>> this is gps. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. coming to you live from new york. today on the program, what would it take for ukraine to win this war? i will put that question to to americans top former military officials. general david petronius.

also, did the commander-in- chief do on saudi arabia? do grass gas prices trump human rights? the federal reserve act boldly to try to get information under control. will it work? the first, here's my take. claire mack in 1942, tried to ready the british people for a long contact. he said this is not the end. it is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. when we think of it in those terms, what phase are we witnessing in the war in ukraine? we are like me in the middle. explains gideon rose. the other of an excellent book. how wars end.

he points out that every war begins like a chess game with a dramatic attack and the defense. if those opening do not produce a decisive victory, the war enters a middle phase. he told me during the middle phase, neither side is interested in negotiating because each side is trying to win outright. thus, have a stronger position from which to negotiate. this is when emotions run high. making it hard to compromise. finally, at some point, the combatant enter the final phase to one of two paths. as happened in 1918 in 1944. or an exhausted stalemate emerges as in korea and mid- 1951. roh said at that point, the parties enter the endgame and they start jockeying over the final settlement.

in this middle phase, the west must help ukraine strengthen its position. and while there are real limits to how much the ukrainians can absorb, washington must read double their efforts. they need to help ukraine break the russian blockade. people have focused on the collapse of the russian economy. which will probably shrink by 11% this year. ukraine's economy is likely to contract by a staggering 45% and 2022. unless the country can export its grain out of its black seaports, it could feet years to come. most likely, this middle phase of the war will last for a while. neither russian or ukraine has the capacity to win decisively. and neither is likely to resend easily. this favors russia. it has taken control of much of the done bass.

the russian government has actually profited during this war. bloomberg projects oil and gas revenues for this year will be about 285 million dollars compared with 236 billion last year. meanwhile, masco canal throat ukraine's ability to export. the longer-term, one has to hope that the sanctions will hit russia harder as the work goes on. at the same time, ukraine has massive western experience. even though we are not the final phase yet, it would be smart for ukraine to start king about the endgame now. that way can develop a coherent position. align it strategy around it and gain international support. suggesting that he not seek to go beyond the pre-every 24th binds on the battlefield.

at this point, it seems highly unlikely that ukraine would even be able to regain all that territory by force. it should keep trying. it does seem wise to make those february 24th lines the goal. which is in, in other words, then he can try to get back territory lost before in 2014 through negotiations. and president zelensky has several times suggested something similar. the goal of return to the preinvasion alliance this year would also garner the more international support. in the final phase of the york of the western united states in particular become the pivotal players. right now, russia is battling ukraine directly. the real struggle will be between russia and the west. what will russia give to give a relaxation of sanctions? so

far, washington has punted on this. explaining this to their canyons to decide what they want. washington will not negotiate over their heads. that is the right message of public support. ukraine and its western partners need to privately formulate a set of common war goals. gaining international support. using all the leverage they have to succeed. the goal may full control of at least as much territory as i had before february 24th and with some security commitments from the west. the alternative to a negotiated settlement of some sort would be an unending war in ukraine. which would further devastate the country and its people more than 5 million have already fled. and the resulting disruptions to energy supplies, food, and the economy would spiral everywhere and political turmoil would intensify across the globe.

shortly it is worth searching for and endgame that avoids this bleak future. go to cnn.com for a link to my washington post column this year. let's get started. vladimir putin speaking at a conference on friday that russia would meet all of its objectives and what he called russia spell it's ukraine. this morning, nato secretary and uk prime minister warned that this war may try on for a long time. i want to dig into what stool to come. two of america's most distinguished military leaders. he is now vice chair of global affairs at the carlyle group. we also the new book. to risk it all. general david petronius was

commander and commander of allied forces in both iraq and afghanistan. he also served as cia director. he is now chair. jim, let me start with you. do you agree we are in this middle phase of the war and what is its nature? who is going to break out? >> we are in a middle phase. it's a good way to describe it. i think it will depend on the support from the west. most crucially. by the way, how does this come out? i want to start with three simple words. i don't know. war is the most unpredictable of human activities. what really is happening here in this middle phase is you have two burn rates going on, if you will. lata made pollutants. the equipment destroyed. the impact on his home front.

