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this is "gops." the global public square. welcome to you around the united states and the world. i'm fareed zakaria live from new york. today on the program, what would it take for ukraine to win this war? i'll put that question to two of america's top military officials. general david petraeus and james. do gas prices trump human rights? i'll ask an expert.

and the federal reserve acts boldly to get inflation under control. will it work? i'll ask rana. first, here's my take. in 1942, winston churchill tried to ready the british people for a long conflict. referring to the allied victory in egypt, he said, this is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. when we think of it in those terms, what phase are we witnessing in the war in ukraine? we are likely in the middle, explains gid eon rose, an excellent book "how wars end." he points out that every war begins like a chess game, with a dramatic attack and a defense. if those opening salvos do not have a decisive victory, there's a middle phase to slog it out to

gain advantage on the battlefield. he told me, during the middle phase, neither side is interested in negotiating because each side is trying to win outright in position on the battlefield and thus have a stronger position from which to negotiate. this is the period when emotions run high, making it hard to compromise. finally, at some point, the combatants enter the final phase through one of two paths. either the tide of war turns irreversibly, in one side's favor as happened in 1918 and 1944, or an exhaustive stalemate emerges as in korea in the mid 1951. he said at that point, the parties enter the end game and jockeying over the final settlement. in this middle phase we're in, the west must help ukraine strengthen its position. kyiv needs more weapons and training. there's limits how much the ukrainians wcan absorb,

washington and allies must redouble efforts and help ukraine break the russian blockade around odesa. people focused on the collapse of the russian economy which will probably shrink by 11% this year, but ukraine's economy is likely to contract by a staggering 45% in 2022, unless the country can export its grain out of its black sea ports, it could face economic calamities for years to come. most likely, this middle phase of the war will last for a while. neither russia or ukraine has the capacity to win decisively or surrender easily. in the short-term, this favors russia. it has taken control of much of the donbas and because the west hasn't completely banned russia's energy exports, the russian government has actually profited during this war. bloomberg projects the oil and gas revenues for this year will be about $285 billion compared

with $286 billion billion last year. one has to hope that the sanctions will hit russia harder as the war goes on. ukraine has high massive assistance and morale and a willingness to fight to the end. even though we're not in the final phase yet, it would be smart to think about the end game now. that way it can develop a coherent position, align strategy around it and gain international support for it. henry kissinger was recognized for saying kyiv should not seek to go beyond the pre-february 24th lines on the battlefield. it seems highly unlikely that ukraine would even be able to gain all that territory by force. though it should keep trying. but it does seem wise to make those february 24th lines the

goal, which is, in other words, to reverse russia's territorial gains from this year. then kyiv can try to get back territories lost before in 2014 through negotiations, and president zelenskyy has several times suggested something similar. the goal of returning to the pre-invasion lines of this year would also garner the most international support. in the final phase of the war, the west of the united states in particular become the pivotal players. right now, russia is battling ukraine directly, but if and when the conflict becomes something of a stalemate, the real struggle will be between russia and the west. what will russia give to get a relaxation of sanctions, and what will the west demand to end russia's isolation? so far, washington has punted on this, explaining that it's up to the ukrainians to decide what they want, and that washington will not negotiate over their heads. that is the right message of public support, but ukraine and his western partners need to

privately formulate a set of common war goals, coordinating strategy around them, gaining international support, and using all the leverage they have to succeed. the goal must be an independent ukraine in full control of at least as much territory as it had before february 24th and some security commitments from the west. the alternative to a negotiated settlement of some sort would be an unending war in ukraine, which would further devastate that ukraine and its people more than 5 million of whom have already fled. and the resulting disruptions to energy supplies, food and the economy would spiral everywhere and political turmoil would intensify across the globe. surely, it is worth searching for an end game that avoids this bleak future. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started.

