -- i mean, massive economic and social collapse, i have no doubt in my mind that isis-k will be able to find a refuge and even al qaeda, the same way in syria and iraq. when i talk about the america foreign policy team missing in action, zero diplomatic investment in syria. zero diplomatic investment in the palestine/israel conflict. allowing local conflicts basically to be exacerbated and escalate. so it's not just to come back to your earlier question, it's not just about killing key individuals, important as they are, it's about addressing the grievances and the institutional breakdown -- >> on that -- on that note of harsh indictment, fawaz, i have to let you go. thank you so much as always. and we will be back. st ride the wave? (judith) no - we actively manage client portfolios based on

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big tech should be called massive tech these days. america's tech giants are becoming unfathomably large and powerful. apple's market cap is almost $3 trillion. that is a 3 followed by 12 zeros. microsoft isn't too far behind and the titans of the industry have net worths to match. forbes says the three richest people in the world are tesla's elon musk, amazon's jeff bezos and bill gates. ro khanna's district is the beating heart of tech money, silicon valley. apple and google are both head kwaurd erred in the area he represents, but canha acknowledges that america has a big tech problem and says we need to fix t his new book "dignity is a digital age" is all about solutions. ro, thank you for joining us. let me first ask you is it fair when people look at these tech

companies they see extraordinary efficiency and competence and provision of services for sure, but there are a lot of people who say we also see monopolies, places that make it very difficult for other -- other up and comers to compete. this is an argument that, you know, elizabeth warren makes all the time. is that basic critique fair about america's tech giants, that they are anti-competitive monopolies in some form or the other? >> it's fair to say that we need stronger antitrust enforcement against the companies. i think it's unfair to say let's just break them all up. the question is how do you do it? my view is you should not allow companies to have big mergers like facebook acquiring what's app and instagram without a default position that it's anti-competitive that we overcome by those companies and these companies shouldn't be

allowed to discriminate against sellers on their platform without actually showing that there is some real consumer benefit to doing it. so we definitely need stronger antitrust laws. >> but how do you do it? what i don't understand, fine, if you were to break google and youtube up, what would that do? i'm not sure i understand -- you know, the nature of the digital economy is that the first mover has huge advantages and the person who establishes the standard kind of everybody goes to. the reason we use google is because everybody else uses it and so the search results are much better because of that -- that fact, you know, what they call network effects. how do you -- how do you fight against that if you need to? >> so you do things like you can acquire competitors, that's why i give the example with facebook and what's app and instagram. you can certainly say that facebook shouldn't have acquired what's app and instagram so you had more spaces and more social

media platforms, but one point, fareed, i don't think antitrust is the silver bullet to solve the biggest issue which is that a lot of americans have been left out of the wealth generation of the digital economy and these 25 million jobs and how do we actually get more things like intel into ohio and creating jobs. and the book really focuses on how do you decentralize it. antitrust is not some magic wand that would do that. >> right. so let's talk about that. how do you make that happen and why -- if it were a good idea, wouldn't the market be doing it anyway? i mean, in other words, are you fighting pretty fundamental forces of the market in forcing some of these companies to go into places where they have not found a competitive advantage to doing so? >> structuring the market to incentivize that. for the longest time here is what happened, the digital economy, globalization, took place and you had people say, no problem, we're going to create wealth, there's going to be this

knowledge economy, go move to the jobs. well, the result of that is what we have, huge wealth generation in my district in new york, in austin and seattle, large parts of america you've dean deindustalization, job loss, people actually talking about the brain drain in rural america where their kids have to leave and i think it was tone deaf, the importance people still put on community and led in part to conditions where you see the rise of populism. so i actually believe we should have place based incentives. part of it is simply investing. why aren't we investing in digital grant universities and colleges like abraham lincoln did in the land grant colleges? why aren't we having pu public-private partnerships in places like ohio, with intel and ohio state, why aren't we doing that across the country? i think we could do it, it's just been drift and neglect in taking advantage of all the places there's talent. mitch kapur says genius doesn't

come restricted in a zip code. >> do you get push back from your constituents? there is an irony here, you are representing silicon valley and you are at some level a critic of big tech. >> i do. just this morning i got a call from one of the companies saying the ceo wasn't happy because i thought that there should be stronger antitrust legislation. but i would say that there have to be well-cfted regulations and there has to be a balance. i guess in a nutshell my position is not let's just reflexively break up their companies, but it's also not let's say lou things to continue the way they are. there have to be well-crafted regulations and an economic incentive of desent lags. that's the fundamental question, do you believe that globalization should go unchecked, laid to these concentrations of wealth and have huge parts of the country left out, which has been the case for 30, 40 years, or do you think that's exactly the conditions that will give rise to what donald trump exploited