the impact of sanctions. that's burning along. over on the ukrainian side, it's the patients and the support of the west. if we do the right thing in terms of additional military support, keeping the sanctions on, keeping the diplomatic pressure, i think the sketch math that you laid out of pushing back to those preinvasion, current invasions, lines is a pretty good place to start thinking about when those two burn rates will bring the two actors to the cable to negotiate. >> dave, this is a -- the russian strategy after plan a failed, plan b is a pretty brutal strategy. is use a lot of artillery. essentially, destroy these towns and cities. and then walk into the ruins and claim conquests. it does feel like it's working in the sense that very slowly they are gaining ground in

parts of the don bass. explain to me how you see the battle right now? >> well, this is a grinding, bloody, costly war right now. as you point out, it is just artillery, rockets, bombs, missiles. destroying the defenses. especially, if they are in a tilt up area as is the case. the current focus of their were machine. they do, essentially, walk in and take over the rubble after they have depopulated it. both people and offenders. the question is really whether they can sustain this? have they put so much into this one area that they can't do much elsewhere. that would enable the ukrainians who are absorbing this enormous quantity of weapons and ammunition. other matcriel.

building units that can counter that i could not counter offenses from the southwest towards the city. pushing south from the second largest city. the weeks that lie ahead, we will see which side can generalize forces the fastest. whether rusher can replace the personal weapon systems and ammunition that they are losing. the same on the ukrainian side. i should just know for some suspected here. the russians are losing more in a single day, every single day on average, that we lost in all of u.s. coalition forces in the worst month in the surge in iraq. the ukrainian casualties are very high as well. >> dave, can i just ask you to expand on this in the sense that who has the possibility in the stalemate to break out? who would you put your money on in the sense that can the

ukrainians actually recapture some of those cities like harris on? or will russians field expand out when you look at this balance of forces? >> i put my money on the ukrainians. i think they have tens or thousands if not over 100,000s of potential soldiers, if you will. they have recruited are in the process of training. they are bringing in a norm is quantities of weapons from the u.s. and also countries. 126 155 millimeters. these are henry artillery pieces. these are staggering quantities. yes, there should be more. i think we will. we should provide the predator drones as quickly as we can. get all of this in there.

i think they have the possibility of doing this. having absorbed so much of what the russians have thrown up them in several. still, have not yielding there. the russians are impaling themselves on that location. consuming enormous quantities of again, men and matcriel. when that's done, they are going to have to hunker down and it will be the turn of the ukrainians who are already pushing in the southwest trying to liberate the city. one of the first cities taken by the russians when they put north. >> stay with us. when we come back, i'm going to ask, what possibilities there are to make it possible for the ukrainians to start moving their grain and other goods out of adesso. i'm going to ask him to explain it when we come back.

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we are back talking about the war in ukraine with two of the smartest military leaders i know. jim, as you know the crystal issue is can they get their goods into the black sea and through that to the world? right now, the russians control the black sea. odessa is impossible to use because ukrainians have minded. the russians are blockading it. what is the way out? you and i have talk about this. you have some really interesting proposals. i want to simply agree with david petronius. my money is on the ukrainians as well. for another fact are.

the burn rate of vladimir putin. the other reason is motivation. if you are on the front lines of the ukrainian war and you are ukrainian, you look over your shoulder and you see your spouse. your parents. your elders. your civilization. your language. all of that gives great motivators to these troops. it's not just an economic lifeline for the ukraine. this has global impact. if we can't get that out, we're looking at revocable food security issues. notably in north africa in the middle east. are you not the most stable regions in the world. we're looking at effects that are truly terrible. what we do? we have to get the grain out. we begin by taking a page from history. look at the persian gulf. the arabian gulf. the iranians will trying to

block. we come in the united states, re-flagged those tankers. we could do something similar here. escorted them with u.s. navy warships. we have to clear the mayans. we have the capability to do that. many of the mines are ukrainian anyway. this would be international waters and ukrainian waters. i think it is risky but unlikely putin would take a shot at a u.s. navy warship escorting grain, humanitarian, through humanitarian corridor. it would be a quick's catch of it. a lot of risk. a lot of planning would have to go into it. we need to do something to get the grain out. not just for ukraine, but for food globally. >> dave, you are also talking to something that was work bringing up. what happens in the area of russia control.

