what if supposed voter suppression doesn't actually suppress any votes? i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia. here's why i'm asking that question, you know the conventional wisdom. that democrats are doomed in the midterms because historically, the party outside the white house makes gains in the off-year election. come november, republicans need only gain five seats to take control of the house. and since the civil war, the outside party has won at least that number in all but just four elections. well, a new cnn poll suggests

this year won't be any different, despite all the democrats' attempts to rally their base around emmitty around donald trump. 56 of that group say there's literally nothing they approve of biden having done so far. james carvelle once famously said it's the economy, stupid. well, disapproval for biden's handling of the economy is now at 62%. when asked their top-two policy issues, reducing inflation was named by 42%. how's that going? well this week came numbers from the bureau of labor statistics. consumer prizes rose 7.5%, the most in 40 years, while real wages declined 1.7%. gas prices still up 40 from a

years ago which explains why president biden reacted during his first tv interview. it was this week with lester holt, first of the year. >> i think it was back in july you said inflation was going to be temporary. i think a lot of americans are wondering what your definition of "temporary" is? >> well, you're being a wise guy with me a little bit. i understand that's your job. >> supply chain issues are affecting everything from food in the supermarket to computer chips to auto parts. and, of course, there's now canada where a so-called trucker blockade which started as a vaccine mandate protest now further threatens the u.s. supply chain. internationally, the situation in ukraine seems about to boil over with the state department telling americans to leave the country, quote, as quickly as possible, with forces amassing on three sides of its border-. secretary of state antony blinken says the u.s. believes that a u.s. invasion with bombs and missiles would begin, quote, at anytime. today, 11:00 a.m. president biden scheduled to speak with

vladimir putin. meanwhile, the mexican border remains porous following a year of record arrests. in 2021, border patrol agents made 1.9 million arrests that's a record high. homicides and violent crime still on the rise in many american cities. thursday night, by way of example, five cops hot in phoenix, thankfully, none fatally. in december, a cnn poll found that 76% of americans feel the federal government is not doing enough to address violent crime. and then there's covid. approval of the president's handling of the coronavirus is just at 45%. we've got the never-ending changes of covid protocols. mask on, mask off. how many shots, make one, quote, fully vaccinated. a previous infection count as immunity. mandates implemented then struck down. president biden told lester holt he thinks democratic governors ending mask mandates are moving too quickly but added, you know, a tough call. here's the thing, taken

together, it's tough to see any light at the end of the tunnel for democratic efforts to maintain control of the congress. maybe where so many contracted omicron there will soon be relief from the pandemic. and that will benefit biden. perhaps a supreme court reversal of roe v. wade will motivate democratic voters to vote in the midterms but even if democratic fortunes take a turn for the better there is way that the midterm elections will be waged. you have many republican state legislatures ordering state voting laws in a way they say is valid protection but areas allege is voter suppression. changes to early in person voting. requiring voter i.d. at the polls. sending absent t.e.a.s without request. and requests to vote by mail. but do stricter voting laws really diminish turnout? according to my next guest, not

so much. he says in the 2020 election, these voting rules had only minor affects on turn out and no effect at all on the democratic turnout in the presidential election. so what might that mean for 2022 when many new laws have only recently been put in place. joining me, alan abramowitz, he performed an analysis for crystal ball uva where he's a senior economist. professor, what did you do and with what result? >> well, what i did, essentially was to analyze the variation in election laws that existed in 2020. and look at the impact of that had on both voter turnout and on the outcome of the election in the states. and what i found was, that while there was wide variation across states in the availability of

abosentee voting and the availability of stays of other in-person voting and other regulations, that, when you looked at the impact that had on turnout and election results. based on what we would have expected given the results in those four states four years earlier, what i found was that there was only a very small effect on turnout. and no effect at all on the outcome of the election at the state level. >> it sounds so counterintuitive. we've spent so much time talking about all of the changes to voter laws. were you surprised? >> i was a little surprised at the small effect on turnout, especially, although my results are actually consistent with some of the earlier research that's been done on things like early in-person voting and absentee voting. what we know about those procedures is that they're popular. that people like voting to be convenient. that people take advantage of

