40,000 americans that died from gun violence last year, and now the new 5,000 orange roses to represent the increase in just one year of how many gun deaths we've had in this country. >> too much guns. no more. >> enough is enough. >> thank you for spending your sunday morning with us. fareed zakaria "gps" starts right now. how today's russian ruler is faring in his war against ukraine. >> also, there is widespread agreement now. the iran nuclear deal is almost dead. this week, the iea announced

iran will remove 27 cameras that have been announcing nuclear sites for the international community. i'll talk to iea chief rafael mariano about what happens next. average u.s. gas prices hit a record $5 a gallon. overall inflation hits 8.6%. 40 year high. consumers are pessimistic about the state of the u.s. economy. what does the former federal reserve chair ben bernanke think? i'll ask him. but first, here's my take. we are now living in a totally new era. that is what the 99-year-old henry kissinger said commenting on the russian invasion of ukraine. president biden vividly outlined the stakes. he wrote, if russia does not pay a heavy right for its actions, it will send a message to other would-be aggressors that they too can seiz e territory and sub

yous subjugate others and catastrophic consequences the world over. in times like these, it seemed appropriate that the secretary of state antony blinken would deliver a major policy address, which he did late last month. except he chose to give the talk on china. the speech itself contained nothing new. it was slightly more nuanced than the usual chest thumping for strategy these days. the real surprise was in the middle of the first major land war in europe since 1945 with monumental consequences, blinken would not lay out the strategy for victory, but instead, changed the subject. washington's foreign policy establishment is so wrapped up in its pre-crisis thinking, it cannot really digest the fact

that the ground has shifted seismically under its feet. blinken declared that despite its aggression in ukraine, russia does not pose the greatest threat to the rules-based international order, instead, giving that place to china. as zackary suggests, this requires a willful blindness to two decades of russian aggression. russia has invaded georgia and ukraine, and effectively annexed parts of those countries. it brutally unleashed its air power in syria, killing thousands of civilians in responding chechnya's desire for independence, flattened large parts of the russian republic including its capital with total civilian casualties estimated in the tens of thousands. putin sent assassination squads to western countries to kill his enemies, has used money and cyber attacks to disrupt western democracies and most recently, has threatened the use of nuclear weapons.

does any other country even come close? ironically, one of the people who attended blinken's speech was senator mitt romney who, during his presidential campaign in 2012, warned that russia posed the single largest threat to the united states. >> without question, our number one geopolitical foe. >> those, including myself, who dismissed his prognosis, were wrong. because we looked only at russia's strength, which was not impressive, but romney clearly understood that power in the international realm is measured by a mixture of capabilities and intentions, and why russia is not a rising giant, it is d determined to challenge and divide europe and tear up the rules-based international system. putin's russia is the world's great spoiler state. this phenomenon of a declining power becoming the greatest danger to global peace is not unprec unprecedented.

in 1914, the country that triggered world war i was austria/hungary and soviet it regarded as a minor vassal state. sound familiar? america's dominant priority must be to ensure russia does not prevail in its aggression against ukraine, and right now, trends are moving in the wrong direction. russian forces are consolidating the gains in eastern ukraine. sky high oil prices have ensured that money continues to flow into putin's coffers. europeans are beginning to talk about off-ramps. moscow is offering developing nations a deal, get the west to call off sanctions, and it will explore all the grain in the world and then ukraine says it

does not have the training and weapons it needs to fight back effectively. the best china strategy right now, by the way, is to defeat russia. xi jinping has made a risky wager in backing russia so strongly on the eve of the invasion. if russia comes out of this conflict a weak marginalized country, that will be a serious blow to president xi who is personally associated with this alliance with putin. if, on the other hand, putin survives and somehow manages to stage a comeback, xi and china will learn an ominous lesson. that the west cannot uphold its rules-based system against a sustained assault. most of the people in top positions in the biden administration were senior officials in the obama administration in 2014 when russia launched its first invasion of ukraine, annexed crimea and intervened in eastern ukraine. they were not able to reverse moscow's aggression or even make

