this is "gps", the global public square. welcome to everyone around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the program, finland and sweden have now officially applied for nato membership. their entry into the alliance would mean russia's border with nato would double in size. is the west provoking vladimir putin again or finally putting in place a strong deterrent? we have a great panel to discuss. then the buffalo shooting suspect was obsessed with the idea that white people are systematically being replaced by other races. he's not alone. why are these demographic fears

going mainstream in countries around the globe? i'll talk to two experts. but, first, here's "my take." president biden says that combating inflation is his top domestic priority. but he certainly isn't acting that way. he has in plain sight several members that would reduce inflation significantly, and yet appears hesitant to do them. as many distinguished economists have noted, the repeal of most or all of donald trump's tariffs would be the single most effective way of reducing inflation 2349 near future. as a reminder, a tariff is a tax on goods paid by the american consumer who buys those goods. it is by definition inflationary. it raises the price of the good like an imported car. but it causes even more inflation than that because it raises the price of the domestically made equivalent good as well. if a mazda sells for more, ford

and general motors also raise prices on their cars. the reverse logic applies as well. if you cut tariffs, that also has a broader effect. when the mazda gets cheaper, ford and gm will cut prices on their products to compete. in march the peterson institute for international economics produced a study estimating that reversing most of the trump tariffs would reduce inflation by 1.3% points. larry summer endorsed that study concurring trade barrier reduction was the single biggest microeconomic measure by far that could be taken to alleviate inflation in the near term. the second one he noted would be immigration reform. this is the time to reverse trump's restrictions on immigration, many done by executive action, which, of course, have severe worker

shortages in industries like farming, manufacturing and health care. but no one really disputes the validities of these campaigns. during the campaign biden lambasted trump's tariffs on china and much of his immigration policy. yet after entering office, the biden white house has behaved on these issues like a deer caught in the headlights, paralyzed from fear that any major shift might get attacked by republicans. this defensive crouch is not just visible in economic policy but foreign policy as well. biden campaigned on the notion that trump had been a dangerous aberration in america palestinians, that his policies had been far outside the mainstream and that biden would return the country to normalcy.

imagine if biden had in his first week in office changed a slew of trump policies ending the tariff wars, re-entering the iran nuclear deal, restoring some normalcy with america's relationship with cuba. instead almost a year and a half into the biden administration, on issue after issue, we are still living in donald trump's world. biden might have paid a small political price initially had he done what i suggested, but that would have been short-lived and he would have reaped the gains of his most sensible policies for the rest of his term. the democratic party have learned the wrong lessons from the victory in 2016. they believe the only way to woo voters is engage in a trump-like policies, chiefly protectionism and cancelism. but trump voters are motivated largely by culture issues. just listen to republican

governor ron desantis or ohio senate or pennsylvania candidate mehmet oz rail about cancel culture, gender identity, woke generations and, of course, now abortion. in that realm democrats need to listen more and adjust some of their rhetoric and actions. on economics voters are looking for results, some of which biden could easily deliver by reducing tariffs and easing certain immigration restrictions. inflation hurts the poor and lower middle class the most because they spend a much larger share of their income on items like food and clothing. those get cheaper thanks to global trade. getting cheap stuff at walmart is a much bigger boon than someone making $30,000 a year rather than $300,000. in britain, inflation, which is at a 40-year high, mostly caused by brexit, is having a particularly adverse effect on lower-income groups. similarly, studies show tariffs are also regressive, hurting the poor much more than the rich. a conventional wisdom has congealed in the united states that decades of free trade have led to stagnant wages for the middle class and misery for the working class. that view conveniently excludes

the massive benefits that have accrued thanks to dramatic and sustained reductions in the costs of crucial aspects of life such as food, clothing and technology. we are witnessing what happens when the economic winds move in the opposite direction, and costs start spiraling up. it might even make us all a little nostalgic for globalization. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" article. and let's get started. ♪ on monday russia's deputy foreign minister declared that finland and sweden joining nato would be a mistake. on wednesday the nordic allies sent in their application. on friday the oil pipeline was shut off due to opinion dispute. the debate continues. is nato expansion a good idea? let me bring in the panel. charlie kupchan is a senior

