r air. kevin: and helps prevent the wildfires that create toxic smoke. that's why calfire firefighters, the american lung association, and the coalition for clean air support prop 30. naomi: i'm voting yes on 30.

this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the would. i'm fareed zakaria coming live to you from new york. today on the program, i'll talk to "new york times" columnist tom friedman who points out not only is the united states involved in the largest war in europe since world war ii, but america has also entered a sort of tech war with china. and an energy struggle with saudi arabia. what in the world is going on? and china's leaders, more than 2,000 of them, are gathering this week to make major decisions about the country's decision for the next five years and beyond. on the agenda, an unprecedented third term in office for xi jinping. what else will be decided? i will talk to the former prime

minister of australia. then -- stop the steal maybe headed south of the border, as latin america's largest democracy seems to be taking cues from its neighbor up north. >> you don't concede when there's theft involved. >> we'll tell you about the controversy with brazil's presidential election. but first here's my take. a distinguished russia expert has argued that the west's confrontation with russia over ukraine has already brought us into world war iii. that is dangerous hyperbole. what made the first two world wars so devastating is the major powers of the day got into direct and protracted military conflict with one another. we are not in that kind of battle today, and with nuclear weapons, one shutters to think

about the trajectory of a great power war. but she's right in one sense, the west is collectively waging economic war on russia on a scale that would have been unimaginable just a year ago. the consequences of that are likely to be with us for decades. this new cold war marks the end of the era of globalization and integration that has shaped the international system since 1989. we're now living in a new world of great power competition, economic nationalism, and technological decoupling. the risks of this new war might not be nuclear, but they are sky high, especially for the united states. the sanctions against russia have been more far-reaching than anyone had previously predektd. they have included extraordinary measures, such as freezing central reserves.

they've targeted the key vulnerabilities of countries in a world of globalized supply chains by denying russia access to advanced technology. the author chris miller writes among the first affected sectors have been cars, trucks, locomotives and fiberoptic cables. ru russia's imparts have also collapsed. when you look at some of russia's broad economic indicators, they're holding up better than expected. the imf predict its economy would contract by 8.5% this year. it's revised that to 3.4%. inflation spiked but is easing now. the reasons are vary yesterday. russia is not that globalized of an economy and the state has a large foot print within it, which cushion the population from external blows. but the biggest explanation by far is russia is a resource

economy, whose wealth depends on its export of oil, gas, nickel, aluminum and other commodities. and those have been largely shielded from sanctions because the west realizes the world relies on these inputs and banning them would cause as pump pain to consumers as to russia the producer. washington sanctions have been well planned and well executed with one exception -- energy. if the goal is to reduce moscow's oil revenues, the sensible strategy, assuming you can't cut off all oil supplies, would be to allow petroleum to flow unrestricted while working on a long-term plan to reduce western dependance on russian energy. that way supply will stay plentiful which means prices would stay low. instead, western countries announced an embargo on russian oil. the price cap is an effort to correct these mistakes and

essentially negate the effect of the oil embargo. so will the efforts to get the saudis to pump more oil. the saudis miscalculated how badly their decision would go down in washington. but the largest problem is the west's incoherent energy strategy. it's underinvested in the energy it uses today, which is fossil fuels, based on magical thinking of the energy of tomorrow, renewables, which will come the day after tomorrow. the greatest danger to the united states is that much of this economic war is being waged by america alone. using the unique status of the dollar as its weapon. because countries need to use the one truly global currency, the threat to cut them off from it allows for sanctions that can touch on goods and services that are not even produced in america.

the dollar hit a two-decade high last month because of the lack of alternatives. but at the same time, many major countries from india to saudi arabia, turkey, indonesia, the gulf states and china are searching for ways to shake off the hold of u.s. currency and escape the long reach of washington's economic power. and i've suggested before, joe biden needs to make a speech in which he explains that it is only because of the unprecedented nature of russia's challenge to the rules based international order that washington is wielding these weapons and they'll never be used for parochial interests. he should be trying to keep the widest number of countries on board. even if america won this struggle with russia, future historians might remember this as the moment when countries around the world began to reduce their dependance on america.

