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tv   Smerconish  CNN  March 19, 2022 6:00am-7:00am PDT

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are you a christian author with a book that you're ready to share with the world? get published now, call for your free publisher kit today! what are the parameters for peace? i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia. last night, ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy released a video saying it was time to meet for peace negotiations. zelenskyy said they need to be, quote, meaningful, fair and without delay. calling it the only chance for russia to reduce the damage from its own mistakes. this followed a bbc news report that russian president putin had called turkish president erdogan on thursday and told him what, quote, russia's precise demands were for a peace deal with
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ukraine. speculation has been growing about an emerging peace deal since the "financial times" reported that ukrainian and russian negotiators discussed a 15-point draft on monday. but ukrainian president zelenskyy has been sending mixed signals about what terms he'd be willing to agree today. today's "washington post" front story says ukraine's statements suggest that zelenskyy and his top aides haven't come to a firm conclusion on what the ukrainian people are willing to concede in exchange for a cease-fire and withdrawal of russian troops which brings us to the putin/erdogan call. turkey has positioned itself as a go-between between russia and ukraine. and the bbc on the call, ibrahim kaolin, kaolin says the demands include the following, acceptance by ukraine that should be neutral. and should not imply nato. and ukraine undergoing a
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disarmament process. to make sure it's not a threat to russia. and what putin calls de-nazification. on this last report, he's jewish and the holocaust would find his abhorrent. the turks confirm all forms of neo-naziism. the details are sketchy but seem to include accepting the status of donbas. and giving up territory in eastern ukraine sure to be a sticking point for zelenskyy. overall, simpson writes, quote, president putin's demands are not as harsh. as some people feared they simply seem to be worth all of the violence and destruction which russia has visited on ukraine. of course, putin may be just looking to create new rules for ukraine which he later believes may be broken if he decides to invade ukraine in the future. as "the washington post" puts it zelenskyy will have to sell any
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peace deal to his own people, a tricky task if he's forced to concede too much. but perhaps it's a starting point. joining me joel samuels the dean of arts and sciences at the university of south carolina where he's also a law professor and executive director of rule of law collaborative. he's been studying law since late 1980s and author of a leading case book on trans-national law. dean, do you hear the parameters on a deal i just described? >> i hear the starting point for parameters of a deal. the fact that we appear for the first time some discussion of terms that will be on the table is an important starting point. i think we're not seeing the real outline because we know the negotiations that utley will happen won't happen in public space. >> what's most objectionable in what you heard? what's most problematic? >> i mean, i think ultimately, the most problematic pieces will be the nature of any recognition
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of independence of the donbas region and of crimea. though the reality is that we have some historical precedent here. we know that in 2008, when russia similarly attacked independent -- or claiming to be independent parts of the republic of georgia, also based on presumed actions to join nato over time, russia went into the area and sought independence for those regions. so this is not unprecedented. >> that nato is not being asked to contribute anything, in other words, no concession on some of the partners, including, say, poland, is a bit of a surprise, at least to me. how about you? >> absolutely a surprise to me. from the very beginning, one of the things i have expected one of the conditions of withdrawal would be the removal of missiles from poland which has been on the russian agenda for quite a while. i'm surprised not to hear that. i don't think we should assume that won't come back on the table. >> shouldn't the residence of donbas and crimea get a vote on
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all of this, if there is a deal to be struck here where some control is ceded to putin? >> you you'd absolutely expect that. the reality in the donbas population, this isn't a population that want to be part of russia. in the second largest city north of ukraine, a russian-speaking city, the fact of the matter is that there was a thought that the native of kharkiv would want to join nato. as it's come into the national politics, that's no longer the desire of that community. so, i think it's important to think about what the residents would want. but in the end as we saw in crimea in 2014, the reality is are the resistance is not strong. and there will have to be concessions. we do have to realize in the end, ukraine will have to make concessions at some level. >> dean samuels, i'm also
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surprised there hasn't been discussion on sanctions. you'd think that the united states would need a seat at the table. this is a discussion i'm going to get into later with professor sonnenfeld of yale. i'm sure you know he's in the background that the corporate world not do business with russia, as long as they're invading. the sanctions would you think would go away and you think putin would be englanding that as well. >> well, that's what i have to say, this is an important first step. i don't want to minimize it. there's also, obviously, a publicity angle. it's hard to know exactly -- i don't want to go too far in our expectations here. but at the end of the day, that's why i say we're not going to resolve this with two or three countries at the table. there are too many other pieces. the other big development, we've been talking about who would be
