on an issue or two of the day. we're going to try to have longer conversations with news democrat makers and experts from all facets of our lives. it starts tuesday at 9:00 p.m. eastern, 6:00 p.m. pacific. thanks for spending your sunday with us. i'll see you tuesday night. fareed zakaria "gps" starts right now. \s this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world? i'm fareed zakaria coming to you from new york. on today's program, is ukraine winning the war? and how do we handle putin's nuclear threats? i will ask that to the former nato supreme commander in europe, general wesley clark. 43 years later, are we on

the verge of another revolution in iran? the images of mostly young people rising up against the regime have captivated all of us. i will talk to an iranian writer who explains what the protestors want. and at a time when economies are struggling around the globe and russia is already getting a billion dollars every few days in oil and gas revenues, why did opec slash production? >> everything has a price. energy security has a price. >> we will explain. but first, here's my take. one of the few issues on which there is a consensus in washington these days is that american policy toward china was built on an intellectual tariff. liberals and conservatives both believe that beijing's embrace of free markets and integration with the global market would fundamentally change china. but they didn't, so the consensus goes, we should recognize this was a naive

belief in the power of markets and trade. in fact, viewing china on the eve of the 20th party congress, i'm struck by how little that line of analysis captures what has happened in china over the last decades. china has gone through profound economic and social changes. its per capita gdp has gone up almost 30-fold since the start of economic liberalization in 1978. mass education and urbanization have changed the face of the country. hundreds of millions of chinese are now middle class, use the most cutting edge tools of the information revolution, and have considerable freedom to start property and change residences, all previously forbidden. it is precisely in response to these massive changes that xi jinping has launched his program of repression and centralization. you see, when xi came to power,

he determined that economic liberalization was transforming china pro-fundally in a bad way. he believed the communist party was becoming irrelevant with a society dominated by consumerism. so he cracked down in every sphere imaginable, attacking the private sector, reviving communist ideology, purging the party of corrupt officials and ramping up nationalism, mostly anti-western, in word and deed. in this regard, xi follows a familiar paren. in dictatorships where liberalization that have produced a middle class, the regime's response is to maintain its hold on power. when taiwa- economic liberalization there gradually led to a growing middle class. and calls for greater political

freedom, prompting the regimes to crack down, often violently. yet repression did not work and gave way to democracy eventually. the real question to ask, why china's response to the changes unleashed by its market opening has been so successful? why has xi jinping's campaign of repression worked where other east asian ones did not? the answer lies in a brilliant 2021 essay by a chinese scholar that points out china is unique in the world. almost every country that has an income per capita higher is a democracy, or an oil and gas-based dictatorship. why is china the great exception? the author revises the distinction between authoritarian and totalitarian. in the former, government is oppressive. in the latter like china and the soviet union, the state dominates all spheres of life and does not allow any

independent civil society to develop. the china eases communist party dominates everything in china. when a social movie rises outside of the party, the party views it as a mortal threat and shuts it down. at the heart of xi jinping's world view is his horror regarding the demise of soviet communism. xi has expressed the view that this happened because the communist party leaders lost faith in their ideology. he sees mikhail gorbachev as a foolish reformer, who opened up the political system only to see the whole country collapse. the lesson -- double down on le leninist party control. in the conditions of a totalitarian state, the changes produced by economic growth lead to the need for more and more repression, producing in china, and i would add russia, a reversion to neo-stalinism. putin and xi are similar in

recognizing that too much contact in commerce with the west can yunld mine their rule, inspiring them to search weighing to make their countries less dependant on the west and to consolidate their personalized rule. the problem for xi is he's steering china on a dangerous path. the state is dominating the economy again and growth has slowed considerably. enterprising chinese businessmen are moving to singapore and elsewhere. areas of chinese society that were innovative are now closing down. international hostility to xi's expansionism is growing. the neo-stalinist model bottles up all the forces of change, leaving only one door open -- revolution. by 2035, china will have about 300 million college graduates. will they be content to live quietly under xi's reign of repression?