and when washington lost what a french president once called the exorbitant privilege of holding the world's reserve currency. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column. and let's get started. let's talk about the new world of economic war against russia. but yes, also involving china and saudi arabia. for all of this, let me bring in "the new york times" columnist tom friedman. tom, welcome. the first thing is we often don't think a lot about what a countermove of the other side will be. so we've been waging this unprecedented war against vladamir putin. how do you think putin is thinking about it, and what is his most likely response, though we're already seeing some of it? >> well, fareed, putin's most

likely response we've already seen, which is to i think, blow up that pipeline out of russia that was providing natural gas for europe. in combination with our own ban on imports from russian oil. we're going to create a situation here where a lot of european countries are going to have a very cold and uncomfortable winter. and gas and oil prices around the world will be extremely high. and i think that's basically putin's hail mary, fareed, where he's going to throw as many troops into ukraine to hold the ground, hope that oil prices spike as high as possible in the winter. force people around the world to choose between heating and eating. and create pressure, he hopes, for the iranians to cut a dirty deal with him. >> when you think about this energy issue, you have rsaid th heart of this problem we have

not thought seriously about the transition to green technologies and underinvested in expiration for oil and natural gas. is there a way to square the circle, to invest in these technologies so that we can have relatively low oil and gas prices, and at the same time, move to a green future? >> fareed, we need a strategy that maximizes three things. our energy security, economic security, and our climate security. the only way you're going to get that is if the biden administration does something it has failed to do, which is bring the leading oil and gas companies, executives around the table with the leaders and advocates within the administration of our climate policy, and come up with a solution that maximizes all three. if you don't do that, we're basically telling the oil and gas companies you're dinosaurs, please go off somewhere and quietly die after you give us a

little more oil and gas to get through this winter. the message that sends is hey, don't invest new money in oil and gas, just raise your dividends, and buy back more of your stock. that's what's been going on. so we underinvest in our own capacity, meaning we can't make up for russia's losses and prices go higher. we need to have an honest discussion about this, and we're not. people are basically just assuming you can flip a switch, and there's just so much virtue signaling around this woke green energy that is unrealistic. i'm as green as they come, but it's not going to happen in the short term and we have to be realistic about it. >> when you look at the saudi situation, it just strikes me that, you know, at the end of the day, this rupture shows that this is a very fragile relationship. i've always thought of america and saudi arabia as such

different countries that it's very difficult to maintain this alliance when there's a rupture like this, because there's so much distrust between two very systems. >> that's right, fareed. after 9/11, after the brown troutal mu-- brutal murder of khashoggi, the relations between us and saudi arabia were frail, basically. we asked saudi arabia to use its influence not to raise opec oil prices, not to side with putin who wants prices to go high so he can get money for pumping less oil. and the saudis made a cal calculation based on their budgetary needs and told biden basically to take a hike. i get it. they've got that power. i don't think we're going to break relations with them in the short run. but lord, how long are we going to have an energy policy that

leaves us exposed that forces our president to go to saudi arabia on bended o ed knee and for more oil. we have the resources and we have to do it with a climate policy. but we have waited too long. there has to be a coherent, strategic approach to this, and get over the whole progressive thing that we can't talk to oil companies. if the biden administration doesn't get a coherent policy together, if the energy secretary, who has been missing in action, doesn't get the group together, we need to have a coherent policy that maximizes economic and climate security, if not, we're going to beg every six months for somebody else to fill in the gap. >> let's talk about china. there is a big difference between the economic war being waged against russia and the one against china. the china sanctions that have

been announced, these measures to restrict technology, they seem very targeted, very focused. they're only on the highest end of semi conductor chips. so the effort is not to wage a war against china but to deny china access to the cutting edge of technology. it seems to me to make sense. what do you think? >> i understand why we're doing it, fareed. but this is -- in terms of u.s./china relations, this is quite a move. i don't know where it ends. china's president, xi jinping, invited this move. if you think about xi and putin together, we have the two strongest leaders in russia and china since stalin and mao. but when stalin and mao

misbehaved, it was the chinese and russians they can hurt. now when the leaders of china and russia go off the rails, it affects the whole world. it touches all of us. and there's no question that xi is taking china in a very bad direction. so i understand where this is coming from entirely. that said, though, i don't know how china is going to react. china, fareed, controls over 80% of all the world's rare earths that go into your electric car batteries. are they now going to go tit for tat on that? i don't know. but we unravel the product of globalization, and in those 40 years, no great power war, hundreds of millions of people came out of poverty, and interest rates and inflation were relatively low.

