this is "gps," the "global public square." welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the program, kyiv is preparing for the worst as russian troops get closer and closer. i will talk to cnn's clarissa ward who reports that ukrainians are ready to defend their capital. i will also be joined by a well-known ukrainian intellectual who has taken up arms to fight the russians, as well as bandages to heal the wounded. and i've talked to the "new york

times" moscow bureau chief about putin's crackdown on the free press and what russians think of putin's war. and paul krugman on whether china can or will save russia's economy. but first, here is my take, russia's invasion of ukraine is a seismic event, perhaps the most significant one in international life since the fall of the berlin wall. this war marks the end of an age but what can we say about the new one we are entering? most important, it is marked by the triumph of politics over economics. for the past three decades most countries have acted with one lone star in mind, economic growth. they have embraced trade, technology and domestic reforms all to produce more growth. those kinds of choices are possible in an atmosphere in which one does not have to worry

that much about the core issue of national security. but today countries around the world that took security for granted, from canada to germany to japan, are thinking anew about their defense posture and forces. military security is only one part of the way in which politics is trumping economics. countries are searching for greater national security in their supply chains and economies more broadly. this is a trend that began some years ago from brexit to buy american, the policies being adopted by many of the most fervently free market countries are animated more by populous nationalism than market economics. last week china's xi jinping urged policymakers to stop relying on international markets for food. he said, chinese bowls should be mainly filled with chinese food. we may be seeing a reversal of 30 years of globalization.

for example, over those three decades mcdonald's built a large business in russia, cultivating a network of farmers and suppliers, opening about 850 restaurants and creating a sizable customer base. all that has been placed on hold and could be shut down permanently. air float the russian airline had rebuilt itself after its post-soviet break up. with boeing and airbus refusing to sell parts or do maintenance on its planes, the company may have to stop flying altogether. these kinds of measures which place security and self-sufficiency over efficiency will surely have the effect of raising prices everywhere as countries search for resilience and move away from excessive dependency on foreign countries, inflation could become a more permanent feature of the new world, even if the supply shocks caused by the war are just

temporary. we are also likely facing a new world of energy, one in which the prices of oil and natural gas remain high. that means the countries that produce hydrocarbons are going to have lots of cash, trillions of dollars over the next decade. it also highlights why it is crucial to cut off vladimir putin's chief source of his revenue, oil and natural gas. countries like saudi arabia, the uae and qatar will be massive sources of surplus capital in the world. one of the defining features of the new era is that it is post-american. by that i mean that the pax americana of the past three decades is over. you can see signs of this everywhere. consider that according to the "wall street journal" the leaders of the uae and saudi arabia, two countries that have depended on washington for their security for decades, refuse to even take phone calls from the american president. consider as well that israel

initially in the security council vote and india have refused to describe putin's actions as an invasion and that all four countries have made it clear they will continue to do business with russia. at first glance it might seem that this is a new global order stacked against america, but that is not necessarily so. the u.s. remains the world's leading power, still stronger than all the rest by far. it also benefits from some of the features of this new age. the united states is the world's leading producer of hydrocarbons, high energy prices while terrible for countries such as china and germany actually stimulate growth in large parts of america. geopolitically the russian invasion of ukraine has put washington's chief competitor china in an awkward position, forcing beijing to defend russia's actions and putting it at odds with the eu with which it has tried hard to have close ties. the greatest strategic opportunity lies with europe,

which could use this challenge to stop being the passive international actor it has been for decades. we now see signs that the europeans are ready to end the era of free security by raising defense spending and securing nato's eastern border. germany's remarkable turnaround is a big start. if europe becomes a strategic player on the world stage, that could be the biggest geopolitical shift to emerge from this war. a united states joined by a focused and unified europe would be a super alliance in support of liberal values. but for the west to become newly united and powerful, there is one essential condition. it must succeed in ukraine. that is why the urgent necessity of the moment is to do what it takes, bearing costs and risks to ensure that vladimir putin does not prevail.

go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. ♪ let's get straight to cnn's clarissa ward who continues her extraordinary reporting. she's live for us once again from kyiv. clarissa, it appears from a distance that there is a siege from the faraway city of kyiv?

