orchestra.fareed zakaria gps st. ♪ this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'll be back later with the rest of the show, but first let me bring in jim sciutto, who is here to tackle the latest news. jim. >> thanks so much. hello to all our viewers. today on the show, ukraine is fighting back and hard. how far could ukrainian counteroffensive go? also, china's leadership is faced with crisis after crisis from a troubled economy to a devastating heatwave, don't forget about taiwan. is president xi in trouble?fare

with a country that some think is what america needs to do, that is write a new constitution. and he will speak to one of the top scientists responsible for the webb telescope and those awesome images it has captured. these videos show explosions that have happened in the last two weeks at russian military facilities in crimea, which has been occupied by russian forces since 2014. one attack at an air base destroyed at least seven russian warplanes. ukraine has claimed responsibility for that attack and two others according to an internal document obtained by cnn. is this evidence that kyiv is launching a counteroffensive against russia and could it gain back territory illegally overtaken by moscow? joining me now is retired u.s.

army general mark hurtling. and general grks tohave good to have you on. >> great to be with you. >> let's talk about the attacks inside crimea, this territory has been controlled by russia for some eight years now. does ukraine's ability to strike behind russian lines in crimea around very sensitive military facilities there show its strength, how much strength and how much of a setback is there for russia? >> last couple weeks have been fascinating. whenever a force changes from defensive to offensive operations, which is what is happening with ukraine, it changes the dynamics of the battlefield. by going on the offensive, which they have done, ukraine has regained the initiative and can strike at the time and place of their choosing instead of just waiting for the russians to attack. russia now realizes they have to defend in more places, which further drains their forces from the fight in both the east and in other areas in the south. and that kind of action puts the enemy on its back foot and makes

it very tentative to take part in more operations in the future. and finally, jim, what i'd say is as you well know, you've been with soldiers a lot, you know that war is mostly an issue of morale and will. the russian army has already been assessed to have terrible morale for a variety of reasons. their leaders have been killed, poor support for the troops, confusion as to the mission. so these attacks will further cause morale problems for the russian army while improving the ukrainian morale because they see the effects of their attacks. >> president zelenskyy has been telegraphing a later scale counteroffensive particularly in the south. and i wonder are these attacks -- by the way some gains for instance around kherson, are they disruptive or could they lead to ukraine actually taking back and controlling territory that had been taken by russia? >> can i say all the above?

>> sure. >> in using precise military doctrinal language, a lot of people talk about a large counteroffensive or large scale counteroffensive by ukrainian forces. i don't see that happening anytime soon because i don't think that the ukrainian army from what i used to see over there dated for sure, but i still don't think that they have the capability to conduct a large scale counteroffensive. but they will continue to strike, continue to attrit as they have done and potentially do a lot of smaller scale counterattacks which is going to drive the russians crazy. in kherson province and other places in the south. and like i said, it will just cause more confusion on the part of the russian side. >> the pentagon announced this week a new yet another really nearly billion dollar military assistance package for ukraine, including ammunition for the high mobility artillery systems

known as himars. i've spoken to you and other, and they describe it as a potential game changer for the fight in the east. the accuracy, the mobility, the ability to strike behind russian lines, ammo depots, et cetera. i wonder in your view how big of a game changer, and could it be a parallel to the effect we saw for instance of those javelin anti-tank missiles that they had in the early stages of the invasion? >> yeah, himars were to phase two as the javelins were to phase one. but i'd say if we can expand what was in that $750 million package that was just delivered, the most recent tranche, it is certainly more himars rocket pods that tells me that the ukrainians are having a great effect with their targeting methods, with their intelligence capability and striking targets. and everyone is focused on himars. that is all you hear on the internet. but most importantly, as we

start transitioning into this phase three, which has ukraine conducting counterattacks and counter offenses, small scale counter offenses, some of the other things in that package were more drones for intelligence collection. more mraps and humvee vehicles which are critical to move around. and we've talked about javelins before. in this package, there were 1500 toe missile systems. i don't expect your viewers to understand what that is, but that is a larger anti-tank system than the javelins. it is for defensive operations and it is different. you also have that and a lot of mine clearing stuff. so you are seeing the movement of ukrainian forces as they attack the defending russian forces in some of these southern places. >> and that weapons package as you know better than me gives an indication of what the u.s. believes and ukrainians believe the next phase of the war will be like. i wonder how concerned you are

