orange roses to represent the increase in just one year how many gun deaths we've had in this country. >> too much guns. no more, no more. no more. >> enough is enough. >> enough is enough. >> thank you for spending your sunday morning with us. "fareed zakaria gps" starts right now. this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the program putin compares himself to peter the great. we'll get a reality check on how today's russian ruler is fairing in his war against ukraine. also there is widespread agreement now the iran nuclear deal is almost dead. this week the iaea announced teheran will remove 27 cameras that have been monitoring

nuclear sites for the international community. i'll talk to the iaea chief about what happens next. and average u.s. gas prices hit a record, $5 a gallon. overall inflation hits 8.6%, consumers are pessimistic about the state of the u.s. economy. what does the former federal reserve chair think? i'll ask him. we are now living in a totally new era. that is what the 99-year-old henry kissenger said. in an op-ed last week president biden vividly outlined the stakes. he wrote if russia does not pay a heavy price for its actions it would send a message to other would-be aggressors they too canceive territory is subjugate

other countries, and it could mark the end of the rules based international order and open the door to aggression elsewherual catastrophic consequences the world over. in times like these it seemed appropriate that the secretary of state antony blinken would deliver a major policy address, which he did late last month except he chose to give the talk on china. the speech itself contained nothing new. it was slightly more nuanced than the usual chest pumping that passes for china's strategy these days. the real surprise was that in the middle of the first major land war in europe since 1945 with monumental consequences blinken would not lay out the strategy for victory but instead change the subject. washington's foreign policy establishment is so wrapped up in its pre-crisis thinking that it cannot really digest the fact that the ground has shifted

seismically under its feet. blinken declared that despite its aggression in ukraine russia does not pose the greatest threat to the rules based international order, instead giving that place to china. as zachary suggests this suggests a willful blindness to two decades of russian aggression. russia has invaded georgia and ukraine and effectively annexed parts of those countries. it brutally unleashed air power in syria, killing thousands of civilians. in responding to czechens desire for independence it flattened its capital with total civilian casualties in that conflict estimated in the tens of thousands at least. putin has sent assassination squads to western countries to kill his enemies, has used money and cyber attacks to disrupt western democracies and most recently has threatened the use

of nuclear weapons. does any other country come close? ironically one of the people who attended putin's speech was senator mitt romney who warned russia posed the single largest threat to the united states. those including myself who dismissed his prognosis were wrong because we looked only at russia's strengthen which was not impressive. but romney clearly understood that power in the international realm is measured by a mixture of capabilities and intentions. and while russia is not a rising giant, it is determined to challenge and divide america and europe and tear up the rules-based international system. putin's russia is the world's great spoiler state. this phenomenon of a declining power becoming the greatest danger to global peace is not unprecedented. in 1914 the country that triggered world war i was

ostrihungary to teach a harsh lesson to serbia which it regarded as a minor vassal state. sounds familiar? america's dominant priority must be to ensure russia does not prevail in its aggression against ukraine, and right now trends are moving in the wrong direction. russian forces are consolidating their gains in eastern ukraine. sky high oil prices have ensured that money continues to flow into putin's couffers. moscow is offering developing nations a deal, get them to call off sanctions it tells them, and it will help export all the grain from ukraine and russia and avert famine in many parts of the world. ukraine's leader says it still doesn't have the weapons and training it needs to fight back

effectively. the best china strategy right now, by the way, is to defeat russia. xi jinping has made a risky wager backing russia so strongly on the eve of the invasion. if russia comes out of this conflict a weak marginalized country that will be a serious blow to president xi who's personally aassociated to this alliance with putin. if on the other hand, putin survives and somehow manages to stage a comeback, xi and china will earn an ominous lesson that the west cannot uphold a rules based system against a sustained assault. most of the people in top positions in the biden administration were senior officials in the obama administration in 2014 when russia launched its first invasion of ukraine, annexed crimea and intervened in eastern ukraine. they were not even able to make

putin pay much of a price for it. or they were focused or didn't prioritize ukraine enough. well, now they have a second chance, but it is likely to be the last. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "the washington post" column this week. and let's get started. on thursday vladimir putin compared himself to none other than peter the great, the russian czar, and suggested his own mission as president was to return and restore land that belonged to russia just like his hero did in the 18th century. it seems to me in the repeat days and weeks putin has been having more success in his war effort, but i wanted to check my math on that. so joining me now is cnn's senior international