and that we need actually government to play a steering role and make sure that globalization, digitization are working for left out communities. i believe if we don't do that you're going to have the conditions of populism over and over again. >> ro khanna, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you, fareed. next on "gps," think prices have been going up? of course they have. but we will take the long view and show you what the trends really look like when you pull out a little further. usic plays♪ [bacon sizzles] ♪ [electronic music plays] ♪ woo! when you really need to sleep you reach for the really good stuff. new zzzquil ultra helps you sleep better and longer when you need it most. it's non habit forming and powered by the makers of nyquil. new zzzquil ultra. when you really really need to sleep.

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and now for the last look. americans are struggling with inflation. prices have jumped for everything from hamburgers to housing, making it harder to stretch a paycheck. but step back and the picture looks less dire. in recent decades inflation had stayed usually low. from 1960 to 1980, for example, prices rose 166%. in the next two decades they rose 117%. but from 2000 to january 2021 prices rose just 55%. including all of last year, from 2000 through december 2021 prices rose 65.5%. that is a huge uptick in one

year and it is throwing household budgets out of whack, but taken as a whole we are still in an era of low inflation. now, one reason prices probably stayed low for so long is because wages stayed low. this graph looks at wages going back to 2001 adjusted for inflation. you see workers didn't start to make real gains until the late 2010s and now inflation is eating into those gains. but they have made gains and perhaps as inflation subsides, those gains will grow again. cheap goods helped keep inflation down in the last two decades. have a look at this graph by mark perry of the american enterprise institute. remember, overall inflation since 2000 was 65.5%. the blue lines are expenses that have stayed below general inflation or even gotten cheaper. products like cars, clothing and tvs.

and considertvs. one really they got cheaper is because of globalization, other countries can pro at lower costs. tvs use micro chips which have grown cheaper as they have grown more powerful. a further reason is quality and this is a bit of a technicality but it matters. take a tv from 2000 with a sticker price of $300 and a tv that costs $300 today. today's tv will be bigger, have better picture quality, better sound quality, connection to the internet and, therefore, the option of infinite movies and shows on demand. so statisticians raised the price of the old tv to reflect the fact that with the new one you're getting more bang for your buck. the lines in red shows things that have gotten less affordable, mainly services like health care. obviously health care is more essential than a new tv. there are a number of explanations for skyrocketing

health costs, regulation administrative demands, hospital mergers, the limited number of slots for training new doctors. so there's a lot that can be done to rein in costs but that's not the whole story. the statisticians don't really address for quality of service like health care. heart surgeries, for example, may have gotten more expensive, but they are also better, more effective, and the benefits of cutting edge drugs and techniques have been significant. from 2000 to 2019 life expectancy in the u.s. increased by a whole two years to 78.8. this was in a period that included terror attacks, two wars in the middle east and the opioid epidemic. look, i don't mean to be a poly anna, we have seen a scary surge in inflation and families are struggling, but the flip side of the low inflation of the last few decades had been stagnant wages for a long, long period.

let's hope we can find a better balance with ring wages and what is still by historical standards low inflation and at the same time continue to reap the benefits of human progress that have helped us to lead better and longer lives. now, before we leave i want to say thank you to someone who has been central to this program's success. for the nine years that he was president of cnn jeff zucker always supported and encouraged us. he did the same with my documentary unit for which he was the cheerleader in chief. he gave us ideas and urged us to range widely, covering history, foreign countries, culture, whatever made for a compelling story. he is at heart a just junky in the best sense of the word. passionate about america and the world and always curious to know more and go deeper. he was also a great boss, smart and straightforward, tough, but fair. if we made mistakes, and i did,

he always leaned toward giving people a second chance. i wish him all the best in the nexthapter of his life. thank you, jeff, for everything. and thanks to all of you for spending an hour with me. i will be back next week. go for a run. go for 10 runs! run a marathon. instead, start small. with nicorette. which can lead to something big. start stopping with nicorette.

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hey, here we are. i'm brian stelter live in new york and this is "reliable sources." where we examine the story behind the story and figure out what's reliable. this hour we have in-depth coverage of the shake up right here at cnn. plus, a new controversy involving joe rogan. will spotify ever hold him accountable? pl