is it possible for the ukrainians to mountain certain seed because if they can mount an effective insurgency, that could bog the russians down and many serious ways. >> is a wonderful point, fareed. let me just agree with my old shipmate, jim. the determination. the heart of ukrainian forces is extraordinary. has been all along. that's what's going to go on in the areas that the russians have taken control of where they're still ukrainians citizens. those citizens hate the russians at this point time. no one has done more than vladimir putin. they are very, very good at all kinds of resourceful activities behind lines. yorty see this in this area around press on. they are carrying out guerrilla populations. we are still early very on.

there's no real organization of that behind the lines to speak of. this prospects of that for the russians have to be ready daunting i would think. because that could really in hinge what they are trying to do behind lines. even as vladimir putin would really like to absorb these areas. they say that they all wanted desperately be part of the russian federation. he then graciously brings them in his new public in the federation in some fashion. that is another aspect of this war that i think we will see increasingly. literally in the weeks and months that lie ahead that has not been a feature of the war so far. >> jim, finally, we have a little bit of time. the terrific new book out that actually dave petraeus blurbs at the back. i want to ask you about the guy we are all interested in. his risk. vladimir putin.

went for this all out strategy in ukraine. what you think explains that? >> massive miscalculations and a leader who is isolated himself. dave and i both know leadership pretty well. we both know the last thing you want to do as a leader is cut yourself off from input from your juniors, your intelligence officers, your generals who could come to you and tell you honestly what's going wrong. if you cut yourself off and in about vladimir putin thinking about that gondola like table with a cluster of his acolytes at the other end, he is isolated himself and i think that has led to massive miscalculation. look at the other side of the risk equation. zelensky. here's a churchillian figure who is the one over the shoulder.

i salute him. >> i salute both of you. i really think this is such an intelligent conversation. i very much hope that the biden administration is talking to both of you. thanks, both. next, on gps, vladimir putin and joe biden blame each other for inflation and high gas prices. who is to blame? i will ask that question when we come baback. how you collect coins. your money never stops working for you with merrill, a bank of america compmpany.

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the swish as we enter a period of high interest rates around the globe. will it take tame inflation? she has a new book out. it's called homecoming. the path to prosperity in the post-global world. welcome. first, let me ask you, what you think is the crux of the inflation? many, many years people predicted that there would be inflation. most famously after the global financial classes. it will cause inflation. this time around, larry summers said to all of this quantitative easing and have done these covid stimulus packages and to do another one under biden was just going to be too much. it was going to trigger

inflation. he did seem to get the timing right. what do you think is behind this inflation? >> so, i think there are two things happening. the first thing is in the real world. that's covid and the war in ukraine. we started to see throughout the pandemic supply chains raking down. the world becoming much more regional in some ways and local in some ways. that's inflationary. when you add's time and stress to the system, you get pressures. this is taking russian energy out of the market which is a huge deal for energy inflation. it's also taking ukrainian wheat and grain. this is one of the key bread baskets of the world off the global market. directing and in some places with food piracy into places where it not about market forces. you immediately get those things colliding to produce real-world inflation. now, i would go back and say that the second fact there is

not just the quantitative easing we have seen since the financial crisis, which was huge. really unprecedented. i think, by the way, the first couple rounds of that were necessary. you could say that rountree around four were really just adding too much fuel to the fire. this reflects a people point. politicians of both stripes have passed the ball to the feds. even before the financial crisis, you see politicians really encouraging the fed to keep rates low. the fed stretching out the business cycle. central bankers are trying to do what they need to do. keep unemployment low. keep prices stable. the problem is they have limited tools. they can only really inflate assess prices. they can't change the really story on the ground for business. so, in lieu of fiscal policy, you get this financial growth over the last 40 years. asset prices are rising. real incomes are changing.