correspondent matthew chance. matthew, give us a sense of russia's gains in the east, which appear to be happening around severdonets right now. >> that's right. the gains are very slow, but every day we're seeing reports coming from severdonets, which is the last city nominally under ukraine control, in the luhansk region and seems a question of not when but if that key city n falls under russian control. ukraine bringing the fight to a street to street level to on the one hand neutralize the artillery advantage the russians have, but also make it as painful as possible for the

russians to declare what would be a big political victory for them when they take eventual control over that city and of course to divert russian resources. this is a battle for that luhansx region that's cost not just ukrainians but the russians enormously and the military personal put into that battle, that night, the less they're able to defend other areas they've conquered elsewhere. they've been launching counter offenses in the south in that country for instance for the past several weeks. but also it's depleting russia's energy as well. so i think the sense is is that when this phase of the battle of the conflict comes to a close, when it eventually does that,

there may be a natural pause as both sides regroup and work out what they're going to do next and gather forces in order to do that, fareed. >> matthew, very briefly, we know about russian casualties, but the ukrainian government doesn't tell us much about their casualties, and what i'm hearing they're pretty substantial as well. i've heard reports that say perhaps even 100 a day, and if you talk about deaths you multiply that by three to get casualties and injured soldiers at camps returned to the battlefield. do you have any sense how tough this has been for ukraine and ukrainian soldiers? >> well, it's clearly very tough indeed not least because of the way in which on the battlefield ukrainian forces are outnumbered and outgunned by the russian side. that figure of 100 soldiers a day being killed that comes from president zelenskyy himself. that's the estimate he's put out

there. you extrapolate that over a month it's 3,000 a month, which enormous cost. and other people in the office said it's much higher than that. it could be 200 people a day, it could be 6,000 a month. it's an enormously high price whichever way you cut it ukrainians are paying in terms of loss of life, never mind injuries and loss of infrastructure, to defend this country. as you say rightly the russians are paying a big price, tens of thousands estimated russian troops have been killed. the russians haven't spoken directly on that really since the beginning of this conflict. i think one of the differences, though, actually despite the heavy losses ukraine doesn't have a shortage of man power. it has a lot of men that have been mobilized willing to go to the front. russia has much more of a problem in that regard. >> matthew, thank you so much. so insightful to hear from you. next on gps the chief of the international atomic and energy agency on the iran and nuclear

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♪ gravelbourg, colorado, ♪ ♪ ellensburg, cedar city, dodge city, what a pity. ♪ ♪ i've been everywhere, man. ♪ ♪ i've been everywhere, man. ♪ ♪ i've been everywhere. ♪ toward the end of last month the u.s. special envoy for iran said iran could be just weeks away from having enough missile material for a nuclear weapon. then this thursday the international atomic energy agency announced iran plans to remove cameras that enables the agency to monitor the nuclear

program. welcome, sir. can you explain to us why the issue of taking 27 cameras out is so dangerous to the prospects of a new deal? >> hello. well, it is quite serious. we're talking about 27 cameras, and by the way they have been removed as we speak. as you said they had a plan and they have been removed together with some online monitoring systems that we used to have. the issue here is very simple. the less my inspectors and my analysts see what's happening in iran, the less ability we have to know how much material they are reaching, how many

centrifuges they are putting together. so this is obviously a very, very serious thing with regards to not only the possibility of reviving the 2015 agreement with jcpoa, but in general terms. i have said in a situation i might no longer be in a position to confirm the peaceful nature of iranian nuclear program writ large. so it is indeed a very, very serious move they have taken. >> so to understand it, what you're saying in a sense is even if let's say six months from now they were to go back to -- things were to go back, at that point with a six-month gap with no information it's difficult for you to know what they've made, what they're ferreted away, correct? >> it would be extremely difficult. we would have to mount a very

ad hoc system with new declarations with the ability for my inspectors to go back, to check records, to look into places. so the more -- the longer the lapse without the visibility we need the more difficult it will be. because no one, no one can go into an agreement without knowing what your baseline is. you go into an agreement saying we know how much it is, we have control, we're going to ship out the material, but without the iaea saying these are the amounts, then it may be well the case they're unaccounted for amounts of material that were in inventory that, you know, is escaping the eye. so, frankly, i don't see in whose interest is to curtail inspectors. normally history tells us and recent history tells us that it is never a good thing to start

saying to international inspectors go home. when you go this way normally things get much more problematic, and this is what i'm saying now, and this is what i'm telling first of all my iranian counter parts we have to sit down now, address the situation, we have to continue working together. >> i assume what your iranian counter parts are saying to you is, look, the united states pulled out of the deal and therefore killed the deal. why should we continue to observe a deal that the other party is not observing? >> well, but that might have been if i may a year ago when there was no process to revise the deal. to the best of my understanding and in the last few minutes no one has said it is over. no one has said the attempts to revise this agreement are done. so when we take these steps we