you're going to miss that era when it's gone. again, i have no sympathy with xi. where he's taking china is in a wrong direction, backwards. but i do think we're heading down a road where i don't know where it ends, and it's not going to be good, fareed. >> tom friedman, always a pleasure to hear from you. we'll be back to talk about china. preservision. preservisision areds 2 contais the only clinically proven nutrient formula recommended by the national eye institute to help reduce the risk of moderate to advanced amd progression. "preservision is backed by 20 years of clinical studies" "and its from the eye experts at bausch and lomb" so, ask your doctor about adding preservision. and fill in a missing piece of your plan. like i did with preservision" ♪ ♪ ♪

voltaren. the joy of movent. ♪ moderate to severe eczema still disrupts my skin. despite treatment it disrupts my skin with itch. it disrupts my skin with rash. but now, i can disrupt eczema with rinvoq. rinvoq is not a steroid, topical, or injection. it's one pill, once a day, that's effective without topical steroids. many taking rinvoq saw clear or almost-clear skin while some saw up to 100% clear skin. plus, they felt fast itch relief some as early as 2 days. that's rinvoq relief. rinvoq can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. serious infections and blood clots, some fatal, cancers including lymphoma and skin cancer, death, heart attack, stroke, and tears in the stomach or intestines occurred. people 50 and older with at least one heart disease risk factor have higher risks. don't take if allergic to rinvoq, as serious reactions can occur. tell your doctor if you are or may become pregnant. disrupt the itch and rash of eczema. talk to your doctor about rinvoq.

learn how abbvie can help you save. detect this: living with hiv, i learned i can stay undetectable with fewer medicines. that's why i switched to dovato. dovato is for some adults who are starting hiv-1 treatment or replacing their current hiv-1 regimen. detect this: no other complete hiv pill uses fewer medicines to help keep you undetectable than dovato. detect this: most hiv pills contain 3 or 4 medicines.

dovato is as effective with just 2. research shows people who take hiv treatment as prescribed and get to and stay undetectable can no longer transmit hiv through sex. don't take dovato if you're allergic to its ingredients, or if you take dofetilide. taking dovato with dofetilide can cause serious or life-threatening side effects. hepatitis b can become harder to treat while on dovato. don't stop dovato without talking to your doctor, as your hepatitis b may worsen or become life-threatening. serious or life-threatening side effects can occur, including allergic reactions, lactic acid buildup, and liver problems. if you have a rash or other allergic reaction symptoms, stop dovato and get medical help right away. tell your doctor if you have kidney or liver problems, or if you are, may be, or plan to be pregnant. dovato may harm your unborn baby. use effective birth control while on dovato. do not breastfeed while taking dovato. most common side effects are headache, nausea, diarrhea, trouble sleeping, tiredness, and anxiety. detect this: i stay undetectable with fewer medicines.

ask your doctor about switching to dovato. ♪ you see that? that's the moment i realized i'm ready to open my own restaurant. ♪ start your financial plan today. ♪ earlier today, in beijing's tiananmen scarequare, the commu party's 20th national congress is expected to hand a historic

third term to xi jinping, kremgt his position to one of china's most powerful leaders. what agenda will china set for the next five years and beyond? joining me now is a former prime minister of australia, now the president and ceo of the asian society, and this year released an important new book called "the avoidable war, the dangers of a catastrophic conflict between the united states and xi jinping's china." kevin, welcome. i want to ask you about this party congress. we look at china right now and we see a lot of problems. we see a covid policy that isn't working. we see an economy that's stalled. we see a lot of distrust among china's neighbors, from india to australia. will any of this matter as xi jinping solidifies his power base, or has he got such an