so, those two things. the real pressures of today, warren pandemic, start to collide with the financial inflation of certainly the last 15 years, if not the last 40. >> i want to pick up for what you were saying at the end there. it seems to be very powerful. the american political system has been so broken, really for decades now, that congress can only never actually do what it's meant to do. which is to spend money during recession to pare back in boom times. instead, congress is deadlocked all of the responsibility for managing the economy goes to the fed. as you say, the fed can only do one thing which is lower interest rate and these crises which do help the economy. people who own assets. exacerbating inequality in creating the sugar high. is there any prospect that the infrastructure bill that biden

is doing just what are we witnessing a bit of return in that? >> i think we are starting to see at the margin some things being done. code was like a scrim that was raised on all these problems in the real economy. one of these is the fact that along with that financial is asian that i talked about, you seen a concentration of power. you have very, very high concentrated global supply trains which is meant to be efficient. as we have seen, they break down. the resiliency is not strong in crisis. that has the administration looking at antitrust issues. food technology. more regionalization of supply chains. and really supporting what company say. putting a new foundry in america to conduct some i can dr. chips. i think that these are sectoral changes. it's going to be slow and steady.

i don't think we're going to see the world going back to mid- 1990s. the world is not flat. it's bumpy. when you bumpier for a while. it will be inflationary. ultimately we are going to come up to a more balanced place for production and consumption are to be more closely hugged in europe and asia. >> i will quickly. finally, for most people, the single business aspect is their house. do you think this collapse is going to be followed by housing market? what's going on there? >> yeah. it's really interesting. certainly low rates. some of that monetary stimulus that you saw following covid help. right? low rate encourage a buying. that's only about one third of what's going on. if you look at mortgage rates, we are not back in 2008. you are not seeing a ton of bad lending going on. the pandemic was an incredible shift in the american housing

market. your good work two or three hours for the way he might've lived in. a lot of people moved to the south and the west. in some ways, that's a real structural shift that still playing out. it might be more like the adoption of the automobile. the post-world war ii period which allowed people to travel in new ways. it created the suburbs. it puts people at california. i think that some of those shifts are going to last for another year or two years. maybe five years. you won't see the collapse in the housing market that you may see an asset markets. except in very, very frothy areas. >> always so smart to talk to you. thank you so much. next, gps, biden goes to saudi arabia. what will he do there?

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>> on wednesday, the district of columbia renamed part of the street and part. murder, u.s. intelligence said, with sanction. biden condemned the journalist. and even refused to speak with nbs on the phone. next month, president biden will meet with them. to find out what's going on let me bring in. there, first, let's just talk about the country that biden is going to visit. everything i have heard tells me that saudi arabia in the last few years has really experienced a kind of revolution. >> i think that's exactly right, fareed. if i were to summarize the

state of saudi arabia today, i would say it's a country that's undergoing one of the most dramatic transformations that we have seen any country go through. it's transforming from a place that was had a social life. the 13th century. joining the modern world. the problem is that that very positive transformation is happening at the hands who is out of central casting. >> one of the reasons this was so hard for biden is that he faced criticism. not just on the murder. also, more generally, is this just a case the economic interests are trumping human rights? how to think about americans

relationship in that context? >> certainly, fareed. a lot of people feel that president biden visiting saudi arabia and seeming to let bite on speak icons he's being allowed to quite literally get away with murder. i think that what president biden is coming around to is the fact that we have interest in this part of the world. the solution to a lot of the problems that we seek to side. the roads run through. they have a stop in riyadh. if you want to combat iranian adventures. if you want to break the impasse. if you want to end the tragic bloodshed. all of these roads have a stop in saudi arabia. you could skip that sop sometimes. you can do it without making life a lot more difficult for yourself. in addition, saudi arabia is