those opportunities, if you provide early voting. if you make absentee voting readily available. that's certainly true in 2020 because of the fact that the election was taking place during a pandemic. but what the research has shown and what my research shows is that while convenient and while widely used there still seems to be relative impact on either a percentage of relative voters that go to the polls or ultimately on which party they end up voting for. >> so how could you possibly know what the impact would be for the midterm or for the next presidential election when so many of the laws at issue here, whether you call them voter suppression, whether you call them ballot security, many of them have only been put on the books since 2020? >> that's right. but we can look back at what happened in 2020. and take advantage of the fact that there was considerable variation in the accessibility of early voting and absentee

voting in 2020. for example, we had states that still required an excuse for absentee voting. we had states that mailed applications to voters. and we had ten states that actually mailed ballots directly to voters. so wide variation. wide variation in the percentage of the vote that was actually cast by absentee ballot. so, we can take advantage of that variation to see what effect did that have in 2020. and looking back at 2016 as our sort of control for that. and that's where i found that it had relatively little effect on turnout, and no effect on vote outcome. and then using that result to project what the effect of these same sorts of variations would be in 2022 and 2024. of course, we can't be certain it will play out the same way, but i think that's the best prediction that we can make, based on results that i found

for the 2020 election. >> professor, quickly, i have built my survey question of the week around you and your data. your bottom line is we should be more concerned about the way ballots will be counted than ballots will be cast. take 30 seconds and explain why. >> well, i think that is definitely the case. i'm much more concerned about some of the new laws and regulations that are being put in effect that have to do with the governance of elections and who gets to count the ballots, ultimately. the fact that we see challenges to election officials. the fact that we see candidates running for secretary of state across the country who are following the former president, in his claims of widespread fraud in 2020, we have to be concerned about how some of those officials would respond in the event there's a close election. and there are questions raised in the future.

>> alan abramowitz, thank you for your time. i appreciate it. i encourage people to read what you published at sabato's crystal ball. to everybody at home, i want to know what you think. go to my web website @smerconish.com. this is my survey question. which do you think is a greater threat to democracy, the way we cast our ballots or the way we count them? tweet my at my smerconish page. this comes from the world of twitter which says, why add fuel to the fire, michael? the wording implies there is a threat to our democracy. don't we have enough miss trust now? ck grammy waiting for spring, the president thinks it's threatened but not in a conventional way. to the point where here's someone who actually did the

analysis and found that passion moves the needle. sure, it's important to keep an eye on laws that apply to ballot access, but in the event, people who want to come out and vote are coming out to vote. what you need to be more concerned about the way in which those ballots are going to be counted. and i think that's a significant concern and threat, so that's why i'm talking about it. up ahead did a 2017 "the new york times" editorial falsely link sarah palin's pac to the gabrielle giffords shooting have disregard for the truth. have the way the jury is weighing her case and with it the future of american defamation law. plus, i know you heard this story. a teenager figured out how to track the movement of the private jet of elon musk. musk personally reached out to him and asked him to stop. jack sweeney is here to explain what he is up to.

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when i heard the news about elon musk's jet being tracked by a teenager who, by the way is my next guest, i immediately thought of a scene from the legendary movie "wall street." do you remember a young trader is played by charlie sheen and in this scene, he's been enlisted to spy on a business rival. >> excuse me, excuse me. is mr. -- aboard that plane -- [ bleep ] my boss is going to kill me. do you know where that plane is going? >> erie, pennsylvania. >> thank you. 19-year-old jack sweeney has been tracking the tesla spacex billionaire's gulf stream. on twitter, says elonjet uses public records to track the flights but also like moguls like jeff bezos. but musk sent him a private

