this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the program, can russia be weakened enough in ukraine to force it to retreat in defeat?

can kyiv actually emerge victorious? british prime minister boris johnson said maybe not but on thursday president biden asked congress for $33 billion in additional aid to ukraine, a dramatic increase. >> we need to contribute arms, funding, ammunition and economic support to make their current sacrifice have purpose. >> i will ask ukrainian president zelensky's top aide, andriy yermak, if ukraine is getting what it needs to win. then looking east. will putin's invasion inspire china to attack taiwan? that is the big question, and i put it to taiwan's foreign minister in a fascinating exclusive interview. but, first, here's "my take." at first glance, the war in ukraine would seem to confirm president biden's oft expressed view that the world today is marked by a contest between democracies and autocracies. after all, autocratic russia is waging a savage assault on democratic ukraine and the

latter enjoys the staunch support of western democracy. on closer examination, however, that framework turns out to be neither accurate nor helpful as a guide for american foreign policy. it's true that many of the world's democracies have lined up to support ukraine but the world's largest populous, india, has not denied it or agreed to abide by the sanctions against moscow. and it's not just india, indonesia has been reserved on its stance against russia. the largest continent, south africa, has also refused to condemn russia and even has blamed nato expansion for provoking russia's invasion. the the two largest democracies in latin america, brazil and mexico, mostly remained neutral and abstained from voting to

remove russia from the u.n. human rights council. iraq, the world's only functioning democracy, voted to abstain on the measure condemning russia. the majority of the people who live in democracies have chosen in this great ideological struggle to sit on the fence. at one level, this might seem a case of national interests trumping idealism. many of these companies have economic interests that would suffer were they to cut ties with moscow. india, for example, get most of its advanced weaponry from russia. south africa and brazil have trade relations with russia that while are not crucial are significant. yet the idea of a grand logical crusade against autocracies leaves most developing countries very nervous. many of them have strong economic ties to china and are closely allied to other autocracies in their neighborhoods. a much better way to frame the division in the world is between countries that believe in a rules-based international order and those that don't.

russia has revealed itself to be the world's leading rogue state, intent on attacking the heart of this order, the norm that borders do not get changed by force. moscow is seeking a return to the realm of pure power politics, one in which to phrase the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must. if the west were to rally the world against this effort, it would find it had many allies. as former british foreign secretary david miliband said to me, a division based on the rules-based order is much more inclusive than one based on democracies versus autocracies. a country like singapore, for example, which is not a full-fledged liberal democracy, is nonetheless staunchly supportive of international norms and values. at the beginning of russian invasion, it decided for the first time in over 40 years to

enforce international sanctions even though they had not been imposed by the u.n. security council due to the fear of a russian veto. countries like saudi arabia and the uae are unlikely to join an appeal to battle autocracies, since they are themselves absolute monarchies, but a call to uphold an open international system might well have more traction. for india or indonesia, this framing could force them to think harder about the consequences of allowing russia's aggression to stand. if countries can get away with military incursions and the annexation of their neighbor's lands, new delhi will have a weaker move in its borders against india. as the ambassador to the u.n. pointed out shortly before the invasion, african countries chosen to accept colonial borders precisely because they understand the chaos that would be unleashed if countries try to redraw them along purely cultural or ethnic lines.

such a framing also places much greater pressure on china, which is arguably the greatest beneficiary of the rules-based international order. it is this open framework that has allowed china to rise peacefully in a stable, prosperous asia. and beijing has often spoken out forcibly against country's relations of sovereignty. it is this aspect of chinese hypocrisy that would be worth highlighting and emphasizing. of course, for this strategy to work, the west and the united states in particular, must itself adhere to a rules-based international system more zealously. american actions, particularly the iraq war, often probability accusations of western hypocrisy. the biden administration called for war crimes investigations against russia but it is itself not a member of the international criminal court. america rails against china's

violation of the law of the seas treaty in the south china's seas while it is itself not a signatory of that treaty. if washington wants the world to support a rules-based international order, it must get better at practicing what it preaches. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. ♪ my first guest today, andriy yermak, is often referred to as the second most powerful politician in ukraine. the most powerful, of course, being president volodymyr zelenskyy. yermak runs zelenskyy's presidential office and is also very close to the president

personally, having been his business partner for years before the two entered politics. yermak has been deeply involved in international negotiations, is a frequent communication with president biden's national security adviser jake sullivan and other top western officials. after a week that saw the u.n. secretary-general and the u.s. secretaries of state and defense visit kyiv, i wanted to hear from him. welcome to the program. >> hello, fareed. >> as we watch recent military developments, we're trying to understand where things stand. in the first phase in the war in the north, ukraine heroically repelled the attempt to take over kyiv but now russian forces in the south do seem to be expanding their control of the donbas.