to see this open warfare shelling in and around what is europe's nuclear power plant at zaporizhzhia. we saw similar circumstances around chernobyl earlier in the war. are you concerned that this is deliberate by russia, right, that they might calculate it is in their interests to cause something as severe as a nuclear accident here? >> yeah, absolutely. i mean, there is a lot of experts who say the zaporizhzhia power plant is certainly dissimilar to what we saw at chernobyl, but it is still a nuclear power plant. it still has six reactors with a lot of nuclear rods. it still has the capability if not taken care of to emanate a cloud of into nuclear radiation can travel with the wind. certainly not the kind of explosion that was made famous at chernobyl, but still the effects of nuclear contamination. so, yeah, this is just another

indication as we've talked so many times about russia's war crimes. they are using a governmental public facility to protect their forces, you know, set it up for potentially a false flag operation, but still this is extremely dangerous and it is not a military target. this is a civilian target. this is something that could hurt a large swathe of both ukrainian and potentially either european or russian citizens depending on which way the wind blows. >> exactly. certainly a danger to russia as well. thank you so much for joining us. >> thanks, jim. we have two more urgent stories coming up this hour. will we have a revived iran nuclear deal? plus china's problems are compounding. we'll be back in just a moment. verizon business internet, o with fast, reliable solutions, nationwide. find the perfect solution for your business.

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china is in the midst of just a scorching heatwave that is putting real pressure on the country's electrical grid. this comes as china central back is cutting interest rates to try to stimulate the economy which is suffering from the zero covid policy. and on the geopolitical front, beijing is still smarting from nancy pelosi's visit to taiwan. and china's economic growth rate more broadly has fallen back to earth. what do all the setbacks mean for china and the rest of the world, is the era of china's seemingly unending growth over? i want to bring in beijing bureau chief for the economist magazine and he is joining me from hong kong.

thanks so much for joining me this morning. >> hello. >> david, i wonder if you could give us a big picture appraisal of where these headwinds stand with china because these are not headlines folks outside are used to hearing in terms of neglect it i have economic circumstances. you've got the zero covid policy, it has caused a lot of shu shutdowns, you have the heatwave, and is this an economic crisis for china? >> it is an economic -- it is not a crisis yet, but it is a real economic slowdown, real economic pain in the chinese economy. and that has political consequences. china's communist party is obsessed with control he best of times. but this is an extremely sensitive year for the top leader xi jinping. toward the end of the year, we'll have one of the most important meetings the communist party has had in a generation. he's expencted to ask for a thid term as leader.

to do that, needs everything to be ticking along and humming nicely and china's economic growth is something that we've taken for granted but also the communist party and chinese people have taken for granted for a long time. >> is this a short term bump in the road for china's economic growth or is it part of a longer term slowdown? we were used to for a number of years double digit growth. more recently high single digit growth although there has always been real doubt about the ver crassity of the growth numbers. but from your perspective, is this part of a longer term slowdown for china economically? >> i think you have to look at the different headwinds and separate them out. so it is true that china is having power cuts because of this heatwave. a lot of countries are having a hot year and it causes problems in china like every else, but it is not really a signature policy of xi jinping that has caused had. but if you look being at the property slowdown that is a

direct result of xi jinping's own decision that the market was overheating, there was too much borrowing by big property companies and it was time to rein that in. and so now people refusing to pay their mortgages because the flat they promised to buy won'ten built and property companies are starting to wobble and teeter and zero covid as you mentioned is also really slamming consumer confidence. it is really kind of gripping china very tightly at the moment. and you are seeing a lot of people not taking that holiday, not taking that business trip because the risks of getting stuck are really high. >> china as you know is extremely sensitive to any signs of domestic unrest or opposition to the government. i certainly saw that during my time there and i know you've seen it during your time there. people refusing to pay mortgages, how does china respond to that? >> china is always about control and looking at the numbers. as long as most people look happy, they are willing to impose pain on a small number.