make this way back to an agreement, extremely more difficult. and i don't see -- i fail to grasp the end game about this. the only way for iran to get the confidence, the trust they so badly need in order to move their economy forward is to allow the inspector of the iaea to be present. if they start cutting the connections, if they start removing i don't see how this is going to happen. >> am i right in saying you've met with the prime minister of israel, naphatali bennett, recently? >> yes, i have met with him. i meet many heads of state in government. >> in your experience briefly because we're running out of

time -- in your conversations do you get the sense for israel things are reaching a critical point, and you can imagine the israelis taking some extreme measures if iran continues on the current path? >> good question to put to israel. my message to israel on this and on other things is that the iaea can do this job, the international inspectors when given the access they require can give the international community the confidence that no one is going to proliferate or to add nuclear weapons in the middle east. so for me this was very important. and as the head of an international organization i must talk to everybody. i hope this is well-understood. >> pleasure to have you on, sir. thank you so much. >> thank you very much. next on "gps," inflation in the u.s. hit a 40-year high last month.

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the latest consumer price index came out friday morning showing inflation is growing again. the report showed that the average american consumer paid 8.6% more last month for a basket of goods and services than they would have paid a year earlier. president biden's top economic

advisor admitted friday that that was uncomfortably high. so what should we think about the state of the u.s. economy and what to do about it? i wanted to ask former fed chair ben bernanki for his perspective. he's the author of a new book. thanks for being on the show. >> good to be here. >> so when you look at the polls something like 75% of americans in most surveys think the economy is seriously in bad shape or on the wrong track or depending how you describe it. do you think that's right? how would you characterize the american economy these days? >> well, to put that number into context they've been asking that question for decades, and people always say the economy and the country are heading the wrong direction but they themselves are doing okay, so you have to put a little bit of context armed that. that being said the u.s. economy today is a mixed bag.

we've had a lot of growth, we had a deep recession. last year the economy grew, created 6 million jobs, the labor market is very hot. wage increases are going to particularly the lowest paid workers, so all that is positive. on the other hand, we also have inflation we haven't seen for 40 years, and particularly anyone who goes to the gas station or grocery store is aware of that, and that is cutting into peoples living standards and even people getting wage increases are not seeing real increases in their ability to consume. so it is very much a mixed bag at this point. >> and the big debate waging in washington is what is it going to look like six months from now or seven months from now as the fed tries to tackle inflation? as you know larry summers says the fed is going to have to act much more aggressively than it's acting now. effectively what i think he's

saying is it is going to have to reduce a recession in order to bring inflation under control. north dakota, it's going to have to slow down economic activity so mortgages go up, got to do all that to put the economy into recession in order to tackle inflation. do you agree with larry summers? >> no, i don't. i think a recession is possible. economists are very bad at predicting recessions, but i think the fed has a decent chance, a reasonable chance of achieving what jay powell calls a softish landing, no recession or very mild recession to bring inflation down. >> when you look at the economy going forward buzz does it look like the stagflation of the 1970s? and does it feel like, you know, that like people were out of economic tools to solve the problems? do you feel like we're in a

situation like that today? >> no, i don't, and i could go on forever. my book points a out a lot of differences between then and now. a very basic difference is that the inflation of the '70s lasted for 13 or 14 years and not six months so people became very used to inflation and a huge inflation psychology developed. and that was very, very difficult for paul locer, the chair of the fed in the early '80s to break gnat theflation sikaelg. that's why he had to bring down the hammer as hard as he did in the early-'80s. today we have a federal reserve that knows it's responsible for inflation. it's going to take the lead. we've had low inflation for 40 years. it's got political support. the president came out recently saying the fed is independent and he would support jay powell's decisions. the congress has also been

supporting the fed. i think it's a very different situation. >> fair to say, ben bernanki, the economy is not as bad as it looks, the fed has everything under control, don't worry? >> no, things could go wrong. i'm counting on the supply side to look better, counting on the supply chains to begin to improve. there's some evidence that they are. i'm hoping and guessing that oil prices and food prices will at least stabilize and preferably begin to moderate. things could go bad. if all those things don't work out and people start losing confidence in the fed, then the fed might have to crack down much harder. larry summers described earlier is certainly a possibility if inflation persists and we get a wage spiral, all those things we

saw in the '70s. i'm not being pollyanna here, but i'm saying it's not necessarily going to be a catastrophic situation either. because, again, if we get some help from the supply side, we have an underlying spraet strong economy where the labor market is just roaring right now, people have pretty good savings. all those things suggests with some luck and if the supply side improves the fed can get inflation down without imposing the kind of costs that we saw in the early-'80s. >> always a pleasure. your book is 21st century monetary policy the fed reserve great inflation to covid-19. thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you, fareed. next on gps, president biden was in los angeles this week meeting other western hemisphere leaders. the big story emerging from the americas is a huge swing to the