fellow on the council of fell foreign relations. and radoslaw sikorski was both foreign minister and defense minister of poland. he's now a member of the european parliament. charlie, let me give you a chance to start by stating your case, back in the early 2000s and late '90s, why were you opposed to nato expansion? >> let me set the record straight, i'm now for it because of russia invading ukraine and sweden and finland are looking for more protection. but going back to the 1990s, when the view took place in the clinton administration, my

opinions proceeded at that time, one, the defeated adversary in the post-war settlement and by enforcing a new line further east i fear that the message to russia was you're not included. and secondly, the principle of not in my backyard. major powers don't generally like it when other major powers come into their neighborhood. the united states spent much much of its history pushing europe's great powers and others out of the western hemisphere. and so my sense was let's move forward with what was called the partnership for peace, a more flexible vehicle that would have allowed russia as well as other countries to work with nato. that decision was not taken. how much did nato enlargement play in the fact that russia went down a dark path? very difficult to say. clearly flawed democratization,

flawed privatization. putin comes into power, doesn't build a modern economy. turns to euroasian nationalism, a mystical claim about russia's importance in the eurasian sphere. this all played a role in his decision to invade ukraine. it's very important to say how much weight can we assign to the enlargement of nato. >> what will that argument, it was not just nato. it was yeltsin and despite repeated russian objections saying this was a red line for us, there were five waves of nato expansion, 15 countries, including your own, about 100 million people brought into the

alliance. isn't that productive? >> russia has legitimate security interests but so do russia's neighbors. in particular the right to exist, which president putin is denying to ukraine. finland and sweden wants to join nato for the same reason that everybody else wants to join nato, for common defense and common protection. and when president putin now says no big deal, we'll watch if there are any deployments, that just proves the so-called realist theories were all wrong because putin should now be invading finland and sweden because supposedly even the intention of wanting to join nato invites invasion. no, president putin has turned

out to be a revisionist aggressor. we need to stop him in ukraine. if we don't stop him in ukraine, we will find him on the boarders of poland and finland. so it's very important that the ukrainians be given the means to not only defend kyiv but to recover territory. i'm very glad that president biden has signed the package of assistance to ukraine and i hope ukraine will be able to become secure and enjoy the security guarantees that were given to it in the 1990s. >> charlie, i want to dwell on this historical point because it is so crucial. when i think about this issue, what i wonder about isn't ukraine an interesting test case for the thesis that nato expansion is what caused or what provoked russia? because ukraine is not a member of nato, and ukraine's desire to be closer to the west, remember, it was their desire to be closer

to the eu in 2014, provoked the russian expansion and aggression. so imagine a scenario in the 1990s where your advice had been heeded and nato had not extended membership to poland. poland clearly wanted its historic destiny to be in the west. it would have made moves in that direction. if putin had regarded those moves as illegitimate, he might have done some military action in poland and the west would face the same problem as it faces in ukraine, not a member of nato but a democratic ukraine country that wants to be closer to the west, are we really not going to help it? >> well, you know, radek and i now end up in the same place, and i agree with radek, putin is a revisionist aggressor and needs to be stopped. we'll never be able to replace history. we'll never be able to know whether things would have turned out differently had we proceeded with a strategy that led to the formal enlargement of nato only

if necessary as opposed to putting the cart before the horse. and moving even while russia was still trying to figure out its future. me, you, radek, we're going to be debating this issue until the end of time, and we're never going to get an answer. but i do think what we are seeing here is a test case and that russia has invaded ukraine. the united states, its nato allies have made a decision not to go to war with russia over this issue. not enforcing a no-fly zone. they're not putting boots on the ground and there's an indication of a desire not to see this escalate, not to see world war iii over ukraine, if that's the case, why would we want to give a security guarantee to ukraine? there's a fundamental tension here that we need to resolve. but i do think, yes, it's good to give ukraine the ability to defend itself. let's push the russians as far back as we can. let's also in my mind try to bring this war to a close sooner rather than later given the

