this is "gps" welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live. today on the program, nancy pelosi travels to taiwan and sparks a crisis between the united states and china. first, we'll examine beijing's military response. are all of the sorties and missile firings practice for an actual invasion?

and then the many repercussions for china-u.s. relations. can the two powers recover from this new low? is this the start of a new low? also -- >> justice has been delivered. and this terrorist leader is no more. >> america kills the leader of al qaeda once again. so just what is the state of terrorism today? how big is the threat to the west? but first, here's my take. the world's two most powerful nations find themselves in a hair raising crisis that could spill into military conflict, and the strangest aspect of all this is how predictable it was. taiwan's status has long been known as the most sensitive issue for both the united states and china. one that has been carefully managed for five decades. and nancy pelosi had signaled her desire to go to taiwan

months ago. but on the american side, a series of errors, many tactical and driven by domestic politics, have resulted in a dangerous reality. there is no serious working relationship between the 21st century's two most powerful actors. from the start, the biden administration adopted a policy toward china of open hostility and criticism. in the very first face-to-face meeting with senior officials from both side, secretary of state antony blinken decided to deliver a harang, to which his chinese counterpart defiantly responded. that blinken's remarks were delivered in public in front of television cameras, a format that would only harden beijing's position, not change it. as president obama's top adviser noted, despite having criticized

president trump's foreign policy bitterly, when it comes to the greatest foreign policy challenge facing the united states, how to deal with the rise of china, they have continued and mimicked trump's approach. he added, this has prompted glee among departed trump officials who declare themselves as innovators and the biden administration as dutiful implementers. another argues that the communication channels for managing tensions have collapsed. but while the biden administration's approach has been tactically flawed and can be adjusted, beijing's errors are much more serious and strategic. over the past decade, under president xi jinping, china has changed its taiwan policy, with potentially catastrophic consequences. modern china's leader outlined a

solution to the problem of taiwan in 1979, a solution known as one country, two systems. saying taiwan could maintain its own political system, laws, even own armed forces. taiwan rejected the offer, but he urged strategic patience and decided to demonstrate the vitality of this policy by applying it to hong kong, once the british handed over the city state to beijing in 1997. spelling out these promises in an agreement with great britain and in hong kong's basic law, it's de facto constitution. for several years, beijing observed one country, two systems in hong kong, and held out the prospect of the same for taiwan. trade between beijing and taipei increased dramatically. in 2015, president xi met with taiwan's then president and they spoke of enhancing ties.

something that's inconceivable today. the basic strategy towards taiwan was as long as china remained open, dynamic, and accommodating, time was on its side. taiwan would come to realize that there were many benefits and few costs to being formally attached to the mainland. but over the past ten years, president xi's policies have been to make china more closed, less dynamic and significantly less accommodating. nowhere has the latter policy been more clear than in hong kong, where beijing has reneged on nearly all agreements they have made. the results are power play to see in taiwan. in the 1990s, few taiwanese advocated for independence and many believed reunification with china was inevitable. today, according to the election studies center, support for

independence is much stronger, nearly doubling since 1997. the year of the hong kong handover. most taiwanese still hope for a continuation of the status quo. people's sense of taiwanese identity, as distinct from chinese identity, is much stronger and closely wrapped up with being a democracy. as xi bullies taiwan more militarily and economically, these strengths, especially among younger people, grow in size and intensity. china claims its goal is peaceful reunification with taiwan. if that's really the case, beijing should reverse course and return to the former policies, announce that hong kong would be allowed all the freedoms it was promised, end sanctions on taiwan and stop threatening the island with military maneuvers. it is xi's policies making the taiwanese people reject any prospect of cooperation with the

mainland, let alone eventual reunification. but that reversal is not going to happen and leads to the central dilemma. on the issue of taiwan, beijing recognizes time is not on its side. every year, the island becomes more likely to break free. and this has created a strategic challenge for beijing. one that could turn into a catastrophe for the world. go to cnn.com for a link to my column this week. let's get started. battleships, fighter jets, missiles and more. china has sent them all towards taiwan in recent days, in response to nancy pelosi's visit to the island. the people's liberation army had promised targeted military operations on multiple sides of

taiwan, and it delivered. earlier today, taiwan's defense ministry said some of china's activities was a simulated attack against the island. to understand more, let me bring in a fellow at stanford's freeman's institute and a scholar at aei and officer in the air force reserve, but she's speaking today in her civilian capacity. welcome, ariana. first, give us a sense, how would you characterize these live-fire exercises? how should we think of them? >> well, of course these live-fire exercises are a show of force. china telling us they're unhappy with speaker pelosi's visit. but much more importantly, they're a combat rehearsal. the chinese military hasn't fought a war since 1979. xi jinping has been clear they need more realistic exercises. so what's significant is the unprecedented scale. it's not only the live fire