vladimir putin speaking at a conference in st. petersburg on friday vowed that russia would meet all of its objectives in what he called russia's special military operation in ukraine. and then this morning, both nato secretary jens stoltenberg and uk prime minister boris johnson warned that this war may drag on for a long time. i want to dig in to what's in this conflict with two of america's most distinguished military leaders, james was the supreme allied commander at nato and now vice chair of global affairs at the carlyle group and author of a new book "to risk it all." general david petraeus commander of allied forces in both iraq and afghanistan. he also served as cia director. he is now chair of the kkr global institute. jim, let me start with you and

ask you, do you agree we're in this kind of middle phase of the war and what is its nature? who's going to break out? >> we are in a middle phase. it's a good way to describe it, fareed, and i think it will depend on the support from the west, most crucially, and by the way, how does this come out? i want to start with three simple words, i don't know. nobody does. war is the most unpredictable of human activities, but what really is happening here in this middle phase is you've got two burn rates going on, if you will. vladimir putin's burn rate is the killed in action, the equipment destroyed, the impact on his home front, the impact of sanctions. that's burning along and over on the ukrainian side, it's the patience and the support of the west. so fareed, if we do the right thing, it turns up additional military support, keeping the

sanctions on, keeping the diplomatic pressure. i think the sketch map you laid out, pushing back to those pre-invasion, current invasion lines is a pretty good place to start thinking about when those two burn rates will bring the two actors to the table to negotiate. >> dave, this is, the russian strategy after plan "a" failed, plan "b" is a pretty brutal strategy. as far as i can figure it out, it's, use a lot of artillery. essentially destroy these towns and cities and then, you know, walk into the ruins and claim conquest. but it does feel like it's working in the sense that very slowly, they are gaining ground in parts of the donbas. explain to me how you see the battle right now. >> well, this is a grinding bloody, costly war of attrition

right now, and as you point out, it is just artillery, rockets, bombs, missiles destroying the defenses, especially if they're in a built-up area as is the case in donetsk, the current focus of the war machine, and they then do essentially walk in and take over the rubble after they have essentially depopulated it, both people and defenders. the question really is whether they can sustain this. have they put so much into this one area that they can't do much elsewhere and that would enable the ukrainians who are absorbing this enormous quantity of weapons and ammunition and other material, building units that can conduct counteroffenses from the southwest toward the city of kherson and pushing from

kharkiv, the second largest city and which side can generate forces the fastest, whether russia really can replace the personnel weapons systems and ammunition that they're losing in the same on the ukrainian side. and i should just note for some perspective here that the russians are losing more in a single day, every single day on average than we lost all of u.s. coalition forces in the worst month of the surge in iraq, and the ukrainian casualties are very high as well. >> dave, can i just ask you to expand on this in the sense that, who has the possibility in this stalemate to break out? who would you put your money on in the sense that, can the ukrainians actually recapture some of those cities like kherson or will the russians perhaps even be able to expand out of them, when you look at this balance of forces? >> i am putting my money on

ukrainians. i think they have got tens of thousands, if not over 100,000 of potential soldiers, if you will, that they have recruited or in the process of training, they're bringing in enormous quantities of weapons from the u.s. and other nato and western countries, i mean, 126, 155 millimeter. heavy military pieces, and 260,000 rounds of 155 millimeter howitzer ammunition. these are staggering. yes, there should be more, we should get more multiple launch rocket systems, and we will. we should provide the drones as quickly as we can, get all of this in there. i think they have the possibility of doing this, having absorbed so much of what the russians have thrown at them in severodonetsk and still not having yielded there. so the russians are impaling themselves on that location, consuming enormous quantities

of, again, men and material. i think when that's done, they'll have to hunker down and it will be the turn of the ukrainians who are already pushing in the southwest, trying to liberate the city of kherson, which is one of the first cities taken by the russians when they push north out of kracrimean peninsula. >> when we come back, i'll ask james what possibilities there are to make it possible for the ukrainians to move the grain and other goods out of odesa. jim stavridis with a plan for ukraine. i'll ask him to explain when we come back. ls into a mist. air wick essential mist. connect to nature. ♪ making friends again, billy? i like to keep my enemies close. guys, excuse me. i didn't quite get that.