message asking him to stop. musk's direct message which sweeney shared with us but we've not been able to verify by spacex is this. you can take this down, it's a security risk? sweeney applied, yes, i can, it will cost you a model 3 only joking unless -- question mark. >> musk offered him $5,000 writing i don't like the idea of being shut down by a nut case. sweeney countered asking for 50,000. >> musk said it didn't feel like, quote, pay to shut this down. sweeney replied options like remuneration like an internship would make it easier. it has 375,000 followers. recently, the ceo of a car leasing company offered jack a three-year lease on to take the account down. he's holding firm. we reached out to musk, he's

apparently not available. jack sweeney joins me from the university of central florida. jack, what are you majoring in and what is your career aspiration? >> majoring here in i.t. in ucf. and i want to do software aviation like i am right now, basically. >> what was the plan when you started tracking elon musk's gulfstream? >> i was a man of elon and tesla and spacex and everything he's got going on. just interested in where he's going. just a hobby to see what business he was up. >> fair to say, though, that never was the goal, hey, i'm going to track him and get him to pay me money? >> no, i was a fan. i'd never want to just try to get money out of him. >> what about the concern that he raises that perhaps this poses a security threat? >> you know, there is some merit to that. but, you know, i don't know if he's being completely truthful that it's all security. maybe he just doesn't want to be

seen. and i don't think the security risk -- it's that big because even just recently, elon had an event in texas. someone asked him if he would come to this public event, and he said, sure. if he can go to events like that, i don't think he has that big of a security risk. >> listen, "wall street," the movie is before your time. it's a hell of a film and impacted my generation. i don't know if you were able to see the clip that we played. here's a point i was making there's probably a great deal to be learned about musk businesswise by knowing his physical whereabouts? has that occurred to you? >> yeah, it has. after i started, you see where he's going that you haven't seen before, all the tesla factories, all the spacex places, he's going to those. and you can see what's going on. >> has he made it more difficult for you to track his flights? >> yes. he got most -- the highest level

of blocking. but actually, just in the past couple days it's been turned off. i mean, have they given up? i guess. it's really strange. >> is this based on all publicly available information? if i had your level of knowledge and sophistication, would i be able to do exactly what you're doing? >> yeah, you'd be able to track this flight like i am on twitter. >> who else are you tracking and why? >> we have been bill gates, jeff bezos. trump. mark zuckerberg. mark cuban. and, you know, just people are interested. after i started the first one, people were asking for others. i started that and adding them. >> has anybody else beefed the way that musk has? >> no. i mean, the accounts aren't as big. musk is really big on twitter so you can understand why it's gotten as big as it has. i don't think there's as much

attention on other ones like e elon's. >> what is your current demand, relative to musk, what would it take to go away and stop this? >> still a tesla and $50,000. i'm not going to up it. there's no need to. >> i bet people who are watching this are making a determination whether this is ambition, this is in the american spirit or whenever it gets a bit obnoxious, you would tell them what? >> i just started as a hobby. i don't want to let go of a hobby for something that's not really going to change my life, you know. it's something that i enjoy doing and i find it really cool to do. >> but the new tesla, that would change your life? >> yeah, i don't have a car right now. and it would be great to have a car and it would be a really cool car. >> i'm sure that he probably -- i don't know. i'm a musk fan myself. i'm sure that he admired this in part but thinks if he settled up

with you the way you want, he's opening up a door -- >> yes, other people would want to do it, too. >> yeah, i hear you. well, i wish you good things with your studies. >> thank you. >> let's see what you're saying via my smerconish twitter and facebook pages from the world of twitter. laugh out loud, i have owned a tesla for six years and you are a relatively new other than oop lone musk has been tracking our private cars and driving skill sets for years. how do you feel now? that is so funny. quick story. in our house, we were playing oculus this week which is owned, i think, by facebook. one of my sons said, dad, imagine if the u.s. government said we want to put a camera in your living room. we'd be like, don't tread on me, over my dead body. and yet, voluntarily, to your

point about tesla, we've given faye and zuckerberg that window into our living room by playing oculus. it's so true. i want you to go to smerconish.com and answer the survey question, which is a greater threat to democracy? the way we cast ballots or the way we count them. up ahead, sarah palin's defamation case against "the new york times" has gone to the jury. now, they've got to decide whether the 2017 "times" editorial that linked her pac to congresswoman gabrielle giffords involved the truth, i'll talk to a reporter in the courthouse. and allowing champion swimmer lia thomas to compete in ivy league championships overruling the testosterone rules ignoring teammates who say she has an unfair advantage. i will ask an olympipics gold medalist to weigh in.

