gas up, presidents down. i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia. this week, opec plus the consortium of 24 countries including russia and saudi arabia, announced it was cutting oil production 2 million barrels a day or 2% of the world supply, thus sending the midterm football on unexpected bounce. did opec plus do so hoping to politically harm joe biden and the democrats? i think so. of course, a large part of the

motivation probably money. price per barrel which was over $120 in march by late september dipped below 80. and it also seems designed to help russia which has been hurt by sanctions since its invasion of ukraine and heavily depends on its oil profits. surely, opec plus knew the move would also impact america's election which is just a month away. when joe biden took office the national gas average was $2.39 a gallon by this summer, it more than doubled, $5. even higher in california, and his popularity plummeted. and then in the wake of the supreme court overturning roe versus wade on june 24th, the democrats have been getting more hopeful signs about the midterms, maybe hoping to hold on to the senate and a slim chance to keep the house which many attributed to abortion rights and that issue. but could the real issue be something else, as nate cohen suggested in "the new york times" this week isn't st. the

gas price, stupid? cohen pointed out ten days before the issue on abortion in dobbs, gas prices continued to fall and for 98 days separating would continue to drop. and he posted this pair of graphs tracking gas prices from last spring to end the summer and biden's disapproval over the same period. they are nearly indistinguishable. look at that. as gas prices stopped falling, cohen noted so did biden's popularity gains. his findings are shown in history. larry sabato's history crystal ball found that with jimmy carter, back in 1977, the same pattern holds between gas prices and presidential popularity. again, look at that, it's stun. of course, correlation between the numbers does not mean causation. there are all other factors to

play. as pointed out in the crystal ball article, the highest real gas prices over the 45-year period covered came in 2008, a time of economic strife when george w. bush had poor ratings as he finished his presidency but it wouldless about elite to say that the spike in gas prices was the sole reason for the election at that time. democrats have abortion rights on their side, to a lesser extent, the events of january 6th. there's another hearing next thursday. for the "r"s to drive their wrote, they got the border, they've got crime and inflation. ant inflation point of fact remains america's number one issue and by a large margin. in the latest cnn polls in nevada and arizona where the gop is trying to unseat two incumbent democratic senators the economy and inflation were named the top issue by more than twice many voters as the next highest issue abortion.

in nevada, it's 44% economy, 14% abortion. arizona, 41% economy. 17% abortion. in wisconsin, a recent marquette poll found that 70% are very concerned about inflation. abortion didn't make the top five. when it comes to inflation, few things have more impact than gas prices. they hit everybody even people like me who drive electric cars because the price just gets passed on to everything else. i can't help but think back to when gas prices were peaking and there were anti-biden stickers on pumps sarcastically thanking him for high prices and then the administration at the time said don't blame us and the prices came down and stickers remained so it looked like the administration was genuinely thanked and the administration was taking credit. you can't have it both ways it prices surge to the beginning of next month that's on them. i also think back to the public

gravel that the ped did last summer going to mbs in saudi arabia, having called him a pariah appropriately so because of his execution of jamal khashoggi now fist bumping. saudi arabia has hugely disrespected president biden and it's united states of america. i'm not the only one who thinks part of the opec plus motivation was to help the gop and donald trump. in his column titled putin and mbs are laughing at us, pull list prize winner thomas l. friedman says this, we have russia, saudi arabia, iran, bernie sanders, the house progressive caucus and the whole gop all working deliberately, or because they are dupes, to ensure that putin has more oil revenue than ever to kill ukrainians and freeze the europeans this winter until they abandon kyiv. and another dark corner, putin

and saudi, defactor ruler crown prince mohammed bin salman are probably secretly hoping that the unleash of inflation helps that donald trump led republicans to regain control in the house of representatives in next month's election. that would be icing on the cake for both who view trump as still the president who still loves black crude over green solar and knows how to look the other way when bad things happen to good people. to which i woulded the russian meddles versus now is today it's being done in the open. joining me now to discuss is dr. larry sabato, the director of center of politician at the university of virginia. the editor-in-chief of sabsabat crystal ball. larry when you look at those graphs. it's stunning to me. i've never recognized before, i don't know whether to say correlation or causation, but it's pretty damn convincing. >> well, i'm going to say this,