>> what was on the west side of the city has started to move to the east side of the city. they are getting picked off by ukranian forces who are kind of lying in wait by the side of the road. nevertheless, their progress does continue, and of course the real concern and worry is that in a matter of days or weeks, the city could be entirely surrounded. we've heard the mayor say this on a number of occasions. the mayor of kyiv has warned that if and when that does happen that food and supplies here would only last for about two weeks, which is not a great deal of time. and the other concern is that, at the same time you see that pushed to surround the city, you're also seeing an uptick in the amount of bombardment, particularly in the superior

areas, and the worry is you're going to see an intensification of that bombardment, more shelling on civilians and strikes on infrastructures which would make it even more difficult to deal with the humanitarian fallout if they encircled the country. it hasn't happened so far. the southern area of kyiv is still open. you can move in and out, you can get supplies in and out, but fareed, it's definitely getting trickier and more challenging by the day. >> the other thing we're hearing is that the brutal leader of chechnya who was handed over chechnya by putin and who paid with the most brutal attacks possible, is now involved in helping the russian army and recruiting chechens to go and fight. what are you hearing about that and what do we make of it?

>> so what's interesting, when you go to areas like irpin and you talk to people trying to flood out of these areas that are hard hit, all of them speak with desperate fear and trauma, frankly, about their experiences encountering chechen fighters. they are the most feared because they don't adhere to the bare minimum norms of fighting in any conflict arena. today we saw video that is very concerning. it was on russian tv, we can't confirm its authenticity, russia 24, that appeared to show them meeting outside of kyiv with russian reporters. according to the report, he really impresses upon them, but the key task at the moment is to try to take the city of kyiv. that will certainly have an impact on people here not just in terms of the direct threat that might pose, but also in

templtz morale of foerjs. looting, fighting with people, killing people arbitrarily. we hear an endless stream of horror stories to the people who are able to make it safely out of these areas. there are also reports of americans being shot. an american journalist killed today. another american journalist also gravely wounded. we don't know if they're chechen fighters, but that just shows the type of aggressive fighting you're seeing. chechen civilians fleeing, whether it's maternity hospitals in the case of mariupol and all of this having a significant impact on the psyche of most people who are still here, who are willing to fight and willing

to defend their country at any cost. we've been really struck. but the cost of that has become exceedingly high, fareed. >> thank you, clarissa ward, for your reporting. the fear that many have of the chechnyan war, because they were faced with extreme resistance, they almost killed 4,000 residents. stay tuned. we'll have nor. he now drooiflz an ambulance, healing ukrainianss, but he's ready to fight the russians at a

glance.fight theready to fight a glance .

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given his resumé, gennadiy druzenko would be a great choice for a "gps" guest at any time, he is a constitutional lawyer, one of ukraine's best and brightest, but faced with war he has fired up an ambulance corps that he co-founded in response to russia's 2014 invasion of his nation. he and his family are also armed and ready to fight the invaders. gennadiy joins me from kyiv. let me start, gennadiy, by asking you a question we are all

wondering when we see people like you, how are you feeling? how are you right now? >> thank you, fareed. thank you, fareed, for such great introduction, but now i am just one of the maybe hundreds of thousands of ordinary ukrainians who just defend not only our land but freedom, dignity and very basic, very fundamental things. to understand how we feel now, maybe americans should remind their use of the -- of the country. 250 years ago farmers, lawyers, doctors created a great country. i love it. i spent one year in american u.s. so it is not a professional war. what it should be understood by american audience. it is a war that is really a popular war. me, as a constitutional scholar who used to spend time in universities throughout the world, now leads a volunteer

hospital. it's a lot of medics which save the lives. my wife who is a medic in a children's hospital near me and she treated children and soldiers and whatever needs they have. a lot of my friends who are businessmen, who are lawyers as well, who are artists have taken arms in their hand and just believe me, russia never, ever, ever could win because for us it is not just army against army. that all ukrainian nation, i have never seen so much cohesion, so much solidarity. you just got whatever you need like that, we just ask the internet to supply food for my volunteers, we got this from the restaurant the same day. i opened the next location and

we got as well. we got like -- and it is unbelievable. it is like a whole miracle. people -- even those -- russians are unhuman, to say just unhuman. ukrainians are not afraid, are not about that. they're really people ready to fight, some of them just taking arms in their hands for the first time in their life, but they still want to defend our freedom and dignity. >> so do you think, gennadiy, if the russians do lay siege to kyiv it will be a very bitter fight that the ukrainians will not allow the city to be laid siege like that? >> they will never siege my native city.