putin pay much of a price for it. perhaps at the time, they saw the greatest threat to global order as isis or al qaeda, or they were focused on the pivot to asia or they didn't prioritize ukraine enough. well, now they have a second chance, but it is likely to be the last. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. >> compared to none other than peter the great and his own mission as president to restore land that belonged to russia like his hero did in the 18th century. it seems to me in recent days and weeks, putin has been having more success in his war effort, but i wanted to check my math on that. joining me now is cnn's senior

international correspondent, matthew chance. matthew, give us a sense of russia's gains in the east, which appear to be happening around severodonetsk right now. >> every day, we see reports coming from sever severodonetsk. in donbas, the russian says their military priority at the moment. every day, we see reports coming out of it. a little bit more russian advancing, a bit of to and froing on the ground but a question of when, not if the important key city will fall completely under russian control. the ukrainians, for their part, seem to be making it difficult as possible, bringing the fight to a street to street level, to, on the one hand, neutralize the artillery advantage that the

russians have, but also to make it as painful as possible for the russians to declare what would be a big political victory for them when they take eventual control over that city, and of course, to divert russian reso resources. this is a battle for the luhansk region, that's cost not just the ukrainians but the russians enormously and of course, the more military personnel material they put in to that battle, that fight, the less they're able to defend other areas that they've conquered elsewhere in ukraine. it's a summit that ukrainians say they've been exploiting that by not counteroffensives in the south the last couple of several weeks. but also, it's, you know, it's depleting russia's sort of energy as well. and so, i think the sense is that when this phase of the battle, of this conflict comes to a close when it eventually

does that, there will be a natural pause as both sides regroup and work out what they're going to do next and gather forces in order to do that, fareed. >> matthew, very briefly, we know about russian casualties, but the ukrainian government doesn't tell us much about their casualties, and what i'm hearing is they are pretty substantial as well. i've heard reports that say perhaps even 100 a day and if you talk about deaths, you multiply that by three to get casualties injured, soldiers that can't return to the battlefield, do you have any sense of how tough this has been for ukraine and ukrainian soldiers? >> clearly very tough indeed. the way forces are outnumbered and outgunned by the russian side. and that figure of 100 soldiers a day being killed, that comes from the president himself, president zelenskyy himself. that's the estimate that he's

put out there. you extrapolate that over a month, it's 3,000 a month, which is an enormous cost. and other people in the presidential office saying it's actually much higher than that. 200 people. 6,000 a month. it's an enormously high price, whichever way you cut it. the ukrainians are paying just in terms of loss of life. never mind the injuries and the loss to their infrastructure to defend this country. but as you say rightly, the russians are also paying a big price, tens of thousands estimated of russian troops have been killed, the russians haven't spoken directly on that, really, since the beginning of this conflict. i think one of the differences though is that actually, despite the heavy losses, ukraine doesn't have a shortage of manpower. a lot of men that have been mobilized willing to go to the front. russia has much more of a problem in that regard. >> matthew, thank you so much. always so insightful to hear from you. next on "gps," the chief of

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and that we sell cars online. we believe buying a car should be something that gets you hyped up. and that your new car ought to come with newfound happiness and zero surprises. and all of us will stop at nothing to drive you happy. we'll drive you happy at carvana. toward the end of last month, the special envoy for iran said iran could be weeks away from having enough material for a nuclear weapon. then this thursday, the international atomic energy agency announced, they removed the cameras to monitor the i islamic republic's nuclear

program. 27 cameras were stored part of the 2015 iran deal. the iea director said the removal could be a fatal blow to the hope of reviving that deal. mr. bursee joins me now. welcome, sir. can you explain why this issue of taking 27 cameras out is so dangerous to the prospects of a new deal? >> hello. good to talk to you. it is quite serious. we're talking about 27 cameras, and by the way, they have been rem removed. you said they had a plan, now removed. together with some online monitoring systems that we used to have. very simple. unless my inspectors and my analysts see what's happening in iran, the less ability we have to know how much material they