gas prices are certainly part of the calculation and there is some correlation there, although it really isn't all that high because there are so many other factors involved but gas prices certainly are one. what's interesting to me in a commentary on human nature is when gas prices go low, presidents don't necessarily benefit. they usually don't, but when gas prices go high, they pay a penalty. the higher they go, the bigger the penalty. but elections are complex. you know, the simple act of voting is very complicated. and you can't boil it down to just one thing. >> i recognize that there's a month on the clock which is an eternity. i mean in just the last couple of weeks there's been a different issue that has dominated the news cycle. so, we really don't know what the next four weeks bring. i guess that's the reality, right? >> yes, that's the reality. and there are going to be a whole series of october surprises. people tend to think of, quote, the october surprise, as one big

event, that's either been planned by an external source, beyond the united states, or that one party has planned to cause the other party problems. that can happen. but they're actually a series in most elections of october surprises that at least have a little impact. and you mentioned one. they may have more than a little impact, the opec decision. but there will be others, you know. people just have to sit and wait and go through a month. >> it seems that both sides have in their arsenal good motivating factors for their base. there's the abortion issue. and as i said to a lesser extent the january 6 for the ds. the rs have prime. the rs have porous borders, the rs have inflation. which will side do you think holds a stronger hand today, recognizing a lot's going to change in the next month? >> well, since a lot will change i can say pretty much anything today and be safe. >> sure. and we won't remember.

>> no, you won't remember. please don't. but both sides, it seems to me, has the motivation for their abase. and because of that, we've seen in surveys for the last several months that democrats and republicans are about equally enthusiastic about voting and that's critical. you know, when you look at issues whether it's gas prices or abortion rights or something else, we always have to remember that the two most powerful letters in the english language now, in his hyperpartisan age are "d" and "r." they interpret the issues for most voters. and even if you're upset about gas prices, if you're a strong democrat, you're still going to vote democratic from the white house to the courthouse. if you're a republican and you're upset about the dobbs decision, overturning roe v. wade, the odds are pretty good that you're still going to vote republican. you know, we're seeing some of this play out in the georgia senate race. so there are constants that really matter.

and matter more than specific issues. in any campaign. and "d" and "r," would be at the top. >> i was just going to say, you're reminding me of herschel walker and the events that this audience is obviously familiar with, following it during the course of the week. an issue that, you know, you might have thought was going to have a significant impact on that race, seemingly isn't, because people are so entrenched to vote for one side or against another side. you get the final word. >> that's precisely right. it's not just georgia. it's happening all over the country. people who are partisans in this hyperpartisan polarized air find reasons to stick with their party, even if they're unhappy with something. so we overinterpret the issues and underinterpret the power of partisan identification. >> dr. larry sabato, thank you as always. i appreciate it. >> thank you. >> when are your thoughts? tweet me @smerconish.

hit me up during the course of social media. this comes from twitter. high gas prices fit the democrats' narrative except when they want to get re-elected. fact. hey, both sides argue those numbers, when it benefits them, then, we did this. and when it doesn't benefit them, well, we didn't control this, it was the other guy. one other thing i wanted to say, peter winner is the person i most associate with this idea, he wrote it in "the atlantic," evangelicals rewguard him as -- this is what they wrote, a guy who will bring a bglock life to knife fight. the same thing going on in georgia. herschel walker has his short comes but warnock, we don't want him.

facing risque, all the rage among unmarried couples but if a marriage doesn't end well, who gets the books. you're going to meet a divorcee who has been in court trying to claim the rights from her. and after a liberal rights student claims that a professor was who tough in his grading, the professor was fired. the poll may seem odd, go to smerconish.com which, by the way, we just relaunched to make if easier for you to vote on the daily poll question. here's this week's question, would your choice of physician be impacted if you knew they struggled with undergraduate organic chemistry? >> this is the absolutely foreseeable result of the participation trophy society. that these kids -- right? [ applause ] >> when they were playing 6 and 7-year-old soccer. everybody had to get a trophy,