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the centerpiece of any negotiations. would it be israel or finland or maybe china? although like you, i've used that as a long shot. i always thought that turkey would be a clear player, that president erdogan would be the middle person. we now see him stepping into the space. the more potential partners we bring together, i think the more we're advancing in the next steps of reaching resolution. but i also don't think -- this isn't imminent. we're still, i would argue, weeks away, at best. >> of course, a final thought by me, it could be a subterfuge by putin to give the appearance, he's entertaining dialogue when in fact he has no intent to resolve soon. deny samuels, thank you your time. >> pleasure to be with you. >> what are your thoughts? t tweet me at my facebook page. what do we have. how does this end, from win unless the u.n. wakes up and
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kicks that nasty animal out of the dog park? mark langer, dr. langer, we're going to address that subject as well today. what if there's engagement of nato should it reinstitute the draft? i ask that when i have a survey question and there's a military response pertaining to what we should do in ukraine, it's like a hell yeah vote. now it occurs to us if we have skin in the game and weren't being shouldered by 5%. populous, would we feel differently? speaking of which, americans have been supportive of ukraine from afar. what if armed conflict happens in the united states do you know that a whopping 38% says they would leave this country. it makes me wonder would reinstituting the draft make americans reassess the cost of war. and this, the biden administration has been able to avoid the immigration during covid but the emergency rule
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that shut down the southern border, may be expiring soon just as an increasing number of ukrainians will seek asylum in the united states. and dhs is estimating 170,000 other migrants would quickly try to emigrate. how is that going to play out? that brings me to my question, go to my website at smerconish.com and which border will have a greater impact on 2022 midterms, ukraine/russia or mexico/u.s. try parodontax active gum health mouthwash. ready to sle in just one step? introducing new tresemme one step stylers. five professional benefits. one simple step.
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and now get relief without a pill with tylenol dissolve packs. relief without the water. the immigration issue has plagued president biden since he took office. border patrol arrests reached an all-time in fiscal year 2021 of 1.4 million. since instituted in march 2020 border officials have used covid rules more than 1 million times to turn migrants away from the southern border but those policies might soon end. progressive democrats and a
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advocates would like that to happen. only seven ukrainians have been allowed in the united states due to red tape and a broken system which the biden administration has been unable to change. a growing number of ukrainian refugees have been arrived in tijuana. this week, reuters also reported that several ukrainians say they passed through a checkpoint there and were granted permission to remain in the u.s. until 2023. cnn reports this is angering african and central american refugees who are seeking asylum. asked about ukrainian immigrants, homeland security expect mayorkas told reporters that individualized exceptions to the title 42 authority can be applied to ukrainians. what is the status of covid? because of the warning of code
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265 title 42. it permits the director of the cdc to prohibit individuals' entry if there is, quote, serious introduction of a communicable disease in the united states. but with the pandemic now waning, title 42's rule may be ending soon. the cdc reassesses it every 60 days. it's next up in early april. and it's not just ukrainians impacted. on thursday, axios reported that the biden administration intelligence officials are worrying about a gigantic influx of migrants at the u.s. border with the possibility of 170,000 expected to migrate. 25,000 of them already at shelters at the border. and so the combination of seasonal factors and the al alteration of title 42 would become a mass event which would no doubt become fodder about porous borders. this is why i want to know what
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you think. which border will have a great impact on the 2022 midterms? uric and russia or mexico and united states. joining me from axios, she co-wrote the recent piece, biden officials fear massive cmigratin events if covid policies end? steph, who decides title 42? steph, cannot hear us. hey, steph, i hope you're able to hear me now. my first question is, who decides the status of title 42? >> so, title 42 is up to the control, initially, title 42 in 2020, under former president trump beginning of the pandemic
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that essentially uses the p pandemic allowing them to turn people away from the border, blocking the asylum system. at this point, we'd be waiting on the cdc to take that down and the next deadline with title 42 is in early april. >> what's the metric that we know they'll be relying on, presumably about the incidence of covid and just what the condition is of the pandemic, without regard to politics? but it's hard to see how politics won't play a role in this decision. >> right. so, the cdc is supposed to be looking at the situation with coronavirus. looking at, you know, vaccination rates. how quickly it's spreadle. specifically, they're looking at according to memos released they're looking at dhs' ability to prevent the spread. what they're doing to make sure
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migrants are vaccinated when they cross the border. and space to keep them further apart to prevent the space. that's what they're looking at. from the critics of this policy, politics do get involved more as an immigration policy rather than public health order which is what it is intended to be. >> even independent of the united states shouldering more of a responsibility for ukrainian migrants, putting that aside for a moment, it seems based on your reporting that there's a perfect storm brewing on our southern border. >> absolutely. i mean, this is coming after a year where we already saw very high numbers at the u.s./mexico border. it seems to be continuing. we haven't really seen a dramatic drop. we've seen higher than usual numbers for every month for a year straight now. you see people wanting to start over, struggling.