tests, the missile tests, but we also had 100 aircraft operating, ten destroyers and support vessels, nuclear submarines, all these different forces operating together in close proximity towards taiwan is sophisticated and complicated and meant to help them get to the point where they are confident that they can go an operation successfully against the island. >> and from what you can tell, does it appear to have been as effective as beijing might have hoped? >> as an outside observer, it looks like everything went according to plan. the missile tests, the missiles landed where beijing planned for them to land. in terms of the aircraft, they had a hundred different aircraft, fighters, bombers, early warning, air refueling tankers and they successfully conducted the operations they wanted to, which ranged in everything from joint

reconnaissance to air superiority operations, refueling, and ground assaults. so from the outside, it looks like they successfully conducted the exercises that they planned to. though of course, they were uncontested in these exercises. so it doesn't mean they could do the exact same thing if war actually occurred. >> would you compare these exercises for us to the last time china had a big military response, which was the taiwan strait's crisis in 1996? since then, china has become much richer and spent a lot on this military. >> right. we have seen military spending go up by over 740%. in the meantime, the result has been really significant. so 1995, 1996, china conducted four rounds of live fire tests of missile tests. every time they did it, they

never fired more than six missiles, and they mainly went to the north and south of taiwan, never crossing over like they did this time. further more, that was the extent of the exercise, the end of it. the united states sent in carrier strike groups in the vicinity of taiwan to warn china off. that seemed to work. we look at that as a lesson that the united states deterred china. but china learned they never wanted that to happen again, so they have built up, not only one of the most sophisticated and advanced militaries, but also one that can attack and keep out the united states. so now not only do you have these missile tests, but you have air operations i referred to, as well as naval operations that were this the vicinity of taiwan. air bases, naval bases and ports. so for all these different components to operate together is truly impressive. my view is, we'll see additional rounds of military exercises in the future. there's already been an announcement the chinese plan of

conducting one. so this is an unprecedented scale and complexity and designed to show that china can take taiwan whenever it feels ready to do so. >> how dangerous do you think these are? the chinese did encroach on the sort of economic zone. it's not really international waters, but it's an area sensitive area, let's say. is there a danger that it could trigger a response from taiwan, from japan, from the united states? >> so i think these exercises do increase the likelihood of war, but not the traditional path. a lot of commentators are concerned that because of heightened military activities, you might see an accident or incident that could spiral accidently to war. when china makes a move on taiwan, if they have to do it successfully, it has to be quick

and fast. so they don't want to do it right now when the united states has increased its focus and operations in the region. however, the more they get to do this level of exercise, the more confident tayhey're going to become confident in their capabilities. the only thing keeping them from making a move against taiwan, they're not 100% sure that operation would go well. so the more confident they are, the more likely we are going to see beijing initiate force against the island. >> oriana, thank you for your insights. next, i will be back with a terrific panel. is this crisis over or did we just see the prelude to a war? ever wonder what everyone's doing on theirir phones? they're banking, with bank of america.

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a top official of the chinese embassy in washington had this to say friday. taiwan is one of the few issues that might take china and the u.s. into conflict or even a war. the american secretary of state had a very different take, speaking friday in cambodia. he criticized china's military response calling it an overreaction and saying that the u.s. does not seek and will not promote a crisis. so can beijing and washington recover from this any time soon? joining me now are susan shirk and richard haass. susan is chair of the 21st century china center.

her new book is called "overreach, how china derailed its peaceful rise." and richard haass worked in george w. bush's state department. susan, let me begin with you, was this avoidable? >> well, uh, of course it was avoidable. once nancy pelosi decided to go to taiwan, the chinese side had a choice of how to respond. they got an explanation from the united states about the division of authority between the white house and congress. but china chose to react very strongly, and one of the main motivations was xi jinping's domestic political situation. he's in the middle of a campaign

for a third term that he hopes to receive at the party congress in the fall. and he was struggling quite a bit, because of policy misjudgments that he himself had made over the past year or two. so the economy was slowing down. there's no way they're going to meet their growth target for 2022. and there was a lot of grumbling about the draconian covid-19 policy, about the alignment with russia on the ukraine war, and the crackdown on the private sector which resulted in the loss of a lot of jobs. so we've got youth unemployment, economic problems. that's not the position that xi jinping hoped to be in two months before the party congress. so he took the opportunity to