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as the balance of power between students and educators at america's universities has been completely reversed. that's the question raised when an nyu organic chemistry professor was fired after 82 of his students signed a petition complaining that his court, a medical school reprerequisite w too hard. professor matelin jones jr. protect an influential 1300 page textbook now in fifth edition

and garnered many awards. last spring, 82 of the 350 students in his large lecture course unhappy with their test scores signed a petition against him. it read in part we're very concerned about our course and find they're not an accurate reflection of the time and effort put into this class. we urge you to realize that a class with such a high percentagech withdrawals and low grades has paled to make students' learning and well-being a priority and reflects poorly on the chemistry department as well as the institution as a hole. and nyu terminated dr. jones year-to-year contract saying his performance, quote, did not rise to the standards we require in our teaching faculty. in a grievance protesting the decision, jones wrote students were misreading and grades were

declining despite him making tests easier and during the pandemic which involved pretests and examines, the grades, quote, fell off the cliff. by the way, the estimated total cost for an nyu student matriculating for this school year, $83,250. joining me is a columnist for cnn.com where her latest is, this fired chemistry professor shows what's wrong with academia. he's also author of the book "okay, boomer, let's talk: how my generation got left behind." jill, i was thinking if i'm the dean of admissions at a med school and now i get an applicant from nyu, now, what am i to think of that transcript? >> i don't think it casts doubt on the intelligence or abilities of nyu students. to me, this story is much more

about what is academia for? what are institutions of higher learning for? are they consumer products? or are they public goods? and i think unfortunately, here the nyu administration has treated the education that nyu offers more as a consumer product trying to please not just students, frankly, at their parents who hold the purse strings of tuition dollars rather than asking most effectively provide for students and make sure we have professors that are teaching effectively. >> overwhelmingly, the reaction that i have seen to this story is one that regards it as ridiculous. so, let me give you the flip side. this comes from today's print edition of "the new york times." a professor of sociology at indiana university. i'm going to put it on the screen but i'll read it to you because you probably can't see. here's what the professor says, imagine, for example, a student whose high school offered no

advanced chemistry classes who is the first in her family to go to college who in addition to her studies has to work 20 hours a week to pay bills. imagine that this student doesn't have wi-fi or laptop in her apartment, so she has to do her work in a computer lab or on a phone. now compare her to a classmate who took multiple ap courses and has no financial obligations and has at all the tools he needs. they may put them in the same class but their backgrounds find them more apart. do you find that more sympathetic, are you more inclined to side with the student in this case? >> i do find that quite sympathetic. i don't really see this as students versus professors. the nyu student newspaper has a really great editorial about this exact situation, where they give a bit more context to the story, which you know, again is to say, that students were not

demanding that the professor was fired. what they were asking for is more effective teaching methods. i think the timepiece that you read is correct that students are coming to place like nyu with all kinds of different backgrounds. in an institution like nyu which has incredible new resources and has a mission to education people should be helping students to succeed. some classes are tough for a reason. organic chemistry is a class that is supposed to weed students out. but if this particular organic chemistry course was, for example, failing many, many more students than the other organic chemistry courses nyu has on offer, i do think it's worth the university asking why that might be. and trying to make sure no matter which section that the organic chemistry students are in, are getting a similar

education and sqquality educati and not being hand-held, and not punished, essentially, for entering in the wrong class. >> what will i like about the story, he's an old guy he's 82. god bless him for still teaching at that age and being so sharp intellectually where he's able to teach organic chemistry where he wrote the textbook but he provides a constant. i'm sure his grading hasn't changed over the years. by the way, for whom i'm sympathetic because of covid. i need to know how you're answering this week's survey question. kathryn, you can put that up on the screen. here's what i'm asking people, would your choice of physician be impacted if you knew they suggested with undergraduate organic chemistry? jill, i'm all for great opportunity for us all. truthfully, when i get a

physician, or medical exam or treatment, i want the smartest, best individual out there and if somebody struggled for whatever reason on organic chemistry, i don't know, i'd be a little nervous. >> i mean, of course, all of us want to make sure that folks going into the health care profession are able to do a class like organic chemistry. i think you're right, there has been a shift in student performance in the last decade or so. and professor jones has observed that. i do think it's worth inquiring why that is. jones also pointed out that while he had seen kind of a downward shift in student performance over the decade, and he used the phrase fell off the cliff during covid. that's useful information to have. it's not up to nyu to say, we're going to lower standards and make this easier for students. i do think it's up to, of course, universities and high schools and kind of down the line to figure out how do we start to reverse these changes.