are enriching, how many they are putting together. so this is obviously a very, very serious thing with regards to not only the possibility of reviving the 2015 agreement, the jcpoa, but in general terms. i've said in such a situation, i might no longer be in a position to confirm the peaceful nature of iranian nuclear programs at large. so it is indeed a very serious move they have taken. >> so to understand, what you're saying in a sense is even six months from now, they would go b back, at that point, with a six month gap with no information, it's difficult for you to know what they've made, what they've ferreted away, what they've hidden, correct? >> it would be extremely

difficult. we would have to mount an ad hoc administration for inspectors to go back, check records and look into places. so the longer the lapse without the visibility we need, the more difficult. because no one can go into an agreement without knowing what your baseline is. we have so much of this, we are going to control, we are going to ship out that amount of material, but without me, i mean, the iaea saying these are the amounts, then it may be well the case they are unaccounted for inventory that are escaping. so frankly, i don't see whose interest it is to curtail inspectors. normally, history tells us. recent history tells us that it

is never a good thing to start saying to international inspectors, go home. ghou this way, normally, things get much more problematic. this is what i'm saying now, and this is what i'm telling. first of all, we have to address the situation, rk we have to continue working together. >> i assume they're saying, the united states pull ied out of t deal and why should we continue a deal the other party is not observing? >> that may have been valid a year ago when there was no process to try to revive the deal, unless i missed something in the last few minutes, no one has said it is over. no one has said the attempts to

revive this agreement are done. when we take these steps, we make this way back to an agreement extremely more difficult. i fail to grasp the end game about this. the only way for iran to get the confidence, the trust they so badly need in order to move their economy forward and do all the things they profess they want to do is to allow the inspectors of the iaea to be present. if they start cutting the connections, if they start removing, i don't see how this is going to happen. >> am i right in saying you have met with the prime minister of israel, neftali bennett, recently? >> yes, i have met. i meet with many heads of state. >> in your experience, briefly,

because we're running out of time, in your conversation, do you get the sense that for israel, things are reaching a critical point and you could imagine the israelis taking some extreme measures if iran continues on the current path? >> good question to put to israel? my message to israel on this and other things is that the iaea can't do this job. the international access can give the international community the confidence that no one is going to proliferate or add nuclear weapons in the middle east. so this is, for me, this was very important and as the head of the organization, i must talk to everybody. i hope this is what's understood. >> mr. grossi, thank you so much. >> thank you very much. next on "gps k," inflation t

a 40 year high last month. there is a big debate on how bad the economy really is and what the government, the federal reserve, president biden should do about it. i will ask the former fed chair ben bur naananke for his views this debate. and advicels can help you build a future for the ones you love. that's the value of ownership. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. you love rich, delicious ice cream. but your stomach doesn't. that disagreement ends right now. lactaid ice cream is the creamy, real ice cream you love that will never mess with your stomach. lactaid ice cream. we strip in the community garden.

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the latest consumer price index came out friday morning showing inflation is growing again. the report showed that the average amount a consumer paid 8% more last month for a basket of good and services than he or she would have paid a year

earlier. president biden's top economic adviser admitted friday that that was uncomfortably high. so what should we think about the state of the u.s. economy and what to do about it? i wanted to ask former fed chair ben bernanke for his take. 21st century monetary policy. ben bernanke, welcome. thank you for being on the show. >> good to be here. >> when you look at the polls, something like 75% of americans in most surveys think the economy is seriously in bad shape or on the wrong track or depending on how you describe it. do you think that's right? how do you characterize the american economy these days? >> well, we put that number in context. they've been asking that question for decades and people always say that the economy in the country are hitting the wrong direction, they themselves are doing okay. so you have to put a little bit of context around that, but that being said, the u.s. economy today is a mixed bag.