go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "the washington post" column this week. and let's get started. ♪ yesterday morning, the strait bridge in ukraine suffered a massive explosion. ukrainians express great excitement about the disaster. the ukrainian's government own twitter account summed it up in two words, "sick burn." the explosion was undoubtedly a setback for russia, part of a month-long string of them. retired general wes clark joins us now to help us understand what's going on. he's a former supreme allied commander of nato, who is now a cnn military analyst. wes, the crimean bridge, i heard

people say things like this is a body blow, because the russians will not be able to resupply. but i heard people say they can repair this easily. how significant is this bridge explosion? >> i think it's very significant psychologically and politically. i think in terms of the military impact of it, it's too early to know. it's at least a marginal impact, but certainly not a significant blow to what russia is doing in ukraine. not yet. it will be the subject, no doubt, of continuing efforts by the ukrainians. >> so if you look at the northeast, you know, the russian position seems to have collapsed. the ukrainians are just moving forward slowly but steadily. the real fight is in and around kherson. what is the ukrainian objective there, and why is it so important?

>> well, kherson, if you can take it, it eliminates the russian bridge head on the west bank of the dnieper river. and that stops the threat or at least reduces the threat to odesa. it gives more access to the black sea to the ukrainians, and it opens the way to regaining crimea. so it's very important. they're trying to isolate the right bank from the left bank, cut off the logistics, go after the command and control, leave those 25,000 russian soldiers there isolated and demoralized and they work their way through that. it's a tough fight. but they've got the momentum. >> and you have often said, and when you say this, you remind me of omar bradley's great line, amateurs talk strategy, experts talk logistics. you often said your advice to the ukrainians, do not outrun your lines.

what does that mean? >> that's right. when you're on an offensive like this, you have to pace it. you have to not outrun your lines of communication. troops have to be rested, ammunition has to be resupplied, equipment has to be repaired and you have to rotate. you don't want to push ahead, run into an ambush, lose your force. so we would call that a culminating point. so what we want the ukrainians to do, what we hope they are doing is measuring their attack, working smoothly, make is so it lasts. in the northeast and against keir kherson, step by step, use reconnaissance, intelligence, pick the targets, use precision fire, protect your force as you advance. >> what are you struck by as you watch the russian forces and how they fight and behave?

you spent a lot of time looking at this kind of thing. >> yeah, i went to russia several times. i was nato commander. i looked at russian forces, looked at their training methods and talked to their generals. they really haven't advanced since world war i. they have high technology, you educate the generals, tell them to attack and you need a really mean general who will take harsh discipline against them if they don't perform. but it's mostly about artillery, it's about the weight of fire and the individual soldier, he's just out there. and this is the exact opposite, freed, the way we believe wars are won. we say it's the individual soldier, his character, his commitment, his training, his weapon, his ability to be protected to deliver precision fire. generals, commanders, they can lose the battle, set the conditions for success, but they can't win it. it's won at the soldier level. ukrainians get this. the russians clearly don't. >> do you think as a consequence, will the 300,000 mobilization work? these are completely untrained, i assume, russians.

>> i think some of them may have had some initial training. it doesn't take long to teach a man to fire an ak-47 or rpg. but the thing about it is, it's about teamwork, about trust, about building cohesive units, and none of that is going to happen with these russian new recruits. they will be thrown into the line as fillers for units that have been decimated and lost confidence in their commanders. so yeah, if they're attacked, they will probably shoot back initially to defend themselves. but a cohesive force, not going to happen in the near term. >> and wes, what should we make of putin's nuclear threats? they do seem to be having some effect. for example, this one person, donald trump, is saying if we don't have a negotiated peace between ukraine and russia, we're going to have world war iii. that's the specter that putin is

raising by talking about nuclear weapons. >> i think that's right. the russians have spent 60 years trying to instill a fear of nuclear power and nuclear weapons in the west. and they've done this as recently as in august. when putin said no one could win a nuclear war, okay, why is he threatening a nuclear war? because this is basically a psychological effort against the united states, and men like donald trump are picking it up and they want to undercut the will and resolve of the west to assist the ukrainians in this fight.