internal lock on power, that this party congress will just be a rubber stamp of his third term? >> i think, fareed, it's important for us all to take out the rubber stamp. the bottom line, is despite the head winds you just referred to, particularly in the slowing of the economy, also covid social economic impact, and the external shall i say missteps, xi jinping's leninist control of the party is very, very strong. you'll see him remarkably appointed by unanimous votes. you'll see personnel appointments that are his closest supporters. and a continuation of the xi jinping policy line, probably, on the economy and foreign security policy, as well. but it really is shaping up to be a profound coronation for a leader who will not just be around for the next five years,

but intends to be around for life. >> and so when we look at that, we are talking about a continuation of his philosophy which has taken china in a very different direction. it was liberalizing checkly. xi jinping has doubled down on state control and state organizations. he's getting much tougher with the united states, much tough we are his neighbors. is all of that likely to be articulated now in a way that, you know, we almost get a kind of doctrine from xi jinping? >> well, fareed, i think the important thing about this party congress is to look carefully at xi jinping's work report to the party congress. and the reason i say that is it outlines the idealogical articulation of xi jinping's political, economic, and

international policy line. i think that is where the real substance of this congress lies. what i've seen in the last several years now, fareed, three big change. xi jinping has moved the center of gravity of the politics to the leninist left, more party control over everything. he's moved the center of gravity towards the, marxist left, and at the same time, moved the dial towards the nationalist right in a more assertive in foreign security policy. i see those trends on balance as leakly to be continued, and in some areas strengthened. >> and somewhat happens with the issue of taiwan? again, it seems to me the approach was this very long-term strategy of unification. eventually, 1.4 billion people on one side of the taiwan strait, they're 22 million on the other side, in the long run

we will be unified. xi seems to be talking about a much shorter time frame, and he seems to be talking about unification by whatever means necessary. >> well, fareed, you're right. xi jinping has begun to reflect a timetable, an urgency about this question. not next year or the year after. and in my judgment, probably not this decade. but he has said you can't achieve china's ultimate national goal of national rejuvenation, which is code language for becoming the preemgent regional global power, xi jinping said you can't achieve that by 2049 without bringing taiwan back into chinese sovereignty. if you like, at the largest, most expensive scale, we're on a 27-year timetable. my expectation is he would want to be in that position to do

that in the early 2030s when he would still hope to be around. but the clock has started ticking, unless the united states, allies and taiwan can effectively bring about pill tear and economic deterrence against that in the meantime. >> that is a frightening prospect. pleasure to have you on. >> good to be with you, fareed. next on "gps," is the forecast for the american economy getting even gloomier? how about for the global economy? i will discuss that next. two pairs! and they don't even have to be i identical! in fact, one pair cacan be practical and sturdy, while the otheher pair is super stylish anand wildly good-looking. not that it's a contest or anything. two pairs and a free, quality eye exam starting at just $79.95. the exam alone is worth at least $59. book yours today at americasbest.com the silent type, i see. >> tech: at safelite, we take care of vehicles with the latest technology.

we can replace your windshield ...and recalibrate your safety system. >> cu>>ech: don't wait.ecycled schedule today. >> singers: ♪ safelite reir, safelite replace. ♪ (vo) get the new iphone 14 pro on us. apple business essentials right now t-mobile is inclg so you can easily manage your team's devices. on the network with more 5g coverage. only from t-mobile for business. (fisher investments) it's easy to think that all money managers are pretty much the same, but at fisher investments we're clearly different. (other money manager) different how? you sell high commission investment products, right? (fisher investments) nope. fisher avoids them. (other money manager) well, you must earn commissions on trades. (fisher investments) never at fisher. (other money manager) ok, then you probably sneak in some hidden and layered fees. (fisher investments) no. we structure our fees so we do better when our clients do better. that might be why most of our clients come from other money managers. at fisher investments, we're clearly different. my name is tonya, i am 42. as mother of nine kids,