so even though zero covid is a numbers game, as long as the number of people beingsmall lisl that they are living in a country doing better than america, they have just some concern for that. the people refusing to pair their mortgages, that is relatively limited. you can be sure that the secret police is watching them like a hawk trying to stop it from becoming a nationwide movement. but we've not seen the top central government intervening. we've had a massive stimulus, it is top down, provincial governments to get back to pouring concrete, building new airlines, new airports. the traditional tools that the communist party reaches for. >> and you mentioned how xi jinping is about to tear until rule book by breaking the long standing krmpt c pcccp rule of terms for the president, adding another one, which really is

anointing himself president for life, do these headwinds threaten that plan, is it possible those plans get derailed or is it full steam ahead? >> so in a normal country with elections, he would certainly be facing a rough ride. if he was about to run for office, then there are definitely headwinds, people who would be criticizing him. but one of the signatures of his first ten years in office is the systemic ruthless elimination of any rivals, any rival factions. and so all the signs at the moment is if there were real rivals to xi jinping, you're right, this would be a moment for them to try to criticize some of his big, bold, risky decisions and the big ask of another five years potentially ruling for life as you say. the fact that we're not hearing those voices, we're not seeing retired leaders or red princlings giving speeches,

we're really not seeing that and it could be that xi jinping is right in his bet that he is pulling off a real concentration of power of the sorts that we have not seen since chairman ma. >> there is some concern that given domestic troubles and challenges, that xi might try to distrabct by creating a worsenig crisis. we saw the military exercises that china launched in response to nancy pelosi's visit there. is there a concern in the region of if -- not a full invasion of taiwan, but some sort of wag the dog scenario to distranistract troubles at home? >> you are right as a general principle that there is a fear that they will start a war when leaders get into trouble. vladimir putin was suffering

domestically and so a useful way of getting the russian public to rally around the flag. china is a very different beast from russia though. although xi jinping and vladimir putin share a lot of things about their view of america, the west, the world, china is bound into the global economy into the supply chains that run right into america and the rest of the world in a way that russia just is not. and so i think a reason to be calm about a war anytime soon like this year, an adventure if you like, is that it would actually just compound those economic problems at precisely the moment that xi jinping needs things to be calm. and so although we've seen tremendous amount of saber rattling, i don't think that that would solve his economic problems, it would make them worse. >> david, thank you so much for joi joining us this morning. coming up next on gps, is the nuclear deal with iran on the brink of revival? we'll try to get to the bottom of that key question in a moment. help make trading feel effortless

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and get healthier with golo. let's talk about iran and the possibility that it will agree once again along with european and international powers to a deal that would redistrict its nuclear program. a top diplomat said a revived deal could be reached, quote, in the coming days. a senior state department official told me this morning that we've closed some gaps but some still remain. remember, the original deal between iran, the u.s., uk, france, russia, china and germany was signed back in 2015. three years later however, then president trump announced that he was withdrawing from the deal unilaterally which then led to its unraveling. since then iran has vastly

increased its reserves of highly enriched uranium. what would a return to the deal mean for washington, tehran and the rest of the world and can the west work with russia and china in the midst of growing tensions over ukraine and taiwan? joining me now to discuss, senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace and a senior advicer to the middle east. good to have you both. dina, what is your assessment this deal resurrected, what are the chances? >> it is hard to say. let's just say that we are closer than we were a few weeks ago, but we're not quite there yet. there is some real outstanding issues that remain. things like sanctions relief or some of the guarantees that the

iranian side have been asking for. and those still need to be negotiated. iranians came back with a substantive offer which the u.s. side is now considering. so we'll just have to see what the u.s. comes back with. >> and in effect this is in exchange for xeconomic relief fr a country under severe economic pressure to reduce its stockpiles and lengthen in twen effect the breakout time. do you see those issues being overcome and if so would that be remarkable in your view? >> jim, i think it is clear that the biden administration desperately wants to revive this deal and iran really can't reverse its economic decline if it doesn't revive this deal. but i think that we should make clear that the biden administration's goal vis-a-vis iran wasn't to revert back to