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this week's western hemisphere summit in los angeles perhaps should have been called the summit of some of the americas. mexico's president skipped the meeting because the u.s. didn't invite leaders from nicaragua, venezuela or cuba. he was sworn in four years ago as mexico's first leftist president in almost three quarters of a century. he's also a populist and he's indicative of a leftist populist wave riding through the region. describe the wave because it's happening in chili, happening in mexico, seems to be happening in columbia and of course brazil, the largest country in latin

america. why is it happening in all these places at the same time? >> you know, as i look at these elections and the changes in power that we're seeing and who's coming in, i would describe it more as an anti-incumbent wave than necessarily a leftist wave. and what we are seeing all over latin america is voters getting out and voting for the nonestablishment, voting for the outsider. the pandemic hit this region harder than almost any other region in the world in terms of fatalities, costs to economies, formal sector jobs for people living in a precarious situation, and they've looked for candidates that have told them they're going to provide something different, get away from the old system seen as corrupt, haven't fixed latin america's problems. so they're turning to these outsiders, these populists. >> when i look at a place like chile regarded in many ways as a poster child of latin america,

people described it because of its fast growth rate, they would say chili is an east asian country that just happens to be in latin america. now it to seems like it has a very left wing government, and in fact they're rewriting the constitution, and there are all kinds of plans that seems to be very much a kind of left wing constitution with a lot of progressive ideals written right into the constitution. how big a shift is it in chile? >> chile i think really is a bellwether here on what might happen in latin america. there's a hopeful side to that but also a really cautionary tale. the new president of chile is in his 30s, a millennial, and he's from the progressive left. he believes in broad social rights. he believes in environmental actions but he also believes in democracy and working with democratic checks and balances and he is working with the constituent assembly which is

forming this new constitution, and they are more to the left. in fact, almost all the members are not traditional members of political parties. and so what we will see over the next couple of months because they'll vote on the constitution in a referendum come the fall is whether or not chileans go for this constitution. it's a big question. >> what about brazil? right now you have a situation where it seemed there was a trump-like populist like bolsanaro. it was cultural issues, lot of the sense of the resentment against elites, and now he's very unpopular. what's happened is you have a real old-fashioned left wing populist who seems to be roaring ahead in the polls. is that a story of how in latin america these cultural issues don't have much traction and that old-fashioned economic issues do still have a lot of traction? >> i think that's right, and

it's also i think very telling about this anti-incumbent wave. you're seeing voters turn to anybody like bolsanaro. strangely the anti-incomp bnt is someone who has spent their whole life in politics. so it's less here i think about the policies laid out. in these elections there's actually very few policies put on the table. it's more about someone coming in and promising to change things. >> that's why when i look at -- when you go to mexico there's just so much resentment of him among the -- the kind of business community and even in kind of the main stream center i would say. but you point out that in his own way he's very trump-like. explain what you mean. >> so there's a similar appeal in the sense amlo is socially conservative. so this is not a president who supports gay rights or abortion.

he's made an enemy out of the feminist movement. this is a president anti-environment and also a president in mexico who has little time for democratic niceties. he doesn't care about democratic checks and balances, about transparency, accountability. he frequencely attacks the press and columnists and journalists much way trump does, and so he has a lot of similarities in singilarity style and substance as well. >> much less reform minded, much less democratic, much less open to the international economy. >> i think as we look around the world generally many countries around the world are much less open to the international economy including the united states. and so here latin america is no different. i think as we start seeing industrial policy arise all over the world we'll start seeing that in many of these nations led by some of these leaders. you know, that said this is a

region that generally has remained open to trade or have been open to ties to the united states. latin america basically lost out in the globalization of the last 30 years. it did not cook into global supply chains at least in the global added part. they didn't get into the manufacturing that so many asian economies or eastern european economies got into. for better or for worse as the united states doubles down on supply chain resilience, as they talk about reshoring and near shoring, this provides an opening for latin america. >> shannon, always good to talk to you. thank you. >> my pleasure. next on gps david gorgon has worked for four different presidents. how does he grade this one? i ask him when i come back. hmm... back to the miro board. daveve says “feed it?” and dave feeds it. just then our hero has a breakthrough.