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right now, essentially, the russians control the black sea, but odesa is possible to use because of the ukrainians, with the russians blockading it and prevent russians have attacking. what is the way out? you and i talked about this a lot. you have some really interesting proposals. >> i'll go scene with you in one minute, fareed but first, i want to agree with david petraeus. my opinion on ukrainians besides the heavy material from the burn rate of vladimir putin. but motivation. on the front line of the ukrainian war and you're a ukrainian, you look over your shoulder and you see your spouse, your children, your parents, your elders, your civilization, your language. all of that gives great motivation to these troops. let's go to sea for a minute because it's not just an economic lifeline for ukraine,

this has global impact. if we can't get the grain out, we're looking at remarkable and terrible food scarcity, food security issues. notably in north africa and the middle east. not the most stable regions in the world. if the grain can't get out, we look at knock-on effects that are truly terrible. so what do we do? we have to get the grain out. begin by taking a page from history. look at the persian gulf, the arabian gulf, i should say, where the arabians were trying to bottle up the strait and we flagged the kwaiuwaiti tankers escort them in and out. we have to clear the mines, we have the capability to do that. many of the mines are ukrainian anyway. this would be an international waters and ukrainian waters. i think it is risky but unlikely

putin would take a shot at a u.s. navy warship, escorting grain, humanitarian, through a humanitarian corridor. that will be a quick sketch of it. a lot of risk or planning will have to go into it, but we need to do something to get the grain out. not just for ukraine but food globally. >> dave, talking about something which i think is worth bringing up. we haven't talked a lot about what happens in the areas that russia controls. is it possible for the ukrainians to mount an insurgency because as you well know from afghanistan, if they can mount an effective insurgency, that could bog the russians down in many serious ways. >> it's a wonderful point. the determination and the heart of the ukrainian forces is

extraordinary and has been all along. that will go along in the areas the russians have taken control of where there's still ukrainian citizens. those citizens hate the russians at this point in time. no one has done to spur more ukrainian nationalism than vladimir putin and they are very good at all kinds of resourceful activities behind lines and you already see this, again, in that area around kherson where they start to essentially carry out guerilla operations. the prospect has to be daunting for the russians, i would think because that can really unhinge what they do behind lines as vladimir putin would like to absorb these areas, he'd like to have a referendum and they say they all want to desperately be part of the russian federation and then he graciously brings them in his new republics in the federation in some fashion.

so that is another aspect of this war that i think we'll see increasingly literally in the weeks and months that lie ahead that has not been a feature of the war so far. >> finally, we have a little bit of time, but i've got to ask you, we have a terrific new book out that actually dave petraeus blurbs at the back and it's about risks under pressure. all interested in the risk profile. vladimir putin seemed to be a cautious, calculating incremental guy and then went for this all out strategy in ukraine. what do you think explains that? >> massive miscalculation and a leader who isolated himself. dave and i know leadership pretty well and we both know the last thing you want to do as a leader is cut yourself off from input from your juniors, your intelligence officers, your generals who could come to you

and tell you honestly what's going wrong and if you cut yourself off and think of vladimir putin sitting at that long gondola-like table with a cluster of his accolades at the other end, he's isolated himself and i think that's led to massive miscalculation, and finally, look at the other side of the risk equation here. i salute him. >> i salute both of you. i really think this is such an intelligent conversation. i very much hope that the biden administration was talking to both of you, which i suspect it is. thanks to you both. next on "gps." vladimir putin and joe biden blame each other for inflation and high gas prices. who's really to blame? i'll ask that question when we come back. ♪ i got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid,