risks of escalation, given the blowback on economies around the world. i think, fareed, this is probably the most dangerous point since the cuban missile crisis. maybe more dangerous because this is a hot war. bombs are dropping, missiles are flying. this is a very dangerous situation. >> all right. stay with us and we're going to talk to radek and charlie kupchan about how to get out of this, what is the resolution? when we get back. they only cover select cities with 5g. and with coverage of over 96% of interstate highway miles, they've got us covered. while wayfair is installing your new refrigerator and hauling away your old one, you're binging the latest true crime drama. while the new double oven you financed is taking care of dinner and desert, you're remembering how to tie a windsor. and while your washer is getting out those grass stains, you're practicing for the big leagues! for all of life's moments get the brands you trust

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but let me ask you, radek, what should we do with ukraine? what should the west do with ukraine? i think there's general agreement that the 2008 bucharest declaration was badly done because it vaguely promised nato -- ukraine and georgia membership but didn't provide a known pathway, no timetable. it was sort of enough to angle putin without doing enough to protect ukraine. but how do you resolve that? should going forward ukraine be given security guarantees by the west? >> actually, you're talking about the 2008 nato summit, which i attended.

the budapest declaration was earlier -- >> i'm sorry, bucharest, sorry. >> bucharest was the nato summit. budapest declaration was the agreement whereby russia primarily, the united states, britain and then later france and china gave ukraine the guarantees of independence and security of borders in return for ukraine giving up what was then the world's third largest nuclear stockpile. and russia has clearly broken the security assurances that it has given. so it's very difficult to deal with a head of state like mr. putin who customarily lies and breaks international agreement. >> but what to do about ukraine, give it a security guarantee now or -- >> well, we are giving ukraine something better than security guarantees, namely the means to do what they want to do anyway, which is to defend their land from purges, from war crimes, from deportations to gulags in russia. you know, charlie was in the obama administration, which advised the ukrainians not to

fight in crimea. that led to donbas. they didn't arm ukraine. putin thought he could take all of ukraine and extinguish it as an independent nation without paying a price. well, i'm very glad the lesson has been learned and he is now paying a price and we need to expel him from ukraine because if we don't, we'll find him on the border of nato. >> charlie, you disagree because you've written a piece in "the atlantic" saying the ukrainians should essentially pocket what gains they have and stop at this point, not try to regain all of their territory, right? the problem with that, i just wonder, is the russians don't seem ready to negotiate even on those terms. the ukrainians do seem to want to recover more of their territory but the russians, as far as i can tell, are not seriously negotiating about anything at all to end this conflict. >> first point i would make, kudos to the biden administration for putting together an amazing coalition and putting on the ground in

ukraine the arms ukraine needs to defend itself. i do think, fareed, we're getting to phase of the conflict in which the war is going to be more difficult for the ukrainians. they're now more on offense than on defense trying to push back positions russia took in 2014. and as a consequence, i do think we're going to see more of a stalemate and that will provide an opportunity for a conversation with the ukrainians about their war aims. yes, it is up to the ukrainians but i think the united states,

the pols, other nato allies should be discussing how to bring the war to an end sooner than later. i don't have in my mind some sense exactly where to stop, should we push the ukrainian -- should we push the russians out of donbas but not try to retake crimea? this is the conversation that needs to take place. do keep in mind, number one, the risks of escalation. number two, the blowback effects. i'm very worried as we head to the midterms, the america first wing of the republican party is going to get stronger and stronger. we've seen primary candidates, j.d. vance in ohio, he won that primary. what was his policy towards ukraine? i don't care what happens on the border between ukraine and russia. so it's for these reasons that i worry that the staying power, the bipartisan staying power of the united states is uncertain. the unity that we've seen across the atlantic is uncertain. the italians have just put forward a peace proposal. this is the time in my mind to begin having a conversation with ukraine and ultimately russia