status quo. their goal was to get a longer and stronger deal. so i think that if indeed we are able to revive this deal, that is not the finish line. that is not when we give up. i think the administration is then going to have to make an extra push to not just try to get that longer and stronger deal, but also a strategy to counter iran's regional aggression. >> that of course as you mentioned, the upsetting of this agreement had been one of the key criticisms of not just republicans but democrats in this country and others. dina, in the meantime iran has barreled closer to a breakout point. vastly increasing its reserves of highly enriched uranium. from purely that measure, would the resurrection of a deal, iran re-entering the deal, improve regional security? >> well, it would certainly address the main concern of the international community right now, which is iran's nuclear

program. without the nuclear deal, iran's program expands uncontrolled, unconstrained, and that is a real problem. to the region, the problem is slightly different. the nuclear problem is an issue, but also iran's activities in the region are complicated, nefarious, problematic. and those do need to be addressed. but we're talking about just the nuclear deal. and we need to really understand the nonproliferation value of this nuclear deal, that it will constrain iran's nuclear program so that then we can talk about everything else. >> in terms of nonproliferation, kareem, would it also effectively or at least for a time, if not address, push off the desires of other nations in the region such as saudi arabia made nervous by iran's potential -- well, its nuclear program, potentially having a weapon of pursuing their own nuclear weapon? >> jim, putting a lid on iran's

nuclear program is a good thing. but again, it is not a comprehensive strategy. and i think with regards to regional countries, they would say that they are not worried -- saudi arabia, uae, are not worried about getting denuclearizationed by iran. they aare worried about the precision use of missiles, rockets and drones. so if indeed this deal is revived, i don't think that it necessarily is going to trigger neighboring countries, u.s. partners in the region, to average up their nuclear program. but i do think that the concern that is a legitimate concern of regional countries is that we're essentially unleashing iran economically to double and triple down on all the proxies and rockets, missiles and drones which they are using on a daily basis. >> speaking of roxies, we've seen the extent of iran's aggression far outside the

region. this is a week whereas stound i astounding comments seeming to explain the stabbing of salman rushdie, more revelations about the plot of assassination of john bolton. would it be wise for the biden administration and its western allies and the u.s.'s western allies to make an agreement with an iran carrying out activities such as that? >> i mean, you don't make an agreement with countries that you trust and get along with. you make agreements with problematic actors in order to address the problematic behavior. so i think, yes, now is the right time to deal with iran. we have to be realistic. iran like i said is a problematic actor. but by getting back into the nuclear deal, we're addressing one problematic die mention of its behavior. that doesn't mean it prevents us from addressing the others, but it means that the nuclear issue would be taken off the table so

we can focus our attention on all the other things. >> two of the players russia and china signed on in 2015 and if resurrected they would be players once again. i'm told that secretary of state antony blinken discussed the iran nuclear deal with the chinese foreign minister during a recent visit to bali. can the u.s., its european allies, i don't want to say stand with, but do business with, right, particularly russia in light of its invasion of ukraine but also china given tensions over taiwan? is that an example of real politic? >> jim, everybody though china and russia are commonly lumped together, i think that they have very different interests. china's interests are pretty straightforward. they want to ensure the free flow of energy from the middle east. they don't want, you know, any type of conflict that would disrupt it. so removing the sanctions

against iran benefits china very much. i would argue russia has very different interests. russia is isolated as it has been in its modern history, iran competes with russia in global oil and gas markets. so i would argue an isolated iran which is a thorn in the side of the united states can actually be useful for russia, so i don't think that it necessarily -- it is in russia's interests to see an isolated iran. but as you said, by virtue of the fact that there is no direct dialogue between the united states and iran, the united states has had to communicate through iran through russia, through china, through our european allies. >> remarkable relationships no question. kareem, dina, thank you for joining me. coming up next on gps, fareed will be back with a conversation about constitutions. many have said that america's founding document need as refresh or perhaps a rethink.

well, what does it take to get political consensus on a new constitution? fareed will bring you one country's fascinating story. spend category, like select travel. great, that was my third red-eye this month. is my eye twitching? you don't have to choose a spending category or remember to opt in. sir? what happened? your cash back automatically adjusts for you. wonderful. earn 5% cash back that automatically adjusts to your top eligible spend category up to $500 spent each billing cycle with the citi custom cash℠ card. ♪