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>> on wednesday, the federal reserve raised interest rates by 0.75. and then raised their own rates as we enter a period of high interest rates around the globe, will it help tame inflation? global economist analyst and global business columnist for the financial times. she has a new book coming out soon called "homecoming: the path to prosperity in a postglobal world." rana, welcome. first, let me ask you, what do you think is the crux of the inflation we've got? for many, many years, people predicted that there hawould be inflation, the global financial crisis. don't do quantitative easing anymore. this time around, larry summers said to do all the quantitative easing and to have done these big covid stimulus packages and to do another one under biden was just going to be too much and it was going to trigger

inflation. didn't seem to get the timing right. what do you think is behind this inflation? >> i think there are two things happening. the first thing is in the real world, and that's covid and the war in ukraine. we started to see throughout the pandemic, supply chains breaking down, the world becoming much more regional. local in some ways. that's inflationary. when you add time and stress to the system, inflationary pressures. at the same time, you have the war in ukraine. this is taking russian energy out of the global market which is an immediate huge deal for energy inflation but also taking ukrainian wheat, ukrainian grain. this is one of the key bread baskets of the world off the global market and directing it in some cases with the food piracy into places where it's not about market forces, so you immediately get those things colliding to produce real world inflation. i would go back and say that the

second factor is not just the quantitative easing we've seen since the financial crisis, which was huge. really unprecedented. and i think, by the way, that the first couple of rounds of that were necessary, but that you could say round three, round four were really just adding too much fuel to the fire. but this reflects a deeper point, which is that for decades now, politicians of both stripes have really passed the ball to the feds. so even before the financial crisis, you would see politicians really encouraging the fed to keep rates low, the fed sort of stretching out the business cycle. this is nothing nefarious. central bankers try to do what they need to do which is to create price stability, keep unemployment low, keep prices stable, but the problem is they have limited tools. they can only really inflate asset prices. they can't change the real story on the ground for business, so in lieu of fiscal policy, you get a financialized growth over the last 40 years, a saccharin

growth where asset prices are rising but real incomes aren't changing since the mid 1990s. the real pressures of today, war and pandemic, start to collide with the financialization of certainly, the last 15 years if not the last 40. >> i want to pick up on what you were saying at the end there, because it seems to be very powerful and slightly depressing point that the american political system has been so broken, really, for decades now, that congress can almost never actually do what it's meant to do which is to spend money during a recession to maybe pare back in boon times and then the deadlock, responsibility for managing the economy goes to the fed and you say the fed can only do one thing which is lower interest rates and these prices which does help the economy but disproportionally helps rich people, own assets and creating the sugar high. is there any prospect that the

infrastructure bill that biden is doing, are we witnessing a bit of a turn in that? >> i think we are starting to see at the margins, some things being done. code was a scrim raised on all of these problems in the real economy and one of them is the fact that along with that financialization that i talked about, you've seen a concentration of power, you have very, very highly concentrated global supply chains which are meant to be efficient, but as we've seen, they break down. their resilience is not strong in crisis, so that has the administration, for example, looking at anti-trust issues and y areas like food and technology, and not just seeing in the u.s. but in europe and in asia, more regionalization of supply chains and regional sourcing. so the idea of getting past some funding for a chips bill, you know, and really supporting what companies say like intel are starting to do, put a newfo spd new founder and vectoral changes

but not going back to the mid 1990s. it's flat, bumpy, going to get bumpier for a while. it will be inflationary, but ultimately, i think we'll come out to a more balanced place where consumption and production will be more closely hubbed, not just in the u.s. but in europe and asia. >> quickly, finally, i've got to ask you, for most people, the simple biggest asset is the house. do you think this collapse in the stock market is going to be followed by a collapse in the housing market, what's going on there? >> yes, really interesting. two things happening in the housing market. one real, one financial. certainly low rates, some of that monetary stimulus you saw following covid helped, right, low rates encourage a buy-in. you try to push people into the market but that's a third of what's going on. you look at mortgage rates, we're not back in 2008, you're not seeing a ton of bad lending going on.