kyiv population is about, generally speaking, 4 million. not the whole population is still in kyiv, let's count a quarter of that, that is 5,000 adult men and russians just do not have enough soldiers. centrally we fight against tanks, against armored vehicle. i'm thankful for the american government, u.k. government and other governments that supplied our army with some state of the art weapons, like javelins and stingers. i reiterate again and again. here in ukraine we have a million and maybe millions of brave hearts and hands ready to fight, but we need something serious like state of the art weapons in their hand. so you supply us with that.

thank you for that. i understand it is america not like the korean world in world war ii ready to fight against evil, that is not russians, that is something unbelievable. every day i got a lot of calls, a lot of information, ambulances were shot, the child was killed, the small girl lost their arms and finally today just a couple of hours ago they killed american journalist near irpin. he was born february 10th, 1971, a guy like me, my age, and another journalist was wounded and my team treated him and delivered him to the hospital. some things i have not seen.

what i could compare it to is nazi forces. no rule of war. no any humanity. no any -- they are not -- they are not humans. but we are ready to fight. we have no choice. and finally we win. and i hope that the free war -- it is not the fighting for ukraine as such, for our territory or even our independence. like american independence war that is war for the future of this war. if we lost the whole western civilization, democracy, humanity, dignity, freedom, lost, they're lost. so when a lot of volunteers from the western countries, uk, u.s., have joined us, we say welcome and hope your government finally follows it. i know that america have used to wait for a while when the world

war started but then you joined the right side of the war and finally we together win. if you want -- if you want -- won world war ii together europe was the biggest in europe. i hope finally we will win this war for future of democracy, for future of humanity in this war. >> gennadiy, thank you so much for joining us. we admire what you're doing and wish you the best. >> americans, what i need, i beg you, i request you, armory. it is a shame for our government but not for us. we are eight year in war and ukraine still don't have armory ambulances and we couldn't evacuate people from the so-called red zone where there

was shooting. i couldn't send doctors there because to prepare a doctor you need ten years at least, but to kill them you need one second. i beg you americans, i know you are not ready to still fight shoulder to shoulder. provide my team, provide ukraine with arm orred ambulances. it's to save hundreds of thousands of lives. send them in advance. i hope to get them soon. >> all right. you heard that, they need ambulances, i hope people will start mobilizing -- >> armored ambulances. >> armored ambulances. yes. next up, what is the public sentiment about this war in russia? i will talk to "the new york times'" bureau chief. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire.

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most of russia's homegrown free media has been silenced, most western outlets have stopped reporting from russia. this comes after that country enacted a new law that promises punishment of up to 15 years in prison for frankly reporting the truth about putin's invasion of ukraine. so given the news blackout can russians learn the truth about what is going on? anton troianovski is the moscow bureau chief for "the new york times," he joins me now from istanbul. anton, let me start by asking that simple question, which is what do we think russians -- what do russians understand? what is their reaction? because it used to be that russian tv media was all totally state controlled, but that there was a free internet and people had access to all kinds of things from youtube to instagram. it seems like all that is shut

down now. so what is the state and are russians buying the state's propaganda? >> yeah, you're right, just if we look at what happened in the last two weeks, the media and landscape in russia has completely been transformed. so indeed while television is state controlled, you had plenty of independent media in the russian language operating both inside and outside russia that were widely available to russians that were being widely read, people were getting news on instagram, on facebook, on twitter as well. so that is all going away now. i think the question now really comes down to will this shift lead more people to actually viewing and watching state tv, or will russians work to get around these new bans on

internet -- these new blockages of internet news outlets? will they spread kind of more critical analysis of the war through things like what's app or telegram, which continue to operate? it's a really critical moment right now in russia when it comes to media consumption, absolutely. >> and, you know, the question becomes do people -- are people likely to believe the story that is being put out by the putin regime, which is very complicated, you know, which is rather than simply russia invaded ukraine, which is what happened, it is this story about how the ukrainian government actually is itself committing genocide against its own people in the east and then, you know, you show a few photographs of people who are supposed to be fleeing to russia and the russians came in to protect them. you know, are people buying this? russians have a healthy skepticism of this kind of thing after 70 years of communism.