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to come to the table and do more incredible things. ♪ ♪ 234 years ago this summer, the constitution of the united states of america was ratified. there has been a lot of talk in recent years about whether it needs another refresh or a wholesale rethinking. well, the nation of chile will soon reach the final phase of a push to change its own governing document. so september 4, citizens will vote on whether to accept a radically different constitution from the one that currently governs them. it has been a fascinating process and i wanted to learn about it from ch chile's dean o public policy at the london school of economics. welcome.

for those of us who don't know the background, what is going on, what was the old constitution and why is there a move to create a new one? >> chile has had the same constitution since 1980 and it was put together during dictatorial times. so call it a sin of origin. it has been amended over 70 times, so it is not the same document as was put together back then, but still when which i will residents were asked to do you want to change the constitution, almost 80% said yes, we want a new constitution. the question today is what kind of a constitution and is the new one good enough. >> you're right in saying that they overwhelmingly wanted a new one, but what somehow ended up being proposed seems quite a

radical document. and ushers in a whole different set of issues. is that causing some rethinking? first describe the document and whether it is causing some rethinking. >> well, let me start by the end of what you said, which is absolutely right. yes, it is causing a lot of rethinking. in fact a number of figures on the center of politics in chile, even center left and left have come out against the document. and there are plenty of bits of information that suggest that popular opinion is actually quite skeptical as well. what happened, first of all, it is a very long document. nearly 400 articles, it would be among the longest in the world. secondly the process of writing it did not leave a lot of people happy because the 155 members of the convention fought a lot, engaged in all kinds of identity politics of the kind that turns

middle class, middle age and middle of the road voters against the proposed text. and last but not least, a constitution is really a set of rules for governing politics and the exercise of power. and the system that is being proposed is not workable, would not give chile a better kind of politics. it would be prone to deadlock, it would be prone to confrontation and i think increasingly voters are coming to terms with that reality. >> do you think that this constitution has come about as part of the kind of wave of anti-establishment, left wing populism that is sweeping latin america if you look at from the election in mexico to elections that have taken plus in colombia recently, to can chile of course and what appears to be the impending election in brazil, much more left wing populist

version? is this all part of a larger trend? >> i think it is part of a trend. of course there are elements that are unique chile, but i would not limit it to latin america. i think the skepticism of established parties, the tendency to go populist left or right goes far beyond latin america. you see it in the u.s., in uk, in turkey, india, hungary, poland a urge about of other countries around the world. and the genesis of the currenta countries around the world. and the genesis of the current text being proposed is very much, you know, linked to identity politics and populism. >> chile has enjoyed the fastest economic growth and strongest economic performance of any latin american country for three decades now.

and people sometimes choke chile is an east asian country that just happened to be in latin america. do you think that robust economic performance would be imperiled if the new kons taugs c constitution came into being? >> the answer is yes but although i think the political and economic performance has been declining in the last decade. really fast growth happened in the '90s and in the beginning of this century. growth has been stagnating you might say. and part of it has to do with the decline of politics. even under current arrangement, you typically have a president who is elected for a fixed term of office like the american president. but it is very hard to put together congressional majorities as a result it is very hard to put together coalitions to reform whatever needs reforming. again, it is all about the rules of engagement, rules of the

game, fiscal rules of the game, political rules of the game. the ones in this text would tend to exacerbate that problem and would probably mean that chile would grow even less than it has been growing in the last few years. >> a pleasure to have you on. thank you. >> my pleasure, thank you. next on gps, you know those incredible pictures of space you've been seeing a lot of lately? behind those pictures is an incredible story as well. when we come back. and only 24-hour steroid free spray. while other allergy sprays take hours astepro starts working in 30 minutes. so you can... astepro and go. discover theratears®. like no other dry-eye drop in the world. with the 5 vital electrolytes found in natural tears, theratears® is one-of-a-kind hydration that feels like silk. theratears®. a drop like no other™.