about ending the war sooner rather than later. >> radek, i have 45 seconds left but i want to ask you, fair to say your solution to resolving this conflict is defeat russia, expel russia? >> well, we just had a meeting of the eu delegation here in paris and that was bipartisan also on the american side view, that putin needs to be defeated. only then will russia reform itself. if russia reforms itself, perhaps under different leadership, maybe she will join the west, which would be a good thing. >> radoslaw sikorski, charles kupchan, a pleasure to have both of you on. this debate and discussion will, of course, continue. next on "gps," last weekend's shootings in buffalo were believed to be inspired by something called replacement theory. that is a false conspiracy theory that says there's a concerted, intentional, ongoing effort to replace white populations in western countries. it's not just in the u.s. this kind of conspiracy theory is

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the buffalo shooter murdered ten people in a supermarket. he appeared to have carefully chosen for being in a predominantly black neighborhood. judging by his writing, the subject was obsessed with what's known as replacement theory, meaning the white race is being systemically planted by others. as you will hear from today's panel, from an idea being

studied by others around the world, cynthia idris is the author of "hate in the homeland." and ishaan tharoor from "the washington post," a great series published this week on viktor orban and the american right. cynthia, let me start with you and help us understand where does this idea of replacement plainly speaking start from? what are the intellectual roots of this? >> the theory, i should say false and dangerous theory, i don't want to give it more credence, the conspiracy theory about the threat of replacements by immigrants but the great replacement as we're talking about here was coined about 11 years ago by a french scholar and very quickly taken up by white supremacists globally because it unified what had been sort of desperate conspiracy theories that were related. in the u.s. a conspiracy theory called white genocide, in

europe, conspiracy theory called eurabia and in one hand islamic phobic roots that said either jews or muslims were orchestrating as puppet masters sort of this nefarious plot to expand or get more power by bringing in multicultural societies or demographic change or demographics to eliminate white generations. that in my mind is a conspiracy theory. >> i recall reading that stuff about ten years ago and most of it had this ominous predictions about a demographic title wave that would sweep europe and america. what was frightening, none of that happen. this prediction how europe in ten years would be a third muslim, things like that, had not really happened. has that deterred people much? >> no. it hasn't deterred people, in

part because it doesn't matter what the facts are. it's positioned as a sense of threat and whether it's true or not there's demme graph change, the idea is that the demographic change is an schedule threat and one called upon to be acted against with violence. and it's why they often portray themselves as heroic martyrs and trying to get others to imitate them. i will say one of the reasons that made the great replacement catch on so quickly among global white supremacists it became infused with a social media landscape and online ecosystem in which jokes and memes and video snippets and livestreaming

enable a whole different way of encountering the conspiracy theory. you don't have to read an academic test or analyze something out of a news letter you sign up for but young teenagers are encountering on chans and 4chans and elsewhere and scan it and discount it as a joke. the christ shooter made his manifesto the great replacement, livestreamed that attack and that launched a lot of copycat imitators, including the shooter in buffalo. >> ishaan, when you look at the american right or far right extremists, however you describe it, how much do you think they're being inspired by these characters like breivik in norway or christchurch shooter? is there an ongoing connection? >> i think there's a strong and enduring link between the kinds of actions we are seeing now, kinds of very overheated extremist rhetoric we see now and this tradition of white supremacist violence that has set in over the past decade, two decades in various parts of the world. i think it's really important to

stress that this is a theory that has gone quite mainstream in the west. we're not just talking about isolated extremists writing online manifestos, but french presidential candidates openly touting it. we're talking the most popular cable anchor in this country, apologies, fareed, essentially espousing it himself. and this is -- it's fascinating when we think about how we spent the better part of the past two decades really expressing over western media and, of course, the security states in the west have been really focused on the threat of islamic extremism, the threat of the ideology he's represented by or believed by the jihadists.