>> absolutely. i think the polls show that half of russians trust state tv. half is a lot but half is less than it was eight years ago during the annexation of crimea. i mean, you know, it you look at what has happened in those last eight years, in 2014 when the ukraine crisis began when putin annexed crimea there was real genuine jubilation in the streets among russians even people who were critical of putin were very positive about that in many cases. that's not happening right now. so i think there is a lot of skepticism in russia about this war. it's not -- you know, we don't know it's the majority. a state-run poll the other day showed 70% of russians

supporting the war. again, that's something coming from the kremlin and even that essentially shows 30% of people being against it. so, yes, there is a healthy skepticism, you know, is it enough to really affect the course of events right now? that's a separate matter. >> so that is what i have to ask you about. is there enough dissent, do you think, within putin's inner circle -- i don't think you're going to get a mass uprising in what has essentially become a police state, but could you imagine some part of the russian elite having enough power to dislodge putin? >> well, we are seeing a lot of discontent relatively in the russian elite. you know, you've even seen some of the richest and most powerful oligarchs speak out against the war and also against the economic policies that the kremlin is pursuing right now, you look at the media elite here and in istanbul there are so many russian journalists and others who have fled the country in the last two weeks. but does that really affect, you know, that inner circle around

putin? honestly quite hard to imagine. you know, putin has been in power for 22 years, one of the things he's worked on very much is making sure that there are no independent poles of power in the government. basically everyone who has power in the russian state owes that power to putin. so it's very hard to imagine some kind of faction that could bring him down, even though we also have plenty of reason to assume that there are plenty of people in government in russia who are looking with horror upon what we're seeing right now. >> that was terrifically illuminating, anton. thank you so much. >> thank you. next on "gps," paul krugman will tell us whether china will come to russia's rescue. back in a moment.

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the ruble has fallen some 30 cents against the dollar in that time. one thing for putin, there aren't a lot of countries that can save russia from financial failure. places like cuba, venezuela do not suddenly have the cash to help them. paul krugman is here. putin had built up a war chest of 6$600 billion in foreign reserves. was the freezing of those foreign exchanges some of the reasons why russia seems to be so badly battered by these sanctions? >> it's part of it.

i think putin had no idea what kinds of sanctions he was going to be facing. he thought maybe it would be a few exports that would be restricted, not that russia would be shut out completely from the world financial system, which is pretty much what's happened. when you do that, the fact that you have reserves, which are mostly just deposits in banks overseas, it doesn't do you a bit of good. they're all frozen. the rest of the reserves is largely gold bars sitting in russia, which are also actually not really useful for global commerce. so i think putin just had a completely false idea of what kind of economic regime he was going to face. >> but what about the oil and gas revenues? those seem to continue on uninte uninterrupted, and is that a big loophole in the regime? >> it's not clear exactly that

russia can even quite get at the cash that's coming in. you have to ask how are those inputs being paid for? how are people paying for russian oil? if they're putting money into a russian bank account, well, russia doesn't have access to that bank account. also i think the biggest problem for putin is not really export revenue, it's actually the ability to import, which is not at all the same thing. it's becoming extremely hard for russia to access the stuff it buys, which is crucial to its economy. >> so that gets us to china. can china be the solution? can china buy russian oil and then give russia, you know, essentially a kind of barter, what can be used to buy stuff in china since china is a huge economy? >> there are a couple problems with that. in terms of china buying russian oil, you need to think about the physical side of stuff. that's one of the things we've

learned in this whole supply chain crisis era. china and russia may sthare a border, but that border is extremely remote from everything that matters. western commerce, china is mostly along the coast. there is an immense distance between them. all of this is normally shipped by pipelines to ports where it's loaded onto supertankers. there is no sea route from russia to china, there is no pipeline crossing the entire exes pans of siberia. you can put them on tank cars on railroads, but there is a handful of rail lines, and 3500 miles from russia to beijing. so logistically, making them responsible for oil doesn't make

sense. plus it's a middle income country that doesn't produce the full range of stuff. it doesn't produce the semiconductor high-end chips that russia needs. it can supply the parts for western airplanes, which is mostly what russia flies even on domestic flights. so china is much less of a useful escape valve for russia than you might imagine. >> is there a danger that this kind of weaponized use of the dollar, particularly when you're up against china and russia, you know, and some other countries like india p. >> everything from russia that, it will lead to some kind offal alternate i have and tlar. >> what we learned, and this was long before this crisis,s is that replacing the dollar as the

global key currency is a lot harder than people seem to ima imagine. what you need to have a global currency is first you need -- first of all, it has to be in widespread trade to begin with. it has to be backed by a specific economy. it has to be backed by a deep highly liquid bond market. nothing has happened so far would seriously threaten the dollars to germany. >> bottom line it sounds like don't pay and the western economy is essentially collapsing. >> the banks are talking about 10% to 15% decline in real gdp. this looks to be a catastrophic event for russia. >> ironically, those were the kinds of declines you saw after

the collapse of the soviet union, which is what brought vladimir putin to power. >> yes. he had absolutely no idea what he was getting himself into. >> okay everyone, our mission is to provide complete balanced nutrition for strength and energy.