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you look at the causes of pandemic. and look at how human smugglers want to spread the idea that the biden administration is opening the borders after the trump administration's very strict policies towards immigration. all of this plays a role in why people leave and come to the u.s./mexico border. it certainly does not seem to be going away anytime soon. as you were discussing, you throw in the end of title 42, there's definitely concern within the administration that smugglers will take advantage of that. and kind of convince people that now is the time to go. >> do progressive democrats and immigration activists recognize the resonance this could have with voters in the midterm election, if, all of a sudden, there is what you describe in your reporting as a mass migration event at some point in the next few months? >> you know, i think what we're seeing on the left, when we look at kind of the messaging around immigration for democrats and progressives, their focus really is on ensuring there is a human treatment of migrants at the border.
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and we've seen them very loudly say that title 42 needs to go away. it's a trump era policy that made people not claim asylum in the u.s. an important role, they have to be able to seek asylum. we have not seen as much concern on what the repercussions might be looking like. but the biden administration are planning for the situation. they're trying to figure out ways to ensure they still have some sense of order and humanely treat people, even if they go through the longer process rather than turning people away quickly from title 42. >> if there are 3 million refugees from ukraine already, why only seven have come to the united states so far? >> it's a good question. and i don't have a full answer for you. but the refugee settlement process does take some time. what happens, the u.s. takes people who have already fled their country. they have applied to come to the u.s. so that process could take some time to go through the formal
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refugee process. we've heard the biden administration say, you know, according to their communications with people in ukraine and the surrounding nations that many people don't want to leave that region yet. but they still want to be able to return home to ukraine at some point. so, maybe people are not as willing to come as far over to the u.s. for a long-term refugee resettlement. but i think, you know, we'll see -- we'll see those numbers tick up over the next several months, i would expect. >> final thought. so your reporting at axios and other reporting that i referenced really inspired today's survey question at my website. i'm not taking anything away from the significance and seriousness of what's going on in ukraine. but i continue to believe that all politics ultimately are local. and while it's very important to keep our eye on the ukraine/russian border, the situation you described, mexico and the united states, factoring in gas prices, factoring in inflation, factoring in the continued pandemic repercussions, i'm wondering and i'm asking people, which border
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is going to matter more to midterm voters. do you want to weigh in on that at all? it's okay if you take a pass? >> you know, we'll have to wait and see, as someone in media as well, people's attention often shifts. so, i think a lot will depend on, you know, what the situation does look like at the border in the coming months. whether we do end up getting more involved in the situation in ukraine. i think there's so much in the air at this point. to your point, i think politics are local. there are some parts of the country where the southern border will be more important to them and other places in the country where that makes a difference. >> stef kight from axios, thank you for your reporting. >> thank you. >> more social media reaction. this from the world of twitter. what do we have? ukraine will be over, the millions of refugees pouring in from mexico will still be here. amelia, i hope ukraine will be
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over. but the situation just described 25,000 in camps in close proximity to the border already and maybe another 170,000 thereafter that is a potential mass migration event that will be explosive and have repercussions on the midterms if it happens. now, you're ready to go vote on the survey question at smerconish.com. sign up for newsletter there. i'm asking which border will have a greater impact on midterms. up ahead, should any mention of mention of economy y be returned to the discussion of draft? we'll discuss. and she really hates that.