i think i waited this long to get botox® cosmetic because i take like no time for myself. my kids are sports kids. we're always running from one activity to another. i'm still tonya, and i got botox® cosmetic, and this is like the first thing i've done for me in a really, really long time. my life is still crazy, it's just as full as it was before. just with less lines. botox® cosmetic is fda approved to temporarily make frown lines, crow's feet, and forehead lines look better. the effects of botox® cosmetic may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. alert your doctor right away, as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems, or muscle weakness may be a sign of a life-threatening condition. do not receive botox® cosmetic if you have a skin infection. side effects may include allergic reactions, injection site pain, headache, eyebrow, eyelid drooping, and eyelid swelling. tell your doctor about your medical history. muscle or nerve conditions, and medications including botulinum toxins. as these may increase the risk of serious side effects. see for yourself at botoxcosmetic.com

jpmorgan chase's ceo jamie

dimon says the u.s. economy is likely to be in a recession by next year, and thursday's higher than expected inflation data piles on the concerns. could we be headed to stagflation of the 1970s? joining me now is the author of "homecoming, the path to pros prosperity." welcome. let's first talk about the prospects for a recession. how likely do you think this is? >> i think it's pretty likely. and look, recessions are normal. this is the thing, we have sort of forgotten that they are supposed to happen every five, seven years, because of monetary policy, low rate, you know, a lot of easy money after the financial crisis. policymakers have stretched out the business cycle, and we have all gotten used to the idea that recession, it's natural.

>> what do you think is going to happen with inflation? because the number was not just high, but it was surprisingly high, over 8%. >> yeah, the thing that really stood out for me was housing within that. really huge housing bubble in this country. again, housing is the epicenter of all the easy money being pushed into the system. you have bubbles and the pandemic. people work from home. you have bubbles in mplaces tha we've never had them. add in higher interest rates, and the cost of a mortgage on an average home is up about 50% year on year. so that's what i'm thinking about. >> now, one of the things you talk about in the book is how -- we're at an inflexion point, where the economy is going to change substantially. describe what that change is. >> we're talking about asset bubbles. about financial markets that are

so unmored from main street. and that's gone hand in hand with a certain kind of gl globalization within the last 40 years. it was all about cheap capital from the u.s., and cheap energy, in particular russia going into europe. all those things are going away. so this is happening for a lot of reasons. there are geopolitical shifts. covid, war in ukraine. it's made us realize that it matter where is we get our energy. it matters where the supply chains are. even if we didn't have such a fractious politics globally, we are moving to a more localized economy for all kinds of reasons. the environment. you look at the emissions cost in transporting cheap goods around the world, and this is something that's changing as we move to a price on carbon at some point. you look at the new technologies like added manufacturing that can allow you to make an entire

tesla or an entire home locally. these are things people are concerned about now. >> so you outline all these reasons very well. the thing i'm struck by, if this is going to be a war which cheap is not that important, efficiency is not that important, that's by nature structurally inflationary. so are we entering a world where we're going to be living in a world of inflation, because people are paying extra for national security, for the environment. that's inflationary. >> it's true, cheap isn't cheap. it's never been cheap for workers or the environment. but you're right, as supply chains become more resilient, sell mi conductors, this is ultimately a good thing, because it doesn't make sense to have

92% of all chips produced in taiwan. but yeah, that's capital expenditure and inflationary. what i would argue, though, is over the mid to longer term, this is going to take us to a place where we have a more balanced economy. if you look just in the u.s. at this idea that cheaper televisions in walmart, cheaper products are somehow going to make up for the fact that there are flat or stagnant wages, it hasn't worked out. all the things that make us middle class have been rising triple at core inflation. >> if you add to the fact that your clothes and your boots are also getting more expensive, look, for people well off, you go into a walmart and goods are 25% more expensive, they don't notice. but for somebody making $25,000 a year, there's a reason that inflation has political instability.