what is the state of play, and will ukraine be able to get back these territories that russia is expanding into? >> of course, fareed, it's our goal in this war and our military force is now a great army, of course, all of our territory is temporarily occupied. you are right that now the biggest battle is concentrated in the southeast of ukraine and especially in donbas, and, of course all the world now know the name of our city mariupol in a way in which it is still very difficult, i can say catastrophic situation. it's practically destroyed, more than 90%. but, of course, we want and i'm sure we will bet all of our territories. >> do you believe the aid president biden is proposing now, the $33 billion, is that going to be a turning point?

it is a much larger sum than he has ever asked for before, and people are making comparisons to america's assistance to britain in 1940 when britain stood all alone. do you feel this is a game-changer? >> first of all, we adhere very strongly that the united states should believe in this ukraine war. second, it's really changed the level of our relationship. i can say, and it was the dream, it was the goal of president zelensky that our relationship started finally like a real equal partnership. and today we can surely say, yes, it's happened. and i say that we are very appreciative because we know

that today, mostly american citizens, carries out the effort in my country and really this strong support, it's very important for us and this very deep and very strong argument for our weakness. and i'm sure it will be victory not just for ukraine, it will be victory for the united states, our mutual victory. victory of all democracy worlds because, you know, today for us, it's the life of our people, it's the life of our children, it's the life of our civilians, it's the life of our soldiers. but we, our great nation, show

for all of the world that we win. >> you know, andriy, there are a lot of people in america and other western countries too, but let's focus on america because there is this big bill before congress for $33 billion of aid. there are a lot of people who say, why should the united states spend so much money on something that is happening so far away from america's borders? congressmen have raised this issue. what is your message to people as to why your struggle is one america should care about? >> after the 24th of february, i think all of the world, all of the free world, democracy world understand, it could happen in

any place in the world. and now ukraine defends not just our country, we defend real democracy. >> stay with us, when we come back, i'm going to ask andriy yermak if ukraine is willing to make concessions to get to a negotiated end to this war. ♪ ♪ we believe there's an innovator in all of us. ♪ that's why we build technology that makes it possible for every business... and every person... to come to the table and do more incredible things. my great grandmother started a legacy of education in my family.

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position is absolutely clear in the principle in the beginning. not ukraine started this war. not ukraine occupied somebody's territories. ukraine never be aggressive. ukraine never going with aggression to russia. it means for us it's most important, it's our independence, it's our sovereigty and our integrity. this is what we're fighting for, our land and our freedom. of course, i see that to them it will be real progress and will be real progress for us. it's the decisions that this war will be stopped and then our

territory will be deoccupied and russian troops will go out from our territory. this is the main goal for us, ukraine, in this situation. >> it seems clear that this war will have to end in some kind of negotiation. there's not going to be a total victory either by the russians or really by ukraine. so is ukraine willing to make some adjustments, accommodations, concessions, call them what you will, to russian demands such as no nato membership, or recognize crimea, or recognize donetsk and luhansk? is ukraine willing to move on some of these issues?

>> for us there is a very difficult thing for which we not really for us is not acceptable. it is our independence, it is our sovereignty and territorial integrity. of course, we want maybe more than somebody else to stop this war, our people want to stop this war. but for us it's important that ukraine will be -- will win this war. i hope that we can find the way out of this situation, but once again, today our people continue to fight, and we will be fighting up to all of the full power of victory. and full victory, once again, is back in control of all of our

territories. >> let me finally ask you, andriy, about your personal situation. for a long time, you and president zelensky were sharing a room, an underground bunker. you had not seen your families. has any of that changed now that the situation in kyiv is somewhat better? you have been able to see your family? >> yes, you're right, we are here all of these days since the 24th of february, we are all the days here.