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between two initiatives on sports betting. prop 27 generates hundreds of millions every year to permanently fund getting people off the streets a prop 26? not a dime to solve homelessness prop 27 has strong protections to prevent minors from betting. prop 26? no protections for minors.

prop 27 helps every tribe, including disadvantaged tribes. prop 26? nothing for disadvantaged tribes vote yes on 27. space as you've never seen it before. after a quarter century in development on earth, the world's most powerful space telescope is now this orbit in space about a million miles away. and this summer, it released its stunning first images. the james webb space telescope

is an extraordinary scientific achievement built to see parts of space and time previously unseen. like this image of a galaxy cluster as it appeared 4.6 billion years ago. and the expectation is that the webb will be able to look even further back in time to the early universe and the formation of its first stars and galaxies. mike manziel is the lead at nasa. and let me first ask you your reaction to these images. what are you seeing and what does it make you -- is this better than you expected, pretty of the same? what is your reaction? >> well, the reaction of myself and all my colleagues was of shear joyful amazement. you know, the images that you see are great, but the amount of detail that is in these images

astounded us. >> are there any images in particular that you want to direct our attention to? >> yeah. the galaxy cluster. bits 4 billion light years away. and that image, the thing that made us almost giddy when we saw it. it contains galaxies in it that are farther away from hubble image. at first reaction you can think, well, it looks similar to hubble. the hubble picture, the hubble took 10 to 15 days to get that image. we did it in 12 hours. so this was a taste of things to come. when we saw that image, we all kind of, we were literally, as i said, giddy. we designed this telescope to see the very first galaxies that turned on in the universe. when we saw it in 12 hours, we

knew whatever is out there, we'll see it. >> when i think of it as a layman, what strikes me as extraordinary about this telescope is on the one side, it faces the sun and has this -- the heat that is facing is extraordinary. on the other side, it's facing cold temperatures like you can't imagine. describe how that works. >> the sun shield blanks out the sun and lets it cool down to almost the temperature of cold space. the temperature of the telescope. the 3 metric tons has to get to about 55 degrees kelvin, about minus 361 degrees fahrenheit. we can do that because we're looking at infrared wave lengths. anything that has a temperature like our bodies, ambient temperature, would glow. so we don't want it glowing brighter than the images that it is looking at. so that big tennis size sun

shield we have keeps it in the shade and allows it to cool. if that sun shield were sun tan lotion, you would say it had an spf of about 10 million. >> when you had about what this will help us learn, how should we think about what a telescope like this teaches us? again, i hear it as a layman. i think, are we going to learn a lot more about the big bang? because we're going back so far in time? >> well, it could potentially tell us some of the conditions in the early universe that could make some inferences as to the big bang. it will certainly tell us what the early universe was like. how that early universe fostered galaxy formation. the other big question that webb is fully capable of answering is looking for planets around other stars. exo planets that may have signsr

necessary for life. so when you think about it, it is possibly addressing two of the most fundamental questions in astronomy. how did it all begin? and are we alone? >> so when i think of it up there, a million miles away. i have two questions. one, what happens if something goes wrong? and what happens if you run out of gas? or fuel or energy or whatever it is that is powering it? >> well, let me answer the last question because that's easiest. we have designed it to have enough propellant for ten years. as it is, because it was put on such a perfect trajectory, because we made some of our early maneuvers right on time, we have over 20 years of propellant. so propellant is not our problem there. when it come to what could go

wrong, anything could go wrong in space. we design procedures for that. most of us believed, most of us were fairly certain that the biggest risk that's we faced were in the early days of the deploying. the unfolding. that went so smoothly and so great that most of us feel, most of our major risks are behind us. we have a fully operational world asset for astronomy. >> when i look at something like this, it does seem to me, you and your colleagues play a very special role. there is so much bad news out there. so much that people worry about. here you come along with this astonishing technological achievement. it is a sign of what the american government, when it puts it's mind to it, can do really well but also a sign of real international cooperation. this is not just an american venture. >> absolutely. this is an international collaboration involving the canadian, european space

agencies, various university, and as you say, it does show when we can work collegially when we can work together. over the course of 25 years, myself, a lot of my foreign partners, we became like family. we ended up squabbling. i was always squabbling with someone who i knew was as dedicated to the success of this mission as i was. and we got through it all together. and well, you can see the results. >> i have to tell you. this is the kind of thing that leaves me amazed and in awe, but also very grateful. grateful for all the work you've done. so thank you. it's been a pleasure having you on the show. >> thank you, sir. >> thanks to all of you for watching this program. i will see you next week. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com

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