if the weapons were used, they can be used against fixed targets. you can target kharkiv and do horrible damage to kharkiv. but when you are trying to hit moving forces with artillery delivered, we never got very good results with this, because there's too many moving parts. it's too difficult. so you end up with some weapons fired and in this scenario, lots of tree blow down, holes in the ground, and maybe troops get sick three months later from radiation poisoning. but in every case it was a disappointment tactically. it did not yield strong, tactical results. but if he uses them, there will be strong psychological impact. so we have to be careful on the one hand saying okay, this would be a really bad step if they use it. but on the other hand, we don't want to get ourselves so scared that we don't support the ukrainians. the way out of this is to give ukraine the military assistance it needs as rapidly as possible, and push putin out. leave him no choice. make it so that the use of nuclear weapons won't make a difference tactically. >> wes clark, brilliant analysis. thank you. we will be back on iran.

on thursday, secretary of state blinken announced sanctions against iran's ministers of the interior and communications and five other officials of the islamic republic. all for their roles in the crackdown against protestors. the unrest was sparked by the death of a 22-year-old woman who had been arrested by the

morality police, accused of violating iran's dress code. at the forefront of the protests against her killing are women and young people. i want to bring in my next guest to understand its movement, the meaning and power. she is an iranian-american writer. welcome. i wanted to ask you first, what was your -- what are your impressions just watching these protests? what is it that you are noticing? >> umm, i'm noticing something i haven't seen since 1979. some of the images that are coming out of iran are very much reminiscent of the country that i remember, the turmoil that i remember from 1978 and 1979. kids were grouping up. kids were ripping up the images of the shah out of their textbookses they were tearing down the images of the supreme leader this time around from their

classrooms. there is a unified movement throughout the country that is focused on a singular slogan we have never heard, which is "women like freedom" and i think it signals toward a major, major shift, from all the past demonstrations that we have seen. >> what i noticed is they were tearing pictures of not just the current supreme leader, but the founding supreme leader of iran, which strikes me of almost getting to the core of the regime's legitimacy. >> precisely. you're exactly right. no demonstration in the past, no protest, no group that has come out to object to the regime, had ever gone this far. and this moment, where they are saying not only the president, not only the current supreme leader, but the very founder of

this regime is the very person that we no longer want to identify with. i think that is the signal that we have reached a point of no return. that the nation has crossed a boundary that it had never crossed before. >> why do you think her case triggered this? >> because she's every woman. because first of all, she was a kurdish woman. she was in tehran with her brother for a visit. she was not an activist. she was not in any way, shape, or form political. and the fact that she was every woman, the fact that she was ordinary, is the reason why everybody is, i think, so up in arms, because she could be me, she could be anybody's sister, anybody's mother. and if that happened to her, then no woman in iran could be safe.

>> i think i read somewhere that you wrote iranians have tried protesting and asking for reform in so many ways. there was the green movement, that elected a woman president twice, and nothing seems to work. is this -- do you think it's fair to say this is now at least these iranians are calling not for reform but revolution? >> this is way past reform. people gave reform a lot of time to work and it didn't. so they have turned to revolution, and that's precisely what's happening in iran at the moment. >> in the past, these protests have not led to anything. can they succeed this time? >> the demonstrators are saying they don't intend to go home and they don't intend to stop. the regime, the system has

entirely lost its legitimacy. whether the demonstrators succeed or not will depend on the support that the international community and the united states will provide them. and they should have every incentive, especially america, to do just that. for 40 plus years, the united states has been waiting for iranians to stop burning american flags, burning u.s. efficient -- effigies of uncle sam and not considering, not calling the united states the great satan. these demonstrators are out on the streets chanting "our enemy is right here, they lie when they say it's the united states." we have reached a point that we have always wanted to reach as miles an hour. americans. iranians have forgone the