yes, we have the opportunity to meet shortly with our families, and the people continue to work and continue to fight because the war is not ending. and our people are in most difficult situations. our soldiers cannot stop fighting, not stop in the night, not stop in the morning. and now obligations, and obligations of all people, all of the power and politics of ukraine, it's our obligation. we have to be in our place and continue to do our best and to do everything important to be -- to come to be closer to our

victory, to support our people. we have to be examples to all of the world and i'm absolutely sure that this will be solved. >> andriy yermak, pleasure to have you on. stay safe, of course. and we hope to hear more from you in the future. >> thank you, fareed. thank you very much. next on "gps," the foreign minister of taiwan on the grave concern that china might be inspired by russia and attack taiwan. also tonight on cnn, stanley tucci is back. new episodes, new discoveries, and more food. the new season of "searching for italy" premieres tonight at 9:00 p.m. on cnn.

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as russian troops were invading ukraine in late february, many eyes shifted to the east, to china. they were watching to see whether or not beijing would be inspired by moscow's actions and attack taiwan. in recent years, china's been increasingly belligerent towards taiwan in both rhetoric and actions. china, of course, still views taiwan as part of its territory, even though the island has been separately governed for some 70 years. i had an exclusive interview with taiwan's foreign minister, joseph wu. we talked about fears of a chinese invasion and much more. mr. foreign minister, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you very much.

>> first i have to ask you, as you're watching this war in ukraine, like all of us, but you're looking at it as the foreign minister of taiwan. what lessons are you drawing? >> in fact, we've been watching this very carefully and we are trying to draw as many lessons as possible. the first thing is that there's some similarities in between the two, ukraine and taiwan. ukraine is on the frontline against russia's outward expansion. russia claims ukraine and russia used force against ukraine for its historical glory. if you look at china, china also claims taiwan, and china's so much more powerful than taiwan. china says that it will not execute the use of force against taiwan and has been conducting

military exercises around taiwan. this is some similarity in between the two. but we're also trying to look at the russian actions, which is not convincing in a very smooth way for the russian perspective. and, therefore, we try to see what we can learn from ukraine in defending ourselves. there are two things, of course. the first is asymmetric capability. look at the ukrainians, they used small personal weapons to go against a large enemy. and i think that is something we can learn from. in fact, we have been preparing for that but we need to make more investment in this regard. the second area we can learn from ukraine is civil defense. look at the ukrainian people. all of the males are having the determination to defend the country. they want to serve in the military. they want to go to the war zones to fight against russia. that kind of spirit is enviable

for the taiwanese people. therefore, it is not just the taiwanese government that learned the lesson, it's also the taiwanese people, the people here in taiwan are more determined to defend ourselves than ever before. but, of course, we have to watch out very carefully. when there's a war, we need friends and allies to support taiwan, as in the case of ukraine. look at the united states and europe and japan, et cetera, they all come together to support ukraine. and taiwan needs that. the problem is taiwan is not being recognized by the international community, and, therefore, taiwan needs to act in order to have better relations with the like-minded countries so they will come to taiwan's assistance when we need it. >> what do you think beijing is learning from this, because at the start of this invasion, a lot of people thought maybe beijing will view this as a green light, as an opportunity to do its own invasion or some kind of military operation across the taiwan straits. do you think that watching the

war in ukraine, beijing is more likely or are they watching and saying, this is more complicated than we thought? >> this is a very difficult issue for taiwan to answer. we don't live in china, and we don't live in beijing. we're not decision makers of beijing, to think for beijing. but if we put ourselves in the shoes of beijing, they might learn several things. the first is possible international reactions, whether the united states is going to come to taiwan's help. in the case of ukraine, even though the united states has declared very early on it's not going to get militarily involved, but at the end, you see the united states is pulling in lots of resources to ukraine to support the ukrainians to fight against russia. so i think the chinese government must be thinking or

calculating how the united states or other major countries are going to come to taiwan's help or whether they're going to come to taiwan's help. if taiwan does not have any support, i think that's going to be a green light to aggression. and the second thing, if they think taiwan is weak and easy to take over, i think it's an open invitation for beijing's aggression. but i think we have seen from ukraine the case of ukraine is even though they seem to be weaker than russia, but the desire to defend the country and the willingness to use personal weapons against the russian enemy is something that they are able to defend themselves and, therefore, beijing must think twice whether they are able to take taiwan over and defeat taiwan in a few days.