really undergoing this transformation. it's one the we have wanted to see for a lot of time. the fact that saudi arabia is no longer exporting that brand. we found so troublesome is of very positive development. you want to encourage that. i think of this line from an early arab leader. the relationship between me and my people is like a thread. i hold one end. people hold the other. when they tug on the thread, i listened a little bit. when they loosened their. but above all, i don't let the thread break. i think that's a pretty good metaphor. >> we know what biden wants. he wants saudi arabia to pump more gas to get prices down. my question to you is what does

saudi arabia want? presumably, there are some that they need to get from the u.s. >> remember that saudi arabia has been treated by this administration, or they have at least felt like, they are pariah. what they are very concerned with is the fact that the united states seems to be running headlong to try to restart a relationship with iran which they see as the major in their region. they would definitely like the reset to involve the united states being much more committed to limiting ambitions in the region. i think basically they want as much of a reset as the americans do. and to deepen the ties with

that country. >> finally, can the saudis deliver? they are the largest swing producer in the world. >> certainly, president biden has access to much better than i do. there a lot of reasons why oil prices are high right now. the agency says that russian oil production is going to decline by 3 million barrels a day by july. so, every little bit helps. i'm not sure the entirety of the solution problem lies. i'm sure that president biden wants more from this visit to saudi arabia than just more saudi oil production.

there's a lot of issues on which united states need and want saudi arabia corporation. i think president biden will want to come out of this visit was much more than just commitment to pump some more oil. >> pleasure to have you on as always. >> thank you, fareed. >> next on gps. we will look at two nations. diversity might thrive in democracy. now, both are writing down dacian dangerous roads. in real time and thatat's... how w you collect coins. your money never stops wororkig for you with merrill, a bank of america company.

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>> and now, for the last look. the strength and vibrancy's of democracies along the world. there have been too unusual success stories. indian south africa. both have managed diverse. for south africa, the horrible legacy. both countries have managed to do this through the leadership towering founding fathers like nelson mandela. men who inspired admiration not just in their own countries, but all over the world. so, it's in startling and disappointing to see both countries rising degree of. in south africa, political parties have been up to ramp up against

migrants. linking them from everything from the country's whites read unemployment to crime. whether the politicians are igniting these attitudes are reflecting them, is on you. as the economist note, vigilante groups like operation to doula or push back mark on townships. these kinds of marches have led to violent attacks in the past. a migrant was burned alive from the mob when he was unable to produce documents proving his legal status in the country. 120,000 people have been displaced and more than 600 have been killed in violent attacks on migrant since 1994. most have occurred in the past 10 years. nearly half of south africans pulled in 2020 said they found migrants dishonest and violent. another poll from 2021, said 3% said they had committed violence against migrants.

12% said they might do so. even the government, which has avoided scapegoating migrants, appears to be ending to anti- migrant sentiments. in november, decided to end the zimbabwe exemption. the program will expire at the end of the year. and then there is india. the social divide manipulated by document is to. thousands of indians came out in protest last year over derogatory comments made about the prophet, mohammed. muslims have long face vigilante violence from mobs. often provoked by the devices of politicians. organizations have noted in the past.

really do officially is plainly uttered discriminatory remarks. as the, this reports, after an out cry for oil-producing countries, the national spoke person who made her comments in the prime time television debate was suspended from the party. made his comments on social media was expelled from the party. that didn't satisfy many indians who come on the streets amending they be arrested. videos have circulated of violent. some protesters being beaten by police with sticks. most shocking of all, authorities in the state have bulldozed the homes of muslim activists. suspected of participating in the protest. one official tweeted a photo of the demolition which took race on saturday.

every friday is followed by a saturday. it appeared to be avail reference to islam's friday prayers. the government of india is selectively and viciously cracking down on muslims who dare to speak up and peacefully express this event against discrimination. this latest episode is not in admiration. discrimination against religious minorities enabled under two consecutive terms. what we are seeing in both india and south africa is politicians choosing to escape and divide rather than unify. we have seen it elsewhere. it's all the more tragic and to countries that have for so long refuted the idea that democracy is for the rich or that a bleak history cannot be overcome. it's a sad reminder that we are

living in troubled times for democracy. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week and i will see you next week that's decision tech. only from fidelility. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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