how do we make sure that the education we're giving our young people is very high quality. so that the rest of us, when we go to the doctor, be can sure that we get a physician that is not only quite well educated but was able to succeed and able to do well. >> i get it. thank you for that. i appreciate you for being here. >> thanks so much. go vote at smerconish.com. answer this week's poll question, i know it probably sounded a little wacky when i mentioned it at the outset of the prom. now you get the context. would your choice of physician be impacted if you knew they struggled with undergraduate organic chemistry? go vote. totally rebuilt. twitter, youtube, facebook, organic chemistry is probably one of those classes that weeds out students who probably cannot make it in medical school.

you're right, i would never have survived organic chemistry and i know that, then again, i wouldn't make a great physician. for my doctor, i hope he's done well in organic chemistry. i think i'm going to ask him. coming up, my next guest asked her husband to take boudoir photos of her and after 25 years of marriage they divorced. and she wanted to kekeep possession of the bookok and he ex took her to court. i'll tell whaupdpd int happened a moment.

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when couples get divorced what should happen to intimate gifts they've given to each other? and what if those gifts involve nude photographs? that's a question raised by a legal case in utah involves my next guest lindsey marsh who was ordered by a judge to hand over

items of, quote, boudoir-type nudes. what she described as loving and intimate messages to her ex. she didn't want him to have the books but the district court sided with her ex-husband and saying lindsey should have a photographer make a new edition editing out her body. lindsey was able to retain for 90 days before destroying in case her ex wasn't satisfied. saying i cherish the moments i have between a husband and wife, and choose to remember the good even though we are now divorced. i sought to preserve only the handwritten love letters they contained. lindsey marsh joins me now. lindsey, thank you for being here. what's in the pictures because i see him quoted as saying they're not as intimate as you have

suggested? >> these photos taken graphic nudity of my body. >> he says, hey, i only wanted the messages. is that true? >> that is incorrect. there are court documents stating where he's listed all of the items that he would like to have. and it doesn't say anything about just wanting encryptions. it says he wants the four inscribed photo books of lindsay. >> so what's going on here, why do you think he wants the material, whatever it is? >> i think it is out of control and manipulation. >> so, a friend of yours was the photographer. the judge says, go back to the photographer and make these edits. take out the nudity. that photographer friend says this is art. i'm not doing that. judge says, okay, go to another photographer who would have been

a total stranger, how am i doing so far? is this what happened? >> yes, as far as i know, though, the second naerperson t was requested by my ex-husband and his attorney. as far as i know, i cannot find anything as far as him being a photographer, but a digital illustrator. >> and now photographer one, your friend says, i guess i'll do it to help you out. where does it stand today? >> she has put a book together, and it is in mr. marsh's hands. >> do you worry that these photographs somehow in this process could end up online, could be used for some purpose you that never intended? >> yes, that was the reason for me wanting to keep these books. >> and what is the reason for you coming forward? because now you're on cnn international and everybody is looking at this and saying, hey, this is an interesting story,

lindsay marsh posed naked on multiple occasions apparently for the benefit of she and her husband. there's some price there. why are you sharing? >> i want to shed some light on the misogyny in the utah court system. i think people need to know that these are wrong decisions that the judges are making and in my opinion completely inappropriate. >> the response from your ex-husband to that, put it on the screen, if i may, because he gave us a statement. it says lindsay declined judge edwards' suggestion to have us work together without a third party. his decision to have the task done by a photographer who originally made the books also was a close friend and also photographed lindsay in boudoir or nude in dozens of occasions seems to me to be a reasonable way to meet both our needs.

apparently reasonable is the new radical. your response to that is what? >> he's entitled to his opinion. but i don't -- i don't agree with that. and these images, i didn't take a bunch of nude images with this photographer. the only nude images i took were for these books. that was it. and to his earlier statement, he is absolutely right. these images, these books, were made between a husband and a wife. there is no longer a husband and a wife contract. >> is he naked in the books, too? >> there are a few photos, in one of the books where he is wearing a pair of levi jeans and he's shirtless. >> i see. final question, to those who say you gave him a gift, he gets to keep the gift, you would say what? >> i would say then why doesn't he return the ten-year