distract people away from domestic problems with these very exciting and dramatic war games, which are being shown on china's central television every night. he took the opportunity to strengthen the ties with the pla because as oriana said, these exercises show off the modernization, the reform program that he's devoted a tremendous amount of time and energy to. while in office. and he himself, as commander in chief, is probably wearing his uniform, directing these exercises. and he may even have undercut the grumbling among other politicians who may have been maneuvering to force some more power sharing on him during his

third term. so domestically, this has the pelosi visit gave a very good opportunity to xi jinping. and actually, fareed, it resembles a lot what happened ten years ago, on the eve of his ascendence to power, when the japanese purchased the senkaku islands to keep them out of the hands of the nationalist tokyo mayor. and china reacted quite strongly, not so much on the military side, more with gray zone, fishing boats and other operations. but it was a great distraction at a time when they were making a play for power and the chinese leadership -- >> let me interrupt you there and get to richard.

let me try and get richard in on this, because i feel like you described very well the domestic pressures that led xi to do what he did. it feels like the u.s. also there are political pressures here. i saw some reporting that said nancy pelosi had indicated that had biden personally asked her not to go, she might have not gone. but would have publicly made that clear. richard, how do you see the administration's handling of china, and is it also constrained by domestic politics? >> the short answer is yes. i don't disagree with anything susan said, fareed. this is a crisis of choice. this is a crisis not about nancy pelosi, it's about the chinese using her visit as a pretext to put in motion a lot of preplanned exercises and economic sanctions, almost to create a new baseline, vis-a-vie

timeline heading forward. i think one of the reasons they were willing to do this is they saw no upside, no potential in u.s.-chinese relations. people always call for bipartisanship in this country. we have a kind of competitive bipartisanship now when it comes to china policy. republicans under mike pompeo, he called for regime change, to get rid of the communist party. he's now calling for the independence of taiwan. nancy pelosi is talking about human rights and so forth. the president wasn't willing to tell the speaker of the house not to go, that it would be bad. in large part he was worried it would be criticized as appeasement of an aggressive, repressive china. and what's missing, this is the most important relationship of the 21st century. and what we don't have is a serious, strategic dialogue. we no longer have the

military-to-military conversations in case there is an accident in the sea or air. this ought to worry people. even at the height of the cold war, the united states and the soviet union had a more developed, more structured relationship than the united states and china have now. that has got to be fixed. that is in the interest of literally everyone. >> stay with us. when we come back, i'm going to ask richard and susan about an article richard wrote in which he said it's time to end the ambiguity and declare that the united states will come to taiwan's defense in the event of a chinese attack. is that a good idea? when we come back. (other money manager) different how? you sell higigh commission investment products, right? (fisher investments) nope. fisher avoids them. (other m money manager) well, you must earn commissions on trades. (fisher ininvestments) never at fisher investments. (other money m manager) ok, then you probably sneak in some hidden and layered fees.

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we are back here on "gps" with susan and richard. richard, you argued in a recent essay, we should make it clear, we will defend taiwan if china attacks. that would end five decades of strategic ambiguity. a lot of people wonder, is that wise, given they are a long way away from the united states, they're very close to china. china will be able to militarily overwhelm them pretty quickly in all likelihood. so two things are very expensive in international relations. threats when they fail, and promises when they succeed. is there a danger here this is a threat that will fail?

>> they're in danger -- the stakes are enormous. it's in the just a democratic country of 23 million people. it's not just the most advanced semiconductor industry in the world. but all the countries in the region expect us to be there. at stake is the entire alliance and stability system that has worked for 75 years. so we shouldn't kid ourselves. this is not just about taiwan, this is about the entire endo-pacific, asian-pacific, australia, japan interests there. we have options. if we strengthen our military presence, if we set up various economic sanctions that could be triggered, but also, fareed, i'm not arguing for a change in policy. let's get that clear. we ought to continue to reassure china we don't support taiwan's independence. it's worked well for 50 years. what we have to do is adjust how we implement that policy.