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david gergen knows leadership. he's been an advisor to fewer than four sitting presidents. he's also the director for center for leadership at harvard school. now he's written a book. it's called "hearts touched with fire how great leaders are made. thank you for being on. >> thank you. it's a pleasure to be here. >> you've written a book about

leadership so let's talk about the president of united states, joe biden. how do you think he's doing? >> not as well as he should be. from my perspective early on i thought he was going to be a very consequential leader because i did think that the empathy he had, the understanding he had and the inner strength of dealing with setbacks and crucible moments he's had in life i thought they would steel him for the presidency, harden him up. his heart is in the right place, but it's increasingly hard to tell what the goals are here. i think they need to whittle it down to two or three major goals and get them accomplished both in foreign policy and domestic policy. >> this is the problem about biden. many of his policies are popular but he himself has low approval ratings. do you understand it? >> i don't fully understand it. i think the message has not been his strength, and he so often has something to say but puts it

at 4:00 in the afternoon. if you've really got something important to talk to the american people about do it in prime time. we can handle 15, 20 minutes. and the role of a leader is to be a teacher. fdr used to argue moral leadership is all about the president making choices on difficult issues and there hasn't been a lot of that. i would also suggest -- i worry about the idea of a biden versus trump in 2024 when both men are in their 80s. that's never healthy. the presidency is too complicated a place and it requires fine judgment. you only get the hard call, the 52, 48 calls. the easy ones are decided somewhere else down the road. >> you have a really wonderful thought here in the book called

leadership starts from within. explain what that means? >> well, i work for nixon and he was the best strategist as i say i've ever seen, but he had demons inside him, and he'd not learned to control, and eventually they did him in. that happens to a lot of leaders especially when you get on top you think i'm so good the rules don't apply to me. i'm special and i can get away with it. and what that leads usually is some sort of disaster. so i do believe you have to learn to understand yourself and control yourself before you can exercise leadership and provide service to others. i think it's really -- your journey starts with you. you've got to get yourself anchored, have to know what your values are, know what your true north is. and then in a complicated world they can serve you well when you're being buffeted in five or six different directions. >> where do you find leadership

in your work today? >> well, the one we've been watching is zelenskyy, but you have to ask the question where are america's zelenskyys? where are our heroes? where are the people we can point to and tell our kids this is a good role model for you? societies need that, and i think we've gotten so much into the habit of when people get up we want to tear them down. when colin powell was going to run for president the first stories that popped up, where did he go wrong with vietnam? he had done so many things and yet it's discouraging to watch that. why do we have this need to make sure nobody stays on top very long? there's something that's unhealthy in this society that we need -- again, i think new generations will help to change that. >> do you think we're sort of living in a time where it's difficult to imagine that kind of heroic model of leadership? >> yes, it's very difficult. >> social media, all that. >> in fairness how you get

things done today is different. it's evolved. we used to talk about the great man, the man on the white horse. but now what we look for is constructive collaboration teams. the picture you'll remember of jack kennedy that stands out is him alone in the oval office hunched over a globe in the dusk and he's got the weight of the world on his shoulders versus today, you know, when barack obama is down there in the situation room and they're chasing osoma and the picture is 7 or 8 around him, his team. and leadership comes from teams. >> finally, you say maintain a celestial spark. >> yes, that was george washington. and he had a book about how to live a good life, and the last item was remember the celestial spark in your life. and that goes to a quote i use

and comes from oliver holmes jr. wou wounded in the civil war, left three times on the battlefield. he said you have to live in the passions of your time. if you don't do that, you're less than a man. but talked about in our generation we were blessed. he talked about people went and got killed on the battlefield. we were blessed to have hearts touched with fire. and it was really meaningful for us had we lived in the passions of our time. and i think we need to be teaching our young folks that. >> david gergen, great teacher. >> thank you, sir. it's good to be with you. >> thanks for all of you for being part of my prorogram this week. i will see you next week. earn. this is the e planning effect.

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hey, i'm brian stelter live here in new york. and this is "reliable sources" where we examine the story behind the story and figure out what's reliable. this hour i'm going to sit down with the filmmaker who testified during the prime time hearing. and also this hour a young family ripped apart by russia's censorship law. when do you tell your kids when their dad may be facing 15 years in prison? and later "the washington post" airing its dirty laundry. will the online drama move off-line, or will it tear that newsroom apart. lots to get to but first appeals to fact versus appeals to feeling.