we've had a lot of growth. we had a deep recession, but last year, the economy grew between 5% and 6%, created 6 million jobs, the labor market is very hot. wage increases are going to particularly the lowest paid workers, so all of that is positive, but on the other hand, we also have inflation that we haven't seen for 40 years, and that, particularly anyone who goes to the gas station or the grocery store is quite aware of that, and that is cutting into people's living standards and even people getting wage increases are not seeing real increases in their ability to consume, so it is a very much mixed bag at this point. >> and the big debate raging in washington these days is, what is it going to look like six months from now or seven months from now as the fed tries to tackle inflation, and as you know, larry summers, former treasure secretary says, the fed is going to have to act much more aggressively than it's

acting now. effectively, i think it's going to have to induce a recession to bring inflation under control. in other words, it's going to have to slow down economic activity by raising rates so people's mortgages go up, it costs more to borrow money and therefore, they'll spend less. you've got to do all that which will put the economy into a recession in order to tackle inflation. do you agree with larry summers? >> no, i don't. i think a recession is possible. economists are very bad at predicting recessions, but the fed has a decent chance, reasonable chance of achieving what jay powell calls a softish landing. low recession or mild recession to bring inflation down. >> when you look at the economy going forward, does it look like the stagflation of the 1970s and does it feel like, you know, that, like people were out of economic tools to solve the

problems. do you feel like we're in a situation like that today? >> no, i don't. i could go on forever. the book covers the '70s tales with a lot of differences between then and now. the basic difference is that the inflation of '70s lasted for 13 or 14 years, and not six months. so people became very, very used to inflation, and a huge inflation psychology developed. that was very, very difficult for paul, the chair of the fed in the '80s to break that inflation psychology. that's why he had to bring down the hammer as hard as he did in the early '80s. i think it's a very different situation. i think today, we have a federal reserve that knows it's responsible for inflation. it's going to take the lead. it's got a lot of credibility. we've had low inflation now for 40 years. it's got political support. the president just came out recently saying the fed is independent and he would support jay powell's decisions to

congress that's also been supporting the fed. i think just a very different situation. >> fed ben bernanke saying the economy is not as bad as it looks. the fed has things under control, don't worry? >> well, no. things could go wrong. i'm counting on the supply side to look better. counting on the supply chains to begin to improve. there's some evidence that they are. i'm hoping and guessing that oil prices and food prices will at least stabilize and preferably begin to moderate. things could go bad. if all those things don't work out and people start losing confidence in the fed, then the fed might have to crack down much harder. so larry summers scenario described earlier, certainly a possibility if inflation persists and people whose confidence in the federal reserve and inflation psychology develops and you get a wage price spiral, all those things we saw on the '70s. that's why it was so painful for

paul roker to end inflation in the early '80s. i'm not being polyya naanna her not necessarily a catastrophic situation here because again, if we get some help on the supply side, we have underlined pretty strong economy with people who the labor market is just roaring right now. people have good, pretty good savings. all those things suggest that with some luck, and the supply side improves, that the fed can get inflation down without imposing the kind of costs that we saw in the early '80s. >> ben bernanke, always a pleasure. your book is 21st century monetary policy. the federal reserve from the great inflation to covid-19. thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you, fareed. next on "gps," president biden was in los angeles this week meeting on the western hemisphere leaders. the big story emerging from the americas is a huge swing to the

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this week's western hemisphere summit in los angeles perhaps should have been called the summit of some of the americas. mexico's president skipped the meeting because the u.s. didn't invite leaders from nicaragua, venezuela or cuba. he was sworn in four years ago as mexico's first leftist president in almost three quarters of a century. he's also a populist and he's indicative of a leftist populist wave that seems to be riding through the region. let me bring in shannon o'neill at the council on foreign relations. describe the wave because it's

happening in chile, it's happening in mexico, it seems to be happening in columbia. and then of course, there's brazil, the largest country in latin america. why is it happening in all of these places at the same time? >> you know, as i look at these elections and the changes in power that we're seeing and who's coming in, i would describe it more as an anti-incumbent wave than necessarily a leftist wave. and what we are seeing all over latin america is voters getting out and voting for the non-establishment, voting for the outsider, the pandemic hit this region harder than any other region in the world in terms of fatalities and in terms of the cost to the economies, to jobs, so people live in a precarious situation. they have looked for politicians, for candidates that have told them they're going to provide something different, they're going to get away from the old system that is seen as corrupt, that hasn't fixed a lot of latin america's problems, so they turn to these outsiders, these populists.