china has raised the military threat to taiwan. we would be derelict if we didn't raise our capacity to deal with it. that's a question -- [ inaudible ] -- certainly for how we implement our strategy. >> so yousan, you disagree. why? >> well, i disagree because i think the best way to keep the peace in the taiwan strait is to maintain the continuity of this policy that we have had for so long. it's very hard to explain it to people. it sounds really silly. strategic ambiguity, what does that mean? what it really means is that all three parties have an interest in preserving the peace, and we certainly don't want taiwan to

provoke a war, and that was the aim of strategic ambiguity. but now we need, i would agree, kind of greater charity about the ambiguity. and i think that because what we are committed to is the status quo. i think tony blinken has done a good job in what he said recently during this crisis. to say that we oppose efforts to change the status quo, and we're committed to the status quo. and the other thing is that what we really need to do to help strengthen -- prevent war in the taiwan strait is for taiwan to undertake new efforts to defend itself pmilitarily, that are no these big, symbolic purchases,

but things that will harden taiwan as a target for potential chinese aggression. things that are -- i forget what they're calling it now, the strategy, but it is to strengthen taiwan's capability to defend itself. >> richard, what about the danger that this kind of competitive nationalism that we are seeing, both this china and the united states, gets out of hand, do you -- talk a little bit about the dangers of that. >> again, it's the reason you need two kinds of dialogue with china and the united states. [ audio issues ] -- you need a very tactical

conversation about the rules of the road dealing with taiwan. we have had a real-world wakeup call how fraught this is with dangerous possibility. and we have to establish some ground rules that's a mixture of reassurance, what is not going to change in terms of our policy. but also a question of messaging. china has to understand that any effort to do this forcibly, core savely, would not exceed, that the cost would exceed any benefits. i think we have to introduce greater clarity to china about what we're prepared to do and not going to do in terms of changing policy. they can make their points to us, be you this is too important to simply let it drip. i think that's the whole lesson of the last couple of days. this has now been teed up to a point where we have to take it as the most serious threat to regionally, if not global order. we have a major crisis in ukraine. we could face one with iran.

we do not need a third simultaneous crisis in the world. >> richard haass, susan shirk, pleasure to have you guys on. next on "gps," i will talk about the demise of ayman al zawahiri. what does the al qaeda's death mean for the future of terrorism?

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security analyst peter bergen, author of "the rise and fall of osama bin laden." peter, welcome. let me first ask you, you have written very interesting piece saying that al zawahiri was not a particularly good head of al qaeda. he was not inspirational, in many ways he was not intelligent, he did not revive the group as many thought. so what does his death do to a group that was already, in many ways, in trouble? >> fareed, his successor may prove to be more effective, which is low bar because al zawahiri hadn't been able to revive the fortunes of al qaeda. there is a potential successor, part of al qaeda from the beginning. he's a former egyptian special forces officer, well regarded within al qaeda. he's been living for years in iran, he may be back in afghanistan and he is the likely successor. but he inherits a group that

hasn't been able to carry out a successful attack in the west since the london bombnings in 2005. but the fact that al zawahiri was found in kabul in a safe house, was known to be live thing by leaders of the taliban, speaks for itself. so they will have considerable freedom of movement in afghanistan. they can regroup, it may take them years. what it means for the west, you know, it's still some time off before they can carry out a serious attack outside the region. >> now, bin laden had been the kind of innovator in saying, let's attack the west. a lot of these terrorist groups from the '70s and al zawahiri, the one he was involved in was islamicy hard in egypt, were trying to overturn secular rulers because they were

islamic. bin laden says let's go for the head of the snake, the united states, which gives security guarantees to all these regimes, the egyptian and saudi regime. where does that debate in al qaeda stand? it's obviously much easier to do local terrorism. does al qaeda and other groups still want to do global terrorism? >> yeah, they may want to, but do they have the capacity in any meaningful way? the victory of the taliban in afghanistan speaks for itself. you know, now they run an entire country, and so -- and if you look at what isis did, they control a territory the size of great britain. so people say attacking the united states may be desirable, but maybe we can do more locally in syria or iraq or afghanistan. pick your country with a weak or

failing government in the muslim world. >> and when you look at the taliban's decision to let al zawahiri in, do you think that they were, you know, exceeding to a request from a kind of old confederate? they must have realized that this would almost certainly make the united states do something -- i mean, help us understand that decision. >> it was a bad decision. but the acting minister of the interior, the equivalent of running the fbi or the department of homeland security, is described by the united nations as a member of the leadership council of al qaeda. so the fact that they brought al zawahiri in, yes, as you say, an old confederate, and they've known each other for decades and they're friends and share a