the pandemic was an incredible shift in the american housing market. you suddenly could work two or three hours away from the cities that you might have lived in, a lot of people move from expensive coastal cities to the south and to the west and so in some ways, that's a real structural shift that's still playing out. it might be more like the adoption of the automobile in the post-world war ii, created the suburbs, pushed people out to california. i think that some of those shifts are going to last for another year, two years, maybe five years, and so you won't see the sort of collapse in the housing market that you might see in asset markets, except in very, very frothy areas. >> good to talk you, thank you so much. biden goes to saudi arabia, and we're going to ask what he will do there. ♪ it's a lovely day today ♪

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on wednesday, the district of columbia renamed part of the street in front of the embassy of saudi arabia. it's now called jamal khashoggi way, that was sanctioned by crown prince mohamed bin salman. he vowed to make saudi arabia a pariah nation and refused to speak on the phone. next month, president biden will meet as part of what senior administration officials say is a reset in relations, to find out what's behind the about-face, let me bring in a professor at harvard's kennedy school of government. let's just talk about the country that biden is going to visit, because everything i have heard tells me that saudi arabia in the last few years has really experienced a kind of revolution.

>> i think that's exactly right, fareed. i mean, if i were to summarize the state of saudi arabia today, i would say it is a country that's undergoing one of the most dramatic transformations that we've seen any country go through in living memory. it's transforming from a place that was really, at least had its social life in the grip of a kind of 13th century religious reaction to joining the modern world. the problem, of course, is that that very positive transformation is happening at the hands of a leader who is kind of an autocrat. >> one of the reasons this trip was so hard for biden was that he faced criticism, he himself had expressed some of it about the saudi regime. not just on the murder of jamal khashoggi but more generally, the autocracy of mohamed bin salman, the case that economic

interests are trumping human rights? how to think about america's relationship with saudi arabia in that context? >> certainly, fareed, a lot of people feel that what's happening now by president biden visiting saudi arabia and seeming to let by gones be bygones, quite literally get away with murder. i think what president biden is coming around to is the fact that we have a lot of interest in this part of the world, and the solution to a lot of the problems that we seek to solve, the roads run through or at least they have a stop in riyad. if you want to combat iranian ventures in the region or combat the impasse or end the tragic bloodshed in yemen, all of these roads have a stop in saudi arabia. you can potentially skip that stop sometimes but you couldn't do it without making life a lot more difficult for yourself.

in addition, remember, fareed, let's come back to the fact that saudi arabia is really undergoing this transformation. it's a positive transformation. it's one that we've wanted to see in that part of the world for a long time, and it has ripple effects elsewhere in the world. the fact that saudi arabia is no longer, porting that particular brand that we found so troublesome is a very positive development. so you want to encourage that, and when i think of the u.s./saudi relationship, i think of this from an early arab leader that said the relationship between me and my people is like a thread. i hold one end, my people hold the other. when they tug on the thread, i loosen it a little bit. when they loosen their grip on the thread, i tighten but above all, i don't let the thread break and i think that's a pretty good metaphor for how the relationship with saudi arabia should be conducted. >> we know what biden wants from mbs, he wants saudi arabia to

pump more gas, more oil to get prices down. my question is, what does saudi arabia want? because presumably, there is something that the saudis feel they need to get from the u.s. >> remember that saudi arabia has been treated by this administration or at least they've felt treated by this administration as if they are what president biden labeled them on the rye, pariah. the united states seems to be running headlong into trying to restart a relationship with iran, which the saudis see as the major miscreant in their region. so i think the saudis would definitely like the reset to involve the united states being much more committed to limiting iranian ambitions in the region, but i think basically the saudis want to, as much of a reset with this relationship as the americans do, and they want the u.s. to talk about saudi arabia

as an ally and to deepen the ties with that country. >> and finally, can the saudis deliver on what biden wants? can they pump out what's called the largest producer in the world and opportunity to production? >> he has better access to economic advisers than i do but the fact of the matter is there are a lot of reasons why oil prices are high right now. one of which is the tightening supply as a result of the war in ukraine but let's remember, the international agency said russian oil production will decline by 3 million barrels a day by july. the excess capacity is a third of that, that helps a bit but i'm not sure the entirety of the solution to the high oil price problem lies in riyad. and i'm sure that president biden wants more from this visit to saudi arabia than just more saudi oil production.