unemployment only affects the people unemployed and their families. inflation hits everyone, and it hits the poor the hardest. will they be willing to pay for all these things you're describing? because that's the question. >> i think, fareed, that if it is made clear, and i think the biden administration is doing a pretty good job making clear we're shifting to a work not wealth mantra. we have to create an economy based on more than just asset bubbles. so yes, if there is a clear message we're in a bumpy period, the world is not flat, we'll get through this together and bolster labor when we do sign new trade deals. we're going to think differently, yeah, we can make it there. >> always a pleasure. next on "gps," we'll tell you about an election to be held in the coming week where is one of the candidates has already alleged vote fraud. i'm not talking about the united states, i'm not talking about a senate race. i'm talking about brazil's presidential contest.

that story when we come back. think he's posting about all that ancient roman coinage? no, he's seizing the moment with merrill. moving his money into his t in real time and that's.. how you colleccoins. your money never stops working foyou with merrill, a bank oamerica company. bubbles bubbles so many bubbles! as an expedia member you earn points on your travels, and that's on top of your airline miles. so you can go and see... or taste or do absolutely nothing with all those bubbles. without ever wondering if you're getting the most out of your trip. because you are. your record label is taking off.

but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire life... doesn't stop for diabetes. be ready for every moment, with glucerna. it's the number one doctor recommended brand that is scientifically designed to help manage your blood sugar. live every moment. glucerna.

my asthma felt anything but normal. a blood test helped show my asthma is driven by eosinophils, which nucala helps reduce. nucala is a once-monthly add-on injection for severe eosinophilic asthma. nucala is not for sudden breathing problems. allergic reactions can occur. get help right away for swelling of face, mouth, tongue, or trouble breathing. infections that can cause shingles have occurred. don't stop steroids unless told by your doctor. tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. may cause headache, injection site reactions, back pain, and fatigue. ask your asthma specialist about a nunormal with nucala. ♪

what will you do? ♪ what will you change? ♪ will you make something better? ♪ will you create something entirely new? ♪ our dell technologies advisors provide you with the tools and expertise you need to do incredible things. because we believe there's an innovator in all of us. >> tech: at safelite, we take care of vehicles with the latest technology. when my last customer discovered a crack in his car's windshield, he scheduled at safelite.com. safelite makes it easy. we're the experts at replacing your glass... ...and recalibrating your advanced safety system. >> customer: and they recycled my old glass. now that's a company i can trust. >> tech: don't wait. schedule today. ♪ pop rock music ♪ >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪

the western hemisphere's second largest democracy may be on shaky political ground. earlier this month, brazilians voted in a presidential election where two candidates from the far sides of the political spectrum were pitted against each other. the right wing incumbent bolsinaro versus the leftist desilva, popularly known as louie. for months, bolsinaro questioned brazil's voting. both candidates have been seen wearing bullet proof vests in public. now the election goes to a runoff because neither garnered a majority in the first round.

so where will this lead? we have the perfect person to answer that question, his latest book is "the revenge of power, how autocrats are reinventing politics for the 21st century." welcome. >> hi, fareed, thank you. >> when you look at this campaign so far, moises, what strikes you as most interesting? because it's been a pretty raucous, chaotic campaign with a lot of rhetoric thrown around. give us your sense of what was most striking about it. >> how conflicted, polarized, divided is the country. how voting and elections -- around the world we have these elections we end up with not a unified nation but a deeply divided nation, and we have the numbers to show how divided it is.

it shows how deeply brazil has changed. for example, evangelical christians a decade ago were single digits in terms of the pop population, now they are a third. and they vote and they are active supporters of bolsinaro, and they are values kind of voters. so that's the deep change that's taken place in brazil is a very important factor. >> in this election, it does seem to me that you have a left-wing populist against a right-wing populist. but in most places in latin america right now, it's the left-wing guys winning. why do you think that is? >> well, the pandemic, you know, covid is surely one. the people are frustrated and whoever was in power during the

covid pandemic is blamed, fairly or unfairly. a bad economy, high inflation, frustration, disappointment with the politicians. the anti-politics moffitt, you know, i don't believe in anything, in anyone. they are all crooks, throw them away. that is a strong sentiment around the region, and around the world, by the way. >> you pointed out the rise of the evangelical movement in brazil. one of the things that strikes me as different about brazil is tell me if i'm right, it's quite a conservative country in many ways. and bolsinaro is tapping into that. >> this is a country, 70% of the country is against legalizing marijuana or legalizing abortion. a large plurality is against