if they are not able to take taiwan over quickly, i think they need to pause and think twice before they act. fortunately, the case of ukraine and the determination of the international community to come and support ukraine shows that the authoritarianism needs to come from the fact the democracies are more united than ever against authoritarianism. >> since the russian invasion into ukraine, have you heard from democracies around the world? have you received any kind of messages of solidarity or support? >> in fact, there's a lot. and it started way before the war started. they know that if there's going to be a war over taiwan, it's going to be a disaster for the rest of the world. so we are very happy that there's a growing awareness of the international community to care about the situation taiwan is in and beginning from late last year, you have seen waves of visitors come into taiwan,

especially the parliamentarian in europe. they debated in the parliament and they adopted resolutions in support of taiwan and they came to taiwan to show their support, and it's exactly like what the american congressmen or senators have done. so we are very happy that the fellow democracies are paying more attention to taiwan, showing more support for taiwan. and after the war in ukraine, if you search on the internet, two terms come up, one is ukraine and the second taiwan. because people in the world care about taiwan. >> most countries around the world do not have the deep and extensive ties with russia that they do with mainland china. so do you worry that china's economic clout will mean that people -- countries are willing

to sanction russia but they may not be willing to sanction china? >> that is a possibility and we have been discussing not only among ourselves and also with like-minded partners, to see what can be done if china launches war against taiwan. if you hear the discussions among the american decisionmakers, they're talking about integrated deterrence these days. it's not just military, but different aspects of deterrents against the chinese aggression

against taiwan. this is something that has been under discussion. but the assumption is right, china is more more powerful economically, and therefore will will be more difficult to impose economic sanctions against china. and another factor is look at the weakness of china's economy these days. it's not the old china anymore. old china, two, three, four years ago anymore. if you look at the chinese growth rate, it is slowing down, slowing down significantly. when the chinese government face a situation that its economy is slowing down, i think it is going to be more vulnerable to the western economic sanctions. next on "gps," i'll ask the question on everyone's mind. if china were to invade taiwan, do you expect the united states to come to your rescue? the answer in a moment. it's what you'll really pay, right down to the penny. wheather you're shopping or just looking, it only takes a few seconds and it won't affect your credit score. finally, a totally different way to finance your ride only from carvana.

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we are back here on "gps" with more of my interview with taiwan's foreign minister joseph wu with fears that china may invade the island. so let me ask you point-blank, if china were to invade taiwan, do you expect the united states to come to your rescue? >> that is not a question for me to answer, but i can tell you that the people here in taiwan are ready and prepared to defend ourselves. we are asking the united states and other governments to provide taiwan with necessary defensive articles so we are able to

defend ourselves. we are discussing with the united states and other like-minded countries how we can better defend ourselves. give us something for us to defend ourselves. speak out in support for taiwan so that we feel that we are not alone in fighting for ourselves. and fortunately, i will tell you that the united states, japan, australia, european countries, canada, they have been showing support for taiwan. so this is something we can count on. when we are engaged in conflict, unfortunately if we have to with china, we can count on all of these like-minded countries to speak out in support of taiwan. >> do you feel the biden administration particularly in light of ukraine is providing you with the kind of moral and material support that you want? >> yes, indeed. before and after the war in ukraine started on february 24th, we have been engaging in very close contact and discussions with the united states .

of course, we are answering the call of the united states and other like-minded countries how to act together with the democracies against authoritarianisms, expansionism. therefore we joined the condemnation, we joined the sanctions, we do whatever we can to support the ukrainian people. i think this has been seen. right after the war erupted, 24th of february, the biden administration saying a very powerful thing to come to taiwan to speak with us. what they want to do is reassure the taiwanese people that the u.s. support to taiwan is rock solid. >> president biden says taiwan is part of china. it's in the chinese people republic of china's constitution that china and taiwan are one country. does china have a legitimate claim with regard to unification?