and you really have to think in a lot of muslim majority countries, the ideologies that drive the jihadists are nowhere near as mainstream as the very explicit racist conspiracy theory that was fueling white supremacy violence in the west. >> ishaan, i want to ask you, what is the difference between past stirs in american history and this one, which seems to be much more violent? in other words, there were similar concerns in the 1920s about america being overwhelmed by in those days italians and irish and to a certain extent jews. and that's part of why the 1924 restrictions were put in place. but this one seems to be breeding a good bit more violence. >> i don't think we should discount the very long narrative history of violence in 24 country. obviously kkk and so many other lynchings and violence of various stripes.

but, yes, what you're seeing now is a global conversation feeding into the major conversation. a sense of all-consuming threat. the thing about the replacement theory, it's not just demographic change but a supposed orchestrated political project to engineer that demographic change. that really whips up in extremist circles the idea you have to take down an entire liberal establishment. it's wrapped up in a very hardline nationalist poise that bleeds into the mainstream. i think that crossover from fringe, aggressive xenophobia to a kind of political backlash that is far wider than just small circles of people online, is new and incredibly concerning for the health of this democracy. next on "gps," what do american conservatives replacement theory and hungarian prime minister viktor orban have to do with each other? find out in a moment.

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the conservative political action conference, or cpac, is one of the most influential organizations on the american right. for the first time ever this week, it held a meeting in europe. on thursday hungarian prime minister viktor orban was the opening speaker at a cpac conference in budapest. why orban, why hungary? we're back with ishaan tharoor and cynthia miller-idriss. ishaan has been writing about this since he ran a lab in a university and has many books on extremists as well. ishaan, tell us in a nutshell what the american right has with viktor orban? >> it's fascinating. hungary is not a geopolitically important country on its own right. it has a middle economy of no great consequence, that still depends on eu handouts in many cases. it's seen a big brain drain over the past decades of its best and

brightest. but because viktor orban, now is entering his fourth term since 2010, occupies a fascinating space on the american right wing move the. i would suggest orban represents not just a template for literal right wing conservationists, but the culture war. you have hundreds of americans that have cultural grievances and see if it's true or not they're up against the liberal homogeneity, liberal or big tech, and they look at hungary, where orban has essentially smashed all of that. he re-created a system that is pro government and nationalist.

orban set about cowing institutional organizations in his favor, vowing moderates to toe his party line. why all of this is damaging to hungary's democracy and you can argue that hungary is no longer a democracy but maybe something else, competitive autocracy, this is something actively cheered by right wing nationalists elsewhere in the world and clearly here in the united states. >> cynthia, something you have been highlighting for a long time is this rise of culture issues relating to race, religion, things like that. it feels like orban really occupies that space. as ishaan said, it's not a particularly free market country. there's nothing about hungary's economy that's interesting. a lot of state subsidies, receiving eu subsidies but what

is distinctive is this cultural conservatism. >> i absolutely agree. i think we're seeing praise for the strongman approach and also for anti-lgbtq, for anti-feminists kinds of arguments and ideas, a call for traditionalism. a lot of, i think, conservatives and far right folks in the u.s. see their feelings and emotions and that political ideas echoed in what they're seeing as a success. it's the reason some of them will praise putin and even on the extreme right in the fringes, we saw occasionally last summer praise for the taliban based on the same grounds. this idea that you're standing up against the west against a supposed hegemony of a leftist liberal multicultural agenda that is eroding tradition and values. that's by no means unified across the fringe there, also other takes on putin, for example, and russia we see in the russia/ukraine conflict. >> ishaan, the putin point is an important one, which is in many