>> when i look at a place like ch chile, regarded as a poster child of latin america, people describe it because of its fast growth rates, they would say ch whichchile is an east asian in america. now a left wing government and in fact, they're rewriting the constitution and all kinds of plans that seem very much a kind of left-wing constitution with a lot of progressive ideals, written right into the constitution. how big of a shift is it in chile? >> chile, i think, really is a bellwether here on what might happen in latin america. there's a hopeful side to that, but a really cautionary tale. so the new president of chile in his 30s, a millennial and he is from the progressive left. he believes in broad social rights, he believes in

environmental actions. he also believes in democracy and working with democratic checks and balances in the congress and like. he is working with the constituent assembly forming the new constitution and they are more to the left. in fact, all of the members are not traditional members of parties. so what we will see over the next couple of months because they'll vote on the constitution in a referendum come the fall is whether or not chileans go for the constitution. right now, it's a big question. >> what about brazil? there, you have a situation where it seemed like there was a kind of trump-like populous. bolsonaro. many was trump-like, cultural issues and a lot of sense of resentment against the elite but now he's very unpopular and what's happened is you have a real old fashioned left wing populist, lthe former president who seems to be roaring ahead in the polls. is that a story of how in latin

america, these cultural issues don't have as much traction and old fashioned economic issues still do have a lot of traction? >> i think that's right and also, very telling of this anti-incumbent wave. you're seeing voters turn to anybody but bolsonaro, the current president. you have this anti-incumbent. strangely, the anti-incumbent who spent the whole life and has been president of brazil before in the form of lula. so i think it's less about the policies laid out in many elections, very few policies actually being put on the table. it's more about someone who's coming in and promising to change things. >> that's why when you look at, when you go to mexico, there's just so much resentment of him among the kind of business community and even in kind of the mainstream center, i would say, but you point out that in his own way, he's very trump-like, explain what you

mean. >> there's a similar appeal in the sense that he's very socially conservative. this is not a president who supports gay rights or abortion. he's made an enemy out of the women's movement, the feminist movement. this is a president who is anti-environment issue and this is also a president in mexico who has little time for democratic niceties. he doesn't care about democratic checks and balances about transparency, accountability. he frequently attacks the press and columnists and journalists much the way trump does, so he has a lot of similarities in governing style. and in many ways, substance as well. >> bottom line, very different latin america for the united states and the world to deal with, much less reform minded or democratic or the international economy? >> i think as we look around the world generally, many countries around the world are much less open to the international economy, including the united states. and so here, latin america is no

different. i think as we start seeing industrial policy arise all over the world, we'll start seeing that in many of these nations led by some of these leaders. you know, that said, this is a region that generally has remained open to trade or have been open to ties to the united states. latin america basically lost out in the globalization of the last 30 years. it did not hook into global supply chains, at least not in the value-added part. they sold raw materials and finished goods but didn't get in the manufacturing so many asian economies or eastern european economies got into. for better or worse, as the united states doubles down on supply chain resilience and reshoring and near shoring, this is an opening for latin america. >> always good to talk to you. thank you. >> my pleasure. next on "gps," david gergen has worked for four different presidents. how does he grade this one? i ask him when we come back.

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or live chat at calhope.org today. david gergen knows leadership. he's been an adviser to no fewer than four sitting presidents. he's also the founding director of the center for public leadership at the harvard kennedy school. now he's written a book about all that he's learned over the years. it's called hearts touched with fire. how great leaders are made.