anniversary ring he gave me 15 years ago? that was a gift, and he can return that at any moment he chooses. >> okay. lindsay marsh, we'll see how it all turns out. thank you for your willingness to tell the story. >> thank you for having me on, i appreciate it. have a great rest of your day. >> you, too. social media, now what has come in, kathryn. from the world of twitter, i think. why would he want to keep it? either to humiliate her or because he's still in love with her? lisa, i have no idea but the second of your thoughts certainly occurred to me. you know, i don't know the details but maybe he's not the one who wanted the separation. the divorce. interesting legal issue, though, isn't it? yeah. i get that it's a gift. maybe she gave him a gift but it's a gift like no other. and i have the same question as you, why would he want it? still to come -- oh, this is interesting, a study of more than 700,000 american

restaurants found areas with a high concentration of chain restaurants all tended to vote the same way. i'm going to break down that data with an expert. and i want to remind you, make sure you're voting on this week's poll question. a little unusual at smerconish.com. would your choice of physician be impacted if you knew they struggled with undergraduate organic chemistry? to desestroy 5x more plaque above the gumline than floss. for a cleaner, heaealthier mout. listerine. feel the whoa! ♪ ♪ great value starting atix dollars. only from ihop. and earn free food with every order. ♪ does it get better than never getting lost? ♪ does it get better than not parallel parking yourself? ♪ alexa ask smartfeed to feed the dog.

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a bank of america company. the data is clear, but not the explanation. turns out places that support donald trump tend to have the most franchise food restaurants. the question is why. trying to find out, my next guest, "the washington post's" andrew van damme drilled down on the findings of a recent study based on research of a marketing data firm. the study includes some 400 businesses qualifies as chain restaurants everything from applebee ace cracker barrel, as

well as specials like morton steakhouse. the study, landscapes of chain restaurants in the united states which is the journal analytics and city science, the authors of georgia tech found that areas of high rates of chainness were associated with the following factors. car dependency. low walkability. low concentration of college-aged students, nearness and high percentage of voters of donald trump. if you think about it, on a practical level, the first four just make plain sense but what accounts for the last one. by example, the metropolitan area with the leastest percentage of chain restaurants, ani aniston, oxford, and 23% of the top vote. same holding true for the top

regions same for ashton region in ohio. farmington, norristown, tennessee, muncie, indiana, so on, you get the picture. on a national level, with the "post" labels the trumpest fifth of the country, counties where trump received 63.3% of the two-party vote in the last presidential election, 33% of the restaurants in that area, chains. while in the least trumpy fifth, where he received less than 32.1% chains comprise only 23% of the local restaurants. what accounts for the large disparity? joining me is andrew van dam, "washington post" columnist in its department of data. thank you for providing me great fodder on radio. because i read your column aloud, everyone had an opinion. here's one, a caller said conservatives like consistency. so when they go to mcdonald's or taco bell, they know what they're getting and it's like comfort food.

what do you make of that explanation? >> well, that may be true, but i think who really likes consistency are people who are driving, people who are on the highways, people who are out and about. and it tends to be that the places that drive the most, that are least walkable, have the most chain restaurants, and also, the places that voted for trump, places that are more conservative, tend to drive a lot more. so it may be that it's the driver that's looking for that consistency, not the trump voyeur. >> in other words, it's not age, and it's not geography. and it's not weight. there's another one that was proposed on radio. but you're saying, it's all about commuters. how did you unravel that? how did you figure that out? >> well, dude, we threw every variable in the universe at this thing, trying to figure out what is really driving chain restaurants in the political divide. and there was one thing that cut

through everything which was car commuting which was how many people in an area tend to drive to work every day. and i note, if you're in a high driving area, it doesn't matter who you voted for, for president. it could be trump or biden, you're going to have a lot more chain restaurants and about the same amount of chain restaurants. if you're in a low driving area, a big city or a low rural area where not as many people have that typical office commute you're going to have a lower number of chain restaurants. it may be that the secret there isn't politics. it's driving. it's that places that voted for trump tend to be drivier places. >> that's because of the three "c"s, right, christianity, country, conservative, meaning those three products on radio are what they're most likely to have. and, therefore, they are terrestrial radio, listeners to conservative talk radio? >> i have heard that posed by so