same-sex. so brazil now has a very substantial voting bloc that thinks along those lines, and it's quite, again, i have to stress how profound a change this is to what brazil used to be. >> in your new book, which is terrific, you talk about how this moment has become so dangerous because of the erosion of democracy by these populist autocrats, by dictators who understand how to play the game of populism. and that seems to be to be something you see very clearly in many parts of latin america, but particularly in brazil with ba bolsinaro. >> we're seeing rampant populism. the essence of populism is there an elite that exploits the noble

people and there is a charismatic leader defending the people being exploited by these elites. so populism is that, but then it gets super charged bipolarization, by identity politics. what defines you with who you believe will be a better leader of the country. and, again, then you -- not knowing who to believe, what to believe, social media, and all that that fuels the polarization, that in turn powers populists. again, this is rampant in latin america. >> pleasure to have you on. >> thank you, fareed. next on "gps," it's been so inspiring to watch the protestors in iran. but the question we keep coming back to, will they succeed?

we're going to look at some data that might give us a clue, when we come back. & bath fitter. if you have a "before" bath, now's the time t to call bath fitter to get a beautiful "afteter." with our unique tub over tub process, there's no mess or stress. spend smart on a beautiful new bath done right, backed by a lifetime warranty. join over 2 million happy customers who know: it just fits. bath fitter visit bathfitter.com to book your free consultation. ♪ ♪ avoiding triggers, but still get migraine attacks? qulipta™ can help prevent migraine attacks. qulipta gets right to work. keeps attacks away over time. qulipta is a preventive treatment for episodic migraine. most common side effects a pr are nausea,atment constipation, antiredness. ask your doctor about qulipta. i brought in ensure max protein with 30 grams of protein. those who tried me felt more energy in just two weeks. uhh - here, i'll take that woo hoo ensure max protein, with 30 grams of protein, 1 gram of sugar and now in two new flavors (♪ ♪)

migraine hits hard, so u hit back with ubrelvy u level up u won't take a time-out one dose of ubrelvy works fast it can quickly stop migraine in its tracks within 2 hours without worrying if it's too late or where you are unlike older medicines, ubrelvy is a pill that directly blocks a protein believed to be a cause of migraine. do not take with strong cyp3a4 inhibitors. most common side effects were nausea and tiredness. migraine pain relief starts with u learn how abbvie could help you save. ask about ubrelvy, the anytime, anywhere migraine medicine.

the chef's chicken sandwiches at panera, freshly prepared with clean ingredients... spark an explosion of the senses. so when you finally taste it, it just confirms... this. is. fantastic. and only at panera. $1 delivery fee on our app.

and now for the last look. the protests raging in iran have been deeply inspiring, sparked by women demonstrating against the repression of a brutal regime, that's made control over women and their bodies a central tenant of its rule. as "the new york times" notes, the protests have spread to include oil workers who have taken to the streets shouting slogans like "death to the dictator." this is powerful stuff. but are the regime's days numbered? in a fascinating piece in "the new york times," max fisher notes two puzzling trends. all over the world we are seeing a rise in protests. but this rise in frequency does

not appear to correlate in a rise in efficacy. in fact, quite the opposite. mass protests are now more likely to fail than at any point in the past century. this comes from a group of harvard scholars who maintain a data set of protests that have either sought to change a regime or to gain territorial independence between 1900 and 2021. that data shows that the number of such non-violent protests have grown dramatically in the past 20 years. many of these demonstrations were remarkable. the arab spring, for example, or the protest against belarus' brutal dictator. the harvard statistics show that of those protests initiated in the '90s, 64% succeeded. of the protests initiated between 2010 and 2019, just 42% succeeded.