hostility that they have had with us. now will we hear the voice of the people as americans. will we side with the people and do the right thing to correct our past mistakes as americans in iran and other places in the middle east where we side with the tie tyrants, and do we hear the people. if we do that and right the things we have done wrong, then the demonstrators will have a shot accomplishing what they have come out on the streets to accomplish. roya, thank you so much. that was very, very insightful. >> thank you. next on "gps," a coalition of major oil producing nations announced a major cut in production. that is good news for putin and bad news for biden. we will help you make sense of it all in a moment. because it penetrates deep into the tooth to help actively repair acid-weakened enamel.

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on wednesday, opec and other major oil producing nations, including russia, announced they would cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day. or about 2% of global demand. the grouping known as opec plus is working to reverse a steady slide in oil prices since june. this decision is a win for vladamir putin, who wants to prop up oil prices to keep funding the war in ukraine. it's a defeat for the white house, which aggressively lobbied its middle east allies against this move. biden wants to keep prices down ahead of the midterm elections. joining me now to explain it all

is the director and founder of research at energy aspects. welcome. >> thank you for having me. >> so you are well known to have very well placed saudi sources. so let me first ask you, why do you think the saudis did what they did? >> lots of reasons, right? first and foremost, which is something they have been talking about, they are worried about a global recession, so they don't want to be in a situation say in two or three months' time when stocks have built up a lot in oil, prices have collapsed, to whatever the number is, is it $40, $50. and then that's when they step in, cut production to balance the market. so they are being preemptive, but there is one other aspect that you would argue that's not been as publicized but played a role in this decision is all this talk of a price cap. the u.s. and europe, but particularly the u.s. i would say, is really focusing and

trying to rally not just europe but also india, china, other countries, other buying countries, to put a price on russian oil. because ultimately, the white house wants to limit the amount of oil revenues russia is getting for funding its war. the problem is that if you are to cap the price of oil, whatever that price is for russia, opec plus and saudi arabia include, feels that they would have to sell their oil at that price. so let's say russia agrees, which they haven't, and putin in particular has openly come out and said by the way, if you do the price gap, i will just stop supplying you with oil. but let's just go with the assumption that russia agrees to a price cap of $70. then saudi arabia will have to sell its oil at $70, as will u.s. producers. it sets a dangerous precedent,

and the fact that consumers get to dictate the price at which producers are going to sell is just not something opec plus are even going to entertain. >> so what you are describing are pretty hard-nosed economic reasons why the saudis are doing this. do you not buy the argument that there was an element of a kind of snub of biden and payback for two years of having boycotted mbs, do you think any of that played a role? >> i don't think so. the reason i say this is because there have been instances in the past as well when this has come up, and i think if saudi arabia or anybody else wanted to, you know, go ahead and hurt the u.s., they could have done it in the past, as well. i do think, however, this does confirm some of the geopolitical alliances that have been forming

already in the past couple of months or years even i would argue. and i do look back at wednesday's meeting as a watershed moment for the oil markets. when opec last met, there's always questions about, is there going to be u.s. pressure on opec to do something, right? this time i think opec plus has shown that they are acting in their own interest, and nobody else's. >> so what can biden do? he's been releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. he could do more, but the reserve is getting emptied. what are his options, if his goal is to increase supply and reduce prices? >> they can absolutely release more oil from the strategic reserve, but this is a time when energy security needs to be the priority. we have drawn down over 200 million barrels from the strategic oil, which only had 600 plus million barrels of oil.