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if the u.s. steps up its military involvement in ukraine, should the draft be reins reinstituted? i was prompted based on mixed messaging in the recent quinnipiac polling. this week, 75% of americans said the u.s. should do whatever it can without risking a war with u.s. and russia. 17% said the u.s. should do what it can without risking a war. and then asked what if russia goes beyond ukraine and attacks a nato country, 79% in support of response. interestingly, that same poll asked what americans would do if in the same position as ukrainians. 55% said they would stay and fight. 38% said they would leave the country. more interesting, broken down by political affiliation.
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52% of democrats would flee. 36% of independents. 25% of republicans. it makes me wonder, would they all feel differently, would we all feel differently about u.s. going to war with russia if more of us had skin in the game. in 1945, during world war ii, there were more than 2 million americans in active military service. of those who served, 61% were draftees. 39%, volunteers. in 1968, the peak of the vietnam war, u.s. service person mel was 3.5 million. by then, the numbers shifted. 20% were draftees. 80% were volunteers. the draft ended in 1973. since the mid1990s, the number of active all military personnel had been failure constant by currently fewer than 1.4 million. would the return of the draft change minds about america increasingly going to war? joining me now, elliott
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ackerman, he's a former marine, served five stores in iraq and afghanistan, receiving the bronze star, the purple heart. he's currently in ukraine, covering the invasion of ukraine for "time" magazine for whom he wrote this piece in 2019 "why bringing back the draft would stop america's forever wars." he's also co-author of general stavridis of the timely back "2034 the next world war." elliott, thanks for being here. it seems to elicit a strong military response which is easy to do when the military burden in this country is holdered by 4.5% of public. my question to you is should any topic of war being accompanied by a return to the draft? >> well, i think the reality is, you know, if we were to see the type of war emanating from this current war that's going on in
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ukraine to the united states, we associate the question that you asked, whether or not people would stay and fight or flee. that would be a situation where you have a naturalization or a draft to fight the war. when it comes to the war -- i am a proponent, i think we should have a draft. the draft is less in terms of creating numbers for the u.s. military, but it's how the draft changes society, its relationship with the military. right now with the all-volunteer force, since the 1970s, the military has become a subset of society, and when we go to wars, these are wars fought by other people and we pay for them through deficit spending. so it's very easy to fight wars what we're seeing in ukraine, a society that is very moi mobili. and it's often a parlor game, it's not like you said, everyone
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has skin in the game. >> so, in other words, it's not a situation where too few serve and it's easier for politicians to send other kids into battle, but also we don't monitor the spending the way you think we would, it's too easy to ramp up and spend on all of the arm maments that are necessary. >> absolutely. you say the entire military is composed of conscripts. the specter of the draft, the fact that every single 18-year-old, man or women, because women who can now serve throughout the u.s. military would be subject to a draft in the 21st century. if they were subject to that, it would have households paying much closer attention to issues of war and peace and military expenditure. i think that's ultimately a healthy thing for american society. we've gone in too far away from that. >> in 2019, and you were then
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really reflecting on the endless wars that follow the events of september 11th. here's what you wrote then. i'll put it on the screen and read it a loud. you said to avoid it the major continuous of terror wars, we must move the issues of war and peace from the periphery of the our national discourse to its center. and the only way to do that i increasingly believe is to reconsider the draft." my point is you didn't have ukraine on the brain, at least as far as i know at that time. how, if at all, has your thinking change idea. >> my thinking hasn't changed. and correct, i was writing that in the context of 20 years of forever wars. but i think where we are right now as the united states is pondering what ukraine means and is considering what a major war with a peer level adversary, whether it's a klechina or a rua
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means we could have a distorted view of what war is. war, with a competitor would not just be like the 20 years of war that we just went through which were were the a very low boil. which we've seen the russian military in 20 days lost twice as many soldiers ages as the u. lost in 20 years of war. >> finally, elliott, i would be remiss if i didn't ask for your view of the ground given where you are? >> the ukrainians that i'm speaking with have a very determined resolve in this fight. but i think what is increasingly clear, is that this is a conflict that is going to go for quite some time. and whether or not the u.s. is or is not interested in what's going on in ukraine is going to have a significant impact on our country. and the entire world. >> elliott ackerman, stay safe. thanks for the report. i really appreciate it. >> thank you. more social media from
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twitter from facebook and also from youtube. what do we have, kathryn? from youtube, i think. we can't get people to wear a mask and you think a draft will happen? barbara, isn't that true? we fight about masks and not the commitment of sons and daughter to a conflict. look, i agree with his premise, both on the spending as well as who fights the wars. we make it too easy. people who make the determinations don't have personal skin in the game. the vast majority of them do not. and it just, i think, brings additional scrutiny on the very serious choices that have to be made. anytime you're talking about increased commitment of united states personnel. nobody is talking about today. but we could be talking about it tomorrow. which is why i wanted to have the conversation. i want to remind you go to the survey question at smerconish.com today. it's a political question. which border is going to have a greater impact when americans vote in the midterms? will it be ukraine and russia?