and of the protests that began in 2020 and '21, just 8% succeeded in their aims, though that data is partial. what is behind this striking drop? perhaps the most illuminating place to look is the rise of social media. it's easier than ever to watch an explosion of anger. just go online. but as fisher writes, it's become easier to organize discontent on social media, the traditional organizing that ice historically led to change has weakened everywhere. the truth is, street protests are just one piece of a multiprong strategy required to affect change. the others involve forging alliances with other groups with overlapping aims and meeting and pressuring political elites. the scholar samuel huntington pointed out the key to democratic change was to induce cracks within the ruling elite. achieving regime change or

significant democratic reform needs more than just likes on facebook or even bodies on the street. it needs effective organization and sustained strategizing. historically, major successful protest movements came with an almost military level of organization and hierarchy. take one surprising example. the civil rights movement of the 1950s and '60s. as malcolm gladwell explained in 2010, that movement was not some spontaneous call to justice, but a challenge to the establishment, mounted with precision and discipline. central to success was the black church, which had a very hire as arkal structure. hierarchy, not decentralized democracy, is what is required to effect systemic change.

look at the montgomery busboy cot in the '50s. when rosa parks was arrested for not going to the back of the bus, black churches publicized a boycott to be held on december 5, 1955. about 40,000 people in montgomery refused to take the bus that day. this protest lasted for over a year. a young charismatic pastor named martin luther king, jr. emerged as the leader. to encourage sustained participation, the boycott's organizers had local black churches work on keeping up morale and arranged a free car pool service. black cab drivers were compelled to charge black passengers just ten cents a ride. eventually it led to the supreme court's 1956 portion that bus segregation was illegal. in a broader sense, the passage of the voting rights act never would have happened without the years of back room meetings

between martin luter king, jr., and linden johnson. this marks a new reality as one of the scholars who maintains the database writes. non-violent protests now no longer has a statistically significant advantage over armed insurrection in terms of achieving systemic change in the country. let me be clear, that does not tell us much about iran. individual countries can always be exceptions to a trend. but the trend is a troubling one. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. and i will see you next week. you may be missing a criticalal piece. preservision. preservision areds 2 contains ththe only clinically proven nutrtrient formula recommendedy the national eye institute to help reduce the risk of moderate to advanced amd progression. "preservision is backed by 20 years of clinical studies" "and its from the eye experts at bausch and lomb"

so, ask your doctor about adding preservision. and fill in a missing piece of your plan. like i did with preservision" ♪ you see that? that's when i realized i'm ready to start my own place. ye, i'm really excited. alright, that sounds great. so i'm making plans for right now. ♪ like going back to my roots and opening my own restaurant. ♪ start your plan today with a northwestern mutual financial advisor and spend your life living. ♪ if you have advanced non-small cell lung cancer, your first treatment could be a chemo-free combination of two immunotherapies that works differently.

it could mean a chance to live longer. opdivo plus yervoy is for adults newly diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer that has spread, tests positive for pd-l1, and does not have an abnormal egfr or alk gene. together, opdivo plus yervoy helps your immune system launch a response that fights cancer in two different ways. opdivo plus yervoy equals a chance for more time together. more family time. more time to remember. opdivo and yervoy can cause your immune system to harm healthy parts of your body during and after treatment. these problems can be severe and lead to death. see your doctor right away if you have a cough; chest pain; shortness of breath; irregular heartbeat; diarrhea; constipation; severe stomach pain, nausea or vomiting; dizziness; fainting; eye problems; extreme tiredness; changes in appetite, thirst or urine; rash; itching; confusion; memory problems; muscle pain or weakness; joint pain; flushing; or fever. these are not all the possible side effects. problems can occur together and more often when opdivo is used with yervoy. tell your doctor about all medical conditions including immune or nervous system problems, if you've had or plan to have an organ or stem cell transplant, or received chest radiation. here's to a chance to live longer.

ask your doctor about the combination of two immunotherapies, opdivo plus yervoy. thank you to all those in our clinical trials. (vo) get the new iphone 14 pro on us. right now t-mobile is including apple business essentials so you can easily manage your team's devices. on the network with more 5g coverage. only from t-mobile for business. mission control, we are go for launch. ♪ um, she's eating the rocket. ♪ lunchables! built to be eaten. ♪