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now for the last look. this week the lithuanian foreign minister stood beside antony blinken and addressed the world. he said we cannot pay for oil and gas with ukrainian blood. he was referring to an uncomfortable truth. the huge. a crude oil and natural gas that russia pumps into europe, produces revenue that's gives vladimir putin the freedom to wage his brutal war on ukraine. the west is trying to break that link. this week the u.s. banned the import of russian oil, gas and coal. but it relies on russia for only small quantities of each of these. more significantly, the european union outlined the plan to wean itself off energy imports before 2030. the plan could cut imports of russian gas by two-thirds by the end of this year.

these steps are necessary if implemented, but they come at a cost. the price of brent crude oil, the global bench mark, has reached levels not seen in more than a decade. we talked to one of the best minds in energy policy today, the co-founding dean jason. he said the world is facing the prospect of an energy crisis of seen since the 1973 oil embargo when oil producing states in the middle east cut off supply to the u.s. for support of israel. that was a moment in u.s. history when it was deeply dependent on foreign oil. the price of oil quadrupled in just months. our current moment is in some ways even more unstable because we're not just dealing with the crisis over a single commodity. we're dealing with a world dependen on oil and natural gas and still coal. all produced by a country that also has nuclear weapons.

but disengaging from energy exports will not be easy because so many countries are dependent on it. russia supplies europe with 25% of its oil and 40% of its gas. the head of opec said on monday that it would be impossible to replace all the nearly 5 million barrels a day of crude oil that russia exports into the world. replacing even some of it will require washington to suspend sanctions on oil rich countries like iran and venezuela. so what else to do? well, the plan the e. unannounced is sound. in addition to storing more energy in the short term, europe must diversify its energy sources. that means importing more liquefied natural gas from countries beside russia. germany is also working on increasing its capacity to store and convert lng to gas. and they need better links to gas within the continent.

germany has made the most dramatic reversal on the continent announcing late last month it would suspend the nord stream from russia and build lng terminals to receive shipments from other countries. the rest of europe needs to follow of undoubtedly, some of the effects. crisis will be bad for the environment. oil production will go up, including in the u.s. even coal use would go up, he says. there is no other way to meet global energy demand. as he put it, this conflict is forcing a reckoning with how large the gap is between today's energy reality and tomorrow's climate ambition. global energy policy must incorporate both the ramping up of fossil fuel production in the short term and speeding the transition to renewable energy in the longer term. it may seem hopeless but remember, governments in crisis have done extraordinary things. after the arab oil embargo, the

u.s. federal government instituted a 55-mile-per-hour national speed limit because lower speeds conserve fuel. the ford administration introduced fuel economy standards for cars. as michael ross wrote in the garden, funding for energy and conservation rose seven fold between 1973 and 1979. per capita, emissions in the u.s. peaked in 1973 and have mostly trended down wards ever since. and the u.s. did manage to decrease its dependence on foreign oil. the crisis to come will be painful for the world but it also represents an opportunity if we can seize it. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. don't forget, if you miss a show, to go cnn.com/fareed for a link to my itunes podcast.

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when you're driving a lincoln, stress seems to evaporate into thin air. which leaves us to wonder, where does it go? does it shoot off like a rocket? or float off into the clouds? daddy! or maybe it takes on a life all its own.

perhaps you'll come up with your own theory of where the stress goes. behind the wheel of a lincoln is a mighty fine place to start.

hello, everyone. thank you for joining me for this special cnn coverage this sunday. i'm fredricka whitfield in atlanta. russian forces expanding their merciless invasion. chaos and panic as a russian air strike hit a large military base near lviv in western ukraine just miles from the border with poland, a member of nato. the attack killing at least 35 and wounding more than 130. in eastern ukraine