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because we believe dreams - should never stay that way. this week, ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy told congress, quote, all americans companies must leave russia from their market. saying, quote, peace is more
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important than income. so far, more than 400 american and other multinational firm ss have withdrawn or scaled back among them, delta and american, sports organizations like fifa. and car companies like gm andford, cuss lines, carnival, norwegian, netflix, airbnb, mcdonald's, coca-cola. that is all according to my next guest jeffrey sonnenfeld of yale. but sonnenfeld has identified what he calls a hall of shame. companies digging in, demanding exit, and another 48 who have chosen not to change their policy, among these, lg electronic, pirelli tires, subway sandwich shops.
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and polk industries. vanity fair napkins, authentic groups, eddie bauer and reebok. claiming those shoo stop investing in or buying the products of these companies. joining me, jeffrey sonnenfield, senior assistant dean of school of management. thank you for being here. i have asked you this with regards to voting rights, i could have asked it about guns, immigration. when is it important for corporations to worry about more than their bottom lines? what are the parameters? >> well, the geopolitical context is a critical part of a business responsibility. you want to have safety and trust in free markets and social
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harmony. and tolstoy visited america, and wrote the book "democracy in america." it's that communities trust each other a foundation that believes there isn't just a tightness in the legal system. he called social capital. people think that's a recent term but that's what business leaders have to work on, powerful, financial capital. when some people say business leaders get back in their lane, i'm wondering what lane are you talking jab the breakdown lane? it's absolutely critical for them to focus. 80% of the people are behind these. >> are there any exceptions, food, medicine come to mind? >> no, absolutely not. i'm so glad you asked about that, just since last week's show where i wasn't on but you did mention and a very good reporter from kaiser health care magazine, a company cited well, we can't switch our urgent clinical trials for humanitarian reasons, we're embedded in russia. guess what, michael, they all
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shifted, with the exception of one in your neighborhood, the only one that didn't. pfizer, glaxosmithkline, johnson & johnson, they shut down their trials and moved them out of russia, so they can do more than they claimed so the public pressure and the shaming made a difference. and i appreciate your show for putting a spotlight on them. >> what about the law of unintended consequences? because subway is on the list, right? and a franchisee, nancy is her name, i'm not going to reveal her full identity, i don't want there to be blowback against her, but nancy owns three subway stores in new england. what if people see your list and say, oh, subway, well, i'm not going to order a hoagie from subway in the united states and it ends up hurting nancy and her 30 american employees? >> well, i'm so glad that just to state from the opening, basically, since we're both native philphiladelphians, i'm
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you referred to it as a hoagie and we should be going to jim's or lee's. it's a business decision they made. if she had gone to jersey mike's which is ten years older, both of these companies, jersey mike's and subways, the original family owners, the guy in his 80s, believe it or not, the guy who created it, that company had controlled growth. subway grew, 40 times, 40 times, the size of jersey mike's. and it's the fastest growing chain of the last decade. it was uncontrolled growth. we've seen that happen in many other businesses before. they shouldn't have had this brawl in russia with ridiculous franchise agreements. at least they could stop the corporate support with all as they have done. yum brands, starbucks brought back the franchisees.