world view, and unfortunately, there was a lot of wishful thinking about the taliban as the peace agreement with the taliban was negotiated. i didn't share that wishful thinking. they just, you know, it's an idealogical group, and part of that is bringing al qaeda back into the fold and excluding women from the workplace and girls from education. >> you described the extent of i. isis, which people don't recognize, in terms of territory and population. but how lethal a threat does it pose to the west and to other kind of advanced industrial societies, or is it that they're just trying to create another version of the taliban in northern syria? >> certainly in 2014, they controlled a lot of territory. now they're sort of reduced in size. the u.n. estimates about 6,000 to 10,000 isis fighters who have

this big problem of 60,000 isis related women and children in refugee camps and another 10,000 isis fighters in prison. the turks keep threatening to invade that part of northeastern syria, and the u.s. government has repeatedly said they're very opposed to that, because this would distract from the kurds keeping these camps open. so isis hasn't gone away. what threat they pose to the west is limited either in terms of inspiration or in terms of people going to get training, or in terms of their ability to carry out an attack in the west. that said, it can change. if the turks invade northeast syria and these prisons and camps are disbursed, they can regenerate the caliphate that was destroyed. >> peter bergen, always a pleasure to get your insights.

this is one of the few people who met and interviewed osama bin laden. this is a long story which probably won't go away and we will be back to you. >> thank you, sir. we will be back. change the plan or stay the course? that's why northern trust is here. with specialized expertise... a history of success through everery economic climate... and proven strategies rooted in data and analytics. giving you more control. clarity. and confidence. for now and whatever's next northern trust wealth management.

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and now for the last look. america is facing a series of economic difficulties and good l solutions are hard to come by. the chief challenge, how to dampen inflation without triggering a recession. there's one aspect of this problem to which there is a simple solution -- the problem is labor shortages. in industry after industry, the united states has too few workers. nearly two openings for every job seeker in america. that meant this summer camp owner had to take fewer kids

this summer. >> it's so hard to find good people to work. >> this farmer had to look at expensive automation to harvest crops. >> we're in panic mode. >> this cafe owner had to raise wages to compete for workers. >> that means less coffee is going up, the price is going up. >> too few workers and higher prices is true across large parts of the economy. the reasons for the labor smasmart age -- shortage are varied, one is the great resignation. lack of child care is one. covid has killed 250,000 worker age people and keeps people away from work. but one of the biggest underappreciated factors, as the economist notes, is low immigration. even before covid, the trump administration was making it much harder in a variety of ways

for people to get a visa. all kinds of visas. when the pandemic hit, he largely shut the country's borders. immigration collapsed. under joe biden, immigration has bounced back. but the lost trump years left a big hole. the university of california estimates that as of may, the u.s. was short 1.6 million foreign born residents compared to before trump's policies. the european union has a labor shortage, too. but in a rare, bright spot of the ukraine war, europe is seeing an influx of refugee workers. imagine how the u.s. could ease its worker shortage if the u.s. took in more refugees and economic migrants. that would go a long way to fighting inflation. goldman sachs said in april to slow wage growth and get

inflation back near the 2% target, the gap between available jobs and workers would need to shrink by 2.5 million. the fed's fotools like raising interest rates can do that, but mainly by slowing business expansion and reduce the number of new jobs. the gap has began to shrink, but if we want to avoid a bad recession, we should be trying to close the gap the opposite way, increasing the labor force, the number of workers, not killing job creation and slowing businesses. today, we have a clear case where there just aren't enough american workers. almost two openings for every job seeker. immigrants won't be taking jobs away, they will be doing work that is desperately needed, essential work like harvesting crops, child care, and food services, work in factories and driving trucks to alleviate

supply shortages. if we were really smart, we could offer temporary work visas for certain industries and expand long-term immigration, as well. >> the jobs report. >> friday's strong jobs report doesn't change the trends we have seen. businesses are slowing down, facing a lack of workers. >> i don't know where the workers are. >> inflation means real wages are declining. if inflation stays too hot, the fed will have to push the economy into a recession in order to cool things down. then people will really lose their jobs. bringing in some foreign workers will ease labor shortages, slow down inflation, and help big a bigger, stronger economy for all. after all, america is the country built on this theory, on and by immigration. we have to emgrace this quintessentially american solution to our current problem. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. ly see you next week.

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i'm brian stelter, live in new york. this is "reliable sources," where we examen the story behind the story and figure out what's reliable. alex jones on trial, compelled to pay for his lies after facing these sandy hook family members. but will the jury's decision to anything to curtail conspiracy culture? plus, an abortion rights vote in kansas that stunned the pundit class. what did they miss? and later, two new hires at "the view" and what it means about the media's treatment of