it's taken the u.s. well over three, four decades to fill that oil. so that is a dangerous move to run it down before you actually might need it. but yes, that is an option. what could work is actually limiting diesel and gasoline exports. that's something that has been talked about by the department of energy and white house. so that could be in the cards. >> what about increasing supply? a lot of the conservative critics of biden, "the wall street journal" editorial page goes on about how you could still increase u.s. domestic supply. when i have talked to oil company executives, they say we're pumping everything we can. >> i'm glad you asked that question, because last week, i've been in the midwest with mostly oil producers, ceos of

large and medium-sided oil companies and independents. the most worrying thing i found out is the best quality of areas where u.s. production was taking place, the producers have pretty much depleted that outside of the permian basin, which is in texas and around that region. outside of that, we have maxed out. >> finally, iran and venezuela. let's leave the politics of whether you can want the price to pay or to get back into the deal. but from a market point of view, if those two countries start producing and exporting, would that be a big difference? >> those two are really the only hope for the oil market. the only two countries that due to sanctions are not in the market are venezuela and iran. venezuela, the problem is, it's years of delapidation.

it will take years to bring production back. iran much more quickly can come back to the market, because iran is holding 60 million barrels of oil on ships. >> a lot of hard choices for the biden administration. thank you. next on "gps," how that make sure your nation doesn't fall apart when it's been invaded. lessons from the second most powerful man in ukraine. that interview after the break. it's time... to score a deal. because wayfair's five days of deals are here! deck those halls with seasonal decor from $9. up to half off fireplaces and heating, kitchen must-haves up to 65% off... and dining deals you don't want to miss. plus, free shipping. on everything at wayfair.

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with andriu yermak, zelenskyy's top aide. i asked him what it was like to govern a country at war. pleasure to have you on the program. >> yes, for me as well. it's a big pleasure and big honor to meet with you, fareed. >> let me ask you about what it's like to run a presidential administration in circumstances like these. so when the war began, you get to the president's office, he tells you about the invasion, and you stay there and you're working there for how long, how many days? >> no, we're still there. we're living there. >> living in there? >> yes. >> in those bunkers? >> yes, yes, yeah, yeah, yeah. >> for six months? >> for six months we were, yeah. >> and what was your first job?

what was the first thing you had to do? >> first, when i was came, it was necessary very quickly to keep all governments, all security military people, and during the, i think, a couple of hours, everybody was meeting in the cabinet of the president. but that time, we are looking for our country, for that we need to do our best, that our country keep and be able to fighting. and you can see more than six months, we have, yes, this so terrible war. but our people receive salary. our people receive their pension. it will be impossible if we will be first not to be prepared. >> so you're in the presidential office, living there.

when do you see your wife and children? a few days later? >> we see our families the first i think it's in two months. >> so for two months you were just working, appeared your family and children, did they leave for safe? safety? >> all my family was here in kyiv. >> and the president's family? >> and the president. we done and continue doing what we need to do. because we are in this position. the people elected presidents, and presidents are tasked, and we are the team of the president. we need to do our best to win this war, to survive for our people. >> what was the lesson you took? >> from whom? >> from the first few days, when

you look back, do you think -- did you get it right? did you get it wrong? >> umm, no, i'm realist. i understand that it's impossible to change the first days. but i'm looking to the results. we already de-occupied a big part of our territory. we are not lose our economy. we are not lose the manager -- management of the country. and i'm so proud that i'm ukrainian, because i know that it's very beautiful country. it's the best country in the world. once again, we understood how brave, how heroic our people.

i think this feels so proud of the ordinary people, because this war will be win by ukrainian nation. >> so what did your wife tell you about, you know, not being able to see her for a month? was she totally supportive? was she scared? >> of course we are worried about them and they worry about us. but i think it's more at the same time, i never forget that some of our people never can see their relatives, their families, their children, and this is the tragedy which we never forget. we never forget, and it's -- it's why i think that -- this is

a big privilege that, during this war, the ordinary people around the world, i'm very happy that the love of americans, maybe some of them just listen about our country. but they so deeply feel this tragedy, they so deeply feel these connections. and so support and so help, then i see so many ukrainian flags in american buildings. and i think that our victory will be a victory together with our partners. together with americans people. and it's necessary it happens as