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are you a christian author with a book that you're ready to share with the world? get published now, call for your free publisher kit today! the defamation trial of sarah palin versus "the new york times" now in the hands of a federal government jury. this week, both palin and former "times" editorial page james bennett took the stand. the "times" was wrong when it published a june 17th editorial titled america's lethal politics. the editorial had been prompted by the shooting at a congressional softball practice that wounded republican congressman steve scalise. it brought up the 2011 shooting of democratic congresswoman

gabby giffords in arizona and wrongly stated, twice, that her shooting had been quote-unquote incited by this ad by pale an's pac. and on targets of congress. and within a day that wording was removed. testimony on how the falsehoods ended up in print. the piece was written by a "times" staffer. bennett added the incitement language per "times" procedure playback. he twice sent it back to williamson. williamson testified she had been the one to introduce the palin ad but also sent the final revision did not read it thoroughly in respect i wish i had. bennett took responsibility. he said this about the process.

quote, this is my fault, right? i wrote those sentences and i'm not looking to shift the blame to anyone else, yeah, i mean, this is why we send playback. they're the ones in possession of the stories and review pieces to make sure others haven't introduced errors. established by the 1964 supreme court ruling in a case called "the new york times" versus sullivan. under sullivan, the "times" should only be found liable with knowledge of falsity or regardless disregard for the truth. here is how u.s. district court judge jed rakoff found it. quote, even irresponsible

reporting or a demonstrated failure to follow professional journalistic standards does not on its own establish actual malice, unless the plaintiff has proved that there was a high probability that mr. bennett actually bouted the truth of the challenge statement that you are considering. and that the statement was false. joining me senior legal affairs reporter for politico who has been in the courthouse covering the trial for them. josh, the "times" screwed up. they abcknowledge that. now the action for the jury malice falsity or disregard for the truth. is there any evidence in this case that the "times" had knowledge of falsity when they published the editorial? >> well, i mean, if you look at the "times" agens a whole, as a institution, they certainly did, michael, it was well established by that time. we're talking six years after the arizona shooting in which

gabby giffords was badly wounded and six other people, including a federal judge and a 9-year-old girl were killed. it was pretty well established whatever palin's pac had said, had put out there, there was really no sign that had anything to do with this mentally deranged individual jared loughner who carried out that shooting. people on the "times" staff knew, in fact there are emails in james bennenettbennett's ema. but the question is did he have that in his mind when he amped up and sent it to washington. >> interesting to hearing your response, i had thought the vulnerability they faced was more on the recklessness standard by the way in which the incitement got inverted into that editorial. >> well, i think that's probably a bigger vulnerability. if you think about it, the

notion that james bennet or others on the editorial staff would insert falsehoods into the editorial is far-fetched. it doesn't make sense as said to the jury just said. why would a journalist want to put in a fact that by 10:00 that night or 5:00 the next morning, they were scrambling to fix and correct, a process which is considered very embarrassing by the journalists i work with. and everyone on the stand for "the new york times" said they considered it to be a huge combau embarrassment for the paper. was it does rise to the level of recklessness? >> josh, i know we're in the weeds but if i were sarah palin's lawyer i would not like the charge that the judge gave when he defined reckless disregard. even the following to