there's a lot of issues which the united states needs and wants saudi arabian cooperation. i think president biden will want to come out of this, visit with much more than just commitment to pump some more oil. >> masoud, pleasure to have you on as always. >> thank you, fareed. next on "gps," two nations, at one time, how they were symbols of how diversity might thrive in democracy. now both riding down dangerous roads of ill liberalism. wet dishes? spots? cloudy glasses? when detergent alone isn't enough... ...add finish jet dry 3 in 1. to dry, prevent spots, and protect glasses against cloudiness. the dishes aren't done without finish jet dry 3 in 1. man: you're a printer, you're supposed to print!

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when the strengthings and vibrancies of democracies around the world, among the most promising trends in recent decades have been two unusual success stories. india and south africa. both have managed to forge diverse democracies despite huge obstacles. for india it's widespread poverty. for south africa, apartheid. both countries have managed to do this through the leadership of towering founding fathers like nelson mandela and others. men who inspired admiration all over the world. so it's been startling and disappointing to see in both countries a rising degree of ill liberalism. in south africa, political parties have ramped up rhetoric against migrants, blaming them for everything from the country's widespread unemployment to crime. whether the politicians are igniting the attitudes or reflecting them is unclear, but xenophobia is clearly on the

rise. as the economist notes, vigilante groups march on townships demonstrating against illegal immigration. these kinds of marches have led to violent attacks in the past. a zimbabwe migrant was burned alive by a mob when he wasn't able to produce documents to prove his legal status in the country. more than 120,000 people have been displaced and more than 60 0 people killed since 1994 and most in the past ten years. nearly half of south africans polled in 2020 said they found migrants dishonest and violent. another poll from 2021 found that 3% said they had committed violence against migrants and astounding 12 % said they might do so. even the government -- which has so far avoided scapegoating migrants appears nonetheless to be bending to anti-migrant

sentiment through policy. in november it decided to end the zimbabwe exemption permit which allowed almost 20 0,000 migrants to settle in south africa. the program will expire at the end of the year. and then there is india where the social divide manipulated by opportunistic -- centers on religion. thousands of indians came out in protest over derogatory comments made about the prophet muhammad by two senior officials. muslims have long faced vigilante violence from mobs often provoked by the divisive comments of politicians as organizations like human rights watch have noted in the past. rarely two officials so plainly utter discriminatory remarks. as the economist reports, after an outcry from rich oil producing gulf countries, the

national spokesperson who made her comments in a prime time television debate was suspended from the party. another spokesperson who made his comments on social media was expelled from the party. but that didn't satisfy many indians who came out on the streets demanding he be arrested. videos have circulated on social media of violent unrest including some of protesters being beaten by police with sticks. and most shocking, authorities in the state in one area have bulldozed the homes of muslim activists suspected of participating in the protests. one official in the state tweeted a photo of a demolition last saturday which took place after friday protests and wrote, unruly elements remember, every friday is followed by a saturday. it appeared to be a reference to islam's friday prayers. amnesty international said in a statement released tuesday that

the government of india is selectively and viciously cracking down on muslims who dare to speak up and peacefully express their disend against discrimination. this latest episode is sadly not an aberration according to human rights watch discrimination against religious minorities has been codified and violent hindu nationalism enables under two consecutive terms of the modi regime. what we're seeing is politicians choosing to scapegoat and divide rather than unify. we've seen that elsewhere, but it's all the more tragic in two countries that have for so long refuted the idea that democracy is for the rich or that a bleak history cannot be overcome. it's a sad reminder that we are living in troubled times for democracy. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. ly see you next week. what do you want to leave behind?

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