soon as possible. andriu yermak t. thank you very much. >> thank you, fareed. thank you very much. next on "gps," between the war in ukraine and challenges to democracy here in america, the news can feel dark. i will bring you a piece of positive news you don't want to miss, when we come back. internet solutions nationwide. (wayne) for our not-so-small business too. (vo) get internet that keeps your business ready for anything. from the network america relies on. >> tech: at safelite, we take care of vehicles with the latest technology. when my last customer discovered a crack in his car's windshield, he scheduled at safelite.com. safelite makes it easy. we're the experts at replacing your glass... ...and recalibrating your advanced safety system. >> customer: and they recycled my old glass. now that's a company i can trust. >> tech: don't wait. schedule today. ♪ pop rock music ♪ >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪

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and now for the last look. psychologists tell us that human beings are hard wired with a negativity bias, meaning we're overly sensitive to bad news. and there's lots of it out there these days. the war in ukraine. challenges for democracy in the united states. natural disasters. but we often miss the good news, especially if it doesn't come in the form of a single event. one of the most striking positive trends in the world these days can be found in the

democratic strength, character, and leadership of germany. something i recently wrote about in "the washington post." in august, german chancellor olaf sholz gave a speech in prague which he promised his country would support ukraine reliably and for as long as it takes. he explained that germany had undergone a fundamental change on providing military aid to ukraine. there's some validity to the criticism that germany hasn't given enough, but it has given a remarkable amount of aid for a country that was so persistently pacifist after world war ii. he also wants a more integrated europe, one that would welcome more members. that aspire to the ideals. this is all part of what he calls a turning of the times. on one level, it is indeed a dramatic shift. yet it is also the continuation of a remarkably consistent

german attitude toward europe and the world since 1945. think about how different the world would look if we did not have at the center of europe, its most powerful nation, the country that is the largest net contributor to the european union, totally committed to democratic values and willing to make sacrifices for them. germany today is the rock on which a new europe is being built. and the sacrifices are real and deep. natural gas prices in europe have gone way up over the last year. electricity prices have skyrocketed, as well. vladamir putin has ramped up the pressure by cutting gas exports to germany, a country he thinks he knows very well because of his years serving there in the kgb. but germany has not given in. confronted with these massive challenges, it has patiently sought to diversify away from dependance on russia, investing in green technology, buying

liquefied natural gas, reopening coal fired plants and keeping two of its last three nuclear power plants open longer than planned. the european union suggested a 15% reduction in the use of natural gas this winter. germany is trying to achieve 20% cut just to be safe. initially, sholz was regarded as a lightweight, but angela merkel herself was seen similarly when she came power. over time she developed the respect from all corners. when russia invaded ukraine in 2014, she was at the forefront in condemning it and persuading europe to impose an ambitious program of sanctions. she also led the world in responding to the syrian refugee crisis, reassuring her country by declaring we can do this. i remember the reaction to

another chancellor, helmut kohl, who was called a colorless man from the sticks because he did not come from the country's elite class. but he proved to be the man who succeeded in reunifying germany, keeping it firmly anchored in the west. in 1945, no one would have predicted that germany would develop as it has. it came out of the war utterly destroyed. its cities flattened. its population starving. post war germany was scarred by the gruesome legacy of hitler and the holocaust. but the country found a way to overcome its past, to become in henry kissinger's words, a normal country with an abnormal memory. and that much larger thing, the turning of the times, is one of the great good news stories of our times. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. zapped in seconds. the face of clean. the face of whoa.

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hello, everyone. thank you for joining me this sunday. i'm fredricka whitfield. a horrific and chaotic scene in ukraine. russian missiles hitting civilian neighborhoods in zaporizhzhia. at least 12 people killed, another 87 injured including 10 children. the strikes just hours after a massive explosion paralyzed the only direct road and rail connection between annexed crimea and the russian mainland. ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the blast but has publicly