professional standard zs not on its own establish actual malice unless the mraf has proved that high probability that mr. bennet actually doubted the truth. i'll stop right there. i think the judge is implying that bennet had to have a knowledge of falsity. this is me speaking and inflated falsity and disregard for the truth. this case will not end with a verdict from the jury. there's a lot here and this is what palin wants that is going to be handled by appellate courts. do you agree? >> yeah, i think that's true. her lawyers indicated they thought it was a good vehicle to challenge "the new york times" versus sullivan that's been the bedrock for more than half a century. i have my doubts whether this is a case how new york has changed its laws to embody that actual malice standard on a permanent basis regardless of what the

u.s. supreme court does. there's no question that's what they wanted. and remember, she's only asking, really, the jury for a dollar here. her lawyer talked about a dollar or ten dollars. it does seem like it's some kind of symbolic battle aimed at making some change at the law, rather than making her whole, if she in fact was damaged by this. >> a great point. that she was not able to bet a punitive damage request before this jury. as you pointed out in your reporting in politico, her attorney said, essentially, give her a dollar. josh, your reporting on this has been terrific. >> thanks. checking in on social media reaction. what do we have from the world of twitter? everyone should be rooting against "the new york times." the media has lost their way and needs to be held accountable. that goes for left and right outlets. hold on, jimmy, whoa, whoa. it's a fascinating case. i'm interested in it because i

want to know whether "the new york times" versus sullivan should apply to a world in which there's an internet and everybody has a platform. i mean, i'd buy into the premise of the fundamental case which is the precedent. which is to say, public figures, someone like me, have access to the media airwaves and can consequently defense themselves in a way that's not a public figure. that makes sense to me. whether it stands the test of time to everybody with pajamas with feet in them and a journalist i think it's worthy of a second look. that's what i'm saying. but it's a really interesting case. we'll see what happens this week. i want to remind to you answer the survey question at smerconish.com. which is a greater threat to democracy? the way we cast ballots or the way we count them? still to come record penn swimmer lia thomas will be allowed to. compete in ivy league

championships. this goes against testosterone rules in ncaa swimming and a letter from 16 teammates claiming thomas has advantages that can only come from male pub puberty. i'll talk to nancy hogs head herself. a three-time olympic swimmer. unleash the freshness... ♪ still fresh ♪ frsshhhhhh in wash-scent booster ♪ downy unstopables

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swimmer to the key in ivy league championships which kick off this wednesday, as well as ncaa championships. this despite a recent rule change by usa swimming, the sports governing association which reduced the permitted amount of testosterone in trans swimmers despite a letter of 16 of her teammates saying she has an unfair advantage adding someone with height, lung capacity advantages that could only come with male puberty. the letter was delivered by my next guest. the controversy is lia thomas, a senior who came out after competing on the men's team. this is her first on a woman's team. out of ohio, thomas set two national records on the 60-yard free style she outpaced her

teammate by 38 seconds. thomas only gave one interview to the podcast swimswam in december. here's part of what she had to say. >> we expected there would be in measure of pushback by people not to the extent that we weren't fully expecting. i just don't engage with it. it's not healthy for me to read it and engage with it at all. so, i don't. that's all i'll say on that. >> after usa swimming which had 400,000 members tightened its requirements for elite trans athletes. the group of thomas' teammates asked the league not to challenge the rules. it read in part it fully supported lia thomas' position to affirm her identity.

the biology of sex is a separate issue. biologically lia holds advantage over competition that have bounced from 462 as a male to number one as a female. the letter was sent by my next guest who has earned perspective on the issues. nancy hogshead-makar joins me now. i should mention we invited lia thomas to come on. did not hear back. nancy, this is confusing the ncaa said individual sports can set their own rules but then did not honor the decision of usa swimming. do i have that right? >> you do. it's unusual that the ncaa would

ask usa swimming, a national governing body that the two sports organizations typically have very little to do with each other. but it asked the sports organization to come up with rules. they did so and they did so in a way that we have a petition out signed by over 3,000 people that actually prioritized biological women. and the ncaa decided not to except those new rule changes. >> the 16 teammates, you don't republ represent them in a legal sense, i should make clear, but you played a role in facilitating their perspective being heard by the ivy league. do they have concern of being ostracized or job prospects if they were portrayed on the sharp cultural issue at being at odds with the swimming objectives of lia thomas? >> oh, they've been told if they speak out they will never get a