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they could do a lot more. >> subway, to be care to them, kathryn, put it on the screen -- quote, subway has no corporate operations in russia. there were approximately 450 restaurants in russia owned by independent franchisees. we don't directly control these independent franchisees and have limited insight into their day-to-day operations. i get your point, professor. i'm just worried right now, some man or woman is getting dressed to go to nancy's subway in new england. they're going to make sandwiches, clean the bathrooms and wait on customers and do unglamorous things they're not involved in any of this. why should they suffer? if she loses business, she maybe has to close shop? >> she loses business, she feeds it back to the parent company, the franchiseor. it was the chief financial offer
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for pepsi in that part of the world. he knows it well. they knows the agreements they were not good agreements. all other franchiseors can act responsibly. why is it okay that mcdonald's and others we can stubbornly have the go ahead to franchise putin's regime? no, something that they didn't like, boy, they fed it back and they changes direction. nancy has a lot more influence on her colleagues if they bond together than they think. and also, her sandwich is so good, she could open up the shop on her own and be nancy's sandwiches across the street. >> listen, i'm for nancy, against putin. i'm for zelenskyy, too. hopefully, that can line up and have a good outcome. thank you, professor, i appreciate it. i notice you're getting more sophisticated it used to be who
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will withdraw and who will remain. now, you've got five different categories i encourage people to go online and get the list from professor sonnenfeld at yale. thank you. checking in on your tweets and facebook comments from the world of youtube. are we to assume that every american company is going to end business with russia in some ways does it end up hurting more than helping? chris, i don't want to be repetitive. i'm not interested in taking it out on americans doing business here in the states. and i'm just concerned, as i expressed, that when people hear the list of those that are still doing business in russia, they might take it out on the wrong entity here at home. but you heard the disagreement that i had with professor sonnenfeld about nancy in new england. still to come, wmore of you best and worst tweets. go vote, when you're at smerconish.com. can't wait to see the results of this, what are the political
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dynamics of the border issues, ukraine and russia, mexico and the u.s., which has greater impact on the midterm election? lavender baths always calmed him. so we turned bath time into a businesess. ♪ and building it with my son has been my dream job. ♪ at northwestern mutual, our version of financial planning helps you live your dreams today. find a northwestern mutual advisor at nm.com do you think any of us will look back in our lives, and regret the things we didn't buy? (camera shutters) or the places we didn't go ♪ ♪ to be a thriver with metastatic breascancer means asking for what we want. and need. and we need more time. so, we want kisqali. women are living longer than ever before with kisqali when taken with an aromatase inhibitor or fulvestrant
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time to see how you responded to the survey question of the day at smerconish.com. which border will have a greater impact on the 2022 midterms, ukraine/russia or mexico/u.s.? 55% of nearly -- let's call it 17,000 say in the end, it will be the mexican/u.s. border. if there is, i'll say i'm in that category of agreeing with the 55%, if there's a mass
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migration event. as important and significant as the events that we're covering extensively in ukraine are, all politics are local, and the prospect of that situation -- not even including ukrainian migrants, i think is a real burr in the saddle of the biden administration. here's some social media reaction from the program. what do we have? the border question will have no impact, reds and blues will stay in their camps. eric, they will stay in their camps, but you're overlooking passion. and it will stoke the gop base. i give president biden a lot of credit for maintaining this nato alliance and keeping everybody on the same page, but i don't think it's enough to offset the strong hand that the gop that be dealt for the upcoming midterm which is a combination of inflation and gas prices and crime. and if you throw into that mix a
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border crisis, that will outhand trump more than anything else. more social media, what do we have? if we have a draft again, women must be included. i'm appalled that in ukraine, women can leave if they wish but men are forced to stay. all i wanted to get to today in that conversation is it's very easy for many of us, us, i'm in this category, to say do whatever it takes to stop putin in his tracks, but all of a sudden if you have skin in the game, i think you get a different response from a lot of people. sugar, i wish i had more time, but i don't. vote on the survey question if you haven't already. see you next week. some are of intensity, others joy. all are of... various: ahhh... listerine. feel the whoa!
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are you a christian author with a book that you're ready to share with the world? get published now, call for your free publisher kit today! ♪ hello, everyone. thank you so much for joining me for this special cnn coverage. i'm frederica whitfield in atlanta. u.s. officials confirmed four marines were involved in an aircraft crash during a nato exercise in norway. u.s. officials have not commented on their fate, but the norwegian prime minister says the servicemen were killed. meanwhile, ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy calling on russia to begin peace talks without