david gergen, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. it's a pleasure to be here. >> you've written a book about leadership. let's talk about the leader of the united states. >> yes. >> joe biden. >> how do you think he's doing? >> not as well as he should be. he's -- from my perspective, early on i thought he was going to be a very consequential leader because i did think that the empathy he had, the understanding he had, and the inner strength that comes from dealing with the setbacks and the moments he has experienced in life. i thought they would steal him for the presidency, harden him up. you know, he's done some things right. his heart is in the right place, but it's increasingly hard to tell what the goals are here. i think they need to whittle this down to two or three major goals and keep hitting that, get them accomplished both in foreign and domestic policy. >> this is the puzzle about biden. many of his policies are popular, but he himself has stunningly low approval ratings. do you understand that? >> i don't fully understand it.

i do think that the messaging has not been his strength, and going for the people, he often has something to say, but he puts it at 4:00 in the afternoon. if you really have something important to talk to the american people about, do it in prime time. we can handle 15 minutes, 20 minutes. and the leader, the role is to be a teacher. that is the important part of the -- fdr used to argue moral leadership is about the president making choices and trying to bring people along on difficult issues. there hasn't been a lot of that. i continue to think highly of him as an individual, but i would also suggest, i worry about the idea of having a biden versus trump in 2024 when both men are in their 80s. we've never been there before. i don't think that's healthy. the presidency is too complicated a place, and it requires fine judgment. you only get the hard calls.

you get -- the easy ones are decided somewhere else down the road. >> you have a really wonderful thought here in the book called "leadership starts from within". >> yes. explain what that means. >> i worked for nixon. he was the best strategist, as i say, i've ever seen. but he has demons inside him. he had not learned to control them. eventually they did him in. that happens to a lot of leaders j especially when they get on top, they think the rules don't apply to me. i'm special and i can get away with it. and what that leads to, usually, is some sort of disaster. and so i do believe that you have to learn how to understand yourself and control yourself before you can exercise leadership and provide service to others. i think it's really -- your journey starts with you. you got to get yourself anchored and know your values and your true north. and then in a complicated world,

they can serve you well when you're being buffetted in fife or six different directions? >> where do you find leadership that you admire in the world today? >> well, the one we've been watching is zelenskyy. and you know, but you have to ask the question, where are america's zelenskyys? where are our heros? where are the people we can point to and tell our kids, this is a role model for you. societies need that. and i think we've gotten so much into the habit of when people get up, we want to tear them down. you know, when collin powell was going to run for president, the first story that popped up, where did he go wrong in vietnam? he had done so many things and it was discouraging to watch that. why do we have this need to make sure nobody stays on top very long? i'm not sure -- it's something that's not healthy in this society. we need to -- again, i think new generations will help to change that. >> do you think we are sort of living in a time when it's

difficult to imagine that kind of heroic level of leadership? >> yes. >> social media all that? >> yes. in fairness, how you get things done today is different. it's about -- we used to talk about the great man on the white horse. now what we look for is constructive collaboration teams. the picture you remember of jack kennedy that stands out is him alone in the oval office hunched over a globe in the dust, and he has the weight of the world on his shoulders. versus today when barack obama is down there in the situation room and they're chasing oh psalm ma. the picture is like seven or eight or ten people around him, his team. and increasingly, leadership comes from teams. >> finally, you say maintain a celestial spark. >> yes. that was george washington. he had a copy book about how to live a good life, and he took it very seriously, but the last item on it was remember the

celestial spark in your life. and that goes to the core values about hearts touched with fire. it comes from when oliver holmes junior who was wounded in the civil war, left for dead on the battle field but gave a speech 20 years later when he talked about how important the civil war had been for his generation. and he said you have to live in the passions of your time. if you don't do that, you're less than a man. he talked about in our generation, we were blessed -- he was talking about people killed on the battlefield. we were blessed to have hearts touched with fire. it was meaningful for us. we lived in the passions of our time. and i think we need to be teaching our young folks that. >> david greggen, great teacher. >> thank you, sir. it's good to be with you. >> thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week.

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thank you for joining me on this sunday. i am amber walker in for fredricka whitfield. we begin with the potential major breakthrough on new legislation. just moments ago senate negotiators announcing they struck a tentative agreement on new gun control laws. today the bipartisan group of senators announcing several new measures aimed at addressing gun violence. at this point, the deal is just in principle and not yet written, but critically it does have the support of te