job again. they've been today, like this is the way that it is, this is what can -- and i have to say not just penn, it's all the ivy league, but none of the athletes have been given the opportunity to really speak out on this. so, you have four swimmers that have come out publicly with their names being supportive of her. but all of the women who are supportive of biological women, the women's category, they're not allowed to speak out. i mean, this is the ivy league. these are our best institutions. >> well, i want to make clear that there's a divided opinion within the swimming community. i made reference to the letter that the teammates sent. but i also made reference to more than 300 swimmers under the banner of skylar baylor from harvard, saying, hey, we support lia thomas and her right to compete. written lies the resolution? how does this end? >> from what i can tell, until

women, biological women, have a seat at the table, they can make these decisions on -- this is our -- it is women that built the women's sports category, as distinct from the men's category. you and i have talked before about how unique and kind of weird it is that we do have sex segregation in sport. we have it almost no place else in life. and the reason for that is biology. it's because men are between 8 and 100% better than women are athletically. the performance. if women want opportunities they have to have their own team. they need to have those separate opportunities but we are -- we're looking at for the future, making sure that we have a seat at the table, because for this season, i think thalia t lia th

is going to be competing. >> quick frame of reference, if lia thomas sets records at the ivy league cohampionship do you think they should stand and will they? >> two separate questions, should they and will they, the swimmers that were doped to the gills, their records stood. and even as it came down, we know for a fact they were doping as much as humanly possible. a lot of them transitioned because they'd been on male hormones for so long. and we know that in the past, they have not changed those records. whether or not we could get those records changed -- but whose records are at stake here are missy franklin and the great katie ledecky. they're college graduates.

i think those should deserve to stand. those are amazing athletes that it really should be a biological record. >> nancy, thank you so much, i appreciate you being here. >> thank you very much for having me, michael. >> i've said before, i'm for fairness and inclusion. i don't know if that's possible in this case. if there's a solution. i just -- i'm not seeing it that's fair to all and allows all to be inclusive. still to come, more of your best and worst tweets and facebook comments. and i'll give you the results of this week's survey question, go to smerconish.com and answer the question, which is the greater threatat to democracy? the way wewe cast ballots or th way we couount them?

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time to see how you responded to this week's survey question at smerconish.com. i was asking which is a greater threat to democracy, the way we cast our ballots or the way we count them. we talked about it at the outset of the program. 76% of more than 16,000 of you who voted say it's the counting. his premise was to say, hey, passion is moving the needle. if people want to get out and vote, they're going to get out and vote. we need to pay more attention to the counting process and the changes in the law that relate to that. what do we have from social media this week? the greatest threat to our democracy is the unwillingness of some to accept the count. yeah, good point, fran. meaning the count is just fine, but people are discounting it, no matter how we count it. what else came in? let's run through a couple of

them quickly. how do you get around the obvious? thomas was nothing special as a male swimmer and is crushing the competition as a female. that's compelling evidence that something is different. one more. let's go. if the "new york times" -- it was the "new york times" who dragged her into a story that had nothing to do with her. there's no doubt about that. listen, the "new york times" blew it. the "new york times" clearly negligent, but did they exhibit a reckless disregard for the truth relative to palen. they were wrong. it's the recklessness standard to keep an eye on. i'll see you next week. wit h th. oh, you brought your luggage to thehe airport. thatat's adorable. with shipgo shipping your luggage before you fly you'll never have to wait

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♪ always grateful to have you with us. good saturday to you on this february 12th. >> you're in the cnn newsroom. >> we're following breaking developments out of canada this hour. police have started removing protestors from the key bridge at the u.s./canadian border. >> a judge ordered the convoy to leave the bridge. we're live in ontario. what are you seeing right now? >> reporter: well, this is it. this is the very end of this protest here in front of the ambassador bridge. i want to show you what's happening. you can see a large contingent of police have moved in from the bridgeside, sort of coming up from where