many readers so far, i bet you have heard that, too. >> i have. >> that people believe it's because commuters spend more time listening to rush limbaugh or mike reagan, so they're politics tend to resemble those folks. >> it's a fascinating study. it reminds me of david wasserman who has done an analysis of cracker barrel and whole foods voters. i cite his work on radio and when i give speeches because he has seen a pattern pertaining to the communities that have one or the other. they don't often build in the same place. final thought from you, andrew? >> that driving really does explain this. but we see this across any driving related variable. it can even be walkability. or drivability of an area, or proximity to a highway. because highways and chain restaurants have a long and storied relationship in america. >> andrew van dam, thank you for being here, really a great

talker. so, thanks. >> thank you so much. checking in on more social media from the world of twitter, i believe. what do we have -- he's popular in most areas aside from the narrative-driven democratic media, i am surprised you don't see outside the bubble. you seem pretty smart. not really. as an uoutsider watching this, am shocked by how dumb so many americans are to still support biden. you got in four or five points there. are you interested in it, when you sort of doing an overlay of where there's fast food, you found, wow, donald trump does really well. nobody is out there to hit him it's just what drives that. oh, my guest was able to unravel it. you know what all of those folks need -- sirius xm, they need satellite radio so they have more choices than just conservative and christian and country. still to come, more of your best and worst tweets, facebook,

comments. the final poll question. i hope you're voting on this. check out the newly designed smerconish.com. i redesigned it to make it easier for you to vote. would your choice of physician be impacted if you knew they struggled with undergraduate organic chemistry? it gets in between teeth to destroy 5x more plaquee above ththe gumline than floss. for a cleaner, healthier mouth. lilisterine. feel the whoa! think he's posting about all that ancient roman coinage? no, he's seizing the moment with merrill. moving his money into his investment account no, he'sin real time moment with merrill. and that's... how you collect coins. your moneyever stops working for you with merrill, a bank of america company.

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i had this idea. if the part since can have their conventions, why should those of us stuck in the middle? friday a gathering of people from across the country dissatisfied with the political status quo, we convened at the national constitution center in philly for the unconvention sponsored by me, unite america and the bipartisan policy center. that's admiral james stavridis, former nato commander, delivering a keynote address. fabulous. it was great to meek so many like-minded people from across the country. so, thank you. time to see how you responded to the poll question at the all-new smerconish.com. would your choice of physician be impacted if you knew they struggled with undergraduate organic chemistry? i know, it's an odd question. let's see the result. a flat 60/40. i am glad a lot voted. no. no, you wouldn't. you don't care.

so you go into a doctor, okay, how about brain surgery? you are going to have brain surgery and you find out that the brain surgeon struggled with organic chemistry s there another brain surgeon in the house? here are some of the social media reaction that came in. i am in the minority again on one of my poll questions. smerconish, you are having unique segments today. i like the change-up. you yeah, thank you for saying that. i thought that the gas price data was really stunning. and i loved getting into that. and the boudoir pic thing is amazing and the organic chemistry thing is cool and the fast food and trump is remarkable and well. thank you for noticing. what else came in? we like a good mixture here. this story is disturbing. if a student struggles through a weed out class it's a sign. shameful decision on a part of nyu. i got a note from my torts professor whale i was on air,

gary, he is a torts professor at rutgers school of law. brilliant guy. and he said to me things have changed since you were a student. gary, i hope that wasn't a private note, by the way. he many students today regard an education as a commodity, we are paying for it, give us the product. but grades aren't supposed to be determined by the amount of effort that you put in. i remember putting a lot of effort into some courses which i really struggled. i wasn't given a grade for the effort. ultimately got to fish or cut bait. continue to vote smerconish.com. enjoy the new website. i'll see you next week. an be the barcode e beat conductor. ♪ go betty! let's be more than our allergies! zeize the day. zyrtec.

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happening now in the newsroom, a fuel tanker explodes on a bridge linking russia to crimea. what this means strategically and symbolically and how ukrainian and russian officials are reacting. georgia senate candidate herschel walker set to address supporters as a new round of allegations rocks his campaign. we will take you there live. it's been very stressful and overwhelming. >> floridians displaced by hurricane ian are standing in line for hours to get the help they need following the storm. our nadia romero is there. new york mayor eric adams declares a state of emergency because of an influx of migrants. >> this is unsustainable. >> the strain the system is under and how that declaration could help. too many lives upended because of our failed approach to marijuana.