>> i think other countries can say it but they're running against the reality and the desire of the taiwanese people. the chinese government have been claiming a lot of different things. for example, they're claiming china sea and taiwan and parts of indian sea, et cetera. but if it is not in line with the status quo, i think their claims are not only useless but can also be very dangerous. if you look at the war in ukraine, the russian proclamation that ukraine should be part of russia and russia wants to renew the nation, it is similar to what they claim, and, therefore, can be very dangerous. especially when the chinese government continues to say

taiwan is part of us and we want to use military force against taiwan if necessary. so this can be a prelude to aggression. so this is something we need to look at very carefully and try to make a stop before it's too late. the only way to go is for the two sides to talk and see how the two sides can live in a peaceful way. and the president, our president, has been saying in a very public way for a long time that we want to talk with china to see whether there's any difference between the two so we can live peacefully with each other. but china cannot just put a precondition on us and insist we are part of them before we talk to taiwan, and i think for practical reasons, if we say we're part of them, why do we need to negotiate anymore? and, of course, we are not part of them. >> mr. foreign minister, it's been a pleasure. it's been an honor talking to you.

>> thank you very much, fareed. thank you, thank you. next on "gps," switching to clean energy would not only help save the planet, it would also work to undermine the power of petrol states like russia. but it could lead to a new dependence on china. how? find out when we come back. ♪ we believe there's an innovator in all of us. ♪ that's why we build technology that makes it possible for every business... and every person... to come to the table and do more incredible things. (music) who said you have to starve yourself to lose weight? who said you can't do dinner? who said only this is good? and this is bad? i'm doing it my way. meet plenity. an fda -cleared clinically proven weight management aid

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now for the last look. russia's demonstrated our dependence on oil and gas creates a security crisis. it gives money and leverage to pet row states like russia, saudi arabia, and venezuela. clean energy would seem to solve both problems, but clean doesn't necessarily translate to home grown. as warned, western nations could merely replace their one-time dependence on foreign oil and gas sources with a new dependence on china, and i would add, other countries for the critical minerals needed to produce electric vehicles and other renewable energy technologies. the biggest components of the technologies are steel and aluminum. but those are easy to get. the concern is one of my producers wrote last year, is about more specialized materials. copper, cobalt, lithium, and

many more. a recent study by the international energy agency looked at how much of the minerals are used in different electricity sources. for one megawatt of capacity, enough to power over 800 american homes. a natural gas plant takes about 1,000 kilograms of minerals to construct. for coal plant, it's about 2,500 kilograms. for a megawatt of solar power, the fuel is free, but the panels take almost 7,000 kilograms of minerals. on shore wind takes about 10,000 kilograms. offshore more than 15,000. keep in mind the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. you have to build extra solar panels and wind turbines to replace a fos ill fuel plant. when it comes to transportation, the average gas-powered car contains about 35 kilograms of scarce metals.

electric cars not only need double of those two elements but also large quantities of lithium, nickel, to bault and gra graphite. over 200 kilograms in total. like oil the minerals are distributed unevenly across the globe and not always in ideal locations. 70% of the world's cobalt is mined in the war-torn and corrupt democratic republic of congo. the next biggest producer is russia. china presents an even greater challenge. it extracts are majority of the world's graphite and rare earth elements that are used for magnets inside wind turbines and electric vehicles. regardless of whether a particular mineral is located in china, the chinese dominating the processing of many minerals. the minerals industry isn't as popular as renewable energy, particularly on the left. there are real environmental hazards. but if people want to protect

the planet from climate change and authoritarian powers, they will have to get on board with new mineral projects, even the ocean floor cannot be off limits. so far the process is very slow, according to the iae. even after mineral deposits are discovered somewhere, the average time to production is over 15 years. some of that is planning and construction. but governments can streamline the permitting process to help get the projects moving. in the meantime, there are ways to take some pressure off new supplies. one is to recycle. the ft reports that over the next decade as much as 20% of the metals for new electric car batteries could be al vanled from spent batteries and other items like old building material and discarded electronics. we should also invest in research to reduce our reliance on precious substances. a boston startup claimed a breakthrough last year in creating an iron air battery.

this would not only hold a larger charge. the materials would be a lot easier to get. iron and air aren't exactly hard to come by. the west is waking up to the problem. last year's bipartisan infrastructure bill allocated several billion dollars to the production and recycling of critical minerals in the u.s. it also moved to cut red tape from mining on federal land. recently president biden invoked an act to unlock more funds for mineral projects. regulators have stood in the way of some mines. this will have to remain a priority for years and years to come for the sake of the planet and international security, we'll need to dig deep, quite dit lit rally. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. get help managing your money for the life -- and years -- ahead. with fidelity income planning,

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