parts of the far right, in europe certainly and a few in the united states, very few, you did see praise of russia for precisely that reason. he was a kind of white nationalist celebrating cultural conservatism. >> absolutely. he and his allies have long set themselves up as this kind of anti-liberal pol in western politics or european politics, standing athwart this tide of liberalism that's watching over the west and doing things like making sure that gender and gay rights aren't prioritized. going about -- there's a structure in society in such a way traditional, national values endure. one thing that hangs over a lot of these countries in russia, hungary, especially, is declining birth rates. in orban's case, you see a ruler who is actively and incredibly dogmatically opposed to

immigration and demonizes immigrants, especially those who are not christian, including russian refugees and instead remotes a very committed program to boost birth rates in this country. he has led for improved fertility rates and this is something that is taken up by would-be senate candidates like j.d. vance here who celebrated family and incentivizing couples to have babies and it's done in such a way you argue what these birthdays will mean and you don't have to have immigration. orban is constantly saying it's about replacing europeans, it's about bringing in immigrants and not boosting their own native-born populations. there's a strong connection between the idea of the great replacement and these demographic anxieties that weigh on the far right and especially national leaders in power. >> cynthia idriss, ishaan tharoor, thank you both.

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and now for the last look. this week officials in shanghai pledged that soon they would begin to ease the week's long lockdown that has left citizens

without food and families sequestered in their homes. the lockdowns in china have left their mark. just released economic data for april shows that industrial output, what factories produced fell by 2.9%. consumer spending fell by 11.1%. the numbers are worse than some experts expected and represent the worst level since early 2020 when the economy, of course, ground to a halt at the outbreak of covid-19. now, this may seem like a china specific story, but don't forget, for years china has driven global economic growth. both through its market of more than a billion consumers and through its manufacturing sector which is the backbone of international trade. last year china accounted for 18 % of global gdp. that is a smaller share than the u.s. but a larger one than the entire european union. china is responsible for close to a third of global manufacturing output according to u.n. data, and about 12% of

global trade. so any downturn in its economy hurts the world. shanghai holds particular importance for the global economy. it's a center for tech and car manufacturing. its port is the world's busiest in 2021. it moved 4 times the amount of cargo handled by the port of los angeles. as the economist reports, in mid april, 506 vessels were waiting to unload outside of shanghai's port compared with 260 in february. companies can't find truck drivers to move cargo, and these kinds of problems have led to supply constraints for all kinds of companies. apple, as it's reported, half of the company stopped 200 suppliers are located in and around shanghai. apple said it could lose between 4 and $8 billion in sales on account of the lockdown. then there's the car industry. as "the wall street journal" notes, bmw reported a 19%

decline in production in the first quarter of this calendar year compared to last year. in part, because china's lockdowns forced it to suspend operations at factories. tesla struggles, the company began housing workers at the shanghai factory to get around lockdown restrictions. but as routers reports, it still has trouble manufacturing cars because of the shortage of parts including wire harnesses which bind the cables of electric vehicles together. tesla shoeld -- sold just about 1,500 in april made at the plant. in march, it sold 65,000. there's struggle elsewhere. microsoft and sony have had trouble with x boxes and play stations and hospitals all over the world are facing a shortage of contrast dye used in ct scans because the chinese factory that produces it was shuddered for

weeks. and the supply chain disruptions could exacerbate inflation. the world economy is intertwined in unimaginably complex ways. eve -- you can't ignore it. a looming economic downturn the china may have some hearts in washington rejoicing, but the truth is it will hurt americans. we are finding out the hard way that while many worry about the consequences of china's strong economic growth for america, the opposite, china's economic stagnation, might pose even more problems for americans. thanks to all of you for being part of my program. i'll see you next week. power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools, and interactive charts to give you an edge.

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thank you for joining me this sunday. we begin this hour with the u.s. taking a major step, a new step to shore up the critically low baby formula supply. the first palets of emergency formula arriving via a u.s. military plane a short time ago, and is now going through inspection. the product is a specialty formula for infants who are intolerant to protein and cow's milk, and will be distributed to hospitals, pharmacies, and